Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Does record breaking winter cold cast doubt on climate predictions of milder winters? Could ANY weather or climate shift cast doubt on the dominance of that wicked little trace molecule? Apparently not, according to leading climate explainers.
It’s cold outside, but that doesn’t mean climate change isn’t real
Sammy Roth, USA TODAY Published 5:13 p.m. ET Dec. 28, 2017
This week’s cold snap has brought record-low temperatures, freezing rain and heavy snow to much of the United States. But 2017 is still on track to be the second- or third-hottest year ever recorded globally — and scientists say climate change is to blame.
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Even this week’s cold weather is probably being caused at least in part by global warming, said Jonathan Overpeck, a climate scientist at the University of Michigan.
The Arctic is warming much faster than most of the planet, leading to a dramatic decline in the amount of sea ice that covers the region each winter. That loss of ice has allowed more heat to transfer from the ocean to the atmosphere, causing a weakening of the polar vortex winds over the Arctic. Those winds usually “insulate the rest of the Northern Hemisphere” from freezing Arctic temperatures, Overpeck said. But as the winds have weakened, it’s gotten easier for freezing Arctic air to swoop further south, he said.
“That is due to the warming of the Arctic, which in turn is due to human emissions of greenhouse gases and primarily burning of fossil fuels,” Overpeck said in an interview.
Arctic warming may also be contributing to the long-term drying of the U.S. Southwest, although the science on that front is less certain, Overpeck said. Unlike most of the rest of North America, the Southwest is warmer than usual right now, and 2017 will “without a doubt” go down as one of the region’s hottest years ever measured, Overpeck said.
“This is contributing to our record wildfires in California, and the drying out of vegetation that’s leading to those wildfires, and the drying out of the Southwest’s water,” he said.
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So what happens if global temperatures take a real plunge for a sustained period? Don’t worry, the explainers have that one covered as well – James Hansen, former NASA GISS Director, published a paper which suggests global warming will trigger a short ice age in the near future (see the graph at the top of the page).
… Global temperature becomes an unreliable diagnostic of planetary condition as the ice melt rate increases. Global energy imbalance (Fig. 15b) is a more meaningful measure of planetary status as well as an estimate of the climate forcing change required to stabilize climate. Our calculated present energy imbalance of ∼ 0.8 W m−2 (Fig. 15b) is larger than the observed 0.58 ± 0.15 W m−2 during 2005–2010 (Hansen et al., 2011). The discrepancy is likely accounted for by excessive ocean heat uptake at low latitudes in our model, a problem related to the model’s slow surface response time (Fig. 4) that may be caused by excessive small-scale ocean mixing.
Large scale regional cooling occurs in the North Atlantic and Southern oceans by mid-century (Fig. 16) for 10-year doubling of freshwater injection. A 20-year doubling places similar cooling near the end of this century, 40 years ear- lier than in our prior simulations (Fig. 7), as the factor of 4 increase in current freshwater from Antarctica is a 40-year advance.
Cumulative North Atlantic freshwater forcing in sverdrup years (Sv years) is 0.2 Sv years in 2014, 2.4 Sv years in 2050, and 3.4Sv years (its maximum) prior to 2060 (Fig. S14). The critical issue is whether human-spurred ice sheet mass loss can be approximated as an exponential process during the next few decades. Such nonlinear behavior depends upon amplifying feedbacks, which, indeed, our climate simulations reveal in the Southern Ocean. …
Read more: http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/3761/2016/acp-16-3761-2016.pdf
Global warming is an infinitely flexible, unscientific, unfalsifiable theory which can be stretched to accommodate any observation. Some Climate Scientists even shamelessly reject the very concept of scientific falsification with regard to the conduct of climate science.
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1. Methods aren’t always necessarily falsifiable
Falsifiability is the idea that an assertion can be shown to be false by an experiment or an observation, and is critical to distinctions between “true science” and “pseudoscience”.
Climate models are important and complex tools for understanding the climate system. Are climate models falsifiable? Are they science? A test of falsifiability requires a model test or climate observation that shows global warming caused by increased human-produced greenhouse gases is untrue. It is difficult to propose a test of climate models in advance that is falsifiable.
Science is complicated – and doesn’t always fit the simplified version we learn as children.
This difficulty doesn’t mean that climate models or climate science are invalid or untrustworthy. Climate models are carefully developed and evaluatedbased on their ability to accurately reproduce observed climate trends and processes. This is why climatologists have confidence in them as scientific tools, not because of ideas around falsifiability.
The Conversation: Climate change has changed the way I think about science. Here’s why
No matter what happens to the weather, the climate explainers shamelessly cobble together an explanation which blames bad weather on your sinful lifestyle.
Whatever the observation, the climate explainers have their theory – their infinitely adaptable theory, which they claim is science. Warm weather confirms their worst fears. Cold weather is waved away. Whatever the observation, the explainers shamelessly adapt their theory to provide an explanation, based on their “scientific” theory which cannot be falsified by any conceivable observations, event an abrupt plunge into a new ice age.
Winter is cold and bitter: must be global warming. Winter is too warm: must be global warming. Summer is too cold: must be global warming. Summer is too hot: must be global warming. There’s a hurricane: must be global warming. There’s a forest fire: must be global warming. There’s a tornado: must be global warming. There’s an earthquake: must be global warming. The ocean levels rise .01cm: must be global warming. The ocean levels fall .01cm: must be global warming. Al Gore buys a new luxury home: must be global warming.
They’re lovable nut jobs, aren’t they?
It is so good to have a president who understands these fraudsters. Otherwise we would be paying trillions to their fantasy.
as an engineer – – and scientist with patents to my name- – – in Electronics and for Mechanical Designs – – – one point in this whole series of comments – – – is that the Sun varies slightly in its output – – – note the 11 year sun spot cycle – – and we all know the effect of the sun on our bodies on a nice hot summer day – –
the problems the global warming models are have the sun’s output fixed and this is deep down as a constant in all models – – – why did they do this because – – they could not predict what the sun’s output would be over the years – – –
C02 concentration has not matched the models predictions – – means that another factor must be in play – – tweeting data to get the results you want – – – I saw years ago a chart from NASA that was sun spots vs average temperature – – – close to 100% matching – – –
and we are having a solar min. low sunspots – – I sure that has been in the news – – low number of sunspots relates to lower solar output – – – –
as a side note during out peak temp a few years ago – – – I saw a NASA report that Mars was 1 Degree hotter – – – and guess when – – comments were made – – “how did we cause this?” right how did we – – and Neptune an Ice planted – – reflective increased a couple of % during this same time period – – – – this just backs up that the sun varies in its output – – a bit – – not a lot but enough to cause a couple of degrees changed – – this is not man made – – – – –
the British Navy has traveled the world from the 1400’s on – – – and had strict rules – – – each day at the same time they recorded the air and water temperature – – – with ships all around the world – – – this has formed a good historical records – – –
the Chines monks – – – have recorded sun spots for over 2000 years – – – comparing these records – – is what needs to be done – – – –
also modify the climate modules to allow for actual variations in the Sun’s output – – – and the run the models — – – you will then see that CO2 is not a major factor in the variations – – – but the sun is
now how did this Climate change – – Global Warming start – – – – Bush is an oil man – – – making environment issues an easy target for him – – – to keep him from being re-elected – – – –
this has evolved into major research – – – as in many people have their fingers into the pie – — a huge pie – – billions – – and all of these will be out of work if the truth was to come out – – many are blind to the truth and do not want to hear it – – – for it will mean they are out of a job – – – Note the Climate change people do not want to use Satellite data – – – it is not corrected – – but want to use the ground based monitors – – which are corrected for location caused errors – – by humans – – – with their lively hood at risk this adjusted Data is then feed to other researches – – who take this data as fact – – – –
do not get me wrong – – – I do believe that we should care for out planet – – – as it is the only one that we have – – but at the same time – – keep things in balance – – – we have come a long ways from the 60’s were a river in Chicago caught on fire – – how do you put out a fire with water when it is the river that is burning – – – major industries have upgraded their processes – – control their waste output – – – America has done lots to improve our planet – – now we have to look at other countries and work to help them – – – guide them – – – as they are starting to realize that damage that they are doing to them selves and the world – – –
if we look at what we are doing – – – – all of the fake media news – – – fake dossier that the Hillary Campaign and DNC paid over $6 million for all of the fake news that is put out – – – – how things are being twisted – – is it strange that Climate Change would not have the same thing happening – – – – and put forth to cause hype and reaction – – – – and it has been working – – – very good – – – – we as people need to stop and think about what were are hearing and reading – – go is there more to this – – – what are the real facts – – – and as we always say – – look at who is telling this to you – – and what are motives – – – –
Sophie Lewis says ‘methods are not always necessarily falsifiable’. Nonsense, if you are doing science, falsifiability is a requirement. Why is it that warmists and those in a few other sciences, seem to think that they are excempt from the rules? Is it that their ideas are so noble that they are exempt from the rules that nearly all other scientists follow?
If this is consensus science at work and given that consensus science is certain, I am surprized that they have not come up with ‘A Law of Global Warming’ by now.
The Law of Global Warming would have a lot of dollar signs in it.
Progs changed “Global warming” to “climate change” a few years so that they could then say “Record wildfires in California! Climate change!” as well as “Record 60 inches of snow in Pennsylvania! and cold records broken going back a hundred years! Climate change!” See how convenient that is?
But…but…they said this was going to be a milder winter than usual? SMH
I am tired of all this hot air or is it cold air being blown up my ass. Liars figure and figures lie.
In the end, we are all going to die.
Uhmmmm……..well the Evo-Wackos had better hope it gets warmer rather than cooler….Warmer things grow and there is stuff to eat…..colder and things die and everyone starves to death starting in ALL the cities first……..
2015 Death Toll:
Global Warming: 0
ISIS: Guestimates: between 28,000 and 170,000…who knows?
Also, during this time period, there were 2865 Islamic attacks in 53 countries, in which 27625 people were killed and 26148 injured.
Every Earth Day prediction has failed spectacularly.
• None of the ‘Climate Change Environmental Predictions’ of the last 47 years have come true…
Dang! I hate it when the world ends and I miss it.
• Happens every time, too. EVERY…SINGLE…TIME!
Has anyone compiled the various Earth Day scientific predictions?
We know the green activists and NGOs have consistently gone off the deep end. But what about practicing scientists? Hansen, et al.
scientist are humans also – – – and like all of us – – can pick and choose what they want to believe – – – – just look at the how people can be – – – IS and their warped sense of religion – – – racism – – and what it is based upon – — – need I go on
If you can identify a fixed definition of racism, Jim, we might agree.
look at the Dictionary – – – Racism is making decisions without full knowledge – – – as in hot knowing someone and saying that they are this way – – – – it has evolved recently to mean anyone that does not agree with you. – – – – and has become a catch word that is used for anything – – – and as a means to attack someone – – – else – – – – just like the black senator who acts like a queen – – better than anyone else on a United Flight – – – attacked the white person over – – – – – uses the word to justify her actions and get support of people that do not know the whole facts – – – –
I am white, and have had people want to accuse me of being Rasist – – – my second wife’s 20 year old son who was having some troubles – – – he wanted to just accuse me of being Rasist – – – while I am married to his black mother – – – he had troubles – – – wanting but could not say – – – – – my first was Indian, girl friends have been Asian and East European along with others – – – – –
also the N word that is better not to be said – – – – dictionary states it means “Low Life” and these come in any race – – – and has evolved to a slang meaning – – – what we all know
Also, Jim, just what is it you say that has anything to do with the accuracy of Earth Day predictions?
Don’t you wish humans could affect climate? You wouldn’t have to freeze to death as many will this year.
Drudge has led the flat earthers here.
Please identify the flat earthers here, Tommy.
Arson in CA is a symptom of global warming?
Drudge sluge. This article isn’t right about anything. 1 day of warming isn’t about changing the complete environment. Does anyone believe this (Snip) MOD
Eric dumb. More people other places smart. Dumb dumb go home
[???? .mod]
Whatever. Nobody believes these idiots anymore. Except other useful idiots. And fortunately we outnumber those now.
God has plenty to say about climate change from scripture and it just may surprise you –> https://www.amazon.com/God-Climate-Change-Worshipping-creation/dp/0692978232
I’m tired of enviro-nuts trying to Warmsplain things.
Global warming??
Cold snap??
This earthly plane is and always will be ever evolving.
No one can stop it.
No one can change it.
The plane of the earth has been healing its self for a long time now.
Humans are not the cause.
And please, don’t let this world order convince you that you are to blame.
I love the fact that I don’t have to say, wake up.
We are awake, and this grows hour by hour.
Why isn’t anyone talking about Antarctica, the ice wall that surrounds the circumference of our flat plane earth??.
Oh I know, because all modern religion will be debunked by the the mathematical facts that the region that we all knew as earth is not a spinning ball.
Gravity does not exist.
It’s still only a theory.
Who will challenge facts?
Not feelings, not wallflowers, but pure unadulterated true facts.
That’s what I thought.
Now Santa Claus only exists cause Christmas is a pagan reincarnation of lies.
Ask me and I will tell you that I know Santa is real.
If the earth is round, then how the hell (f word not allowed. Mod) is all the water glued to the earth?
When the scientists say that we are spinning at 1000 miles on our axis.
And hurdling at more than 46000 an hour recklessly through space.
Around the sun it’s more than 60000 miles an hour.
You are being deceived and lies to by the very people that swore to protect you.
Flat worlder – – – you have heard of gravity – – – it is what keeps us on the ground – – along with many other aspects – – – – it is what would pull the earth into a ball – – – gravity keeps us on the ground – – and the water on the planet – – –
BULLSHIT!
“Record wildfires” came after record precip and snowpack the preceding two winters which ended the California drought and caused heavy ground vegetation blooms. That drought was the previous leading “example” of AGW, but then it ended, so the heavy growth of California’s native brush, much of which requires burnoff as part of it’s lifecycle, lead to wildfires which are the new “example” of AGW.
Some of the frauds were claiming that the flooding rains and heavy snows in the mountains that ended their “permanent drought” was a manifestation of “climate change”. It must be tough on the cretins who buy into this fraud, shivering in bed at night having nightmares about what’s the next disaster that “climate change” will bring.
Let the attic thaw and then we can inhabit it no worries problem solved.
“leading to a dramatic decline in the amount of sea ice that covers the region each winter. ”
Its almost as much over the 2016 November extent as below the 1981-2010 mean. Mainly because of little ice in the Chukchi sea.
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2017/12/n_extn_hires.png
Looking at the plot rather than listening to Overpeck, it looks suspiciously like ocean currents caused both.
Lets get real! No matter what the ice extent this same weather pattern has occurred many times in the past. Back in the 1970s the same thing happened when a bunch of “climate scientists” were predicting a coming ice age and extent was extremely high. If what this guy claims were true the during MWP when the Noresmen were living in southern Greenland and extents were very low then N. America and Europe would have had severe winters. They didn’t. Climate history is enemy of all alarmists, that is why they conspired to change it and are trying to change it now for the more recent past.
Let’s be real here, the vast majority of climate lemmings are no more educated in climate science than anyone else, they’re just a whole lot more gullible.