NOAA forecasters lower Atlantic hurricane season prediction

Conditions in the ocean and the atmosphere are conspiring to produce a less active Atlantic hurricane season than initially predicted in May, though NOAA and FEMA are raising caution as the season enters its peak months.

“There are still more storms to come – the hurricane season is far from being over. We urge continued preparedness and vigilance,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

Seasonal forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center have increased the likelihood of a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60 percent (up from 25 percent in May) in the updated outlook, issued today. The likelihood of a near-normal season is now at 30 percent, and the chance of an above-normal season has dropped from 35 percent to 10 percent.

For the entire season, which ends Nov. 30, NOAA predicts a total of 9-13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater) of which 4-7 will become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), including 0-2 major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater).

So far, the season has seen four named storms, including two hurricanes. An average six-month hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

This outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. Landfalls are largely determined by short-term weather patterns, which are only predictable within about one week of a storm potentially reaching a coastline.

To produce the seasonal update, forecasters take several factors into account. El Nino is now much more likely to develop with enough strength to suppress storm development during the latter part of the season. Today, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updated its forecast to a nearly 70 percent likelihood of El Nino during the hurricane season.

 

Additionally, sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea have remained much cooler than average. A combination of stronger wind shear, drier air and increased stability of the atmosphere in the region where storms typically develop will further suppress hurricanes. Storm activity to-date and the most recent model predictions also contribute to this update.

“Today’s updated outlook is a reminder that we are entering the height of hurricane season and everyone needs to know their true vulnerabilities to storms and storm surge,” said FEMA Administrator Brock Long. “Now is the time to know who issues evacuation orders in their community, heed the warnings, update your insurance and have a preparedness plan. Don’t let down your guard, late season storms are always a possibility, always keep your plans updated.”

NOAA also urges coastal residents to make sure they have their hurricane preparedness plans in place and to monitor the latest forecasts as we move into peak hurricane season.

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arthur4563

Urging “continued vigilance” is a rather dopey thing to say when there are no Canes on the way.

joelobryan

Fear is control.
The Fall is hurricanes.
The Winter is deadly cold & blizzards.
The Spring is tornadoes.
The Summer is lethal heat waves.

Capiche?

RAH

Continued vigilance is part of what we pay them for.

Don’t discount TS formation. It can still happen and we’re heading into the meat of the season now with the GFS showing the MJO moving to zones 2 and 3. So cooler than average SSTs, dry air and dust in the MDR and sheer from the west does not rule out development. The place that looks the most conducive for a hurricane to hit is the eastern sea board from the Carolinas north where SSTs are warmer than average and sheer and dust are not a factor.

So don’t crow folks because you might end up eating it.

Joe E

The reason for ‘crowing’ is that that the AGW folks ‘crow’ about never ending, longer, stronger storms and utter death and destruction due to man made activities. Now, of course, it is problematic for them when normal, typical, usual and predictable events unrelated to AGW will somehow stop these destructive events from occurring. How could that happen? Isn’t the whole AGW meme based on ‘un-natural, human’ interference with the climate?

just saying

Tweak

Crow? I did a 3 hr ride-out in Ivans eastern eyewall. I didn’t see any crows. I did see some strange non local bugs afterwards though.

MarkW

Hurricanes can spin up from tropical storms in less than a day.

Wade

Example: The 1935 Labor Day hurricane. (This is the one alluded to in the movie Key Largo.) On August 31, it was a tropical storm. On September 1, it was a category 5 hurricane. Imagine if that happened today … the cries of a new normal and other factless caterwauling will originate from the environs.

Or Hurricane Camille. On August 14 it was a tropical storm. On August 15 it was a category 2 hurricane when it barely made landfall in Cuba. On August 17 it was a category 5 hurricane.

shrnfr

But, but, but CO2 causes hurricanes and we have more CO2 now.

ron

according to Al’s theory, with elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations, should we not be experiencing more intense hurricanes?

John Harmsworth

Who could possibly listen to Al drone on long enough to find out what he says?

Javert Chip

Wild-assed guess: his masseuse?

Here’s the thing to remember.
comment image

Tom Halla

Oh well, it is a midterm election year in the US, so the fundraising the green blob would try to run off the hurricane threat due to global warming will go to congressional campaigns instead.

Latitude

Lord I need this job….
Update your prediction every month…and then give such a wide range you can’t lose

..and claim you’re spot on at the end

Latitude

..and then start calling tropical and extra tropical storms CYCLONES…..and name them so they sound really really scary

…..to make yourself look important

F. Leghorn

Don’t forget “sub”tropical storms get names too. Now if they could just come up with enough names they could start naming dust devils.

Foghorn – for I guess it is indeed you –
I am astounded that NOAA doesn’t name dust devils.

The [UK] Met Office names every passing cloud now.
Keeps them busy ahead of Brexit.
And, of course, raises the fear level – it [really] is worse than we thought!!

Except most Brits over about fifteen have seen it all before.

We get weather here, you see.
Don’t like the weather? – no problem; wait an hour and we’ll show you a couple of different seasons!

Auto

Sandyb

I guess you are allowed to change your bet once the race is half over. I think I’ll try that at Belmont Park.

Latitude

They’re just saying they can’t predict sh1t

Javert Chip

Didn’t some old basketball hack just get caught doing this in a casino?

I’m surprised the Italian guys didn’t take him out back and teach him how to count to “ouch” real quick.

So, around November 5 or so, what excuses are CO2 alarmists going to make about fewer hurricanes? — CO2 lags severe hurricane seasons ? … OR … It’s just what we expected, yadah, yadah, yadah, complex, contrived explanation that sounds good? … OR … silence?

Nah, silence is probably out of the question. It’ll probably be the most creative explanation yet about the magical molecule.

John Harmsworth

AGW has achieved consciousness and is just sandbagging us!

Kenw

All that dust blowing this way is definitely keeping a lid on things.

Latitude

///other than the red tide

ossqss
Patrick B

You know what NOAA doesn’t provide in any of these forecasts? How accurate their forecasts have been in the last 50 years. Nor do they give you data as to what the average season actually results in; the spread is so small it’s easy to look like the prediction is close and thus has some validity.

We could save a lot of tax dollars and lose nothing by eliminating the offices/grants that produce these “predictions”.

RAH

“You know what NOAA doesn’t provide in any of these forecasts? How accurate their forecasts have been in the last 50 years.”

About as accurate as a blindfolded chimp throwing darts.

RAH
Was the chimp drunk?

Auto
Just askin’!

joelobryan

As long as the Left gets a Cat1 landfalling somewhere in the next 3 months they will smugly declare “This is Climate Change you can see.”

StanVinson

What you say is true, but they don’t need an actual Cat1 to start the 3 ring circus. A TS can be made into the mother-of-all storms.

Red94ViperRT10

I’m starting to wonder about this… when a storm is well out to sea and not many people around to actually measure and argue with them, it’s a Cat 5, even Cat 6! And that same storm, just half a day later, comes ashore across the Florida Keys and can’t even knock over an unanchored Port-A-Potty. What’s up with that? Yes, I’m looking at you, Hurricane Irma!

Rob Dawg

My record in the 8th inning for predicting the outcome of a baseball game is better than theirs.

Alan Tomalty

Why would we believe anything that NOAA SAYS WHEN THEY HAVE SUCH A FAKE GRAPH AS THIS ONE ON THEIR SITE?

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature

Sandyb

Just wasted an hour on that NOAA website. WHAT UNMITIGATED taxpayer funded CRAP!

Alan Tomalty

Here is the truth . NASA generated global temperature graph.
comment image

ResourceGuy
Alan Tomalty

The one you pointed to isnt up to date. I referred to the UAH data site as the only one both sides trust.

Alan Tomalty

That graph by NASA was made before they too started faking the temperature data. The problem is that the little warming we have had since the lowest temp in the little ice age 1C per century has been going on for more than 300 years. The alarmists are blaming this warming all on CO2. However we didnt have SUV’S IN THE 1700 AND 1800’S. I guess that this whole global warming hoax wont go away until we hit another dip in the temps which may not be for another decade or so. Meanwhile the ice sheets will not have melted all this time and the sea level will not have risen any more than usual. The only thing that the alarmists can claim is their fake graphs by NOAA as presented above. So by faking the temperature data NOAA keeps the whole hoax alive. The only temperature data that both sides trust is the UAH satellite data. Because the satellite data started in 1979, a period of cooling, their long term trend looks like warming. However even their data will eventually show cooling and then there wont be anything that the alarmists can cling to as showing any proof of global warming. Sigh . Meanwhile the hoax continues.

Alan Tomalty

After more thought, the whole climate change/global warming hoax is really a monstrous Ponzi scheme. To keep up the alarm sites like NOAA and NASA will have to continue adjusting the future temperatures higher and higher , because if they don’t, a plateau of temperatures will negate the whole CAGW meme. So just like Ponzi scheme operators, they have to keep upping the ante, so that eventually the global anomalies will grow to 5-6 real degrees C. The problem with that is people will start noticing that hey HOW COME MY AREA DOESNT SHOW THIS TEMPERATURE INCREASE? And with nobody drowning because of sea level rise and no-one self immolating because of the heat and no permanent icecap melting, then how will the hoax be able to continue? Guys like Michael Mann don’t care about this because they will have been able to ride this hoax for their whole career. The problem is the young climate scientists who have invested their money and time, will all go down the drain when the hoax finishes. Thus just like all Ponzi schemes, it is a 1 generation time frame scheme. Actually most Ponzi schemes dont last that long but you get the point. By the time the hoax ends climate scientists like Michael Mann will be long retired.

Sara

Just so you know, Accuweather frequently gets its forecasts wrong, backtracks to cover itself, and says it’s foggy or raining or whatever, when anyone who is not blind can see that the sky is as clear as a bell.

This is going to be those “interesting times” we hear about now and then.

Alley

Yes, it is “all faked.” They adjusted the temps to show less warming.

Satellite data is faked. It does not measure temps directly, and is “faked” to look like land station temps.

Why do all scientists conspire to fool Alan?

Louis Hunt

Actually, they’re conspiring to fool Alley, and seem to be doing a pretty good job of it too.

R Hall

Reminds me of the financial “crisis” in 2008; they sold faulty credit instruments and then had to prop them up with evermore shaky derivatives that in the end were worthless. Essentially a fraud all around.
So the rocket scientists who went to Wall Street learned their “science” at the same time as the the climate “scientists” peddling the current fraud.

Tweak

No, not scientists. A Quant named David X. Li developed the risk MODEL for those derivatives.

(However, he did advise that it only worked until it doesn’t)

https://www.wired.com/2009/02/wp-quant/

F. Leghorn

Why do all trolls use straw men?

MarkW

Because real men are too scary.

Alan Tomalty

Alley like all alarmists, you dont pay attention. I am one of the few here who are constantly saying that the UAH satellite data is the only temperature data that both sides trust.

MarkW

Alley doesn’t pay attention to what people actually say. He’s responding to a higher truth.

MarkW

I see Alley is still being paid to proclaim that satellite data looks like land data.

Simon

“Why do all scientists conspire to fool Alan?”
Coz he bites…

Bob Burban

” … and everyone needs to know their true vulnerabilities to storms and storm surge,” said FEMA Administrator Brock Long. So what is the difference between a ‘vulnerability’ and a ‘true vulnerability’?

Javert Chip

Vulnerability is when you’re stupid enough to believe FEMA forecasts.

True vulnerability is when 10 feet of ocean rolls over your house.

mikewaite

I see that they have (so far as I know) resisted the temptation to call a hurricane : Donald

wharfplank

If you cover every possible scenario released quietly in dribs and drabs well after the sky is falling initial prediction, you WILL fill up the BINGO card of CAGW players.

ResourceGuy

CO2 causes scary, unpredictable hurricanes…..and more of them when and if they occur. Got that?

u.k.(us)

She chortles at our attempts to predict Her mood.

nankerphelge

This won’t make any Headline of significance.
However the wildfires and heatwaves will.

rbabcock

And in other news, the number of tornadoes in the US this year is near record lows.

Red94ViperRT10

No headline there either. It just doesn’t have that “umph”!

John Harmsworth

What to say about this? Firstly, it’s getting to be standard for all weather forecast performances ( that’s what a lot of them are). For reality, divide the forecast by 2 and then maybe add 1. After you’ve done that to get a grip on the panic level, realize that whatever the forecast is, it means nothing if you’re not in the path and a Hell of a lot more if you are. Then go about your business.

Dave Bidwell

“…increased the likelihood of a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60 percent (up from 25 percent in May” is the definition of a bust, or blown forecast. Reduced funding and salaries for next year.

R Hall

Does this mean the models were wrong? Oh, the humanity!

Louis Hunt

“…the chance of an above-normal season has dropped from 35 percent to 10 percent.” — NOAA

Don’t listen to those idiots at NOAA. “We are seeing our predictions come true,” says Michael Mann, as he prepares yet another lawsuit to go after NOAA for contradicting his recent conclusion that extreme weather is the new normal and that the impacts of global warming are now “playing out in real time”. How dare they forecast a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season within days of my pronouncement. Don’t these blasphemers know I am the god of climate change?

Don

Having lived through Hugo I have learned that it only takes one.

2hotel9

August 8 they pop out this “prediction”? And my money pays these incompetent f,,,,,,people? And they can not figure out why so many Americans refuse to accept their lies about climate change? Oy, talk about f*cking stupidity.

Michael Jankowski

Mann will likely not be able to celebrate the misfortunes associated with hurricanes hitting the US this year.

How long until he co-authors a paper finding the fingerprints of CO2 all over the California wildfires?

Red94ViperRT10

Only because he handled the graph after it printed and before the ink dried.

ren

The surface temperature of the Pacific indicates that hurricanes in the Pacific will move closer to the 20th latitude.
comment image

ren

The jet stream in the Atlantic continue to hinder the formation of hurricanes.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=atl&product=wv-mid

ResourceGuy

Backing this up just a bit, we need to monitor butterfly wing beats on the coast of Ecuador for direct impact on ENSO and hurricane predictions.

ren

The surface temperature of the eastern tropical Atlantic falls again.
comment image

Sara

Well, I am glad to see that they finally got around to naming one of those storms after Little Old Me!

I count 21 in that last of names. Zero to two major hurricanes, down from 1 to 4? I’d “guess” that, if there are any at all, they will not make landfall but will drift around the Atlantic, churn the water a bit, and not much else, BUT: I also think there will be one like Sandy that shows up late to the game and churns the waters of Newfoundland and Labrador and the Maritime Provinces, instead of bothering us.

Sara

I almost forgot this: Accuweather has posted that rather silly story about internet cables drowning in rising ocean waters.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/rising-sea-levels-could-leave-internet-cables-underwater-within-15-years-study-says/70005702
The fact that is is several months old and is full of flaws seems to escape them. They must be losing their audience if they resort to this day-late-dollar-short news meant to scare people.
Just thought I’d drop that info in here, since it first appeared on WUWT a while back.