Guest essay by Eric Worrall
If the “Fire and Fury” Musk excerpt is true, Elon Musk appears to be rapidly adapting to the spending priorities of the Trump era – downplaying his climate ventures, advancing proposals for himself to be at the helm of the Trump push for exploration missions to other planets. But in my opinion there will be a terrible price to pay, if Elon Musk receives his free money.
Elon Musk pitched Trump on SpaceX’s mission to colonize other planets
BRYAN LOGAN, KIERAN CORCORAN, DAVE MOSHER
JAN 5, 2018
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk sought to pique Donald Trump’s interest in space colonization shortly after he was elected.
Musk has previously asserted that mortals need to leave Earth in order to preserve humanity.
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Among the many claims made in Michael Wolff’s “Fire and Fury: Inside the Trump White House,” one passage described a scene at Trump Tower where then-president-elect Trump was taking meetings with tech titans like the Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos, and SpaceX and Tesla CEO Elon Musk.
According to the excerpt, Musk had sought to get Trump interested in SpaceX’s “race to Mars,” ostensibly an effort to keep his company front-of-mind in the broad scope of national space exploration.
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Nobody knows for sure how much corporate welfare Musk has secured. Back in 2015, LA Times asserted Musk’s empire was powered by $4.9 billion worth of government grants.
Whatever else he is, Musk has a genius for grabbing and holding the attention of politicians, convincing them to shower his business ventures with vast sums of public money.
President Obama’s generosity with taxpayer’s money helped Elon Musk produce “green” cars only the wealthy could afford.
Much as I want to see expeditions to Mars and beyond, something feels very wrong about this approach. Musk’s planetary exploration venture, if it materializes, might well yield a successful manned expedition to Mars – but Musk’s space venture would be powered by a deluge of taxpayers’ money. The expedition would be a massive source of national pride, but financially it would be a gigantic opportunity cost for taxpayers.
What if we could do something useful, something which could provide value, a demonstration of profitability so compelling that no government would ever have to financially support another space venture?
Amazon founder Jeff Bezos is putting a billion dollars per year of his own money into a company called Blue Origin. Blue Origin is focussing on building cheap space launch capability, the keystone of other efforts such as asteroid mining and space tourism.
Bezos is hardly alone – plenty of other investors are taking space seriously. Back in April this year, Goldman Sachs publicly claimed Asteroid mining – recovering high-value metals like Platinum from small Asteroids – might be a lot closer to financial viability than most people believe.
I’m not venturing an opinion as to whether Goldman Sachs is right – but the key point from my point of view is all these people are risking their own money. Not taxpayer’s money. Their own money. Sooner or later, one of these brilliant capitalists will find a way to make it work.
What happens if Musk receives free money? Why do I think there would be “a terrible price to pay”?
In my opinion, the easiest way to kill off this genuine private ecosystem of space venture capitalism would be to dump a deluge of public cash into the hands of just one player, or even a select small group of players. If Elon Musk receives a blank cheque from President Trump, the value of the private investments of all the other entrepreneurs essentially drops to zero. The risk Musk would get there first riding a tsunami of zero risk taxpayer’s cash would simply be too great to ignore. Everyone else would have to pull back until the government stopped funding Musk’s space efforts.
The private effort, the private cash invested by the likes of Bezos, will eventually produce an expedition to Mars, and many other exciting missions. But the private expedition when it comes will be undertaken for sound financial reasons. More than pride, an expedition to Mars mounted by US entrepreneurs using their own money would likely yield a profit, and wouldn’t cost taxpayers a dime.
President Trump, the US government, should stick to doing what the USA does best – removing bureaucratic roadblocks and political obstacles, so US based space entrepreneurs can reach for the stars.
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Does anyone seriously believe that humanity is such a benefit that we should propagate to other planets?
yes
“If Elon Musk receives a blank cheque from President Trump, the value of the private investments of all the other entrepreneurs essentially drops to zero. The risk Musk would get there first riding a tsunami of zero risk taxpayer’s cash would simply be too great to ignore. Everyone else would have to pull back until the government stopped funding Musk’s space efforts.”
Eric? Where have you been for the last 15 years???? You speak as one ignorant of the history of SpaceX and the 25 years of commercial spaceflight before SpaceX.
First, your idea, that SpaceX, as opposed to Tesla, is easily massively fundable by the WH, ignores the hatred of the Alabama congressional delegation, and their allies from Florida and Texas. It is led by Senator Richard Shelby, Chair of NASA’s Senate funding committee. His unwillingness to fund the COTS-D/Commercial Crew program, started under President Bush, for *anyone* in space launch who is not dependent on his power to appropriate NASA money for space launchers built in Northern Alabama, has demonstrated for the past 9 years, at minimum, what the prospects are for SpaceX. There may be purchases of flights on SpaceX rockets, but SpaceX is going to dominate only if their $7 million flights in their fully reusable BFS/BFR launcher become reality with payloads of 150 tons. If SpaceX succeeds in that, on whatever schedule, then they deserve the lead position in space launch.
Beyond that, Tesla is not SpaceX. SpaceX has had funding through rounds A-H, with private investors who know that letting the government’s cost+ contractor corporate culture take hold will mean the end of their intentions to build a transportation system for settling the Solar System. Musk holds 75% of voting shares, but can be sued by other investors if he tries to dump those intentions.
It is true that Tesla got the government to help, but *only* because no congressional coalition stood in the way. With SpaceX, Shelby’s SLS/Orion coalition would go to the wall to stop development funding of the magnitude you imply. This article is a really ignorant summary of Lexington Institute propaganda. Lexington Institute is the mouthpiece for the cost+congressional contractor’s club, schlepping for SLS/Orion.
Tom, great comment on the politics and purse strings.
Yes, I’ve been through the cycle several times.
Good post, Tom, on a topic that doesn’t get much coverage. Congress critters are definitely an obstacle to our space program sometimes.
Hello Eric…
Thank you for trying your best.
Hopefully, Elon one day will find it in his strength and ability to thank you too.
From my point of view, the bigger problem, that Elon faces at this very moment in time, has more to do with his ability and strength to engage or not in a very clear public declaration of his victim hood status when it comes to Depp State and his relation – affiliation with it…
From my point of understanding, even tomorrow could be considered as too late, if Elon fails with this…
Elon happens to be a very clever guy, and if this thing of Deep State and his affiliation with it happens to be a little more than just a silly conspiracy theory, especially when it comes to Elon’s position, then the guy has seriously to consider whether in the end HE happens to be a victim or not….as most likely being the case of a victim.
Failing to clearly publicly declare such as, and in same time failing to make amendments in a open clear attempt to depart from such ex affiliation, will render one as not a victim…Bound to stand up for him self…
I know this seems and “sounds” a bit silly and maybe too much to expect, but you see Elon is one who actually knows better than any one else about his given position at this moment……and hopefully this Deep State thingy is just a figment of imagination……..so he may not have to worry at all, hopefully.
You are welcome my friend..:)
cheers
Surely to goodness Elon Musk has already wasted enough of US taxpayer’s money?
It is a great idea to establish colonies of humans on other planets and Elon Musk should be one of the first people that they send there. Hopefully, it will be a far away planet too. Unfortunately, if there is intelligent life already on that planet, they would probably send Elon back immediately.
Elon Musk is like Steve jobs with the cult-like following and a somewhat smaller reality distortion field but he is unlike Jobs in that so far he has none of Steve’s success. It would be like if you get to the end of the yellow brick road, find out there is a man behind the curtain and somehow you are even more impressed.
I think Elon Musk is a very charming Orren Boyle. It would be fascinating to see how he does if all the government money is yanked.
Why the fragmented efforts of various billionaires, countries, and organizations to approach a mission as important to the world as Mars exploration? If Russia and the US can jointly man the international space station and even agree to build a moon-orbiting space station together, whatever happened to this kind of collaboration? Maybe collaborative work on Anti-Gravity Propulsion Systems for instance.
IMO the world needs to get together in a combined global effort. This is far too important for a greed/power/influence fuelled country vs country, investor vs taxpayer ‘space-race’.
Let’s approach this as citizens of the Blue Planet.
Did someone invent the force field required to protect space travelers from the intense DNA-scrambling radiation?
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Most of the dangerous radiation in space consists of electrically charged particles: high-speed electrons and protons from the Sun, and massive, positively charged atomic nuclei from distant supernovas.
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Working safely on the moon – what it might look like…one day:
(Imagination courtesy of ASRC Aerospace.)
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“Portable designs might even be mounted onto “moon buggy” lunar rovers to offer protection for astronauts as they explore the surface.”
[…]
“It sounds wonderful, but there are many scientific and engineering problems yet to be solved.”
[…]
“But, who knows, perhaps one day astronauts on the Moon and Mars will work safely, protected by a simple principle of electromagnetism even a child can understand.”
https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2005/24jun_electrostatics/
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I heard that Musk was planning to send one of his heavily-subsidized electric cars to spend a billion years in orbit around Mars, launching this month. I guess a billion years gives us time to solve that little radiation problem. 🙂
Does it sometimes see that Musk is self-consciously modeling himself on Heinlein’s D.D. Harriman?
I forget who but someone wrote that the reason Musk and Bezos are doing space is not for the money (although they will make plenty of it) as they have enough already. They want to be D.D. Harriman.
Stop quoting that stupid LA puppytrainer article Eric.It is lazy and makes me wonder about your other articles.
SpaceX gets NASA money for delivering stuff to orbit. I’m sure Fedex and UPS etc get the same for delivering stuff elsewhere. There may be some other funding to develop things to NASA spec. If I was Trump I’d tell NASA that all services will be provided by commercial suppliers and no you don’t get to tell them how to do it or design the vehicles just as I or you do not get to tell Boeing and Airbus how to design the airliners we fly on.
Good comment Mike.
The COTS/CRS programs Space-X developed the Falcon-9 under was pay for performance, at first for milestones (COTS) and then for deliveries (CRS). If the milestone wasn’t met or the delivery not made, no payment. Essentially the government is/was a customer paying for a service. This is unlike the usual cost-plus way of doing things where you pay-as-you go and if it doesn’t work you pay-as-you go to do it again (or cancel it with money lost). The program was/is a huge success for NASA and saved taxpayers massively. Some of the other comments also make my head spin. Reading that Musk has “no accomplishments” just floors me. If someone is able to watch a Space-X landing of a Falcon 9 on a barge at sea and think the man has accomplished nothing… I guess you are not into space! 😉
On another note, I think it is great that Bezos is investing a billion of his own money into Space, I think the competition will produce even better results. At his current net worth though he can probably comfortably lose a billion if his space bets don’t pay off. Early on Musk bet his entire (lesser) fortune on Space-X and nearly lost it. I think he has more skin-in-the-game as they say.
From wiki (but sourced to the final report):
NASA’s Final Report on the Commercial Orbit Transportation Services program considers it an unqualified success and a model for future public-private collaboration. Compared to traditional costs-plus contracts employed by NASA, such as the $12 billion Orion (spacecraft) contract, the unprecedented efficiency of the $800 million COTS investment resulted in “two new U.S. medium-class launch vehicles and two automated cargo spacecraft”.
Musk is clearly a at best a sociopath but mostly a psychopath.
Big on charm and manipulation low on actual performance, a con man.
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/01/china-aims-record-breaking-year-40-launches/
Here is another prime example of why the U.S. desperately needs Spacex to be successful. Particularly this year with Falcon Heavy. IF and this is a HUGE IF Spacex can deliver with Falcon Heavy like they have with Falcon 9, America MIGHT be able to get back into the driver’s seat. And IF Spacex can deliver on crewed flights in 2018, America can take it’s space program back from the Russians.
GO Spacex Go!!
I didn’t go on a date tonight, I woke up really upset this afternoon, my face was soaking wet, my dreams are worse than reality, like waves crashing over me, so much has happend I need time to slow my appetite and grow, become stronger, life is a crushing pain, continusly
I seriously doubt that anyone is going to Mars, any time soon. We have pretty much used up all of our Pu238, which was the premiere battery material for space exploration. Even if we do start producing it again, it will take years to accumulate enough to manufacture the RTGs for one mission. We should have started twenty years ago, but nobody in government wanted to address the issue of building the nuclear reactors to do this.