Guest essay by Eric Worrall
A press release for a new study suggests milk production in Britain will drop by 18.6% if we don’t mend our wicked ways. But buried in the study itself is an obvious mitigation strategy.
How climate change will affect dairy cows and milk production in the UK – new study
August 22, 2018 10.23pm AEST
The unusually hot summer of 2018 has proved challenging for farmers across the UK. Among other things, the scorching weather and lack of rain has damaged crops, and the grass used to feed farm animals too.
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For our recent study, our team looked at how climate change might impact UK milk production, given what we already knew about how it affects dairy cows. In particular, we wanted to quantify the effects of heat stress on milk production.
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Using 11 different climate projection models, and 18 different milk production models, we estimated potential milk loss from UK dairy cows as climate conditions change during the 21st century. Given this information, our final climate projection analysis suggests that average ambient temperatures in the UK will increase by up to about 3.5℃ by the end of the century. This means that This during the summer, in some parts of the country, will lead to significant heat stress for cows if nothing is done to alleviate the hot weather’s effects.
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However, climate change projections also suggest the UK would experience more heatwaves, and these would lead to even greater losses of milk. For example, the hottest area (south-east England) in the hottest year in the 2090s is predicted to result in an annual milk loss exceeding 1,300kg/cow, which is about 18.6% of annual milk yield.
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The abstract of the study;
Spatially explicit estimation of heat stress-related impacts of climate change on the milk production of dairy cows in the United Kingdom
Nándor Fodor, Andreas Foskolos, Cairistiona F. E. Topp, Jon M. Moorby, László Pásztor, Christine H. Foyer
Published: May 8, 2018Dairy farming is one the most important sectors of United Kingdom (UK) agriculture. It faces major challenges due to climate change, which will have direct impacts on dairy cows as a result of heat stress. In the absence of adaptations, this could potentially lead to considerable milk loss. Using an 11-member climate projection ensemble, as well as an ensemble of 18 milk loss estimation methods, temporal changes in milk production of UK dairy cows were estimated for the 21st century at a 25 km resolution in a spatially-explicit way. While increases in UK temperatures are projected to lead to relatively low average annual milk losses, even for southern UK regions (<180 kg/cow), the ‘hottest’ 25×25 km grid cell in the hottest year in the 2090s, showed an annual milk loss exceeding 1300 kg/cow. This figure represents approximately 17% of the potential milk production of today’s average cow. Despite the potential considerable inter-annual variability of annual milk loss, as well as the large differences between the climate projections, the variety of calculation methods is likely to introduce even greater uncertainty into milk loss estimations. To address this issue, a novel, more biologically-appropriate mechanism of estimating milk loss is proposed that provides more realistic future projections. We conclude that South West England is the region most vulnerable to climate change economically, because it is characterised by a high dairy herd density and therefore potentially high heat stress-related milk loss. In the absence of mitigation measures, estimated heat stress-related annual income loss for this region by the end of this century may reach £13.4M in average years and £33.8M in extreme years.
Read more: http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0197076
Here’s a thought – even if the predicted warming occurs, why not import heat tolerant dairy cattle from regions which have already had to adapt to warm conditions?
NZ heat-tolerant breed launched in US
06 Jul, 2017 04:00 AM
New Zealand’s Dairy Solutionz launched its Kiwipole breed at the Tulare World Ag Expo event in California earlier this year, in partnership with STGenetics.
Slick Pathos, Slick Eros and its brother Slick Himeros are believed to be the world’s first homozygous slick dairy-type bulls available for export semen sales. The bulls will transmit the heat tolerance associated with the “slick gene” to all of their daughters.
Dairy Solutionz has developed the Kiwipole through natural breeding and introgression of the Senepol slick gene. The aim is a 100 per cent Bos taurus animal that potentially has the same heat tolerance as Bos indicus breeds, but without the negative milkability traits that can be present in the Bos indicus breeds.
The slick genes better regulate body temperature while maintaining milk yield under heat stress. University of Florida research shows the cows can generate up to four litres more milk a day (Dikmen 2014) with a calving interval improvement of almost two months (Ortiz 2015) for cows under heat stress.
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The scientists who wrote this handwringing climate study are aware of the potential for importing warm climate varieties of dairy cattle, and the potential of future genetic advances. Not one word of this in their press release, though they mention this possibility in their study.
… These models were used to estimate milk loss in each grid cell without taking into account the type of dairy farming system (at pasture vs indoors). It was assumed that temperature and relative humidity were the same for all systems, and that no mitigation practices were implemented. We also assumed that cattle were not significantly different from the current UK breed types, even though breeding for heat stress tolerance is one of the proposed measures to mitigate effects of climate change on dairy farms …
Read more: http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0197076
Availability of milk for children is a serious issue in Britain; between Britain’s green policy inflated energy bills and ongoing housing affordability problems, a lot of people in Britain are having a very tough time.
Why frighten people by exaggerating the problem?
There is/was a saying about margarine – as might be found in UK shops & supermarkets.
It went along the lines of expressing astonishment – at how the manufacturers of the stuff had achieved the miracle of getting a mixture of water & air to ‘stand up’ and somehow become solid.
IOW: It said the stuff was Totally Content & Nutrient Free Junk
Here we have ‘Margarine Science’
Of course I cannot say that without giving some reason so here’s just *one* tiny example of the Reality Disconnect these people are living in:
or example, the hottest area (south-east England) in the hotte…..
OK OK – In the South East England on the parallel Planet Zog there *may* be some number of dairy cows but in the SE England of Planet Earth, there are hardly any.
Did they go look? Methinks not.
One thing they maybe *do* want to get their pretty little muddled heads around is their precious Biofuel crop.
In fields around me, last year the maize crops destined for the local digester(s) grew easily 7 or 8 feet tall. I know that coz I went out to hide a temperature data-logger in the crop next my house. At one point I wished I’d taken a Sat Nav in there to find my way home.
Tangent:
Some truly entrepreneurial folks have taken to hiding cannabis plantations within Biofuel crops/fields.
Unintended Consequences, doncha just luv them but seemingly cocaine (at least) ‘trading’ is keeping the UK balance-of-payments considerably more buoyant than it might be. Who needs Brexit eh?
End Tangent
But this year, including tassels, the maize Biofuel is *never* more than 4 feet tall, typically just thin midget stuff barely 3 feet tall.
Interesting times as they say although I imagine a spliff or two will make everything alright.
Or prescription Prozac (Opiate for our Colonial Cousins in the US) – as if eating carbs & refined sugar didn’t make everyone dumb & paranoid enough already.
A hand-held mirror periscope works in a cornfield… like found in large golf crowds…
Australian cows survive and give milk in 40 degree heat. You could ask for some. Alarmist bollocks.
Round here in central Scotland the problem has been lack of grass for the cattle to eat which has meant that some of the stored winter feed has been used already. The beasts haven’t minded the heat much.
“Using 11 different climate projection models, and 18 different milk production models, we estimated potential milk loss from UK dairy cows as climate conditions change during the 21st century. ”
Yawn, zzzzzzzzzzzz………..
I wonder what world these researchers live on. Here in NZ, which I am sure most people would agree is warmer than the UK, there is no problem with dairy cattle producing milk. NZ is the largest exporter of milk and milk products in the world. Most dairy cattle are either Jersey, Guernsey or Holstein cattle, or a mixture of these breeds. They spend their entire life outdoors except for the short periods when they are being milked (there may be limited exceptions in areas that have high snowfall in winter I’m not sure). Jersey and Guernsey are British breeds (strictly Channel Islands which are little south of the British mainland and the Holsteins are from western Germany Denmark area which tends to have greater extremes of temperature than Britain. The breeds are all ready in existence to counteract any hypothetical increase in temperature and they are from much the same region as Britain.
Where is everyone’s faith in evolution?
Usual extrapolative doom laden whataboutery. We’ve had a hot dry summer and grass growth has slowed to nothing until it rained again, requiring additional feed for milch cows. No milk shortages though as in hot weather people drink less milk.
Homogenisation has killed the taste of milk. The promotion of skimmed milk slop together with sugar free as a “healthier” option for one’s cup of tea has made the drink nastier and resulted in declining sales of tea.
“Usual extrapolative doom laden whataboutery.”
That made me laugh! 🙂
Elsewhere is a debate on legislating a definition of milk to exclude a plethora of products that have nothing to do with bovines.
I was raised on the last commercial raw milk in the Santa Clara Valley. On a cold morning the cream stood inches above the neck of the bottle.
Accuracy in pictures—that is a picture of a bull (cattle) which you eat—-not milk. As you can see NO TEATS!!
Why frighten people? That’s the whole point.
Lie as much as you want in order the make the people afraid and then make then do what YOU want not them. Using the climate models, and so many of them sounds as if they are really doing things. If the models worked, there would be only one to use, as it would be the best. They use many models because none of them work and they pretend that the average of the garbage produced by these models should be considered food.
That’s why politicians are constantly coming up with crises. That’s why they will never really solve the water supply problem in California, as it would kill a wonderful, money-making, election-winning crisis that they can constantly blame on others and claim that they can (but won’t) fix if they are elected.
Our responsibility is to point out the lies and misdirection as best we can.
Even with less milk production, apparently teat-sucking will continue apace in the UK.
Regarding a warmer climate, if it did happen:
They ingenuously assume that a warmer climate means hotter temperatures. The warming could just as well be at night, which thus raises the average temperature, or summers could become longer, not necessarily hotter, and winters become shorter and less cold, more mild. That means a longer growing season for our crops and warmer nights means that they can continue to grow more at night more than they do now, as night time temperatures would be higher.
Generally, below 45 deg F, many plants stop growing.
Cows living in broken computer models.
So there should be no milk in texas but their is , fifteen days of 105 + temperatures and the dairies round here are doing just fine , more fake science .
The decline of Political Global Warming as a serious topic involves many milestones in the trivialization process. The Brits will not be outdone.
Gorebal Worming could, and quite probably will, in fact have a negative effect on dairy production though not for the reasons alluded to in the article. EcoFascists like Ca. Gov. Brown et.al. who wish to eliminate bovine eructations and flatus will decimate the dairy herds and lead to a vastly decreased milk production.
So, import the stuff then.
Typical alarmist study.
If we leave everything exactly as it is, then raise temperature, this is what will happen.
The notion that farmers would buy cows that are better adapted to heat, and plant crops that are better adapted to heat is completely foreign to these professors.
Wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest to learn that they have never set foot on a farm or even outside a city.
Let’s see — climate projection models applied at the regional level (no skill demonstrated or claimed), models of milk production reliant on that, and assuming absolutely no adaptation despite knowing full well that farmers adapt. Sounds like what passes for an economic impact study in climate science.
Here’s a radical thought–we know that the mean temperature has gone up by about 1C since the late nineteenth century. Why not compare milk production per cow from then until now?
Now you might object that that there were far more important changes than the trivial anomaly change that impacted productivity between then and now. Heck, a quick google search shows that yield per cow in the UK has gone up 9.4% just between 2006 and 2016! (No, that’s not the result of temperature change in the UK, which has been trivial in that span.) During the modern warming period if any climatic damage actually exists on production (dubious) that tiny effect has been absolutely swamped by improvements in modern agriculture (which like everything else in the economy is largely fossil-fueled).
Which brings us back to the projections. Even if using climate models at the regional level wasn’t junk, and even if the global anomaly went to +3.5C by the end of the century despite warming less than a degree since 1950, and even if their milk loss models from high stress were accurate (I suppose at least that is possible), that single region in that single year that had a (simulated) heat wave and produced 17% less milk per cow than is produced today — but unless dairy makes no improvements at all between then and now, that 17% off impact will still produce considerably *higher* rates than the yield today. Between 2001 and 2016 the production went from 6,346 litres per cow to 7,636 litres per cow, increasing from year to year. (The yearly list I found doesn’t go back further than 2001, but whitelies.org, an anti-dairy-practice site focused on the UK, claims production in 1970s was 3,750 litres per cow. So production has *doubled* per cow in my lifetime, and we’re supposed to be alarmed that one small region in one hot year in the 2090s might have an impact of 17% of today’s level? Why highlight this?
The economic impact “may reach” 13.4 million pounds in an average year. Is that a lot? Google tells me UK milk production in the 52 weeks ending June 2017 was at 5.5 billion litres, and the farmgate milk price averaged 27.93 pence over the five years preceding that, so about 1.5 billion pounds. So compared to today’s market, we’re talking about an impact of 1% from an additional 2.5C by the end of the century, given absolutely no adaptation. Houston, we don’t really have a problem.
England, getting too warm? As all the descriptions of GB describe it as rather cold now, 3 degrees warmer might actually bring the daytime high up to 20C?
“Using 11 different climate projection models, and 18 different milk production models”
Stop there. This is mathematical onanism. There is no reason to read any further. We are not talking about anything other than fun with numbers, no more meaningful than a Sudoku puzzle.
Garbage in garbage out
In the future British kids won’t know what real science looks like.
In the US, the dairy cows seem to be in the hottest parts of the country. In California, they are in the central valley and Imperial valley where temps over 100 degrees F are commonplace, and the norm for summer. I see dairy cattle in Texas under similar conditions.
I think this problem has somehow been solved already even without the New Zealand heat tolerant cows. If England has trouble, just import some Texas cattle.
Only if they kill the industry.
Climate models X milk production models X bare assed assumptions that suit our inflammatory paper = be scared, be very scared.