From this article in the South Florida Sun-Sentinel.
The QOTW:
“Whether we’re talking about a change in the number of storms or an increase in the most intense storms, the changes that are likely to come from global warming are not likely to be detectable until 50 years from now,” said Brian Soden, professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science.
“There’s so much natural variability in the system, the typical year-to-year variability in hurricane activity, that the signal really doesn’t emerge from that background variability until the latter half of this century.”
“We used to think 20 years ago that in a warmer climate there would be more hurricanes,” Columbia’ Sobel said. “Then the computer models got better. Most of those started to show fewer hurricanes, not more. No one knew why. Then some of the models started to show increases with warming. So I think we’re back to where we don’t know.”
This is a classic case of people believing their lifetime is the whole world. NOAA has records of hurricanes dating back to the early 19 century. The last time I checked, the use of fossil fuels started around the start of the 19 century, so that gives us over 2 centuries of steadily increasing fossil fuel use, and over a century of hurricane records. Here is what NOAA Says: “Once an estimate for likely missing storms is accounted for the increase in tropical storms in the Atlantic since the late-19th Century is not distinguishable from no change.” https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/historical-atlantic-hurricane-and-tropical-storm-records/
So the question to ask, if it hasnt happened in almost a century and a half of increasing co2 generation, why exactly do they think it will happen in the next few decades?
the world has never seen a unicorn. the day may be coming.
“we’re back to where we don’t know”
Don’t be ridiculous. You never left.
That’s what happens when you do science based on the tea leaves in your cup.
“We used to think 20 years ago that in a warmer climate there would be more hurricanes,” Columbia’ Sobel said. “Then the computer models got better. Most of those started to show fewer hurricanes, not more. No one knew why. Then some of the models started to show increases with warming. So I think we’re back to where we don’t know.”
Perhaps the models were adjusted because there’s no grant money in predicting fewer hurricanes.
I guess if you wait long enough you might see a bigger better higher lower etc thing. Thats why we have records and why they are occasionally broken. Big Deal.