UPDATES AND LIVE CAM LINK FOLLOWS
The battle of the weather forecast computer models is about to be waged. Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. writes on Twitter:
So far, it looks like ECMWF had best handle on hurricane. Nonetheless, @NWSHonolulu has been doing an excellent job that will save lives. @RyanMaue @richardabetts @BigJoeBastardi @CliffMass @curryja @NWSDirector @USWeatherExpert @WeatherTalk https://t.co/kEvCi5Eik8
— Roger A. Pielke Sr (@RogerAPielkeSr) August 23, 2018
If ECMWF is correct..will further cement role as leading global model. But if its wrong….it will elevate USA & other models
@NWSDirector @WeatherTalk @CliffMass @BigJoeBastardi @RyanMaue @curryja @richardabetts If ECMWF is right, however, there should be post mortem as to why
Here’s the latest animation of the Hurricane via infrared satellite view, along with the projected storm tracks from the USA models.
And here are some still images showing radar and cloud cover imaged in infrared:
Now, here is the ECMWF (European) model via Dr. Ryan Maue at weathermodels.com
The ECMWF has some tracks steering the storm into Maui and also Oahu.
Let’s hope it’s wrong.
UPDATE: Dr. Ryan Maue adds on Twitter –
Hurricane Iniki was racing north … moving at a significantly faster clip than #HurricaneLane.
The flooding threat from Lane is likely worse than advertised by any weather model. The topography or mountain induced rainfall will be measured in feet.
— Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com (@RyanMaue) August 23, 2018
wow GFS either major coup or horrible bust ( I think the latter) every day it turns it northeast, but each day it does so further west, But this would be ugly, hit east central islands in 36 hours.. . CHPC hot buying it I like the euro pic.twitter.com/jsPiAnqXhp
— Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) August 23, 2018
UPDATE: 4:20PM PDT
It seems the forecast tracks are staring to look more Northwesterly, following the actual persistence track.
UPDATE: 630PM PDT
BREAKING: National Weather Service says Hurricane Lane has been downgraded to a Category 3 storm.
— The Associated Press (@AP) August 24, 2018
The center of Lane went over the data buoy, There were GUSTS to 107, IMO this is a cat 2 hurricane now, Does not change threat to Hawaii which is mainly from excessive rain, but just an observation based on pressure rises and actual obs pic.twitter.com/ratYMxxuIg
— Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) August 24, 2018
LiveCam at Waikiki Beach: