Ithaca, NY–Using data on 77 North American migratory bird species from the eBird citizen-science program, scientists at the Cornell Lab of Ornithology say that, in as little as four decades, it may be very difficult to predict how climate change will affect migratory bird populations and the ecosystems they inhabit. Their conclusions are presented in a paper published in the journal Ecography.
“Climates have natural variation and we’re moving rapidly into territory where the magnitude of climate change will consistently exceed this variation,” says lead author and Cornell Lab researcher Frank La Sorte. “There will be no historic precedent for these new climates, and migratory bird populations will increasingly encounter ‘novel’ climatic conditions. The most likely outcome will be a period of ecological disruption as migratory birds and other species try to respond or adapt to these new conditions.”
Cornell Lab scientists generated new climate models incorporating multiple sources of data. This produced a timeline indicating when and where migratory bird populations are likely to be significantly affected by novel climates during each phase of their annual life cycles. It’s not that far off:
-
- — Last 40 to 50 years of this century. During this period, migrants such as the Black-and-white Warbler, are likely to first experience novel climates on their tropical wintering grounds (regions south of Florida) and also during the late summer on their breeding grounds in the North American temperate zone (above the nation’s midsection).
— First 50 years of the next century. This is when novel climates are likely to emerge for birds that winter in the subtropics–the southern half of the U.S.
The study authors conclude that by the middle of the next century migratory bird populations will experience novel climates during all phases of their annual life cycles.
La Sorte and co-authors considered minimum and maximum temperatures, and precipitation in the Western Hemisphere, week by week, for 280 years, from 2021 through 2300, under the worst-case scenario: continued high levels of greenhouse gas emissions. La Sorte says this is the first study to use a combination of climate variables to estimate when novel climates will first emerge, and it is the first study to examine the full annual cycle implications for a large number of migratory bird species.
“It’s not surprising that novel climates will be first encountered in the tropics,” says La Sorte. “There’s little variation in tropical climates, so even a small change in climate can generate highly novel conditions. It is surprising to find that on these species’ breeding grounds, novel climates will emerge roughly 40 to 50 years earlier during the second half of the breeding season. This is a critical phase of these species’ life cycle when adult and juvenile birds are transitioning from breeding to migration.”
The three data sources used for the study were 13 years of observations from the eBird program (2004-2016), climate projections from the most recent International Panel on Climate Change report, and NOAA data used to estimate climatic variation over a 60-year period. What constitutes a “novel” climate will depend on each region’s historical norms for that season.
“One reason we are considering novel climates is that current ecological projections under climate change tend to be unrealistic,” explains La Sorte. “We can’t reliably predict how birds or other species will respond to novel climates. In this study, we document when in the future this uncertainty is likely to become a significant factor that could adversely affect migratory bird populations.”
###
Reference:
Frank A. La Sorte, Daniel Fink, Alison Johnston (2019) Time of emergence of novel climates for North American migratory bird populations. Ecography.
This research was funded by The Leon Levy Foundation, The Wolf Creek Charitable Foundation, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, a Microsoft Azure Research Award, and the National Science Foundation.
From EurekAlert! Public Release: 5-Mar-2019
“in as little as four decades, it may be very difficult to predict how climate change will affect migratory bird populations”
But right now it’s clear as day and easy as pie to predict.
Activism and science don’t mix because activism corrupts science. Pls see …
https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/02/03/hidden-hand/
Dang it chaamjamal, that’s what I was going to say!
We better get more funding to them stat, while it’s still easy to predict how climate change will affect migratory bird populations and the ecosystems they inhabit.
YouFreakAlot! never fails to amuse.
Yes sir. Funding is the key.
So climate models tuned to best fit 1960-1990 period are extapolated 200 years hence. That is total BS scientifically but is great to ensure more funding.
Clear where their priorities lie.
Chaamjamal
What they fail to say is that those changes might be entirely positive, or a mix of positive and negative.
Having said that I didn’t read the paper so they might have done.
Interesting point sir. But my experience is that in climate science uncertainty is interpreted as “omg look how bad it could be”
Aye.
a) Use of Models proven to be without without predictive ability.
b) Based upon assumptions of people convinced the world is doomed.
c) Producing results that are always based upon those dire “omg look how bad it can be” consequences which are often not within historical possibilities.
d) Researchers who claim knowledge and prediction inabilities unchanged over decades.
e) While utterly ignoring eco-silly solutions extremely deadly to migratory birds.
Yes, they seem to have omitted to do a 200y extrapolation of the growth of the wind industry. By that time most of the western hemisphere will be covered in wind turbines as close as they can be packed and there will be no safe migratory routes left.
Or maybe that was the “novel environment” they were meaning.
Sorry HS – positive outcomes are not allowed from climate change.
If you’re doing a study at one our multitude of universities, of what is happening with climate, or could happen in the future, and you come across something that might be to the benefit of the earth, or humanity, or the environment, you’ve made a mistake. You have to go back and run your models again, and keep doing that until you get a pending disaster. Then you can feel a sense of pride because you’ve earned your pay. And you can relax because you can get your work published in Nature.
Migratory birds have survived glacial periods, the holocene climatic optimum* and magnetic reversals. But those are natural. A degree or two of warming that they can attribute to human activities – that’s got to have negative consequences,
* – now called the Holocene climatic maximum (“optimum” is a positive word and we can’t be positive about a time when it was warmer than today. Can we?
I’m impressed, Chaamjamal, that you know what it means.
I need more funding for bird food, myself. They are pigs.
The Canada geese have already found their way back. Two different people have told me they’ve arrived and are looking for nesting sites and food. The redwinged blackbirds also returned several days ago, and I have photos of them, as well as the common grackles, who were up in the maple trees to the west of me. I counted 26 of them, and put out food. They are all pigs!!!! All of them!!!
Birds go by the angle of the sun. If they didn’t, they woul not be flying north to my turf in late February. Plenty of geese were around here on the rivers and smaller lakes already. With geese, as long as there is food, they won’t go any further south than they have to in the fall. I am looking forward to spring and summer, longer days and more time in the field with my camera.
I live in northern Virginia, Sara, and have been seeing Canada geese moving through for about two or three weeks. And yes, the redwinged blackbirds are back in force (and yes, they are pigs! When they show up, we go through a 40 pound bag of Audubon feed every two weeks, instead of every month). Haven’t seen the grackles yet, but it’s only a matter of time. We also have a pair of bald eagles in the neighborhood, who appear to have set up housekeeping nearby. All in all, we track 43 species, and they haven’t changed habits very much at all.
I imagine the growth of fire-balls from hell (solar farms) might have some unpredictable disruption for migratory birds too.
Not to mention the impact of hundreds of subsidy farms with bird killing windmills.
But who cares? After all people are making money from the subsidies what does killing a few million birds and bats matter?
Where is the supporting data indicating only a few million birds and bats are killed. Applying current green modeling techniques, my model indicates trillions have been killed and all will be gone in twelve years.
Still seems pretty predictable to me Steve. But in as little as four decades I may have totally lost my mind (or more likely will be dead), so maybe then the obvious will cease to be predictable.
as do wandering magnetic fields
Not to mention those wind powered bird grinding machines
In Europe covering vast acreages of otherwise usable land in wind turbines is having a devastating effect on all sorts of birds as well as bats, in addition to increasing evidence of serious ill health being imposed on people. Add the disruption to migratory birds and sea life from offshore turbines and the sheer stupidity of eco-loon policies becomes staggering. Even more staggering is the ability of the supporters of this colossal waste to close their minds to the reality of the catastrophe they have contrived.
It’s not that we even get any useful energy from this subsidy farming, a few odd days a year which generates hysteria from its advocates.
They could use wind farms as way-stations to guide them to their destination.
And make bird-puree out of them, too.
Because it’s easy to predict that in 40 years those windmills will be inoperative rusting statues nobody wants to waste money on removing.
By then, heroin addicts will have stolen all the copper from them anyway.
Make that less than half that period. They’ll be lucky to reach 15 years old never mind 40.
It is easy to predict the future disruption for migratory birds if the present rate of installation of wind turbines continues….there will be no migratory birds left at all.
it may be very difficult to predict how climate change will affect migratory bird populations
Does that not depend on the [number of] wind turbines to come?
No, it depends on much grant money can be extracted.
“…we’re moving rapidly into territory where the magnitude of climate change will consistently exceed this variation,” says lead author and Cornell Lab researcher Frank La Sorte. ”
I guess in the context of this particular computer game, that qualifies as birdshit.
+100
David Chappell
March 6, 2019 at 4:00 am
“…we’re moving rapidly into territory where the magnitude of climate change will consistently exceed this variation,” says lead author and Cornell Lab researcher Frank La Sorte. ”
I thought that had been the case all along, that CO2 driven global warming was completely overwhelming puny natural variation. No wonder they concentrate on children.
But there will always be House Sparrows, starlings and pigeons to brighten the urbanites days and decorate their belongings.
“One reason we are considering novel climates is that current ecological projections under climate change tend to be unrealistic,” explains La Sorte. “We can’t reliably predict how birds or other species will respond to novel climates. In this study, we document when in the future this uncertainty is likely to become a significant factor that could adversely affect migratory bird populations.”
Seems like Frank LaSort fundamentally does not understand what uncertainty is and how it propagates forward in time in any model. The uncertainty is not affcting the bird populations, its affecting any ability of his to make a projection worth the paper its written on.
As a result it also appears he doesn’t appreciate the fact that his “consideration of novel climates” projections are also unrealistic.
But I’m sure he’ll keep applying for grants to study the issue.
What is sad is that Mr LaSort is probably fully on-board “fighting climate change” with its quest to install bird choppers covering the landscape horizon to horizon.
“As a result it also appears he doesn’t appreciate the fact that his “consideration of novel climates” projections are also unrealistic.”
You want realistic?? Holy guano, we’ll need a LOT more grant money for that.
I’m not surprised that they cannot reliably predict. Being able to predict reliably is one of the hallmarks of good science.
‘it may be very difficult to predict’
Read: whatever bird droppings I wrote, you can’t hold me responsible, but I’m trying to steal credit if I happen to guess the sign of some change right.
This week there were 3 Cormorants sitting by the pond in my neighborhood, fishing. I live 270 miles from the ocean and over 100 miles from the closest “natural” lake (there is only 1 in Texas) and if it wasn’t for man regulating flow, the rivers in North Texas dry up for months at a time. No way these 3 birds were “natural”.
Land use (man made lakes, regulated river flows), food sources (stocked lakes, feeders, agriculture) and UHI keeping the lakes from freezing over are the obvious reason there are fishing birds living happily on a small pond in a large city on the margin between the great plains and the western desert.
How in the world can a computer model see a “CO2 emissions”signal in the noise of the real world?
Likewise here in California the city parks are home for CANADIAN geese year-long. They’re supposed to fly back to Canada in the spring to nest and raise their young and fly back here in the fall. But some of them don’t, and soon we will see some young geese hatched locally. I’ve thought this was simply individual geese exercising their free will to opt out of migrating, perhaps after having done that once or twice. I doubt weather variations affects this choice.
Venus…. They are not Canadian geese they are Canada geese. Canadian would denote citizanship. They are not citizens of Canada.
“The three data sources used for the study were 13 years of observations from the eBird program (2004-2016),”
” Last 40 to 50 years of this century. ”
” First 50 years of the next century. ”
Honestly? No peer reviewer suggested that predicting stuff 20 to 130 years out based on 13 years of indicative but not complete real data is a f*****g stupid idea?
http://www.bishophill.com/admin/sidebar_images/1741759940_test.pdf
“peer reviewer”
Bwah! HAHAHAHA! Now that’s funny right there.
If it’s funny perhaps we should call it “Peer Revue”…
Sounds like a problem with scientists, NOT birds.
Perhaps they are all bird brains.
“Sounds like a problem with
scientistsactivists, NOT birds.”Fixed!
As others mentioned before, windmills will have a great effect one migratory birds, not randomly, but because the birds have long used routes where the wind is helping them. Unfortunately these routes coincide with the best places for wind power. The Lake Erie shore line in Ontario in particular has been studied in depth regarding this, but only after the fact. The idiot Premier McGuinty of Ontario and his puppet master Butts exempted these evil things from environmental assessments prior to installations.
Thank you Greg61
My sentiments exactly. Who would have suspected that migratory birds had the intelligence to choose tailwinds over headwinds on their route selection!
Cheers
Mike
Salute!
Not only do thse birds use favorable winds, but favorable temperatures. Oh yeah, length of the day plays a role.
Dem birds ain’t dumb.
During a tropical storm here one day that hit in October, the hummers that normally wait for a cold front to have a tailwind on their trip to Cancun were gathered about the feeders in whole squadrons and not fighting as normal. So after the eye passed they booked south with a 110 mph tailwind!! And in the spring when we get fronts coming thru they use the southerly wind ahead of the front to zoom up to Pennsylvania or Virginia or…
Thank God the Whoopers and geese usually fly well above the grinders in west Texas or the remaning flocks would be near extinction once again.
Gums sends…
P.S. I wonder if these guys have read stuff by Darwin and his ilk.
And NASA funding. We really need to disband NASA; it has long outlived any real usefulness.
I think Trump just needs to get them back on track.
Fly them to the moon…
In order to solve the reliability issue of migratory birds species response to Climates natural variation, they should propose to construct more windmills.
No more migratory birds species, no more climate responce reliability issue : problem solved.
If we put up as many “bird shredders” as the alarmists say we should no migration route will be safe for our little feathered friends.
Why report on something that’s unpredictable? Either study it enough to make sense of it or leave it alone! And no, I didn’t read past the title! Why should I? I have more productive things to do with my time: like sleep!!!
The unpredictability was the only point they were trying to make, because bad humans.
Ithaca KITH set two new daily record lows (by wide margins) in the past week and several more since the new year. At this pace, they are right. the doves and robins won’t come back.
More windmills. Bird problem solved.
They are setting up for something. Remember the shifting magnetic pole? A lot of theories say birds use the magnetic fields to figure out their destination. With the poles shifting, its likely to mess with those migration patterns. But they are going to blame it on climate change.
Not a problem. There is good evidence that young birds learn to associate the magnetic field with the night sky, so they know how the magnetic field points in an absolute sense. It would only be a problem if the magnetic pole shifts extremely fast.
You mean like this:https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/01/17/shifting-north-magnetic-pole-is-affecting-everything-from-cell-phones-to-submarines/
“— Last 40 to 50 years of this century. During this period, migrants such as the Black-and-white Warbler, are likely to first experience novel climates on their tropical wintering grounds (regions south of Florida) and also during the late summer on their breeding grounds in the North American temperate zone (above the nation’s midsection).”
So this is supposed to take place beginning about 2050?
I don’t think these guys got the latest memo. They must not know it is now alarmist policy to pretend that CAGW is taking place right now, in every thunderstorm and other weather event.
These guys need to get their propaganda straight with headquarters.
Thank you Greg61
My sentiments exactly. Who would have suspected that migratory birds had the intelligence to choose tailwinds over headwinds on their route selection!
Cheers
Mike
“There’s little variation in tropical climates, so even a small change in climate can generate highly novel conditions. It is surprising to find that on these species’ breeding grounds, novel climates will emerge roughly 40 to 50 years earlier during the second half of the breeding season. This is a critical phase of these species’ life cycle when adult and juvenile birds are transitioning from breeding to migration.”
___________________________________________________
Would be hard for birds to adapt to new environmental conditions in mere 50 years.
If thei’re green climate models birds.
For real existing birds there’s left the chance stemming from https://www.google.com/search?q=time+scale+bird+evolution&oq=time+scale+bird+evolution&aqs=chrome.
I live about 15 miles from that bastion of Eastern Progressivism known as Ithaca, NY.
This is the land of many bumper stickers, my favorite being….
“Ithaca NY-10 square miles surrounded by reality”
This study is on my “take a close look at” list.
The most significant thing is the final paragraph quoted ; “One reason we are considering novel climates is that current ecological projections under climate change tend to be unrealistic,” explains La Sorte. “We can’t reliably predict how birds or other species will respond to novel climates. In this study, we document when in the future this uncertainty is likely to become a significant factor that could adversely affect migratory bird populations.”
The authors have fooled themselves — the projections of the future climates (novel or not) themselves are far
more uncertain than the birds responses to them.
Kip,
This paper and the comments of the author Mr La Sorte are an example of how the junk-science of climate modelling (cargo cultism) is destroying scientific endeavors far and wide. This model cultism built of contrived paradigms has demolished rational thought across many diverse disciplines that try to intersect with the climate change establishment’s junk model projections. Climate pseudoscience is permeating this idea that future uncertainty and its expanding propagation can be calculated away and removed with enough observation of the present or better models.
The only thing long-term models can tell us is qualitatively how individual parameter changes interact with the whole, if assumptions that other things we cannot predict hold true or remain constant. But because in the real world, those others things do change becasue of complex coupling and thus assumptions are wrong, so that any attempt to make quantitative predictions beyond a short period are hopelessly bound to fail.
As to the ecology of the birds:
The birds live in the present. Their complex behavior is driven by:
– their immediate nutrition-metabolic responses in themselves,
– the food sources in the environment around them,
– hormonal changes that drives reproductive and nesting behaviors,
which are also on a biological clock, and
– genetic and epigenetic programming interacting with complex environmental cues (length of daylight, temperatures, food availability) that likely drives their seasonal migrations.
The birds don’t “care” or even have a notion about uncertainty of climate change. But it is their evolution and selection of the fittest that has given them the robust behavioral tools to adapt for countless millennia of dramatic climate change, change that happens in the present.
Future projecting and uncertainty is simply a human-contrived abstraction, a product of the evolution of our big brain and the cognition, long-term visual memory retention, and executive functions to process all of it provides. (The only other mammals where this future planning may exist is in marine mammals, becasue they like humans have evolved large brains, complex communications, and complex social structures, but their ability to manipulate their water environment is limited by their anatomy and inability to fashion tools. And tools are the bedrock of technology).
Our ability to abstract complex non-linear environments into the limited future has given us the ability to conquer every natural resource and environment we can imagine. But it is pure hubris to think we can build climate models and then animal behavior models from that out to 40-50 years and have predictions that mean anything. And the scientists who think they mean something are fooling themselves.
So here we have a supposed trained scientist (La Sorte), imagining birds reacting to environmental uncertainty, and then thinking his models can penetrate uncertainty out to 40 years to mean something. That is just a “wow”-level of inability to reason. It is a Destruction of the Age of Reason, and the very embodiment of Cargo Cult Science growing like an aggressive malignant,metastasizing cancer across all of science.
The could be the title and thesis of a book,
The Destruction of the Age of Reason.
– How the pseudoscience of climate model acceptance (or belief?) is infiltrating and destroying diverse science disciplines.
Destruction the Age of Reason (DAR) is a malignant, metastatic cancer on logic and reason that emanates from a nidus of the climate change modeling community. The failure to recognize the highly uncertain climate change model outputs is now penetrating multiple diverse science disciplines, disciplines which intersects with Earth’s climate. Combining DAR with the funding environment for most of the natural sciences, that is the intense competition for limited academic research funding, have created unreasonable belief systems that future uncertainty can be whisked away simply with “better” models and/or more data. Exploring this thesis delves into explaining and understanding the uncertainty monster in future projections, from climate to their biological systems interactions, in our non-linear, chaotic, fractal-based natural world.
=====
I Amazon searched and Google searched for a similar title. Found nothing.
“It may be very difficult to predict how climate change will affect migratory bird populations and the ecosystems they inhabit.”
The above quote may qualify as one of the most useless quotes in scientific history.
I have been peddling the theme of loss of reason, ever since I got on to this site. Once you commit to programming a virtual world that tries to imitate the real world, the scientist will without fail, start believing in his virtual world. And then he is exploring down a rabbit hole into Alice in Wonderland.
“their evolution and selection of the fittest that has given them the robust behavioral tools to adapt.”
_______________________________________________
in other words:
Living in paradise is not a challenge. What more do I want, in paradise.
The oyster opens the bowl to a crack. The ocean current brings food.
larger driven foreign bodies are neutralized with smooth pearl gloss.
what is “progress” needed for.
one day
the expulsion from paradise: Eve gives the apple to Adam:
Evolution starts with planting / harvesting apples for rising demand.
I literally stopped reading the above article after encountering this gem in the very first paragraph:
“. . . scientists at the Cornell Lab of Ornithology say that, in as little as four decades, it may be very difficult to predict how climate change will affect migratory bird populations and the ecosystems they inhabit.”
I will just observe that TODAY IT IS VERY DIFFICULT to predict how climate change will affect migratory bird populations and the ecosystems they inhabit.
As an aside, some morons have achieved public notoriety by asserting the world will end in 12 years due to the current rate of “climate change” (whatever that means), so we may not have 40 years to see if the Cornell Lab of Ornithology “scientists” stated anything meaningful.
Obviously, I refuse to be subjected to GIGO speculations, such as those in the above article.
Gordon Dressler
I laughed out loud at that statement.
In other words, ‘we can’t predict our predictions so we’ll predict we can’t predict our predictions’.
Utterly preposterous.
HotScot
..”In other words, ‘we can’t predict our predictions so we’ll predict we can’t predict our predictions’…”
Is that a quote from Sir Humphrey Appleby?
Cheers
Mike
In Twitter I have been put on the moron list, the science crackpot list and the climate change denier list. Judith Curry has been put on the list of climate pseudoskeptics. Wheeler and Zinke are the only 2 who have been put on the list of Science Liquidators, subject to prosecution when the greens come to power.
Twitter knows you pretty well.
Given the accelerating changes in the Earth’s magnetic field and the changing location of magnetic north, our little feathered friends have bigger problems then climate change, if their biological GPS becomes unreliable and they have no backup systems. On the positive side, the birds have survived magnetic field reversals in past and I am very sure they will survive such reversals in the future.
This is simply propaganda to counter all the bad press windmills get for chopping up birds.
“Migrants that winter in the subtropics are projected to encounter novel climates during the first half of the next century.” Gulf of Mexico will be entirely tropical before then, no need to migrate.
The new buzzword is ‘NOVEL.’ Never read anything in Ecography, but it is spin-off from Oikos, which had a decent history.
Possibly a better paper that they should have read first, how often do you see “weak predictor.” Open Access, unlike theirs. —“….niche breadth estimated at the regional level is a weak predictor of species’ global niche breadth and range size.”
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ecog.03495
HD Hoese
I suspect ‘Novel’ may be the new climate change.
The alarmists backed away from ‘Anthropogenic Global Warming’ to ‘Climate Change’ now it’s likely to be ‘Novel Climate’.
Catastrophic Novel Climate Change doesn’t have quite the same alarmist ring though.
“Climates have natural variation and we’re moving rapidly into territory where the magnitude of climate change will consistently exceed this variation,” Correct me if I’m wrong, but I think he’s saying the variation will exceed the variation…. Or is he saying the change in the variation will exceed the average….? Or is he saying the magnitude in the average variation will exceed the change….? And the change in the natural variation will be novel….? But highly novel…? But not until somewhere between 2100 to 2300…? And only under the worst-case scenario….? That may or – – may not adversely affect migratory bird populations….? Because they definitely can’t reliably predict how birds or other species will respond to novel climates. All this based on 13 years of observations?
And he calls himself a “scientist”???
GOOD LORD, WHERE HAVE WE GONE WRONG?!!?
Why do scientists not expect an evolutionary explosion?
Steve O
As Chamjamal pointed out, anything climate related is a calamity. Even global greening; evidently that can’t last as plant life ‘adapts’ to increased levels of atmospheric CO2 by rejecting it.
See how it works?
Just to give you all a bit of a laugh.
Scotland, one of the most beautiful countries in the world (well I am biased) with spectacular wild scenery and an abundance of wildlife including birds, is being gradually swamped with wind farms. Seriously, cross the border from Scotland to England and the proliferation is clear.
So now the SNP (Scottish Nationalist Party – left wing nutters who failed to wrest independence from the rest of the UK, but are still promising to despite no one giving a toss any longer) have embarked on covering the countryside with the things
The City of Edinburgh has decided to introduce a tourist tax (£1 a night per hotel room). Evidently people already paying for their rooms aren’t contributing enough to the local economy and are considered to be damaging the facilities they use. The facilities wouldn’t exist were there not tourists in the first place, but I digress.
Presumably one of the attractions promoted by Edinburgh will be for tourists to gaze across acres of lesser spotted wind turbines whilst they wend their way through the ‘pristine’ Scottish countryside.
I dare-say many visitors will decide not to return to pay the tourist tax, rather, they can stay in their own country and view the wind turbines there.
Make it up? You could not.
“There will be no historic precedent for these new climates”
I guess the Medieval Warm Period is now considered pre-history.
““Climates have natural variation and we’re moving rapidly into territory where the magnitude of climate change will consistently exceed this variation,” says lead author and Cornell Lab researcher Frank La Sorte. “There will be no historic precedent for these new climates, and migratory bird populations will increasingly encounter ‘novel’ climatic conditions. ”
Yeah, like the rampant temperature changes around the Little Dryas period were not radical. How stupid are these people? The biggest disruptor to migrating birds are the act of putting and turbines in the windy channels that birds instinctively use for faster travel during their migrations. You also have to get the north shore Mediterranean people to stop eating migrating song birds for snacks.
“There will be no historic precedent for these new climates, and migratory bird populations will increasingly encounter ‘novel’ climatic conditions.”
—————————————————-
Uhm, yeah, as MarkW said, how did they manage to adapt to the changes from the end of the last glaciation to the (much warmer than now) Holocene climate optimum? What about the quick changing climate into the Younger Dryas and out again? The increasing temps of the Minoan Warming followed by the cooling, the subsequent the Roman Warming and the Dark Ages cooling, the Medieval Warming followed by the Little Ice Age cooling don’t demonstrate that they’re perfectly adaptable to changing climate???
How did our society become so stupid that studies like these don’t get the authors laughed out of town?
If CO2 levels continue to rise birds trying to get off the ground will have to adapt, since a CO2 molecule at 0.0232 nano-meter is greater than an O2 molecule at 0.012 nano-meter.
“we’re moving rapidly into territory where the magnitude of climate change will consistently exceed this variation”
“There will be no historic precedent for these new climates”
“migratory bird populations will increasingly encounter ‘novel’ climatic conditions”
WARNING! WARNING! Bullshit and baseless assumptions detected!
“Cornell Lab scientists generated new climate models incorporating multiple sources of data.”
“The three data sources used for the study were 13 years of observations from the eBird program (2004-2016), climate projections from the most recent International Panel on Climate Change report, and NOAA data used to estimate climatic variation over a 60-year period.”
So, another “garbage in, garbage out” “modelbating” study.
Am I reading this right? Or is it the familiar (baseless) it’s worse than we thought?
“One reason we are considering novel climates is that current ecological projections under climate change tend to be unrealistic,” explains La Sorte. “We can’t reliably predict how birds or other species will respond to novel climates.
Is La Sorte suggesting that model “projections” are “unrealistic”?….surely not, the world has invested > $trillion on worthless wind and solar based on potentially “unrealistic projections”? Impossible, our guardians in government would never let that happen…/sarc
Every one of the species we are being warned will perish from global climate change…soon!…survived over AT LEAST the last 25,000 years when it was a lot warmer than today. And these scientists have to know this.
Funding of these ridiculous studies is all part of the “Academia-Big Government” alliance. Academia siphons off about half the funds (off the top)…and then makes sure the rest of the funds are used to support their socialist agendas. Do what we like, and there’s a lot more $$ available…fail to find what we want and you are out on the street with bad references.
The left always gravitates toward power…(government; academia)…where they are in positions to force the rest of us do what they want…AND MAKE US PAY FOR OUR OWN SUBJUGATION.
That is racketeering.
I have less loathing of the Mafia.
who writes that bollox?
I live on a main artic bird migration route.
In a month or so it turns to a full scale bird one way AUTOBAHN, then reverses in Autumn.
It never ceases to amaze me as I look up and see how those birds in their 100s of 1000s know innately when to go, where to fly, where to stop and then lay eggs 10m away from where their parents did after flying for 1000s of kms.
They know an awful lot more about the weather, the winds and the minute changes in magnetic fields than we will ever know and don’t need either GPS nor super computers to tune their instincts for summer feeding in the 24/24 summer artic sunshine, then return to the right places for winter.
I seem to detect a severe cognitive dissonance between those creature’s small but powerful intelligence of millenia, and so called modern man with his so called large brains turned to arrogance and stupidity in a matter of a mere decade & of a scale rarely witnessed in human history.
The tropics/subtropics to boreal/north temperate migration in spring and reverse in autumn of so many different bird species is one of the most impressive biological phenomena that I am aware of. We have nothing so impressive in Australia – a few tropical species like the Channel-bill Cuckoo descend on Australia in the spring (and impose their shrieking offspring on the local magpies and crows) and a few montane birds move down into the lowlands in the autumn and back up the hills in the spring. I suspect our migrations have been going on for quite a long time – but the Northern Hemisphere migrations? Go back a mere 12,000 years and where exactly would all of those bird species have migrated to? The end of the last glacial epoch opened up a vast area for colonisation and hundreds of different bird species seem to have taken advantage of it quite rapidly. What makes anyone think they can’t handle a longer breeding season – if and when it shows up?