Is climate change controversy good for science?

By Craig Idso

In the title of their newly published article in the journal Scientometrics, Jankó et al. (2017) ask the important question “Is climate change controversy good for science?”

Their answer, which we will divulge later, came about via a somewhat unique analysis, which compared the reference lists of two major reports published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC; AR4 and AR5) with that published by the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC; Climate Change Reconsidered (CCR) and Climate Change Reconsidered II (CCRII)). More specifically, the comparison involved (1) entering all references from the four reports into a database, (2) sorting them by author and by journal, (3) comparing the overlap and differences in citations between the two publishing entities and (4) examining the evolution (i.e., similarities and differences) of citations by each entity between their two reports. And what did these several actions reveal?

Not surprisingly, there were some similarities and differences among the references cited in the IPCC and NIPCC reports. In terms of differences, the IPCC tended to favor citations from journals that are focused more on the modelling enterprise, whereas the NIPCC tended to favor publications in the paleo-sciences. By way of similarity, when comparing the AR4 and CCR reports, both organizations derived references from an overlapping set of 126 journals, which number increased to 198 for the ensuing AR5 and CCRII tomes. However, Jankó et al. report that “the sceptics have broadened their spectrum of journals more than the IPCC,” as the NIPCC added 170 new journals to their citation list between their two reports, while the IPCC added only 158.

Another interesting finding is seen in their examination of who each organization was citing. In-text analysis of the IPCC’s AR5 report revealed that 19 out of the 20 most frequently cited authors in that report were directly involved in the compilation of it. And though the remaining person, J. Hansen, was not officially involved in producing AR5, he participated in the production of at least one prior IPCC report (Third Assessment) as a Contributing Author. Similar analysis of the AR4 report revealed that 14 out of the 16 most frequently cited IPCC authors were involved with the writing of that report. Yet, here again, the remaining two individuals were directly involved in the production of the IPCC’s preceding Third Assessment Report. Such findings indicate the IPCC report authors are most intent on citing their own work, thereby promoting their own interests and findings above the work of others. In contrast, only four of the 18 most frequently cited authors of CCRII, and only one of the 13 most frequently cited authors of CCR, were involved in the compilation of those reports. Thus, the NIPCC reports present a greater degree of independence among its authors and the material they produce and cite than that of the IPCC.

Finally, returning to Jankó et al.’s question posed in the title of their paper — “Is climate change controversy good for science?” — in summing up their analysis they write that “the competitive situation created by the publications of the NIPCC reports … is beneficial for climate science in general; it fosters knowledge creation, i.e. the reviewing process, mobilizing a growing number of references into review.” And while this knowledge creation is important, Jankó et al. caution that “without an explicit dialogue between the [NIPCC and IPCC] reports, there is no chance to mitigate climate change controversy itself.” In other words, (1) there is no scientific consensus, (2) the debate is not settled, (3) nor will it ever go away until the closed-minded circular group-think of the IPCC authors properly recognize and address the counter-theories presented by the NIPCC in its reports. Good luck getting that to happen!

Paper Reviewed

Jankó, F., Vancsó, J.P. and Móricz, N. 2017. Is climate change controversy good for science? IPCC and contrarian reports in the light of bibliometrics. Scientometrics 112: 1745-1759.

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October 4, 2017 10:10 pm

I’ll bet that a study of who peer reviewed what papers would show the same kind of incestuousness among the papers written by the most frequently cited authors in IPCC reports.

MarkW
Reply to  co2isnotevil
October 5, 2017 7:12 am

I don’t know if it was ever done as a formal study, but I have heard of such research, and it does confirm your suspicions.

Reply to  co2isnotevil
October 5, 2017 8:12 am

It’s called “pal review”.

October 4, 2017 10:11 pm

It’s good for alarmists’ bank accounts.

kyle_fouro
October 4, 2017 10:13 pm

Lindzen’s insight is timeless
http://www.azquotes.com/quote/1386476

jclarke341
Reply to  kyle_fouro
October 5, 2017 7:24 am

Lindzen’s quote:
“What historians will definitely wonder about in future centuries is how deeply flawed logic, obscured by shrewd and unrelenting propaganda, actually enabled a coalition of powerful special interests to convince nearly everyone in the world that CO2 from human industry was a dangerous, planet-destroying toxin. It will be remembered as the greatest mass delusion in the history of the world – that CO2, the life of plants, was considered for a time to be a deadly poison.”
Yup!

brians356
Reply to  jclarke341
October 5, 2017 12:53 pm

Few promoters of CAGW actually believe what they’re touting, and most laymen are skeptical and/or indifferent. I prefer to call it a hoax and a conspiracy on the part of the promoters, and a collective shrug on the part of the masses.

AndyE
October 4, 2017 10:23 pm

“Is climate change controversy good for science?” – of course it is. Any controversy, thoughtfully debated, is good for science. Time, and/or further factual observations, will prove one or the other opinion correct. The only danger we face is if one side unilaterally declares that “there is no controversy”.

Reply to  AndyE
October 4, 2017 10:38 pm

And “the science is settled”. There is no debate allowed by the alarmists.

richard verney
Reply to  Phillip Bratby
October 5, 2017 12:58 am

Any controversy, thoughtfully debated, is good for science

And as you quite rightly observe:

There is no debate allowed by the alarmists.

The timing of the recent article could not be more appropriate to demonstrates your point, See:

Mann Claims Climate is Not Debatable – at an Academic Freedom Event

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/10/04/mann-claims-climate-is-not-debatable-at-an-academic-freedom-event/

Jack Dale
Reply to  Phillip Bratby
October 5, 2017 8:33 am

500 pages of debate – 3 skeptics, three affirmers. https://www.aps.org/policy/statements/upload/climate-seminar-transcript.pdf

Willy Pete
Reply to  Phillip Bratby
October 6, 2017 10:02 am

Jack,
Alarmists given the first and last word, and realists totally ignored in the APS statement.

Resourceguy
Reply to  AndyE
October 5, 2017 6:09 am

It’s not a real debate when one side is situated in the wilderness trying to get a word in edgewise. That is similar to staged elections in totalitarian regimes.

MarkW
Reply to  Resourceguy
October 5, 2017 7:14 am

What the warmists wish to do to those who disagree with them reminds me of staged elections in totalitarian regimes as well.

CC Reader
Reply to  AndyE
October 5, 2017 7:25 am

“One side unilaterly declares …” Since the medical science lies of the last century and the climate lies of then and now, I have no respect for scientists. They are all liars, just like our politicians! MAAGGGAAAA

brians356
Reply to  CC Reader
October 5, 2017 12:59 pm

Hear, hear! “Butter kills!” “Eggs kill!” “Fat kills!” “Salt kills!” “Coffee kills!” Etc.

catweazle666
Reply to  CC Reader
October 5, 2017 6:34 pm

And always bear in mind that life is a sexually transmitted condition that is INVARIABLY FATAL.

Gordon
October 4, 2017 10:47 pm

This may the best chance for science to come clean! There is way too much fake science published.

richard verney
Reply to  Gordon
October 5, 2017 1:07 am

How do you come clean when there is a trillion dollar industry based upon this shaky science?
It would cause a financial crash as all the green companies folded as subsidies are withdrawn.
It would cause huge black holes in the government finances as green taxes are withdrawn and would need to be replaced with some other revenue stream/new tax (since Governments never reduce spending or the size of the State),
And not forgetting that there are hundreds of developing nations (and the dictators of some of these) starved of cash, and how will they buy weapons from the West if the West does not give them money to buy these weapons?.
It is naive to think that the science will come clean, or be allowed to come clean. It will limp on, the data will continue to be be massaged etc., until it is absolutely impossible to deny the facts thrown at it by mother nature.

Reply to  richard verney
October 5, 2017 2:44 am

The subsidies could be used, at least in part, to plug that “black hole” you talk about, Richard.

Doug
Reply to  richard verney
October 5, 2017 4:55 am

Bingo Richard

commieBob
Reply to  Gordon
October 5, 2017 2:06 am

This may the best chance for science to come clean!

In a sense, science has come clean. The knowledge of science’s problems is widely published. The issue is whether anyone can do anything to fix those problems.
The replication crisis is widely acknowledged. It affects all areas of science, even engineering.
The problem is most obvious in medical research. That’s because, when a drug company finds promising research, the first thing it tries to do is to replicate the research. The vast majority (as much as 90%) of the time the published results can’t be replicated or reproduced. A large fraction of the time the original researchers can’t even reproduce their own results.
Reports have been published by drug companies. A popular press book, Rigor Mortis, lays out the problem in all its gory detail. It really is the elephant in the room.
I haven’t seen anyone try to refute the fact that most published research findings are false. link Some folks will insist that it isn’t a problem because science is self correcting. The problem with that is that the corrections can take decades. Other folks, Dr. Michel Mann being a prime example, will ignore the problem and insist that science is infallible. He doesn’t actually make any arguments that refute the reproducibility crisis. In fact, public statements by scientists usually demand that we use science ‘facts’ as the basis for public policy. IMHO, that’s close to criminal because they know better.
The problem is that the foundations of modern science guarantee bad science. Scientists compete for grants and they compete to get their research published. There are rewards for interesting results. There are no punishments for being wrong.
Medicine is the one branch of science where people are trying to reproduce and replicate research. In most other branches, there is no incentive to do that. Anyone who thinks the problem doesn’t pervade all of science, especially climate science, is living in cloud cuckoo land.
The problem is exacerbated because aggressive, prominent, scientists can shut down research and publications that conflict with their own. The self correcting nature of science can’t kick in until those folks are dead and buried.
Scientists know the problems. The problems are widely published. How we solve those problems is beyond me.

Leonard Lane
October 4, 2017 10:48 pm

Citing each others publications is good for their science citation index and list and puts money in your pals wallet as he puts money in yours, and yours,…
This is so common in some most scientific fields and universities. This practice is phony and lets all n of the authors get a citation and they in turn cite all the same n authors… and the groups builds up its citation index very fast, especially for large n of 6,8,10, 15, or 20…
Unless I really need something from one these large number of authors papers, I usually skip it and only read the papers with 1 or a few authors.

David Cage
October 4, 2017 10:51 pm

Applied science is engineering now we are basing our energy policies on it so normal engineering practices of quality control should be applied and not mere peer review which is subject to far too much crony backscratching . The moment we are forced to spend money on any physical constructs then science should be properly vetted by engineers for data quality and computer model quality at the least and I think it should be additionally vetted for the method used to predict normal climate progression which I think most engineers would consider unduly primitive.
Climate change is already bad for science as some very able young people who are not brainwashed by climate dogma are avoiding the subject as they are unwilling to promote climate change belief by spouting it in their exams as required for a good grade. Not spouting the dogma lowers the exam grade to one that precludes higher education.
There should be no controversy on climate change. We now have hindsight to say that the claims were either incompetence or overt fraud. The hundred months is up and they were simply wrong. We were rushed into an expensive and inadequate replacement for fossil fuels that again hindsight has proved to be expensive and unreliable.
Climate scientists have no right to even expect to believed on any new claims without total external examination by an aggressively enquiring group of disbelievers being convinced they have learned from their mistakes. One of the most important lessons they should but clearly have not is humility to accept there are specialists in overlapping fields with knowledge far greater than theirs. They are merely climates jobbing builders with little specialist knowledge in many areas.

Michael Carter
October 4, 2017 10:55 pm

I believe that ultimately the controversy will be good for science. While it will be way beyond my lifetime, the day will come when this debacle will be studied in universities as an example of how the scientific method can be hijacked and misconstrued. It is also a fine example of the power of group-think and how so many in society cannot think in a quantitative or logical manner. The very creation of the scientific method was due to a desire to cut through all this stuff. So sad that so many don’t understand or care about its true value. But, I truly believe that in the end it will prevail, as though it may be rather wobbly, it walks hand-in-hand with truth.

Reply to  Michael Carter
October 4, 2017 11:41 pm

The longer this controversy persists, the worse it will be for science. Many who don’t understand science already distrust it. Just wait until the depth of the deception comes to light and the level of distrust will jump through the roof.

LdB
Reply to  co2isnotevil
October 5, 2017 12:56 am

If the climate scientists are wrong Michael is spot on, it will become the most cited example of how to pervert science and fool yourself. I disagree with you CO2isnotevil, science has endured periods of very little trust by public and on far more important concepts than climate science. At the end of the day science provides answers based on knowledge, it takes just one person knowing a vital science fact the entire world doesn’t for that person to have huge science value. That is why great science men in history have triumphed over churches, kings and public opinion.

richard verney
Reply to  co2isnotevil
October 5, 2017 1:19 am

And who are the greats of science?
Generally, it is either those that showed us what we thought was true, was in fact wrong, or those that showed us something new and not previously known.
Whilst Climate Science is trivial in the scientific sense, in the overall scheme of science, never before has any one scientific theory (and of course AGW is conjecture, not theory) had so much money spent on it, and had society change for the worse.
Climate Science has hampered growth, wealth creation and money being spent on more useful and important causes. Whilst it is naive to think that all the money wasted on Climate Science and the green renewable industry would have been spent on good causes, even if just a fraction of this money had been spent on good causes, it would have saved millions of lives, or at any rate brought a far better quality of life to many.

Roger Knights
Reply to  co2isnotevil
October 5, 2017 5:53 am

LdB: science has endured periods of very little trust by public and on far more important concepts than climate science. At the end of the day science provides answers based on knowledge, it takes just one person knowing a vital science fact the entire world doesn’t for that person to have huge science value. That is why great science men in history have triumphed over churches, kings and public opinion.

What if “the end of the day” is a new dark age?

Roger Knights
Reply to  co2isnotevil
October 5, 2017 5:58 am

PS: “What if “the end of the day” is a new dark age?” As Robinson Jeffers wrote, in “Teheran”:

How rapidly civilization coarsens and decays; its better qualities, foresight, humaneness, disinterested
Respect for the truth, die first; its worst will be last

AndyE
Reply to  co2isnotevil
October 5, 2017 9:38 am

“Roger Knights” – What if “the end of the day” is a new dark age. During recorded, civilised history we have for ever suffered returns to “darker ages”. We are slow learners. Back-tracking on periods of enlightenments happen all the time. The sudden, amazing Greek Civilisation soon crumbled, suffering “death by a thousand cuts”, the Roman likewise, our own “Enlightenment” (18th century’s Europe) has experienced lots of localised returns to “darker ages”, e.g. slavery in America, Nazism, Lysenko in Russia, McCarthyism in U.S., etc., etc. We must be forever on guard – and forever aware of “dark forces”.

MarkW
Reply to  Michael Carter
October 5, 2017 7:16 am

We’ve already got Lysenko as an example of political corruption of science.
While it is studied, it doesn’t seem to impact any of the major players in this drama.

knr
October 4, 2017 11:43 pm

A better question would be, is the practice seen in climate ‘science’ good for science in general. The answer to which is a big fat no. Pal or self ‘review’ seen in this article is merely one of the many problems that has meant that poor scientific practice is no merely acceptable but positively rewarded.

Flynn
October 4, 2017 11:56 pm

statistical bias FTW !

LdB
October 5, 2017 12:46 am

Science doesn’t care for debates nor does it care for opinions or qualifications. Throughout history there have been Popes, Churches, Kings, Despots, Nobel laureates, Science Leaders and public opinion against findings of science and it did not care a less. General Relativity and QM are examples of theories are the establish science theories despite what probably most of the world population and some scientists think of them. No body has ever been able to prove them wrong and they have made predictions classic physics gets totally wrong so they stand.
Where climate science is failing is it is trying to force closure of argument based on what is really a political agenda. You see scientists still having to talk to audiences about QM and it is coming up to 100 years since it’s discovery and is the most proven theory we have in science, which has no competing theories to it. Yet probably 90% of the audience will still not believe and we don’t call for rounding up or prosecution of the non believers.
What is strange is watching something that calls itself a science acting in a way that is unscientific and dare we say dictatorial way.

TonyN
October 5, 2017 1:05 am

Really, this kind of corruption can only happen when the activity is funded by the state. It is a kind of rent-seeking behaviour. In the UK we had the same corrupting influence via the state-funding of the Arts. Proving it was a relatively simple exercise, and the result has been a severe reduction in state funding, a consequent pruning of the Arts-funding apparat, and a consequent improvement in the health of the Arts per se.
Andrew Pinnock’s brilliantly simple and unassailable procedure, described in his paper “The Gramppian Hills: an empirical test for rent-seeking behaviour in the arts” met with no serious opposition from those most affected by the reduction in funding, despite the huge power of their lobby.
I recommend a read of his report, as it might provide inspiration for a latter-day Luther to nail those who are corrupting the scientific process.
https://core.ac.uk/display/1462409

October 5, 2017 2:41 am

Science is supposed to be self-correcting. Therefore, each more recent science controversy is less good for science then the previous e.g. phlogiston.
The novelty in this latest controversy is it tests the code of ethics by those demanding public funds on controversial grounds (i.e. fighting anthropogenic climate change or whatever they’ll settle as a name for it one day.)
The UN code of ethics
i) lists the following values: independence; loyalty; impartiality; integrity; accountability; respect of human rights. I’ve observed more loyalty than any other value so far.
ii) list the following principles: conflict of interest; abuse of power; gifts, honours, favours or other benefits; UN resources; confidentiality of information; post-employment.
iii) applies to UN staff, volunteers and experts as well as
iv) includes an obligation to whistle-blow.

Tom Halla
October 5, 2017 3:56 am

There is the problem of political influence by “scientific” advocates of one position over funding of anyone else investigating the general subject. An extreme is Lysenko having such political support that his opponents were purged, to use a nasty euphemism.
This was an extreme of politics in “research”, where the goal is reinforcing an orthodoxy found useful by the funding agencies. I would argue it is also no longer actual research, hence use of sarcastic scare quotes.

October 5, 2017 4:12 am

Thanks Craig Idso for reminding us there is already extensive red team documentation in place.

dennis avery
October 5, 2017 5:10 am

The paleoclimatic research that Fred Singer and I cited in Unstoppable Global Warming shed vastly more light on the history of earth’s climate- – and its likely future – – than anything else we could present.

Suma
October 5, 2017 5:26 am

The Scientific review process in climate science should be under severe scrutiny. The editors of most of the top ranking journals are from IPCC author list. They hardly consider any publication that has a slightest opposing view about the scary CO2 theory. They try to suppress the actual truth from publishing by any means. If the first two reviewers give revision comments, editor invites one reviewer from the editorial board who put few lines comment to reject the publication. The comments are usually out of context and show that reviewer is not much familiar with the area of study. This is one example of discouraging that publication. Even to get a response for the first review report takes an unusual delay. I have a number of practical experiences of receiving even first review report from top journals in one year time and also had to write several reminders for that. On the contrary, some of my colleges, who are involved promoting CO2 agenda can publish unusually fast. To put fairness in the system, few points:
1. There should be an open list to check who is getting favour from the Editors.
2. Some forum where scientists can raise their personal issues relating to the unfairness of peer review system.
2. The journals involved in such practice of suppressing the scientific truth in climate science should be marked in public. The editor/ chief editor responsible for such practices should be named and they should clarify their position to an independent body.
3. In every top-ranking journal, a section of publication should cover areas of natural influence.
Many of my colleagues in climate science are very frustrated about such biases in peer review systems. It is very unfair on them who are putting hard effort for the scientific truth. Those top-ranked journals who are only in favour of promoting scary CO2 theory and suppressing the opposing view should be identified and such issues need to be addressed seriously for the credibility of the peer-reviewing system.

Roger Knights
Reply to  Suma
October 5, 2017 6:05 am

What’s needed, maybe, is a “science court” to which appeals can be made when the scientific process is not, allegedly, working properly.

MarkW
Reply to  Roger Knights
October 5, 2017 7:19 am

Who guards the guardians?
What happens when the members of this so called court get taken over the way so many journal editors have been?

Roger Knights
Reply to  Roger Knights
October 5, 2017 12:06 pm

: The decision of the judges wouldn’t necessarily be the only point of a science court. (Google for it for more details.) The point would be that it would be a forum in which group-thinkers could be forced to defend their case and submit to cross-examination and “disclosure” (or their supporting materials, lab notebooks, etc.). A transcript of the proceedings would be very valuable, regardless of whether the judges were corrupted.
It’s unlike the judges, selected from the national pool of the most renowned and respected retired scientists, would ever get nearly as badly blinkered and corrupted as members of a niche group of group-thinkers and crusaders.

Jack Dale
Reply to  Suma
October 6, 2017 7:35 pm

You might be interested in the email I send Donna Laframboise (after her posting on GWPF) to which she never responded
I read “PEER REVIEW Why skepticism is essential” this weekend and feel the need to comment.
You state “If half of all peer-reviewed research ‘may simply be untrue’, half of all climate research may also be untrue. ” While you present many examples from fields such as medicine, physics, etc., you do not include one specific documented example from the field of climate science. Let me provide some.
1) Soon and Baliunas, 2003
2) Spencer and Braswell, 2011
As you must know, in both cases editors resigned after it was realized that the peer view process was seriously flawed.
In the Spring of 2003, Soon and Baliunas, with three additional co-authors, published a longer version of the paper in Energy and Environment. When asked about the publication in the Spring of 2003 of the revised version of the paper at the center of the Soon and Baliunas controversy, Sonja Boehmer-Christiansen said, “I’m following my political agenda — a bit, anyway. But isn’t that the right of the editor?”
+++++++++++++++++
In another case the publisher of a journal ceased publication after it was clear that the peer-review process for a special edition of the journal was highly flawed.
From the Copernicus Publications website.
Copernicus Publications started publishing the journal Pattern Recognition in Physics (PRP) in March 2013. The journal idea was brought to Copernicus’ attention and was taken rather critically in the beginning, since the designated Editors-in-Chief were mentioned in the context of the debates of climate skeptics. However, the initiators asserted that the aim of the journal was to publish articles about patterns recognized in the full spectrum of physical disciplines rather than to focus on climate-research-related topics.
Recently, a special issue was compiled entitled “Pattern in solar variability, their planetary origin and terrestrial impacts”. Besides papers dealing with the observed patterns in the heliosphere, the special issue editors ultimately submitted their conclusions in which they “doubt the continued, even accelerated, warming as claimed by the IPCC project” (Pattern Recogn. Phys., 1, 205–206, 2013).
Copernicus Publications published the work and other special issue papers to provide the spectrum of the related papers to the scientists for their individual judgment. Following best practice in scholarly publishing, published articles cannot be removed afterwards.
In addition, the editors selected the referees on a nepotistic basis, which we regard as malpractice in scientific publishing and not in accordance with our publication ethics we expect to be followed by the editors.
Therefore, we at Copernicus Publications wish to distance ourselves from the apparent misuse of the originally agreed aims & scope of the journal as well as the malpractice regarding the review process, and decided on 17 January 2014 to cease the publication of PRP. Of course, scientific dispute is controversial and should allow contradictory opinions which can then be discussed within the scientific community. However, the recent developments including the expressed implications (see above) have led us to this drastic decision.
++++++++++++++
You further state “Reproducibility is the backbone of sound science.” I agree. The hockey stick has been reproduced at least 38 times using different data sets and different methodologies by different researchers.
While these examples of flawed peer-review come from “denialists” (to use the term employed Dr. Carl Mears of RSS), I am sure with your investigative skills you can find similarly egregious examples by “affirmers” of climate science. I would appreciate seeing those.

MarkW
October 5, 2017 7:09 am

Controversy, per se, is never bad for science. It just shows that the process is working as designed.
Now the ways in which the warmists have abused the process is bad for science.

MarkW
October 5, 2017 7:11 am

The fact that the IPCC authors tended to cite their own work, rather than the work of others, is also evidence of how small the circle of warmist scientists really is.

Reply to  MarkW
October 5, 2017 7:25 am

‘I’ll be judge, I’ll be jury,’
said cunning old Fury.

ScottM
Reply to  MarkW
October 5, 2017 1:29 pm

Genuine questioning of assumptions is good for science. Disingenuous manufactured controversy, however, is not — it only indoctrinates the lay public, and because it is based on unsound reasoning and already discredited notions, is useless at best (and a diversion of time and resources at worst) to those actually doing the science.

Reply to  MarkW
October 5, 2017 2:20 pm

But surely the citations are even more important if they refer to the greatest scientists in the word, evah!
And that’s what these scientists are doing.
(In their opinion).

The Other Steven Fraser
October 5, 2017 8:46 am

I used to have great respect for Scientist, believing that they would settle any questions using facts, not feelings or emotions.
The entire global warming/climate change issue dealt that image a huge blow that it will not recover from.
There is one good thing about all this: I’m now deeply skeptical of anything anyone claims on any subject.
I’ve been lied to, too many times, by too many people and too many organizations I once respected.

TA
Reply to  The Other Steven Fraser
October 5, 2017 7:06 pm

“There is one good thing about all this: I’m now deeply skeptical of anything anyone claims on any subject.”
I think that is the proper attitude to have, Steven. 🙂

October 5, 2017 9:03 am

The climate change debate is good for science like the Vietnam War was good for the USA. Some lessons were learned, but at what cost?

October 5, 2017 10:00 am
Jack Dale
Reply to  Hans Erren
October 5, 2017 10:49 am

No.

gene watson
October 5, 2017 10:52 am

The academic scam is healthy and growing where you review my work favorably and I review yours the same – it’s called ‘pal review’. Also, I bestow honors upon you and you return the favor; I create symposia and invite you to deliver the keynote address and you reciprocate, always at some exotic location with travel paid for by govt. grants. We provide each other with endless opportunities to engorge our bogus bio’s making it easy to receive grant $$$ and get promotions and awards. An on and on until retirement. The academic scam paradigm is passed on to our graduate students who proceed to perfect it.
Enough already!

Jack Dale
October 5, 2017 3:47 pm

Number of science academies representing millions of scientists in any country on the planet that dispute the conclusions of the IPCC = 0
Number of science academies representing millions of scientists in any country on the planet that endorse the conclusions of the NIPCC = 0

TonyM
Reply to  Jack Dale
October 6, 2017 9:51 am

Number of science academies representing millions of scientists in any country on the planet which can provide a clear, quantified, falsifiable hypothesis of climate change = 0
Number of science academies representing millions of scientists in any country on the planet that can point to a replicable, controlled experiment or evidence to support this non-existent hypothesis = 0

Jack Dale
Reply to  TonyM
October 6, 2017 2:54 pm

Tony if you think there is no evidence to support AGW, you are living a highly sheltered existence here and other similar sites. Expand your repertoire; start here: https://youtu.be/gIUN5ziSfNc

Jack Dale
Reply to  TonyM
October 6, 2017 3:49 pm

Number of planets available to used a the control variable in an experiment = 0

sunsettommy
Reply to  Jack Dale
October 6, 2017 10:12 am

Jack,
Consensus fallacies is a mark of the illiterate,which is what you make clear here.
I think I already told you that there are a few thousand published science papers that doesn’t agree with the so called consensus anyway.

Jack Dale
Reply to  sunsettommy
October 6, 2017 3:01 pm

You may wish to read Thomas Kuhn, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, especially the postscript, to understand the role of consensus on scientific paradigms. Here is the Cliff’s Notes version:
https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/thomas-kuhn/#3
Please take note of how many times the term “consensus” is used.
Yes, you have told be about a few thousand papers that do not support the consensus. I am skeptical of your assertion. Please show me the DOIs of those papers.

sunsettommy
Reply to  Jack Dale
October 6, 2017 4:28 pm

Jack, there is plenty of evidence that doesn’t support the AGW conjecture:
You write,
” Tony if you think there is no evidence to support AGW, you are living a highly sheltered existence here and other similar sites.”
Here is one from the IPCC report that most warmists long abandoned,because it gravely damages the AGW conjecture.
IPCC 2007,
“For the next two decades, a warming of about 0.2°C per decade is projected for a range of SRES emission scenarios. Even if the concentrations of all greenhouse gases and aerosols had been kept constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.1°C per decade would be expected.”
They predict the same .30C PER DECADE rate based on the “business as usual” scenario as they did in the 1990 IPCC report.
Satellite data says:
1990-2017 about .14C per decade rate.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/graph/rss/from:1990/mean:12/plot/rss/from:1990/trend
2001-2017 about .10C per decade rate.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/graph/rss/from:2001/mean:12/plot/rss/from:2001/trend
Not even close,Jack.

sunsettommy
October 6, 2017 3:50 pm

Jack, here are some examples of consensus that was overturned by a single person,but sometimes took decades to a century for Consensus error to be noticed:
J.Harlan Bretz is one such man who had to fight for FIFTY years against the prevailing UNIFORMITARIANISM doctrine (Consensus), to show what caused the Channeled Scabland in Eastern Washington,
1) J Harlen Bretz
And The Great Scabland Debate
Sean D. Pitman, M.D.
© April 2004
“One of the most interesting debates in the history of geology has to do with the origins of the Channeled Scabland region in eastern Washington State – so named by J Harlen Bretz because of the region’s distinctive channels with intervening “scabs” of loess or soil covering the underlying basaltic rock. But how, exactly, were these channels and scabs formed? Were they formed over millions of years of time by process of erosion currently active in the region or were they formed by some other means?
By the time of the early twentieth century, the most prominent scientists of the day were decidedly “uniformitarian” in their thinking.1,2 That is, they believed that the regular observed processes of usual geologic events acting over vast periods of time were able to explain most if not all of the observed geologic record. J Harlen Bretz, who earned his Ph.D. in geology from the University of Chicago, was the first geologist to seriously challenge this notion, but it was by no means an easy. The process to change the prevailing dogma of the day was a tremendous struggle for Bretz despite his use of a great deal of very good evidence – and that is what is most interesting about this story.
Many people think that scientists are dispassionate in their investigations, conclusions and their general search for truth. As we will soon discover, most scientists have always been very passionate people who, just like most of the rest of us, do not like to admit a long-held error even in the face of otherwise overwhelming evidence.”
Harlan had to fight against that long held consensus,which he succeeded after a few decades with evidence that became so overwhelming that it was finally admitted even by the most dogmatic geologists of the day as show here when he was recognized for his work:
“Bretz’s remarkable work was built painstakingly over many years, but he had to fight great opposition for many decades for its final acceptance. Finally, in 1979, the geological establishment publicly acknowledged Bretz’s work by awarding him the prestigious Penrose Medal – the most prestigious honor in the field of geology.3 Bretz was in his late 90s, and had been holding the line for more than 50 years before finally realizing general acceptance of his “insane” catastrophic model for the formation of the Channeled Scablands of eastern Washington State.”
http://www.detectingdesign.com/harlenbretz.html
2) When Continental Drift Was Considered Pseudoscience
By Richard Conniff
Smithsonian Magazine
June 20012
“It was a century ago this spring that a little-known German meteorologist named Alfred Wegener proposed that the continents had once been massed together in a single supercontinent and then gradually drifted apart. He was, of course, right. Continental drift and the more recent science of plate tectonics are now the bedrock of modern geology, helping to answer vital questions like where to find precious oil and mineral deposits, and how to keep San Francisco upright. But in Wegener’s day, geological thinking stood firmly on a solid earth where continents and oceans were permanent features.
We like to imagine that knowledge advances fact upon dispassionate fact to reveal precise and irrefutable truths. But there is hardly a better example of just how messy and emotional science can be than Wegener’s discovery of the vast, turbulent forces moving within the earth’s crust. As often happens when confronted with difficult new ideas, the establishment joined ranks and tore holes in his theories, mocked his evidence and maligned his character. It might have been the end of a lesser man, but as with the vicious battles over topics ranging from Darwinian evolution to climate change, the conflict ultimately worked to the benefit of scientific truth.
The idea that smashed the old orthodoxy got its start on Christmas 1910, as Wegener (the W is pronounced like a V) browsed through a friend’s new atlas. Others before him had noticed that the Atlantic coast of Brazil looked as if it might once have been tucked up against West Africa, like a couple spooning in bed. But no one had made much of it, and Wegener was hardly the logical choice to show what they had been missing. He was a lecturer at Marburg University, not merely untenured but unsalaried, and his specialties were meteorology and astronomy, not geology.
But Wegener was not timid about disciplinary boundaries, or much else. He was an Arctic explorer and a record-setting balloonist, and when his scientific mentor and future father-in-law advised him to be cautious in his theorizing, Wegener replied, “Why should we hesitate to toss the old views overboard?”
He cut out maps of the continents, stretching them to show how they might have looked before the landscape crumpled up into mountain ridges. Then he fit them together on a globe, like jigsaw-puzzle pieces, to form the supercontinent he called Pangaea (joining the Greek words for “all” and “earth”). Next he assembled the evidence that plants and animals on opposite sides of the oceans were often strikingly similar: It wasn’t just that the marsupials in Australia and South America looked alike; so did the flatworms that parasitized them. Finally, he pointed out how layered geological formations often dropped off on one side of an ocean and picked up again on the other, as if someone had torn a newspaper page in two and yet you could read across the tear.
Wegener called his idea “continental displacement” and presented it in a lecture to Frankfurt’s Geological Association early in 1912. The minutes of the meeting noted that there was “no discussion due to the advanced hour,” much as when Darwinian evolution made its debut. Wegener published his idea in an article that April to no great notice. Later, recovering from wounds he suffered while fighting for Germany during World War I, he developed his idea in a book, The Origin of Continents and Oceans, published in German in 1915. When it was published in English, in 1922, the intellectual fireworks exploded.
Lingering anti-German sentiment no doubt intensified the attacks, but German geologists piled on, too, scorning what they called Wegener’s “delirious ravings” and other symptoms of “moving crust disease and wandering pole plague.” The British ridiculed him for distorting the continents to make them fit and, more damningly, for not describing a credible mechanism powerful enough to move continents. At a Royal Geographical Society meeting, an audience member thanked the speaker for having blown Wegener’s theory to bits—then thanked the absent “Professor Wegener for offering himself for the explosion.”
But it was the Americans who came down hardest against continental drift. A paleontologist called it “Germanic pseudo­-science” and accused Wegener of toying with the evidence to spin himself into “a state of auto-intoxication.” Wegener’s lack of geological credentials troubled another critic, who declared that it was “wrong for a stranger to the facts he handles to generalize from them.” He then produced his own cutout continents to demonstrate how awkwardly they fit together. It was geology’s equivalent of O.J. Simpson’s glove.”
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/when-continental-drift-was-considered-pseudoscience-90353214/
It took FORTY years before his basic hypothesis gained support,but ONLY after those Consensus loving old geologists died off.
“The turnabout on his theory came relatively quickly, in the mid-1960s, as older geologists died off and younger ones began to accumulate proof of seafloor spreading and vast tectonic plates grinding across one another deep within the earth.”
There are many more examples of Consensus failures. I never read Thomas Kuhn talking about consensus failures in his book,have you Jack?
Science runs on Reproducible research,not Consensus.That is what many science illiterates like you never understand.

Jack Dale
Reply to  sunsettommy
October 6, 2017 7:07 pm

“Science runs on Reproducible research,not Consensus.That is what many science illiterates like you never understand.”
Over 3 dozen hockey sticks by different researchers using different data sets.
http://environmentalforest.blogspot.ca/2013/10/enough-hockey-sticks-for-team.html
How about that for reproducible research? See my other comment where I listed them.
BTW – The CLOUD experiment at CERN cannot reproduce Svensmark’s hyopthesis.

sunsettommy
Reply to  Jack Dale
October 6, 2017 10:06 pm

I gave you several examples of failed consensus,you didn’t accept the well supported evidence. That means your consensus claims are not a valid measure for advancing science. It is published reproducible research that drives science forward not consensus pablums.
There are many more examples of Consensus that were wrong,you ignored it. I have already proved that Consensus is a NOT a valid measure in support of science research. It doesn’t shed light on a science subject,reproducible research can do that,it takes just ONE paper, to overturn a dogma, Bretz and Wegener did just that.
You can’t ignore it,Jack.
Then you run on about ‘Hockey Stick” paper that doesn’t even cover the Southern Hemisphere,was convincingly exposed to use improper statistical methods and relied on a poor database of tree rings,which wasn’t even based on temperature at all.. He published a later paper that restored the well supported MWP and LIA.
The Wegman and NAS reports both substantially agree that it was a deeply flawed paper. Mann was forced to post a errata after McIntyre and McKitrick published a paper showing the obvious flaws of the paper.

Jack Dale
Reply to  sunsettommy
October 6, 2017 7:15 pm

Having read “Four Revolutions in the Earth Sciences: From Heresy to Truth” by James Powell (https://www.amazon.com/James-Lawrence-Powell-Revolutions-Sciences/dp/B00RWQLOXM/ref=asap_bc?ie=UTF8) I am well of aware of individuals who have challenged the consensus.
If you are interested in those who challenge consensus, it is quite readable.
One individual you seem to conveniently forget is Guy Callendar who challenged the existing paradigm on climate change
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.49706427503/abstract
You also could have included Einstein. Kenneth Richards at your beloved onetrickzone reminds me of Philipp Lenard.

Reply to  sunsettommy
October 6, 2017 7:42 pm

The continental drift hypothesis gained very little acceptance, largely because nobody, including Wegener, could conceive of a mechanism that would cause it.
What presaged the acceptance of continental drift was the International Geophysical Year in 1957, which (among many other things) led to widespread magnetic surveys of the oceans and the recognition of those remarkable offsetting faults that couldn’t be explained.
Then in 1965, J. Tuzo Wilson became aware of the Matthews-Vine hypothesis, based on their work on the Red Sea rift, that new oceanic crust was being formed at mid-ocean ridges. Wilson developed the theory of transform faults, that what looked like right-handed displacements of the oceans’ magnetic stripes were actually left handed displacements (and vice versa). He also asked the really key question – if new crust is formed at mid-ocean ridges, what happens to old oceanic crust? And plate tectonics was born. Just like that. The mechanism that drives continental drift was explained.
The point of this comment being that Wegener simply had no data that would have allowed him to hypothesize a mechanism for drift, so his theory was marginalized until the data was available. That’s why the consensus was maintained, although the ridicule was superfluous. When Wilson laid out his ideas in a series of seminars (Geophysics Department, Cambridge, 1965, I was an undergraduate and I was there, and you could feel the excitement and Wilson is still my hero), everyone said “OMG why didn’t I think of that?” regardless of their ages. It had nothing to do with “older generations dying off”.

“Wegener’s discovery of the vast, turbulent forces moving within the earth’s crust”

is a bit of a reach. He didn’t discover any forces, although he (erroneously) postulated some. In fact, those forces (in the mantle, not the crust) are still not fully understood. For example, there is an active debate going on about the existence of mantle “hot spots” with a consensus that says hot spots exist, and a much smaller group of skeptics, who say they don’t. The debate is played out in journals and symposia, and it’s done with politeness and respect from both sides, no insults, no calls for prosecution of skeptics, no spurious assertions of funding from sinister corporations. When you see a debate like that, you realise that anyone calling the AGW fracas a “debate” hasn’t really looked at it. It has more in common with the battle of the Somme than a debate.
Sorry for going on, but when you’ve seen a scientific revolution up close, it makes an impression that tends to stay with you.

Jack Dale
Reply to  Smart Rock
October 6, 2017 7:57 pm

Actually you were quite succinct. Thanks.

sunsettommy
Reply to  Smart Rock
October 6, 2017 10:31 pm

That is a fine comment,Smart Rock.
However Wegener was initially correct that there obvious evidence of continents drifting,but never really could explain HOW they drift. What he did was show clear evidence that at one time continents were joined,using several lines of evidence of plant/animal species,and rock formations. This was met with hostility,as shown in the article:
“…Later, recovering from wounds he suffered while fighting for Germany during World War I, he developed his idea in a book, The Origin of Continents and Oceans, published in German in 1915. When it was published in English, in 1922, the intellectual fireworks exploded.
Lingering anti-German sentiment no doubt intensified the attacks, but German geologists piled on, too, scorning what they called Wegener’s “delirious ravings” and other symptoms of “moving crust disease and wandering pole plague.” The British ridiculed him for distorting the continents to make them fit…..”
They had ignored evidence he presented that made his claim that continents were once connected in the past.
The article had pointed out,that he knew this in 1912,published the book in 1915,and translated into English in 1922.
“He cut out maps of the continents, stretching them to show how they might have looked before the landscape crumpled up into mountain ridges. Then he fit them together on a globe, like jigsaw-puzzle pieces, to form the supercontinent he called Pangaea (joining the Greek words for “all” and “earth”). Next he assembled the evidence that plants and animals on opposite sides of the oceans were often strikingly similar: It wasn’t just that the marsupials in Australia and South America looked alike; so did the flatworms that parasitized them. Finally, he pointed out how layered geological formations often dropped off on one side of an ocean and picked up again on the other, as if someone had torn a newspaper page in two and yet you could read across the tear.”
The consensus of that times was in “…Wegener’s day, geological thinking stood firmly on a solid earth where continents and oceans were permanent features.”,which is amusing since they never had evidence that their position was scientifically supportable.
The consensus were wrong,while Wegener who wasn’t even a Geologist, was correct that they do drift. Modern plate tectonics filled in what Wegener couldn’t do,is explain what made them move.
Consensus of his day said they didn’t move,Wegener a single person said there is good evidence they DO move.

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