Forecasters: #HurricaneFlorence to get energy boost from the Gulf Stream

As millions of people along the Atlantic Coast of the United States board up windows and evacuate before Hurricane Florence makes landfall, remote sensing researchers and forecasters are monitoring the environmental conditions fueling the powerful storm. They are assembling a suite of satellite images and data products that could aid storm preparedness and recovery efforts by federal and local partners.

As Florence approaches land, two key factors will help govern the severity of the storm: ocean temperatures and wind shear, the difference in wind speeds at upper and lower parts of a storm. Warm ocean water and low wind shear are required to sustain and intensify a hurricane.

The map above shows sea surface temperatures on September 11, 2018. Meteorologists generally agree that sea surface temperatures (SSTs) should be above 27.8°C (82°F) to sustain and intensify hurricanes (although there are some exceptions). In Florence’s case, National Hurricane Center forecasters expect the storm to pass over water with temperatures well above that threshold. The data for the map were compiled by Coral Reef Watch, which blends observations from the Suomi NPP, MTSAT, Meteosat, and GOES satellites and computer models. Information about the storm track and winds come from the National Hurricane Center.

Florence will be traveling over water that is anomalously warm for this time of year, noted Marangelly Fuentes, a NASA atmospheric scientist who has been tracking the storm with models maintained by NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). As the storm approaches land, sea surface temperatures off of the Carolinas were between 0.5 and 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than usual.

However, the warm coastal water is not the only reason that the Carolinas may be hit by one of the strongest hurricanes to ever make landfall at such a northerly latitude in this region.“While it is common to see storms this strong or even stronger over the ocean at this latitude,” said Gary Partyka, another atmospheric scientist with GMAO. “What set this situation apart was an unusually strong blocking high north of the storm that directed it towards the United States. Usually with storms at this latitude large-scale circulation patterns drive them to the north and east, well away from the coast.”

Forecasters have warned that life-threatening storm surges, catastrophic flooding, damaging winds, and dangerous rip currents will likely occur along the coastlines of North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia when the storm arrives late on September 13. There is growing concern that the presence of another atmospheric blocking ridge in the Mid-Atlantic region may cause the storm to stall and possibly move south and west toward Georgia, potentially extending the amount of time it remains over warm water and increasing the rainfall totals.

With forecasters expecting prodigious amounts of rain, NASA’s Disasters Program has mobilized a team that will use NASA sensors to monitor soil moisture, soil saturation, and rainfall rates. During and after the storm, this team will produce and disseminate information about where satellites observe floods and other effects of the storm. For more awesome, frightening views of Hurricane Florence, see this story.


NASA Earth Observatory image by Joshua Stevens, using sea surface temperature data from Coral Reef Watch and wind probabilities from the National Hurricane Center. Story by Adam Voiland.

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Kenji
September 12, 2018 3:52 pm

Damn! That’s warm water. Which is why Santa Cruz surfers are bad ass … even WITH the high tech wetsuits. So cold, you’ll shrink-up to a stack of dimes … not enough to even make a phone call.

Reply to  Kenji
September 12, 2018 4:02 pm

The Greenies will be happy, all the usuall lirs but this time thy are right, its warmer thn u usual in the sea.r.

MJE

Latitude
Reply to  Kenji
September 12, 2018 5:09 pm

She says she found water at 85.5F….it’s there…just not much of it…and it gets cooler at the coast

http://charts.cdn-fishtrack.com/jplft/northamer/seus/jplimgs/JPL_0.png

Greg
Reply to  Latitude
September 13, 2018 2:20 am

Marangelly Fuentes, a NASA atmospheric scientist :

“traveling over water that is anomalously warm for this time of year, “

So why is she crapping on about “anomalies”? It is REAL physical heat which affects storms , not statistical variations “for the time of year”.

This just underlines how they have become so obsessed with the AGW “anomalies” that they can not even look ACTUAL temps when following a storm. They are already preparing the media soundbites and attempts to suggest attribution.

LexingtonGreen
Reply to  Kenji
September 12, 2018 5:42 pm

Kenji, that was my thought as well. I can’t believe the Atlantic is so warm. But I think I would rather have west coast cool water than Bull Sharks and such. 70 is just fine. Granted below 60 and I don’t generally go in even with a wet suit.

AWG
Reply to  LexingtonGreen
September 12, 2018 6:26 pm

It can’t be that warm, we were all told that Climate Change would end the Gulf Stream and the UK and Europe would freeze.

Reply to  Kenji
September 12, 2018 5:49 pm

Did they bother to say that for the first 10 days of her 13-day existence (as of today), Florence was churning in cooler-than-normal waters?

Pop Piasa
Reply to  Bob Tisdale
September 12, 2018 6:06 pm

Party pooper! 👨‍🎓

ReallySkeptical
Reply to  Bob Tisdale
September 12, 2018 6:35 pm

to Tisdale: I don’t see why your comment is relevant. The storm was only a 2 or 3 then. As it reached the warmer water it was 4 or 3/4. It’s the most northerly 4 I think. Those waters are more than 1C warmer than normal.

Do you mean that people shouldn’t worry about this storm because it started in cooler waters….? I mean, really, what’s your point?

Reply to  ReallySkeptical
September 12, 2018 7:04 pm

ReallySkeptical said, “to Tisdale: I don’t see why your comment is relevant. The storm was only a 2 or 3 then.”

Wrong you are, ReallySkeptical! No surprise there. For much of it’s initial 10 days (the time period of my question), Florence was a tropical storm.

You, ReallySkeptical, then went on to write, “Do you mean that people shouldn’t worry about this storm because it started in cooler waters….?”

There’s no way that any logical person with a basis in reality could believe that I implied or suggested that with my simple question above. You’re really grasping at straws for your argument.

You waste my time and space on this thread.

Good-bye, ReallySkeptical.

RyanS
Reply to  Bob Tisdale
September 12, 2018 7:22 pm

I agree with ReallySkeptical.

“Did they bother to say that for the first 10 days of her 13-day existence (as of today), Florence was churning in cooler-than-normal waters?”

Why bother to even ask that? The perception is you’re attempting to downplay it.

MarkW
Reply to  ReallySkeptical
September 12, 2018 7:23 pm

As usual, RS demonstrates that he doesn’t know as much as he believes he does.
A storms ability to take advantage of warmer waters depends on how well organized it is. How well a storm organizes depends in part on the temperature of the water it has passed over.

marque2
Reply to  ReallySkeptical
September 12, 2018 7:23 pm

How do they know how far North previous 4s went? What about Hazel which hit Oct 15, 1954 – much later in the season – which hit ground at Cat 4 in North Carolina? how far north did it go? Hazel must have been further North as a Cat 4 than Florence, looking at Florence’s path. I can’t believe all the hysteria from what is usually a very well reasoned crowd.

ReallySkeptical
Reply to  ReallySkeptical
September 12, 2018 7:29 pm

No, you what said didn’t signify. (That means it didn’t mean anything, for the language impaired.)
You said we should wonder about a storm that didnt start in warmer waters. Or may be be concerned about such a storm, I don’t know. And that was important, for some reason. I don’t agree. I think your statement is silly, almost in a Monty Python like way…
the storm hit warmer waters, as predicted, and got more severe, as predicted. The cool waters of it’s manufacture didnt matter at all.
So you are bringing up nothing of consequence. (Again that means it didn’t mean anything, for the language impaired.)

Mike the Morlock
Reply to  ReallySkeptical
September 12, 2018 8:34 pm

hello ReallySkeptical. Have you ever been in a hurricane? I have.

It was back in 1977 I think. I and some friends from high school went out water skiing on long island sound, we were wearing wet suits it was very cold, the hurricane was several hours out. It was quit the adventure the coast guard brought us in. The cold water was just fine for the hurricane. That one up rooted trees, but then most of them did. You don’t need extra warm water for a hurricane. Back in the 60s &70s we would get 2-3 a season.
This one is bad because of were it is landing and that areas geography
Plus I don’t think people know how to build hurricane proof beach houses any more.

michael

Crispin in Waterloo
Reply to  ReallySkeptical
September 12, 2018 8:40 pm

So now we are language-impaired and you are not? How did these tables get turned? RS, you are welcome here; up your game.

Reply to  ReallySkeptical
September 13, 2018 3:39 am

ReallySkeptical says, “You said we should wonder about a storm that didnt start in warmer waters. Or may be be concerned about such a storm, I don’t know.”

You are correct that you don’t know. You are clueless.

Now it appears that English is a second language for you or that you are language-impaired.

Good-bye, ReallySkeptical. I’ve wasted my time with you twice on this thread, and I won’t do it again.

ReallySkeptical
Reply to  ReallySkeptical
September 12, 2018 8:13 pm

But I understand, I would not respond to a acquisition so to the point as mine…

Wallaby Geoff
Reply to  ReallySkeptical
September 12, 2018 8:18 pm

You patronising jerk!

ReallySkeptical
Reply to  Wallaby Geoff
September 12, 2018 8:30 pm

“patronising”?

Wallaby Geoff
Reply to  ReallySkeptical
September 12, 2018 9:44 pm

(Patronising meaning : treat condescendingly, treat with condescension, condescend to, look down on, talk down to, put down, humiliate, treat like a child, treat as inferior, treat with disdain, treat scornfully/contemptuously). Above supplied to those who are challeged by polysyllabic words.

Eamon Butler
Reply to  ReallySkeptical
September 13, 2018 2:55 am

Lol! Give it up. Monty Python. Indeed.

”No, you what said didn’t signify. (That means it didn’t mean anything, for the language impaired.)” ????

”But I understand, I would not respond to a acquisition so to the point as mine…” ????

Have another go. 🙂

Alan the Brit
Reply to  Wallaby Geoff
September 13, 2018 2:04 am

Hey Wallaby Geoff, stop beating around the bush & come straight to the point! 😉

Bryan A
Reply to  ReallySkeptical
September 12, 2018 9:09 pm

Acquisition…or Accusation?

ReallySkeptical
Reply to  ReallySkeptical
September 12, 2018 10:41 pm

have you ever been in snow storm ?

yup.

buffalo, 1978

ReallySkeptical
Reply to  ReallySkeptical
September 12, 2018 10:42 pm

night …

Mike the Morlock
Reply to  ReallySkeptical
September 12, 2018 11:52 pm

Yes ReallySkeptical hundreds of them. Of course nothing like a hurricane, no points there fella.
michael

MarkW
Reply to  ReallySkeptical
September 13, 2018 7:07 am

Google doesn’t translate gibberish, so would you please try again.

Eamon Butler
Reply to  ReallySkeptical
September 13, 2018 2:40 am

RS How come you are the only one unable to understand Bob’s single sentence question? Maybe if you didn’t make it up, (”Do you mean that people shouldn’t worry about this storm because it started in cooler waters…”) you would get the point, like everyone else.

Latitude
Reply to  Eamon Butler
September 13, 2018 5:54 am

He’s a conservative plant…to make liberals look like morons

Sam C Cogar
Reply to  ReallySkeptical
September 13, 2018 7:51 am

It’s the most northerly 4 I think.

ReallySkeptical

How many “northly 4’s” do you suppose is in this group, to wit:

comment image

marque2
Reply to  Sam C Cogar
September 13, 2018 10:40 am

Most Northerly 4 was Hazel in 1954 and it now looks like it will keep that record.

Alan the Brit
Reply to  Bob Tisdale
September 13, 2018 2:01 am

BBC still calling Florence a hurricane as usual but at the same time telling us it has been downgraded to a Catagory 2 storm, is this true my Virginian friend from the colonies?

MarkW
Reply to  Alan the Brit
September 13, 2018 8:32 am

Once a storms winds exceed a certain speed (74.9mph??) it’s called a hurricane.
Hurricanes are then broken down into categories, 1 through 5 based on wind speed.
A cat 2 storm is still a hurricane.

marque2
Reply to  MarkW
September 13, 2018 10:42 am

There is a big difference between 95mph winds and 130mph winds. That is why the hysterical had to pretend it would be 130.

September 12, 2018 3:57 pm

The Phillipines are also about to get hit by a massive typhoon. Current surface winds are peaking at 116 mph. The max upper level wind speed is a spot showing 152 mph. This storm is much stronger than Florence. …https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-228.36,14.50,1821/loc=132.523,14.492

Reply to  goldminor
September 12, 2018 4:02 pm

Named “26 Mangkhut”.

Bulldust
Reply to  goldminor
September 12, 2018 5:29 pm

I was about to link the same. Despite being a stronger storm it isn’t hitting the US, so therefore it doesn’t count as far as the media is concerned.

Bulldust
Reply to  Bulldust
September 12, 2018 5:30 pm
marque2
Reply to  Bulldust
September 12, 2018 7:26 pm

Last time a Cat 4 hit the Philippines, the media touted it as the storm with the fastest winds evah – even though the Philippines weather service insisted it was only Cat 4. One of the harbors was grossly filled with trash and floating plastic and bottles. Stock pictures from this are used in articles discussing the Pacific plastic gyre – which has no floating plastic.

RyanS
Reply to  marque2
September 12, 2018 7:34 pm

Are you referring to Typhoon Haiyan?

marque2
Reply to  RyanS
September 12, 2018 8:17 pm

That probably was it in 2016. I see it listed as a Super Typhoon in Wiki. I suppose they are using USA speed claims vs Philippines claims.

Reply to  marque2
September 13, 2018 5:25 am

This morning the winds are up to 164 mph in spots. The peak wind yesterday was 180 mph. That is strong.

Leon Brozyna
September 12, 2018 3:57 pm

Okay, I’ve heard it described as a once-in-a-generation storm; do we have an unprecedented yet? It’s already been blamed on President Trump.

Mike of the North
Reply to  Leon Brozyna
September 12, 2018 6:07 pm

Yes, I heard the hurricane was Trump’s fault, but not the good economy. Obama is given credit for that due to the stifling regulations and tax policies he had in place apparently.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Mike of the North
September 12, 2018 6:39 pm

If you want to see the real picture of the economy, you should have seen the charts the Director of the White House Council of Economic Advisors showed at a news conference yesterday.

I can’t seem to find the charts on the official CEA website, but the charts showed various aspects of the economy and compared the Obama years with Trump’s 19 months and most of the charts looked like Hockey Stick Charts!

A chart would show the Obama era with a downtrending slope and then an abrupt uptrend as soon as Trump was elected! The contrast was obvious and would be obvious to just about anyone.

If Republicans were smart they would make copies of those charts and display them at all their campaign rallies to show the difference between the Obama weak economy and the Trump economy, which is on fire.

I heard a statistic given this morning which was that since Trump was elected, about 865,000 new small businesses have started up. That’s a pretty good number!

Yes, Republicans need to circulate those economic charts far and wide. They would shut Obama up pretty quick. Well, maybe not him, but they would shut everyone else up as far as the question of who is better for the U.S. economy.

Wrusssr
Reply to  Mike of the North
September 12, 2018 6:42 pm

No doubt about it. Trump’s fault. Let’s move along now. We have work to do. Several more Trumpcanes in the making. Anyone notified the Philippines what caused theirs?

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Wrusssr
September 12, 2018 7:51 pm

Trumpcanes! Trump is pounding that Swamp! 🙂

Go HOme
Reply to  Leon Brozyna
September 12, 2018 6:08 pm

AccuWeather meteorologist Marshall Moss said Florence’s track is unique. “It was located farther north in the Atlantic than any other storm to ever hit the Carolinas, so what we’re forecasting is unprecedented,” Moss said.

USA TODAY

Gilbert K. Arnold
Reply to  Go HOme
September 12, 2018 6:43 pm

Unprecedented?… Does he have hurricane records going back millennia? If not, then it’s just not been seen in recorded history. There is no way knowing whether there was one before this. It may be unique but I’m not going to accept “unprecedented” without a qualifier.

marque2
Reply to  Gilbert K. Arnold
September 12, 2018 7:35 pm

He doesn’t even have a good handle on the hurricanes to hit North Carolina the last 50 years. This storm is going to be one of the most southern major storms (Cat 3+) to hit North Carolina. As for Northern most hurricane – Cat 1 and Cat 2 hurricanes have hit Maine.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_hurricanes#Maine

AGW is not Science
Reply to  Gilbert K. Arnold
September 13, 2018 8:27 am

Yes, but you know that “unprecedented” tripe was going to be trotted out. Because the Climate Nazis follow the playbook of the original Nazis – “If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it.” – Joseph Goebbels

Louis Hooffstetter
Reply to  Go HOme
September 12, 2018 7:05 pm

Marshall Moss is full of crap. As Tony Heller has pointed out, Hurricane Hazel made landfall in the same area as a Category 4 storm in 1954.

marque2
Reply to  Louis Hooffstetter
September 12, 2018 7:36 pm

Hazel was closer to Virginia, Florence will be closer to South Carolina, so Hazel was much further north, But it would be true that in recorded official history North Carolina is the northern most state to get Cat 4 hurricane hits.

MarkW
Reply to  Go HOme
September 12, 2018 7:25 pm

No two storms have ever followed exactly the same track.
If that’s the line they want to take, then every storm is “unprecedented”.

AGW is not Science
Reply to  MarkW
September 13, 2018 8:35 am

Yes, but there lies the beauty of the deception. They just keep drawing that dotted line to connect the (supposedly, but not actually) “unprecedented” weather events with (supposed, but not actual) human-induced “climate change,” and (they hope) the great unwashed will come to accept our invisible human-induced climate boogeyman to be real.

The Climate Nazis are simply adopting the playbook of the original Nazis – “If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it.” – Joseph Goebbels

marque2
Reply to  Go HOme
September 12, 2018 7:32 pm

That is absolutely ridiculous, and false. Hazel almost hit Virginia, when Florence hits it will hit the southern border of North Carolina, and might even Stay in South Carolina. Since it is on a northerly track, it can be no-where near the furthest north of any storm to hit Carolina, even storms of this magnitude. This is getting frustrating.
comment image

Reply to  Go HOme
September 13, 2018 3:19 am

“It was located farther north in the Atlantic than any other storm to ever hit the Carolinas”
You need to read that more carefully than people seem to be doing. “was” is the key word. He isn’t saying that it will strike further north than previous hurricanes; he is saying that it comes from further north, and so is travelling in a more westerly direction. Other trajectories have been more NW.

PeterinMD
Reply to  Nick Stokes
September 13, 2018 8:25 am

And his other key word is “ever”. Seeing as the first satellite imagery was used in 1961, that invalidates “ever” seeing as we would not be able to tell how far north any hurricane had attained before 1961.

marque2
Reply to  PeterinMD
September 13, 2018 10:46 am

If you read about Hurricane Hazel it was pretty well established where it was. They already had aircraft to fly into the eye – but weren’t able to for several days do to excessive turbulence, and injuries to crews. But no everything wasn’t as precise, and we didn’t know exactly where it was every minute like we do today.

AGW is not Science
Reply to  Nick Stokes
September 13, 2018 8:37 am

Next they’ll be telling us the time of day a hurricane comes ashore is “unprecedented.” LMAO

marque2
Reply to  AGW is not Science
September 13, 2018 10:48 am

I get the impression that they want us to believe Atlantic hurricanes may not have existed before Trump, and definitely didn’t exist before Bush.

RLu
Reply to  Go HOme
September 13, 2018 3:28 am

If it is ‘unprecedented’, then how does he know the models are valid. He is using them outside of the envelope.

commieBob
September 12, 2018 4:04 pm

As far as I can tell, the worry is that Florence will sit in one place and pound the same area for a long time. link

My uneducated guess is that the Carolinas are not as well prepared for hurricanes as Florida is. President Trump seems to be treating this very seriously.

Rhoda R
Reply to  commieBob
September 12, 2018 4:11 pm

Looks like it’s going to be a repeat of Harvey(?) that hit Texas last year.

Pop Piasa
Reply to  Rhoda R
September 12, 2018 6:15 pm

Similar, but not for the same meteorological reasons. At least that’s what Joe Bastardi sez.

marque2
Reply to  commieBob
September 13, 2018 10:49 am

North Carolina seems to get hit by a hurricane every 2 – 3 years, and a 3+ every 15 years or so. If they are not prepared it is their own fault.

Anthony Banton
September 12, 2018 4:14 pm

comment image

Michael Jankowski
September 12, 2018 4:33 pm

Latest model runs aren’t calling for much intensification…most calling for none.

Was lots of hype of Cat 4 or even Cat 5 right before landfall…looks like it is going to be a 3 at highest. Might be a Cat 2 at landfall.

Still big and strong, potential for major rainfall and flooding if it stalls, not a good scenario if it runs the coast for a bit, etc…

Michael Jankowski
Reply to  Michael Jankowski
September 12, 2018 6:25 pm

8pm advisory is out…dropped to 115 from 120 at 5pm. Models almost universally saying Cat 2 before landfall with sone at Cat 3…or Cat 1.

Michael Jankowski
Reply to  Michael Jankowski
September 13, 2018 7:01 am

Down to 110 mph at 8am this morn. “Energy boost”…no.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Michael Jankowski
September 12, 2018 6:44 pm

Yes, Hurricane Florence has slowed down to about 115mph from 140mph. It must be running low on CO2.

marque2
Reply to  Michael Jankowski
September 12, 2018 7:42 pm

I was predicting they would invent new Cats for the hurricane.

A Eyewitness news report: I am here on the Carolina cost where I am waiting for Florence to hit the coast. It is expected to hit in four days. Over the last three days it has intensified from Cat 2 – Cat 4. If it keeps going at this rate it will be a Cat 7 when it hits the shores of North Carolina. Back to you in the studio Mary.

September 12, 2018 4:48 pm

As a very interested party on the coast of South Carolina , I have been following this storm for the past several days. Hurricanes are norotiously unpredictable, but this one has followed the predicted path almost exactly for the past few days. Lately the big change in the estimated path was the turn to the left upon landfall and cobering all of South Carolina and Georgia and missing Virginia and the northern half of North CArolina. all due to a couple of stationary high pressure areas to the north. The estimates are that max winds at the coast will barely achieve hurricane status – about 75MPH at most locations, or less. Storm surges will be greatest at Wilmington NC – 13 feet. Elsewhere they will be 6 feet or less. RAin totals on the coast for Wilmington are by far the greatest – 24+ inches, while elsewhere they vary from 8 to 12 inches and less. Inland wind speeds will seldom reach tropical storm magnitudes (39MPH). Rain totals inland are the big unknown – they could be quite high, depending upon the speed of the storm, which will become a tropical storm rapidly as it moves inland and then a tropical depression soon after that. Winds will not be the problem

Alan Tomalty
Reply to  kent beuchert
September 12, 2018 5:15 pm

It still has time to pick up speed. The water looks warm in its path. Dont underestimate this storm. However you are probably correct. Damage from water will be far greater

Utterbilge
Reply to  kent beuchert
September 12, 2018 7:06 pm

As Bulldust notes below, this enormous sea surface temperature anomaly is clearly evident in real time satellite recon, and will impact the evolution of the storms already crossing it in Florence’s wake.

The price , human and political of disbelief in this case could be as high as that of Hurricane Katrina, which was likewise thermodynamically amplified by surface heat from the Gulf of Mexico.

https://vvattsupwiththat.blogspot.com/2018/09/and-if-sea-is-boiling-hot.html

Steven Fraser
Reply to  Utterbilge
September 12, 2018 9:15 pm

On the other hand, you will be able to see the temp differential of where Florence has passed. That 200-mile wide zone will be measurably cooler.

The other storms will not go to this area. The next one fizzles out in a few days, and the one after that bends northward and then to the East toward Portugal.

taxed
September 12, 2018 5:16 pm

The big risk l see with this storm is that it will hit the coastline near its peak and it will then stall.
When it hits the coast l still think its more likely to move north rather then south, but its not looking as certain that will be the case as it did 24 hours ago.

michael hart
September 12, 2018 5:16 pm

“The data for the map were compiled by Coral Reef Watch…”

Call me a cynic, but I would have trouble trusting the credibility of data emanating from an organization with that name. Global warming agenda, or what?

Rob
September 12, 2018 5:26 pm

If only the jet stream would shift around and start coming out of the north. There is plenty cold air in the north and if that were fed into the hurricane it would take the punch out of it.

taxed
Reply to  Rob
September 12, 2018 5:46 pm

Rob
What will make the big difference is weather it will move north or south as it hits the coastline. With luck it will move north, as that will send a good amount of the rainfall out to sea. But if it moves south then most of the heavy rainfall will fall over NC and SC.

Latitude
September 12, 2018 5:39 pm

The data for the map were compiled by Coral Reef Watch..

This one is a lot better and more detailed….

http://www.fishtrack.com/fishing-charts/southeast-us_58668

JimG1
September 12, 2018 5:49 pm

Latest nws I saw was to turn sw and be a 2 to 3 when it makes landfall. Then there is the discussion about at what altitude winds are measured.

Pop Piasa
Reply to  JimG1
September 12, 2018 6:27 pm

Well, generally the higher the altitude the greater the wind speed until you reach the “pulled-down” tropopause at the top of the cyclone. Reporting wind speeds at altitudes where it was previously impossible will not provide data that can be easily compared with historical surface wind data. It only provides shock value from the public’s perspective.

AGW is not Science
Reply to  Pop Piasa
September 13, 2018 8:55 am

Which is exactly why they will find any excuse to use it. Propaganda isn’t about truth, it’s about bending “the masses” to your will.

john
September 12, 2018 5:53 pm
Barbara
Reply to  john
September 12, 2018 6:39 pm

Badly.

AGW is not Science
Reply to  john
September 13, 2018 8:58 am

Now THOSE are images every idiot supporter of “solar and wind power” needs to be inundated with (no pun intended) – images of what your power SOURCE (NOT just the transmission lines) will look like every time a storm hits them. Perhaps compared with coal and gas and nuclear power plant “before and after hurricane” photos as a comparison.

AGW is not Science
Reply to  john
September 13, 2018 9:00 am

Oh, and (from your link):

“The turbines were expected to produce 208 megawatts, or enough to power 60,000 homes a year. Avangrid Renewables will not release the amount of power actually produced after more than a year of operation, said company spokesman Paul Copleman.”

Gee, I wonder why…

ossqss
September 12, 2018 6:41 pm

Florence is not doing too well as a major cane. Look for yourself. Dry air shear, a couple ECR’s, and No depth to SST’s.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=ir

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=ir-dvorak

I am frankly suprised that nobody in the profession has commented about Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) of the ocean and this cane. Why do you think hitting the Gulf Stream is talked about? It has a 26 degree temp to depth.

TCHP as of yesterday.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2018254at.jpg

26 degree to depth.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2018254atd26.png

R Shearer
Reply to  ossqss
September 12, 2018 8:23 pm

That’s good. Happy to hear encouraging developments. Thanks

ossqss
Reply to  ossqss
September 13, 2018 2:47 pm

Please note those sat loops auto update and are not representative of the storm conditions at the time of the original comment.

Mike Maguire
September 12, 2018 6:52 pm
eyesonu
Reply to  Mike Maguire
September 12, 2018 9:06 pm

Mike,

Congratulations, the 2 ‘down vote’ trolls didn’t like your link as well as many others above that didn’t project massive doom. It must now be past their bedtime as yours was the last of the ‘down votes’. I hope if they come back they’ll give me a few ‘downs’. It makes a good counter and polling proxy.

September 12, 2018 6:57 pm

So are we to believe as many will claim that this is an “unprecedented” storm in the history of the planet? It has NEVER happened before in the preceding millions and billions of years? People who actually use their brains and/or do not have an agenda know that these storms are not unprecedented. We just have millions of people living in their paths now.

marque2
Reply to  Cascadian
September 12, 2018 7:48 pm

Yes we are, even though Cat 3’s hit North Carolina every 15 years or so, and it has had a Cat 4 before, which hit much further north. Florence probably won’t be a Cat 4. It is just crazy all this stuff you hear in the news about how unprecedented everything is, and it is all due to global warming. It is like before Y2000 Hurricanes never happened.

Bryan A
Reply to  marque2
September 12, 2018 9:17 pm

Currently reduced to a Cat 2

Alan the Brit
Reply to  Bryan A
September 13, 2018 2:13 am

Thank you my earlier question answered, amazingly the BBC got it right, apart from still calling it a hurricane!

marque2
Reply to  Alan the Brit
September 13, 2018 10:53 am

It is still a hurricane. The core wind speeds have to go below 75mph before they call it a tropical storm.

marque2
Reply to  Bryan A
September 13, 2018 10:52 am

Cat 1’s and 2’s seem to hit NC every 2 – 3 years. I wonder if it will drop to 1 tomorrow.

marque2
Reply to  Cascadian
September 13, 2018 10:51 am

Correct never had a Cat 2 hurricane hit land before evah. And severe rain and floods haven’t happened since the Bible’s Noah.

marque2
September 12, 2018 7:16 pm

“However, the warm coastal water is not the only reason that the Carolinas may be hit by one of the strongest hurricanes to ever make landfall at such a northerly latitude in this region.”

Come on the last Cat 4 storm to hit North Carolina was 1954 – This isn’t a strongest ever to make landfall event. 1954 was not that long ago, maybe its a 100 year event. And it is is hitting the southern most part of the state. Of course now the hurricane looks like it will hit at Cat 3 – in 1996, 1993, 1985, 1958, 1954(cat4), 1899, 1878 there were Cat 3 plus events. Doesn’t seem all that rare. Seems like about once every 15 years or so.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  marque2
September 12, 2018 8:00 pm

Wind speed is now down to 110mph.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Tom Abbott
September 12, 2018 8:02 pm

Cat 2

Jim
Reply to  Tom Abbott
September 12, 2018 8:30 pm

It’s predicted to hit as a Cat 1 as well.

marque2
Reply to  Tom Abbott
September 13, 2018 10:54 am

Cat 1s and 2’s hit NC every 2 – 3 years. They are actually quite common.

Tom in Florida
Reply to  Tom Abbott
September 12, 2018 8:10 pm

As all of us in hurricane prone areas know, you prepare for the worse and hope for the best. This is the case here. As the pressure seems to be rising at the time of this post, the wind is coming down. However, we also know that most of the damage and death is due to water not wind and this is going to be a huge water maker so no one is out of the woods yet no matter what the actual winds are when it comes ashore.

Steven Fraser
Reply to  Tom in Florida
September 12, 2018 9:18 pm

The onshore wind will be impressive on the north side of the eye.

(nc)
September 12, 2018 9:08 pm

The tv news I was watching had some climate scientist stating that climate change is slowing down the passage of hurricanes. I am surmising he knows the intensity is dropping and over the years the number of hurricanes is dropping, so that wailing alarm is failing so now its the slowing of passage is the new alarm.

AGW is not Science
Reply to  (nc)
September 13, 2018 9:32 am

Yes ignore that blocking high, it’s climate change what dunnit. The people who call themselves “climate scientists” have permanently degraded the title “scientist.” It is truly disgusting the contortions they will go through to prop up the propaganda.

ren
September 12, 2018 10:01 pm

Florence moves north and weakens.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=nwatl&product=wv-mid
Surface temperature of the North Atlantic.
comment image

Wim Röst
Reply to  ren
September 13, 2018 1:18 am

An interesting map. Florence developed near the African coast where cold deep waters are welling up. Over there heavy colder and less humid air over cold oceans met patches of warmer and much more humid air from the South that was forced upwards by the more heavy air from the north. Together with the Coriolis force a depression developed.

Florence developed first near the Cape Verde islands as shown by the green circle here: https://earth.nullschool.net/#2018/09/01/0600Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=327.73,27.88,438/loc=-25.610,15.165

By using Shift K you can go forward in time with steps of a day. Shift J brings you backwards.

It is the combination of temperature and moisture (a water vapor molecule is less heavy than O2 and N2 molecules) that enhances the development of a tropical storm to a hurricane.

The development of a hurricane shows well how processes in the oceans and in the atmosphere interact and cause our weather. And the average of 30 year of weather is called ‘climate’.

So we know the origin of our climate. It is the interaction of two chaotically behaving fluids, oceans and the atmosphere, each acting on a different time scale.

In the connection between the two it is water vapor that plays the main role. And water vapor is our main absorbing gas as well. It should get all attention.

Looking at this stunning video of Florence, what I see acting is: water vapor. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/images/loop_of_the_day/goes-16/20180910000000/video/20180910000000_florence.gif

Ed Zuiderwijk
September 13, 2018 12:22 am

Florence has now, thursday 8 UT, dropped to cat 2. Windspeed from 145 two days ago to 110 now. In another 24 hours it may cease to be a hurricane at all.
Helene is a cat 1, just, and on the way north and out. Isac is an ordinary tropical storm.

Looks like the forecasters have overegged the danger a bit.

ren
Reply to  Ed Zuiderwijk
September 13, 2018 12:44 am

Hurricanes in the Atlantic are broken by a jet stream.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=atl&product=wv-mid

ralfellis
Reply to  ren
September 13, 2018 3:01 am

Nice graphic.

But hurricanes are also expanded and weakened by moving too far north. The further north they go the more coriolis ‘force’ they experience, and the more they widen and weaken. Which is why all tight and intense hurricanes and typhoons are tropical features.

R

Campbell
September 13, 2018 5:02 am

Already down graded and wind sheer will rip it apart.

September 13, 2018 5:26 am

OK…so what happened? Did the ocean suddenly get cooler last night? Why, this morning, did I find that the storm is now a category 2? What caused the sudden, dramatic, and apparently completely unexpected, decrease in intensity?

Reply to  Sailorcurt
September 13, 2018 9:49 am

Dry air will choke & suppress a tropical cyclone just like cooler water. Same thing happened to Katrina in the Gulf as well.

September 13, 2018 5:38 am

In the meantime, Typhoon Mangkhut which was initially forecast to skim the top north of the Phillipines now looks like it will slam into the middle of the main island in the Phillipines. So my guess from yesterday was right on. Peak winds are at 164 mph. This is still the Big One. …https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-228.98,16.47,1821/loc=129.496,15.537

ScottyB
September 13, 2018 6:37 am

I get that this was published yesterday, however, Florence has dropped 2 categories and is now no longer a major hurricane. Yeah, this sucker is going to drop a ton of rain on NC, northern SC, and Virginia, however, the wind damage is going to be relatively minor in comparison to flooding damage and their “unprecedented” BS is completely and totally busted.

Basically, I’m no meteorologist, but the rate that it’s losing energy makes me hope it’ll drop off even more in the next 24 hours. This probably won’t change the rain situation at all, but it’ll hopefully break up faster than expected due to it’s weakening and not completely drown those areas.

September 13, 2018 7:59 am

I would have thought the gulf stream would have moved the storm north- as in the storm would follow the stream’s path. Is there a high in place north of its current location blocking that from happening?

Is there a website that shows the high’s and low’s in the Atlantic?

David A
Reply to  Joe G
September 14, 2018 4:33 am

Warm water dies not guide or steer hurricanes, they feed them energy when atmospheric conditions form and steer them over warm water.
( just like your gasoline does not steer your cat.)

Paul Penrose
September 13, 2018 10:50 am

Hopefully this hurricane will put to rest that simpleton notion that higher ocean surface temperatures equals more powerful hurricanes. There are a lot of factors that determine a hurricane’s strength, and we still don’t know what they all are or their relative contributions.

Edwin
September 13, 2018 12:08 pm

However as of 3:00PM Thursday Florence has lost strength although it is expanded and slowed down. Biggest problem from Florence will be flooding due to weeks of rain prior to the storm and that Florence slowed.

2hotel9
September 13, 2018 4:19 pm

Apparently it took energy away, instead, since Flo down graded as she moved towards shore. Fewer and fewer reasons to believe anything “these” people have to say.

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