Guest essay by Eric Worrall
According to scientists China’s irrigation system is increasing humidity, raising the risk of deadly heat combined with humanity exceeding the “wet bulb” limit.
Climate change in China could force 400M to flee killer heatwaves
By Jamie Seidel, News.com.au August 2, 2018 | 4:14pm
Now we know why Beijing is so interested in the South China Sea: Killer heatwaves are set to sweep across northern China within just 50 years. If they don’t leave, 400 million citizens could face a day where they’re left with only hours to live.
And that day will be a pressure cooker.
A report published on July 31 in the science journal Nature Communications details the effect of climate change on China’s great North Plain, which contains the megacities Beijing and Tianjin. The area’s once-fertile open fields have become among the most densely inhabited places on Earth.
But things are warming up. Fast.
“This spot is going to be the hottest spot for deadly heatwaves in the future, especially under climate change,” warned lead author MIT professor Elfatih Eltahir.
…
Read more: https://nypost.com/2018/08/02/climate-change-in-china-could-force-400m-to-flee-killer-heatwaves/
The abstract of the study;
North China Plain threatened by deadly heatwaves due to climate change and irrigation
Suchul Kang & Elfatih A. B. Eltahir
Nature Communications volume 9, Article number: 2894 (2018)North China Plain is the heartland of modern China. This fertile plain has experienced vast expansion of irrigated agriculture which cools surface temperature and moistens surface air, but boosts integrated measures of temperature and humidity, and hence enhances intensity of heatwaves. Here, we project based on an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model simulations that climate change would add significantly to the anthropogenic effects of irrigation, increasing the risk from heatwaves in this region. Under the business-as-usual scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, North China Plain is likely to experience deadly heatwaves with wet-bulb temperature exceeding the threshold defining what Chinese farmers may tolerate while working outdoors. China is currently the largest contributor to the emissions of greenhouse gases, with potentially serious implications to its own population: continuation of the current pattern of global emissions may limit habitability in the most populous region, of the most populous country on Earth.
Read more: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05252-y
My question – if this nightmare ever actually occurs (unlikely – they used RCP8.5 for their projection), why can’t people affected by the heatwave just turn on their air conditioners?
I live on the edge of the tropics. When conditions are hot and humid, the solution is to go inside and switch on the air conditioner. Or jump into the pool.
The interior of the poorly ventilated chemical factory I once worked in frequently hit 130F in Summer. I’m not sure what the humidity inside was, but given the temperature and conditions it must have been pretty spectacular.
I have mown large lawns with a push mower in 115F and 80% humidity. Sometimes the lawn can’t wait, in my part of the world you have to mow once a week in Summer, sometimes more frequently. Occasionally you have to mow the lawn in the middle of a heatwave to discourage snakes from invading your house.
My friends who used to work in an underground mine in Marble Bar, Western Australia laughed at me when I told them about my lawn mowing and factory work experiences. During their old mining job, scorching hot air from the surface of one of the hottest places on Earth used to be pumped into the stifling hot and humid underground mine, to help provide cool relief from even more extreme conditions underground.
Providing you are used to the conditions, you have somewhere cool to rest, and plenty of water to drink (as in gallons per day), working in extremely hot and humid conditions is not the problem the study authors make it out to be.
Eric,
Or 400 million Chinese will decide to move to Australia, parts of which at least are cooler than China is supposed to become hot.
They might decide to do that long before 2070 anyway.
The authors plan to retire well before 2070.
Eric,
Autocorrect is not your friend
I think China has been looking at Russia as a possible area into which they can expand.
Of course. Eventually. But for now they need Russia. China’s leaders take a long view.
Tom Abbott
Plenty of ‘space’ in Siberia ( dare I say ‘leibensraum’), plenty of raw materials… and plenty cool weather!
400 million, I’m sure Merkel can arrange for them to come to Europe. She seems to run the place like a cattle ranch and is always on the look out for some new livestock.
Siberia is nearby, 99.9% empty and from there it’s just a short hop to Alaska and not far away is the north Canada; plenty of room for 4-5 billion.
Stop global warming forthwith (! ! ) else the globe will be dominated by (not China but) the Chinese ! /sarc
The wealthy ones are buying Toronto and Vancouver right now.The government in China might have to cut off supplies of rhinocerus horn and grizzly bear penis bone to their men to reduce the problem.
Yes, Australia will call for help at the last minute and New Zealanders will hold a dock workers strike like they did during the build up to the battles at Guadalcanal when others came to save their arse with their lives.
One of Oz’ most notorious exports to the US was Communist International Longshoreman’s Association (union) leader Harry Bridges.
But they can still live in China, right?
Paper is upside-down, anti-physics gibberish. Introducing agriculture and water has a strong cooling effect, and the dry climate winds does not significantly increase humidity. Plants are much cooler than the original rock and sand like a lawn versus gravel.
Consensus “climate science” is upside-down, anti-physics gibberish.
Absolutely. We have experience with large scale irrigation and the data indicates that the result is cooling. link
There are large areas that have been irrigated for years and there’s no evidence that irrigation enhances heat waves. All it took was a quick google to find the above link. IMHO, the folks predicting Chinese heat waves didn’t even do a reasonable literature search. It’s appalling but unsurprising. 🙁
I take back the remark about the literature search. The first author of the paper cited in Eric’s story is the third author in the (2015) paper I linked.
Large scale irrigation is necessary to feed a significantly larger populace. This goes again the small scale agrarian society that the ultra liberals would like to impose upon society. If a study can be utilized to determine the actions of large scale farming could cause potential future damages to the environment, this would bolster their position that a decrease in population is necessary to protect the world.
Common sense is a better model than what they used.
Yes, which is why I was so shocked to read this historical tidbit recently.
“Back in the first part of the 20th century, it was standard procedure by the U.S. Weather Bureau officials to place cotton-region thermometer shelters above grass (or other vegetated ground cover). Even in the Mojave Desert, many, if not most, of the early weather stations were above non-natural, irrigated grassy areas. This undoubtedly caused lower maximums and minimums in temperature! The “above grass” rule was relaxed into the mid-to-late 20th century. The original thinking back then was that thermometer shelter placement above grass would provide better, more consistent and comparable temperature data and records among all stations.”
We have Warmists cooling the past because of TOBS bias, yet this massive systematic artificial cooling effect on older data goes unaddressed?
Yet another of the many factors not accounted for in The Team’s “adjustments”. Only adjustments advancing The Cause count.
thats funny
Globally irigation reduces the temperature by about .2F
That’s because we haven’t irrigated the Nullabor yet.
Do you mean the Nullarbor, literally meaning no trees. It is a word of Latin derivation, not Aboriginal.
So you see the heat wave paper as nonsense, too.
Steven Mosher
“..Globally irigation reduces the temperature by about .2F..”
Gratuitous assertion or fact??
Sorry, you are upside down
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05252-y
That’s actually the paper that Eric already linked in the story. It therefore doesn’t supply any supporting evidence for itself.
“Claim: In 2070 400 Million Chinese will be Forced to Flee to WARMER Climates” FTFY. I’d bet dollars to doughnuts (which used to be pretty good odds, but with inflation is now less than 1:1) that we’ll all be pretty chilly by 2070. Which makes invading the Spratleys an even BETTER idea, since that will be a stepping-stone to the Philippines and Indonesia.
I don’t THINK that this will be a literal “ice age”, and I don’t expect much advance of the glaciers, but I _D_ think we’ll all be longing for that “global warming” to come back by, probably, 2050 or so. Before which I’ll be safely dead.
Indonesia is a stepping stone to Australia.
And China doesn’t want or need the whole of Malaysia and Indonesia. Just the oily bits and enough to control sea lanes. It does probably want all of Singapore and Brunei, however. They’re small; take two!
Same goes for the Philippines. All it needs do is split off Muslim Mindanao. Plus maybe northern Luzon. And Subic Bay, to go with Cam Ranh Bay, Vietnam.
And of course it wants as many women as it can capture in those places, as wives for its 55 million excess males, thanks to the former idiotic policy of the Communist regime.
Of course, with all its thousands of long-haul jet liners, China doesn’t really need maritime stepping stones to Oz. It could also probably rent paratrooper transports from Russia.
The best time for China to invade would be while the US is tied down fighting North Korea. Liberating the North would require virtually the whole active Army and Marine Corps, plus half the Navy and Air Force. As well of course the RoK armed forces.
Even the Marine battalion in Darwin, NT, Australia would probably have to return to Okinawa to participate in an amphibious landing on the east or west coast of the DPRK.
China has purchased a number of container ship docks in Australia, and elsewhere.
Yup. And per capita Oz has more people of Chinese ancestry than any country outside Asia. Many of course are patriotic, anti-Communist or apolitical, but others are pro-regime.
Oz is vulnerable to invasion, for, among other reasons, its highly concentrated population, with limited sources of water, indefensible coastline, tiny military and disarmed population. All seven of its international airports could be seized overnight.
The US 7th Fleet would have something to say about that.
The Imperial Japanese Navy found that out in 1942-1945.
The US Pacific Fleets could not stop China from occupying Australia if it wanted to, especially if the 7th Fleet were busy in Korean waters at the same time.
We could shoot down a lot airliners if we had DDGs and CGs in the Coral and Arafura Seas, but we normally don’t.
Nor is the US obligated to defend Oz. Our alliance is not like NATO. Now, if Australia permitted US nuclear weapons and powered vessels to visit it, we might be a little more inclined to sacrifice American lives to defend the freedom which Australians seem unwilling to do.
Many Australians aren’t even OK with the Marine battalion in Darwin, but the government knows how vulnerable the island continent is without US backing. By “vulnerable” I mean, that all China needs to take it over is kerosene and diesel fuel.
If Darwin is faced with a Chinese amphibious landing group with 50,000 screaming PLA soldiers or 4 US Navy attack submarines that could sink the whole damn Chinese Navy in about 30 minutes, my money is on the attack subs. And the ChiComms know that too.
The **only** problem for Darwiners would be how big and plentiful the salt water crocs would get feeding on the bounty of thousands of Chinese navy and army bodies washing ashore.
There would be no amphibious landing at Darwin. At least not at the start. The salties will have to make do on tourists and TV personalities.
The initial invasion would come by air. Agents in place would seize all seven international airports, at a minimum. Or paratroops or air landed commandos posing as commercial passengers would do so.
All long-range air defenses would promptly be suppressed. Oz has no high altitude land-based SAMs; only 100 fighters and ECM a/c in five squadrons, based in NT, Queensland and NSW. As soon as these were destroyed, 3000 airliners would fly in at least 300,000 soldiers per sortie. Military airlift would bring in heavy weapons, armored vehicles, ordnance and supplies.
The RAN currently has six Collins class D/E subs, based in Western Australia, near Perth. I can’t say how many are typically at sea at any one time, but a fraction and in any case they’re far from Darwin.
The US Marine battalion in Darwin is a trip-wire, but no guarantee that America would save Oz, or even be able to do so if it wanted to try.
Oz would stand no chance at all on its own. The entire active and reserve ADF, all arms and branches of service, numbers less than 80,000. Its three Army brigades are in Queensland and the NT. Resistance would require an armed citizenry, of which Australia has gotten rid.
The 7th Fleet has Oz’s back. Pay back for 100 years of supporting the US. A solemn Promise from a colonist. Really.
Chicomms would have to get through a shit load of fast attack subs and Tomahawks and torps, Aegis destroyers + SM2+3+6 sams, and Patriot PAC2&3 missiles. Won’t happen.
Lotta dead chicoms in the seas would be the result.
Got that backwards. Oz owes the US, not the other way around. Oz only instituted a draft in WWII because American conscripts were dying in defense of Oz.
Also not 100 years. More like 77. And in the Great War, 1917-18, we bailed out the British Empire, not the other way around.
Air invasion by China means subs don’t matter. Nor would the USN be in the Oz AO in any numbers. Nor would a nationalist US president feel any need to save anti-American Oz ingrates.
There are no Patriot missiles in Oz. Any USN DDGs or CGs which fired on Chinese aircraft would be in grave danger from anti-ship ballistic missiles and subs previously sneaked into the Arafura and Coral Seas.
Are you willing to die for Oz, which isn’t willing to defend itself? Neither of us while serving was under treaty obligation to do so.
You are not getting it. Auz will be defended by US military if the Chicoms come to take it. It will be fun for US. US Marine are nuts for Aussies.
It is What the US does. Even Roosevelt had to come to GBR defense with fuel and supplies in 1940, and he was Democrat-socialist. If there had had been a Republican President in 1940, GBR would not have had to face Germany alone in 1940-41.
Really. Not even a question.
Maybe if Wilkie. Not if Taft. GOP in 1940 was isolationist. Many of German descent in the Midwest and West wept when the Brits got away at Dunkirk. Even Scandinavians like Lindbergh were America Firsters, wanting nothing to do with yet another European tribal war. Like Trump, they were nationalists, not internationalists.
What you’re not getting is that, even if the US wanted to save Oz yet again, which is by no means certain, we couldn’t.
To have a chance, we’d have to deploy the entire Pacific fleet between China and Australia, which it never is and never will be. We presently have no effective counter to Chinese antiship ballistic missiles, although we’re working on the problem.
By the time we could get the maximum of six carrier battle groups or strike forces in place, Oz would already long have been occupied by a million or more Chinese troops.
Oz civilians can’t live without water any more than any other 24 million mostly urban people on the planet.
Theo get a grip. The Chinese are simply buying Toronto and Vancouver and we Canadians are selling it to them. You are too much of a worrier. This is what the neomarxists want of its citizens.
Gary,
It’s a legitimate worry. Communist China has planned on taking over Australia since 1949.
Oz’ national security agencies at least awakened to Chinese subversion sooner than Canada did, and is trying to alert the world. Canada has taken note. The people forced Trudeau to nix the construction deal.
Please overlook the anti-Trump bits:
https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2018/august/1533045600/john-garnaut/australia-s-china-reset
“Resistance would require an armed citizenry, of which Australia has gotten rid.”
Armed citizenry serve as a deterrent to foreign invasion. It’s a national security issue.
Pardon, but who would want Darwin?
Maybe, as a stepping stone to the comparative paradise of Bundanyabba.
Just passing through en route to the areas with more people than crocs.
take your ideas of nukes n bugger off!
youve made us a bigger target already with pine fn gap!!
well I wouldnt hold my breath trusting that.
we need a decent self defence force ourselves not hanging off usa coattails
as for UK help?
roflmao!
Ozspeak,
I agree. But to defeat a Chinese invasion, Oz would need both a decent self-defense force and allies. The sine qua non however is a credible military threat of its own.
That would mean spending as much per capita on defense as does the US, plus building up a Swiss-style militia force of several million.
The US armed forces have about 1.3 million Active and 800K Guard and Reserve personnel. For Oz, that would translate into a strength of over 150K, maybe more, since the American military has other expenditures which Oz wouldn’t. That’s about twice Oz’ current active and reserve armed forces. Equipment would have to double as well. Plus arms for the militia. Dunno how many Enfields, L1A1s and Bren guns might still be in storage.
“plus building up a Swiss-style militia force of several million.”
That sounds like a winner!
The Chinese might hesitate to invade if they thought they were going to have to wade through millions of armed Australians to reach their goal.
Btw, we want to thank the Australians for all the help they gave us during the Vietnam war. They sent troops to Vietnam and welcomed American troops to their shores for rest and recreation.
Theo, The ROK could handle the DPRK by itself if it had to. Unfortunately, any resumption of hostilities on the Korean Peninsula would involve the PRC militarily, which means the US would certainly be involved. Russia would also get involved. The conflict would go nuclear rapidly.
The RoK could probably defeat a Nork invasion by itself, but would suffer far less death and destruction with the US involved.
However, counterattacking into the North by itself would be difficult, and not just because of Chinese and Russian intervention. However, with the US by the RoK’s side, China and Russia would be far less likely to intervene directly.
Nor do I think that it would be sure to go nuclear, unless the Norks nuked first. China’s economy would collapse without its US and allied markets. The regime would fall.
Any death and destruction the DPRK would inflict on the ROK would be over quickly, if it is just the DPRK. The US would have little impact in the reopening of hostilities, initially. Once the initial attack was over, the ROK would roll up the DPRK in fairly short order, assuming it stays conventional at this point. The problems would occur when China stepped in, and they would. Once China jumps in, things would become a gawd awful mess in a hurry. I doubt Russia would provide more than token assistance to the DPRK but, they would kick things off in Europe. At that point, things would go nuclear in a hurry. China and Russia have an ‘understanding’ militarily, allied is probably too strong a word.
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-04-19/china-russia-and-iran-are-forming-an-axis-of-autocracy
Which is why I said that the RoK would need the US. China’s leaders know that their economy, hence their rule and personal safety, would collapse without the US and allied markets.
China can’t afford to cross the Yalu in this century, as it could in the last, relying on America’s nuclear restraint. Nor could it even do so, if it wanted to. China can no longer infiltrate 300,000 soldiers by night. They would all disappear as soon as they got halfway across the river.
But, naturally I agree that Russia, Iran, China and their puppet states are indeed forming a de facto alliance.
Economic hardships from China’s point of view are are secondary or tertiary considerations. The regime would only collapse if they lost the military conflict.
As for their soldiers disappearing before they got halfway across the Yalu, that would only happen if the US initiated a nuclear exchange. If it stayed conventional, it would be an ugly fight.
Nope.
The regime knows it will fall if it can’t keep the economic house of cards from collapsing. In fact, they expect it to do so. Which is why their kids are buying up Hawaii and the West Coast of the US, plus NY, TX and FL.
We own the night. Yalu-crossing troops would disappear via totally conventional ordnance, both smart and dumb. We don’t need nukes to inflict massive casualties.
Their economy is and has been a house of cards. It’s foolish to trust any economic data the Chinese publish. It’s not a primary consideration for them except when it furthers their goals.
As for the Yalu, we wouldn’t be able to mass enough firepower, fast enough to prevent the Chinese from crossing and engaging. We could close off the river, eventually, but not before we had one hell of a conventional fight… assuming it stays conventional.
Yes, we could concentrate sufficient conventional firepower. China’s massing of an invasion force would be immediately detected. Every foot of the border would be under constant surveillance by recce assets from SF operators on the ground to drones to manned helicopters to low and high altitude fixed wing aircraft (many armed) to satellites.
Nor today, given the power of the RoK and US armed forces, would 300,000 PLA troops suffice. They would be sacrificed pointlessly.
The Chinese leadership knows that they have to keep their enslaved populace employed, or die. At the very least, lose their cushy positions. That’s why there has been so much malinvestment.
“…we wouldn’t be able to mass enough firepower, fast enough…”
I didn’t say we couldn’t do it. Anywho, any assets we would have monitoring the border wouldn’t have sufficient firepower to meaningfully impact the Chinese forces. Besides, the Chinese would likely be crossing as soon as the balloon went up.
China has stated that it will support the Norks only in defense, not offense. But I don’t think they’d even do that, if it meant the end of trade with the US. Especially since they wouldn’t win.
Many of our recce assets would be armed. Those which weren’t would designate targets for ordnance-launching platforms.
The Yalu River is 491 miles long. Its straight-line length of course is much less. Two hundred RoK F-16s, F-15s and F-4s, a thousand or more USAF, Navy and Marine F-15/16/18 “fighters”, B-52, B-1 and B-2 bombers and swarms of Army, Navy and Marine attack helicopters and drones would have every crossable mile covered. All the time.
Not to mention surface to surface rockets and missiles. Or the Japanese Self-Defense Air Force and Navy.
Any poor PLA troops trying to cross the Yalu would meet the same sad fate as the Russian mercs who dared to cross the Euphrates.
Unless it were planned in advance, China would not have troops on the border until days after the fighting started, by which time, the US would be able to get their own troops on that border.
The China of now, is not the China of 50 years ago.
The one child policy has completely hollowed out their military.
“Once China jumps in, things would become a gawd awful mess in a hurry. I doubt Russia would provide more than token assistance to the DPRK but, they would kick things off in Europe. At that point, things would go nuclear in a hurry.”
I doubt seriously that either China or Russia is willing to fall on their swords for North Korea and that’s what they would be doing if they got involved in a nuclear war with the United States.
Instead, they will stay short of triggering a nuclear war, even if the U.S. and North Korea go nuclear in the future over North Korea’s unwillingness to denuclearize.
Trump is going to take North Korea’s ability to threaten the U.S. with nukes away from them, no matter what it takes, and China and Russia better stay out of it. It’s better to lose a not-so-valuable ally like North Korea, than to lose everything you hold dear.
“The RoK could probably defeat a Nork invasion by itself, but would suffer far less death and destruction with the US involved.”
I served with Republic of Korea troops in South Vietnam. They are very tough troops. Well disciplined.
Thank you Theo and SMC. It is always reassuring to hear the opinions of experts in these matters.
It is a lot more difficult than you think.
Yes it is easy to grab the air terminals in a bums rush like the USSR did in Afghanistan.
Holding those airfields is another story.
Supply would be impossible without total control of the seaways.
You cannot ship by air the requirements for one hundred thousand troops.
Plus using C-130s we could supply Australia with anti air missiles and other light weapons.
The Australian Navy has ten DDG type ships. plus six subs and two helio jump jet CVs
If they get the new ones being built for them Bye, bye container ships. oh yeah they also have two helio, jump jet CVs
Last the Chinese have not launched a sea invasion,. You can practice, read accounts but there are certain things that can only be passed down by a military having done the task.
God help the Chinese if they try to land in New Guinea.
for the record, my Dad was with the USAAF at Milne bay Feb. 1942.
michael
The Chinese would have no trouble holding the airfields and being resupplied by air. Australia’s air defenses would disappear overnight.
Its air-landed troops would quickly extend their perimeters beyond MANPADS range.
Their food and water needs would be met off the land. Citizens of Oz, OTOH, would promptly be deprived of water and, once supplies ran out, of food. Not that that would matter, since city dwellers would be dying of thirst after three days.
RAN surface ships would soon be sunk. The subs wouldn’t matter if resupply and reinforcement were by air. But in any case, RAN subs couldn’t cover the whole vast coastline of an island continent.
Australia’s only hope would be the US, which would be at the end of a long logistics line and greatly overstretched. And possibly not willing to risk nuclear war to save Oz. India might pitch in. But only if Oz could somehow hold out for more than a week, with most of its populace without water.
The Australian army has exactly one tank battalion.
Theo, if the Chinese tried to send two thousand jet liners they would be picked up by air traffic controllers. That many unscheduled flights would cause an alert and a panic at the airports.
The Chinese would have to take the airfields with special forces type troops first. Then contact the follow on forces. There would be a lag of three hours or more before they got there. any reaction force would turn the airfield into shooting gallerys .
Crete is a good example of what can happen, and Australia is a much bigger island.
michael
Obviously, the airports would first be seized, presumably by “tourists and students” already in place, but also could be grabbed, a la Afghanistan 1979, by commandos arriving as “passengers” on regular flights, or by infiltrated marines or paratroopers.
Oz receives 1.2 million Chinese tourists per year.
There would be no lag, since the airliners would already be airborne. And, in any case, all your fighters would have been destroyed on the ground and you have no long-range SAMs.
But even if it did take three hours for the Chinese cavalry to arrive, there are no Oz army forces of sufficient size near any international airport but Brisbane’s and Darwin’s. Each of Oz’ three “brigades” has just a company of 14 tanks.
The army is however upgrading its battlefield SAMs.
Any US C-130s trying to help the Oz army would be shot down.
unless they take out the dams i dont see how you think wed be waterless?
and if they do that theyre thirsty too.
most homes worth their salt have rainwater tanks
You don’t need to take out the dams, although that would be easy. All you need to do is stop the flow of water and poison the existing supply.
Household rain tanks won’t last long. Desalinization plants would be destroyed.
The invaders would have plenty of water, since they’d control the dams.
Or just send Kim a postcard.
I dont think chinese “marry out” unless to the odd white woman for social/financials
from what I experienced most of those asian nations dislike all the others, phillipinos i knew sure hated vietnamese and thais
An ex airforce guy once told me Australian airforce buys American because the US planes Australia buys have bomb bays which are compatible with US aircraft delivered nuclear weapons.
So Australia’s defence plan apparently consists of hoping a Republican President authorises the release of nuclear weapons to Australian forces in time to stop the invasion.
Hope we never get to find out how that plays in practice.
Oz held onto its F-111s until 2010 for perhaps that reason. Its F/A-18s aren’t really more compatible with nukes than some other “attack-fighters” or “fighter-bombers”, but buying American does buy good will. And advanced capabilities. But F-18s, without refueling, can’t hit China from Oz, let alone return.
Oz could nuke its own airports if occupied by Chinese troops, but that wouldn’t really solve the problem. China could then nuke the cities in which the vast majority of Australians live. They’d hate to lose all those prospective “brides”, but would still have the resources of a continent.
Six million brides for six (or 12) million brothers!
You are seriously under-estimating how much the USA would come to Aussie’s defense. All in.
Chicomms would get their butts handed to them. Not even a question.
1) By the time the US could come to Oz’ defense, it would be all over.
2) It’s not at all certain that even if we did so, it would make a difference. China’s antiship technology gives the USN nightmares.
3) You might be overestimating the willingness of the US government and public to come to Oz’ defense, even if it were possible.
4) Again, the invasion would be by air and happen with US forces far afield.
As you may know, the RAN is acquiring exactly three Hobart class DDGs, a few of whose vertical launch cells might contain Standard missiles. That’s it for Oz’ high altitude SAMs.
You just don’t get it Theo.
The Chicomms would get their butt handed to them by the US 7th Fleet ships, subs and air power and USAF F-22 and F-35s. US Army Patriot batteries would be deployed where needed. Not even a question. Really.
If the Chicomms don’t understand that, then they don’t understand the USA.
The US 7th Fleet wouldn’t be anywhere near Oz when the invasion occurred.
But even if it were, 7th Fleet, based in Japan, has only one carrier, two cruisers and seven destroyers, plus four attack subs on Guam.
Sorry Eric, going to have to ask you to do a quick smell check on this one.
Let’s talk about platforms the RAAF have been operating in the last 40 years or so.
Fighters:
The Mirage. French.
Replaced by the Hornet. No bomb bay.
Supplemented by the Super Hornet. Again, no bomb bay.
All to be eventually replaced by the F-35. Now this does have an internal bay, but given that every man and his dog bought into the JSF programme the claim of ‘buy American’ is a tad flimsy. My understanding is that current F-35 are not currently nuclear capable although a future development will be.
Strike
The F-111C. Yeah, probably fits. American. Bomb bay. Nuclear capable, although truth be told I understand that any nuclear strike would have been done with bombs mounted under the wings.
F-111C replaced by Super Bugs and F-35. see above.
Patrol
Neptune – US. Bomb bay. As I understand it, capable of delivering nuclear depth charges.
Replaced by the P-3 Orion. Also as above.
Being replaced by the P-8. Yeah, more or less the same.
So we have had the ability to do nuclear ASW since the 60s… sorta… Not sure that this is a valid proof of the argument though.
Advanced Trainers
Hawks. Not American.
Transports
Now we are just being silly.
So, to be honest I think this claim is a tad ‘broad and sweeping’ to be taken too much as official (or even unofficial Australian Government policy). Now had someone told you that the Collins boats were upgraded to the heavy weight Mk48 torpedos so that they could also use US made nukes then you might be onto something, but the RAAF thing is a tad too tinfoil hat for my liking.
As you know, Hornets are nuke-capable, but from external hard-points, not bomb bay. As I said, any number of other fighter-bombers could also carry nukes on standard hard-points.
and we have what? 2 f lemon 35s?
that dont like rain or heat
that might kill pilots ejecting
that keep have patch after patch on ditzy systems
that we are going broke to buy
when we could have bought better options OS and got contracts to build ourselves thereby ensuring trained mechs n jobs
our military is a bloody shambles
Sad but true. Given the cost of F-35, the number of your fighters will decline.
Yet Oz at least spends relatively more on defense than does Japan. The Abe government has however lifted the one percent of GDP limitation.
Contracts to build?
As you suggesting there is no Australian Industry Content in the F-35 programme?
The chinese people are threatened more by their own government than they are by irrational fears of ‘climate change’ 50 years from now. And using this fear mongering as justification for the Chinese governments violations of international treaties, seizing South Asian seas atolls, and destroying them to make fortress military bases is the height of hypocrisy.
The South China Sea misunderstanding is a storm in a teacup, by 2070 the Belt and Road will have found its way into every nook and cranny. Food security is utmost in their minds.
The SCS is an integral part of the Belt and Road Initiative, aka the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-century Maritime Silk Road:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/cb/One-belt-one-road.svg
China in red, Members of the AIIB in orange, the six corridors in black.
Sure… the invasions of most of Europe (one country at a time) by the Germans and the invasions of many malaysian islands and the Phillipines by Japan were just ‘teacup storms’ also?? There were many who held similar views to yours back then. Such complacency emboldens the invaders.
This is how World Wars start, with one invasion that is not resisted, followed by another, and then another.
Yup.
Not much point in China’s colonizing Africa and building ports on the Indian Ocean, if it can’t count on controlling the sea lines of communication to Africa and SW Asia.
” we project based on an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model simulations …”
Woop, there it is!
Wow! How high will the stock market be? Who wins the World Series in 2070, and is Betty White still acting? OK, that last one is easy – of course she will be.
And Dick Clark still hosts the New Year’s Eve celebration in Times Square.
Funny to us now, but in 50 years, AI and Robotics could easily have a Betty White or Dick Clark stand-in for those jobs, provided there is any market for them. If so, you can bet their probate estates will be licensing them, along with the estates of Elvis Presley and Marilyn Monroe!
… and Fidel Castro will still be cuba’s … oh, wait … Raúl Castro will still be head of Cuba’s Communist Party.
Cher will still look the same.
proof of ET life?
I want to see how many of those crocs Betty managed to raise to adulthood by 2070 (Lake Placid)
Idle thought: pay for climate simulation study grants with simulated funds.
You heard it here first.
Cool! I saw a scifi movie like that once.
Pretty sure they did too.
“……., North China Plain is likely to experience deadly heatwaves ……..”
So, they don’t really know.
Over 50 years out they make this claim. As if the other wild claims about the earth being uninhabitable ten years ago was true.
But lets pretend that all of this is true. Given how wretched government is in doing those things that government is supposed to do (e.g. manage courts, roads, mail, water, sewage, fire and public safety) we can see that they all fail miserably at these functions – which entitles them to µManage everyone else’s day-to-day lives…
Moving to a cooler climate makes great sense. In 50 years, the infrastructure will be comprehensively wrecked while new technologies will have likely emerged Consider in the US where older cities have waste management systems designed with five gallon flush commodes, now with even less than three gallons to move the same (if not more) solid waste material and the failure to maintain systems, the deferred maintenance causes regular failures.
Dittos with roadways, power and communication. All these things will likely change dramatically in the next half century and fresh new metropolises will be much better to build and move to rather than trying to retrofit and modernize outdated and inflexible systems currently in place.
If it takes the unsubstantiated threat of “climate change” to trigger this migration, well… so what?
I hate cold…..thinking about moving to another island ~ 200 miles further south
Claim: In 2070..
Do they have some sort of rule that it’s always 50 years out?
I think geography ate them on this one…
South of the North China Plain is hundreds of thousands of acres of rice paddies and sugar cane fields…you work those in the height of summer…and nothing is hotter and wetter
…and heat waves usually come up from the south….so the south would be even hotter
they are used to it
I guess they could move to Mongolia, and let robots do the farming on the NCP.
If 27 years of Mao didn’t force 400 million Chinese to flee, I doubt 0.5°C of warming is going to have much effect. Estimates vary widely, but roughly 38-45 million died in the Great Chinese Famine, which was a direct result of Mao’s “Great Leap Forward”. Some estimates put total deaths due to malice and incompetence under Mao and succeeding Chinese communists at 77 million.
The problem was, whence to flee? And how?
North along the tropical shores of the Bering Sea? /sarc
Sarcasm noted.
But I was referring to the poor masses slaughtered and starved to death by Mao.
The BAU scenario is the quite fictional, extremely alarmist RCP 8.5 CO2 emissions scenario. RCP8.5 has been much discussed and rebutted here at WUWT and many other blogs over the years since it became to go-to scenario for CMIP5 and the IPCC AR5 alarmism. That people who call themselves scientists continue to use RCP8.5 as the basis for their follow-on studies indicates a clear decision on their part to use alarmist yet wholly unrealistic CO2 forcing scenarios to further their agenda, and probably to help in the getting their next funding grant submission above the payline, and scientific honesty is the casualty. So let’s call Suchul Kang & Elfatih A. B. Eltahir what they almost certainly are — Rent Seekers.
“wholly unrealistic” is right.
“Business as Usual” is actually the worst-case scenario, which predicts the temperatures will increase by 4.5C.
The most recent estimates of potential warming from CO2 is about 1.5C or less, and that amount of warming assumes that ALL the recent warming is caused by CO2. If not all the recent warming (since 1980) is caused by CO2, and instead Mother Nature is responsible for some or all of it, then even the 1.5C figure is too high.
Of course, you can’t get grant money without a scary alarmist climate scenario, which is why they use the “wholly unrealistic” 4.5C figure instead of the 1.5C figure.
Ridiculous claims, really. Just like all the rest of the ridiculous claims that have been made about CO2.
Makes you wonder who they think they are frightening by writing it English in a Western media outlet.
the children of course, they’re always thinking of the children.
First they’ll get the western kiddies to think ‘poor Chinese’, then they’ll educate them about the Glorious past of the Visionary Chairman Mao, then when their long awaited overlords arrive, the Left will welcome them with open arms chanting some slogan about how long they’ve waited for this moment.
(The Chinese bewildered by all these wide eyed nut bags will ask their names ‘Preppy McFiddlebooks’ will answer the idiot-grin and they’ll be told ‘sorry that’s too complicated, you will be #778654 from now on, do you have any special skills?.. uh, I see not’ noting the obviously handmade macrame tea cozy on Preppy’s head, ‘please move to the rear carriage, we’re taking you on a holiday to Magical Rainbow Fairy Dust Unicorn Farm, enjoy your pilgrimage’ and McFiddlebooks will clap gleefully, grateful to her Learned Teachers who had informed them how aiding the Chinese to take the country had been right all along. With these communist Chinese here to overthrow the fowl scourge of capitalism, she will envisage her life ahead under fair and just guidance as she steps into the cattle car)
*Hours to live* Very dramatic but totally unrealistic.
Moving to Vancouver BC.
And Seattle and California.
The leadership sees the writing on the wall. Or is just making sure they have some place to run when the peasants rise up, armed with rice flails.
hope you are rich. Living costs in Vancouver are astronomical.
In part driven up by Chinese property buying.
“…..climate is a coupled non-linear chaotic system and future predictions about climate are not possible.”( h/t TAR 2001).
Santer changed all that.
Hmmm…more unverifiable predictions 50+ years into the future? Typical CAGW alarmist tactic.
China needs to do more to reduce their population.
China needs do nothing to reduce its population. The regime’s idiotic previous anti-population policy has already ruined the country’s demography.
That its population will decline is baked in the cake, unless 55 million women can be found somewhere for its bachelors. Check out its present and future demographic structure, more like a pagoda than a pyramid:
http://static1.businessinsider.com/image/56fa74a891058422008b93bb-1188-829/screen%20shot%202016-03-29%20at%208.25.39%20am.png
“we project based on an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model simulations”
Dont forget the resolution is not smaller than 1.5km. That is an awful long way from getting the resolution down to a raindrop size ; which you need to do to model the effects of a cloud accurately. Of course pixel size and the limitations of computing power will make that impossible. Therefore climate can never be modelled accurately for even a week ahead, never mind a year, never mind 52 years . Climate science is such a joke.
How does irrigation warm the environment? This makes zero sense to me.
Crops transpire and cool the surface, any evaporation cools the surface and prevents temperatures from rising by shunting the heat into the latent heat of vaporization after which convection carries it up into clouds that radiate the heat away to space.
I need one of our resident alarmists to splain this to me.
Evapotranspiration from water cycle gives 486000 km^3/year. WIKI gives 503000 and Babkin in a Russian study gave 577000 but we will use the lowest figure.
1 km^3 = 10^12 kg
Latent Heat of vapourization of water at 20C = 2,450,000 Joules/kg
Number of seconds in a year = 3.1536 x 10^7
1 watt = 1 Joule /second
Surface area of earth = 5.1x 10^11 m^2
NASA graph gives evapotranspiration = 86.4W/m^2 Check their Earth’s energy budget graph on their website
https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2641/keeping-an-eye-on-earths-energy-budget/
The task is to convert the latent heat that is represented inside the water molecule from the water cycle upon evaporation to a W/m^2 equivalent of NASA’s figure of 86.4 W/m^2. I want to see if NASA’s figure has any basis in reality.
Solution : Total evapotranspiration = 486000 km^3/year * 10^12kg = 4.86 x 10^17 kg/year
Total number of Joules = 2,450,000 Joules/kg * 4.86 x 10^17 kg/year
= 1.1907 x 10 ^24 Joules/year
Number of Joules/second = 1.1907 x 10 ^24 Joules/year divided by 3.1536 x 10^7 sec/year
= 3.775684932 x 10^16 Joules /sec
= 3.775684932 x 10^16 Watts
W/m^2 from surface = (3.775684932 x 10^16 Watts) divided by 5.1x 10^11 m^2
= 7.403303788 x10^4 W/m^2
~ 74,033
divide by 4 because the earth is a sphere and is diurnal = ~18,508 W/m^2
which is 214.2 times the NASA figure. Where did I go wrong?
In 2007, LLNL found that irrigation had a local cooling effect.
https://www.livescience.com/1790-irrigation-counteracts-global-warming.html
Alan,
Looks like a conversion error with the surface area of the earth.
5.1 x 10^8 km^2 = 5.1 x 10^14 m^2, not 5.1 x 10^11 m^2
Your number is therefore 10^3 too large
Also, should you divide by 4? I think that NASA is averaging over the entire (lit and dark) surface?
Not dividing by 4, you would get 74.0 W/m^2 compared to their 86.4 W/m^2
Of course you are right. I made an elementary mistake.
Well, I guess that the moral of the story is that it’s not a small world after all!
Cheers 🙂
The “Business As Usual” scenario, BAU, is better called the “science fiction scenario”.
This bit of fear mongering reactionary climate hype is based in BAU.
Once again climate fear hypesters offer fictional scenarios to frighten people.
Good thing they have an open land route to Arctic! Start moving north NOW, it is totally empty and Putin will happily lease them all the hovels they need! Capitalism in action!!!!!!!!!!!
China claims Mongolia and much of eastern Siberia.
Yes, they do.
Before you know it, China will claim ownership of the entire world.
That’s the plan.
“China claims Mongolia and much of eastern Siberia.”
=========
Can you reference that claim, “Theo”?
Did you get tired of being Felix/Chimp/Gabro?
Why do change names every few months?
If that’s supposed to be some kind of camouflage, it doesn’t work. 🙂
Of course I can. Anyone who has ever studied Asian history knows that:
You found an old map showing different boundaries at different times – it’s a historical map, not a contemporary claim by China
You seem to be a compulsive liar with a military fetish.
And you keep breaching site policy with your frequent name changes.
Or is that a special military privilege you have?
Paranoid much?
What lie have I told? You, OTOH spew whole packs of lies, due to your anti-Israel, anti-American, anti-Western, anti-Christian fetishes.
China claims all the land occupied by the Ming and Qing Dynasties. Which you’d know had you ever studied Asian history.
China doesn’t recognize the 1860 Treaty of Peking, which assigned “Outer Manchuria” to Russia, as it was coerced. It also doesn’t accept Outer Mongolia as legitimate.
You might be too young to recall the 1969 Sino-Soviet border clashes in the Amur-Ussuri region.
“China claims Mongolia and much of eastern Siberia.”
===============
That appears to be a lie, Theo/Gabro/Felix/Chimp.
I asked you to reference the claim, you reply with an old map showing different Chinese borders over the course of hundreds of years!
BUT YOU WON”T SHOW ME ANY CURRENT CHINESE POLICY STATEMENTS.
quote:
==============
“In 1949, the Communists won the Chinese Civil War and re-recognized Mongolia’s independent status.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Mongolia_relations
==============
When did that policy of recognition change? Show references – your ipse dixit faith-based assertions don’t count as EVIDENCE. Your map of historical boundaries does not count as evidence of CURRENT POLICY.
Geez, doesn’t anyone study history at all any more. I am re-reading the history of China. Goes back a long way; the written history goes back an amazingly long way. The Central Plains of China have always been the center of Chinese civilization AND also subject to dramatic changes in climate according to their written history. Floods, droughts (were rivers dried up,) extreme cold, heat waves, etc, etc are all recorded.
The Chinese are NOT interested in the South China Sea because of pending climate doom and gloom. It has to do with power and control. They want to control shipping lanes and have access to mineral and petroleum resources. China outside its close surrounding areas have rarely been hegemonic. That appears to have changed. They have stated that the 20th Century was the American Century, the 21st Century will be China’s.
Agree, except that when China is strong and united, it has always been expansionist. This fact has been overlooked because of recent history. despite China’s oppression of Uighurs, Tibetans and other ethnic and religious minorities. And its military action in Korea, Tibet and Vietnam (both for and against the Communist regime there).
Its expansion has usually been checked by running into other expansionist, militarist regimes, as at the Battle of the Talas River in 751, between the forces of the Tang Dynasty and the Abbasid Caliphate and its Tibetan ally.
The Ming Dynasty, after overthrowing the Mongol Yuan, was constantly at war near and far. It’s famous for its commercial fleet, which sailed to Africa. But it also tried to maintain a million man army and had the largest naval dockyards in the world.
“They have stated that the 20th Century was the American Century, the 21st Century will be China’s.” Anyone that doesn’t see/believe this is naive. The question is will China allow Western Cultures to exist as Capitalists and how much of the world will they allow them to control.
Don’t be so pessimistic.
The Chinese are not ten feet tall.
No, but they are numerous, nationalistic and determined. The only way to stop them is a global alliance against China, to include NATO, India and the East Asian states threatened by Han expansionism.
China has the advantage of being an authoritarian state whose leader can focus national efforts. If they have a smart leader, they can make much progress. And they have smart leaders, while those leaders they deal with from other nations are dumb as rocks. Except for Trump.
China doesn’t like the concept of assimilation. They don’t want to merge their society with others. Instead, they want their society and culture to be dominant, so I think China is going to have a lot of trouble in the future getting along with other nations. Those nations are suspicious of China’s motives and this will only grow. They will, however, take China’s money. At least for a while. Until they see the price.
“why can’t people affected by the heatwave just turn on their air conditioners?”
Or if that didn’t suit, let them eat cake.
Oh please, Ryan. First explain how evapotranspiration will raise temperatures or why we shouldn’t dismiss the entire paper as being based purely on junk models that predict such an outcome.
Is this the same theory that because air can hold more water vapor at higher temperature, that it must hold more? That theory that predicts the elusive tropospheric hot spot?
The paper talks about the “integrated measure of temperature and humidity”; otherwise known as the heat index. A week ago here it was in the 90’s but bearable due to lower humidity. This past Saturday it was stifling at 86 because the humidity was through the roof. Warm and humid can be more stressful for humans than hot and dry. This is the point being made, not that the dry-bulb temperature will actually increase. How good the model is…meh.
This is so dumb since I experienced first hand what irrigation does to large parks I worked in. When the ground is dry on the surface it is heating up, but after I irrigate it, it is much cooler even when it is hot air temperature in the region.
I used to manually run irrigation in sensitive areas on hot days to cool it down, which makes a big difference to the grass as they will wilt in the excessive heat.
Since I had to work all day in the summer heat walking and digging a lot, I used to soak my shirt then wring out the excess water, then put it back on me, my it is cold for a while because water is soaking up the heat to point that I don’t even feel the 100 degree heat at all, which can last for 30 minutes.
Nǐ huì shuō zhōngwén ma?
Yes and why do you ask in pinyin?
Oh Eric, there you go again, spoiling the nice scary story of the alarmists once more. Will you ever leave them alone, to frighten us into writing the cheques they desperately want so they can afford their dream holiday house on a tropical island?
China and India cover major share of the world population. Let us see some features:
1. The geographical area of China and India respectively are 9,596, 960 km2 and 3,287, 263 km2
2. Area under agriculture of China and India respectively are 54.7% and 60.5%
3. Area under irrigation in 2012 of China and India respectively are 690,070 km2 and 667,000 km2
4. The population changed from 1950 to 2014 of China and India respectively are 543 million to 1.39 billion and 376 million to 1.27 billion
5. Urban population in 2017 of China and India respectively are 57.9% and 33.5%
In China more people are under urban heat island influence compared to India while both countries with same irrigation. Then how the humidity theory works.
Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy
OMG here we go again with the 16 October photo of the city blanketed with smoke from the annual field stover burning event. That’s CO2-neutral biomass burning there, buddy.
Fortunately for them the modern tractors are build with air con these days.
The article doesn’t mention two options for farmers: drip irrigation at scale as per Israel, and the fact that with rising CO2 the crops need less water so even if it was sprayed, it would be reduced.
As for keeping cool in their homes, the farmers can turn on their air con units powered by hundreds of new coal fired power stations. They will also run their farms with electric tractors obviating the need for diesel and the attendant maintenance.
Their interest in the South China Sea has nothing to do with farmland. Their interest in Southern Africa does. With the rising productivity of higher CO2 they will need lass and less farmland as time goes by.
“My question – if this nightmare ever actually occurs (unlikely – they used RCP8.5 for their projection), why can’t people affected by the heatwave just turn on their air conditioners?”
1. Even in Beijing not every building has Air Con. And when they do the additional load can result
in losing power to the whole building. Like friday. sucked.
2. READ THE ARTICLE
“So, in the 2070s, the day is coming where those farmworkers will die from heat stroke within just six hours — whether they’re resting in the shade or not. Conditions within the cities will be terrible — but survivable through airconditioning.
But food supplies will reach crisis point. And living conditions would be untenable.
Some 400 million people could be forced to flee for cooler climates.”
Why cant farmers turn on AC?
Guess you havent been to a farm in china now have you?
The article explains that with Air con the CITIES will be survivable. But in the countryside
6 hours outside will kill you.
Now will it happen? dunno. When I worked in defense we prepared for a lot of scary scenarios that
never happened.
That’s the beauty of cheap energy Mosher – gives you options.
Leaving aside the question of whether there will be any manual labour in 2070, especially in advanced countries like China, if farms become too hot cheap energy makes it a trivial expense to install and maintain air conditioned cool down booths in strategic locations on the farms, bit like the booths dotted around Singapore Zoo. That way if people overheat they go to a cool room and recover.
Personally I think the climate scenario is ridiculous, and China is one of the most tech savvy places on the planet, so all onerous jobs will be automated way before the alleged crisis date. But even if I’m wrong, cheap energy still provides viable options, even with today’s technology.
Only mad dogs and Englishmen stay out in the mid day sun.
Mr Steve Masher wrote:
“When I worked in defense we prepared for a lot of scary scenarios that
never happened.”
My comment:
No wonder you love the minutia of climate change,
where 100% of the “scenarios” are scary bad news,
but NOTHING BAD ever happens !
“When I worked in defense we prepared for a lot of scary scenarios that
never happened.”
And to think, warmists are still proclaiming that the fact that the military has prepared a scenario for global warming is proof that the military brass is convinced that global warming is going to be bad.
400 million poor do not have air conditioning.
Let them soak in tubs!
Or cool off in the irrigation sprinklers or canals.
All the more reason to ensure their access to cheap energy, education and trade opportunities, so they can stop being poor.
China covers a very large area and has a wide variety of climate zones. If some become uninhabitable others may become more habitable. The warmists assume that warming always makes things worse.
RCP8.5 isn’t happening, so why bother.
The iPhone was introduced in the United States on June 29, 2007; about 11 years ago.
What will China be like in 52+ years?
I need another glass of wine.
the poor who live in dog cages or the coffin rentals will die.
however theres all those mega cities in the desert areas with NO ONE living in them
id say a move there would be easiest?
as for china seas well not many going to fit or even get ONto those mil bases are they?
original authors a bloody idiot!
North China Plain threatened by deadly heatwaves due to climate change and irrigation
Suchul Kang & Elfatih A. B. Eltahir
Nature Communications volume 9, Article number: 2894 (2018)
North China Plain is the heartland of modern China. This fertile plain has experienced vast expansion of irrigated agriculture which cools surface temperature and moistens surface air, but boosts integrated measures of temperature and humidity, and hence enhances intensity of heatwaves. Here, we project based on an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model simulations that climate change would add significantly to the anthropogenic effects of irrigation, increasing the risk from heatwaves in this region. Under the business-as-usual scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, North China Plain is likely to experience deadly heatwaves with wet-bulb temperature exceeding the threshold defining what Chinese farmers may tolerate while working outdoors. China is currently the largest contributor to the emissions of greenhouse gases, with potentially serious implications to its own population: continuation of the current pattern of global emissions may limit habitability in the most populous region, of the most populous country on Earth.
______________________________________________
Well maybe this researchers aren’t too familiar with, acquainted with real world chinese farmers and their famous
Chinese farmers cone straw hats
https://www.google.at/search?q=Chinese+farmer+cone+straw+hats&oq=Chinese+farmer+cone+straw+hats&aqs=chrome.
The people of Russia, Canada, Alaska and the UK will have a bigger problem when their countries disappear under the next ice cap, and most of Northern Europe is Tundra, coming soon in climate change time scales, as surely as our orbit around the sun varies on 100Ka cycles that drive the ice age two state system change. As with the various, larger in both directions, changes that apply regionally, no one alive will notice significant long term change, of course, they may have to adapt a little, using technology if they have it.
The actual global average applies no where and changes VERY slowly. Even the several degrees of an Interglacial event takes c.7Ka. 1 degree every Thousand years, on thousand years is long enough to rebuild a major city 5 times or more. I imagine cities will move up the hill like volcanic hot spot Islands as the oceans rise the 100metres in that time. A terrifying 14mm pa. We can probably handle that, especially as planning for it is rather easy, given the last 9 events. I would do an Athens and put the city above max sea level and have a movable port infrastructure. As with Durban/Jo’burg, Nairobi/Mombassa, Athens/Piraeus, but for different reasons .
Climate change really doesn’t happen in human lifetimes, and isn’t happening as models predicted, it’s happening pretty much as it has for 1 Million years. Why doesn’t someone just point that out? It isn’t made measureably worse by puny people effects as the models claim, measured on what is naturally happening in the upper atmosphere and on the ground..
The ONLY way any taxes justified by climate change can be effective is if they are spent protecting vulnerable areas and the poor people in them who cannot defend themselves., also to deter building in vulnerable areas. Obs.
The science denial of renewable energy as an adequate and reliable source of base load grid supply that also reduces CO2 without the 100% fossil backup needs exposing as well, as that is easy to prove as a simple legalised fraud in costed engineering fact, no consensus required when hard proof is available.
“… it’s happening pretty much as it has for 1 Million years. Why doesn’t someone just point that out?”
Pointing it out has no effect on closed minds. Even 30 years of cooling would not open them.
“The world is ending. It’s all our fault.”
“I’m right.”
“You’re deplorable.”
“So there.”
Instead of talking to the ear-less hand, listen to something twice as interesting coming out of the 50,000 documents released by Trump in November.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ihnqSyUF8pY
The influx of Chinese is already having a dramatically positive effect on home prices here in Canada. The value of my home rose 60,000 dollars in the past year alone. What’s not to like about that? Bring on the heat !!
By 2070 China will be so toxic that people will be held for 72 hours and fed diuretics when they try to leave the country and will be shot on sight if they approach the checkpoints carrying or wearing anything.
I did a few thousand miles of compass and foot traverse geological mapping without an assistant in the Sahel of northern Nigeria in the middle 1960s with temperatures exceeding 45C (113F) and by the end of the day a good weight of rock samples in my rucksack. Admitedly humiditiy was low, but I sparingly sipped from a modest canteen and had to wait until the end of the day to adequately rehydrate. It was like furnace heat but you just accepted it and got acclimatized.
In my case, having been a newspaperboy on the prairies carrying a big bag of papers in July heat of 105F and, as an adult, making hay in eastern Ontario that you chose the hot days for, I had some practice (chronic hayfever bedamned!). Nowadays, they scare everybody with BS “feels like” temperatures. We’ve had some days lately in E Ontario of 32-33C (~90F) and they say” feeks like” 40. Fearful citizens won’t go to the corner store without a bottle of water to sip from. On the prairies in winter we used to call the windchill factor wimpchill factor.
I recall forking haybales onto the wagon in blistering heat, and it was worse up in the loft packing them tight and *arrgh* spreading salt around by hand from a bucket. We were so hot we had to be careful drinking the iced Koolaid – not too much at once so as not to have a heart attack. People really died from doing that so we took it advice seriously.
Hot? I was at the CNE in Toronto once and the Shell Tower temperature sign showed 106 F. They experience nothing like that now. I have experience 46 C and 50 (once) in the southern Lowveld of Swaziland. Some plants grow like crazy in that environment.
This business about the Beijing flatlands (Hebei and Shandong) and irrigation is silly. Plain silly. That is a flat, hot, humid mountain-encircled (two sides) region that has always been like that. It is much “worse” in Moçambique and Tanzania so the authors can’t be talking about human limits. A few weeks ago I was in Beijing and it was 38-39 every day, humid but clear most of the time. If it gets “hotter” it will create more thermals and the ocean breeze will draw in. The thunderstorm hypothesis works on land too.
The food-fear is false. It is warms more, the growing season will be extended and they will grow two crops a year instead of one, like Rwanda.
“not the problem the study authors make it out to be”
Why do I get the feeling that the “study” authors are a bunch of academics who have never pushed a lawn mower in their lives?
When you are a leftist,
you can make any scary claim
about any alleged
coming climate-related disaster
— fellow leftists will take you seriously,
and never question any so-called “study”.
There seems to be a contest for which leftist
can write the scariest climate fairy tale.
I read only the New York Post
summary of the “study”,
and noticed not one word about the serious
environmental problems in China, that
so-called US environmentalists ignore =
real pollution of the air, water and soil.
In the bizarro world of leftists,
real pollution does not matter,
but carbon dioxide, the staff of life,
and airborne plant food,
is mistakenly believed to be “pollution”.
My free climate change blog:
http://www.elOnionBloggle.Blogspot.com
I think they will be forced to move south to warmer climes by 2070.
“In 2070 400 Million Chinese will be Forced to Flee to Colder Climates”
Later in 2070, 400 Million Chinese will be forced to flee to warmer climates as winter comes again.
That’s a lot of snowbirds, but think of the tourism industry!
So they need to migrate toward the equator where the South China Sea is? and militarize the islands as they go? AU logic escapes me. I thought the Chinese communists were doing the territorial grab with sea power for the fossil fuel potential there and the fishing areas to the exclusion of other peoples in the region.
I think Jamie Seidel has passed the ‘dim watt bulb’ limit.