Full disclosure: I own an electric car, and I think they are useful for city transportation. However, having owned one for a decade, I can say that it hasn’t been practical or cost-effective. John Hardy believes they are the future, I’ll let you, the reader, decide. – Anthony Watts
The demise of the Western auto industry: Part 1 – the basics
By John Hardy
Preamble
In the West, almost all climate change activists consider Electric Vehicles (EVs) important because they are believed to emit less CO2 per mile. In contrast, many (but not all) climate sceptics consider them a waste of space because they regard them as a solution to a non-problem: they believe that all that EVs are good for is virtue signalling.
Actually, and quite regardless of “the environment”, EVs are poised to inflict the mother of all disruptions on the automotive industry. This can’t be explained (or dismissed) in a soundbite, so this is the first of three posts setting out why this might be so. This first post is mostly background. The second addresses the problem for the established automakers. The third addresses some misapprehensions about EVs.
The LA times reported in 2009 that the outgoing CEO of GM said that the biggest mistake he made was to kill the electric EV1 and throw away the technology lead that GM had acquired[1] , [2]. It isn’t just GM. The turgid response of all the big Western automakers leaves them at risk of being overtaken by agile Eastern competitors in the same way that the Swiss (mechanical) watch industry was overtaken in the 1980s by agile Eastern competitors making cheap accurate quartz watches[3]
What is so great about electric motors?
The internal combustion engine (ICE) is a complex beast which needs lots of air, lots of cooling and which generates large volumes of smelly exhaust. It has a high parts count, is a high maintenance device, and is plagued by noise and vibration. Worst of all it has an absurdly narrow torque band and won’t run at all below (typically) 500 r.p.m. or so. A lot of the complexity and expense in a modern ICE car is focused on minimizing these deficiencies.
By contrast, an electric motor is a model of flexibility and simplicity. Figure 1 shows the floor pan of the Tesla Model S.
The entire drive train consists of two metal cans, sandwiching a fixed-ratio final drive. The motor revs to about 15,000 r.pm. It produces good torque at zero r.p.m. and (in some models) peaks at over 400HP. No clutch, torque converter or variable-ratio gearbox is needed. The motor is an ordinary AC induction motor. It has no brushes and (apart from the bearings) one moving part. It contains no rare earth magnets. The inverter is solid state. No exhaust system, turbocharger, oil pump, coil, distributer, intake air filter, complex vibration damping or heat shields; no pistons, valves, pushrods, camshafts, lifters, catalytic converters……….
The end result is smooth, seamless but ruthless acceleration and whisper-quiet cruising. Some models have a smaller drive train between the front wheels. The two together can accelerate a 4,000lb car at around 1G from standstill to 60 m.p.h. in under 3 seconds.
There is more. The inverter can adjust the motor torque in milliseconds so traction control is far more accurate than for a piston engine. (Elon Musk once Tweeted “Tesla dual motor cars are also all-wheel drive. Main goal of dual motor was actually insane traction on snow. Insane speed was a side effect” [4] ).
The motor can also act as a brake, which recovers energy (much of the energy used to climb a hill is put back into the battery rolling down the other side). The same characteristic makes it possible to drive on just one pedal; press to go, release to stop. It also saves on brake wear (one example was an electric taxi that did over 100,000 miles on the original brake pads).
Why now?
Electric drive dominated the early years of the automobile, and the electric motor has never ceased to be vastly better than a piston engine for driving a vehicle. There were however two big snags and one lesser one with electric drive. All three have been solved in recent years.
The first problem was energy storage. Piston engines may be inefficient, but motor fuel packs a huge amount of energy into a small volume. Once a distribution infrastructure is in place, the fuel is easily and quickly replenished which allowed essentially unconstrained travel. By contrast the lead acid batteries that dominated electric traction until recently were totally outclassed on both counts; too little energy and too much time to replenish.
Enter the lithium ion battery. Compared with lead-acid, this stores maybe three times the energy per unit of weight or volume (some a bit more, some a bit less). It has a far longer life than a lead-acid battery, is tolerant of partial charging, has no significant memory effect problems and (critically) can be charged very fast. 20 minutes for 80% charge is easily achievable with little effect on cycle life using modern batteries if you can suck power out of the wall fast enough [5]
The second big change has been the development of power electronics. Until the 1970s, electric motors were hard to control [6]. At worst they were either on or off. At best, control was lethargic. That all changed with so-called Vector Control. Inside a modern motor controller (sometimes called an “inverter” if the motor is AC) there are a number of huge transistors, capable of switching hundreds of amps. With cunning and some capacitors these can produce virtually infinitely variable output. A modern EV can be inched along at a creeping pace with far more precision than an ICE car equipped with a clutch, and with less effort: no clutch slipping needed.
The third, lesser, but still important change has been the growing capability of digital processors to do complex calculations in real time. Until quite recently, electric motoring has depended upon series (brushed) direct current (DC) motors. These work well at low speeds but they tend to run out of torque at high r.p.m. and are more difficult to cool. The advent of modern microprocessors has made it possible to synthesise three phase alternating current (AC) at the necessary power levels from a battery. This in turn allows the use of simple induction motors – no brushes to wear out and better cooling. An induction motor is essentially a hunk of iron on a stick inside a tube containing some electrical windings. Machines don’t come much simpler. [Some manufacturers prefer permanent magnet motors. They are smaller and lighter yet, but rely on rare earth magnets which creates supply issues. These motors can also terminate themselves in a sudden melt-down if they get too hot. I am not a fan.]
What remains to be done?
Several things need to happen before EVs become acceptable as a complete replacement for piston engine cars: broadly price, range and fast-charge
Firstly price. This is partly an issue of scale. If you make a million of the same model car, cost per car is a lot less than if you make 10,000. The financial services company UBS recently tore down and analysed a Chevy Bolt. Their conclusion? “total cost of consumer ownership can reach parity with combustion engines from 2018” [7]
Secondly range and thirdly fast charge. The average private car in the UK does about 21 miles a day. In the US, it is about 30. Most people do most of their driving either commuting or local driving. The problem is the half-dozen trips a year to visit granny or go on holiday. There is also a small percentage of users who do a high daily mileage as part of their work.
My personal opinion is that a 300 mile range should work fine for almost everyone, so long as fast charge to 80% capacity takes no more than about 20 minutes. This is just based on the idea that I wouldn’t want to drive more than 300 miles without a coffee and a potty stop.
Tesla’s high-end cars are well past 300 mile range. Even the (relatively) humble Renault Zoe which initially had a 130 mile range has (or soon will have) a 250 mile range option. Fast charge has some distance to go yet in practice, but there is no intrinsic problem in reaching a 20 minute charge.
Price, range and fast charge. EVs are a “whole system” problem that goes far beyond just making a better box for the punter to sit in.
Conclusion
This has been a quick run-through of the theory of EVs. If you are not convinced, go and drive one. Trickle along at three miles an hour listening to the birds sing then floor it. By the time you reach 30 you will be convinced.
Part 2 of this series looks at the problems this creates for the established Western automakers, and part 3 considers common misconceptions which lead some people to conclude that EVs will not be viable in the near future.
References
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_EV1
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Who_Killed_the_Electric_Car%3F#Response_from_General_Motors
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quartz_crisis
[4] https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/560900676453433344
[5] Tests run by the author using a 3C charge rate and lithium iron phosphate cells showed a rate of capacity loss only slightly steeper than similar cells at a 0.5C charge rate [1C is a charge rate numerically equal to the Amp-hr capacity of the battery e.g. 40 Amps for a 40 Amp-hr battery]. A 3C is nominally a full charge in 20 minutes (1/3rd of an hour)
[6] http://www.eetimes.com/author.asp?section_id=36&doc_id=1325757
[7] http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/05/19/electric-vehicles-cost-conventional-cars-2018/
It would be good to perhaps get an update directly from the horse’s mouth on an update to the purchase of a small EV, maybe as part of the conclusion in article 3?
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/05/12/what-ive-been-up-to-electrifying-my-ride/
Interesting reading from 2008, nearly as old as this blog, from the early days of WUWT. Amazing that a lot of these early commenters are still here…a good read from the time machine when EV’s weren’t all the hype they are now.
“So, my mission here is simple; I’m not saving the planet, I’m saving money.” Sounds like a good bumper sticker to me.
Saving money by having other people pay most of the bills.
How is not spending money on gas reliant on “having other people pay most of the bills”?
In 2008 MarkW, you only had one complaint against EV’s. Now you are accusing our host here of ‘having other people pay most of the bills’. Have you no gratitude for 10 years of posting your dumb comments here, for free?
MarkW May 13, 2008 at 5:10 am
My only complaint is that gas taxes are used to pay for the roads. If you aren’t buying gas, you aren’t helping to fund the roads that you are using.
REPLY: Alright, fine. I’ll get an electric airplane.
EV subsidies look likely to vanish shortly, at least in the US of A. Without subsidies, EV’s become uneconomical. The museum beckons. Yet again.
Not really. The ZEV mandate from CARB will remain in effect, so companies will still have an incentive to build their own EVs, especially since both the required percentage is going up and the traveling provision is ending next year.
A very good reason to revoke California’s variance on setting auto pollution standards. It may have made sense in the 1960’s, but has not for over 30 years.
No thanks, we’d rather not have people from Montana telling us how to keep our air clean. As it is, there is no discrepancy unless the Feds decide to let down their end of the bargain.
I used to live in California, and CARB has been detached from reality for a very long time. The ZEV requirements have been an example of green handwaving since they were originated.
Yes, the air was so much better when we had smog alerts all the time.
Not responsive. Most of the improvement was due to Federal rules, and technological improvements (catalytic converters and better engine controls), not CARB. Why should California be able to violate the commerce clause of the Constitution?
Many of those improvements were first pioneered by CARB before getting rolled into national standards. As it is, CARB and national standards are currently in sync, it’s just that the auto industry now wants to change the files because the White House wants to destroy the country.
You do remember my original comment that at one time, the rule made some sense. IIRC catalytic converters were developed by Volvo, and early electronic controls by Bosch, neither of which was unique to the California market. CARB ha been off the rails since the late 1970’s.
I tend to like the clean air.
I don’t think so. What you like is virtue signalling and bureaucratic obscurantism.
When did clean air become virtue signaling?
“Pollution” restrictions that have no positive effect on actual air quality. Or setting goals, like VOC standards that are exceeded by emissions from foliage, that are impossible to meet.
Being a B.Eng (Nuclear/Computer Systems/Optics…) I can geek out on E cars, but if range is such a big deal why the 300-400hp equivalent motor. My 1.8L Matrix is more than enough at 126hp. Maybe the e car needs 200hp because of battery weight. The rest is just for fun/showing off. More power to them (unintentional pun) but no subsidies for luxury e cars, they don’t need it.
Everything about an electric car is right.
Except the battery.
The tantalising thing is, that the battery is so close to being right, and yet battery theory suggests it probably never will be right. Never can be right.
Eco lunes dream that batteries work on time, every time, and with a 20 minute charge. And their meters say they are fully charged until, egads, suddenly they are not. X amount of charge is not Y miles. These things are charged until they drop dead, suddenly. Oh, you are out in the weeds and no juice. Hey, next come trailers with spare battery packs and a 2 ton jack to install them quickie. GM is mad they threw out their battery car plans before they were told big Fed subsidies were on the way. Dammit, missed a handout.
Lovely film, thank you for today’s education installment from WUWT!. John Stringfellow’s steam powered plane flew (launched by wire) in 1848, but that’s a long way from free controlled flight of course.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Stringfellow
‘A fine name for suspension’ as Scientific American noted September 23, 1848; Volume 4, Issue 1, page 4
Make them modular and swappable. The energy storage medium of gasoline is swapped every time you fill the tank. (the fact gasoline as an energy storage medium results in it’s destruction is immaterial)
The industry will transition to a standardized swappable battery medium — you pull in, they scan your old batteries and measure remaining charge (or measure charge by recording joules required to bring to full charge) — remove the depleted batteries and replace with full charge batteries. Cost of used joules deducted from your electronic currency account.
In and out in less than 5 minutes.
The problem is that batteries have a limited life span. How do you compensate someone for swapping out brand new batteries for a set that is at the end of it’s useful life.
You also skim over the technical problems of actually swapping out the batteries.
1) They are heavy, so you need heavy equipment to do the swapping. That’s both expensive and slow.
2) Redesigning the car to make it easy to swap batteries is going to add weight, volume and cost to existing cars.
PS: 5 minutes to swap batteries? Never happen.
@Mark
If they are modular — (300lbs/less) you simply need a hydraulic lift and a hand truck — with a pit like oil change places use.
Also, battery life issues are extremely over hyped — I personally know multiple Prius owners with over 150,000 miles on the original batteries.
Yeah — 5 minutes — it will happen in less than 10 years — In fact I posit a manufacturer will come out with a complete package of solar system with modular battery swap out home charging unit within 5 years
Tesla tried battery swapping (demoed 2 in the time it took to fill a petrol tank) and it flopped in the market. Punters preferred to Supercharge and take a few extra minutes
John Hardy
November 7, 2017 at 1:52 am
Tesla tried battery swapping (demoed 2 in the time it took to fill a petrol tank) and it flopped in the market. Punters preferred to Supercharge and take a few extra minutes
============================================================================
Yeah, no. TSLA did a magic show with modified cars/battery packs to qualify for extra California ZEV credits but never introduced it to the market (because it wasn’t a real production vehicle).
There is no vast electrical power infrastructure and no power plants capable of feeding them. As for electric cars, really, you don’t know when it is going to die. You get a fuel gauge with a gas car, but battery charge life meters don’t exist. You also don’t know what full charge is. Last, I don’t think we have enough explosive lithium to ignite all the battery cars needed in the world. Essentially this is a coastal downtown metro boy going EV. It is not me, living in exburbs, and going offroading and going over a mountain range to Los Angeles. It is uh, uh, 50 miles range after climbing 4500 feet from the coast but only 2500 feet from the High Desert. Oh, and your plans to go to Yosemite or the Sierras skiing, forget it. Yosemite pass is just 11,000 feet. I bet on a full charge you get half way up from the east side at Owens Lake. Then there is that little problem with cold. This sad story is a lowlander, flatlander, swamp city boy who never saw the Western United States and don’t know what mountains are. 300 mile range in Tampa, 50 in Idaho. What I find most amusing is all those charge kiosks with EV hoses to be installed in bad neighborhoods. Not one going to get cut for its scrap copper value, nevva. Oh no, sabotage and good old vandalism don’t exist in this downtown city boys Belaire neighborhood, but put out 2000 EV kiosks in Chicago, they probably won’t survive the weekend.
Average house uses 30kw. Average person drives 30 miles per day. Typical EV goes 4 miles per 1kw, so you’d use around 7.5kw to recharge. If you’ve switched to LEDs like most people and do a few other upgrades you’ll use about the same amount of power as you do now. No significant infrastructure change required for this usage model.
YOu never tire of telling the same old lies.
Are you related to Griff.
By switching out every bulb in your house, including fridge and stove to LED, you would save less than 1% of the energy needed to charge your EV.
Beyond that, you keep confusing energy and power in your calculations.
Obviously you don’t own an EV or a hybrid. I owned a Prius I gave to my daughter — it has a charge meter — that is accurate — very accurate. How do you think the car knows when to kick on the ICE to recharge the batteries.
Duh
1) You know exactly when it’s going to die, particularly because pretty much all have a “turtle mode” before it dies completely. Even if it does die completely, just call AAA for a tow to a charger.
2) All EVs have a battery state-of-charge meter and some have a battery health meter as well.
3) The number of cars “needed” will drastically be reduced by autonomous vehicle services, especially in urban areas.
4) People are discovering that they can do just about everything that they want to in an EV, including go up into the mountains to ski. And unlike a (non-hybrid) gas-powered vehicle, an EV will regain a significant portion of the energy used to climb as it descends.
5) People in “bad neighborhoods” also own and drive EVs. The addition of charging infrastructure will be just as welcome there as it is anywhere.
Donald check out the performance of EVs at Pikes Peak. An electric motor is unaffected by altitude.
in defense of electric car..the very title shows the problem of electric ..it is political..are they cheaper? no really are they cleaner? not really;..
so what?? Let people decide.
and you know what…if you want an electric car , have it!!! just don’t ask me for money and don’t tell me lies.
Lemiere: the choice of titles was Anthony’s. My working title was related to the problems faced by the Western auto industry
If I can get an electric car that will go from Eugene, Oregon through Portland to Philadelphia in 72 hours (in 1965 before all the interstates), (I will get one Depending on the price…)
72 hours is exactly 3 days – one driver – me…
The last leg was after sleeping in the car at Fargo, ND, then to Philadelphia in 24 hours…1400.3 miles…
Maybe when we have flying electric cars, you could do that…
There already is one…
https://www.theverge.com/2017/7/9/15938028/tesla-model-s-cannonball-run-record
@fiEtser – Cool, I hadn’t seen that…thanks.
Could they have done that with only one driver? I wasn’t trying for any record, but just had to get back to register in time for fall classes at PCA, Phila. Had one night’s sleep near Helena Montana, and another night’s sleep just east of Fargo, ND. It was actually 1966, for accuracy…
Probably, though it depends on the route. Still, the network of charging infrastructure continues to grow.
…In defense of the electric car–part 1…
No one is knocking the electric car as a concept. There are a few applications – typically stop-start local deliveries – where electric power is the best solution, and it is often used for these.
What we are complaining about is being FORCED towards a technology that we don’t want, by activists who don’t know what they are doing, while trying to address a non-existent problem….
Delivery vans may be the best application. The local artisan baker has one (70 mile range, 50 in winter) charged up over night on the 7kW supply at the bakery.
In my youth milk was delivered by electric ‘milk floats’, good for stopping at every door and nice and quiet before dawn (apart from a little whirring of electric motors and clinking of glass milk bottles).
http://www.milkfloats.org.uk/
We still have a milk float of that description delivering!
Dodgy geezer: I agree entirely about not forcing things
Correct Dodgy.
When I did my engineering thesis mid last century electric vehicles were being used then, unsubsidised, to replace horses for local neighbourhood deliveries. From what I can see nothing much has changed to improve the power density and cost effectiveness of batteries.
The three factors that continue to prove insoluble: exorbitant vehicle cost, deficient power density, short battery life, lack of distributed a comprehensive charging network and a lack of reliable generation capacity to power one if it did exist.
Without shiploads of taxpayer subsidies BEVs really aren’t going anywhere any time soon.
“and (critically) can be charged very fast.. 20 minutes for 80% charge is easily achievable with little effect on cycle life”
20 minutes – very fast? How long if you want 100 per cent charge for a long journey? That surely also depends on how long the queue is. A motorway restaurant might take in 200 vehicles over twenty minutes. How will it cope with the queue in terms of time and parking space at the refuelling point?
Modular swappable battery packs.
Would require less infrastructure than the tanker trucks that currently are necessary to get gas to service stations.
You haven’t thought through the many problems with this simple solution.
@ur momisugly Mark
Enlighten Me
And don’t include changing current vehicles — New Design for battery packs and vehicles is stipulated and inherent.
Nobody uses 100% of a charge, just like nobody uses 100% of the gas in your tank.
Most people want a reserve for the unexpected.
If you watch what happens at most interstate gas stations, people pull up to the pump, fill up, go inside, use the restroom, get a snack, then leave. That’s at least 20 minutes so it isn’t really any different than how gas stations tend to be used now.
another article hiding tons of lies and misconceptions behind a thin veil of reasonableness
1 – again with this BS that ICE are complex and unreliable while electric motors have just one moving part and require no maintenance, so an EV will never break down or require maintenance. this ignore the thousands of cells in the battery pack, each one with its own charging management, wiring, etc. and the millions or billions of transistors required to run the show, with all their obscure and complex failure modes.
the engine of a modern car will run for the full life of the vehicle requiring very little maintenance and often no repairs at all.
2 – i am not aware of any li-ion cell capable of having both high capacity and that can be charged at well over 2C without severely shortening its lifespan (look at the charging curves of Li-Ion cells please)
3 – even assuming it is possible to achieve 80% charge in 20 minutes (how i love these nice round numbers) , this means that a 90kWh pack will require a 200kW charger. thats a disaster waiting to happen. the slighters problem in the contacts/cables and you will see a firework you will remember for life. and if someone finds a way to charge the same battery in 5 minutes, it means close to a GW charger. i wouldnt want to be anywhere near such charger charging such battery. electric equipments of this level of power are never accessible to the public, and with good reasons.
4 – the numbers about EV range are false. recently a swiss magazine ran a road test of EV’s and the real
life range, actually tested rather conservatively, was around half of the declared one. 48% to be precise.
5- the story about the average mileage done by the average driver is nonsense. we dont drive average miles in average days, at least once a week i drive well beyond the range of the best EV, but many days i dont go anywhere. a EV would be totally useless to me, as would be to a lot of people. this argument really drives me crazy. i guess these people dont own sets of spanners, but ony one spanner of the average size?
6 – cars is a global market. they cant be designed after the requirements and conditions of a handful of rich guys living in the suburbs of some large and modern metropolies. most people dont have driveways, or garages.
EV’s will never be convenient, or practical, or economically viable. the whole idea is nonsense.
nothing gets even close to the convenience of liquid fuels. in the case, synthetic fuels would be a much better option and wouldnt require rebuilding a whole infrastructure on a planetary scale and replacing billions of perfectly working vehicles.
EV is a fad, the whim of an elite of crazy social engineers. in fact, if you just look, the market demand for EV’s is close to zero.
The ignored issue here, is not so much the infrastructure to enable charging, but also where the vehicles will be parked to be recharged. For the rural/suburban dweller, with their own house & a driveway to park the car in, easy. For the urban dweller, who often has to park their car on a street, sometimes hundreds of yards, or further, from their house, how will they be able to charge it?
Even for those who can park outside their own house, where will the charging point be? It won’t be acceptable to leave a cable winding across the pavement & I’m sure the local youth will enjoy the game of “Let’s unplug every car on the way back from the pub”.
What about your neighbour, quietly popping out after you’ve gone to bed, plugging his car into your socket?
Also, the cost of a new one may very well reach parity with an internal combustion engine vehicle, what about the people who buy second, third or fourth hand? We who pay maybe a few thousand tops for our cars?
There are already urban charging solutions that leverage the existing light poles to provide charging points (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1111252_ubitricity-street-lamp-socket-provides-electric-car-charging). Also, at least in Europe, most charging points only provide a plug, the user brings their own cable. That makes it less likely for cable damage to put the whole unit out of commission, though it of course sucks for that particular cable owner.
Aha! So the unsightly pole-mounted electrical cable system of the U.S. has an unanticipated upside!
Not really, they still need to go. The solutions like ubitricity work with underground service too.
This the most intelligent and lucid comment section I have ever encountered. I am 80 and get the feeling that most commenters here are getting on in years. Maybe Washington DC should look in.
OK – most intelligent people realize the limitations of electric vehicles – especially full plug-in battery types with no ICE component. Some of these limitations will ultimately be solved by technology, others will not, and EV’s will work for some people and not for others.
My concerns is when toxic politicians say they are going to BAN ICE’s by a certain date. These people are utterly incompetent on today’s issues and yet they think they can legislate the future. It would be wonderful for our countries if these extremists were to realize their limitations, which are almost limitless. As Einstein said: “Nothing is infinite, except the universe and human stupidity – and I’m not sure about the universe.”
I disgusted with these incompetent “progressive” politicians, many of whom are simply recycled socialists wrapped in green recycled paper.
I will vote for any politician who says ”I’ll do a whole lot LESS for you!”
Regards, Allan
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/10/04/good-news-about-co2-emissions-progress-to-a-better-world/comment-page-1/#comment-2627250
[excerpt]
Today’s typical politicians are foolish busybodies who think they can and should dictate the lives of others, when they are utterly incompetent on both scientific and social issues. These people are imbeciles who should not even opine on energy policy, let alone formulate it.
Maybe it is because of our education system, which is dominated by leftist ideologues who have little real-life experience. These imbeciles cling to Harpo-Marxist fantasies that killed several hundred million people during the 20th Century and destroyed the freedoms of billions more.
We need much less intrusive governments. I will vote for someone who says ”I’ll do a whole lot LESS for you!”
Regards, Allan
China is winning the race apparently. Not sure what the race is exactly, or indeed what the prize is. Maybe it will help clean up their smog problem. Greenies in our country often pine for a government more like China’s, so they could force through their agendas more easily.
Until someone invents a capacitor (not a battery) that has a similar potential energy as a tank of gasoline, that is also safe (as other point out, capacitors dis-charging in an uncontrolled fashion is scary), electric cars will not replace liquid fuel powered vehicles.
Battery improvements are still just ‘battery improvements’. You will still have all the issues that other have already pointed out (cold performance, cost of rare earth materials, etc.).
We aren’t running out of gasoline any time soon. One area that has seen big leaps in technology has been converting natural gas into liquids. Exxon with Gigamethanol developed a process to make gasoline, Sasol & Shell already have plants turning natural gas into light oils. What has put these plant construction projects on hold is that the price of crude is just too cheap to justify the investment.
Capacitors also have a self-discharge problem. That is the leakage from the negative to the positive plate is a non-trivial amount.
With existing capacitors, if you charged it up fully, then put it in a corner with no external power drain, the capacitor would be completely discharged in a day or so.
The electric car is an economic hermaphrodite. In order to amortize the fixed cost premium, it needs to be driven many miles per year, but the charging time requirement makes it almost impossible to drive the required miles. As long as petroleum-fueled are around as economic competition, electric cars will always be a poor second.
I find my Leaf has become my primary vehicle and my Suburban my secondary. My investment in my (used) Leaf was $9k. I can part it out for more than that if I ever need to.
I expect it to effectively double the useful life of my ($50k) Suburban.
Also, the Leaf costs about 5 cents a mile for power, the Suburban more like 25 cents a mile, plus repairs and maintenance.
I wouldn’t buy a new EV because, your right, the numbers aren’t that great. On the other hand, a truly self driving car would change the way I travel if I didn’t have to concentrate on the road all the time. I’d be more inclined to drive, particularly with the awful experience of flying any more.
Would love to see a “self driving car” here in Mexico…wouldn’t survive for even a day…
Where is the electric vehicle equivalent of a F-150 pick-up?
The top three selling vehicle’s in the U.S. are, in order 1. Ford 2. Chevy and 3. Dodge pickups.
When E.V. makers can insert themselves into this list, then they might be a viable option.
Scheduled to come out next year, though there is a company that offers a plug-in hybrid conversion of production trucks that still retains Ford’s warranty.
“Scheduled to come out next year,”
If you’re referring to Tesla’s model, it was postponed (indefinitely, I think) a week ago during the earnings announcement / conference call.
I wasn’t, but it also isn’t. They very clearly said that they’re about a quarter behind schedule, not “indefinitely”.
You may be right. But I seem to remember a commenter on one of the Seeking Alpha threads saying that during the conference call Musk had indicated that it was all hands on deck for the Model 3 and that work on the pickup was in abeyance. But I may be misremembering.
All hands probably are on deck at Tesla, but they’re not the only ones working on a solution for pickups. Workhorse is front and center of that segment.
Let the future decide for itself. For that matter, let the present decide for itself. If someone is going to take my money, give it away and make things more difficult and expensive just to push their agenda, that is a real and current problem with a real and current solution.
PS, different people are going to have different needs and different preferences. I need to drive further in colder weather, have a heavy boat to tow, have a need to transport larger items, and like the safety of the larger, higher vehicle. I would be dead from either of two different deer strikes if driving a sedan. Viv la diversity? Trouble is, the EV requires killing its alternatives – just like renewable energy. Even the arguments in favor of EV are of an either/or, mutually exclusive arrangement..
As a pure EV owner I have to say:
* They are here to stay.
* They are NOT “the solution”, for anything. However they can easily be part of the solution, together with ICE vehicles and hybrids.
* They are VERY good, at what they are good. I could not be happier with mine. Well, I could, but for reasons unrelated to engines, fuels or batteries. But I would not have bought it if I didn’t also own an ICE vehicle. And I would not have bought it if I didn’t need a second car (my wife drives too). This said, with these personal circumstances that are definitely not so rare, the EV makes an EXCELLENT choice. It is now my main car, in terms of actual yearly mileage, despite I don’t use it for the occasional long distances.
* The only thing really missing for widespread acceptance and a 20%+ market penetration with 40%+ actual use in the roads is a more reasonable price. This will eventually come, as will infrastructure, because human beings don’t waste an opportunity to make business, and the more EVs you have, the more business you can make out of it.
I picked up a lightly used Leaf EV for $9k with 21k miles. I use it for all my in town driving, and it costs me about 5 cents a mile if I charge at home. I can often charge for free at the dealer and elsewhere so it’s really even less. Maintenance costs have been $0.00.
It has significantly reduced the mileage, wear & tear on my Suburban, which I now expect to be able to keep for about twice as long as I originally planned. Big benefit on an otherwise expensive vehicle that I use mostly now to haul Scouts and all their stuff around (camping, etc.) that costs more like 25 cents per mile, plus repairs and maintenance.
Electric cars will become a reality when a hot rail is implanted on major thoroughfares that allows charging while driving. Roads and rails were built before cars and trains became the predominate mechanical transportation.
After
1. The Age of Ships
The time-sequence of transportation was:
2. The Age of Canals
3. The Age of Railways
4. The Age of Roadways
5. The Age of Air
Each step included
A. More and cheaper fuel (and lower energy efficiency)
B. More and cheaper horsepower
C. Better and cheaper engineering/fabrication.
D. Cheaper rights-of-way.(transportation routes)
Railroads were built before cars, however those railroads were steam powered.
As to roads, before cars, horsepower actually meant horsepower.
Have you thought of the cost of putting high voltage rails down the middle of every lane of every road in the country?
Have you considered how you plan on getting cars to switch lanes and roads?
Have you considered how to keep that very high voltage rail from shorting out every time it rains?
Have you considered how to protect animals and pedestrians from that very high voltage rail?
When you have considered all these things and found viable, cost effective solutions for them.
Then please set up an appointment with our secretary for a repeat visit.
Next …
“Have you considered how you plan on getting cars to switch lanes and roads?” Duh…it is already running on battery power. Just being being charged by buried induction coils in the road. That negates the other stupid points you make regarding animals and pedestrians getting electrocuted. Or rain shorting it out. You should have taken some basic engineering courses MarkW, assuming you even got to University. As I said before…the stupid runs deep in this one.
Earthling,
Billyjack mention a hotrail. MarkW sees problems with the stupid rail.
Then you rave about buried coils. Is reading a challenge for you? A rail is not a coil.
I own a PEV; a 2012 Mitsubishi i MiEV with 14k miles (now, had <13 when purchased). It is made for short trips. I bought it at an auction for under $4000. Living in Michigan EV's are not prevalent for obvious reasons, and with a short range to start (~60 miles in warm conditions), the colder it gets the lower the range. Keeping it in a heated area between runs helps a lot.
Also, using the onboard cabin heater sucks the battery even quicker. A PEV purist doesn't use the heater; you use the electric seat warmer and/or an electric blanket. You also apply anti-fog to the windows (toothpaste, shaving cream or RainX anti-fog) and don't breathe hard.
We also own two hybrids. The key to owning them is A) drive often, don't let them sit, it's hard on the hybrid battery B) Sell it shortly before the warranty runs out on the battery, say 2 years or so; let the next person take the $$$ hit for a battery.
My wife used a Toyota Prius on her mail route (USPS). Quite frankly it was the best vehicle she ever used over the past 20 years. With 220,000 miles on it, 750+ stops 5 days a week, it still has the original front brake pads. The weak link in a Prius is the front wheel bearings.
…You also apply anti-fog to the windows (toothpaste, shaving cream or RainX anti-fog) and don’t breathe hard….
I’d be surprised if you apply toothpaste to a windscreen. Many toothpastes are mild abrasives – that’s how they do cleaning.
Use regular Colgate toothpaste, rub in with fingers, wait for 10-15 minutes, rub out with clean cloth. It works better than anything tried yet, but is more work.
http://dendds.com/uploads/RDA_index.pdf
Colgate regular looks pretty far down in the abrasive stakes, but Colgate Whitening is one of the highest. The list above may help. Tooth enamel and glass are broadly similar in hardness – glass is probably a bit harder…
95% of all one way trips in the US are less than 50 miles
over 90% are less than 30 miles
This is from data collected on over 700,000 trips by the NHTS
http://www.solarjourneyusa.com/EVdistanceAnalysis7.php
So what?
Nobody has denied that electrics are useful for some people some of the time.
The vehemence is over the plans to ban ICE cars that many governments have.
If you have a problem with government legislation, I suggest you contact your representative(s) or run for office.
Honestly, ICE are horrible — not because of climate BS — but because they are wasting the best feedstocks for polymers and other carbon products (nanotubes, graphene) — to very inefficiently create heat to do work.
Driving an electric car is a bit like using a corn stove; saved me lots of money for 5 years, but all I did was “the corn stove”. It ends up being like wearing a ball and chain because every time you go to take it for a ride, you wonder if you remembered to charge it and you have to calculate if you can make it to your destination and back.
I would never buy a new electric car. Rather, I’d wait about 4 years for the depreciation to reach 75%, then buy it. The one I bought still has 5 years left on the battery warranty. There’s really no maintenance to speak of on mine. Replace wipers every year or two, that’s about it.