New ClimateEx world map to scare the bejesus out of people

From the University of Cincinnati and the “warped climate models aren’t reality’ department comes this new map that’s sure to make the future look grim, no matter how you look at it.

New interactive map shows climate change everywhere in world

The University of Cincinnati map identifies places predicted to experience the most or least climate change in next 50 years.

What does Salt Lake City have in common with Tehran?

More than you might think, if you’re a climate scientist.

University of Cincinnati geography professor Tomasz Stepinski created a new interactive map (http://sil.uc.edu/webapps/climateex/) that allows students or researchers to compare the climates of places anywhere in the world. The map draws on five decades of public meteorological data recorded from 50,000 international weather stations around the Earth.

UC’s new ClimateEx map uses predictive models to display where the world could see the most and least climate change over the next 50 years. Green areas could see least change while white and brown areas are predicted to see the most. CREDIT Tomasz Stepinski/ClimateEx

The data is mapped in a 4-square-kilometer grid that gives researchers a visual of what’s happening with temperatures and precipitation from pole to pole.

“The map demonstrates climate change over time but also climate diversity. The concept is powerful and can inspire a lot of research,” Stepinski said.

Stepinski has spent his career studying spatial, societal and temporal patterns in his Space Informatics Lab in the McMicken College of Arts and Sciences. His late map project in 2017 examined the racial diversity of every neighborhood in America. The digital magazine Quartz called the map “insanely detailed.”

Stepinski, a native of Poland, has long been interested in climate and other natural phenomenon that are studied with statistics.

“I’ve lived in Houston, Tucson and Cincinnati. Climatically speaking, they couldn’t be farther apart,” he said.

The University of Cincinnati created a new interactive map that allows people to compare the climates of any city or town to anywhere else in the world. It also shows where in the world climate has changed most and least over time. CREDIT Tomasz Stepinski/ClimateEx

For this project, Stepinski teamed up with Polish researcher Pawel Netzel, who worked in Stepinski’s lab at UC. Using monthly records from the public database WorldClim, they developed a visual way for researchers to study patterns and variability of climate over time from locations virtually anywhere in the world.

The map, called ClimateEx, also allows researchers to study what areas of the globe have seen the most dramatic changes in climate over time. Not surprisingly, this includes portions of the warming arctic. But perhaps surprisingly the map also demonstrates that the tropics around the equator also have seen big changes. Stepinski said this is due not to variations in temperature but in monthly rainfall.

“When people think about climate change, they think about temperature: global warming,” he said. “But climate has many components, including precipitation. People often consider temperature and precipitation separately. But our mathematical model includes both.”

Netzel said the map is especially useful at comparing and contrasting unrelated or geographically distant places since month-to-month weather can vary widely depending on the seasons.

“ClimateEx is mostly an educational tool,” Netzel said. “Using ClimateEx, it is easy to get answers to questions such as where in the world do we have a climate similar to Houston’s? Where can I find a place with a climate as pleasant as Florida’s?”

The map also could help predict which areas will have climates more conducive to extreme weather phenomena such as tornadoes in places where historically there were few, he said.

“ClimateEx enables an easy search for locations where climate change may lead to the occurrence of such extreme phenomena in the future,” he said. “The user simply indicates the location where tornadoes are presently frequent and ClimateEx finds all locations where in 50 years the climate will be conducive to tornadoes.”

Stepinski and Netzel wrote about their map project in an article this month in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

“The climate is always changing,” Stepinski said. “But it usually changes on a geological timescale. It’s not surprising that the climate today is different from the climate a half-million years ago. But now we’re experiencing changes on a scale of 100 years. That’s a completely different thing.”

A warmer climate means there is more energy in the atmosphere. This is leading to increasing frequency and severity of storms and longer droughts according to the U.S. Global Change Research Program, a collaboration of government agencies. That panel’s 2017 report concluded that the planet is warming because of human activity, primarily the burning of fossil fuels, since the Industrial Revolution.

“If you were looking at climate change at a scale of a million years, you wouldn’t worry too much,” Stepinski said. “But if you see dramatic changes on the order of a few decades, it’s a big problem. Personally I’m not happy there are people who seem to disregard this as not much of a problem. It is a problem.”

Netzel said the map isn’t designed specifically for emergency planning. But after seeing what the future might hold, the map could be useful, he said.

“It can support strategic, long-term planning and decision-making on the future development of urbanized space,” he said. “It helps to prepare for emerging threats such as increasing the frequency or appearance of extreme weather phenomena. Knowledge about the possibility of hazards will give city planners time to prepare appropriate response plans.”

But Stepinski said the map is easy enough to use and understand that ordinary people could use it for more personal reasons like planning their next vacation or contemplating a move to a new city.

So what’s the global climate twin of Cincinnati?

Stepinski said it’s Vicenza, Italy.

“You will see that both Cincinnati’s and Vicenza’s climates have a similar progression of weather conditions throughout the year,” he said. “So a person would experience the passing of the seasons in the same way in both places.”

###


From the paper: https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0334.1

ClimateEx uses the data science concept of similarity-based query and opens a significantly different way to explore variety of terrestrial climates as well as their temporal change.ClimateEx queries the WorldClim (http://www.worldclim.org/) global gridded climate data;

30 within each cell of the grid is a set of data describing a local climate. In ClimateEx this local

climate is mathematically represented by a bivariate cyclic time series

Ci={(Ti1, Pi1), . . ., (Ti12 31 ,Pi12)},

where (Tij, Pij 32 ) is a pair of values of average temperature and monthly sum of precipitation at cell i in month j. Crucially, a time series Ci is considered as a single object (climate) and is not decomposed into separate temperature and precipitation components. A holistic measure of dissimilarity, D(Ci1,Ci2), between two climates is provided by dynamic time warping (DTW). This algorithm measures dissimilarity between two time series that may vary (i.e. warp) in timing. It considers every possible warping between the time series (climates) and selects the warping resulting in the smallest dissimilarity.

Great, just what we need; warped future climate predictions.

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110 thoughts on “New ClimateEx world map to scare the bejesus out of people

    • Well the good news for me and my countrymen is that we do not feature on the map provided above. I assume that means there will be no climate catastrophe of any degree in New Zealand.
      Mind you, the rest of the world should not get any ideas in their heads about this. Especially if they think immigrating here is a good idea;)
      Cheers
      Roger
      http://www.rogerfromnewzealand.wordpress.com

      • Roger ==> The special Climax map only applies to places with temperature and precipitation. Since the land of the hobbits is so decidedly different — which explains the hairy feet….is caused by too many sheep????
        Well, you folks got problems of your own, apparently.

      • According to De Freitas et al [2015], New Zealand has had no global warming at all, maintaining an average annual temperature of 12.5°C since 1875 (or somewhere about then…). So there’s been No Climate Change in NZ. for over a century.
        Maybe that’s why we don’t feature: No Climate Change, so no need to map it.

      • There’s been aplenty of precipitation: having been visited three times in as many months this year by the remains of three tropical cyclones. It even snowed in January in the middle of summer. (equivalent to July in the NH summer).
        The place is squeaky clean after such wash, rinse and repeat. It’s been the wettest summer we’ve had in more than a few years.

    • The main feature of this “map” is that taxpayers paid for “it”.
      If you pay a university to produce something they will produce it. If its not logically correct it matters little. What is important is virtue signalling and the possibility of on-going grants from those that pointed the public funds spigot towards the subject.
      Then there is the Soros funded stuff …………

      • Judicial Watch my favorite charity is taking on Soros. You might want to help finance this effort.

    • If Mr. Stepinit – er, um, Stepinski wishes to find out what real climate is like, I invite him to spend a full winter camping out in my front yard, with no heat, no electricity, no running water, and no bathroom facilities. Then we’ll know just how long he holds up in temperatures that dip to -22F at night, wind chills around -32F.
      Oh, wait – my mistake – he’s one of those people who never go outside into the real world. I forgot. My bad.

    • We’re on the map, but not a lot of climate change for Australia. The rest of you can look after yourselves.
      But steer clear of Greenland and Novaya Zemlya.

      • The map and Greenland in it makes it clear that an anomaly of average in a model has little to give if you are planning to open a summer resort.
        No seriously, this is over 50 years in future. Uncertainties (remember climate sensitivity range per IPCC) will be so much bigger than the signal. Good sci-fi, though.

      • flim flam n the whining bloke up nth stefan will be most irate it isnt showing us red hot n blown away as a dust cloud im sure..

  1. Climate forecasters once again turn the scientific method on its head. It must be nice to make outlandish predictions, knowing they will long be forgotten when the alotted time passes.

    • And outlandish claims like climate changes over periods of half a million years. I think he missed 4 ice ages in that period.

    • In science, predictions are made in the early stages, when you derive logically the condition or conditions of falsification to which your hypothesis is hostage. If they fail, your hypothesis will need to go back to the drawing-board. Whatever hypothesis (->theory->law) survives this process is the end product, a.k.a. knowledge.
      In climatology, predictions are the end product.

      Climate forecasters once again turn the scientific method on its head.

      Zigackly.
      Climate [insert disciplinary noun here] has become a branch of ecneics.

      • Projections, not predictions. They don’t trust themselves enough to make predictions.

        • They don’t trust themselves enough to make predictions.

          No, YOU don’t trust yourself enough.
          Wait, sorry, I was just projecting there.
          It won’t happen again*.
          *Not a prediction, just a provisionally promissory precontract.

        • Projections, not predictions. They don’t trust themselves enough to make predictions.

          But to the layperson, that distinction is lost in translation and everything the IPCC (et hoc ggenus omne) projects has the authoritah of a prediction. Then when we (the scientifically-literate Three Percenters) draw their attention to Rule One of Science Club—”if your prediction is wrong, your hypothesis is wrong”—THEN suddenly they’re all like, “…In fact there are no predictions by IPCC at all. And there never have been. The IPCC instead proffers “what if” projections of future climate that correspond to certain emissions scenarios. There are a number of assumptions that go into these emissions scenarios. They are intended to cover a range of possible self consistent “story lines” that then provide decision makers with information about which paths might be more desirable. But they do not consider many things like the recovery of the ozone layer, for instance, or observed trends in forcing agents. There is no estimate, even probabilistically, as to the likelihood of any emissions scenario and no best guess….” yadda yadda yadda.
          So it’s win-win for them, lose-lose for science.

      • Curious:
        From the article: “It can support strategic, long-term planning and decision-making on the future development of urbanized space…”
        Only if it contains a lick of sense. There is “projection” in there in spades. You are right in that what they seem to trust is their analytical software. The outputs? Who cares. It is only an application of a tool they designed. It has many other uses, we can presume/project.

  2. It’s not clear whether this map is based upon actual observational data or predictions from computer models.

      • No, but the article does not say what data the map was created from. The article mentions:
        “five decades of public meteorological data recorded from 50,000 international weather stations around the Earth.”
        It does not say what “predictive models” were used to generate the future climates.
        For historical sense it might be useful, but its value as a predictive tool is questionable.

      • He says it’s to be used to plan your next vacation…..obviously, it’s not based on anything in the real world

      • Time machines would be far more accurate than the CO2 based models currently being flaunted.
        The CO2 horsesh*t has to stop.

      • Even for historical data, it’s mostly made up, since the vast majority of the 4km grids used do not have one of those 50K sensors in them.

      • See my post at the bottom, 50K sensors gives them less than 1 sensor for every 61 blocks on their grid.

    • rocket ==> They used, apparently, a model of their own based solely on temperature and rainfall. and then swirled it around in a snow globe of Bayesian probabilities.

      • Thanks Kip, I was expecting as much, but was hoping for more.
        If they have useful historical data why not depict how the local climates have actually changed?

  3. Woo-hoo! I get more rain and too far above sea-level to be drowned… I am good for climate change. Going to sit out in my rocking chair with a beer and some popcorn and watch it happen!

  4. Too bad IPCC’s 2013 AR5 Report admits no increaseing trends of severe weather incidence nor frequency of the following weather phenomenon for the past 50~100 years: hurricanes, typhoons, cyclones, drought, floods, tornadoes, tropical storms, subtropical storms and hail…
    Moreover, within the next 4~5 years, both the Pacific and Atlantic will be in their respective 30-yr cool cycles, and global temp trends ALWAYS fall when this phenomenon occurs.
    Additionally, the sun is already in the early stages of a 50~75 year Grand Solar Minimum event, which many scientists believe will lead to even more global cooling.
    In about 5 years from now, this silly CAGW sc@m will be laughed at as CAGW’s Warming Projections exceed reality by more than 3 standard deviations for almost 30 years.
    Silly papers like this, and the Nutty Professors who wrote them, will soon become laughingstocks.
    It’s time to end the madness..

  5. That’s interesting: I have a map showing the places in the world which will be most and least affected by space aliens. Roswell is definitely going to be; in fact it’s a “hot spot”, but Tucson is pretty much in the clear.

  6. Just imagine if this “new” technology was available 1000 years ago…
    ….would people avoid those areas and not live there?
    …and that’s just how unimportant this science really is

  7. The lead researcher is an Informatics and Big Data analyst.
    Seems this foray into ClimateScience! is nothing more than a geography prof. finding a way to hop onto the Global Warming gravy train.
    But his research has a huge problem.
    First, we recognize that the modern university is Politically Correct to a pathological extent, and conformity is strictly enforced.
    So what is the problem?
    The map uses a pleasant green for unchanging regions. But then he chose Brown to represent areas of high change. That’s Raysis!
    Then worse, he chose White for the areas of maximum change. That is clearly White Supremacist! That is Double Raysis.
    Worst of all, he is an (ugh!) man. He is part of the Patriarchy, deliberately using the future climate to oppress women and POC (People Of Color).
    {Sorry, everybody. I could not resist. This project just does not deserve any better.}

    • ‘Then worse, he chose White for the areas of maximum change. That is clearly White Supremacist! That is Double Raysis.’
      No, no, no – you misunderstand – white=damage. See, ‘white’ is a problem that needs fixing – just ask Obama. That’s why he was so concerned with making the country a ‘lot browner’.

      • You are correct, of course. But I fear you oversimplify. The problem is indeed caused, in part, by White Privilege and White Supremacy. But the problem goes much deeper than that.
        Other causes are Capitalism and Institutional Raycisim, along with researchers who may be raysis, sexist, homophobic, cisphobic, transphobic, isophobic, ketophobic (fear of ketones), halophobic (fear of halogens), islamophobic, thermophobic, or just plain deplorable.
        Indeed, the one study which demonstrated the Right way to go about these things was featured right here at WUWT a while back.
        How could we ever forget Feminist Glaciology!
        (It was *not* satire)

      • Oh, I agree – EVERY aspect of our society is under assault.
        One of the tenants of Marxism, by the way – destroy everything that came before, so you can replace it with your own.
        Unfortunately, most of what’s going on right now is pure destruction – systems, beliefs, ideology – they want to unscrew our world at it’s foundation – they are literally even talking about replacing us with a genetically engineered species more compatible with their beliefs.
        Destroy first – don’t worry about what comes later – that’s not the problem for those tasked with getting rid of what exists right now.

  8. A warmer climate means there is more energy in the atmosphere. This is leading to increasing frequency and severity of storms and longer droughts according to the U.S. Global Change Research Program, a collaboration of government agencies. That panel’s 2017 report concluded that the planet is warming because of human activity, primarily the burning of fossil fuels, since the Industrial Revolution.
    They say which is 100% wrong.

    • I have always been fascinated by claims that the atmosphere ‘containing more energy” (increase in enthalpy) means that storms will be ‘stronger’. It is clear they have no idea what role the enthalpy of a system plays in creating wind and storms. There are very powerful storms on other planets that are 100 C below our temperatures. What makes storms strong is the temperature gradient. It the whole system is increased in temperature, there is no increase in the gradient and no change in the storm energy. Same for cooling the system.
      As the Arctic is likely to warm far more than the equator (which will not warm at all because of thunderstorms) the gradient from mid-earth to pole will decrease. The only change on can predict based on such warming (if it occurs) is that there will be less snow in places that now get it. It will fall as rain instead.
      As the Arctic sea ice is a cap on energy loss from the ocean, melting it may prove as large a control on temperature rise as powerful as the thunderstorms over water at the equator. In that case, the prophecies of doom are doomed.
      Salvatore: you really should have said that the storms will contain more energy, not that they will be more powerful. Energy is not storm power, storm power is created by the gradient. Look at Neptune Extremely cold, far more powerful storms.

  9. stop whining – at least you have climate, poor New Zealand has been wipe off the map – hows that for being affected by climate change????

    • Nah, we are still here.
      Its all part of our Privacy Act although nobody knows where we are anyway so there is no point in being on the map in the first place.
      Sorry have to rip down to Hobbiton

  10. And wow, a new progressive meme — climate diversity. Not sure what the heck that means, but it must be good….

  11. 1) Assemble the expected drivel
    2) Build a model based on untested assumptions
    3) Run the model until it produces one or more horror stories
    4) Publish
    ….
    ooops, I forgot the part about “call yourself a climate scientist” even though you have a background in cartography

    • A climate scientist is anyone who is proclaimed a climate scientist by those who already call themselves climate scientists.

  12. They take present data: “The map draws on five decades of public meteorological data recorded from 50,000 international weather stations around the Earth.
    And then Mr. Pawel Netzel says, “ClimateEx finds all locations where in 50 years the climate will be conducive to tornadoes.
    And how does Mr. Netzel find the locations and behaviors of future climate? Does ClimateEx deploy a climate model to reveal those future climates? That would be a confidence-builder.
    And does Mr. Netzel include any measure of the uncertainty in the historical data? All that uncertainty conveniently wished away by consensus scientists?
    A map that deploys 50 years of data is very nice. Ignoring what it cannot tell you is not.

  13. I like the way they use a Mercator projection for their map. That way it can really stretch the Arctic and make it look worse than they expected. Too bad that Antarctica vanishes completely in 50 years, though. I guess all those penguins will have to move to the enlarged Arctic. ;->

    • I noticed that too. It would be a lot less scary if it were an equal-area projection. Mostly green , with a lot less yellow and just a few bits of brown.

  14. The climate is always changing,” Stepinski said. “But it usually changes on a geological timescale. It’s not surprising that the climate today is different from the climate a half-million years ago. But now we’re experiencing changes on a scale of 100 years. That’s a completely different thing.”

    With this one statement he’s shown himself to be as ignorant as Bill Nye if not worse (which is hard to do). Just looking back to the little ice age or even the dust bowl should have been enough information to show that climate can fluctuate on short term time scales of 50 years or less.

  15. So all deserts will be unaffected by climate change. Only moist climates and the poles will be affected, and probably projected to become drier. So more energy in the atmosphere with more water vapor will lead to drier climate with more tornadoes…Chicken Little Approved!


  16. So what’s the global climate twin of Cincinnati?
    Stepinski said it’s Vicenza, Italy.

    I spent a winter in Vincenza*. It’s cold and wet. While Cleveland can also be cold and wet in the winter, Cleveland, elevation 200 meters, gets loads of Lake Effect snowfall most winters. That is unlikely to change as all it takes is cold, northern winds from Canada blowing across the unfrozen warm Lake Erie fresh water.
    Vincenza, elevation 39 meters, is 60 km from the Adriatic, a salt water body and very much less snow fall
    Cleveland snow fall:
    On average, since 1950,at the Cleveland airport about 60 inches of snow falls during the winter, counting late fall and early spring snows in the totals.
    Cleveland set a record for snow with 117.9 inches during the winter of 2004-2005.
    There were just 32.8 inches during the winter of 2015-16.
    Vinceza, Italy snow falls are so sparse, the climate/weather sites do not even list it, just the precipitation that is most if not all rain. It is wet and cold most of the winter. Very different from Clevelnds cold spells and deep snows a few times every year.
    * NATO’s 5 ATAF HQ is there, and where the air tasking orders for the Kosovo NATO air campaign in was planned and sent out daily in 1999.

  17. Where I live, our taxpayer-funded forecaster Environment Canada is predicting a low of 0 C on Saturday night. Accuweather’s forecast for Saturday’s low is -6 C. That’s a whole CENTURY’s difference of near worst-case climate change, and it’s only 3 days away!
    I can barely imagine how useful the University of Cincinnati’s application will be. Well, aside from generating twaddle and angst which I presume to be its primary purpose.

  18. Maybe we should make our own colorful map (remember, that’s how Mikey Mann learned global warming was serious—colored graphs and maps) and some junk science to counteract this. If the goal is to just make pretty pictures, I’m sure skeptics can do equally artistic mapping and equally semi-believable reasons to buy into the maps. We could just tell the truth and make a pretty map and say no one knows but this so colorful and nice, you should feel really good about yourself. Science has deteriorated to psychotic levels.

  19. “But now we’re experiencing changes on a scale of 100 years. That’s a completely different thing.”
    Remember how the globe cooled half a degree in 3 decades 45 years ago? No? Its reported in the NOAA quarterly Oct 1974.

  20. Wow now that I know that the South pole is that big, I’m no longer worried about climate change XD
    What a joke. Map is aweful. I won’t comment on the data+model they cherry-picked, I know better ways to waste entropy, such as watching porn.

  21. I live in Saskatchewan in Western Canada. There are definitely more climatic categories than this chucklehead has experienced. Possibly Antarctica is slightly different still!.
    Brown Change gonna fall!

  22. Let’s give geographers one day of climate scare glory because they count too. Now move along and get back to science process.

    • The basic idda of a world weather map has some merit, but only if real data is used..
      No chrystal ball gazing needed.
      Problem as always is that ” projections” ie guesses, get picked up by
      the media & then turned into facts
      Mje

  23. Followed link to map. Looked at legend. Color scale goes from small to large climate change . . . whatever the heck that means. It’s not even WEATHER related.
    We have no data for Equatorial Africa. None. The change depicted from -6000 to 2000 is completely made up. We don’t have much more for South America.
    Ipso facto, this map is an absurd fabrication. All involved parties should be deeply embarrassed. If Professor Stepinski doesn’t have tenure, he should have high anxiety.

  24. I was going to ask what the units of “climate change” were on the first graph, but upon magnification I now see there are none. Just some colors going from a “small change” to “large changes” And changes in what? Temperature? Rainfall?
    Whatever it is, it’s not science as we know it, Captain.

    • When you get your climate funding, and write your climate article, you may have some money left over from the budget. That is climate change. As you know, there is very little of it around.

  25. “I’ve lived in Houston, Tucson and Cincinnati. Climatically speaking, they couldn’t be farther apart,” he said.

    lol I guess he’s never been to Antarctica or even seen a desert in the tropics then. Clearly can’t have watched much TV either.

  26. “five decades of public meteorological data recorded from 50,000 international weather stations around the Earth.”
    Not good enough, a 100 years or more would give us a glimpse of climate changing.

  27. WTF is “climate diversity”???

    “The map demonstrates climate change over time but also climate diversity.>/blockquote>
    If climate change is bad, how can “climate diversity” be good? Or is this the only type of diversity that’s bad according to greentards?

  28. Well the good news is Australia is GREEN. Except for the Top End where people and Industry ain’t.

  29. I’ll just file this with those predictions that The Great Goracle made a few decades back…

  30. “New interactive map shows climate change everywhere in world
    The University of Cincinnati map identifies places predicted to experience the most or least climate change in next 50 years.” — this is highly mis-information campaign. The natural variability plays crucial role in agriculture, water resources, etc.
    Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy

  31. 50K sensors
    The world is mapped into 4Km grids.
    The vast, vast majority of grids don’t have sensors in them. So any data from those grids will be just made up.

    • The radius of the earth at the equator is 3963 km.
      Which works out to a surface area of a bit over 49,000,000 km squared.
      Divide that by 4km or 16km squared per grid.
      Around 3,060,000 total grids.
      Divide that by 50K sensors and you get one sensor for every 61 grids.
      And that’s assuming there are no grids with more than one sensor.

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