Guest Opinion: Dr. Tim Ball
My last article chastised leaders for their apparent inability to understand or even question the evidence that shows CO2 is causing global warming. I can understand the reluctance to express public opinions about such a complex scientific issue, especially coming from the UN and with such universal acceptance. Well, here are easily understood facts from the UN reports that allow anyone to express public opposition to the world view on global warming. When you consider them, you will understand why so many experts happily identify as global warming deniers.
Greenhouse gases are approximately 6% of the total atmosphere. Water vapour is 95% of that total, and CO2 is only 4%. That means CO2 is only 0.04% of the total atmosphere. Water vapour varies a great deal in volume and location than any other gas, so estimates of changing volume are poorly measured or understood. It is probable that a 2% variation in water vapour, which is not uncommon, equals all the effects of CO2 on global temperature. The reality is we don’t know. In light of these observations consider the improbable precision of claims made for CO2 induced global warming.
There are no useful measurements of global temperature. We only have temperature measurements for approximately 15% of the earth’s surface. Everything you read about are computer model estimates; there is no empirical data to support the warming claims. Indeed, all of the computer model estimates of global temperature that began in 1990 have been wrong. Recent research shows all the models consistently overestimate future temperatures. The fascinating point is that even with these exaggerations, their forecasts pose no threat to anyone or anything.
Based on contrived pseudoscience that isolated CO2 as 95% of the cause of global warming since 1950, the UN created the Kyoto Protocol as policy action. A major player in the pseudoscience and political creation was Tom Wigley in his role as Director of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) based at the University of East Anglia. In 1998, he estimated that even if Kyoto were to be 100% successful in meeting its targets, it would only reduce temperatures by an estimated 0.05 degrees Celsius by 2050. Since Wigley was and is a strong supporter of Kyoto, this was a significant admission. Kyoto was a crazy waste of money, and the only politicians who did a true cost/benefit analysis were the US Senate. They avoided a direct vote on Kyoto by asking, in the Byrd/Hagel resolution, if the application to only developed nations was fair and what impact on US jobs and economy would eventuate. They voted 95-0 against approving Kyoto. It didn’t matter. Kyoto was exposed when emails of major players who produced the science reports leaked from the CRU.
Within two years they introduced a full replacement called the Green Climate Fund (GCF) through the UN process. The GCF was scheduled for and received ratification at the Paris Climate Agreement in 2015. Here is what statistician and climate specialist Bjorn Lomborg says would happen with implementation of the entire GCF program.
“If we measure the impact of every nation fulfilling every promise by 2030, the total temperature reduction will be 0.048°C (0.086°F) by 2100.
Even if we assume that these promises would be extended for another 70 years, there is still little impact: if every nation fulfills every promise by 2030 and continues to fulfill these promises faithfully until the end of the century, and there is no ‘CO₂ leakage’ to non-committed nations, the entirety of the Paris promises will reduce temperature rises by just 0.17°C (0.306°F) by 2100.”
A complete application of the Paris Climate Agreement would achieve virtually nothing, but even that is not happening. The United States canceled its involvement, and the GCF is receiving virtually no other money. Hopefully, world leaders will realize that they don’t need to do anything, and that is a secure and logical path.