From Rutgers University and the “Nor’easter’s weren’t as bad before global warming” department comes this “story I’ve been telling for a couple of years now…”. See the commentary after this article.
Warm Arctic means colder, snowier winters in northeastern US, study says
Rutgers scholar says warming Arctic’s connection to US weather is ‘no coincidence’
Scientists from Rutgers University-New Brunswick and Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) have linked the frequency of extreme winter weather in the United States to Arctic temperatures.
Their research was published today in Nature Communications.
“Basically, this confirms the story I’ve been telling for a couple of years now,” said study co-author Jennifer Francis, research professor of marine and coastal sciences in Rutgers’ School of Environmental and Biological Sciences. “Warm temperatures in the Arctic cause the jet stream to take these wild swings, and when it swings farther south, that causes cold air to reach farther south. These swings tend to hang around for awhile, so the weather we have in the eastern United States, whether it’s cold or warm, tends to stay with us longer.”
The research is timely given the extreme winter of 2017-2018, including record warm Arctic and low sea ice, record-breaking polar vortex disruption, record-breaking cold and disruptive snowfalls in the United States and Europe, severe “bomb cyclones” and costly nor’easters, said Judah Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting at AER and lead author of the study.
In their study, Cohen, Francis and AER’s Karl Pfeiffer found that severe winter weather is two to four times more likely in the eastern United States when the Arctic is abnormally warm than when the Arctic is abnormally cold. Their findings also show that winters are colder in the northern latitudes of Europe and Asia when the Arctic is warm.
Paradoxically, the study shows that severe winter weather in the western United States is more likely when the Arctic is colder than normal.
The researchers found that when Arctic warming occurred near the surface, the connection to severe winter weather was weak. When the warming extended into the stratosphere, however, disruptions of the stratospheric polar vortex were likely. These disruptions usually cause severe winter weather in mid- to late winter and affect large metropolitan centers of the northeastern United States.
“Five of the past six winters have brought persistent cold to the eastern U.S. and warm, dry conditions to the West, while the Arctic has been off-the-charts warm,” Francis said. “Our study suggests that this is no coincidence. Exactly how much the Arctic contributed to the severity or persistence of the pattern is still hard to pin down, but it’s becoming very difficult to believe they are unrelated.”
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Of course, Nor’easters are nothing new. Even before climate numptys like Cohen and Francis tried to carbon-spin the reason for them, they were bad. For example:
Ash Wednesday 1962: The Most Extreme Nor’easter on Record to Hit the Mid-Atlantic Coast
Ash Wednesday is remembered by some on the East Coast as more than a Christian holy day. In 1962, it brought the most extreme nor’easter on record to the mid-Atlantic states.
The March 1962 Ash Wednesday Storm pounded the mid-Atlantic coast for nearly three days, battering the shoreline, sweeping beach homes, hotels and boardwalks into the ocean, while bringing near-blizzard conditions to inland areas.
“The Ash Wednesday Storm … was probably the largest East Coast winter storm in terms of land loss and number of homes damaged or destroyed,” the U.S. Geological Survey says.
The nor’easter reached the mid-Atlantic coast on Tuesday, March 6, 1962, and continued into Thursday, March 8, with huge waves and ferocious winds up to 60 mph. Protective dunes and sea walls crumbled because they could not withstand this storm’s fury, and that left the coastline unprotected.
High-pressure systems have a clockwise circulation, while low-pressure systems have a counter-clockwise circulation, so this setup allowed for a long path of the air over the ocean before reaching the coast, better known as the fetch. As a result of this disastrous setup, water and high waves were driven toward the shoreline.
more here: https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/march-1962-ash-wednesday-storm-noreaster-mid-atlantic
TWC’s Stu Ostro seems concerned that the 1-2-3 effect might be a sign….
1-2-3 pic.twitter.com/wvbAUTUSEq
— Stu Ostro (@StuOstro) March 13, 2018
Joe Bastardi gets the last word:
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/972603421588180992
It’s the opposite where colder US temperature result in warmer Arctic temperatures. There’s a real simple explanation for this which is Conservation of Energy, There’s only so many Joules to go around. It’s odd that the left doesn’t get this as zero sum economics is at the core of their beliefs, where for one to benefit, another must suffer.
negative sum economics might be a better description.
co2 –
I agree. I’m perfectly willing to accept the general explanation for cold NH winters as due to warmer than normal arctic conditions. What I don’t see any proof of, though, is that this is indicative of warming in general. So the joules have moved from the south to the arctic? So what? The fact that we have a general explanation of this is itself evidence that this falls within the range of what we consider normal.
Thus, we can conclude there’s no reason to worry when confronted by cries of “highest Arctic temps evah!” Right? It’s just our heat. Moved north for the winter. Kinda like the bizarro-world version of our New Englanders who vacation in Florida for the winter.
rip
Warmer. Warrmerr. Warrrmerr. Colder! Colder!! Warrrrmerrrr ….
Max, you remind me of my wife and the thermostat.
By the way, good to have you here again. 🙂
Your wife must be hot! Oh no, wait … cold! Oh no, wait …
Hot tongue and cold shoulder??? I’ve had that ‘for supper’ once or twice…
This weather is the result of the extremely negative AO…..which flushes air from high latitudes in the WInter-where there isn’t much sunshine/daylight to warm air masses and thus its dang cold……..towards the mid latitudes where that air mass is anomalously cold vs that regions average.
Here is a good explanation for how that works:
https://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/nao
Here is the most recent graph of our extremely -AO, and the -NAO along with the model forecast for the next 2 weeks:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif
Also having a -NAO(which often works in tandem with the -AO) gives those Arctic origin air masses an additional push south in the East, along with opportunities for the upper level troughing to deepen quickly in the Northeast.
This often results in a strong temperature contrast too between the extreme cold coming from the north and the sometimes much warmer air over the ocean or just east of the upper level trough line. A strong baroclinic thermal contrast is the recipe for explosive development for storms.
Note that we don’t have “bombs” in the Summer or warm months because there isn’t enough cold to produce the temperature contrast needed to supply the energy.
I found another study from 14 years ago, with one of its authors, Judah Cohen also the same as in this study that contradicts statements from this study from that person:
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI3530.1
“The NAO and AO were in a positive trend for much of the 1970s and 1980s with historic highs in the early 1990s, and it has been suggested that they contributed significantly to the global warming signal. The trends in standard indices of the AO, NAO, and NH average surface temperature for December–February, 1950–2004, and the associated patterns in surface temperature anomalies are examined.”
“While the NAO and AO may contribute to hemispheric and regional warming for multiyear periods, these differences suggest that the large-scale features of the global warming trend over the last 30 years are unrelated to the AO and NAO.”
Maybe they learned a few things since then………………or, MUCH MUCH more likely(based on the actual data) is that this is a natural, decadel cycle that flipped from having frequent +AO/NAO Winters until the early 1990’s to having increasingly frequent -AO/NAO Winters since then.
While I understand the “theory” of Arctic amplification which can’t be completely discarded here, the reason for what has been happening is completely explained by a natural cycle(s) which actually makes MUCH more sense looking at the data going back the last 70 years.
Note the extremely negative AO values in the 1950’s and 1960’s……..during modest global cooling(causing conditions even MORE favorable for this exact same kind of weather being blamed on climate change/the warm Arctic):
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/month_ao_index.shtml
The 1960’s storms noted by Anthony and Joe B are good examples.
However, objectivity often lacks, when scientists and others start out looking for the human caused warming/climate change fingerprint and use the data to support that vs letting the historic data tell the story.
Good call, Mike. Folks really should watch the freebies on Weatherbell. Last weekend’s summary makes what you said crystal clear.
Ash Wednesday 1962: The Most Extreme Nor’easter on Record to Hit the Mid-Atlantic Coast
Anthony, I remember that storm well, living just a few miles South of Philadelphia and commuting to Phila in huge snow accumulation to take some exams since I graduated from college in 1962. You are correct.
That storm was much worse for the NJ coast than the recent Northeast storm.
As I recall Long Beach Island off the NJ coast was breached from that Northeaster and split into several islands with numerous homes and boats destroyed. Only portions of the island were very mildly flooded this year so the severity of the storms has been significantly less for New Jersey. My son lives on the island and his street had no flooding.
Several years ago Francis co authored a paper on global Vortex (covered by WUWT) making claims that these would be much more common with negative consequences. I exchanged several e mails with her asking some tough questions. All her replies were superficial indicating no depth but obvious she was in the tank for global warming without substance..
Correction “polar vortex”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/02/21/finally-a-real-scientific-consensus-everyone-agrees-that-the-recent-displaced-polar-vortex-wasnt-caused-by-global-warming/
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2012/03/50_years_later_nj_remembers_wh.html
Paul Homewood put up a map and caption for Iceland to Rome from H. H. Lamb.
Date is 1 March 1785. Weather was similar to this month’s weather. Homewood
About the USA, I found this:
“The weather of 1785: A case study”
LINK
And this LINK HERE – search for 1785 –
On Feb 13, 1785 there was “Flaming Ocean” – – I’ve no idea.
Severe European winters gets a hit; as does
Great winters in the Northern Hemisphere, followed by floods
Thanks Joe for the comment on 3 in 6 days. Living memory is all that seems to count to most climate scientists, and to all activists.
Not to nit-pick, but 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30 is seven days in my arithmetic (unless the first and the last are not counted fully in).
Well, it was Bastardi’s statement.
Seems like this all comes down to what you observe vs. what confirmation bias will allow you to accept.
In the 1970’s they blamed global cooling for the storms and the Arctic Vortex.
Any excuse will do for them now.
If warm weather in the Arctic causes cold winters in the Eastern US then well documented cold weather in the past suggests that the Arctic was also warmer in the past, thus confirming a none event all round. I will sleep better tonight.
Well, let’s be clear. The 4 Laurentian Ice shields over 500K yrs across the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes didn’t get there from a cold dry atmosphere.
Those ice shields came from copious amounts of water pulled off the warmer surrounding oceans.
Warm winters are due to climate change. Unless they turn out to be cold. And then cold winters are due to climate change. Got it.
correlation is not causation …
OT: Steve Hawkings died today. (He was a believer in AGW.)
He was a great theoretical mathematician of seventies who proved you can excel from a wheelchair. I try to think his AGW speak as just what was expected of him to say on something he wasn’t very interested in.
by the way, it is Stephen Hawking, of course
well RIP Stephen. He wasn’t a great mind, but he was tireless in his exploration of theory.
. ‘He wasn’t a great mind’
Tells you all you need to know about Leo Smith
Makes sense to me. A warmer Arctic/less ice coverage allows more heat to escape to space from the ocean which precipitates colder air masses descending south toward New England during the winter. Bob Tisdale has additionally pointed to El Ninos and La Ninas influencing New England weather.
This is desperation on the part of these no-matter-what global warmers. l look at that 1962 storm geometry and see the jet passing through Montana, the Dakota’s, Minnesota, Wisconsin… I was living in Winnipeg to the north of it and Marches there can be the snowiest part of the winter with severe blizzard conditions. Are these researchers telling us that normally the jet stream is far north of Winnipeg in winter. Search out temperature lows all the way south on the prairies down through the US historically.
nebraska_temperature.htm
How does 148 days a year avg below freezing.
After reading here about the US Climate Reporting Network (USCRN) and its high-quality, well-sited membership of top of the line weather stations, I thought I’d go grab the data and have a look.
There are 254 station total, but only 140 of them are used for climate reporting. There’s two in Hawaii, twelve in Alaska, and one way over in Yakutsk (that shows a serious cooling trend). The rest are spread very nicely across the US. The longest records are just over 18 years, so there’s not enough data to get a 30-year baseline, but you can get a pretty good idea of what the temps are up to even without one. It’s been said that the US represents only 3% of the Earth’s land area, but it’s not an insignificant sample. With the Yakutsk, Alaska, and Hawaii stations, and the rest of the stations in the contiguous US, the network covers a decent stretch of land.
I’ve used the TMAX daily temperatures, because TAVG doesn’t tell me anything interesting about the temperature. I’ve plotted both the monthly average for each month in the years, and the highest monthly average in each year, with some interesting results. The large majority of the stations show warming, both in the monthly average TMAX reading and the annual high monthly TMAX average. Still, 20 of the records show definite cooling or are stable at their current temps.
I’m working on getting the plots of each station’s data up on my web site in the easiest, most accessible form I can think of. I’ll let the site know when I’ve got something together.
How does your work compare with Tony Heller’s?
Since you’re doing this analysis, let me suggest that you compute the root-mean-square of TMAX as well. The temperature flutuates from year to year with some kind of probability distrbution and the RMS will give you an error statistic that you can plot along with TMAX. If the distribution were a Gaussian, not necessarily true, then the RMS would be one standard deviation. You should then plot TMAX and TMAX +- RMS as the limits of an error bar.
It’s not standard practice in climate data analysis, but it shows you the long term range of the mean and whether a few degees shift here and there is really meaningful. It should be included in all the weather data plots, but it never is. Easier to scare the rubes that way. The climate “scientists” probably don’t understand this either.
…I Cohen, Francis and AER’s Karl Pfeiffer found that severe winter weather is two to four times more likely in the eastern United States when the Arctic is abnormally warm than when the Arctic is abnormally cold. Their findings also show that winters are colder in the northern latitudes of Europe and Asia when the Arctic is warm.
Paradoxically, the study shows that severe winter weather in the western United States is more likely when the Arctic is colder than normal….</i
I think I’m beginning to understand modern Climate Theory. Abnormal things happen when Abnormal things are happening. Which is all the time. Please send more money….
Maybe global is the cause of the Laurentide ice sheet?
Our metoffice FMI here in Finland is pulling the same trick. Cold and snowy winter that does not seem to end is now caused by climate change, and we can expect more of the same in the future. Ten years ago they were expecting the exact opposite (rolls eyes).
Of course they do. That kind of behaviour (x confirms y and ~x confirms y) is the very typical appearance of the confirmation bias. To their loss, neither warm or cold or snowy winters are sign of global warming. They’re just weather… mundane. Only trends are possibly related to global warming, but attribution to single events is somewhat dubious. At the current pace, they’ll soon come up with a conclusion that a series of extremely moderate weather is a sign of global warming (hiding some natural cooling variation).
‘head you lose , tails I win ‘ standard practice in climate ‘science ‘ has why when challenged they cannot say what would ‘disprove ‘ the theory .
And of course you can’t question that because the “science is settled”. This debate is utterly broken. Or more accurately, there never was any debate in the first place. Everyone is told that they should blindly believe the basic “facts”: the climate is warming, that is a bad thing, humans are mostly responsible, we can do something about it, and that the best way to do something about it is to invest in renewables and be “sustainable” (whatever that means). And everyone believes these things, not because they have studied the matter, but because they are told that they should believe them. And if you DARE question ANY of these TRUTHS™, you are a DENIER, worse than Hitler, the Eternal enemy of Mother Nature and Mankind, the Bringer of darkness, the Killer of kittens… etc.
The polar vortex in the lower stratosphere is in the phase of division into two vortices. This is indicated by the areas with the least amount of ozone.
?oh=3ff4abbe21feadc4aeac0f2dc14a9f44&oe=5B486BAA
Magnetic field in the Arctic regions.
http://www.geomag.nrcan.gc.ca/images/field/fnor.gif
Another warm winter for Alaskans: The average winter temperature in Alaska was 12.9 degrees F, 9.3 degrees above average. Much-above-average temperatures spanned the state, with record warmth along the North Slope. Barrow and St. Paul were record warm for the 3-month period.
this is from NOAA
some shoke about this
And, today, I heard about hawking’s death, and I thought hawking would never die RIP.
Sudden jump in temperature in the stratosphere. Previously, such a strong jump occurred in 2009, during the previous solar minimum.
http://images.tinypic.pl/i/00961/asdgt2qm615q.png
Today very cold air moves over the Great Lakes.
http://files.tinypic.pl/i/00961/pxcig510h4el.png
Ice extent in the Arctic is still growing.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2018.png
Click.
TSI monthly average from 2003.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/graph/pmod/from:2003
Very low magnetic activity of the Sun. Very high levels of galactic radiation in high latitudes.
http://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/webform/monitor.gif
Click.