Guest essay by Eric Worrall
You would think after past embarrassments climate scientists would have learned not to trust model predictions that snowfall will soon be a thing of the past.
Global warming melts hopes of a white Christmas in Ireland
A leading climatologist has some bad news for snow-lovers
By Nick Bramhill
14:31, 12 NOV 2017
The prospect of Ireland waking up to a white Christmas is becoming more and more unlikely every year, according to a leading climatologist.
Prof John Sweeney said that Ireland can expect increasingly warmer winters due to global warming, resulting in less snowfall in the traditionally coldest months of the year.
…
He said: “The projections are for Ireland to warm by 1C by mid-Century, and we’re looking at both warmer summers and winters.
“We’ll always get snow in the uplands and mountains, but we’ll start to see less snow in the lowland areas in the coming years, and that means we’ll get fewer and fewer white Christmases. Let’s put it this way, if I were a betting man I wouldn’t be putting any money on there being snowfall on Christmas Day. It’s getting less likely each year.”
…
Read more: http://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/global-warming-melts-hopes-white-11509570
We no longer seem to have so many of the kind of special moments when scientists and advocates predict snow will end in 10 years, but even the middle of the century is drawing uncomfortably close to being falsifiable on a reasonable timescale.
Of course, climate scientists can trot out predictions that global warming will cause heavier snowfalls when the inevitable blockbuster winter hits, to demonstrate they were right all along.
Update (EW): h/t Michael Jankowski – bookies have just slashed the odds of an Irish White Christmas in Dublin, with experts predicting one of the coldest winters ever.
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It must be the great Irish Whiskey.
There is a better chance of snow in Adak Alaska, USA. Adak shares the same latitude as London.
A heads up to people if we in the SE UK don’t get enough rain this winter there is a good chance of drought orders and water use restrictions coming in the spring. Some reservoirs are currently at a third of capacity.
James Bull
All the years I lived in southern Ireland, Waterford, I never saw snow. Cold and chilling drizzle and rain, sure. Infinitely more miserable than snow.
The Irish are notoriously stubborn, which leads to frequent instances of failure to learn from experience.
I lived in North Devon during the 1970’s…
One year – I think it was 1974 – my neighbour mowed his lawn on Christmas Day…
Mind you, I think that was the same winter that we had six foot snow drifts further down the lane…!
UK set for 2 months of HEAVY SNOW and BLIZZARDS: NOAA issues rare La Nina winter advisory.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/879066/UK-snow-weather-forecast-La-Nina-weather-warning-BBC-weather-Met-Office-forecast-winter
This paper displays the same headlines every year so extreme caution required. It may get it nearly right one year like a broken clock. While solar activity supports meridional jet stream and oceans support a colder winter here. The above can never be forecast unless in short notice as cold and dry usually sums up most of the UK.
Jaakkokateenkorva – your earlier post of a map showing the averaged CO2 dispersion globally in your discussion with Nick Stokes raises a troubling question. It is one I have asked before of alarmists but never get a satisfactory reply from them. We know that most of the world’s heavy industries and cars are in the northern hemisphere, yet the map clearly shows most of the carbon dioxide concentrations to be equatorial. That is more in line with where you would expect it to be if it is being “naturally” produced than where it should be originating if it is all our fault. And if it is still there because of our activities, how did it get transported to the equatorial zone when the Earth’s heat pump sends energy towards the poles?
Using the same exquisite logic about CFCs which are/have been generated in the northern hemisphere somehow ending up over the South Pole and gobbling up all the ozone.
Actually, Ireland is a major driver of global warming in its role as a tax haven service to global companies as an end around to higher EU tax rates. Emissions are greater due to them.
The future’s not what it used to be – Irish aphorism
“The prospect of Ireland waking up to a white Christmas is becoming more and more unlikely every year, according to a leading climatologist.
Prof John Sweeney said that Ireland can expect increasingly warmer winters due to global warming, resulting in less snowfall in the traditionally coldest months of the year.”
While the UK is not quite the same as Ireland, this statement is not really supported with facts, unless just one difference can mean to imply being significant. The 2010’s could have another two white Christmas yet, keeping the same average of 5 with the 1970’s and 1980’s.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/snow/snow-at-christmas
For the UK since the 1960’s white Christmas occurred at least somewhere during the following years. It can be cold enough to snow in any location in October, so one particular day in December has no problem with the correct weather pattern. The difference between average monthly temperature between October and December is much larger than any global warming occurring so far and more than twice realistically guessed in future.
The 2000’s showed less like the 1970’s and 1980’s and only a difference of one, but despite global warming the 1990’s matched the 1960’s at least in number.
1960’s – 1961, 1962, 1963, 1964, 1965, 1966 and 1968 (7)
1970’s – 1970, 1974, 1976, 1978 and 1979 (5)
1980’s – 1980, 1981, 1984, 1985, and 1986 (5)
1990’s – 1990, 1994, 1993, 1995, 1996, 1998 and 1999 (7)
2000’s – 2000, 2001, 2004, and 2009 (4)
2010’s – 2010, 2013, 2014 and 2015 (4) so far this decade.
2020’s – (7) ?
There seems to be a pattern here with one decade after every two recording more white Christmas. Could the 2020’s bring a more frequent number back gain?
Confused by the hat tip which reads “bookies have just slashed the odds of an Irish White Christmas in Dublin, with experts predicting one of the coldest winters ever.”
Does that mean they now think it is less likely to have a White Christmas despite predictions of a cold winter? That seems counter-intuitive. (That situation actually happens in the Lake Erie snowbelt because a cold-enough winter freezes over the lake, leading to a drop in precipitation. In other words, really really cold but now dry. But that scenario wouldn’t seem to ever apply to the island of Ireland.)
Or am I misinterpreting what they mean by “slashed the odds”. Does that statement somehow mean that the odds against it have gone down rather than meaning that the odds of it have gone down?
Epilogue
In Thailand – I don’t want to complain but it is 30C and we have to put ice in our beer to keep it cold.
Walking on the beach in the sun, thinking of the significant solar influence on climate and the (regrettably) negligible impact of increasing atm. CO2 on climate.
Summary:
Warm is good. Warmer is better. CO2 is good. More CO2 is better. End of story.
I live in Cork City, Ireland. The temperature last night was -1C. The night before -2. Need I say more?
First snow in November in Cork (southern coastal area) in my lifetime (40 plus years) just occurred, 24/11/2017.