Guest humor by David Middleton
I ran across this interesting article on Real Clear Science today:
Is That Science?
The Wide World of Science
Jamie Hale
October 24, 2018Science is persuasive, and it should be; science is the great reality detector. What appears to be a scientific claim often isn’t. Promoters of pseudoscience (claims disguised as science that have little scientific value) are aware of the strong value placed on science. Attach the term science, or make it sound like science, and the value of a claim, product, or service is instantly enhanced. This can also be problematic because attaching the word science to a claim doesn’t make it science.
Pseudoscience is a major roadblock to rationality. Pseudoscientific beliefs are more costly than people think. Time and money spent on pseudoscience is time and money that could have been spent on beneficial activities. We live in an interconnected society, so the pseudoscientific beliefs of a few people may influence outcomes for many people. As an example, the false belief that autism is caused or associated with early vaccination has led to decreased immunization rates, more children being hospitalized, and in some cases death (Stanovich et al. 2016). As another example, consider the strange activity of Steve Jobs, who “ignored his doctors after being told of his pancreatic cancer and delayed surgery for nine months while he pursued unproven fruit diets, consulted a psychic, and received bogus hydrotherapy” (Stanovich et al. 2016,192).
The Nonsense Detection Kit
The impetus for writing the Nonsense Detection Kit was previous suggestions made by Sagan (1996), Lilienfeld et al. (2012) and Shermer (2001). The Nonsense Detection Kit is referring to nonsense in terms of “scientific nonsense.” Nonsense as it is used here is synonymous with pseudoscience. There is no single criterion for distinguishing science from pseudoscience, but it is possible to identify indicators, or warning signs. The more warnings signs that appear, the more likely the claim is nonsense.
[…]
Jamie Hale is a college instructor, and he is associated with Eastern Kentucky University’s Cognitive Neuroscience Lab and Perception & Cognition Lab. He has published articles and books on a wide range of topics. Jamie is the director of www.knowledgesummit.net and author of In Evidence We Trust: The need for science, rationality and statistics. His future articles will address models for improved scientific thinking, popular myths, and rationality in terms of cognitive science.
Mr. Hale provided six nonsense indicators… Which apply amazingly well to Gorebal Warming!
Number 1:
Nonsense Indicator: Claims Haven’t Been Verified by an Independent Source
From Climate Audit (Steve McIntyre):
Here are the current top fifteen climate science reasons for not disclosing data or code:
15. It’s on a diskette somewhere, but I don’t know where.
14. If we get a good climatic story from a chronology, we write a paper using it. That is our funded mission! The rejected data are set aside and not archived.
13. A source code request by a reviewer is unprecedented in the 28 years since I founded the journal.
12. It’s on our FTP site, but I’ve forgotten the location.
11. His research is published in the peer-reviewed literature which has passed muster with the editors of those journals and other scientists who have reviewed his manuscripts. You are free to your analysis of climate data and he is free to his.
10. With regard to the additional experimental results that you request, our view is that this goes beyond an obligation on the part of the authors.
9. It’s password protected.
8. It’s the property of the originating author.
7. It will be available after we publish an article.
6. We’re planning to publish another article.
5. As an ex- marine I refer to the concept of a few good men. A lesser amount of good data is better without a copious amount of poor data stirred in.
4. I’ve misplaced it.
3. We have 25 or so years invested in the work. Why should I make the data available to you, when your aim is to try and find something wrong with it.
2. Giving them the algorithm would be giving in to the intimidation tactics that these people are engaged in.
1. No reply
Number 2.
Nonsense Indicator: Claimant Has Only Searched for Confirmatory Evidence
From Climate Etc. (Dr. Judith Curry):
Number 3.
Nonsense Indicator: Personal Beliefs and Biases Drive the Conclusions
From The Houston Chronicle:
We’re scientists. We know the climate’s changing. And we know why.
Andrew Dessler, Daniel Cohan Oct. 22, 2018
[…]
Climate does not change by itself…
[…]
Number 4.
Nonsense Indicator: Excessive Reliance on Authorities
From the Soviet Union of Concerned Socialists Scientists:
Consensus worldwide
Many scientific societies and academies have released statements and studies that highlight the overwhelming consensus on climate change science.
American Association for the Advancement of Science: AAAS Reaffirms the Reality of Human-Caused Climate Change
“Observations throughout the world make it clear that climate change is occurring, and rigorous scientific research concludes that the greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are the primary driver. This conclusion is based on multiple independent lines of evidence and the vast body of peer-reviewed science.” (June 2016)
American Chemical Society: Statement on Global Climate Change
“The Earth’s climate is changing in response to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and particulate matter in the atmosphere, largely as the result of human activities. … Unmitigated climate change will lead to increases in extreme weather events and will cause significant sea level rise, causing property damage and population displacement. It also will continue to degrade ecosystems and natural resources, affecting food and water availability and human health, further burdening economies and societies. Continued uncontrolled GHG emissions will accelerate and compound the effects and risks of climate change well into the future.” (2016)
American Geophysical Union: Human-induced Climate Change Requires Urgent Action.
“Extensive, independent observations confirm the reality of global warming. These observations show large-scale increases in air and sea temperatures, sea level, and atmospheric water vapor; they document decreases in the extent of mountain glaciers, snow cover, permafrost, and Arctic sea ice. These changes are broadly consistent with long-understood physics and predictions of how the climate system is expected to respond to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases. The changes are inconsistent with explanations of climate change that rely on known natural influences.”(December 2003, revised and reaffirmed December 2007, February 2012, August 2013)
American Meteorological Society: Climate Change: An Information Statement of the American Meteorological Society
“It is clear from extensive scientific evidence that the dominant cause of the rapid change in climate of the past half century is human-induced increases in the amount of atmospheric greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide (CO2), chlorofluorocarbons, methane, and nitrous oxide.” (August 2012)
American Physical Society: Statement on Earth’s Changing Climate
“While natural sources of climate variability are significant, multiple lines of evidence indicate that human influences have had an increasingly dominant effect on global climate warming observed since the mid-twentieth century. Although the magnitudes of future effects are uncertain, human influences on the climate are growing.” (November 2015)
Geological Society of America: Position Statement on Climate Change
“Scientific advances have greatly reduced previous uncertainties about recent global warming. Ground-station measurements have shown a warming trend of ~0.85 °C since 1880, a trend consistent with (1) retreat of northern hemisphere snow and Arctic sea ice; (2) greater heat storage in the ocean; (3) retreat of most mountain glaciers; (4) an ongoing rise in global sea level; and (5) proxy reconstructions of temperature change over past centuries from archives that include ice cores, tree rings, lake sediments, boreholes, cave deposits, and corals.” (October 2006; revised April 2010, March 2013, April 2015).
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers
“Human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent anthropogenic emissions of green-house gases are the highest in history. Recent climate changes have had widespread impacts on human and natural systems. “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, and sea level has risen.” (2014)
International academies joint statement: Global response to climate change
“The world’s climate is changing, and the impacts are already being observed. Changing agricultural conditions, ocean warming and acidification, rising sea levels, and increased frequency and intensity of many extreme weather events are impacting infrastructure, environmental assets and human health.” (2018, African Academy of Sciences and the national academies of science of the United Kingdom, Australia, Bangladesh, Botswana, Canada, India, Mauritius, Mozambique, Nigeria, Pakistan, New Zealand, Cyprus, Singapore, Sri Lanka, South Africa, Scotland, Zimbabwe, Kenya, Zambia, Malaysia, Cameroon).
U.S. Global Change Research Program: Highlights of the Findings of the U.S. Global Change Research Program Climate Science Special Report
“Based on extensive evidence, … it is extremely likely that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. For the warming over the last century, there is no convincing alternative explanation supported by the extent of the observational evidence.
“In addition to warming, many other aspects of global climate are changing, primarily in response to human activities. Thousands of studies conducted by researchers around the world have documented changes in surface, atmospheric, and oceanic temperatures; melting glaciers; diminishing snow cover; shrinking sea ice; rising sea levels; ocean acidification; and increasing atmospheric water vapor.” (November 2017)
U.S. National Academy of Sciences: Understanding and Responding to Climate Change
“The scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear to begin taking steps to prepare for climate change and to slow it.” (2008)
Number 5.
Nonsense Indicator: Overreliance on Anecdotes
Climate communication for biologists: When a picture can tell a thousand words
Stephan Lewandowsky , Lorraine Whitmarsh
Published: October 9, 2018Abstract
Pictures often tell a story better than the proverbial 1,000 words. However, in connection with climate change, many pictures can be highly misleading, for example, when a snowball is used to ridicule the notion of global warming or when a picture of a dead crop is supposed to alert people to climate change. We differentiate between such inappropriate pictures and those that can be used legitimately because they capture long-term trends. For example, photos of a glacier’s retreat are legitimate indicators of the long-term mass balance loss that is observed for the vast majority of glaciers around the world.[…]
Triggering positive affect
Images or stories that demonstrate the significance of climate change for valued objects, places, or people—without evoking demotivating fear—can be effective triggers for public engagement. The need for affective engagement must, however, be balanced with informational content that accurately conveys the causes or impacts of climate change. If neither a snowball nor pictures of polar bears or parched landscapes are legitimate images, what are?[…]
Number 6.
Nonsense Indicator: Use of Excessive ‘Science Sounding’ Words or Concepts
- Anthropocene
- Ocean Acidification
Global WarmingClimate ChangeClimate WeirdingAtmospheric RadicalizationCarbon Pollution- Atmosphere Cancer
I have never seen the term ‘Atmospheric Radicalization’ before. But I have come across ‘climate breakdown’, which I think may be increasing in popularity over the last 2 or 3 years.
You don’t even need a scientist to work it out nowadays-
“We literally said, ‘Let’s build the pool because the cyclone season is over,’ and then we got hit,” Luke Kercheval, one of the owners of Matava, told me, adding that the storms had scared off visitors. “We got more rain in a week than some countries get in a year. That’s not normal.”
“Donald Trump might not agree, but it’s 100 percent about climate change,” he added. “I don’t need to be a scientist to figure this out.”
The topic of climate change was everywhere in Fiji, even at the airport in Nadi, where a billboard read, “Airports Addressing Climate Change.”
https://www.msn.com/en-au/travel/news/paradise-threatened-fiji’s-war-against-climate-change/ar-BBOUfqL
Just the billboard at the airport eh? Still I suppose when you write this drivel you get to jet away to Fiji feeling good about doing your bit to save the planet, etc-
https://www.dictionary.com/browse/white-man-s-burden
“As an example, the false belief that autism is caused or associated with early vaccination”
When does the fact that one author of a study establishing the absence of link between Autism and vaccination is a Crook and is on the run begins to bother “pro-science” people? An issue this so called skeptic website isn’t willing to discuss.
For normal DECENT people, the BS detector is already saturated. Can’t go further. Bad!
simple-touriste
“As an example, the false belief that autism is caused or associated with early vaccination”
They jailed this women for speaking up about vaccinations. This 11 minutes may change your life and many around you. One thing the medical system needs for bright economic future is sick people.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rhZETbXCqCM
What do people think would happen, if we keep locking money up through over insuring ? Insurance Industries promote FEAR, and governments come up with ways to unlock all that cash back into the system. IMO that Insurance and planned disasters go hand in hand.
“There are several live presentations on the subject of climate engineering available on the windows below. If you are new to this subject, the red window, “Climate Engineering, A Clear And Present Danger” is a recommended starting point for an overall summary presentation.”
https://www.geoengineeringwatch.org/
Simple,
Decent people don’t promote a lie which kills children.
How many babies are harmed by a “shaken baby syndrome” that nobody has ever verified is caused by shaking, and not by vaccines?
How many children now have:
– asthma
– food allergies
– diabetes
– “autism” – whatever that is (probably many different things)
How many adults will get dangerous childhood diseases, because they were vaccinated?
Why do vaxxers use their abject failures to justify their policies?
Why are you pretend skeptics are allowing vaxxers to use the fact that these diseases are more often severe, do to occurring much later in life in average, being use to push a vaccine? If you let them to that, you are shills, period.
Simple,
As always, you have it backwards, and all screwed up.
Adults who weren’t vaccinated or didn’t have childhood diseases from lack of exposure suffer worse when they do finally contract infections.
You still haven’t provided a shred of evidence that vaccines cause any of the ailments and disorders which you falsely imagine and have convinced yourself that they do, such as MS, asthma, allergies, diabetes and autism.
You haven’t done so because you can’t. No such evidence exists.
You failed to answer simple questions regarding MS and you have been dismissed.
Go away now!
Simple,
You have failed to answer any questions at all about your counterfactual fantasy. There is no evidence whatsoever than any vaccine causes MS, which is all I need point out to show your imaginary concerns false.
How can you live with yourself, knowing that your delusions have caused the preventable deaths of children? How do you suppose that the scourge of smallpox was eradicated?
You persist in violating blog policy by spewing such errant, antiscientific nonsense.
So it will be you who goes away, as soon the mods notice this prohibited behavior on your part.
John Tillman, You didn’t bother to watch the vid I posted above did you. If you did you wouldn’t be going off like a pork chop in the sun. My first born back in 1980 had one of the first 3 in 1 vacc’s in Australia, the next day he was in hospital with temp of 102 C We thought he might not make it. He must of been so close to frying his tiny brain. That’s what happens when you put mercury (Thimerosal) into developing brains.
Thiomersal controversy. The thiomersal controversy describes claims that vaccines containing the mercury-based preservative thiomersal contribute to the development of autism and other brain development disorders. Thimerosal is no longer used in children’s vaccines in the United States, except some types of flu shots. If Thimerosal safe then why did they take it out???? When I was young we all got chicken pox, mumps, and measles.
John Tillman, as usual you refuse to answer any question, spam this blog with personal attacks, and call for censorship.
You are a bot. I’m done with you.
Thanks to Kristi Silber for weighing in. Let’s stipulate that the 20th century was warmer than the 19th century. So what? The 19th century probably saw the end of the Little Ice Age. It still might be interesting that there were warmer decades and cooler decades in the 20th century, presumably unrelated to the steady increase in CO2. Bigger picture: has any bad thing been reliably shown to have happened as a result of this small temperature increase, or more generally as a result of the undeniable increase in man-made CO2, which may have something to do with the temperature increase? Isn’t it true that the greening of the earth in the 20th century, presumably as a result of increasing CO2, can be documented much more clearly than any bad result? See Judith Curry, what are the true or most likely “worst outcomes,” and which outcomes, of those we hear about, are actually impossible?
Lloyd,
Sorry, I didn’t see your comment until just now. Are you still around? I don’t want to waste time if you aren’t, since you posted 3 days ago. That’s happened to me before.
Four or five years ago, after subscribing for more than 20 years, I cancelled my subscription to Skeptical Enquirer. It was clear they had guzzled all the Kool-Aid. I wrote to the editor explaining that a publication called Skeptical Enquirer should not be repeatedly insisting that I accept that climate change is man-made. It should be scrutinising the claims and actively seeking out the cracks and voids and weaknesses. Not necessarily to debunk climate science, but to strengthen it, if possible. I didn’t expect an answer and I didn’t get one.
Even back then they still published articles like the one quoted here. The editor(s) just seemed incapable of understanding them or determined to ignore them.
I won’t be resubscribing on the strength of this article but is good to know there is still a glowing ember of skepticism there.
Quelgeek
Science takes a knee to whoever pay’s their way . Funding means advertising , Advertising means more funds.
“Since when did the act of kneeling come to be viewed as an act of disrespect? Throughout history, the bending of the knee has always been an act of great respect and humility. People have been kneeling and genuflecting before kings, queens, and popes for centuries as a sign of homage and respect. Every avid follower of the TV series “Game of Thrones” knows that the “bending of the knee” is a symbolic gesture of fealty and allegiance.”
http://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/knee-means-article-1.3543740
In science, use of uncertain conclusions described as may, potentially, etc. are nonsense indicators.
Here is an example of pseudoscience published in Science on the subject of glyphosate detected by someone at the American Council on Science and Health.
https://www.acsh.org/news/2018/07/03/glyphosate-and-pesticides-et-tu-live-science-13148
“Two weeks ago, we reported on a bizarre decision by the online news arm of the journal Science: The outlet had reprinted an article from a politically slanted environmentalist website that hyped concern over a particular chemical. The article fell quite short of the high standards we associate with the journal.”
Had the astronomical Dr. Sagan followed the scientific method, he wouldn’t have promoted the Nuclear Winter hoax.
Problem with
8. Atmosphere Cancer:
– Atmosphere Cancer exists. We call it “Anthrax”.
Before we started hearing about global warming, I don’t remember learned societies making pronouncements like those cited under point 4.