I was notified by a friend that Tamino is slagging Anthony and me over at his blog, where I was banned from commenting years ago because I pointed out some unwanted facts to him. Of course, Tamino is still free to comment here, we don’t censor the views we might disagree with—that’s science.
To begin with, attacking a man where he cannot reply is just scummy. But that’s no surprise, it is Tamino after all. He doesn’t even have the albondigas to sign his own name to his own words … so I expect nothing from him and am yet to be disappointed. As Churchill is reputed to have said of one of his opponents, “He’s a humble man … and he has much to be humble about”.
Tamino’s post is called Why I call Anthony Watts and Willis Eschenbach “denier”. Charming. Of course, Tamino knows that this term “denier” was picked because of its association to “Holocaust denier”, and that it is an objectionable, anti-scientific term designed to pluck at his reader’s heartstrings and avoid their intellect … but like I said. Pond scum.
He claims that Anthony and I are “deniers” because in a post about the USCRN, the US Climate Reference network, I pointed out a fact, which is that the US has not shown any statistically significant warming since the USCRN started.
Tamino starts by agreeing with me:
The estimated trend is upward, but its uncertainty is large because the time covered is so short. I estimate the warming rate at 10 ± 14 °F/century (95% confidence limits). Because the uncertainty is so large, we say that the claim the trend is upward fails to reach “statistical significance.”
But he goes further:
If this was the only data we had, we would know that the trend was highly uncertain; it could be as low as cooling at 4 °F/century, but it could be warming at a whopping 24 °F/century.
But we do have more data for the “lower 48” states of the U.S., from the National Climate Data Center, all the way from 1895 to the present.
He then proceeds to post up a graph comparing the NCDC data from 1975 to the USCRN data from 2005.
Regarding this graph, Tamino says:
This makes it abundantly clear that ignoring the trend from NCDC data, mentioning only the USCRN data, helps our understanding not at all. It only serves one purpose: to muddy the waters.
Look, folks, that is comparing apples to oranges. By that logic, we should be able to throw up the trend from say 1940 to 2017 and claim that that “helps our understanding” of the much shorter trends … sorry, but that simply doesn’t work. And why did he pick 1975 as his start date?
So … what’s next? Is Tamino going to tell us that the trend from 1850 can help our understanding of the current hiatus in warming? How about the trend since 1650? Hey, it’s been warming since 1900, and according to Tamino, that should disprove the general warming hiatus from 1945 to 1975 … but actually, it does nothing of the sort.
Here’s a protip for Tamino. If you want to compare trends, you need to compare them over the same time span. I’d do that for the NCDC data that Tamino used, as I suspect that there is no significant trend in that as well … but then like far too many folks masquerading as scientists, he didn’t post a link to his data as used.
And in any case, as I said in my previous post:
So … still no significant trend. Yes, the dataset is short, 13 years … but there are a number of 13-year periods in US temperature history which do have significant trends.
Facts are stubborn things, and I know Tamino doesn’t like it, but the facts are that the best data we have say there is no significant warming since 2005. Adding other data from 1975 onward doesn’t tell us anything further about the post-2005 trend.
Ah, well, I take comfort in knowing that when I start taking flak, it means I’m over the target.
I’m still in the Solomon Islands, for reasons I related in my first post from there, Feasting. My second and third posts from the islands, entitled Munny and Hauling Out, are up at my blog, Skating Under The Ice. So while Tamino is gnashing his teeth and pointing fingers and angrifying his blood and wailing “Deniers! Deniers!” at Anthony and me … well, me, I’m living the dream … you’re welcome to come along.
My thanks as always to Anthony for this amazing blog, where people are free to hold far-ranging discussions on scientific matters. The current mania for censoring speech that people happen to disagree with, from Tamino’s and Gavin Schmidt’s blogs, to the Democratic Party refusing to condemn Antifa’s violent censorship, to the college campuses all across the US, is a horrible and worrisome trend. I stand for free speech, this blog stands for free speech. Tamino and Gavin stand for censorship, which should tell you something about the quality of their science. Go figure …
My best wishes for everyone,
Added: It is important (at least to me) to point out that “Tamino” is actually Mr. Grant Foster of Portland Maine. I don’t have a whole lot of respect for people who label other people with pejoratives such as “denier” while being too cowardly to put his/her name to such labeling – Anthony Watts
Thanks, Anthony. Also, there are some interesting links in the “Related Posts” just below.