Guest basic geology by David Middleton
2020, 2030, 2050, 2100… Whatever… It will flood… Climate Central assures us it will flood.
Amazon’s HQ2 site in Long Island City, Queens could be flooded in the next 30 years. Here’s what scientists predict for the headquarters.
Aria Bendix Nov. 14, 2018
Scientists have long warned that New York City is at risk of chronic flooding. Due to its dense population and coastal location, the city has more residents living in high-risk flood zones than any other city in the US.
That’s bad news for Amazon, which recently opted to locate half of its second headquarters in Long Island City, Queens. The company intends to build a 4 million to 8 million square-foot development directly along the flood zone in Long Island City. If sea levels continue to rise as predicted, that development may not last for more than a couple decades.
New research from Climate Central and the real estate site Zillow suggests that Queens County (where Long Island City is located) could see coastal flooding as early as 2020. The risk becomes more acute with time.
Under the most extreme projections of sea level rise, the researchers find a 100% likelihood that Queens will witness coastal flooding by 2050, meaning many of its low-lying buildings will be submerged in water. Even under moderate projections, parts of the county — including major waterfront developments — could be flooded by 2080, much sooner than scientists originally anticipated.
On the afternoon of the company’s HQ2 announcement, Citibank said it was removing 1,100 of its employees from One Court Square, a 50-story office tower, to make way for Amazon. The company is reportedly using One Court Square as a temporary space while it constructs a new development in the Anable Basin, an artificial inlet that separates Brooklyn from Queens.
Based on Climate Central data, that new development could be partially underwater by 2050…
[…]
“Based on Climate Central data, that new development could be partially underwater by 2050…”
Draft Scope of Work for an Environmental Impact Statement for the Anable Basin Rezoning CEQR No.: 18DCP057Q
[…]
The Rezoning Area is located within the coastal zone boundary. It is mapped within Zone AE of the preliminary Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) 100-Year Floodplain, representing a 1 percent annual chance of flood hazard, and the waterfront sites have a base flood elevation of 12 feet. Many of the adjacent street elevations are between 5 and 8 feet.
[…]
“The waterfront sites have a base flood elevation of 12 feet. Many of the adjacent street elevations are between 5 and 8 feet.”
The nearest NOAA tide gauge station is at The Battery.
The rate of sea level rise at The Battery has been just under 3 mm/yr since the mid-1800’s. This equates to an additional 4 inches of sea level rise in the area by 2050.
Here is the same sea level trend plotted at the same scale as today’s tidal range forecast. The average daily tidal range is about 1 meter.
Here is the same plot, projected to 2100. This projects 10 inches of sea level rise from 2018 to 2100.
Is Anable Basin currently being flooded every day at high tide? No. Here is a blowup of the area on a 1984 USGS topographic map. The waterfront sites in Anable Basin have a flood elevation of 12 feet (3.7 meters). The streets have elevations of 1.5 to 2.5 meters.
0.1 to 0.25 meters of sea level rise isn’t going to flood anything that isn’t already being flooded at high tide, like the American Merchant Mariner’s Memorial.
The American Merchant Mariner’s Memorial
Twice a day one of these tragic bronze mariners drowns with the tide to remember all those the sea has taken.
Hidden away in the water off Battery Park is one of the most moving memorials you are ever likely to see. The American Merchant Mariner’s memorial, sculpted by Marisol Escobar in 1991, takes the form of three merchant seamen stranded on a sinking ship, terrified, calling for help and trying to reach the desperate hand of one of their shipmates floundering in the water below.
The United States Merchant Mariner suffered more casualties than any other American service during World War II, 1 of every 26 mariners would not return home.
[…]
I think the author meant to say that the United States Merchant Mariner suffered a higher casualty than any other American service during World War II.
Low tide…
High tide…
Surging Seas, Sea Level Rise Analysis by Climate Central
The Business Insider article cites two sources for the claim that Anable Basin will be flooded before mid-century: Zillow, a real estate website and Climate Central. Zillow?
This morning, when I was using the treadmill at the gym, CNBC was on the TV…
They featured a clip of Benjamin Strauss Ph.D., CEO and chief scientist at Climate Central. Out of curiosity, I Googled Dr. Strauss and I wasn’t surprised by his “credentials”…
Dr. Benjamin Strauss was elected President and CEO of Climate Central in April 2018 and also serves as Chief Scientist. He is author of numerous scientific papers and reports on sea-level rise and is architect of the Surging Seas suite of maps, tools and visualizations. Strauss has testified before the U.S. Senate and presented to state and local elected officials, and his past work has been cited by the White House and the Secretary-General of the United Nations. Surging Seas has earned more than 100 million page views, and with Strauss’s research has generated more than 10,000 appearances in U.S. and international publications, including the New York Times, Washington Post, AP, Reuters, Bloomberg, China Daily and The Hindu. He has appeared as an expert on national network news, nationally syndicated radio and documentary television.
In earlier roles at Climate Central, Dr. Strauss served as Chief Scientist, Vice President for Sea Level and Climate Impacts, interim Executive Director and COO. He was a founding board member of Grist.org and the Environmental Leadership Program. Strauss co-organized the 1994 Campus Earth Summit, and consulted to the Nathan Cummings Foundation on higher education and the environment. He holds a Ph.D. in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology from Princeton University, an M.S. in Zoology from the University of Washington, and a B.A. in Biology from Yale University.
No one on their Surging Seas team has a background or education in geology, physical geography, oceanography, marine science or any other subject related to sea level changes. Nor are any of them civil engineers. Most of them have biology/ecology degrees. Their “Sea-Level Rise Scientist” doesn’t appear to have ever had a real job…
Dr. Maya Buchanan serves as Climate Central’s Sea-Level Rise Scientist, where she focuses on assessing physical, social, and economic impacts of sea level rise. She also serves as the Chapter Scientist and a contributing author to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s upcoming special report on the ocean, and is an expert for the New York City Panel on Climate Change task forces on sea level rise and coastal flooding.
Previously, Dr. Buchanan worked as a liaison for the White House Subcommittee on Global Change Research and as a climate change expert, translating climate science into metrics for risk management and resilience for local and national governments. She earned her Ph.D. from Princeton University, M.S. from the Johns Hopkins University, and B.A. from Washington University in St. Louis.
According to her LinkedIn page:
- Princeton University, Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.), Science, Technology, and Environmental Policy 2013 – 2017
- The Johns Hopkins University Master of Science, Environmental Engineering, 2007 – 2008
- Washington University in St. Louis Bachelor’s degree, Environmental Science & Policy, Economics, Arabic, 2002 – 2006
At least she’s not a biologist/ecologist.
Anyone with at least one semester of basic physical geology or physical geography under their belt could do what I did in this post. It doesn’t take a Ph.D. in ecology to look at a topographic map, look up the elevations of places, look up the local rate of relative sea level rise and tidal ranges and put all of that together.
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I think this is the crux of the problem, a dangerous mix pretending to do highly important science to save the planet:
“No one on their Surging Seas team has a background or education in geology, physical geography, oceanography, marine science or any other subject related to sea level changes. Nor are any of them civil engineers. Most of them have biology/ecology degrees. Their “Sea-Level Rise Scientist” doesn’t appear to have ever had a real job…”
Lars P.
When climate change theories are predicated on unproven science, everyone has an opinion.
Even me. I shouldn’t be here, but that’s the nature of the beast.
I get to promote a political opinion on what should be done about climate change because politicians don’t need qualifications and the real scientist’s, geologists, physical geographers, oceanographers, marine scientists, civil engineers, or any other expert related to sea level changes (with the exception of contributors to sceptical blogs) are notable only by their absence.
We are surrounded by low level education I’m afraid, and I include myself in that, but at least I admit it.
Education is a life process, academia a direction. If I earned a degree tomorrow I would be better educated than I am today, but only by a day.
My prediction is that by 2050, science schools will be referred to as seminaries.
So if Amazon add 1 metre of fill to their new site they’ll be safe for another 300 years then.
Wow is that hard or what?
Has anybody in the CAGW movement ever heard of sea walls. New York City Real estate is really expensive and worth protecting. And, the technology to protect it exists. For instance:
https://whatsupwithamsterdam.com/6-myths/
“The western parts of The Netherlands (the provinces Noord-Holland, Zuid-Holland and Zeeland) are below sea level. That’s more than half the land. For example Airport Schiphol is 1 meter under sea level. Parts of Amsterdam are 4 meters below sea levels, other parts are 2 meters above sea level. The lowest part in Holland is 6 meters below sea level!
“Still, the Dutch aren’t worried about flooding because they have a innovative system of dykes, dunes, canals and barrages to break the water. The elaborate system is maintained and coordinated by 26 so called ‘Waterschappen (water boards)’. They continually check the level of water and adjust by pumping out water to the higher canals and rivers that run to the sea.
“The Dutch are already anticipating the rising of sea levels due to climate change. Many of the dykes and dunes have been enforced in recent years. This will continue in the coming years.”
I just hope Amazon can deliver
I think it will be much tougher than they plan on it being. They may be willing to pay tech talent $150,000/yr. but they will be bidding against Goldman Sachs and dozens of hedge funds that pay twice as much. I think they are not going to be thrilled to be hostage to the NYC Subway system that is about one breakdown from total collapse. They are also going to discover what miseries the NYC airports are.
Not a problem because we can control sea level rise by cutting emissions. Here is the proof of that.
https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/09/14/cumulativeslr/
And yet no one ever does?
Present company excepted.
‘Under the most extreme projections of sea level rise, the researchers find a 100% likelihood that Queens will witness coastal flooding by 2050, meaning many of its low-lying buildings will be submerged in water. Even under moderate projections, parts of the county — including major waterfront developments — could be flooded by 2080, much sooner than scientists originally anticipated.’
The future isn’t what it used to be.
So Amazon moves their headquarters in 2080. Why should I care? Why should THEY care?
I get the feeling that Amazon consulted people who knew what they were talking about when carrying out their Climate Change Risk Assessment, rather than some schmo who thinks RCP8.5 is hopelessly understating potential warming.
In your article David you don’t discuss that ever since Jason 3 has taken over as the primary data the sea level rise has dropped dramatically. It’s either just a funny case of out there coincidence that sea levels paused at that exact moment or there is an interesting story to be had … time will tell 🙂
Two years ago this truck driver went into Long Island City to pick up 13 palates of frozen Chinese food. IMO there would be no loss if the place was submerged. Taking a full sized rig with sleeper pulling a 53′ trailer into the boroughs of NYC is never a fun task and becomes even less so when your passing block walled enclosures covered by gang signs that has razor wire coils on top.
Two weeks ago they tried the send me deep into Queens again and I refused. Worked for this company for 11 years but told them if they didn’t like it I would clean the truck out when I got back. They quickly decided they didn’t really need to send me or any other driver in for that load and gave it back to the broker. There is a ton of freight out there and absolutely no reason to send us into the boroughs for our back hauls. Doing so is an unnecessary insurance and security risk. You want freight out of NYC then set up a drop lot outside the city and use local drivers driving day cabs to shuttle it in and out.
No-one believes it. There is no-one acting like they believe it. Not business, not countries, not individuals. The ones who claim to be acting on what they believe, like California, turn out to be doing things which are a mixture of the ineffective and the actually damaging. According to what they claim to be their beliefs.
Why they keep claiming to, and then doing the exact opposite of what their beliefs would logically lead them to do, its a complete mystery.
Its like an overweight guy claiming to believe fat and sugar are the problem, claiming to be committed to losiing weight, tucking into Sara Lee cheesecake.
The fix is on the way
NASA warns long cold winter could hit space in months bringing record low temperatures
That’s the warning from a scientist who fears sunspot activity on the surface of our star has dropped so low that record low temperatures could soon set in.
David Middleton: “Anyone with at least one semester of basic physical geology or physical geography under their belt could do what I did in this post.”
I actually had one semester of basic physical geography. That is why I don’t fall prey to everything claimed by climate alarmists.
It doesn’t take a Ph.D. in ecology to look at a topographic map, look up the elevations of places, look up the local rate of relative sea level rise and tidal ranges and put all of that together.
But what to do the rest of the day.