Full disclosure: I own an electric car, and I think they are useful for city transportation. However, having owned one for a decade, I can say that it hasn’t been practical or cost-effective. John Hardy believes they are the future, I’ll let you, the reader, decide. – Anthony Watts
The demise of the Western auto industry: Part 2 – the problem
By John Hardy
Part 1 of this series here, expressed the view that regardless of “the environment”, Electric Vehicles (EVs) are poised to inflict a massive disruption on the automotive industry, and outlined the strengths of the technology and some of the reasons that it is happening now.
In Part 2, I outline what I see as the main issues for Western automakers. They need to wake up and smell the coffee: the history of technology is strewn with examples of once-great companies that failed to adapt to a technology advance and went to the wall. Traditional Western automakers may just do the same. They appear to have failed to realise that gearing up for EVs is not just business as usual with a different drivetrain. In particular they have until very recently shown no sign of thinking about fast charge, sourcing the cells that go into batteries, the dealer network or maintenance.
Fast charge
First of all, fast charge*. Most privately owned cars spend most of the time parked, and most of their journeys are short (in the UK private cars average around 21 miles per day)[1], but are occasionally called on to go cross country (think commuting in the week and visiting granny on occasional weekends). The comparable figure in the US is about 30 miles per day [2]. Overnight charging at home handles most driving.
Fast charge capability is however critical to cross-country driving; and most people require this capability, even if they don’t use it much. The fast charge standards supported by the major Western automakers have been inadequate (pitiful power levels), coverage spotty and use cumbersome. By contrast Tesla built their own supercharger network with twice the power levels of most public stations: and the sat nav in the car knows their location. Tesla cars are internet connected and do over-the-air software updates like laptops, so presumably the fast charge locations the car knows about stay up to date. If the major automakers do not take ownership of the fast charge issue they will remain at a disadvantage compared with those who do. Relying on a publically-funded infrastructure won’t do. Generic commercial charging stations after the style of the present auto fuel infrastructure may become viable on busy routes (with profit coming from the cake and coffee sold to drivers sitting for the 20 minutes while their cars charge) but most charging will be at home, and with electricity so cheap it may never be very attractive commercially.
*There is some terminology confusion here. By “fast charge” I mean charging from a DC source at 40Kw upwards. This is also sometimes called “rapid charge”.
Cells
Next, cells (a battery is composed of many cells wired in series like the battery in an electric toy is composed of a few AA cells in series). In 2013, world output of lithium ion cells was said to be a little over 30 Gigawatt-hours (Gw-hr) per year [3]. A Gw-hr is a measure of energy. A high powered household device like an electric kettle or electric fan heater might use 3 Kilowatts (Kw). Leave it on for an hour and you have burned 3 Kilowatt-hours (Kw-hrs). If you do half an hour of vacuuming with a 1 kW vacuum cleaner, you will have used half a Kw-hrs. A Gigawatt is a million kW, so if you do the maths, if you took all the lithium battery output of the entire world for 2013, it would (in theory and neglecting losses) power a million 3Kw electric heaters for ten hours, or ten thousand for 41 days (a thousand hours).
More pertinently, an EV burns 1 Kw-hr every 3 – 4 miles; so a 300 mile range EV would need 75 – 100 Kw-hrs of cells, so world output of lithium ion batteries in 2013 would at best be enough for around 400,000 EVs with a 300 mile range. Worldwide car production in 2016 was probably about 72 million. To electrify all of them to that range would require (again ball-park figures) roughly 200 times the 2013 production of lithium ion batteries.
The majors seem to be waking up (arguably too late and too slowly) to the fact that the supply of cells for battery packs is an issue. In June 2017 Ulrich Eichhorn of VW, went public with a statement that the whole VW group (Audi, Seat etc.) would need 200 Gw-hr of battery cell production by 2025 [4]. They have not announced any definite plans for sourcing these cells. Meanwhile, Tesla have once again thought ahead of the pack. They broke ground on their gigafactory in Nevada in 2014 with the initial target of 35 Gw-hr per year capacity: at the time this was roughly equal to existing global output from all manufacturers (love him or hate him, Elon Musk can’t be accused of timidity). More gigafactories are planned.
The problems for the traditional majors are illustrated by the GM Bolt. The Bolt is a 200+ mile range EV, which is seen by many as competition for Tesla’s new Model 3. However the Bolt uses cells from LG Chem (a Korean company). LG produce cells for the Bolt in a plant in Michigan which has a capacity projected to rise to around 3 Gw-hr in the next year or two [5]. Even if we assume that all these cells go into Chevy Bolts that is going to constrain Bolt sales to a fraction of what Tesla can achieve: 3 Gw-hrs is enough for about 50,000 Bolts. Tesla’s stated intention is to ramp up to ten times as many Model 3s.
For the next few decades at least the traditional majors need to think of cell production the same way they think of engine plants and put serious money ($billions) into it. There are trade-offs in the chemistry and packaging of cells that potentially affect battery management, charging, heating and cooling of the pack etc. This in turn has an impact on the cost and performance of the car.
Sales and maintenance
The standard sales channel for new conventional piston engine cars is via dealers, and the dealers do much of the maintenance, especially on new cars. The profit on the sale of new cars is low; the dealers make much of their money on maintenance [6]. This model probably won’t work with EVs, because they need so much less maintenance; no oil and filter changes, no exhaust replacements, no intake air filters, no spark plugs, no cam belts, even fewer brake pad and disc changes because of regenerative braking. Add to that the preference of the rising generation to do everything on line, plus the move to disintermediation across the commercial world [7], and the dealer model is probably dead.
There is another potential dealer-related issue for traditional automakers where the dealer is selling a mix of EVs and conventional cars. If a savvy dealer has two cars on the lot, one a high maintenance conventional piston engine car, and one a low maintenance EV, which vehicle is that dealer going to push [8]? Tesla have no dealers; they sell direct on the web and have in-house service centres (they also do software upgrades wirelessly and don’t do conventional advertising)
The Chinese aren’t just putting in lots of new coal fired power stations; they are developing EVs and lithium battery capacity. One forecast suggests that Chinese production of lithium ion battery production will increase by a factor of five between 2016 and 2020, making it easily the largest producer worldwide [9]
China’s indigenous auto industry is also flexing its muscles. For a brief period in May the production car lap record at the Nurburgring was held by the Nio EP9 (Figure 1) [10]. It actually held the record for just two weeks and then a McLaren took the record. With a hybrid.
If this doesn’t make the CEOs of the traditional Western automakers wake up screaming at 2:00 a.m. then they lack imagination. Here is a company few in the West have heard of, from a country with almost no previous performance car pedigree, strolling onto one of Europe’s most iconic circuits and beating all-comers with a pure electric car.
Finally consider this statistic: plug in hybrid and pure EV sales in China in 2013 were under 20,000. In the US in the same year sales were about five times greater: close to 100,000. By 2016, US sales had reached about 160,000: a respectable percentage increase, but less than half the sales in China. Over 350,000 EVs were sold there in 2016 (Figure 2).
A lot of the growth in China was a result of subsidies which were reduced in 2017 [11], leading to a slowing of growth in sales in Q1 of 2017, but in one sense that hardly matters: the capacity is being developed. No US or European automaker (apart from Tesla) could get anywhere near 350,000 units even if they wanted to.
In conclusion
Much of Western economic activity relates to cars: apart from the automakers themselves there are all the parts suppliers, and much of Big Oil is focussed on fuel for road vehicles. EVs will have a big impact on all this. It may already be too late for the Western automakers: they should have been breaking ground on cell production and rolling out fast charge years ago. But we are where we are, and maybe some will survive. If they don’t, our children will inherit even more of an industrial wasteland than is coming their way already.
In part 3 of this series I will take a look at several misconceptions about EVs
References
[1] https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/632857/nts0901.ods 7,800 miles per year for privately owned cars = 21 m.p.d. Company cars 18,900 = 51 m.p.d. but they are a small percentage of the total number of cars
[2] https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics/2013/ dataset VM1. 11,244 miles per year is about 30 miles per day
[3] https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/gigafactory
[4] http://europe.autonews.com/article/20170710/COPY/307149996/industry-needs-40-gigafactories-vw-says
[5] https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/lg-racing-beat-tesla-first-gigafactory-us-chris-smedley
[6] https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimhenry/2012/02/29/the-surprising-ways-car-dealers-make-the-most-money-off-of-you/#1661b601e6fd
[7] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disintermediation
[8] “Chevrolet currently has about 3,000 dealers in the U.S. but aside from some dealers in California and a few other locations, most seem pretty averse to selling plug-in vehicles. Sales people often don’t understand them and try to steer customers to other products that might have higher margins.” From: https://www.forbes.com/sites/samabuelsamid/2017/07/11/living-with-the-chevrolet-bolt-keep-it-in-low-sell-it-hard/#109472a41c5d
[9] http://www.visualcapitalist.com/china-leading-charge-lithium-ion-megafactories/
[10] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c4MRydmz86E
[11] http://www.theicct.org/blogs/staff/subsidy-fraud-reforms-china-ev-market
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Seems to me that just standardizing batteries so that they can be quickly swapped is a better solution than trying to solve the “fast charge” problem. Surely that would make for more efficient refueling.
1) Think about how long that would take and the infrastructure required to pull that off.
2) Only a fool would exchange their new battery for one that is years older and at much lesser capacity.
That’s not completely impossible. Just check the overall remaining capacity and the state and age of the battery and then refund money if it is better than the one that comes in in exchange or charge money if it is worse than that.
You are assuming that such an analysis is possible. Plus you are relying on the honesty of the dealer in reporting it accurately.
They are just trying to standardize the plugs, CSS and CSS2 protocol, as mentioned above. There are not going to be stadardized battery packs like A, AA or AAA…evah.
There was lots of talk about that early in the game but nothing materialized because there are too many obstacles to overcome.
If electric vehicles are not subsidized with tax payer dollar$ and are fairly taxed to pay their share of road construction and maintenance costs, they will need no dissembling, disingenuous ‘defen$e’.
Free markets and informed, rational consumer are very good at deciding what provides the greatest utility for dollars expended!
Although I have found this series to be interesting, I tend to tune out when pejorative terms like “much of Big Oil” are used. Sound more like a slick political presentation than a technical discussion.
Two big problems not addressed by the author:
1. A gas or diesel engine gives you 100% performance through the last drop of fuel. But a battery-powered car gets more and more feeble until it just won’t go anymore. People hate that. I don’t want a car that can go 300 miles on a charge, but for the last 100 miles, it can’t climb a hill or keep up with traffic on I-95.
2. There is not enough generating capacity in America to energize millions of electric cars. We can’t build coal plants. We can’t build nukes. There is no more hydro power available. Windmills and solar panels simply cannot carry the freight. That leaves natural gas as the sole available energy source for your “electric” cars. So the real outcome is that cars will be switching from gasoline (and some diesel) to natural gas. That being the case, are electric cars really better than burning natural gas directly in the car?
pkhsinc – I’ll bear that in mind. We will need aviation fuel for the forseeable future: an honourable profession but EVs are a threat to part of their business and they sometimes regrettably act accordingly and not always honestly
Bro.steve. Your point 1 is not my experience of driving an EV. Are you extrapolating from milk fliats and golf carts?
John Hardy, you asked, “Your point 1 is not my experience of driving an EV. Are you extrapolating from milk fliats and golf carts?”
No, from reading early on-line reviews of a Tesla. The driver was a little too aggressive in his driving, he said, and sucked the battery flat too soon. His description may have been misleading, but left the distinct impression that the performance was pretty sick for the last few miles. If that’s a mistaken impression, that would be good.
FYI, I work for a power company, and we would love, Love, LOVE to see EVs become successful. I just don’t see battery technology ever becoming truly competitive with gasoline short of a revolutionary breakthrough in energy storage density. If Americans were being powered everywhere by batteries, and some guy invented gasoline just this morning, it would be proclaimed as the greatest energy miracle since the Almighty created sunshine.
“are electric cars really better than burning natural gas directly in the car?”
You’ll know they are when they’ll sell more (without subsidies)
Too bad that the US makes it almost impossible to buy natural gas-powered cars, which are so common in South America.
I suspect it’s because they are hard to tax. You can refuel them from your household cooking gas source.
“I suspect it’s because they are hard to tax. You can refuel them from your household cooking gas source.”
But aren’t natural-gas-powered fuel tanks pressurized? If so, special equipment is needed to fill them.
gas powered car are explosive, fuel powered are not
Big manufacturers realize EVs are a niche vehicle and are only putting enough effort into the market to say “me too”. 1% if the market after almost a decade doesn’t excite them. Get real.
Big manufacturers are putting massive efforts into EVs. You couldn’t be more wrong. http://mashable.com/2017/10/03/electric-car-development-plans-ford-gm/#pnsgfTqvkiqx
The car-makers’ decision to invest heavily in EV manufacturing was made when it was assumed that policy-makers in the U.S. would continue to be gung-ho for CO2 reduction measures and for increasingly tough CAFE requirements for IC engines. Since that was a wrong guess, they may now be throwing good money after bad.
“The car-makers’ decision to invest heavily in EV manufacturing was made when it was assumed that policy-makers in the U.S. would continue to be gung-ho for CO2 reduction measures and for increasingly tough CAFE requirements for IC engines. Since that was a wrong guess, they may now be throwing good money after bad.”
GM sells more cars in China than in the US. China has made it clear that EVs are their future. If you want to sell cars in China, they had better be EVs. Europe is doing the same as well. Those two markets, plus the folks in the US that want EVs regardless of what Trump says or does, are more than enough demand to justify the EV investments car makers are making.
In China – like most countries – the electric grid is owned by the State (country) so those owning EVs and charging them are paying directly to the government. In the USA our electric is from companies that in part are subsidised by government, but are mostly capitalism/corporatism.
We have a great local bus service which takes me to many of the places I would typically want to go to.
It also goes to the local train station enabling me to readily travel further afield.
However, neither method can take me to most of the other places I would want to visit, some like Dartmoor up to 30 miles away, others like visiting my son in Cambridge, some 250 miles or going on holiday or for the convenience at night or in bad weather.
So what I need is not a SECOND car but a reliable FIRST car.
That means it must be able to go the distances I need, with passengers, luggage, wipers, heater, radio and headlights on, or aircon in the summer.
It needs to go up steep hills and not involve me in lengthy halts to recharge it en route.
Fortunately I could charge it in my driveway but many properties round here do not have this facility.
I can also buy a reliable second hand petrol car for well under £5000. EV’s are much more expensive new, drop dramatically in price after a couple of years (so a terrible investment) and need arrangements made for the battery replacement and for a charging point.
All in all no EV I know of can fulfil my criteria for a FIRST car at the present time.
Probably hybrids are the way to go for the next decade or two rather than pure electric.(goodness knows where all the electricity is supposed to come from anyway)
tonyb
“Probably hybrids are the way to go for the next decade or two rather than pure electric.” This is what makes sense to me, is a dedicated micro ICE generator. Solves a lot of current problems on every front, including smaller batteries.
Uum..so when are we going to see electric D11 Cats ?
They’ll just start with a D10…ye of little faith!
🙂
My older D4 Cat is only about 77 Hp, so entirely conceivable that one of those EV electric motors would work. The electric motor would just drive the torque convertor, and the gearing down is what does the work. But the diesel engine is just working fine, so I will probably skip electrifying my bulldozer.
How bout an electric mining truck? Say 400 ton? It would probably have to recharge after every load or carry 200 tons of batteries.
So EVs are not a candidate for dump trucks. That’s fine.
Little voice pipes up..
The headline says:
Is there really going to be a demise of cars. Surely it’s a demise of the internal combustion engine.
Cars of some sort will surely go on?
And is that why this (is running) and Pt 1 ran to such huge discussions.
The word ‘demise’ threatens boys with one of their main ways of attracting a mate. Of getting laid basically.
Because, size does matter when it comes to ‘romance’ and, girls cannot do as their prehistoric sisters did, measure a man’s ([potential) fathering ability by the amount of food he could bring home.
They need another measure and if an F50 pickup doesn’t convey the idea of ‘size’ and ‘quantity of stuff’, what does? Best Selling auto do we hear endlessly on here. There’s your reason. Size Matters.
Isn’t the internet great, allows so many people to say so many words without directly mentioning what is going on in their minds.
Its not looking good for mankind, is it really?
An F50 pickup. Is that like an AK-247?
Closer to an AK-7
Convoy driving behind a snow-plough is common in Norway in the winter. Vehicles assemble at a collection point where there is a fuel station. You have to have winter tyres, full tank, proper clothing etc., and keep up with the convoy when it sets off. Some convoy managers are apparently refusing to take EVs as they can’t perform. It’s not clear if this is a range issue (diminished by waiting with heaters on) or drivers trying to go too slow to eke out the battery’s charge, or the battery simply not coping with the demands of going uphill with lights, wipers and heater on.
Whatever the reasons, probably all three, this a practical reaction to the fact that current EVs are not good enough for the stresses of remote winter roads, as so many here have pointed out.
EV’s will be fine in town, IF you have a private parking/charging space wherever your car spends its ‘down time’.
But then in town, you could always walk, cycle, or use public transport.
You could also use the only EV that is actually proven in the market: a golf cart!
Without any government subsidies, or massive funding of battery research, golf carts serve very well as neighborhood transportation.
kent
Not at all. The UK has had electric milk floats for delivery floats since the 1930’s and very effective they are to.
Mind you, electric golf carts could be rather sinister. Do you remember the TV series ‘The Prisoner?’
tonyb
Also electric fork-lifts.
How old is this article? Because it would appear the author isn’t up to date on the state of Tesla. Which is to say, pretty poor. They are incredibly far behind schedule with “normal” production of the Model 3 (normal being cars that contain no hand fabricated parts). Beyond that they’re production limited by their paint shop (that’s almost funny). Tesla’s battery plant is a mess at the moment, and the head of the department quietly left over a month ago. They’re burning through cash like it’s nobody’s business and have no doubt already spent all the deposit (i.e. profit) money of hundreds of thousands of Model 3s, which they currently are physically incapable of building and delivering.
For them to remain an automaker in the long term they desperately need the head start they had over most “conventional” automakers in building EVs. The problem is, that by the time they sort out Model 3 production issues everyone else will have comparable EVs available for sale.
And if anyone wants to know about long term expenses for a Tesla Model S I’d recommend checking out Car and Driver’s 40,000 mile review. The car was far from inexpensive to maintain.
minor glitches, if you are a believer everything is still awesome
here is the link https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/2015-tesla-model-s-p85d-ev-long-term-test-wrap-up
Hardy is right, of course, adoption of EVs depends almost entirely on the battery problems (production and a needed breakthrough to double cell capacity and halve charging times) and the societal infrastructure needed to support transferring of all the energy used to move automobiles from fossil fuels (gasoline/diesel) to electrical — that’s a lot of energy and it has to come from somewhere and be easily and conveniently delivered to where it is needed — peoples garages and charging stations conveniently located.
These problems are not trivial and will not solve themselves.
Ask yourself:
How many convenient corner automotive propane fueling stations are in your neighborhood?
What would your local gas station look like if every car took 20-30 minutes to fuel?
How many of your friends would be willing to wait around for 30 minutes while their car charged at a public charging station?
May be a new market for itinerant Vaudevilles? “The 30 minute goon show” or “The charge of the Light Brigade” or even a 30-minute quickie brothel?
No Name ==> You have seen “Gas Station TV @GasStationTV” — maybe we’ll have a streaming Charging Station Channel for those sitting in their cars while charging…..
Nope it will ultimately be
Home charging (most likely)
@work charging
Just like most electric signs, and many of the lights on interstate highways now have small PV solar arrays, so to will parking lots have a plug for each space — most likely connected to a PV array on the lot covering or building roof
That might work, provided no more than 2 or 3 EV’s show up needing to be charged.
PS, I love how the EV fans are always imaging ways other people can spend money to make their lives easier.
What other people are spending money?
If an employer does not offer free EV charging they are not competitive — free market economics.
1 parking spot is ~18 square meters — which in the Southwest is 116 KWH/day – take a 12% efficiency factor for panels and inverter if it’s not a DC draw and you get 14kWh of — enough to drive 50 miles home– from each and every parking spot.
Mark — do you do maths? or are you just anti progress?
@ur momisugly Mark
admittedly the rest of the US averages about 6-7 kWh per parking space, but building integrated PV, and UTES combined can get the job done for about 85% of CONUS.
Not to mention that at 35-40% market penetration, every big box retailer will have free charging — heck — the average Super Walmart could power a lot of their served area with PV panels on the roof and the parking lot.
Come on, do the real math. You made the claim, you make the numbers work.
How many cars over a full day (6 hours of solar power) can a WalMart-sized building power?
Latitude 44 north. On March 22. On June 22. On Sept 22. On Dec 22.
Now remember, if you are assuming tracking solar panels, say so.
If you are assuming fixed solar panels, say so.
If you are assuming seasonally moved solar panels, say so. Say how mauch money you’re putting on that roof.
Parking lot? You cannot even pay for simple, non-electronic, shades/raincovers over the cars to get a return on your investment! Much less far more expensive solar collector arrays, wiring (easy to steal), electronics, and the charger stations.
How much per charging station, installed and ready to plug in?
At a “profit” of 4% after taxes, how much sales do you need to pay off 10 charging stations?
You made the
I usually let my car make my employment choices for me. Makes sense.
@ur momisugly tsk tsk
Lots of people base their employment decisions on the transportation benefits their prospective employer offers, like:
close to the Metro
paid Metro Cards
company shuttle to/from closest metro station
monthly stipend for use of mass transit
Yes — these are benefits that many Washington DC companies offer to compete for employees
Go to Lincoln, Nebraska and wait for the tram.
The local gas station would look like a Starbucks on steroids with people quaffing coffee and noshing cake whilst waiting for a bell to ring or their phone to receive a message to say the car was charged and to move it quickly as there was a long queue.
tonyb
I understand that a Tesla is capable of driving w/o driver. So unplug it automatically and let it drive to a free parking space in the vicinity. Then the internet connection coupled with GPS steps in and tells the driver where he can pick it up. I just hope it is not going to be another geocaching event.
Tony ==> Yes, my thought exactly — remember the gasoline lines during the 1973 gasoline crisis?
Won’t get that far though, people will not flock to EV ownership if they will have to wait in long lines for charge-ups at the places offering the service — and be late to work, late for a date, etc. American’s just won’t do it.
I suspect that many two-car families might replace one with an EV, the local kid carting car — grocery store car — Mom’s car. Maybe even an EV van in suburbia. But ONLY if they can reliably charge the car overnight in the garage without spending too much on new electrical connections, re-wiring, new electrical drops to the house, etc.
You won’t find many in rural America — or in the America that wants 4WD SUVs in every driveway (even though they never leave the city limits).
That is a particularly ridiculous and myopic post.
Did you actually try hard to come up with such a failed simile?
If one had to posit what a commercial charging station would look like it would have 40 -50 charging docks, served by underground ultracapacitors instead of underground fuel tanks.
The Vehicles charged per hour would be comparable to the same rate as wheicles per full fill up at 16 pump petrol stations today.
My my my — how people forget science when they are blinded by clinging to what they believe won’t work.
“As of 2013 commercial specific energies range from around 0.5 to 15 Wh/kg. For comparison, an aluminum electrolytic capacitor stores typically 0.01 to 0.3 Wh/kg, while a conventional lead-acid battery stores typically 30 to 40 Wh/kg and modern lithium-ion batteries 100 to 265 Wh/kg.”
Now what was that you were saying about science?
9 times out of 10 – if not more – people will charge at home. Many companies will offer it at work. You really don’t think companies that are going 100% renewable for their energy consumption will roll this out? So the demand for public charging slots per EV will be roughly 10% of what it would be in an ICE world.
karl
errr…some of us have a sense of humour. Perhaps it might be helpful if you allowed yours to emerge a little more?
Presumably these 40 dock charging stations will mostly be new as they would take up a vast amount of space? 16 pump petrol stations are a fairly rare beast due to space restrictions. A 40 dock one would need loads of space, not generally available in towns and still don’t get away from the fact that each person would have to wait x number of minutes for their fill, irrespective of whether turnover of the whole site is as you say.
tonyb
Lets do a calculation on the back of the envelope: a complete refill of Diesel or petrol takes six minutes, from unscrewing the tank cap until leaving. Recharging an empty battery takes up to 30 minutes, five times more. plugs are needed, then. Sixteen nozzles taken as petrol station average multiplied by five equals eighty (80). Quite a lot of space required and quite a lot of people on the lot. Plus the cars in the queue, waiting for the hurricane…
chris
Karl raised an interesting aspect, as do you. In the UK some 50% of properties do not have direct access to their own driveway/parking space. As for charging at work, 95% of all companies have less than 10 people and many do not have parking spaces.
I am not against ev’s at all, but as I wrote above I need it to be a first car and not a second car with all that implies in terms of range and capabilities. I am also concerned as to where the electricity is actually going to be generated as in the UK at least we are close to capacity
tonyb
NomNomen
Thanks that real world calculation. Which makes my humourous suggestion of the need for a coffee shop on such sites seem necessary as drivers are not going to hang around doing nothing. 80 cars waiting is also something that requires loads of space.
So perhaps an answer is to site such facilities at locations where people habitually spend an hour or so anyway? This implies such places as retail parks and supermarkets.
The trick would be in ensuring that cars do not outstay their allotted time. Service stations alongside motorways are also obvious candidates where typical stays are around 30 minutes or more.
Perhaps dedicated petrol stations as we currently know them will need to evolve to accommodate ev’s and they might become rare beasts in space constrained towns and migrate to such locations as I mention above.
tonyb
You are very welcome.
I’ve had similar ideas before:
Non Nomen November 7, 2017 at 11:09 am
May be a new market for itinerant Vaudevilles? “The 30 minute goon show” or “The charge of the Light Brigade” or even a 30-minute quickie brothel?
@ur momisugly tsk tsk
Ultra-capacitors are fast discharge specific —
Most large gas stations have 200,000 plus gallons in 3 or 4 tanks tanks — that is the equivalent of approximately 1 million pounds
Using 500,000 kg of ultracapacitors would give you a million of something like this BCAP3400 P285 K048
3.84 Wh storage max power 14,000 W/kg – weight 520 grams
http://www.maxwell.com/images/documents/ProductMatrix_3000489_3.pdf
a max power discharge of ~7 GW
and a storage capacity for burst of 3.84 MWh — enough to charge 1100 30kWh vehicles, before that array needs to be recharged
That is easily do-able today — but like I’ve repeatedly stated, — there will be plenty of places to charge your vehicle
Home, school, office, shopping — or like smart cars — use it and drop it off
The author should disclose his deep involvement in electric vehicle technology business.
He’s not a disinterested party.
LinkedIn:
“John Hardy
Director and Chief Technology Officer
Company NameIntercal(UK) Ltd
Dates Employed Jul 2014 – Present Employment Duration 3 yrs 5 mos
Location West Midlands
Intercal (UK) has IP in the area of Battery Management Systems and extends the evidence base by an ongoing programme of testing part funded by an EU grant”
And he has a book touting EVs:
ICE Free: Electric vehicle technology for builders and converters Paperback – February 22, 2012
by Mr John Hardy (Author)
“A final chapter makes the economic and social case for EVs and gleefully demolishes a number of myths about the problems of electric drive.”
https://www.amazon.com/ICE-Free-Electric-technology-converters/dp/0957149506
He lives on an island. He has a limited world view.
I agree he should disclose he works in the industry. Do you have specific issues with the points he has made?
The issue is Hardy’s blatant bias for his unicorn battery dream machines. Readers should know that he has a financial/career stake in the electric vehicle battery industry.
If you know up front that the writer has a financial interest in the electric vehicle battery business, you are better able to evaluate his opinions.
Readers assume neutrality if a writer does not disclose his personal/financial biases up front.
Failure to disclose a financial interest in the industry is a blow to credibility.
He did not disclose it himself, he had been disclosed which is a pretty embarrassing outing. But he is far fom Mikey Mann and his notorious hockeyschtick, where disclosure of methods and data did not even happen when ordered by a Canadian court. Thank you for your perseverance, Dr Ball!
“The issue is Hardy’s blatant bias for his unicorn battery dream machines. ”
Yeah, you’re right and the world’s largest car makers are wrong. Here are their plans: http://mashable.com/2017/10/03/electric-car-development-plans-ford-gm/#pnsgfTqvkiqx
Oh, and China, where, for example, GM sells more cars than in the US, they’ve said this: https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/9/13/16293258/ev-revolution
hybrid gas/electric vehicles are the only solution. Fully EV cars are a 2nd car, commuter car solution. They are horrible for long trips beyond 200 miles. You cannot expect a stall to be readily open along I-5. Many California local Tesla owners drive their Model S/X to the local I-5 fast charger, and go shopping, leaving their car for several hours longer than needed in the stall, blocking others.
Modern hybrids have regenerative braking. The brakes last as long as any fully EV car. Commuting around town at low speed the battery does most work, while the gas engine helps accelerate and shuts off when the car stops or the wheels need little torque.
The battery pack replacement cost is 1/3 to 1/4 that of a full EV battery pack. There is no need to tether the car to a fossil fuel powered electricity grid.
Fully EV cars are bad joke as a replacement for liquid fueled ICE cars unless you have lots of cash to burn.
Micro hybrids with a small battery pack to drive accessories. Once you harvest the start/stop idle losses and regenerative breaking the gains from full electric just aren’t warranted. Sure, the electric powertrain is superior in just about every way to ICE engines (except for waste heat in cold climates), but batteries are so much worse than gas/diesel that is still isn’t close.
Tesla has to stay in business to reap the rewards of its temerity. When the US taxpayer in no longer being fleeced by Elon Musk (that smell again) what will happen to Tesla shares?
https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=tesla+shate+price&rlz=1C1CHFX_en-GBGB547GB547&oq=tesla+shate+price&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l5.7836j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
Slight error in the article. EV electric battery cells are connected in BOTH series and parallel so both the voltage and current outputs can be achieved. Connecting cells to series increases the voltage but does not increase the current capacity. Connecting cells in parallel increases the current capacity but does not increase the voltage.
I see no defense needed. What I see is a battle to prevent the government wasting our tax dollars on them. Let the producers produce and sell what they want and if their in the business of making a profit they will produce what the consumers want. There will probably always be those that are willing to pay for a less cost effective and capable electric vehicle and I say let them do it. Just don’t force me, and the vast majority of consumers to do so nor to pay for any of it. If it is economically viable it will stand on it’s own. And BTW, I’m against any politician anywhere that tries to skew the market by giving advantages to those that buy what THEY want them to. IOW special HOV lane access for “inherently low emissions vehicles” and preferred parking at government facilities for the same have got to go.
You do realize that the tax credit disappears after 200,000 vehicles per manufacturer are sold — hence why Prius hybrids don’t get the tax credit — and soon neither will Teslas
You do realize that there should NEVER have been any form of subsidization. If the market wanted it, then there would have been no need for it. At no time should a dime of tax payers money been used for any way to give advantage to one type of propulsion over another.
You do realize that those aren’t the only subsidies.
Apply your statement to the US Nuclear Power Industry, every single Plant operating in the US was subsidized by a production tax credit, cheap fuel produced by and for the US Government, loan subsidies, loan guarantees etc etc etc.
That is issue attracted so many comments and debate should tell us all something about the average person’s love of their automobile (their horse.) One of the great miracles of of the 20th Century was the gasoline/ diesel distribution system. We transport one of the most explosive materials all over the country. We is very few accidents and rarely a catastrophic accident. Replacing that system will take a large expenditure by someone. In this day and age it probably means the taxpayers. What happened to hydrogen fuel cells? Seems like a far more viable option. It would also allow energy storage at distance electricity production sites instead of batteries. “Fueling stations” could be operated by wind or solar. The only problem has been the Hindenburg effect which could certainly be overcome by good marketing. Mercedes for a while had a comparison of a hydrogen car and a gasoline car both catching fire. The hydrogen car basically went poof and was soon out. The gasoline car basically “melted.” Somewhere back when I was digging in on a regular basis several people had applied for solid state storage.
“explosive materials”
Edwin has been watching too many TV shows. Flammable yes, explosive no.
Propane and methane can explode, hydrogen detonates, anhydrous ammonia is extremely toxic.
Everything has risk. You can drown in water, but water can not be used fuel.
Gasoline will explode! It is not just flammable. That is how an internal combustion engine works. Atomize it, hit it with a spark and boom. Years ago in a Florida city a tank truck got out of control on a very hot day, crashed, gasoline was sprayed everywhere, vaporized and boom it exploded. Tank trucks early in the game, early 20th Century, both caught fire and exploded. Air-gasoline mixture has to be about right.
The interesting thing about BEV and PV advocates it there is a lack understand of work, power, and electrical power.
Let me start by talking about the Kiddie fire extinguisher recall. I have 4 new ones on the way. I have fire extinguishers because I worked in the power industry and was in the US navy.
I am a trained firefighter. Electrical fires are an expected hazard. Why? Simple as pie.
Power = IE, that is current times voltage. Or P = I^2R that is current squared times resistance.
So the flow of electricity creates (waste) heat and heat starts fires.
This why LED are so cool (not literally). I measured a LED I installed in a China cabinet O built. The metal holder was 110 degrees F. I also measure two 12 v lights in the motor at the light socket. 130 degrees F. for the standard automobile incandescent bulb that you would buy at an auto parts store and 90 degrees F cooler for the LED in the same type socket. The biggest TV I have ever owned uses 30 watts and is also the cheapest with the best picture.
Great, sales through the roof.
Of course there is no analogy for application where doing work are involved, for example pumping water or driving a motor home up a hill.
Using a rule of thumb, doubling the speed of doing work increases the power required by the cube, or 8 times the power requirement. This presents an interesting design problem. It will take a mechanical and electrical engineer to figure it out.
If you BEV is a bicycle going 20 mph with pedal assist going a short distance, not much weight or fire risk is added added. Same for something a golf cart.
“Electric Vehicles (EVs) are poised to inflict a massive disruption on the automotive industry…”
This not going to happen because it will add 2000 pounds and $40k. Economy of scale will not make basic engineering requirements gpo away.
When it comes to fire safety, BEV may be doomed. Electrical things that can start a house fire like hot water heater have to meet one in a million safety criteria. Fire marshall will start banning BEV chargers that do not meet safety criteria.
The Kiddie recall only involved one possible fatality. A man was trapped in a burning car and the fire extinguisher did not work.
I am not suggesting the ice does not have safety issues. I am suggesting that BEV will have to meet the same standards. This will put the BEV out of business.
My take is that a pure EV is not the way to go, yet, unless you only need a small runabout town car that only has a range of 40-50 miles and can be recharged overnight via a 120 VAC 15 Amp plug. Something that weighs under 1500 pounds and costs maybe $15K, and will work with all existing current infrastructure. That would be a place to start for a pure EV for wide adoption in the near future. That is what cities like Manila are planning for, since you literally can’t breath the air from all the 2 stoke tuk-tuks. Those are being electrified as we speak. I will buy one of these smaller runabout EV’s as a 3rd vehicle, since I still need my diesel 4×4 Jeep for long haul highway use, and a dually 1 ton Ram diesel for work/pleasure RV.
For a full sized sedan car like the Model S, it should have an option for a micro ICE dedicated generator to be able to supply electricity for charging for extended range and/or heat/AC in weather. That gets rid of a lot of the technical issues mentioned constantly by so many people here. Why Elon Musk has failed to develop a nifty small, powerful, fuel efficient, dedicated ICE or Turbine generator, I don’t understand. The PHEV is the solution that could be adopted right now, price notwithstanding. I wonder if any EV makers are even reading any of this, or conducting their own analysis of what is realistic, or what people really want right now?
But the cost is too high for wide adoption now anyway, so will probably stay a niche market compared to the entire auto industry. Plus the subsidies will come off at some point, price of electricity is going up big time in some locations, and a road tax will have to implemented at some point to make up for the lack of a gas tax.
The EV, and probably more like a PHEV is here to stay, but it won’t be displacing ICE vehicles anytime soon.t At least not until the next petroleum crisis hits, which may be some time off now.
recharged overnight via a 120 VAC 15 Amp plug.
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over 12 hours this will supply the energy of 2/3 of a gallon of gasoline.
it costs pennies to refuel because you are only getting pennies worth of energy.
When you can effectively drive 100 miles for the same kWh in a gallon of gasoline — meh pennies
10 hours of charging at 15 Amps x 120 VAC = 1.8 Kw x 10 hrs = 18 Kw/hr. At a base price of .10/cents a Kw/hr, that is $1.80. Lots of pennies, 180 to be exact. At higher electricity prices of .20 to .25 cents at Kw/hr where much electricity is much higher priced around the world, probably more like $4 to $5 on average over a 10 hour charge, although probably wouldn’t be consuming 1800 watts for the final 2-3 hours.
Totally feasible, and a small light weight runabout EV would be getting the equivalent of 100 mpg+, so would definitely be able to recharge overnight and run around town all day for a 40-50 mile range. All on a 15 Amp 120 VAC plug…an extension cord just like anyone using a block heater all night consuming 600 watts just to keep an ICE block warm so it will start in 10 below.
You haven’t actually driven a car built after about 1995, have you? -10F (assuming worst case because you didn’t list a unit) is irrelevant to a modern, fuel-injected car. How do I know? Well I do it for many weeks every year. And don’t forget that those precious TSLA battery packs have their own internal heaters for those cold days as well…
Tsk Tsk…not sure what you are talking about, but if you are saying you shouldn’t plug your ICE block heater in below -10F, then you are just doing premature damage to your engine. Sure, your fuel injected car may start in that weather, but you are definitely adding additional wear and tear on the ICE engine with an extreme cold start. I have mainly diesel engines in various vehicles and heavy equipment, so much more important to do so especially if you need to get moving anywhere, since the lead acid battery does lose a lot of cold cranking amps. At a minimum, at least have a oil warmer of some type, since that first 45 seconds of running has some metal on metal with many moving parts. You probably don’t know what I am talking about.
Full size Electric Bus gets 1100 miles per charge
https://www.theverge.com/2017/9/19/16333996/proterras-big-electric-bus-can-go-1102-miles-on-one-charge
The batteries on the full size bus weigh more than 2 or 3 Teslas, not just their battery packs.
Mazda + Toyato will be coming out with a micro ICE (rotary engine) type of hybrid by 2019, I’ve read.
so a 300 mile range EV would need 75 – 100 Kw-hrs of cells
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100 kWh is the energy of 3 gallons of gasoline.
You forgot the cost of fuel to get to the Petrol to the service station, and the cost of fuel to drive to and from the petrol station
Please note that the infrastructure of new and improved wiring to and from the charging stations or the PV panels has to be paid for. The infrastructure for petrol lorries exists and has been paid for already. Compared to that, the price of transportation of petrol is a “quantité négligeable”.
Non
The cost has to be paid every time that big truck damages the road, and burns petrol – just to deliver petrol.
My prediction is that by 2030 there will be more EV (including hybrid) in operation worldwide than IC — perhaps sooner
The special EV electricity grid still has to be built and henceforth requires maintenance and repair – as a petrol lorry as well. How many petrol lorries are rolling on highways and streets? Compared to the number of other vehicles it is yet another “quantité négligeable”. They can not be hold responsible for each and every pothole.
your. average lp battery. costs more than the gasoline to drive the total number of miles the EV can drive during the lifetime of the battery.
lipo batteries cost more to build than the cost of energy the can store in their lifetime.
EV’s are a great replacement for bicycles because they have a similar range and can be powered off. the existing grid when small.
@ur momisuglyferd
So WRONG!!
Prius battery pack replacement — at dealer $2500 after core discount
150,000 miles @ur momisugly 25 miles per gallon @ur momisugly $3 per gallon = $18,000
” Consumer Reports recently tested a 215,000-mile 2003 Prius and found its performance had barely diminished. In the latter, the only component that had needed replacement was a fan belt, at 127,000 miles.”
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1078138_toyota-hybrid-battery-replacement-cost-guide
That cost is paid by trucking companies via of a road use tax. Ever see truck weigh stations alongside interstates?
Doesn’t come close to the cost of maintaining the roads.
“My prediction is that by 2030 there will be more EV (including hybrid) in operation worldwide than IC — perhaps sooner”
So 13 years away perhaps sooner? Some rough numbers. Total number of vehicles in the world 1.5 billion, annual production 90million. So in rough terms you are saying 750 million cars (lets just go for 50% not a majority) replaced in 13 years or sooner even. Thats roughly averaging 57 million cars a year for 13 years (more if you reckon sooner). They are slightly shy of that at the moment so they better get a wriggle on over the next decade.
Like most of these fan boy pronouncements, it defies common sense and even the most basic of sanity checks.
Even if we banned IC cars today, and somehow, magically the production of EVs jumped to match the current rate for IC cars, that prediction still wouldn’t come true.
@ur momisugly yar..
Don’t discount exponential growth — and yeah that’s my prediction
A 1 seat EV or a converted 3rd world moped to EV counts, as does any IC that integrates an EV motor to enhance performance and reduce use of fuel
Didn’t read very closely did you — I said EV or hybrid vehicles — that counts EV bicycles as well
@ur momisugly Mark W
dont reed two guud do you
I included hybrid — which includes conversions — yeah — all those 3rd world moped/motorcycle smog factories — slap an EV motor and you get a hybrid — same with bicycles
But Ferd was talking about EVs not hybrids.
A Prius is NOT AN EV.
ferdberple : except that it is the other side of the Carnot cycle, or to put it another way the electric motor is vastly more efficient
John Hardy, except that on a well-to-wheel basis, gasoline-electric hybrids have about the same overall efficiency as plug-in EVs.
As always, focusing on only one factor, while ignoring the rest of the world.
So what if the motor is more efficient. It’s all the inefficiencies between the power plant and the motor that kill ya.
By “fast charge” I mean charging from a DC source at 40Kw upwards
=======
your average ICE car engine can supply this. park a bunch at every gas station and hook them up to the gas pumps. someone needs a charge drive to the gas station.
I think John Hardy makes a good case that in the US the replacement of ICEVs by EVs will take a long time and require solving many problems (grouped in those 3 categories.)
Matthew, Yep. One problem is going to be getting us rednecks out of our trucks. Can’t imagine seeing an F350 King Ranch with an electric motor…
Okay, you can have your EV. Just give me back the $7,500 tax credit and next time buy your own lunch.
It ranges from 2500-7500, and ends after the first 200,000 sold per manufacturer.
and get the Nuclear Industry to give back all their subsidies first.
Sure, and that’s called tax reform.
I love how EV fans have to dredge up every disproven myth in the book in order to justify their desire to take other people’s money.
BTW, the subsidy of the purchase price is just one of the many subsidies EV users benefit from, and not the largest.
@ur momisugly Mark
List them
@Mark
and while you are at it list all the Nuclear Power Subsidies (which make wind and solar subsidies pale in comparison when you account for real dollars)
karl
November 7, 2017 at 7:09 pm
@Mark
and while you are at it list all the Nuclear Power Subsidies (which make wind and solar subsidies pale in comparison when you account for real dollars)
===================================================================
Yeah, try again, sport.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaellynch/2015/12/02/energy-subsidies-2-real-numbers/2/
https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/115th-congress-2017-2018/reports/52521-energytestimony.pdf
Not that I favor ANY subsidies, but it’s a flat out lie to claim that nuclear is anywhere near the subsidy pig as greed energy. And that’s true on both an absolute and per kWh over the last decade.
I’m a bit of a car guy…69 GMC truck, 86 Pontiac Fiero (future project car), 61 Volvo PV544 hot rod project (currently in work, about a year left to finish), and my daily driver is a 2010 Subaru STi SE. Here is my take on EVs: I would buy an EV to replace my STi if- I can find an EV that will perform like my STi for an equal or lesser price than my STi ( I paid $32k in 2010) and have equal or less operational costs and maintenance. That’s it. My days of owning and driving an 84 Tercel are past so why would I buy a an EV that performs like an 84 Tercel or spend $100+ for a cool EV?
Thank you for an excellent article.
I have used an electric vehicle in my daily commute for the last three years, and 80 000 km, and I am very satisfied.
It is the preferred car for all family members simply because it is so pleasant to drive because it goes so smooth and noiseless.
A plus is also that the interior heater starts immediately, no need for waiting for the engine to warm up. This is important since I live in a cold country.
Almost no maintenance and harassment; it is just to fill up with windscreen washing fluid and to plug in the power at home is done in an instant and comes just as natural as locking the doors.
I am fully convinced that electric vehicles will dominate in a few years simply because they are better and soon they will also become cheaper than combustion engines.
/Jan
Very many science fiction here…… or should I say , the ” wizard of Oz”?
And who thinks that the Chinese will save the world is taught by numbers of the better:
New vehicle registrations in China 2016: 24,079,000
of which pure EV or hybrid: 300,000
Although China has given the goal from 2030 only hybrid or pure EV to allow, but until then, the Middle Kingdom will still be flooded with combustion engines. And as it is with promises in the future, even goals can change, not be attainable for the sake of the snow of yesterday or otherwise.
Jan – many thanks
Yesterday California got about 21% of total electricity energy from renewables:http://content.caiso.com/green/renewrpt/20171106_DailyRenewablesWatch.pdf
I should note that the figures exclude Sacramento and Los Angeles.
For CA to achieve its ICE-free goal, it will have to install lots more electricity generating capacity than it has now, more than it is planning to. It will be even harder to charge the cars completely from renewables.
My son has a Nissan Leaf (whose purchase was subsidized, or he would not have bought it). My other son has a Toyota Prius. I like driving both cars. But right now, my VW Jettas and similarly sized and equipped cars are better value for the money.
I think that this is a slow story, fascinating though the daily details can be.