Guest essay by Eric Worrall
According to scientists China’s irrigation system is increasing humidity, raising the risk of deadly heat combined with humanity exceeding the “wet bulb” limit.
Climate change in China could force 400M to flee killer heatwaves
By Jamie Seidel, News.com.au August 2, 2018 | 4:14pm
Now we know why Beijing is so interested in the South China Sea: Killer heatwaves are set to sweep across northern China within just 50 years. If they don’t leave, 400 million citizens could face a day where they’re left with only hours to live.
And that day will be a pressure cooker.
A report published on July 31 in the science journal Nature Communications details the effect of climate change on China’s great North Plain, which contains the megacities Beijing and Tianjin. The area’s once-fertile open fields have become among the most densely inhabited places on Earth.
But things are warming up. Fast.
“This spot is going to be the hottest spot for deadly heatwaves in the future, especially under climate change,” warned lead author MIT professor Elfatih Eltahir.
…
Read more: https://nypost.com/2018/08/02/climate-change-in-china-could-force-400m-to-flee-killer-heatwaves/
The abstract of the study;
North China Plain threatened by deadly heatwaves due to climate change and irrigation
Suchul Kang & Elfatih A. B. Eltahir
Nature Communications volume 9, Article number: 2894 (2018)North China Plain is the heartland of modern China. This fertile plain has experienced vast expansion of irrigated agriculture which cools surface temperature and moistens surface air, but boosts integrated measures of temperature and humidity, and hence enhances intensity of heatwaves. Here, we project based on an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model simulations that climate change would add significantly to the anthropogenic effects of irrigation, increasing the risk from heatwaves in this region. Under the business-as-usual scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, North China Plain is likely to experience deadly heatwaves with wet-bulb temperature exceeding the threshold defining what Chinese farmers may tolerate while working outdoors. China is currently the largest contributor to the emissions of greenhouse gases, with potentially serious implications to its own population: continuation of the current pattern of global emissions may limit habitability in the most populous region, of the most populous country on Earth.
Read more: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05252-y
My question – if this nightmare ever actually occurs (unlikely – they used RCP8.5 for their projection), why can’t people affected by the heatwave just turn on their air conditioners?
I live on the edge of the tropics. When conditions are hot and humid, the solution is to go inside and switch on the air conditioner. Or jump into the pool.
The interior of the poorly ventilated chemical factory I once worked in frequently hit 130F in Summer. I’m not sure what the humidity inside was, but given the temperature and conditions it must have been pretty spectacular.
I have mown large lawns with a push mower in 115F and 80% humidity. Sometimes the lawn can’t wait, in my part of the world you have to mow once a week in Summer, sometimes more frequently. Occasionally you have to mow the lawn in the middle of a heatwave to discourage snakes from invading your house.
My friends who used to work in an underground mine in Marble Bar, Western Australia laughed at me when I told them about my lawn mowing and factory work experiences. During their old mining job, scorching hot air from the surface of one of the hottest places on Earth used to be pumped into the stifling hot and humid underground mine, to help provide cool relief from even more extreme conditions underground.
Providing you are used to the conditions, you have somewhere cool to rest, and plenty of water to drink (as in gallons per day), working in extremely hot and humid conditions is not the problem the study authors make it out to be.
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Geez, doesn’t anyone study history at all any more. I am re-reading the history of China. Goes back a long way; the written history goes back an amazingly long way. The Central Plains of China have always been the center of Chinese civilization AND also subject to dramatic changes in climate according to their written history. Floods, droughts (were rivers dried up,) extreme cold, heat waves, etc, etc are all recorded.
The Chinese are NOT interested in the South China Sea because of pending climate doom and gloom. It has to do with power and control. They want to control shipping lanes and have access to mineral and petroleum resources. China outside its close surrounding areas have rarely been hegemonic. That appears to have changed. They have stated that the 20th Century was the American Century, the 21st Century will be China’s.
Agree, except that when China is strong and united, it has always been expansionist. This fact has been overlooked because of recent history. despite China’s oppression of Uighurs, Tibetans and other ethnic and religious minorities. And its military action in Korea, Tibet and Vietnam (both for and against the Communist regime there).
Its expansion has usually been checked by running into other expansionist, militarist regimes, as at the Battle of the Talas River in 751, between the forces of the Tang Dynasty and the Abbasid Caliphate and its Tibetan ally.
The Ming Dynasty, after overthrowing the Mongol Yuan, was constantly at war near and far. It’s famous for its commercial fleet, which sailed to Africa. But it also tried to maintain a million man army and had the largest naval dockyards in the world.
“They have stated that the 20th Century was the American Century, the 21st Century will be China’s.” Anyone that doesn’t see/believe this is naive. The question is will China allow Western Cultures to exist as Capitalists and how much of the world will they allow them to control.
Don’t be so pessimistic.
The Chinese are not ten feet tall.
No, but they are numerous, nationalistic and determined. The only way to stop them is a global alliance against China, to include NATO, India and the East Asian states threatened by Han expansionism.
China has the advantage of being an authoritarian state whose leader can focus national efforts. If they have a smart leader, they can make much progress. And they have smart leaders, while those leaders they deal with from other nations are dumb as rocks. Except for Trump.
China doesn’t like the concept of assimilation. They don’t want to merge their society with others. Instead, they want their society and culture to be dominant, so I think China is going to have a lot of trouble in the future getting along with other nations. Those nations are suspicious of China’s motives and this will only grow. They will, however, take China’s money. At least for a while. Until they see the price.
“why can’t people affected by the heatwave just turn on their air conditioners?”
Or if that didn’t suit, let them eat cake.
Oh please, Ryan. First explain how evapotranspiration will raise temperatures or why we shouldn’t dismiss the entire paper as being based purely on junk models that predict such an outcome.
Is this the same theory that because air can hold more water vapor at higher temperature, that it must hold more? That theory that predicts the elusive tropospheric hot spot?
The paper talks about the “integrated measure of temperature and humidity”; otherwise known as the heat index. A week ago here it was in the 90’s but bearable due to lower humidity. This past Saturday it was stifling at 86 because the humidity was through the roof. Warm and humid can be more stressful for humans than hot and dry. This is the point being made, not that the dry-bulb temperature will actually increase. How good the model is…meh.
This is so dumb since I experienced first hand what irrigation does to large parks I worked in. When the ground is dry on the surface it is heating up, but after I irrigate it, it is much cooler even when it is hot air temperature in the region.
I used to manually run irrigation in sensitive areas on hot days to cool it down, which makes a big difference to the grass as they will wilt in the excessive heat.
Since I had to work all day in the summer heat walking and digging a lot, I used to soak my shirt then wring out the excess water, then put it back on me, my it is cold for a while because water is soaking up the heat to point that I don’t even feel the 100 degree heat at all, which can last for 30 minutes.
Nǐ huì shuō zhōngwén ma?
Yes and why do you ask in pinyin?
Oh Eric, there you go again, spoiling the nice scary story of the alarmists once more. Will you ever leave them alone, to frighten us into writing the cheques they desperately want so they can afford their dream holiday house on a tropical island?
China and India cover major share of the world population. Let us see some features:
1. The geographical area of China and India respectively are 9,596, 960 km2 and 3,287, 263 km2
2. Area under agriculture of China and India respectively are 54.7% and 60.5%
3. Area under irrigation in 2012 of China and India respectively are 690,070 km2 and 667,000 km2
4. The population changed from 1950 to 2014 of China and India respectively are 543 million to 1.39 billion and 376 million to 1.27 billion
5. Urban population in 2017 of China and India respectively are 57.9% and 33.5%
In China more people are under urban heat island influence compared to India while both countries with same irrigation. Then how the humidity theory works.
Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy
OMG here we go again with the 16 October photo of the city blanketed with smoke from the annual field stover burning event. That’s CO2-neutral biomass burning there, buddy.
Fortunately for them the modern tractors are build with air con these days.
The article doesn’t mention two options for farmers: drip irrigation at scale as per Israel, and the fact that with rising CO2 the crops need less water so even if it was sprayed, it would be reduced.
As for keeping cool in their homes, the farmers can turn on their air con units powered by hundreds of new coal fired power stations. They will also run their farms with electric tractors obviating the need for diesel and the attendant maintenance.
Their interest in the South China Sea has nothing to do with farmland. Their interest in Southern Africa does. With the rising productivity of higher CO2 they will need lass and less farmland as time goes by.
“My question – if this nightmare ever actually occurs (unlikely – they used RCP8.5 for their projection), why can’t people affected by the heatwave just turn on their air conditioners?”
1. Even in Beijing not every building has Air Con. And when they do the additional load can result
in losing power to the whole building. Like friday. sucked.
2. READ THE ARTICLE
“So, in the 2070s, the day is coming where those farmworkers will die from heat stroke within just six hours — whether they’re resting in the shade or not. Conditions within the cities will be terrible — but survivable through airconditioning.
But food supplies will reach crisis point. And living conditions would be untenable.
Some 400 million people could be forced to flee for cooler climates.”
Why cant farmers turn on AC?
Guess you havent been to a farm in china now have you?
The article explains that with Air con the CITIES will be survivable. But in the countryside
6 hours outside will kill you.
Now will it happen? dunno. When I worked in defense we prepared for a lot of scary scenarios that
never happened.
That’s the beauty of cheap energy Mosher – gives you options.
Leaving aside the question of whether there will be any manual labour in 2070, especially in advanced countries like China, if farms become too hot cheap energy makes it a trivial expense to install and maintain air conditioned cool down booths in strategic locations on the farms, bit like the booths dotted around Singapore Zoo. That way if people overheat they go to a cool room and recover.
Personally I think the climate scenario is ridiculous, and China is one of the most tech savvy places on the planet, so all onerous jobs will be automated way before the alleged crisis date. But even if I’m wrong, cheap energy still provides viable options, even with today’s technology.
Only mad dogs and Englishmen stay out in the mid day sun.
Mr Steve Masher wrote:
“When I worked in defense we prepared for a lot of scary scenarios that
never happened.”
My comment:
No wonder you love the minutia of climate change,
where 100% of the “scenarios” are scary bad news,
but NOTHING BAD ever happens !
“When I worked in defense we prepared for a lot of scary scenarios that
never happened.”
And to think, warmists are still proclaiming that the fact that the military has prepared a scenario for global warming is proof that the military brass is convinced that global warming is going to be bad.
400 million poor do not have air conditioning.
Let them soak in tubs!
Or cool off in the irrigation sprinklers or canals.
All the more reason to ensure their access to cheap energy, education and trade opportunities, so they can stop being poor.
China covers a very large area and has a wide variety of climate zones. If some become uninhabitable others may become more habitable. The warmists assume that warming always makes things worse.
RCP8.5 isn’t happening, so why bother.
The iPhone was introduced in the United States on June 29, 2007; about 11 years ago.
What will China be like in 52+ years?
I need another glass of wine.
the poor who live in dog cages or the coffin rentals will die.
however theres all those mega cities in the desert areas with NO ONE living in them
id say a move there would be easiest?
as for china seas well not many going to fit or even get ONto those mil bases are they?
original authors a bloody idiot!
North China Plain threatened by deadly heatwaves due to climate change and irrigation
Suchul Kang & Elfatih A. B. Eltahir
Nature Communications volume 9, Article number: 2894 (2018)
North China Plain is the heartland of modern China. This fertile plain has experienced vast expansion of irrigated agriculture which cools surface temperature and moistens surface air, but boosts integrated measures of temperature and humidity, and hence enhances intensity of heatwaves. Here, we project based on an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model simulations that climate change would add significantly to the anthropogenic effects of irrigation, increasing the risk from heatwaves in this region. Under the business-as-usual scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, North China Plain is likely to experience deadly heatwaves with wet-bulb temperature exceeding the threshold defining what Chinese farmers may tolerate while working outdoors. China is currently the largest contributor to the emissions of greenhouse gases, with potentially serious implications to its own population: continuation of the current pattern of global emissions may limit habitability in the most populous region, of the most populous country on Earth.
______________________________________________
Well maybe this researchers aren’t too familiar with, acquainted with real world chinese farmers and their famous
Chinese farmers cone straw hats
https://www.google.at/search?q=Chinese+farmer+cone+straw+hats&oq=Chinese+farmer+cone+straw+hats&aqs=chrome.
The people of Russia, Canada, Alaska and the UK will have a bigger problem when their countries disappear under the next ice cap, and most of Northern Europe is Tundra, coming soon in climate change time scales, as surely as our orbit around the sun varies on 100Ka cycles that drive the ice age two state system change. As with the various, larger in both directions, changes that apply regionally, no one alive will notice significant long term change, of course, they may have to adapt a little, using technology if they have it.
The actual global average applies no where and changes VERY slowly. Even the several degrees of an Interglacial event takes c.7Ka. 1 degree every Thousand years, on thousand years is long enough to rebuild a major city 5 times or more. I imagine cities will move up the hill like volcanic hot spot Islands as the oceans rise the 100metres in that time. A terrifying 14mm pa. We can probably handle that, especially as planning for it is rather easy, given the last 9 events. I would do an Athens and put the city above max sea level and have a movable port infrastructure. As with Durban/Jo’burg, Nairobi/Mombassa, Athens/Piraeus, but for different reasons .
Climate change really doesn’t happen in human lifetimes, and isn’t happening as models predicted, it’s happening pretty much as it has for 1 Million years. Why doesn’t someone just point that out? It isn’t made measureably worse by puny people effects as the models claim, measured on what is naturally happening in the upper atmosphere and on the ground..
The ONLY way any taxes justified by climate change can be effective is if they are spent protecting vulnerable areas and the poor people in them who cannot defend themselves., also to deter building in vulnerable areas. Obs.
The science denial of renewable energy as an adequate and reliable source of base load grid supply that also reduces CO2 without the 100% fossil backup needs exposing as well, as that is easy to prove as a simple legalised fraud in costed engineering fact, no consensus required when hard proof is available.
“… it’s happening pretty much as it has for 1 Million years. Why doesn’t someone just point that out?”
Pointing it out has no effect on closed minds. Even 30 years of cooling would not open them.
“The world is ending. It’s all our fault.”
“I’m right.”
“You’re deplorable.”
“So there.”
Instead of talking to the ear-less hand, listen to something twice as interesting coming out of the 50,000 documents released by Trump in November.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ihnqSyUF8pY
The influx of Chinese is already having a dramatically positive effect on home prices here in Canada. The value of my home rose 60,000 dollars in the past year alone. What’s not to like about that? Bring on the heat !!
By 2070 China will be so toxic that people will be held for 72 hours and fed diuretics when they try to leave the country and will be shot on sight if they approach the checkpoints carrying or wearing anything.
I did a few thousand miles of compass and foot traverse geological mapping without an assistant in the Sahel of northern Nigeria in the middle 1960s with temperatures exceeding 45C (113F) and by the end of the day a good weight of rock samples in my rucksack. Admitedly humiditiy was low, but I sparingly sipped from a modest canteen and had to wait until the end of the day to adequately rehydrate. It was like furnace heat but you just accepted it and got acclimatized.
In my case, having been a newspaperboy on the prairies carrying a big bag of papers in July heat of 105F and, as an adult, making hay in eastern Ontario that you chose the hot days for, I had some practice (chronic hayfever bedamned!). Nowadays, they scare everybody with BS “feels like” temperatures. We’ve had some days lately in E Ontario of 32-33C (~90F) and they say” feeks like” 40. Fearful citizens won’t go to the corner store without a bottle of water to sip from. On the prairies in winter we used to call the windchill factor wimpchill factor.
I recall forking haybales onto the wagon in blistering heat, and it was worse up in the loft packing them tight and *arrgh* spreading salt around by hand from a bucket. We were so hot we had to be careful drinking the iced Koolaid – not too much at once so as not to have a heart attack. People really died from doing that so we took it advice seriously.
Hot? I was at the CNE in Toronto once and the Shell Tower temperature sign showed 106 F. They experience nothing like that now. I have experience 46 C and 50 (once) in the southern Lowveld of Swaziland. Some plants grow like crazy in that environment.
This business about the Beijing flatlands (Hebei and Shandong) and irrigation is silly. Plain silly. That is a flat, hot, humid mountain-encircled (two sides) region that has always been like that. It is much “worse” in Moçambique and Tanzania so the authors can’t be talking about human limits. A few weeks ago I was in Beijing and it was 38-39 every day, humid but clear most of the time. If it gets “hotter” it will create more thermals and the ocean breeze will draw in. The thunderstorm hypothesis works on land too.
The food-fear is false. It is warms more, the growing season will be extended and they will grow two crops a year instead of one, like Rwanda.
“not the problem the study authors make it out to be”
Why do I get the feeling that the “study” authors are a bunch of academics who have never pushed a lawn mower in their lives?
When you are a leftist,
you can make any scary claim
about any alleged
coming climate-related disaster
— fellow leftists will take you seriously,
and never question any so-called “study”.
There seems to be a contest for which leftist
can write the scariest climate fairy tale.
I read only the New York Post
summary of the “study”,
and noticed not one word about the serious
environmental problems in China, that
so-called US environmentalists ignore =
real pollution of the air, water and soil.
In the bizarro world of leftists,
real pollution does not matter,
but carbon dioxide, the staff of life,
and airborne plant food,
is mistakenly believed to be “pollution”.
My free climate change blog:
http://www.elOnionBloggle.Blogspot.com
I think they will be forced to move south to warmer climes by 2070.
“In 2070 400 Million Chinese will be Forced to Flee to Colder Climates”
Later in 2070, 400 Million Chinese will be forced to flee to warmer climates as winter comes again.
That’s a lot of snowbirds, but think of the tourism industry!
So they need to migrate toward the equator where the South China Sea is? and militarize the islands as they go? AU logic escapes me. I thought the Chinese communists were doing the territorial grab with sea power for the fossil fuel potential there and the fishing areas to the exclusion of other peoples in the region.
I think Jamie Seidel has passed the ‘dim watt bulb’ limit.