Earth’s future is ‘worse than we thought’ – 25th anniversary edition

From the AMERICAN INSTITUTE OF BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, Union of Concerned Scientists, and the “most well-known concerned scientist is a dog” department comes this bluster of “worse than we thought 25 years ago”.

Scientists update their ‘warning to humanity’ on its 25th anniversary

Scientists have long engaged the public and leaders on crucial matters of environmental stewardship. In 1992, the Union of Concerned Scientists, along with more than 1700 signatories, issued the “World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity,” in which they argued that human impacts on the natural world were likely to lead to “vast human misery” and a planet that was “irretrievably mutilated.”

On the twenty-fifth anniversary of the landmark declaration, William J. Ripple, his colleagues, and over 15,000 signatories from 184 countries revisit the original warning in what they deem “A Second Notice“. Using time-series data, the authors evaluate human responses to the threats identified in 1992. With the exception of a stabilized stratospheric ozone layer, the news is not good. “Humanity is not taking the urgent steps needed to safeguard our imperiled biosphere,” report the authors. They note that the overwhelming majority of the previously outlined threats remain and “alarmingly, most of them are getting far worse.”

Not all of the news is bleak. Ripple and his colleagues note that the “rapid global decline in ozone-depleting substances shows that we can make positive change when we act decisively.” To build on this success, the authors outline 13 areas in which reined-in human behaviors may be able to move the Earth’s systems toward sustainability. The failure to heed this second notice, say the authors, would produce dire consequences, with catastrophic biodiversity loss and widespread misery for humans. The authors include a cautionary note: “Soon it will be too late to shift course away from our failing trajectory, and time is running out. We must recognize, in our day-to-day lives and in our governing institutions, that Earth with all its life is our only home.” But they also close with an optimistic message about working together on these environmental challenges: “We can make great progress for the sake of humanity and the planet on which we depend.”

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“Humanity is not taking the urgent steps needed to safeguard our imperiled biosphere,”

I dunno about these guys, seems they missed the fact that the biosphere seems to be happy, and growing. Obviously they only see what they wish.

Composite image showing the global distribution of photosynthesis, including both oceanic phytoplankton and terrestrial vegetation. Dark red and blue-green indicate regions of high photosynthetic activity in the ocean and on land, respectively. Image: NASA SEAWIFS

NASA says the Biosphere is booming, and increased CO2 is the cause

NASA says 30% growth in biosphere is attributed to CO2

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November 13, 2017 4:35 pm

Carbon Dioxide Fertilization Greening Earth, Study Finds:

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/carbon-dioxide-fertilization-greening-earth

Global cereal production seen hitting (another) new high in 2017:

https://www.indoasiancommodities.com/2017/10/05/global-cereal-production-hitting-new-high-2017-fao/

November 9-GRAINS-Corn hits new lows after USDA projects record 2017 U.S. yield:

https://www.agriculture.com/markets/newswire/grains-corn-hits-new-lows-after-usda-projects-record-2017-us-yield

“In its (November) monthly supply and demand report, the USDA raised its
corn crop forecast to 14.578 billion bushels, based on an
average yield of 175.4 bushels per acre, (BPA) which, if
realized, would top a record set last year. The soy crop was
seen at a record 4.425 billion bushels, on a yield of 49.5 bpa”

If this is worse than we thought it would be like today, when predicting what it would be like 25 years ago…………what exactly were the expectations?

The last 40 years has featured the best weather/climate and CO2 for life on this planet, especially for the biosphere, since the Medieval Warm Period……..that was this warm across much of the planet.

2015——-Hottest year ever! New records for crop production and booming biosphere/greening planet.

2016——New hottest year ever! New records for crop production and booming biosphere/greening planet.

2017—–Not quite as hot but CO2 still does its thing. New records for crop production and booming biosphere/greening planet.

The only place where widespread catastrophic climate change exists is on global climate model projections that simulate the atmosphere for the next century based on equations that represent a speculative theory. The global climate models are too warm. They can’t predict regional climate/weather even if they were adjusted down based on reality.

lee
November 13, 2017 5:24 pm

Ripples “Believe It Or Not”?

Neo
November 13, 2017 6:01 pm

They told me the “Yo-Kai” would destroy the world

observa
November 13, 2017 6:57 pm

You’d think with perpetually having to move the hands on the dud doomsday clock these clever bozos would have tried some of their own prescriptions. If not a reliable fossil fuelled mains powered clock then at least try their precious solar panel plus battery routine.

Art
November 13, 2017 7:30 pm

Oh, good grief! “OK, it didn’t happen the way we said it would 25 years ago but this time……..”

Luc Ozade
November 13, 2017 8:31 pm

This nonsense was obviously timed to coincide with COP 23.

RockyRoad
November 13, 2017 8:37 pm

The only climatic condition that would warrant such obviously misdirected alarm would be the end of the current interglacial period and resumption of the next glacial period. THAT would be of major concern; a slight amount of warming, which has happened several times in the recent geologic past is not worth a footnoted mention.

Asp
November 13, 2017 10:18 pm

That damned tipping point! The closer one gets, the further away it seems.

Eyal Porat
November 13, 2017 11:31 pm

Repent! The end is near!

Warren Blair
November 14, 2017 12:21 am

US Gov is still spreading alarmism via NASA and NOAA but moreover through the education system.
No balance has been brought to the science via Government initiatives.
Bannon has missed this one which I believe he’ll regret.
Unfortunately Bannon’s donors are semi-globalists so they’re soft on the AGW scam.
The left has a hook for young people and it’s working.
Trump is sitting on the fence with his agencies and departments.
It could cost the new ‘conservatives’ the next election (if not the one after).

sophocles
November 14, 2017 12:28 am

Oh. 15,000 climate scientists are running out of Grant Expenditure?
How sad …
Too Bad …
Never Mind.

Coeur de Lion
November 14, 2017 1:00 am

But I do worry about plastic.

Peta of Newark
November 14, 2017 1:30 am

Primary school science by NASA when they say CO2 causes greening.
Why?
Only in proper greenhouses, where all the other nutrients that plants need/use are in epic over-abundance and hence CO2 becomes the Liebig Limiter.
Let’s face it, no-one is gonna build a glasshouse, put plants in there and then starve them.
Outside in The Real World, CO2 is not the Leibig Limiting Nutrient.

Temperature is, isn’t it asks I, looking to the Distinguished Michael Mann for a response.

NASA rather blow their credibility with the caption on the banner image here – haven’t they got their ‘respectively’ the wrong-way-round?

And we cut them no slack as the ‘just an innocent typo’ cry goes up. OK?
They are patently not paying attention and when it comes to controlling The World and telling everybody how to live, eat, drive, make babies, keep warm etc etc, innocent mistakes like that are gonna kill billions.

Remember the Russian radar boss, celebrated recently (did he just pass away?) who unseeingly avoided WW3 by disregarding what his radar/computer told him about ‘incoming missiles’?

Dodged a bullet there but now we have Australian Weather Muppets reading temperatures every second of the day, disregarding low temps and blowing their horns whenever a high temp is recorded.

There is something to be genuinely worried about – some little minnion, watching a computer, somewhere, sometime, someplace is gonna set off a global train events that will not end happily – and here (CO2 induced warming) is the precedent

Peta of Newark
Reply to  Peta of Newark
November 14, 2017 1:34 am

computers eh (see the exact problem I was saying about?)

How did “unseeingly avoided WW3” get there – it was *supposed* to say *seemingly* blah blah…

paqyfelyc
Reply to  Peta of Newark
November 14, 2017 1:53 am

CO2 is not the Leibig Limiting Nutrient, indeed, but water often is, and more CO2 also means lower water loss. Without CO2 starving, C4 plants would just NOT exist, and in fact they appeared quite recently, when CO2 level plummeted, meaning more water loss to extract CO2 from atmosphere.

jclarke341
November 14, 2017 7:27 am

“They note that the overwhelming majority of the previously outlined threats remain and “alarmingly, most of them are getting far worse.”

This statement is basically true. We have the same THREATS as we had 25 years ago,and the THREATS are now worse than ever. The weather is normal, climate is just fine and the biosphere is steadily becoming more robust each year, but the THREATS, which are as empty as a box of climate model’s accurate projections, are worse than ever! The only part that I disagree with is the notion that these threats are alarming. Empty threats are never alarming, except to the uneducated.

bruce
November 14, 2017 8:12 am

hey, who writes the headline. Perfect, humor, sarcasm, understatement. But then anything is understatement when proclaiming the most bizarre is the norm.

May Bearpig
November 14, 2017 3:23 pm

I’m considering setting up an new organisation called “The union of REALLY concerned scientists” there will be strict entry criteria; mainly an ability to pay money into my paypal account. Members will get an email once a month explaining what they think about Climate change and stuff.

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