UPDATES AND LIVE CAM LINK FOLLOWS
The battle of the weather forecast computer models is about to be waged. Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. writes on Twitter:
If ECMWF is correct..will further cement role as leading global model. But if its wrong….it will elevate USA & other models
@NWSDirector @WeatherTalk @CliffMass @BigJoeBastardi @RyanMaue @curryja @richardabetts If ECMWF is right, however, there should be post mortem as to why
Here’s the latest animation of the Hurricane via infrared satellite view, along with the projected storm tracks from the USA models.
And here are some still images showing radar and cloud cover imaged in infrared:
Now, here is the ECMWF (European) model via Dr. Ryan Maue at weathermodels.com
The ECMWF has some tracks steering the storm into Maui and also Oahu.
Let’s hope it’s wrong.
UPDATE: Dr. Ryan Maue adds on Twitter –
UPDATE: 4:20PM PDT
It seems the forecast tracks are staring to look more Northwesterly, following the actual persistence track.
UPDATE: 630PM PDT
BREAKING: National Weather Service says Hurricane Lane has been downgraded to a Category 3 storm.
— The Associated Press (@AP) August 24, 2018
LiveCam at Waikiki Beach: