Brief Note by Kip Hansen
Phillip Klotzbach and Michael Bell, who continue the invaluable work of the late William M. Gray, at the Department of Atmospheric Science of Colorado State University have issued their latest updated forecast for the Atlantic Hurricane season of 2018 which begins 1 June. The short-form summary reads:
EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2018
We have decreased our forecast and now believe that 2018 will have approximately average activity. While we still do not anticipate a significant El Niño during the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, most of the North Atlantic has continued to anomalously cool over the past two months. The eastern and central tropical Atlantic is cooler than normal at present. We anticipate a near-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.
(as of 31 May 2018)
By Philip J. Klotzbach and Michael M. Bell
The full 35 page report is available in .pdf format here.
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Addendum: (1 June 2018: 0900 ET) The forecast in numbers.
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Addendum #2: 1 June 2018: 0920 ET
Dr. Judith Curry’s CFAN issues this short form prediction via a tweet:
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Addendum #3: 1 June 2018: 1140 ET Joe Bastardi’s WeatherBell prediction
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Addendum #4: 1 June 2018, 1200 ET
XL Catlin, the Barcelona Supercomputing Center and Colorado State University offer this summary of predictions from various universities and private companies. I have modified it for better viewing, but suggest clicking for a view of the original page:
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A very cold tropical Atlantic.
Thanks for including ours, Please remember this came out May 7 and simply was a lowering of the total ACE and storms a bit from normal to belo normal, However the big problem here is that slow moving storms in the mid latitude ( backyard developments) with that kind of SST are capable of being majors in close. If a storm hits you, it doesnt matter what it was in the MDR, it matters what it is when its hitting you!
Joe Bastardi ==> Is your group going to put out an start of season update?
Does any have a study of predicted versus reality for the last twenty years or so? Whose predictions have come closest.