Guest essay by Eric Worrall
They can’t help themselves, their models predict a level of warming which would melt most of the snow.
Is skiing dead due to global warming?
Dear EarthTalk: With the onset of global warming, how likely is it that ski resorts and skiing itself might soon become a thing of the past?
— Mandy Billings, Provo, UT
Last winter’s low snow year and unseasonably warm temperatures across much of the American West meant a bad year for business for some ski resorts, and also left many of us wondering whether skiing would even be possible in the warmer world we’re getting as we continue to pump out greenhouse gases.
“Our recent modeling suggests that under a high emissions scenario, skiing could be very limited to non-existent in parts of the country by the end of this century, particularly in lower elevations — such as the northeast, Midwest and lower mountains around the West,” says Cameron Wobus, lead author on a 2017 study projecting climate change impacts on skiing across the U.S. “Things look better mid-century, so this dire future for skiing isn’t imminent — and things also look much better under a more aggressive greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, so this future also isn’t inevitable.”
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The abstract of Wobus’ 2017 report;
Projected climate change impacts on skiing and snowmobiling: A case study of the United States
Cameron Wobus, Eric E. Small, Heather Hosterman, David Mills, Justin Stein, Matthew Rissing, Russell Jones, Michael Duckworth, Ronald Hall, Michael Kolian, Jared Creason, Jeremy Martinich
We use a physically-based water and energy balance model to simulate natural snow accumulation at 247 winter recreation locations across the continental United States. We combine this model with projections of snowmaking conditions to determine downhill skiing, cross-country skiing, and snowmobiling season lengths under baseline and future climates, using data from five climate models and two emissions scenarios. Projected season lengths are combined with baseline estimates of winter recreation activity, entrance fee information, and potential changes in population to monetize impacts to the selected winter recreation activity categories for the years 2050 and 2090. Our results identify changes in winter recreation season lengths across the United States that vary by location, recreational activity type, and climate scenario. However, virtually all locations are projected to see reductions in winter recreation season lengths, exceeding 50% by 2050 and 80% in 2090 for some downhill skiing locations. We estimate these season length changes could result in millions to tens of millions of foregone recreational visits annually by 2050, with an annual monetized impact of hundreds of millions of dollars. Comparing results from the alternative emissions scenarios shows that limiting global greenhouse gas emissions could both delay and substantially reduce adverse impacts to the winter recreation industry.
Read more: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016305556
I suspect the repeated absurd “end of snow” predictions, regularly switched to claims that global warming causes MORE snow and colder winters whenever the Northern Hemisphere gets a good dump, will be the final undoing of the climate movement.
It is just too obvious that they appear to be making it up as they go.
Climate Scientists give fortune tellers credibility.
Funny thing, 2017-18 ski season in the French alps was one of the most marvellous delicious experiences in years.
It started a little earlier than usual, fantastic quality, and finished in Val Thorens on the 7-9th may as of every year.
End of snow?
You gotta be kidding, 2018 to descend the vallee blanche – on the glacier, was some of the best summer skiing conditions in decades!
As for Russia, it was so cold this summer & last summer, they begin to call it “green winter”.
I see “whingeatronic syndrome”.
The assumption of the climate models must be that rising CO2 forcing will effectively reduce negative Arctic Oscillation conditions. Though the AO observations show that since 2009, there have been a number of extreme negative monthly AO values not seen since the last solar minimum in the late 1800’s. With corresponding regional land cold and snow records of around 130 years. And that is despite the rise in greenhouse gases and the rise in the global mean surface temperature. The whole conceptual framework of changes in GHG forcing driving strong circulation changes that effect regional weather patterns is a fiction, primarily due to a lack of knowledge of how short term solar variability controls the cold shots. The second half of this November turning negative AO/NAO was on my long range solar forecast, see how the coronal hole streams weakened off from mid November:
http://www.solen.info/solar/coronal_holes.html
I’ve been skiing 70-100+ days per year for decades and I call BS. If anything, the storms in the Sierra seem to be getting colder as we have seen a larger fraction of light dry snow then the Sierra cement we are so famous for. This year, we actually lucked out a bit and got some rain on the first snowfall to help glue it down to the rocks.
Snow even persists in North facing bowls throughout the Sierras’s all summer long and since the end of the drought 3 years ago, the summer snow pack has been steadily increasing. I was even skiing snow fields in October that have usually completely melted away by mid August and last year was only about average snow fall.
To me, the ground truth matters more than what some hyperventilating pundits without a clue say.
All the snow didn’t melt during the 1930’s, and it was hotter then than it is now. In fact. although it was extremely hot during the decade of the 1930’s, there were also record cold spells during that period, too. The worst of both worlds.
And then things cooled off and we are now experiencing some of the best weather in memory.
Meanwhile, the Alarmists are in a panic over nothing. They have convinced themselves CO2 is dangerous even though all the evidence is to the contrary.
I guess we are all seeing just how strong delusions can be in some people. They hang on like their lives depend on their delusion being true.
I understand: Your delusions get destroyed, and *then* what do you do?
Answer: Modify your worldview. Obviously it is flawed. It is not serving you well.
Resorts on Colorado opened 2-3 weeks early this year. I’ve been getting snow at 6600′ since Oct 10th.
Starting with 2007 with a meeting on Mt. Washington, The Union of Confused Scientists have been telling the state legislatures in the northeast that runaway warming was threatening the ski industry and the warming would also cause maple trees to pack up and move north to Canada ending the Maple Sugar Industry. That winter set all-time record snowfall in Ski country from Alaska to Oregon, Utah, Wisconsin and New England. But they kept up with their press releases repeating that mantra. We responded to one in 2014 here that included that claim – https://thsresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/12/UNH-PRESS-RELEASE-REPORT-BY-SCIENTISTS-Update-081815-2-1.pdf – I debated a UCS enviro from UNH a few years later. He said he was a data guy not a modeler but spent his hour presenting data from the models. When I showed that the east has had more snow that any other decade back to the 1870s, one 6 foot 4 inch state rep said it could not be when he was a boy, snow used to reach his knees. I asked him if he was 6 foot 4 inch as a boy?
Herb Stevens, one of the Weather Channel Pioneers and the “Skiing Weatherman’ rebutted the claim here:
https://thsresearch.files.wordpress.com/2018/10/ac-rebuttal-snow-101518.pdf this year.
Very strange – why would the most conscientious environmental scientists care about the cessation of the very carbon intensive and totally unnecessary activity of skiing/boarding in the mountains? Oh yeah I forgot – they are working for the wealthy elite liberals who will remain on earth to enjoy the spoils when the rest of us have been cleansed into oblivion after a short painful life in the cold dark eating nothing but expired organic micro greens. Needless to say, they will want to have a nice relaxing ski , and a dip in the hot tub after their hard work destroying human society.
Many ski resorts have been around for 50 years or more and keep extremely detailed records of snowfall. It might be helpful to the authors of this silly opinion piece to look at what is really happening.
I suppose facts have nothing to do with it though.
https://www.alta.com/conditions/weather-observations/snowfall-history
Hyping speculation pays more than reporting facts for alarmist ‘scientists’ and political hacks.
Ummm, global warming should increase the amount of moisture in the troposphere, which should increase the amount of precipitation, including snow in those areas normally in the “snow belt” where the global warming will show mostly as increased night time lows, and a couple of days earlier springtime and later fall. And a move North of the “snow belt” by 70 miles or so. Not really Climageddon.
“It is just too obvious that they appear to be making it up as they go.”
They don’t make it up as they go, that’s beyond their abilities, they recycle the worn-out alarmism as they go…towards scientific oblivion.
What needs to end is the CAGW snow-job. And we can’t wait a hundred years for that to happen
“…and future climates, using data from five climate models and two emissions scenarios…”
Were any of these climate models validated?
Calibrated?? Certified??? No……
The Climate Change ‘long con’ doesn’t depend on certified science! It depends on greed and gullibility.
The main reason I see why people might stop skiing isn’t because of global warming, climate change or lack of snow. The main reason I see is that skiing, in Australia at least, is so flipping expensive. Ski hire, lift passes, accommodation, eating out, drinks you name it, it’s expensive in the skiing areas in Australia so much so many people go to New Zealand. And there is the irony, those skiers *fly* to NZ to get to the, better, ski areas.
There must be thousands of these videos, here is one.
How many “scientists” does it take to run a water and energy balance model? Apparently twelve. I can’t imagine the grant money needed to support a team that large? I need to be more imaginative, I guess (or should that be model?).
Speaking of social costs…
Snow is a very costly substance. A fleet of plows, tens of thousands of tons of salt, glycol, millions in insurance claims, an entire and very expensive structure has to be deployed every time it strikes.
As usual in all green claims, follow the money, there’s always a bunch of happy contractors where it goes.
If the prediction is true or not, fact is that at least in Europe many professional skiers and similar sports massively abandoned their favorite snowy spots which served as such for decades because of a lack of regular snow fall. Perhaps not every year but they like their Olympic training grounds a bit more, like: predictable. This has everything to do with constancy, long-running averages, old and new snow packs and so on. Real parameters for those living professionally. Personally I trust those opinions more than a climate model or any competing, doubting model. And the opinion in the world of winter sports appears to be undivided and uniform: skiing is for them becoming more limited at many places over the last decade without end in sight.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-46596070
“But in recent years it’s been difficult here. The smooth, deep snow required to run the dogs at full strength is late to arrive.
John Gaedeke has lived in Alaska his entire life and runs high-end holidays in the mountains to the North of the state. Mountain sports, dog sledding and running snow-mobiles are par for the course, but he’s seen big changes in recent years.
“Safe winter travel occurs later each year, in some communities rivers may never freeze,” he says.
“Our trails across frozen tundra are developing sink holes as the ice lenses below the tussocks melt and deform. The shorter winters mean hotter, longer summers with more wildfire danger, which only makes the problem worse.””
Meanwhile in the Arctic, glaciers in the Svalbard and Barents Sea region have advanced by 16 km during 2008-2016:
http://notrickszone.com/2018/12/20/arctic-glaciers-advanced-16-km-during-2008-2016-in-a-region-that-was-6c-warmer-9000-years-ago/
Arctic ice loss could be going into reverse.