Ben Santer: Climate Change Responsible for Hotter and Colder Weather

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

A new study by Ben Santer which claims that climate change is strengthening the heartbeat of the world’s climate, making winters colder and summers warmer.

Climate change strengthens Earth’s ‘heartbeat’ – and that’s bad news

By Chelsea Gohd, Space.com Staff Writer

Climate change is much more than rising temperatures and melting ice. In a new study, scientists from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and five other organizations show that human action significantly affects the seasonal temperature cycle in the troposphere, or lowest layer of Earth’s atmosphere — the layer that we live in where weather occurs.

In this new study, scientists examined seasonal temperature cycles in the troposphere and observed the profound impact humans are having on the atmosphere and our seasons. Most notably, the researchers found that because of carbon dioxide emissions, Earth’s seasonal “heartbeat,” or the contrast between hot summers and cold winters, is becoming stronger.

“Our results suggest that attribution studies with the changing seasonal cycle provide powerful and novel evidence for a significant human effect on Earth’s climate,” Benjamin Santer, LLNL climate scientist and lead author on the new work, said in a statement.

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/science/2018/07/25/climate-change-strengthens-earths-heartbeat-and-thats-bad-news.html

The abstract of the study;

Human influence on the seasonal cycle of tropospheric temperature

Benjamin D. Santer, Stephen Po-Chedley, Mark D. Zelinka, Ivana Cvijanovic, Céline Bonfils, Paul J. Durack, Qiang Fu2, Jeffrey Kiehl, Carl Mears, Jeffrey Painter, Giuliana Pallotta, Susan Solomon, Frank J. Wentz, Cheng-Zhi Zou

We provide scientific evidence that a human-caused signal in the seasonal cycle of tropospheric temperature has emerged from the background noise of natural variability. Satellite data and the anthropogenic “fingerprint” predicted by climate models show common large-scale changes in geographical patterns of seasonal cycle amplitude. These common features include increases in amplitude at mid-latitudes in both hemispheres, amplitude decreases at high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere, and small changes in the tropics. Simple physical mechanisms explain these features. The model fingerprint of seasonal cycle changes is identifiable with high statistical confidence in five out of six satellite temperature datasets. Our results suggest that attribution studies with the changing seasonal cycle provide powerful evidence for a significant human effect on Earth’s climate.

Read more: http://science.sciencemag.org/content/361/6399/eaas8806

Ben Santer is one of the more colourful climategate characters. He rose to fame after his email threat to beat the cr*p out of Pat Michaels was uncovered in the Climategate archive.

But there are plenty of other entertaining Santer emails. My personal favourite Santer climategate email is 1231257056.txt, in which he expresses outrage at having to release data and method to “scientific competitors”.

1. In my considered opinion, a very dangerous precedent is set if any derived quantity that we have calculated from primary data is subject to FOIA requests. At LLNL’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI), we have devoted years of effort to the calculation of derived quantities from climate model output. These derived quantities include synthetic MSU temperatures, ocean heat content changes, and so-called “cloud simulator” products suitable for comparison with actual satellite-based estimates of cloud type, altitude, and frequency. The intellectual investment in such calculations is substantial.

2. Mr. Smith asserts that “there is no valid intellectual property justification for withholding this data”. I believe this argument is incorrect. The synthetic MSU temperatures used in our IJoC paper – and the other examples of derived datasets mentioned above – are integral components of both PCMDI’s ongoing research, and of proposals we have submitted to funding agencies (DOE, NOAA, and NASA). Can any competitor simply request such datasets via the U.S. FOIA, before we have completed full scientific analysis of these datasets?

Source: Wikileaks

The latest Santer effort is interesting in the context of other climate predictions. Remember back when climate alarmists were predicting warmer winters and shorter snow seasons? The most impressive effort of the “warmer winter” cycle of predictions, in my opinion, is Dr. Trenberth’s prediction of warmer, shorter winters AND more snow in midwinter.

Does global warming mean more or less snow?

Kevin Trenberth
January 30, 2015 9.43pm AEDT

Going forward, in mid winter, climate change means that snowfalls will increase because the atmosphere can hold 4% more moisture for every 1°F increase in temperature. So as long as it does not warm above freezing, the result is a greater dump of snow.

In contrast, at the beginning and end of winter, it warms enough that it is more likely to rain, so the total winter snowfall does not increase. Observations of snow cover for the northern hemisphere indeed show slight increases in mid-winter (December-February) but huge losses in the spring (see snow cover figure above.) This is all part of a trend to much heavier precipitation in the United States (see figure below), especially in the northeast.

Read more: https://theconversation.com/does-global-warming-mean-more-or-less-snow-36936

Former NASA GISS director James Hansen went the other way with his scientific crystal ball, he produced a 2016 prediction of an imminent sharp drop in both Summer and Winter temperatures, followed by runaway warming.

Global temperature becomes an unreliable diagnostic of planetary condition as the ice melt rate increases. Global energy imbalance (Fig. 15b) is a more meaningful measure of planetary status as well as an estimate of the climate forcing change required to stabilize climate. Our calculated present energy imbalance of ∼ 0.8 W m−2 (Fig. 15b) is larger than the observed 0.58 ± 0.15 W m−2 during 2005–2010 (Hansen et al., 2011). The discrepancy is likely accounted for by excessive ocean heat uptake at low latitudes in our model, a problem related to the model’s slow surface response time (Fig. 4) that may be caused by excessive small-scale ocean mixing.

Large scale regional cooling occurs in the North Atlantic and Southern oceans by mid-century (Fig. 16) for 10-year doubling of freshwater injection. A 20-year doubling places similar cooling near the end of this century, 40 years ear- lier than in our prior simulations (Fig. 7), as the factor of 4 increase in current freshwater from Antarctica is a 40-year advance.

Cumulative North Atlantic freshwater forcing in sverdrup years (Sv years) is 0.2 Sv years in 2014, 2.4 Sv years in 2050, and 3.4Sv years (its maximum) prior to 2060 (Fig. S14). The critical issue is whether human-spurred ice sheet mass loss can be approximated as an exponential process during the next few decades. Such nonlinear behavior depends upon amplifying feedbacks, which, indeed, our climate simulations reveal in the Southern Ocean. …

Read more: http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/3761/2016/acp-16-3761-2016.pdf

Lucky climate science is settled, otherwise all these apparently conflicting climate predictions might cause real confusion.

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JohnWho

Yep, a changing climate sure makes things different even when they are the same.

Farmer Ch E retired

It’s deja vu all over again! Climate science predictions are changing just like the weather!

Matthew Thompson

The planet will get so warm that we will freeze to death.

Hoyt Clagwell

It rained all night
The day I left
The weather it was dry.
The sun so hot
I froze to death
Suzanna don’t you cry
(Oh Susanna)

H.R.

“Please turn to page 42 in the CAGW Hymnal and let us join our voices in song.”

Reminds of a novelty hit in the early 1950s “Grandma’s Lye Soap”.
Had to look it up.
“It’s In The Book”–Johnny Standley.
Bob Hoye

Pop Piasa

Here ya go…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sa1FwCidoOk
Real Americana, for sure.

ThomasJK

This article epitomizes the unhinged state of climate alarmism. At this point, it seems that it is flexible enough in its interpretation that it can be used as rationa’le to support any variety of spuriously illogical hypothesis.

drednicolson

The fabled gorebalwoahmann can do anything and be anywhere.

Bryan A

There was an old joke about being flexible enough to touch a certain male member to ones own sphincter muscle

Hivemind

This is a great theory, but it founders on the rocks of history. The term climate change was invented exactly because summers weren’t getting warmer (for 20 years). So it’s a bit rich to say the latest unvalidated computer program claims they will get warmer.

As far as winters getting colder; well, I remember the early days of these computer programs and they were so bad that they were all over the place. Hence the claim that if it was hotter, that was global warming and if it was colder, that was global warming too. Non-predictions like these give climate ‘scientists’ a bad name.

They wait to see what the weather does, then they predict it. Rinse and repeat.

James Schrumpf

“They wait to see what the weather does, then they [claim they] predict[ed] it. Rinse and repeat.”

joelobryan

Bad scientists like Santer give science a bad name.

Greg Goodman

So better concentrate on his bad science than making false claims :

He rose to fame after his email threat to beat the cr*p out of Pat Michaels was uncovered in the Climategate archive.

If something is said between colleges and not intended to reach the subject’s ear, it CAN NOT be called a threat.

It was a pretty stupid thing to say but it was not a threat.

Greg Goodman

I would have thought that his rewriting of a chapter of AR4 AFTER it had been carefully debated and agreed on was a more relevant thing to remember him for than a silly email comment.

AR4 had global impact.

Alan Tomalty

And it came to the exact opposite conclusion that the AR4 scientists had come to prompting some of them to quit.

hunter

Nice bit of mental gymnastics.
Do you actually believe that?

michael hart

In a really quite small group of people you can be fairly sure that gossip spreads around quite effectively. You could argue that Santer ought to suspect that his expressed desire would eventually come to the ears of those he was talking about. As such, I think that constitutes a threat.

drednicolson

Three can keep a secret, if two of them are dead and the last one stays off the Internet.

MarkW

If I make a threat to the kill the president, and he never sees it, does this mean I will never get a visit from the secret service?

A threat is a threat, whether or not the target is aware of it.

Bryan A

There is a vast difference between stating to a colleague that you are “Thinking” about “beating the cr*p” out of someone and actually telling your colleague you are going to the next time you see the person in question.
Since the exact quote was

I’m really sorry that you have to go through all this stuff, Phil. Next time I see Pat Michaels at a scientific meeting, I’ll be tempted to beat the crap out of him. Very tempted. –Dr. Ben Santer, Climategate emails

It appears that it was still in the “Thinking About” category so not any Legal Threat but a definite potential threat.
If you were to make that statement to someone regarding the President, and it was made known to the Secret Service, you can bet they would be all over you in a heartbeat if the president were anywhere close to your location. So it would still be considered a threat in some cases.

Jeff Alberts

“Bad scientists like Santer give science a bad name.”

I’m still trying to figure out why it took years and years for them to crunch some numbers. It’s not like they were going out and doing field work. They were just looking at already collected data, and apparently trying to figure out how to make it look as scary as possible. I guess I answered my own question.

Louis Hunt

They must be starting to worry about cooling or another plateau in global temperatures. Even after fudging (I mean correcting) the data, average global temperatures are not going up as fast as predicted. So now they’ve come up with a new twist to the plot that doesn’t require average yearly temperatures to go up at all. If winters are colder and summers are hotter, the average can stay about the same and still allow them to predict global catastrophe unless we make them our overlords and do what they say. Never mind that if we do what they say, it will bring on a greater catastrophe than CO2 could ever dream of causing.

JPK

According to the IPCC, AGW results in warmer winter and warmer night time temps. These people are just making up this crap as they go

Patrick J Wood

NOAA and NASA need to be purged and reorganized with actual scientists. I can’t believe the taxpayers are funding this garbage.

joelobryan

Santer works for DOE on a different self-licking ice cream cone project using LLNLs supercomputer resources that normally studies nuclear bomb aging.

jeanparisot

Hopefully someone is checking the math there

commieBob

It’s models all the way down. link

Pat Frank

Not a single physically valid error bar in the entire paper. It’s narrativism, not science.

john harmsworth

You are correct, and far too forgiving.

Jeff Alberts

And for paleo data, any error bars are probably completely wrong anyway.

joelobryan

They use what they call “S/N ratios” to determine their significance, not actual temperatures. Noise comes from the “pre-industrial control run, i.e. CO2 held at 280 ppm, the signal comes from HIST+RCP85 ensemble average for period 1979-2016.

The plots they show are for seasonal (they call it: annual cycle, AC) is a comparison of the AC from 3 different satellite data sets (RSS, STAR, UAH) and their melded “Climate Model Average”.

The Climate Model Average is data set joining between the CMIP5 “historical” runs (1979-2005) and the CMIP5 RCP8.5 ensemble average (2005 to 2016).

Figure 2 of their paper is their “money” diagram:

comment image
Fig. 2 Trends over 1979 to 2016 in the annual mean (left column) and annual cycle (right column) of corrected TMT.

Satellite TMT data (A to F) and model TMT data (G and H) are described in Fig. 1. The stippling in (G) and (H) denotes grid points where the multimodel average trend in the annual mean or annual cycle exceeds the between-model standard deviation of the trend by at least a factor of 1.5. For the annual mean, tropical warming in UAH is noticeably reduced relative to RSS and STAR. Results are displayed on a common 5° × 5° latitude/longitude grid.

The right column of panels (the AC ones, that is B, D, F, and H) are the panels to concentrate on.
I will make two points here on these figures.

1. First note that the satellite observations (B,D,F) of deep red and darker blues all show much higher levels of variability (greater range) than the simulation (panel H, the HIST+RCP85). That tells us that there is a high level of variability in the observed seasonal signal, that is much higher than the seasonal signal of the simulation. That informs us that the simulation does a poor job of recreating the actual (observed) variability in seasonal climate. This problem is especially acute for RSS (panel B) compared to simulation (panel H). The model simulations are not capturing the actual range of AC variation.

2. The spatial coverage of the deeper red and blue shading the satellite observations does a poor job of matching the simulation, most especially the UAH and to the STAR as well. The best spatial fit of the Simulation is to the RSS panel. But even there the only good fit spatially, the RSS panel has the greatest AC data range (problem #1 above). And don’t even try to compare the areas outside of the mid-latitudal Northern Hemisphere (NH). It completely falls apart in most of the world, especially the Arctic where another AGW “finger print” is supposed to be the strongest.

Conclusion: Ben’s seasonal climate AGW “finger-print” only works in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude, but only just barely there. The simulation far underestimates the actual variability observed, which means the CMIP5 ensemble does a very poor job of recreating internal variability. And that “finger-print” completely falls apart outside that NH geographic band in the rest of the world. That is not much of a finger-print.

I’ll make one final point and my answer is conjecture.
The immediate question I have is “Why RCP8.5 simulations from CMIP5? And not the more reasonable RCP6.0 simulations?”

My conjecture is that if they used the reasonable RCP6.0 ensemble average to compare to the satellite records, then the internal seasonal variability problem is far worse.

joelobryan

For a real hoot get a load of Santer, et al. Figure 4.

comment image
Zonal mean trends over 1979 to 2016 in monthly averages of corrected TMT.

Results are for the latest versions of the RSS, STAR, and UAH satellite datasets [(A to C), respectively] and for the multimodel average of the CMIP5 HIST+8.5 simulations (D). The plus symbols in (D) indicate multimodel average trends that exceed the between-model standard deviation of the zonal-mean monthly mean trend by at least a factor of 1.5. As in Fig. 3, all satellite and model temperature data were transformed to a common 5° × 5° latitude/longitude grid prior to zonal averaging.

This is true Wizard of Oz stuff. They need you to just ignore that solid red equatorial band, 20N to 20S, in the simulation (panel D) that is not there in the Satellite obs (panels A-C). This is the missing LTL hotspot problem, Ben’s other failed fingerprint. And Ben also only wants you to look at the June-July-August summer time match of the model to the same period in the satellite obs, but only in the NH 30N to 50N band. That is true Cherry picking the +results to get something to report.

Truly a hoot (and a lie) to call model prediction of seasonal variability a finger-print of CO2-AGW theory.

brians356

So … that “The End Of Snow” thing – not so much? Good to know.

NW Sage

Are ANY of the points made in the paper supported by serious peer review? ie, what were the review questions asked and the responses to those questions? Until we get the answers to those questions we have to assume the quality of the paper is only as good as the chief author’s reputation – and that is not very good.

DHR

So winters get colder and summers hotter. Overall, no change, perhaps? Thats a switch from earlier model results saying that nights get warmer but not days. It seems that “climate science” surely is not settled. It offers something for everybody.

Hmm. And Hmm again, and again……

saveenergy

” It seems that “climate science” surely is not settled. It offers something for everybody.”

Just like all Religious texts

Tom Abbott

“So winters get colder and summers hotter.”

This summer is definitely not hotter. It’s quite pleasant actually. Santer must not be talking about this year. 🙂

Herbert

I understand the theory of CAGW ( Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming)-
Adding human sourced greenhouse gases to the atmosphere will warm the atmosphere,potentially disastrously.
However what exactly is the theory of Dangerous Anthropogenic Climate Change?
What are the indicia and consequences of such a theory?
Burning fossil fuels will cause “ climate disruption”?
How does one validate or invalidate such a theory?

Marcus

If you want to drive a liberal Eco-Freak crazy, just ask them when the climate was NOT changing !!

Richard of NZ

My comment to CAGW protagonists is I’m glad that climate changes otherwise I would live under some miles of ice.

Clyde Spencer

You might consider asking them what the optimum climate is and why,

Tom Abbott

The way to invalidate the current CAGW theory is to compare the predictions to that which is observed.

The Climate Alarmists are continually predicting one disaster after another, but we never see any of these disasters occurring. So you have to conclude the Climate Alarmist’s predictions are not consistent with reality.

Alan Tomalty

I have been looking for global warming for 30 years and havent found it yet How many times does a boy have to cry Wolf?

Marcus

“A new study by Ben Santer which claims that climate change is strengthening the heartbeat of the world’s climate, making winters colder and summers warmer.”

And “normal” weather becomes more….ummm….normaler ?

Latitude

What did good old Ben base his study on? we just went though almost 2 decades of no warming at all

Tom Abbott

I wonder if ole Ben just made it up like he did with AR4, when he claimed humans were definitely causing the climate to change in ways it wouldn’t do without human input, a claim not made by the scientists who worked on AR4. Ole Ben just added his opinion as if it were established fact. I don’t know how he still has any credibility after that little episode of truth distortion.

Latitude

here we go>>>” in five out of six satellite temperature datasets. In these five datasets, S/N ratios for the 38-year satellite record “…

…so half of the temp data set was no temp change at all

rocketscientist

“double secret normaler”

drednicolson

We’re gonna normal so much that we’ll get tired of normal!

Latitude

They can’t even define natural variability…have no clue what it should be

Pat Frank

Jim Hansen usedhis 1988 paper with Sergej Lebedeff to pretty much define natural variability as the ±0.13°C jitter in global air temperature during his 1951-1980 normal period.

(1988) GRL 15(4) 323-326

The standard deviation of annual-mean global-mean temperature about the 30-year mean is 0.13°C for the period 1951-1980. Thus the 1987 global temperature of 0.33°C, relative to the 1951-1980 climatology, is a warming of between 2-sigma and 3-sigma. If a warming of 3-sigma is reached, it will represent a trend significant at the 99% confidence level. However, causal connection of the warming with the greenhouse effect requires examination of the expected climate system response to a slowly evolving climate forcing, a subject beyond the scope of this paper.

Compare that with his written 1988 testimony to the Senate Committee: “The standard deviation of 0.13°C is a typical amount by which the global temperature fluctuates annually about its 30-year mean; the probability of a chance warming of three standard deviations is about 1%. Thus we can state with about 99% confidence that current temperatures represent a real warming trend rather than a chance fluctuation over the 30 year period.

Note that Hansen didn’t put any “±” next to his 0.13°C standard deviation. Nick Stokes would insist that’s evidence that Hansen meant to convey the 0.13°C as a strictly positive offset.

Clyde Spencer

Pat,
Once again, to estimate the actual noise in the data, the 1951-1980 time-series should be de-trended and the SD calculated for that de-trended residual. Hansen’s behavior seems to epitomize Mark Twain’s remark that statistics don’t lie, but statisticians do.

Rich Davis

The quote attributed to Twain is “Figures don’t lie, but liars figure.”

Clyde Spencer

You’ll notice I didn’t use quotation marks. However, the meaning is different how?

Rich Davis

It’s not different, just thought I’d share the actual quote is all.

Clyde Spencer
hunter

Claiming that period of time and range if temperature is “normal” is a laughable but of fiction.

Jeff Alberts

Global mean temperature is meaningless. Toss out any paper that uses it.

Ian W

Bu..bu..but we’ve worked out the mean New York telephone number to 5 places of decimals…

SAMURAI

Ben Santer says, “Earth’s seasonal “heartbeat,” or the contrast between hot summers and cold winters, is becoming stronger.”

We’ve got some bad news, Ben…

The CAGW ho@x is about to face a catastrophic heart attack with cooler summers and colder winters when the PDO, AMO and NAO are all in their respective 30-year cool cycles from around 2021, and when the sun enters its weakest solar cycle since 1790 from 2021…

I can’t wait to see the excuses CAGW advocates come up with to explain falling global temps trends, with the disparity between CMIP5 global average warming model projections vs. reality exceeding 3~5 standard deviations..

CMIP5 average model projections projected a +1.2C global temp anomaly by now, when reality (UAH 6.0) shows just a +0.21C anomaly.

It’s not helping “The Cause”, that the current El Nino cycle is turning out to be a complete dud, which may be followed by a cold La Nina from around 2020.

And the beat goes on…

I think El Nino not to likely ,not that it really matters in the big picture.

SAMURAI

Salvatore-san:

Natural Super El Nino/strong El Nino events are major ploys CAGW advocates use to push the CAGW narrative, which they propagandize 24/7 when they occur, and then go silent when global cooling occurs during La Nina events…

You’re correct that these natural events should not drive the science, but since when has CAGW been about science???

Ulric Lyons

It’s a solar minimum and the AMO is warm, it was warm during the last solar minimum, and it must have been warm during the Dalton Minimum for ships to record great loss of sea ice 1815-1817.
comment image

Brent Walker

I think Ben has just proved that he hasn’t read historical weather records of even just 200 years ago. He is obviously not mathematically equipped to recognize patterns since he has not recognized weather patterns that are associated with long periods of low sunspot activity.

hunter

Ben the rewrite ambush specialist is mathematically equipped to ignore history, rewrite papers, hide trends and synthesize new trends and beat up people who he disagrees with.

Brent Walker

When I was at school guys before they got caned used to line many sheets of newspaper inside their trousers. Maybe this figuratively what Ben is doing – papering his ass before he eventually gets caned for all of his lying.

drednicolson

At my school, you dropped trow and took it on your bare behind. Then your parents were likely to deliver a followup swat when you got home.

100% false. You can’t have it both ways. They never stop.

Cephus0

Is it any wonder the public have totally lost any remote interest they once may have had in the endlessly wrong shabby overcoat, wild-haired, climate rapture street corner preachers.

Percy Jackson

Eric,
Despite what you claim the study does not state that climate change will make “winters colder and summers warmer.” Even Fox News is able to correctly summarise the paper as saying that “summers are warming more rapidly than the other seasons” so in other words both winters and summers are getting warmer but the rate of increase in summer is larger.

Richard M

Except there is no evidence the summers are getting warmer. Even RSS data disputes this claim when you leave out the noisy years.

RSS
April-August 1980-81 14.5 C (58.1F) .03C
April-August 1990….. 14.6 C (58.1F) .05C
April-August 1995-96 14.6 C (58.2F) .10C
April-August 2001-02 14.8 C (58.6F) .31C
April-August 2007….. 14.7 C (58.5F) .24C
April-August 2014….. 14.8 C (58.6F) .30C
April-June…..2018….. 14.8 C (58.6F) .27C

Maybe what he really means is El Nino summer years are getting warmer. Doesn’t exactly fit the idea that humans are responsible.

Percy Jackson

Richard,
I have no idea what you think those RSS numbers are showing. But they would appear to
suggest that 1980 the average summer temperature was 14.5C and in 2018 the average temperature so far is 14.8 giving a rise of 0.3C so it would appear to show that summers are getting warmer.

Richard M

Percy, you need to look closer. There’s been no real change this century. That would indicate the warming that happened last century had a cause that has since ended.

Add to that the fact we know the climate cooled from 1940-1980 and it’s very reasonable to conclude the summers haven’t warmed in almost 80 years.

Jeff Alberts

0.3C in 38 years!!! OMFG!!! HIDE THE CHILDREN!!!!

Sorry, I was channeling Trevor the Hyperventilator.

honest liberty

So then Percy, what is your stance on CAGW?

What specifically do you believe about it, and I stress the word believe. What is it about CO2, the climate, and man’s role that you specifically believe?
Please be as specific, but direct as possible.

Thanks.

John Endicott

It also suggests the 2001 average summer temperature was 14.8 C and in 2018 so far it is 14.8C giving a rise/fall of 0.0 C so it would appear to show that for the 21st century (so far) summers have been static (dare I say “paused”), getting neither colder nor warmer.

Latitude

“so in other words both winters and summers are getting warmer but the rate of increase in summer is larger”

how quickly they forget……we just went though almost 2 decades of no warming at all

Clyde Spencer

Percy,
It is true that since about 1985 the T-max temperatures have been increasing more rapidly than the T-min temperatures (according to the BEST land temp data). However, that creates a problem for alarmists because the theory behind AGW is that nights and Winters should be showing more warming (actually less cooling) than days and Summers. That is exactly what my Figure 1 above shows, up until about 1985. What is needed is an explanation as to why the warming pattern doesn’t agree with theory, and what happened about 1985.

Percy Jackson

Percy,
You need to read the paper. It shows that models predict that summers will warmer faster
than winters and then tries and succeeds to find evidence for this in recent satellite data sets. So the theory predicts exactly what has been observed in the observations.

Jeff Alberts

Sounds like they ignored evidence to the contrary. “Models predict this, so let’s go find it!”

Crispin in Waterloo

That is a self-fooling type of confirmation bias. I have not heard before that winters will warm slower than summers. That seems an obvious mismatch with thousands of “warming” claims preceding it.

TimTheToolMan

The problem is, Percy, that this is a new result that is opposite of what has been shown many times before. For example…

https://phys.org/news/2016-03-nights-warmer-faster-days.html

Santer wanted a result that was more alarming than the earth moderating its temperatures. He look and found it, apparently. When you’re motivated to find a result like that, it destroys credibility.

…like he had any to begin with. Santer is responsible for the massive own goal that dismissed the GCMs by suggesting it was highly unlikely the earth could make 17 years of no warming because that’s what the models allowed for. Unfortunately for him a few years later mother nature did just that.

joelobryan

They knew the result they were looking for, then re-ran the models tuned to provide that result.

When they can actually predict the future, then I will believe them.

JPK

The IPCC projected warming winters. Santers all of a sudden contradicts this.

Clyde Spencer

Percy,
You said, “…both winters and summers are getting warmer but the rate of increase in summer is larger.”

That is the opposite of what CO2-induced AGW predicts!

taxed

Climate change of this nature will have little to with CO2.
What can cause this type of climate change is semi-permanent area’s of high pressure sitting over northern land masses. Because while during the summer this type of patterning will become “heat domes”. Once we move into the winter they soon turn into freezers.

Steven Fraser

Just had one’of those over texas…

hunter

Had? I would say the high is still here in Houston!

Gordon Dressler

Taken in context, it seems to me that “climate change” could, at any point in time, have one of the four possible gradient combinations:
1) Making winters colder and summers hotter,
2) Making winters hotter and summers hotter,
3) Making winters hotter and summers colder, or
4) Making winters colder and summers colder.

Should I therefore be alarmed that one of the 25% equal-probability* states has happened? Even if it is true?

* Based on climate history reconstructions over the last 1 billion years.

Gary Pearse

Santer warmer summers colder winters – hey what are you going to say when temperatures have stopped going up for about as long as the warming scare itself? And Hansen’s ‘global temperatures are not a useful metric’ is a response to the same stalled temperatures. They see the frightening cooling oceans. They realize that they have shot most of their bolts adjusting the data and now they have to show that temperature rise isn’t necessary to show …err… global warming.

Tom Abbott

Exactly! The Climate Alarmists are backpeddling. They are creating their excuses for why the temperatures are not rising with the CO2 levels.

Matt G

“Climate Change Responsible for Hotter and Colder Weather”

Whatever happens next is always climate change responsible for A,B,C,D? It doesn’t matter if A,B,C or D goes up, goes down or stays the same. There is no science involved here at all other that blaming everything that happens on a religion that doesn’t distinguish anything from natural climate.

When a succession of milder winters and cooler summers happen in future, this will still be blamed on climate change.

No, climate change is not responsible for this because between the 1970’s and 2000’s while global temperatures were significantly warming (normally expected). The summers were getting warmer mainly due to minimum temperatures being less cool and especially winters milder because of minimum temperatures being significantly less cold. This century the pattern has changed more and more cooler summers and colder winters have occurred between the occasional hot summers and more usual milder winters.

What has changed? Increasing CO2? No, this has been occurring for decades before. Lower solar activity changes the jet stream into more meridional longer duration pattern, increased global cloud levels and reduced solar insolation to the surface. This resulted in more energy loss to space and the pause/hiatus that happened for much of this century.

Increasing blocking patterns have occurred with meridional jet stream that causes stubborn high pressure omega blocks that keeps weather patterns around the world stuck for longer periods. That means cooler/wetter regions persist for longer and hotter/drier regions persist for longer. Blocking patterns normally lead to lower minimums in summer and lower minimums in winter, depending on whether land or ocean source. The ocean source is usually more favourable with a zonal jet stream.

Previously between the 1970’s and 2000’s the jet stream was increasingly becoming zonal making worlds weather less severe. Now after these blocks start appearing more frequent again, they are blamed on climate change when there are a result of an opposite change to what was originally blamed on for most of last century.

Steven Fraser

How does this work? If the climate is the average of the weather, how does the climat affect the weather? /sarc

Matt G

True, thanks to the awful terminology ‘climate change’ only weather patterns determines climate, not the other way round.

When the background signals change any influence on weather patterns will be indicated as climate over the long term in the future. The alarmist use of climate change is awful terminology anyway when they use it only meaning AGW. It can easily be referred to any climate change natural, environmental or CO2 and brings up a strawman type argument.

Cooling planet, warming planet, changing water vapor and clouds etc can change weather over the long term and therefore ultimately climate.

fah

According to p. 9 of the DOE Public Access Plan (available on the internet):

“DMPs [Data Managtement Plans] should provide a plan for making all research data displayed in publications resulting from the proposed research open, machine-readable, and digitally accessible to the public at the time of publication. This includes data that are displayed in charts, figures, images, etc. In addition, the underlying digital research data used to generate the displayed data should be made as accessible as possible to the public in accordance with the principles stated above. The published article should indicate how these data can be accessed. Individual research offices will encourage researchers to deposit data in existing community or institutional repositories or to submit these data to the article publisher as supplemental information.”

I could not find the regulation just now, but when I was last intimately familiar with LLNL policies, I remember being told that on a request from a public or business entity, LLNL must provide data (and even computer code) unless a national security, privacy or private business proprietary exception could be claimed. This was particularly onerous when the request was for computer code because it required some documentation of the code to be provided, which often was not intended for public or non-expert use.

joelobryan

The CMIP5 models are all publicly accessible.

fah

As they should be, if they are the product of federally funded research. The issue in the article was the claim made (apparently – I don’t follow these issues closely enough to know if the quoted statements by Mr. Santer are accurate) that “primary data” should not be available and the notion that release of research data hurts their competitive capabilities. The DOE policy on data release is as stated, that everything should be released that is not excluded by national security considerations (i.e. nuclear weapon type information), privacy issues, or connection to proprietary information of businesses provided to the government for some reason. As far as competitiveness, the Economy Act (31 USC 1525) prohibits federal labs from competition with the private sector, unless the private sector simply cannot do the work. It dictates that work should be done by the private sector (i.e. commercial firms, universities, etc) unless the unique capabilities of the federal lab are such that only the federal lab can do the work cheaply and efficiently. Federal labs are rarely cheaper than the private sector for any effort.

Louis Hooffstetter

As an environmental consultant for over a decade, I wrote hundreds of reports for clients. I have also read hundreds of scientific papers and have better than average reading comprehension. But I can’t even get through the abstract of this twisted word pretzel. It’s borderline incomprehensible. I know that if you’re not a climatologist, you’re not qualified (or smart enough) to understand their sophisticated brand of science, but if I had written anything as obfuscating and confusing as this paper, I would have been fired.

Brings to mind the old saying: “If you can’t dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with Bullshit.”

Louis,
The Latin tag
‘Excretio taurii confusit cerebelli’ seems to sum it up.

Auto – with an eye for pig-Latin . . . .

JBom

“Climate” nor “Climate Change” have heartbeats. They are illusions.

Kleinefeldmus

Santer will never outlive this lousy jibe at Pat Michaels
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TonyL

Everybody help me remember, please.
There was a huge issue with one of the IPCC reports, SAR (second, 1995) if I recall.
The intro to the “Scientific Basis” Chapter 8, contained
“None of the studies cited above has shown clear evidence that we can attribute the observed [climate] changes to the specific cause of increases in greenhouse gases.”
and
“When will an anthropogenic effect on climate be identified? It is not surprising that the best answer to this question is, `We do not know. “‘

The text was duly peer-reviewed and agreed upon. Then at the last minute Santer deleted the above lines and inserted the text below:

“The body of statistical evidence in chapter 8, when examined in the context of our physical understanding of the climate system, now points to a discernible human influence on the global climate.”

This, of course, changed everything and turned things right on their head.
So it seems Santer has been banging on about the “human fingerprint” for quite some time.

Alan Tomalty

I dont understand why every climate scientist on that report didnt resign en mass.

Jeff Alberts

The proper thing to do would have been to fire Santer, and remove his wording. Giving up and walking away isn’t the answer.

Crispin in Waterloo

Many did. Something like 400 IIRC. It was at that point that the composition of the IPCC changed from mostly top scientists to mostly those who needed the publicity and footnotes in their CV’s.

The incompetence of the IPCC leadership and the bias exerted by the lead authors undermined the authority of their products that many ‘serious scientists’ no longer wanted to be associated with them.

These ad hoc ‘revisions’ also plague the ISO standard writing process. One can find text, objectionable to the experts and repeatedly refused, included in a final product “because it is needed”, according to the Convenors, meaning, they have a plan up their sleeve that is not viable without the expert-rejected text. Sound familiar?

Tom Abbott

“So it seems Santer has been banging on about the “human fingerprint” for quite some time.”

More properly described as “lying”.

Thanks for describing how Santer lied about Climate Change in AR4 and it’s connection to human CO2. He completely changed the meaning of AR4.

Why would anyone listen to Santer now?

The promoters of CAGW consist of many liars.

Stephen W

In other news… thermometers getting more precise.

philincalifornia

Gawd, Susan Solomon’s on this crap. How come Peter Gleick didn’t get a cameo role?

The human-caused signal just appeared in 2018 then? So what was all that blather about pre-2018 again ??

Tom Dayton

Yet another WTFIUWWUWT violent distortion of a serious, high quality, peer-reviewed, thorough, scientific paper. This blog has devolved from its ignominious start to the level of the Infowars blog. No sense of shame by Anthony Watts the editor. This blog has become merely tabloid trash. I give up.

i think you belong at ‘skepticalscience’

Sparky

Don’t go away mad. Just go away,…

hunter

Don’t let the door hit you as you leave.

Thomas Homer

“serious, high quality, peer reviewed, thorough, scientific paper”

From the article:
[ The synthetic MSU temperatures used in our IJoC paper – and the other examples of derived datasets mentioned above – are integral components of both PCMDI’s ongoing research, and of proposals we have submitted to funding agencies (DOE, NOAA, and NASA). ]

‘Synthetic’ temperatures and ‘derived’ datasets are integral components of serious, high quality research?

drednicolson

Concern troll is concerned.

Andre Dn Tandt

There is no doubt in my mind that winters were colder and summers hotter ( and drier ) in the 1970’s than they are now. But when you tie that to CO2 increases, as opposed to natural patterns of temperature change, that’s something else entirely. Springs on our 100 acres, fed by rainfall and marshes, are a good indicator of average rainfall, and they were always near dry by the end of summer. But not in the last 30 years or so. Not until now.

oh dear = another vanity beard setup.

Jeff Alberts

All he’s missing is his dunce cap and Harry Potter wand.

David Paul Zimmerman

Climate predictions reminds me of predictions of bitcoin price. When it is rising there is joy joy joy and when it is falling there is doom doom doom but it always seems to oscillate around a not very changing yet slowly rising central point.

David

More basis to reject the AGW nonsense. His reasoning is completely flawed.

Clyde Spencer

The evidence doesn’t support Santer’s claim. If you go to my analysis of the BEST temperature data [ https://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/08/11/an-analysis-of-best-data-for-the-question-is-earth-warming-or-cooling/ ] one can see in Fig. 1 that the difference between the average high and low temperatures was decreasing until about 1985, and only then started to increase some. However, it still is nowhere near as high as it was in the late-1800s.

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This argues against the extremes of seasons becoming greater.

Jeff Alberts

Well, it does seem to show that the extreme ends are getting farther apart, but not by much and not as much as they used to be. You said it yourself.

Jeff
Agreed.

Also, I note the graph begins in the 1870s.
Whilst I am sure the meteorologists of those days tried very hard to get accurate readings, I suspect – without a n y research – that there were fewer sites observing in the last quarter of the Nineteenth Century than there were in – say – 1970.
By eye – there was more (shorter term) variability then, which might be related. Or not.

Auto

Clyde Spencer

Auto,
Admittedly, BEST shows larger error bars for the early data. But, they considered it fit to publish. It is, after all, all that we have.

Clyde Spencer

Jeff,
The takeaway here is that what Santer is claiming only seems to be happening since about 1985, yet the claim is that AGW has been happening since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. That is, the recent change is not typical of the warming episode, and does not fit the hypothesis of what is causing warming. Santer is not supported by the historical data, and there is no explanation forthcoming from alarmists.

Stephen Singer

About all they’ve left out is ‘Wetter’ and Snowier.

ЯΞ√ΩLUT↑☼N

We provide scientific evidence that..
..anthropogenic “fingerprint” predicted by climate models..
..high statistical confidence..
Our results suggest that attribution studies with the changing seasonal cycle provide powerful evidence..

My bold.

All just words trying to sound sciency. Like advertising of the early 90’s used the sell-all word “total” and until recently used “clinically proven”, today “technology” is the advertising buzzword and implies any argument against their position is futile because “..even our janitors wear white coats”.

Likewise, “evidence” isn’t proof, and certainly not if predicted by a model that outputs whatever’s input. It’s just a mirror. Even less so again by using the weasel-word “suggest”.

This “study” is yet another fund-grab to produce little if anything but destructive propaganda and there’s a high statistical confidence that they’ll be allowed to continue doing this.

Jeff Alberts

“today “technology” is the advertising buzzword”

Yeah. My mouthwash has “technology”, not a formula.

Color me skeptical on this latest hypothesis.

Here is a summary of the bizarre “science” of the CO2 priesthood:

CO2 is the “Miracle Molecule”.

Increasing atmospheric CO2 causes:

– warming where it is warming

– and cooling where it is cooling

– and no change where there is no change in temperature

– and wilder weather when that happens

– and less extreme weather when that happens

– and no change where there is no change in weather extremes

– and human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together, mass hysteria…

My formal review of this paper follows:

“Mr. Madison, what you just said is the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone is this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wKjxFJfcrcA

🙂

ATheoK

Sounds like Santer has shadowboxed himself senseless. i.e. Even more senseless than his early climategate days.

That mighty magical CO₂ molecule causes hotter weather, colder weather and a lot of tepid or mild weather in between…
Did Santer fail to cover some of his climate bets somewhere?

Perhaps next week it’ll be drier weather with more rain and snow while the thunderclouds play hide and seek looking for the missing tropical hotspot?

What is more likely, is that Santer is doing CYA for the upcoming winters if the AMO stays negative.
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joelobryan

I guess they’ve given up on the tropical tropospheric hotspot as the finger-print of CO2 AGW. Apparently now a “heartbeat” of colder and hotter due to TheMagicMolecule. Can’t be wrong about that since climate is always naturally changing.

Ben Santer could not be more wrong. He has it exactly backward. Greenhouse gases deposit more heat to cold regions than they do to warm regions. This is true if the difference in temperatures is due to time (night vs day, or summer vs winter) or due to geography (tropic vs mid-latitudes vs sub-polar regions). The Modtran computer code affords an easy verification. The same addition of GHGs applied to sub-arctic summer compared to sub-arctic winter shows greater temperature increase in the winter.

One can also check out Joe Bastardi’s writings on this matter. He notes that it is harder to add heat to a warm substance than to a cool substance.

For GHG absorption it may be considered that such an energy boost to single molecule is transfered to the surrounding molecules by heat transfer: molecular collision (normal conduction) or by re-radiation. In the conduction case the amount of heat transferred is proportional to temperature difference and in the re-radiation case to the 4th power of temperature difference. Cool substances have greater temperature differences than the warm ones.

TomRude

That is why after so many years these “climate scientists” have managed to say everything and its contrary as a proof of CAGW.

Nick Werner

Why do I get the feeling that in Climate Science the lyrics to Oh Susannah would pass peer review?

It rained all night the day I left
The weather it was dry
The sun so hot I froze to death

Alan Tomalty

“The model fingerprint of seasonal cycle changes is identifiable with high statistical confidence in five out of six satellite temperature datasets.”

Would the one exception be the satellite temperature dataset from UAH which is the only one that both sides trust?

Alan Tomalty

https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/07/trends-in-the-seasonal-temperature-cycle-bear-human-fingerprint/

“There is an interesting exception that doesn’t show this pattern: the University of Alabama at Huntsville dataset, which is run by Roy Spencer and John Christy (two of the small handful of vocal contrarian scientists who reject or downplay human-caused climate change). That dataset looks totally different in the Antarctic. ”

********************************************************************************

Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha I was right. I did some further digging . Check the website above where the comment came from. THIS MEANS THAT THE WHOLE STUDY IS BOGUS. It is behind a paywall and looks like it will stay behind a paywall. Doesnt matter. It is bogus because the other 5 temperature data sets are bogus. The only temperature dataset that both sides trust is UAH and that is where the global warming battle will be fought from now on.

Alan Tomalty

Santer et al…. will never quit trying until their funding gets cut off. Don’t they realize that they can’t keep this hoax going on much longer? The climate will rear its ugly cold head and it will be soon (all indications 3 years max) be all over. However another big downside(other than increased inflation because of carbon taxes) to this is; we have to keep fending off these bogus studies and claims for another 3 years. How tedious; but sometimes its fun to laugh at the claims.

Louis Hunt

“In this new study, scientists examined seasonal temperature cycles in the troposphere and observed the profound impact humans are having on the atmosphere and our seasons.”

Even if they observed actual changes in the seasonal temperature cycles, how do they conclude that the impact is “profound,” let alone that humans are the cause? Have they observed the changes long enough to rule out the possibility of a natural multiyear cycle? Or are they just letting their biases draw their conclusions for them?

ЯΞ√ΩLUT↑☼N

We’re definitely the cause of seasonal temperature cycles, because we continue to let the seasons change right before our eyes without doing anything about it.

I can’t wait for the summer Climate Change™©® again, but the downsides are that my lawn grows faster and I can’t mow it naked.

ren

In the period of the sun’s minimum there will be extreme temperatures in summer and winter. This is due to the decline in the temperature of the oceans’ surface and the weakening of winds. This will reduce the amount of water vapor in the air that relieves temperature fluctuations. A dry winter in medium latitudes is a cold winter.
That’s how it is now in Australia, where in the winter the minimum temperature has dropped this year.
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ren

Atlantic can not create a hurricane.
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Sara

So the forecast of 5 to 9 (two already formed and disintegrated, not counting that one that went north to my kingdom) is not going to happen this year?
I wonder how that will affect winter snows/storms, and next year’s crop season. Hmmm….

ren

You can see, after the amount of ice in the Beaufort Sea, that winter will attack early in North America.
http://masie_web.apps.nsidc.org/pub/DATASETS/NOAA/G02186/plots/4km/r01_Beaufort_Sea_ts_4km.png

hunter

never say never.
Hurricanes are complex and have multiple factors in their genesis.
I certainly hope there are no strong storms this year, but we are at the very early start of the serious part of the season.

ren

The hurricane did not develop because of the solar minimum and a weak jet stream in the North Atlantic.

StephenP

Was it Ben Santer who rewrote the conclusions of an early IPCC report that turned around the conclusions of the report?

Tom Abbott

Yes, Santer changed the wording from “no evidence of humans causing climate change” to “yes, there is evidence humans are causing climate change”. Quite a change, wouldn’t you say?

You can’t trust anything Santer says about CAGW. He’s a proven liar.

StephenP

So is he responsible for the whole climate change fiasco? Especially as the government officials who have run with the carbon dioxide reduction policy seem to just read the ‘summary for policymakers’.

joelobryan

He added the attribution statement to the Second AR in 1995 SPM after the other authors had already left town (Madrid). Quite unethical.
Santer is a proven, unethical computer hacker. Nothing more.

He lives on rent-seeking climate modelism at DOE LLNL. For his paycheck, he looks for “finger-prints” of CO2 climate change, always finding something new to grasp on to. His CC “fingerprints,” that with the passage of time and deep scrutiny, evaporate like the morning dew in under the sun. He moves ever on to find more ethereal fingerprints.

J.H.

AGW…. The “Hotter, colder wetter, drier, lower, higher, Hypothesis of everything. Also cures baldness and hemorrhoids….. Roll up! Roll up! Get your bottle of Snake Oil fresh…. or slightly old.

Jeff Alberts

Clearly it doesn’t cure baldness. Mann, Schmidt, and Hansen are cases in point.

Jeff,
Perhaps, if virtual baldness is considered, and the use of unicorn droppings, plastered to the mentioned skulls for a month or so – with a result, in their dreams, of heads of hair like the Beatles . . . .

Then, possibly, it might cure baldness. In some dreams . . . .

But haemorrhoids – way above my pay-scale . . .

Auto

hunter

So more ex-post facto arm waving to distract people from their failed past predictions.

michael hart

That’s the magic of predicting absolutely everything that might happen: you get to be right all of the time. And the MSM never cares one jot that the latest story contradicts the previous story.

Rich Davis

Heartbeat is “too strong”, Mother Gaia needs to take her BP meds? And the prescription is…

Stop burning fossil fuels, we need more socialism!