Goremongering and Mannhandling the reality of winter weather ‘bombs’

This happened a couple of days ago, where Gore quotes failed climate science promoter (note Dr. Mann that I didn’t say carnival barker as is your favorite slur) and while many rushed to cover it right away, because of the sheer ridiculousness of it,  I wanted to wait and see what the fallout was. There’s plenty.

Al gore Tweeted this:

 

You can read Mann’s reasoning here.

But those darn climate deniers doubters see right through the excrement.

One of my Facebook friends (who is a cop, trained to detect people lying) said this in a Facebook post:

“Snake oil salesman quotes Penn data molester” should be the headline.”

Then there’s this observation by Marc Morano of ClimateDepot.com:

Gore’s Oscar-winning documentary An Inconvenient Truth did not warn of record cold and increasing snowfalls as a consequence of man-made global warming. And as recently as 2009, Gore was hyping the lack of snow as evidence for man-made global warming. Source: “Gore Reports Snow and Ice Across the World Vanishing Quickly.”

And who can forget this famous quote from Dr. David Viner, which was recently disappeared from the newspaper online archive, but I saved a copy here.

 

Morano further reports:

But as the snow piled up, the climate change claims were adjusted and cold and snow were added to the list of things caused by “global warming.” See: Warmists Wheel Out “Record Cold Due To Global Warming” Argument Again

Predictions of less snow and less severe winters were hammered into the public by global warming scientists. But once that predictions failed to come true, the opposite of what they predicted instead became—what they expected. 

If “climate change” is causing record cold and snow, then it would stand to reason that Gore is suggesting that if the U.S. had ratified the UN’s Kyoto Protocol treaty on “global warming” back in the 1990’s — the winter of 2018 would have been warmer?

Reality Check: But scientists are not buying the claims of Gore and Mann and others linking the record cold and snow to “global warming.”

‘Insanity…It’s Witchcraft’ – Meteorologist Joe Bastardi on claims that cold & snow caused by ‘global warming’ – WeatherBell Meteorologist Joe Bastardi on January 4, 2018: “This is flat out insanity and deception now To tell the public that events that have occurred countless times before with no climate change attribution, is now just that, is not science, its witchcraft. NO PROOF AT ALL. Its climate ambulance chasing, nothing more.”

Bastardi added: “This has happened countless times before and it wasn’t global warming then and is not now. Solid use of past patterns predicted major early cold from OCTOBER! I have tweeted that dozens of times showing the analog years I used, No co2 then.”

Climatologist Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. also weighed in, explaining:

“For those who claim USA/Canada nor’easter is stronger because of ‘global warming’, they apparently do not realize that it’s so strong because of especially strong horizontal temperature gradient in troposphere. It ‘bombed’ because of usually cold air!”

Even Dr. Kenneth Trenberth panned the Gore/Mann stupidity alliance:

Global Warming Is Not Causing Harsh Winter Weather – Daily Caller – Excerpts:

Kevin Trenberth, a scientist with the National Center for Atmospheric Research, said “winter storms are a manifestation of winter, not climate change.”

“Such claims make no sense and are inconsistent with observations and the best science,” University of Washington climatologist Cliff Mass said of claims made by Mann and others. “The frequency of cold waves have decreased during the past fifty years, not increased. That alone shows that such claims are baseless.” “And on a personal note, it is very disappointing that members of my profession are making such obviously bogus claims,” Mass said. “It hurts the science, it hurts the credibility of climate scientists, and weakens our ability to be taken seriously by society.” …

Every winter seems to reignite the global warming debate. Things got intense in 2014 when former White House science czar John Holdren put out a video where he claimed that year’s “polar vortex” was actually a sign of global warming. Holdren’s video was largely based on research by Rutgers University scientist Jennifer Francis, which claims that warming in the Arctic is making the jet stream more wobbly, making cold snaps and nor’easter storms more frequent. Holdren later admitted that his video was based on his “personal opinion” of the science, but the argument is still used every time cold Arctic air pours down through the lower 48 states.

Mann wrote that global warming may be “causing the jet stream to meander in a particular pattern” that causes cold spells in the eastern U.S. Mann suggested this pattern was being driven by “the dramatic loss of sea ice in the Arctic.” Yet, scientists aren’t sold on this theory. Mass noted how theoretical research shows the opposite happening, future warming would drive less undulation in the jet stream and heat up the area responsible for cold spells in the U.S. “Research documented in peer-reviewed journals has demonstrated that there is no evidence for their claims of increasing frequency of ‘lazy jet streams’ and blocking over time,” Mass said. “If you substantially warm the source region of cold air, cold waves will decline,” Mass said. A 2014 study led by Colorado State University climate scientist Elizabeth Barnes found no evidence to back up the theory that a lazy or wobbling jet stream was becoming more frequent. “There is much disagreement on whether we have already witnessed substantial impacts,” Barnes wrote in a Thursday blog post for the Climate Variability and Predictability program. …

Climatologist Judith Curry said the “bomb cyclone” currently hammering North America is nothing new. Those extra-tropical storms have undergone “bombogenesis,” or rapid intensification. “The term ‘bomb’ for such storms was coined almost 40 years ago by MIT’s Fred Sanders,” Curry told TheDCNF, “who spent much of his career studying such storms back when global warming most definitely was not a factor.” …

Curry said that while “warmer oceans can cause greater snowfall,” storm intensity is also influenced ” by the patterns of sea surface temperature not so much the average temperatures.” But Mann’s arguments are more based on expectations of what could happen with more warming, and have little to do with current trends in “bomb cyclones.” Weather.us meteorologist Ryan Maue, an expert on cyclones, pointed out there are between 50 and 60 “bomb cyclones” every year in the Northern Hemisphere, many of which we don’t notice because they are too far out at sea. But Maue’s research on “bomb cyclones” also don’t show any discernible trends from 1979 to 2010.

And Dr. Roy Spencer notes that this ‘bomb’ phenomena is nothing new:

For those wondering, the meteorological term “bomb” was coined by Fred Sanders in 1980 in a Monthly Weather Review article, it refers to “an extratropical surface cyclone with a central pressure that falls on the average at least 1 millibar per hour for 24 hours”.

It’s also not uncommon, as Dr. Ryan Maue points out:

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/948623954591313920

Dr. Roy Spencer adds this – “My imagined conversation with Al Gore:

MR. GORE: This cold wave and snowstorm are just what global warming predicted!

ME: And what if the weather had been unusually warm and snow-free?

MR. GORE: That would also be consistent with global warming theory.

ME: So warm winters, cold winters, snowy winters, and no-snow winters are all predictions of global warming?

MR. GORE: Yes, that is correct.

ME: Are you aware how foolish that sounds to many people?

MR. GORE: I am aware that there are deniers of the current climate crisis we are in, yes.

ME: Ugh.

I’ll just leave this here:

 

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January 6, 2018 1:40 pm

Liberals can take one position, that the recent record cold is normal and natural, when they are taking the position opposite of President Trump. Liberals can then take the exact opposite position when they are defending Al Gore and Michael Mann. The position a liberal will take isn’t dependent upon the science, data or facts, the position a liberal will take is dependent upon who is making the claim. If Conservative believe the facts point to climate change being a fraud, liberals will defend it to the death as scientific truth. Liberals are so oblivious to the facts that The Guardian recently published an article about global warming and defended their position by using quotes that disprove the very position they were intended to defend.
https://co2islife.wordpress.com/2018/01/06/climate-change-double-standard-double-speak-proves-slimate-clience-is-a-fraud/

Kenji
January 6, 2018 1:43 pm

The Marxist shills for A-Global Warming … are like my 8yo kids who make-up ever-changing, fanciful, excuses for why lamp in the living room was broken. The wind did it. My brother/sister did it. The cat did it. It tipped over on its own. The bulb burned out and the shock caused the lamp to fall over. The dog did it. YOU did it … I saw you !

Sara
Reply to  Kenji
January 6, 2018 4:16 pm

What? They haven’t involved “Not me” and the Invisible Friend just yet?

Nick Werner
January 6, 2018 1:46 pm

Extending the Gore/Mann style of science a.k.a. perverted logic, it follows that every location that did NOT set an extreme cold record in the last two weeks must have been enduring even GREATER global warming when their most extreme cold temperatures were recorded… in 1968, 1950, 1911, … whenever.

Latitude
Reply to  Nick Werner
January 6, 2018 1:49 pm

global warming logic:…..if it wasn’t for global warming…it would have been hell of a lot colder

sexton16
January 6, 2018 2:00 pm

Climate change simultaneously responsible for Aussie heat!
“Emergency services in southeast Australia are warning people to stay indoors as a dangerous heatwave batters the country, with temperatures so high that the asphalt on some roads has been melting. “

Sheri
Reply to  sexton16
January 6, 2018 2:02 pm

Asphalt melting is not uncommon in the US. Is it in southeast Australia?

Hivemind
Reply to  Sheri
January 6, 2018 2:21 pm

No. The formula is modified to account for the higher temperatures that are normal here. In Australia, it regularly gets higher than is predicted for this week. Canberra is predicted to reach 39C today, dropping to 30C from Monday. In the late ’80s, early ’90s it went over 40C for as much as a week at a time.

Sheri
Reply to  Sheri
January 6, 2018 2:34 pm

Hivemind: Thank you. I had no idea!

Sara
Reply to  Sheri
January 6, 2018 4:19 pm

Yes, but if the media do not say something aimed at inducing panic in the population, those vapid reporters might lose their jobs!!! Da Horreure!!!

Reply to  Sheri
January 6, 2018 4:50 pm

Wait a second, asphalt melting is not uncommon in the US?
It gets soft, but melt?
Is it in Australia?
No.
Okay, no, it is not uncommon?
Meaning…um…it is common, or thereabouts.
No idea?
What, that it gets hot in Australia?
Really?

Reply to  Sheri
January 7, 2018 1:52 am

I live in south east OZ we had one day of 40C north wind of the desert by 6.30 in the evening we had a south wind that dropped the temp to around 25 C. Not a heat wave just one hot day for the next 5days max around25C with some showers. The hype for this one day was Algoricle.

Dsystem
Reply to  sexton16
January 6, 2018 3:05 pm

It was 42C yesterday, with a balmy 25C evening in Melbourne AU. Today it’ll be 20C. In south east Australia, we used to endue heatwaves that lasted a week or more. Now the media seems to be defining heatwaves as hot weather that lasts 1 day. http://www.baywx.com.au/WWW/melbt2_yest.png

tango
Reply to  Dsystem
January 8, 2018 3:51 pm

all the global change believers should state there age as most were not around in the 50s and 60s when it was HOT and no air conditioning in houses and cars in Australia

Andrew John
Reply to  sexton16
January 6, 2018 5:41 pm

You took the words right out of my mouth Forrest. The tarmac coming up on the Hume Hwy was the day before the 40º+ day, yet it was reported as if the heatwave cause it. Prior to the event temperatures in the area varied between 23º-29º the week of the road coming unstuck. New bitumen was laid along that stretch a few weeks prior to Christmas. It looks like VicRoads did a rather shotty job of it, so it can’t be the fault of the government road authority, it must be climate change.

MSM scared the hell out of everyone, just as they did when a rainstorm event was expected in Victoria in early December. It was called “stormageddon” by the media. We were told major flooding was expected (100-200mm of rain expected), to bunker down. Roads would be unsafe to travel on and power may be cut in many areas. Farmers worked 36 hours to harvest crops in expectation of the stromageddon. Turned out to be a complete flop. We had 50-70mm of rain in some areas. I actually mowed my lawn as the sun was shinning in the morning. The media will cause a panic one day with his ridiculous hyperbole.

Reply to  sexton16
January 7, 2018 12:03 am

I’ve endured the last three days of Australia’s national TV broadcaster leading its major bulletins with stories about the impending and occurring “extreme” and “catastrophic” heatwave set to devastate the south-eastern states, with live crosses to reporters and newsreaders advising in grave tones that the temperature, in the middle of summer, was forecast to exceed 40 degrees.

The hot weather lasted for less than a day. Sydney experienced the brief heat today and got to 43.4C which the warmists might laud as the fourth hottest day ever recorded in the city, but still short of the 45.3C on 14 Jan 1939. It’s now true that four of Sydney’s top 10 hottest days have happened in the new millennium, but it’s also true that the other six hottest days happened before 1961, including 1896. I could mull over the influence of UHI and mercury thermometers requiring a bit more sustained heat to reach maximum than the few seconds of an electronic AWS, but they’re different topics.

It’s little wonder there’s a belief that humanity has never before experienced so many “extreme” weather events. The media goes into a headline frenzy every time there’s some hot, cold, wet or dry weather forecast or event and many people still believe the modern media is an objective and wise source of facts (usually produced by attractive oracles aged in their 20s).

Young people in particular weren’t yet born and have no memory of when truly hot, cold or otherwise “extreme” weather was happening.

Meanwhile, it remains relevant that NOAA temps show 2007-2016 in the contiguous United States averaged 0.02F cooler min and 0.03F cooler max than 1997-2006, entirely because winters were 1.41F min and 1.33F max cooler in the most recent decade.

Based on their preliminary 2017 data, Met Office temps show 2008-2017 in the UK averaged 0.27C min cooler and 0.20C max cooler than 1998-2007, with all UK seasons cooler over the past decade except Spring in max. Again, winters were the main coolant in the UK with min dropping 0.56C and max dropping 0.46C when comparing the recent and earlier decades.

Australia averaged 0.22C warmer max and 0.10C warmer min in 2008-2017 than 1998-2007, based on ACORN anomalies, but that’s probably because all the Antarctic ice hasn’t melted and sent waves of cold winter air over Australia. /sarc

January 6, 2018 2:21 pm

Even if Mann and Gore were right… how would that help?

If AGW predicts everything – but never guessing exactly when each will come – then it provides no guidance for policy making.

Climate Science is worthless, by Gore’s own admission.

Russ R.
Reply to  M Courtney
January 7, 2018 9:37 am

It makes us helpless victims dependent on the “goodwill” of the politicians willing to make the hard choices and take money from those that didn’t contribute to their campaign, and give it to those injured by the reckless “carbon polluters”.
They get to be generous with other peoples money, and create voters out of people that would rather work, and rather be independent, but the “dependency politicians” chased all the jobs away.

January 6, 2018 2:22 pm

I heard an interview last night with a Frank Adams who is an astrophysicist. He explained how sad it was that a handful of scientists like Curry and Willie Soon just wouldn’t face the reality of what Co2 is doing to the planet–he laughed and said ALLLLL the real scientists knew it was true and had the science behind them but for 4 or 5. When the moderator (whom I know to be on the side of the skeptics) asked for a concrete example, he answered that Willie Soon kept trying to make it about sun cycles and that hundreds of papers have come out to refute his theories. If he were really practicing science, he would look at the refutations and accept that his theory about what drives climate is wrong. But instead, Frank says, Wille disappears and says nothing because he can’t admit he is wrong (I’m paraphrasing). Made me wonder about the hundreds of papers in favor of a sun-driven climate. Hmmm. The guy kept laughing and acting as if he felt sorry for Curry, Soon, Bastardi–et al.

He claimed that “we” (deniers) just don’t practice science. Or understand the consensus in science. then he claimed that we based our misguided conclusions on a handful of emails that were taken out of context. he also claimed that not one–not one– investigation of the emails showed any wrongdoing. I thought that several investigations showed it to be almost criminal..or do I remember that wrong?

I ask you, how can we make any progress when they claim that we don’t understand the science–and believe our “wrong” conclusions. When they claim that only 4 or 5 scientists are holdouts, and when they dismiss the emails out of hand and say no investigation showed any wrongdoing, when I read that they did! ow do we live in such alternate realities?

Sara
Reply to  Shelly Marshall
January 6, 2018 4:23 pm

Well, Shelly, when you run into someone whose entire shtick is built around a lie, you have encountered someone who practices the coarse art of propaganda. The ‘it is because I say it is so’ type of fellow is the person you described.

Sara
Reply to  Sara
January 7, 2018 6:18 am

Rob: I have no idea why you would throw politics at me. If you don’t like Trump, fine. But remember that YOU brought that up. I did NOT. And for your information, ROB, he filed for bankruptcy to keep Ivana, his first wife, from getting a rather massive chunk of his STUFF during divorce proceedings. Geez, you don’t even try.

Furthermore, if you do not GET that AGW/CAGW is rapidly becoming a form of religion, hence the hysterical buffoonery and uncalled-for damage and attacks on infrastructure, and on people who don’t agree with CAGWers and Warmians, then you aren’t paying attention.

Your “point”, whatever it is, has no value. You completely missed MY point, which is that dictating the terms of something like climate science and labeling people “deniers” or “UNBELIEVERS”, is selling a belief system. Look up Lysenkoism, ROB. Then try paying attention.

Like I said, I don’t care whether you like Trump or not. You tried to change the subject, for no reason at all. You’re way off base there, sport. Get over yourself.

Cynthia
Reply to  Shelly Marshall
January 6, 2018 5:40 pm

Shelly – I think it may not be possible to make progress against the AGW religion. You express a reasonable issue, but believers divert the discussion to convoluted explanations. You can show simple graphs of the past, but those are ignored, and the subject is changed. Compare this to “how many angels can dance on the head of a pin?” It is impossible to reason with such people.

Reply to  Cynthia
January 6, 2018 10:42 pm

It is impossible. Thanks. It just gets so discouraging. Why isn’t a simple graph, simple? You are right though. give them facts and they are ignored. Then you are told Sun-cycles mean nothing and if you really understood science, you would understand the sun has nothing (or little) to do with the planet warming. Sigh. It was a frustrating interview to listen to. Since when are there only 4 or 5 scientists that are skeptics?

Reply to  Shelly Marshall
January 7, 2018 12:20 am

When they claim that only 4 or 5 scientists are holdouts, and when they dismiss the emails out of hand and say no investigation showed any wrongdoing,

Well the investigations were blatant white washes so technically the claim that none showed wrong doing is accurate.

As for the 4 or 5 scientists, that’s actually an improvement. The alarmists used to argue that anyone who disagreed with them wasn’t actually a climate scientist. So admitting that there are 4 or 5… wow, that’s abig admission, lol.

Russ Wood
Reply to  davidmhoffer
January 7, 2018 3:38 am

Whitewashes are everywhere where “dirty doings” keep going on. Recently, an “internal investigation” cleared the Chairman of South Africa’s electricity authority of misconduct after a company got an umpteen million Rand contract when (a) the contract wasn’t advertised and (b) his daughter was a director. Similarly, the number two of the SA’s IRS was ‘cleared’ after being found depositing enormous amounts of unexplained cash into some ATM machines.

Justanelectrician
Reply to  Shelly Marshall
January 7, 2018 9:54 am

Shelly,
I thought I could answer your question by googling Frank Adams, to see who pays his bills. I clicked on Adam Frank, astrophysicist, accidentally, and I’m glad I did. This guy calls anyone who disagree with him deniers even as he’s whining about scientists not getting the respect they used to. He compares “climate deniers” to anti-vaccine campaigners and evolution deniers, and wonders why people don’t take him more seriously. Looks like most of his media exposure is through NPR and NY Times, so I imagine the irony is lost on his audience.

Justanelectrician
Reply to  Justanelectrician
January 7, 2018 10:26 am

“Climate deniers” is almost as funny as the irony. So, if you question, at all, the catastrophic part of CACC, you’re not only denying that, you’re also denying, not just man’s role, and not just that the climate is changing at all – you’re denying the climate itself. By the time people like Adam Frank respond, they’re four strawmen removed from the original question.

Justanelectrician
Reply to  Justanelectrician
January 7, 2018 11:14 am

Okay, change that to, “By the time many warmists respond…”; Professor Frank may actually distinguish between different levels of denial (known in the rational world as skepticism and/or science).

Bill Powers
January 6, 2018 2:28 pm

Gore’s memory is shorter than his peanut.

Bill Powers
Reply to  Bill Powers
January 6, 2018 2:29 pm

Oh shoot, I misspelled the last word in my previous post.

PiperPaul
January 6, 2018 2:41 pm

Just continuing a theme…
comment image

Nigel S
Reply to  PiperPaul
January 7, 2018 3:40 am

I took it as a subtle reference to the Inquisition and the upcoming climate crimes trials.
comment image

January 6, 2018 2:52 pm

The great certainty of climate “science” is the uncertainty of the reality that it claims to explain.

Is it any surprise, then, that the claims about a chaotic system start to become chaotic too? It’s poetic justice.

That’s why the phrase, “global warming”, now seems to take a back seat to the phrase, “climate change”.

CHANGE can be warming OR cooling — it doesn’t matter to the cause, … as long as humans are the cause.

If the climate became completely unchanging worldwide, then this too would be a problem caused by humans — the problem of static climate that interfered with evolution of the planet — causing immune system lack of adaptability, leading to increased susceptibility to disease unheard of, crop failure, war, and stuff I can’t even think of.

Climate death — the new climate change, … formerly global warming, … formerly the coming ice age.

Chance itself is a human-caused problem. My failures at gambling are YOUR fault. The reason that I never win Publisher’s Clearing House is YOUR fault. My lottery-ticket number never comes up, because it’s YOUR fault.

Send money now to help me figure out a way to improve my odds of overcoming this catastrophic threat to my well being.

Reply to  Robert Kernodle
January 8, 2018 1:07 pm

Oh, and now back to uncalled-for images (sorry, Kip):
comment image

Have I stooped low enough yet?

You’ve heard of the song, Sultan of Swing

Well, I give you Satan of Science … as in science going all to hell.

Reply to  Robert Kernodle
January 8, 2018 1:13 pm

Parody is a barometer of non truth.

Reply to  Robert Kernodle
January 8, 2018 1:32 pm

Seriously, though, how does more CO2, which is supposed to cause more heating, cause frigid cold?

Focusing on an explanation for more snow merely distracts from the issue of the supposed cold that the warmth is supposed to cause.

Diversion = Explanation = Sophistry

All of Dr. Mann’s education and study has given him a greater command of manipulating words in a way that people without his exposure cannot spot the flaws. Maybe I should have depicted him as a word magician.

January 6, 2018 3:18 pm

not just a bomb cyclone when it impacts on the entire northern hemisphere as can be seen here
“””American cold not Global issue it’s just weather say AG warmist disciples – O wait met video shows it’s affecting NH, Iceland UK Spain Portugal France Italy Germany, Nordic & Baltic countries, Russia Korea China Japan Apologies any missed – but wait it’s warm in SH O it’s summer https://t.co/dyewxy1xpt “”

ralfellis
January 6, 2018 3:19 pm

I developed a theory that this is how ice ages start.

Ice ages are obviously driven by orbital cycles (obliquity and precession), but the nascent ice age will then shrug off a subsequent orbital warming period, when obliquity and precession return to the warm side of their cycles. The reason an ice age can ignore warmer conditions, is ice albedo – the ice across the northern hemisphere simply reflects the increasing summer insolation back to space.

But this is an interesting observation, because it suggests that northern ice sheets build very quickly. A precessional Great Winter is only 5 kyr long, and then we start returning to warm conditions again (the entire cycle is only about 22 kyr long). So sufficient ice sheets must have formed in just 5 kyr, to prevent subsequent orbital warming and allow the ice age to continue building (an ice age will last from 90 kyr to 110 kyr, and will shrug off many orbital warm periods). To do this, the ice sheets must have extend all across Canada in just a few thousand years. And then grow thicker and thicker as the ice age and its ice sheets mature.

This suggests that the first flicker of an ice age may happen rather quickly. The orbital cycles reach a (famous) ‘tippping point’ where winter snow and ice is not fully melted by the weaker summer insolation. And so much of the summer insolation is reflected by high albedo ice, and the land and sea does not warm so much in that annual summer. So if we had a series of (weather driven) cold winters followed by poor summers, a thin but semi-permanent layer of snow may remain across the north. In this way, the weather (perhaps the PDO and AMO cycles) dives the longer-term ice age climate. Thus an ice age is born.

I call this theory:
Extend and Build, rather than Build and Extend.

As an example of the latter, Prof Ganopolski envisions great cliffs of ice extending out from the northern latitudes, bulldozing millions of tonnes of silts in front of them as they extend. However, the large silt deposits across Canada that survived eight or more ice ages indicate that this is a fantasy. Instead, Canada may have been covered in an ice sheet only a few meters thick in just a few hundred years. As this sheet grew in thickness it will naturally squeeze out at the base (ice acts like treacle), and push out the surface layers of rocks and silts with it. But the idea of a 500 ft cliff of ice moving slowly southwards is a complete fantasy, and invalidates Ganopolski’s entire ice age cycle theory.

Nevertheless, it so happens that we now stand at the edge of an ice age precipice. The current orbital positions, in both obliquity and precession, are very similar to the start of all the previous ice ages over the last 850 kyr. So it is possible that when we hit another Little Ice Age (driven by either solar or oceanic cycles), that this minor cooling could turn from a climate crescent (a cycle) into a one-way street towards an ice age.

The only saving grace is that future orbital (22 kyr) Great Winters are all mild, for the next 100 kyr, so we happen to exist in a very stable orbital period. This stability may well prevent a new ice age from forming. But if albedo is as strong a feedback system as I think it is (the main driver of ice age climate change) then it is entirely possible that a series of bitter winters like this one (across both America and Russia) could cross a threshold and precipitate a full blown ice age.

R

Earthling2
Reply to  ralfellis
January 6, 2018 4:07 pm

Probably also reinforced by periodic stratovolcanoism within that cooling time frame to ensure it doesn’t completely melt out whereby the young ice sheet continues to grow after which albedo takes over. And the final hammer is the shape of the orbit, when it becomes more eccentric with that much less Watts per Sq M2 falling on the entire Earth for the near 100,000 year cycle. There is no way CO2 can ever overcome those 3 cycles.

ralfellis
Reply to  Earthling2
January 7, 2018 10:18 am

I dont think vulcanism has any major effect, because ice ages and interglacials have a regular orbital synchronisation, while vulcanism is pretty random. Not sure you could guarantee a volcano every time the orbital conditions were right for a new ice age.

On the other hand you can guarantee the dust, because dust is caused by low CO2, and that goes steadily down all through the ice age. You are bound to hit the conditions for dust production at some point.

R

Earthling2
Reply to  Earthling2
January 8, 2018 5:51 pm

Perhaps not, but I think we do need some type of hammer that seals the deal, so to speak. On average we do have stratovolcanoes going off randomly several times per century and the time frame of the orbital mechanics are on the order of thousands of years. When the conditions are right throughout the northern hemisphere, as per your premise, then when the timing of a significant sized stratovolcanoe does occur, then that is the first year the snow doesn’t melt, and the ice age has a chance to start and finally mature. The dust probably isn’t that significant in the early stages of a glaciation, but more so in the depths of the ice age, when CO2 is at starvation levels. IMHO of course.

January 6, 2018 3:24 pm

Always interesting, Anthony. I posted this on my own blog before reading your post. The DISTINGUISHED Michael E. Mann, PhD.

https://gliobandme.wordpress.com/2018/01/06/michael-e-mann-phd/

I don’t know which is more vitriolic, but I am less concerned about language choices and repercussions for reasons that will be obvious if you take a moment to check it out.

Also, there’s a post about Bill Nye where as the language is way too salty for here.

Regards,
Brian

Cynthia
Reply to  brianabate
January 6, 2018 5:26 pm

Just a small change yields a true description “Dr. Michael E. Mann is Distinguished Liar of Atmospheric Science”

Extreme Hiatus
Reply to  Cynthia
January 6, 2018 8:18 pm

Or Atmospheric Science Specialist; as in Michael Mann, ASS.

Cynthia
January 6, 2018 4:03 pm

I will probably always remember Mann as that “World-renowned climate Liar Dr. Michael Mann”. Until he admits he made a mistake with that hockey stick business, and pasting two types of data in one graph …..

Gary from Chicagoland
January 6, 2018 4:16 pm

Chicago today tied a cold record dating back to 1895 on having 12 consecutive daytime highs of below 20 F with many nights below zero F. Water bottles and soda cans are exploding in our garage due to the expanding volume of the ice inside these sealed containers. Global computer models, Mann and Gore didn’t predict this record cold spell. That’s not following the scientific method that states when data is in conflict with the theory, it’s the theory that’s needs adjusting (not the temps that seem to be politically adjusted with a colder past and a warmer present)

R. Shearer
Reply to  Gary from Chicagoland
January 6, 2018 6:48 pm

Is it too late to bring cans and bottles inside?

knr
January 6, 2018 4:18 pm

One amazing thing about ‘settled science’ is how it cannot provide an answer to the question , ‘what would disprove this theory’ . And one reason it cannot give an answer is because they have jumped on every extreme weather events as ‘proof’ of climate doom. So what is left when everything is ‘proof’?
And at this stage adjust your minds to think religion , and forgot any ones you have about science.

michael hart
January 6, 2018 4:32 pm

Even Al Gore and the lonesome Mann know that the only thing we should really expect is “It’s worse than we thought”.

Is that not the most marvellous paradox that should be engraved on the tombstone of the global-warming movement?

Bear
January 6, 2018 4:36 pm

But climate science is so accurate! /sarc

January 6, 2018 4:47 pm

Maybe we should be asking what global warming CAN’T do, so that when it doesn’t happen, we’ll know global warming is to blame.

climatebeagle
January 6, 2018 4:49 pm

Back in 2000 the National Climate Assessment said for the Northeast:
“Over the coming century, winter snowfalls and periods of extreme cold will likely decrease.”

https://downloads.globalchange.gov/nca/nca-2000-report-overview.pdf

Same thing in the 2009 National Climate Assessment.

Nothing about there being colder winters.

RC
January 6, 2018 4:51 pm

“COAL WILL NOT BRING APPALACHIA BACK TO LIFE – BUT TECH AND GOVERNMENT JOBS COULD”……..

Ahhh, I see where this is coming from, only Government jobs can bring back Appalachia jobs back, not private industry. The left speaks the truth and it’s always a lie.

Steve Oregon
January 6, 2018 6:56 pm

This idiocy is nothing compared to what is ahead after another year of Trump and the GOP dismantling the climate bureaucracies and devastating the climate crusade.
Every month the misery gets worse for the Progressive Supremacists.
They can’t stand not getting their way and are losing their minds watching the power of their movement get decimated.

ResouceGuy
January 6, 2018 7:30 pm

It doesn’t get much better than this with snow drifts and bitter cold in markeyville and AL Gore the political climate scientist explaining at as global warming.

Neo
January 6, 2018 7:49 pm

When Al Gore dies, his headstone will read …

“Dying is part of Living” – BearManPig

BruceC
Reply to  Neo
January 7, 2018 4:45 am

The great Spike Milligan’s head stone reads:

Told you I was sick!

January 6, 2018 8:13 pm

In a few years, Michael Mann and Al Gore will be things of the past. Children won’t know the joy of waking up to find social media covered with yet another transparently false attribution of last week’s weather to climate change.

It’s predicted in the models, you know.

BTW nice opinion peace in the National Post today, making fun of the idiocy.

http://nationalpost.com/opinion/rex-murphy-too-frigid-for-global-warming-this-is-why-they-rebranded-it-climate-change