CREDIT
Patrick Mansell, Penn State
Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Alarmism in action.
Extreme global weather is ‘the face of climate change’ says leading scientist
Exclusive: Prof Michael Mann declares the impacts of global warming are now ‘playing out in real-time’
The extreme heatwaves and wildfires wreaking havoc around the globe are “the face of climate change”, one of the world’s leading climate scientists has declared, with the impacts of global warming now “playing out in real time”.
…
Extreme weather has struck across Europe, from the Arctic Circle to Greece, and across the world, from North America to Japan. “This is the face of climate change,” said Prof Michael Mann, at Penn State University, and one the world’s most eminent climate scientists. “We literally would not have seen these extremes in the absence of climate change.”
“The impacts of climate change are no longer subtle,” he told the Guardian. “We are seeing them play out in real time and what is happening this summer is a perfect example of that.”
“We are seeing our predictions come true,” he said. “As a scientist that is reassuring, but as a citizen of planet Earth, it is very distressing to see that as it means we have not taken the necessary action.”
…
Where I live months of high humidity weather in the 90s or above is what we call “Summer”. But I understand such conditions are distressing for people who are not used to them.
Mann’s comments are not helpful. In his apparent eagerness to take advantage of the heatwave to promote his climate message, he’s gone too far. How can you scientifically state we “would not have seen these extremes in the absence of climate change?” on the basis of a claim that the probability of such events has doubled? A doubling of probability still leaves a substantial possibility that such events could occur naturally, without human help.
This is all over the UK media:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-44980363
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5999161/Climate-change-increased-odds-northern-European-heatwave.html
“World Weather Attribution network researchers compared the currently high temperatures with historical records at seven weather stations in northern Europe”
“The research is still in its formative stage, as a full-scale study will take many months to complete. As a preliminary study, it will still need to be ratified and validated with further modelling using high-powered computers”
But don’t let that get in the way of a good scare story!
Or, possibly, these “extreme” events have nothing to do with anything we can change.
http://notrickszone.com/2018/07/28/another-climate-scientist-finds-a-robust-solar-signal-on-climate-with-solar-enso-phase-locking/
Any claim that “Climate Science” is “Settled Science” is absurd. It is merely a vague concept.
A classic example of pseudoscience. He’s now resorting to the unproveable. Perhaps he also supports the idea that when on a train you can prevent wild animals from attacking the train by tearing up bits of paper and throwing them out of the window. It works every time.
Michael Mann is literally, an idiot.
I don’t think that he is truly an idiot. I would say that he is gullible, and capable of fooling himself. He lacks the essential characteristics of a scientist, namely being skeptical, and demanding strong proof. He is not the classical objective, disinterested observer. He is quick to support anything that appears to be in line with his personal strong bias. and he is willing to use sophistry to promote his personal view of reality, and to sue those who dare point out his mistakes. That is not the behavior of a scientist, in my view. It is the behavior of a desperate ideologue.
“Scientists say the global warming has contributed to the scorching temperatures that have baked the UK and northern Europe for weeks.”
For Central England, June 2018 was the same as June 1804 but cooler than June 1818 in the Dalton Minimum, cooler than June 1896 in the Gleissberg Minimum, and much cooler than June 1676 in the Maunder Minimum. How interesting, increased early summer high pressure blocking over England, close to sunspot cycle maxima during centennial solar minima.
https://climexp.knmi.nl/data/tcet.dat
‘We literally would not have seen climate change in the absence of these extremes’
Hey, Mike is looking like he lost some of his excess pounds!
Now if he,m would only pick up some integrity, sense of balance, and a conscience.
Overweight but not weighty. 🙁
According to Mike:
The extreme heatwaves and wildfires wreaking havoc around the globe are “the face of climate change”, one of the world’s leading climate scientists has declared, with the impacts of global warming now “playing out in real time”.
Based on highly credible historical records, there is nothing unusual happening in Earth’s weather and climate at this time. There is certainly no dangerous man-made global warming, Earth may even be heading into a moderate cooling phase.
Mike – the actual “extreme” happening now in climatology is your “extreme bullsh!t”. Stop running around telling lies to gullible imbeciles and scaring children with your alarmist falsehoods.
The population of planet Earth has suffered greatly due to extremist bullsh!t – in the 20th Century over 200 million people were killed due to extreme leftist bullsh!t. That just includes the victims of Stalin, Hitler and Mao, not counting all the lesser murderers across Latin America, Africa and SE Asia.
In the 21st Century, the great killers have been the phony greens with their false climate crises and their destructive green energy technologies.
My expertise is energy. Mike, you probably think that green energy is environmental and sustainable. Almost NO green energy technologies are even remotely economic, let alone sustainable – they are typically anti-environmental and provide little useful (dispatchable) energy. Intermittent grid-connected (wind and solar) power generation destabilizes the grid and drives up energy costs, increasing Winter Deaths that especially target the elderly and the poor. Typically, the environmental downsides of these intermittent technologies greatly exceed their benefits.
Biofuels are another environmental disaster. Corn ethanol is also a poor and destructive idea, as are most food-to-fuel schemes, which have contributed to excessive drawdown of the Ogalalla Aquifer in the USA and widespread rain-forest clear-cutting in the tropics. In Brazil the rainforest has been clear-cut to grow sugar cane for fuel ethanol, and in SE Asia the rainforest has been clear-cut to grow palm oil. This clear-cutting cannot be undone and is a global-scale tragedy.
Earth is significantly colder-than-optimum for humanity and the environment. Expert meteorologist Joe d’Aleo and I wrote this conclusion in our 2015 paper, referenced below. Twenty times more people die from cold than die from heat – about 2 million Excess Winter Deaths every year worldwide – an average of about one hundred thousand in the USA, equivalent to two 9-11’s per week for 17 weeks every year! In Canada, Excess Winter mortality totals about 5000 to 10,000 per year.
Even more startling is the preliminary estimate of Excess Winter Deaths in the United Kingdom – about 48,000 this past winter! The UK suffered about HALF the average annual Excess Winter Deaths of the USA, but the UK has only ONE-FIFTH the USA’s population. High energy prices, or “Heat or Eat” as it is termed in the UK, is becoming a significant cause of premature deaths of the elderly and the poor. Anti-fracking groups in the UK have cost that country dearly in billions of lost pounds-sterling and hundreds of thousands of needlessly-shortened lives.
The Excess Winter Death toll due to high energy costs in the rest of Europe is even higher.
I am in a particularly benevolent mood today Mike, so I’m not going to tell you how I really feel about you and your dangerous warmist bullsh!t. Suffice it to say that I strongly disapprove.
– Allan MacRae. P.Eng.
Reference:
COLD WEATHER KILLS 20 TIMES AS MANY PEOPLE AS HOT WEATHER
By Joseph D’Aleo and Allan MacRae, September 4, 2015
https://friendsofsciencecalgary.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/cold-weather-kills-macrae-daleo-4sept2015-final.pdf
“Where I live months of high humidity weather in the 90s or above is what we call “Summer”. ”
And that summarizes what most non-scientists know about climate.
Which also summarizes how much anyone should care about climate, and all we need to know about Alley.
Cold snaps prove “climate change” while heat waves prove “global warming”. Mann and his ilk have an extremely low opinion of the public’s intelligence; unfortunately, for about 25% of the public, the opinion appears to be correct.
Remember what George Carlin said: “Just think how stupid the average person is, then realize that half the people are even stupider!”
However, I do not think it is a matter of stupidity of the public, but fraud on some peoples’ part. People expect the climate scientists to be sharing info from other parts of the world and from periods before their birth. People assume their own experiences do not represent the big picture. They think they can trust climate scientists to be truthful.
SR
I just cannot read the BS anymore.
All anyone needs to know is this bit:
quote:
“We are seeing our predictions come true,” he said. “As a scientist that is reassuring, but as a citizen of planet Earth, it is very distressing to see that as it means we have not taken the necessary action.”
endquote
The fake humility is sickening – ‘fake’ being the operative here.
We know it, he knows it and here we have that ‘Gerald Ratner’ moment where it is actually admitted.
sweet
ReallySkeptical is a member of the flock of the Church of Warming which is a sect of the religion of Secular Socialism, whose deity is the government. One would have an easier time arguing the veracity of the virgin birth with an Evangelical than disagreeing with the dogma of his cult. Disagreement or providing facts that are in conflict with the epistle handed down from his clergy like Mann will result in cries of heretic i.e. denier or the ultimate heresy-capitalist. People like Mann are the equivalent of the educated clergy of yore who provided legitimacy to the king’s right to rule and thus the church/clergy got to share in the spoils taken from the peasants by the king. Like all religion the Church of Warming mutates an individual’s spirituality for the leaders personal enrichment and power. There is little difference between Al Gore and Joel Osteen.
“People like Mann”….Billyjack, you believe people like Dr. Spencer do not deserve the ire you feel for Mann, correct? Am I right to think you are not intending to place blame on Dr. Spencer?
I agree with your assessments of the faults of some religions and and some operators therein, but I do not believe faulting all who are religious (“Like all religion”) is any more warranted than faulting all scientists.
Also, the subject of this thread is Mann’s behavior. Why try to redirect it?
SR
Does global warming also cause extreme cold? Bolivian farmers just lost 60,000 cattle to cold. PS Warming REDUCES the equator to polar temperature difference that drives earth’s heat engine and winds, lowering earth’s Carnot efficiency. http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2292793&CategoryId=14919
Why are you posting a story from 2014?
Caracas,
Sunday
July 29,2018
“60,000 Cattle Dead in Bolivia Cold Wave”
D’OH !!
How many ‘factualists’ are there on either side of this issue: How many people are there who are making a good and honest effort to play with a full deck of the facts?
It seems to me that maybe the “who is winning” in the ongoing argument has become the premier issue objective.
******************************************************************************************************
There is a reality and there is just one version of reality. Reality is what it is. A ‘truth’ is what it is. Each truth is part of the whole truth. The sum of all truths is equal to the one reality.
If the debate was about how many grains of sand were to be found on an average beach, then there would be little incentive to deal with other than the facts. However, the alarmists are advocating significant political and economic changes based on their ‘facts.’ People are being taxed to support subsidies for alternative energy sources, and environmental degradation is endorsed to provide biofuels. So, one shouldn’t be surprised if those opposing the changes resort to similar tactics to counter what is a political struggle rather than a search for facts and truth.
If the two of them were still around today, Mann would be taking his cues from Jim Jones and David Koresh. With his massive ego and extraordinary arrogance level, I have little doubt that Mann thoroughly enjoys playing the role of a high priest in what has commonly been referred to and characteristically described as a cult. In the eyes of its believers, the climate alarmist narrative (as is any cult) is holy, infallible and unquestionable, and Mann no doubt has every intention of making sure it stays that way.
But that which is built on a shaky foundation must surely come tumbling down sooner or later. How long it will take the CAGW narrative to come tumbling down on top of Michael Mann remains to be seen, but the day it happens will certainly be an interesting one indeed.
Where have I seen those beady eyes before?
Ah yes, on a rat.
Extreme mendaciousness is the most noticeable effect of anthropogenic climate change.
“We literally would not have seen these extremes in the absence of climate change.”
There has never been an absence of climate change.
MIchael Mann, the author of the fraudulent hockey stick graph, should have no business talking about science. He lost all credibility long ago as a scientist.
“We literally would not have seen these extremes in the absence of climate change.”
Yup, the whole Earth would have been a pleasant “Antarctica”, and we wouldn’t have existed!
Greenhouse gas warming
should warm the polar areas the most.
(I know that’s not happening in Antarctica,
but forget that for now!)
That would result in a smaller temperature differential
between the tropics and the polar areas.
A smaller temperature differential
should cause milder weather
on our planet.
That’s basic meteorology,
and Mann doesn’t even know that.
Of course no one knows what the climate
would be like today, in the absence of man made
CO2 in the air, but many will claim they know.
I’m still waiting for scientific proof
that 4.5 billion years of natural climate change
suddenly stopped,
or became a minor factor,
in 1940,
and suddenly humans became the “climate
controller” — did you ever notice that the
global warmunists never try to explain
what they claim?
Because it’s hard to explain climate change
boogeymen, and fairy tales !
My climate blog:
http://www.elOnionBloggle.Blogspot.com
“I’m still waiting for scientific proof
that 4.5 billion years of natural climate change
suddenly stopped ….. ”
It hasn’t – it’s just that a human life-span is to puny to register it. Vis orbital eccentricity changes.
“suddenly humans became the “climate
controller” ”
It’s because we have burned fossilised carbon long enough to have nearly increased atmospheric carbon by 50%, with the same again having been absorbed by the oceans.
That should have happened over 10,000’s years by the above via feedback.
Here in the UK we have experienced hot weather this summer as we often do, although those writing apocalyptic headlines do not always seem to know this.
These anecdotal snippets, from a wide variety of observers, are derived from the start of my detailed weather date base in the 13th Century- when reports became more numerous and reliable- which show many references to hot dry summers and severe drought, even in this 50 year segment. The 13th century is generally thought to be the start of a long and irregular decline to the intermittent Little Ice Age. The few hundred years preceding it are often known as the Medieval warm period.
1238 Great floods in many parts during December. Cloudy and rainy in beginning until Spring had passed, then the drought and heat were beyond measure and custom in two or more of the summer months. Great deluge of rain in the autumn that straw and grain became rotten and an unnatural autumn which is held to be a cold and dry season gave rise to various fatal diseases.
1241 Drought from March 25 to Oct 28 and intolerable heat. Pastures withered, herds pined away from hunger and thirst.
1252 Very hot and dry summer, very wet autumn. Heat of the sun so great that all the earth became dry, no fruit grew on trees. At end of harvest there was great flooding breaking bridges, mills and houses adjoining the rivers.
Matthew Paris (a chronicler) notes that ‘In most of March and the whole of the months of April and May, the ground was burnt up by the sun, the wind continuing from South, West, North or East. The sun rose up to its solstitial culmination and its immoderate and intolerable heat so burned up the earths surface and multiplied its warmth that the herbage withered away. Moreover the heat continued into the night and generated flies flea and other injurious pests”.
He also writes ‘ in April, May, June and July, heat and drought prevailed intolerably, without beneficial sprinkling of rain or dew. Meadows were stripped of their grass, plant foliage withered.” According to John de Taxter ‘this year many died from the excessive heat of the summer. There was much thunderstorms.’ Robert of Gloucester noted (in 1270) ‘in the year of grace 1252 the summer was so dry and hot that even until this day there has been none hotter .”
1253 Dry summer and wet autumn and in spring and summer a prolonged drought. Flooding in autumn which ‘dried up after the feast of St Michael . happened in spring (drought) contrary to the nature of the season, for at the time of the equinox with the whole weather moderate there is customarily peace in the elements.’
Brooks and Glasspole believe 1252 and 1253 to be the driest consecutive years of which we have any historical account; (see Meteorological magazine 63 1928, page 4.)
1260 Great and prolonged summer drought so that barley and oats remained hidden in the ground even until autumn . However, showers then caused germination but they didn’t ripen due to lack of warmth. Great thunderstorm on June 23.
Matthew Parish noted: “In this summer great and enormous portents happened in the air so that some people said the last judgement was near. So many continuous thunderstorms that hardly anyone was bold enough to leave his house. (the London annals confirms these storms)
“During the Christmas period there was such continued fine weather and serenity of the air that one would have said that it was pleasant summer time rather than winter.”
1262 Hot summer
1263 Hot summer in Ireland with a great drought and also in England, “in which year the earth by the fierce heat of summer was so dried up there was no fruit and at the end of autumn there was so much rain there was flooding. Aurora noted on July 29th in London.”
1285 Neither snow nor ice were seen in Oxford to persist for the space of half a day during the winter. Other commenters noted this was such a very mild winter such that one aged man had never seen its like. Such a great summer drought and heat that men perished.
1288 Such a hot dry summer such as has not occurred during many years before and many men died. Others date this from beginning of July ‘ there began an intolerable heat and an increasing great drought which endured continually for 5 weeks with no rain at all. ‘
(Generally) Very warm, dry, settled summers from 1284 to 1311 according to Hubert Lambs’ “Climate History and the Modern World”
There are numerous examples of very severe weather throughout my many centuries of records, whether very hot and dry, or cold and snowy. These are frequently topped or tailed by the opposite condition. Severe Flooding appears to be a common condition before and after a drought.
tonyb
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-CHhqDDLM-2I/TiZYUsNomWI/AAAAAAAAAKs/lYqI8GaDBOw/s1600/peter-pettigrew-mobile-wallpaper.jpg
So, there wouldn’t be one “extreme weather event” in the entire world if not for humans?
Guess he never read about the extremes of the 1930’s! He’s so easily Mannipulated!