With the natural disasters of hurricanes Harvey and Irma, we have once again seen the unlimited capacity of politicians and their funding-hungry toadies (climate scientists), and of mainstream media and business persons……to use the misfortunes of others to promote political agendas, and to sell advertising space and product.
There’s no reason for me to cite examples. They’re everywhere. Be my guest and add some to the comments.
Still on holiday.
Ciao!
Bob
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Funniest thing I’ve seen in a while.
Good to hear from you, Bob. Still calling them like they are.
Very clever, if totally wack from a reality perspective.
If you haven’t read Bob Tisdale’s books nor followed his blog, you ain’t sh!t.
He’s baaaaack! https://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/
+1
+1²
=1
1³!
still =1
Depends on the standard deviation and skew of your 1.
1³ is not =1 for large values of 1
For ordinary pre-AGW values of 1,
1³= 1!
Which is always good to keep in mind.
The ! gives the CAGW hype factor, Crispin.
Sqrt(-1)
Is that in your imagination, Ray?
Sorry, Ray. Posted before I thought about your post. The + in the given equation I interpreted as changing the sign of the -1. But it is an imaginary number!
So, if you have, you are? ;>)
Educated, Dan, educated.
So get with the program and read some of his free books and past blog posts, especially his critiques of Karl’s errors in adjusting SSTs with Night Marine Air temperatures. His ENSO explanations are top-notch. https://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2016/05/23/three-free-ebooks-on-global-warming-and-climate-change/
Be a player and contribute to his tip jar; he puts in mega work on his data analyses and presentations. No oil company dollars for him.
I’ve never met him, but Bob Tisdale is the man!
+i^2
=1
Imagine after a dozen years of record setting way above average hurricane landfalls there came a normal year and climate scientists rejoiced that global warming had ceased. People would dismiss them as charlatans.
Imagine after a dozen years of record setting way below average hurricane landfalls there came a normal year and climate scientists rejoiced that global warming was the cause. People would embrace them as prophets.
Irma is the strongest hurricane in history to hit US land based on being on the west side of a penninsula, in the continental U.S., with the most amount of people evacuated, in the second week of September, with 10 construction cranes in operation within the cone, AND record of records, this hurrican toppled a construction crane for the first time EVA! Based on cranes taller than 20 feet.
That oughta do ya. A record event.
And to think, I did not believe in man-made CO2 causing global warming. But with your post …
🙂
The “crane” gamble. What does it cost to take it down, vs have it destroyed and be sued for damages that maybe the insurance companies resolve with tax payer bail out dollars.
It takes several weeks to take down one of those cranes. Taking them down just wasn’t an option.
@MarkW….everybody knows that. lol
Its got more records than there are records. Kinda like voting!
Yes, it’s set a record for records.
But usually in Chicago.
It was really really yuge!
Well, Irma is as bad as Wilma where we survived a near direct hit but from the west after crossing the peninsula. We are now ‘enjoying’ the inner rain bands from Irma now ~110 miles away. Cat 2 gusts for sure based on hurricane glass ‘bubbles’. Technological bubble metric explanation of at Judith Curry in comments. Right now 80 % bubbles, wind very audible at multiple frequencies. Like a freight train going by in Fort Lauderdale, about 110 miles from the Naples eyewall. We will get relief after winds turn S to SSW as eye passes our latitude.
Nature built a 20+ foot crane, so, yeah, that crane coming down was a “Man-made disaster”.
(Sand cranes etc. only have 2 feet.)
DAMN!
“Nature NEVERbuilt a 20+ foot crane..”
(They forgive “Mann et al” for being so wrong. Please forgive me.8-)
Funny. You are nuanced.
Make that two(2) cranes at least.
To be a true record we will have to know the names of the crane operators.
Never in the field of human marketing
Has so much excrement
Been talked by so many
About so little
Te Weather Channel, in its never-ending attempt to exagerate doom and thereby gain interested viewers, is now claiming that this is the first time the U.S. has experienced two Cat 4 hurricanes in the same season. Well, if Irma was a cat 4 at landfall, she made it by the skin of her teeth – by 1 MPH and landfall, I guess they are claiming Key West as the land – that’s more like an island. And as I recall Hurricane Harvey was a Cat 4 for , Oh, about 45 seconds after it made landfall.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E23.html
SAYS IT IS FALSE, IN 1915 2 Cat4
TX was hit by two cat 4 hurricanes (plus two smaller ones – 4 total) in 1886. So…as you might expect…they are talking out of their holes.
Both of those events do not count as they were ground based and damage based analysis, verses over hyped glorified Cat 2 events.
The last time US experienced two hurricanes > Cat 3 in the same season, were in 1979, a Cat 5 (David) and Cat 4 (Frederic) both at landfall.
Sorry there was a later occurrence that I had missed.
In 2008 two hurricanes > Cat 3 in the same season, Cat 4 (Gustav) and Cat 4 (Ike) .
Only the year before (2007) there were two Cat 5 storms in the same season that hit below Mexico, Dean and Felix.
Hurricanes huh. Just like buses. You wait 12 years then 4 come along at once. If only some climate expert had predicted this.
but more seriously God bless America and I hope you all keep safe.
Which of the 4 buses did you ride? Anyway an average of 1 bus every 3 years doesn’t sound like good service. 😉
In rural England once every three years is a luxury. You are more likely to see the Christmas Coca Cola truck 🙂
The Weather Channel and other cable wonks are “reporting” standing out in what appears to be barely tropical-storm force winds. You can’t waltz around chatting in anything much above 60, and they’re doing exactly that. Plus, photos of the “devastation” seem so far to consist of a few uprooted palm trees “newly planted,” at that, a few not-too-deep flooded roads in Miami, and a house demolished by one tornado.
Hmmm . . .
You gotta love it when some reporter, standing on the beach…tells you you’re all going to die if you haven’t left already…and they have him dressed like some rodeo clown
Aren’T the condemned allowed a final request? “Mom I never wanted to work in a superficial circus of pretend that is a weather channel. I always wanted to be a cowboy.”
The even had Jim Catorri wearing a flack jacket and a combat helmet today!
But Latitude …since rodeo clowns are useful…they are trying to at least LOOK useful ..
😉
I’ll say it again, The Weather Channel seems to be trying to keep it factual.
I can just imagine some of the stupid things I’d say after living in motel rooms, suffering sleep deprivation and chasing the eye of a hurricane.
They are working 24/7.
Give them a break ??
It will probably take at least several years to sort out just how much hype the NOAA used in rating the wind speed of Harvey and Irma, and how they really compare to earlier hurricanes. Another thing that might become an issue is the curious quiet in Pacific typhoons now.
I’m firmly convinced they can’t predict sh1t….and they know it
…that’s why they evacuated half the state…they knew they didn’t know where it was going
and if climate models are half as bad as hurricane models…..they couldn’t even predict when the front was coming down to turn it
I have to disagree.
After the fact, Mann predicted that Man caused Harvey to hang out over Houston. He even mentioned weather patterns! (Which he got backwards)
He can’t even get the present right. Trust him for the past or the future?
(I said I disagreed. Maybe I don’t.8-)
The climate scientists have the temperature-hurricane relationship exactly backwards. See, the increased temperature actually discourages hurricane formation, thus the 14-year drought of major hurricanes landfalling on the US.
Finally, natural variation allows two powerful hurricanes to form this season and impact on Texas and Florida. The truth of the matter is, instead of the hurricanes being WORSE than they would have been without the warming (Mann’s claim), the increased temps PREVENTED the hurricanes from being as bad as they would have been before. Mann et al are too hyped on warming=bad to understand that — at least as far as hurricanes go — warming=good.
As stupid hypotheses go, at least this one matches the facts. Kinda.
“The climate scientists have the temperature-hurricane relationship exactly backwards. See, the increased temperature actually discourages hurricane formation, thus the 14-year drought of major hurricanes landfalling on the US.”
James–I wonder if this pick up in strong storms is a reflection of cooling temperatures???
It won’t take years. I predicted that it would not be the case, and I saw my prediction materialize in real time.
It is already over.
They are now simply misleading us, and being inaccurate. If I can figure this out, so can they.
Does anybody know what Irma’s wind speed was when it “made landfall” in the Florida Keys? I know in 2012, they changed the scale so that 130 mph now qualifies as a Category 4. Before 2012, 131 mph was the minimum for Cat 4.
Of course, they did not change the ratings on the older hurricanes, so over time it will appear that we will have had stronger storms after 2012.
Do we always count it as “U.S. Landfall” when it hits an island?
Key West is connected to the US mainland via a solid highway. So I’ll give ’em the benefit of the doubt.
The Daily Beast, Michael Daly: “The playground of big-shot climate-change deniers becomes subject to a hurricane evacuation order as of 5 p.m. Friday.” …”Coulter responded to that earlier calamity with her usual discerning insight, giving a whole other meaning to being all wet. “I don’t believe Hurricane Harvey is God’s punishment for Houston electing a lesbian mayor,” she tweeted. “But that is more credible than ‘climate change.’”
And the mud just keeps flowing.
Funny.
Glad to see you again Bob!
Here is a site that you can see quasi real-time weather station data. There are probably better ways to do this but FWIW here you go. You will need to establish an account.
just looking around I don’t see much over 80mph gusts, and most of the stations are in the 50-60 range
http://mesowest.utah.edu
Thank you.
Vero Beach reports 79 mph gust, oddly enough the winds seem to be stronger on the east coast than near the eyewall.
Noticed that.
I think ( perhaps) a product of the collapsing eye, the energy had to go somewhere so perhaps it expanded out like a figure skater throwing his arms out.
Disclaimer: My post below in no way minimizes the seriousness of any bad situation anybody might be experiencing – it’s open thread so I thought this might be interesting from a high wind experience.
Near where I live (Inyokern, CA) there is a meteorologic anomaly called “Five Mile”. The station is at an elevation of 4150′ or so, on the east slope of the Sierra Nevada which at that point has a crest elevation of about 9,000′. This station is probably the windiest low elevation station in California. This whole east slope area is windy but wind gusts at Five Mile can be twice what nearby stations are reporting. It’s fairly common to see +75 mph there, and once in a while 90+. I’ve been there when gusting over 80 mph – its a 30 minute drive and I’m foolish enough to like high winds. You have to be very careful to orient the vehicle to allow you to open the door to get in or out. The worst would be having the door ripped from your grasp and literally torn off the car, this kind of door damage is common out here. The last time I was there it was blizzard conditions and the little hike from where I parked to the station was pretty epic winter mountaineering like. I have this silly idea that I can conduct some tethered wing suit flying here. I have been in 60-70 mph conditions mountaineering and it’s very difficult to keep your feet – it has crossed my mind that if I jumped into the air I might not come down for a while.
Here is the Five Mile station page url. Some other really windy places are Mammoth Mountain (+11,000) and White Mountain (+14,000). Any place on the Sierra Crest can exceed 120 mph in a winter system.
http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=FMRC1&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL
I want video!!!!!!!!
Kite Sailing! Mount a remote control winch to your truck, let out 100′ of cable down wind, and jump!
As long as it doesn’t stop blowing, it would be epic!
Jim Cantore is running around down near Ft. Meyers in full military body armor!
..and FOX has some reporter in Naples, standing out in the middle of the street…in what’s supposed to be 115 mph winds
Folks, I am in the middle of the second strongest rain/wind band we will ever see from Irma. Tornado warnings rampant, no surprise, and Cat 2 gusts based on our hurricane door gurgle index. I think he is appopriately armored, as there is Cat 2 gust stuff going on right now here in Fort Lauderdale and we are 110 miles west of Naples! Save it til you been there and done that. We have and still are. Blogging is cheap. Science and observational truth is not.
Let me add some observational facts. Our Atlantic coast building in Fort Lauderdale is post Andrew code. 27 stories post Andrew, poured concrete plus steel rebar reinforcement down to bedrock 80 feet below the beach. Security shut down our elevators about 0900 today, and the current sway at 1700 on our 12th of 26 floors dining table chandler is ~ 4 inches roughly circular. In steel plus concrete! Just measured.
We are currently experiencing Cat 2 wind gusts, which most of you cannot imagine. So come live through one here in our guest bedroom, then blog crap. Think a thunderous freight train coming through but never leaving your BR. Some of you discredit skeptics. Learn before you opine. Please.
Keep your head down. My sister lives in Naples, my older brother in Tampa and most of my family is in the Palatka area. Thankfully, my sister is staying with friends in Orlando. I’ve been watching the Weather Underground webcams over the past couple of days… Irma is really bad.
This is the closest webcam to my sister’s condo…
That’s about 10′ ASL. Most of Naples is <5' ASL. 10-15' of storm surge would be devastating… in addition to the winds.
I tried to contact my sister a bit east of Tampa. Voice mail. My message was basically not to call back till Irma has passed.
I’ve got skin in the game.
Why is he even out in “the middle” of Irma in combat gear in front of a camera that is working just fine?
Hype.
PS Tropical Storm Delia is where I learned that the old VW Bug really did float.
PPS What’s “the cause”? Nature does these things.
What’s the hype that Man somehow caused it? Jim Cantore is running around down near Ft. Meyers in full military body armor!
Rud,
I lived through Florida TS and hurricanes in the 1990’s. In 1995 it was Hurricanes Erin and Opal, 2 months apart over my house, convinced me of the error of my ways in choosing to live in their path, 1/4 mile from the intracoastal waterway at 12′ msl.
You’re a smart man. You knew the risks. Yet You purposefully chose to live there. Enjoy the consquences on your own dime.
Twelfth floor will be about 150 feet up. If You have Cat 2 gusts there that probably means Cat 1 gusts at 10 meters.
Here’s Ristvan’s latest (as of now) comment on Climate Etc.
https://judithcurry.com/2017/09/08/hurricane-irma-eyes-florida/#comment-858000
Doesn’t jive with station data: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=pvgf1
Your experience on the 12th floor of a high rise is not exactly representative of what’s going on closer to the ground.
Just realized the Ft. Lauderdale station stopped reporting around 1PM for no evident reason. Here is Miami and Lake Worth Pier to get an idea of what that side of Florida was/is actually experiencing
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=vakf1
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=lkwf1
Winds are less in Naples now. Really.
See link a few posts above.
And no, you are not in sustained 80 mph winds per any ground based readings.
Ristvan, Please explain these consistent low readings…
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/met.html?id=8725110&timezone=LST&units=standard
…and the lack of damage
…and the storm surge being 1/2 or less then the low estimate in the keys and here in Naples where it was 4.2 feet vs 10 to 15 feet predicted.
Damages look NOTHING like Camile or Andrew or Labor day hurricane.
…and this…
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Wind/Current.aspx?location=USFL0372
I watched Cantori stand in the worst of it. A pile of palm frawns behind him never blew away!
The continues read out on the screen showed a peak gust of 84 mph.
These are facts Ristvan. The eye collapsed and the energy dispersed out. Your winds at the time on the surface were not sustained hurricane force winds, but were equal to what was left of the eye.
My daughters live near Tampa. They are all fine.
When I was growing up a local weatherman, long since retired, would give some perspective if there was a record or near record to report. In such a case he would tell you that it was just as hot in 1932 or the former record for this date and area was in 1972 and it was tied in 1992 and so forth. That was honest reporting and he was not misinforming by omission. In most cases to leave the impression that a given weather event is unprecedented is to misinform. If it is unprecedented, then it is still incumbent to provide perspective. By how much is it unprecedented? In the case of hurricanes people should know that they are natural events that have been going on for a very long time.
Part of the problem is that climate trends, patterns, and repeatable events, usually outstrip people’s life spans and in many cases their memory. Many of today’s population were not yet born during Floyd and many may have been in diapers during Katrina. Even people who are older will say something like:” I don’t recall it being this hot before!” People who grew up in the 30’s and 40’s are mostly gone now, and many older people now grew up during a colder period of the post WW2 era.
People who know better have a responsibility to correctly inform.
You get the same honest reporting today. Today’s heat is unprecedented! 1932 is long forgotten. The task for modern schools is to educate illiterate voters with limited mental capabilities.
If you are hit by anything that is travelling at 100mph even salt spray and rain…welll.. you will lose interest in everything except the pain that includes speaking into a microphone. Try heading down the highway on a motorbike at 100ph lift your visor just as you hit a rainstorm. Even on the deck of a boat in a small gale the salt spray can feel like needles entering your face,
Check out the Great Lakes water temps – https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/compare_years/ .
In 2014, the GL were 92.5% covered with ice, it dropped to 88.8% in 2015 and was only 33.8% in 2016. On that GL page, the temps for 2017 are compared to 2016, 2015. I’ve been looking at the page for the last few weeks and the 2017 temps for all the five lakes are already lower than in the other years.So, will there be lots of ice on the Great Lakes this year? It will be interesting to see….
Been rather cold here in Pontiac Michigan this summer and August, but quite hot in Washington state, go figure!
It’s been cooler here in Oklahoma City – think we only had 6 days over 100 degrees this summer. Quite a change from a few years ago when I lost count when it was >60 days. We’re enjoying it.
In Sweden summer temperatures this year never topped 85 F. But it isn’t unprecedented, 1862 was even colder.
I had some spare time and I read some of the unibomber’s manifesto, interesting how he talks about “the psychology of modern leftism”,
http://cyber.eserver.org/unabom.txt
Great to have you back Bob – you have been missed!
Obviously the only way to demonstrate that humans are not causing climate disaster is for hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, and forest fires to end entirely and for all time. The 28,000 people killed in the great hurricanes of 1780 (one in June, three in October) have apparently been forgotten.
FOX news even blew it. 2 Cat4 land falls in the same year? How about 1915, New Orleans, and Galveston. Both Cat 4. This stuff is not that hard to find. Don’t bother to fact check guys, just grab a headline. There’s probably another year as well.
FOX news has been an embarrassment to itself all day.
Shep Smith is talking 120 MPH winds at a location where a NOAA buoy is showing 50kts.
He is truly clueless in matters of meteorology. And the FOX weather bimbo is only trying to keep ratings up. Why not have a meteorologist like a Joe Bastardi who is not paid to get ratings, but to provide useful insight to conditions on instead. Useful insight saves lives. Hype only saves FOX news.
FOX tried to exaggerate the storm surge and had no information to give. Not even actual high of the street they had in focus at Naples in the corner 5th and Park street. They said it is five foot above sea level.
I guess it is 10-15 feet , using Googles street view.
Someone who has the answer?
If Mar a Lago had been on west coast of Florida Irma would’ve been “aiming” for it and the American computer models (not the European one) would’ve reflected that. Tongue in cheek…kinda.
I’m in Orlando, and we’re still just getting the rain and some light winds.
…and an eight foot branch broke off of one of my neighbors’ trees already.
Not looking forward to the actual tropical-storm (and maybe light hurricane) winds tonight. Power’s going out for a day or so, at least – lots of old, sickly live oaks in the neighborhood right next to power lines. I’m just glad my landlord cut down the sixty-footer next to my duplex (not to mention the fifty-foot pine tree right next to my bedroom).