When the sun goes dark, California will lose the equivalent of five nuclear power plants of power.
Martin Rosenberg | Jun 29, 2017 The Energy Times
California is bracing for a significant loss of electric power as its fast-growing fleet of solar electric panels plunge into darkness during a major solar eclipse on August 21.
While the eclipse will be partial in the state, energy planners are getting ready to tap 6,000 megawatts of electricity from other sources between 9 a.m. and noon PDT during the eclipse, according to the California ISO which oversees the electricity markets in America’s most populous state.
The new vulnerability of the massive electric grid to a celestial marvel like an eclipse reflects a massive transformation of how energy is being created and used in America – something most consumers do not ordinarily think about.
In less than two decades, America’s solar power generation has soared heavenward, from a mere 5 megawatts in 2000 to 42,619 megawatts last year.
The 6,000 megawatts California has to cover during the sun’s blackout is a massive amount of energy, the equivalent of the output of a handful of large nuclear
power plants.
Fortunately, California this summer is blessed with 5,000 – 6,000 megawatts of hydroelectric resources as a result of ample snow and rains this past winter and spring, according to Deane Lyon, California ISO shift manager, real-time operations.
“We are planning to use a variety of approaches to this,” Lyon told the Energy Times.
California ISO
At the height of the August eclipse, large utility scale solar farms will lose as much as 76 percent of power in the north while in the south the loss will get to 58 percent.
Above all, the electric market through its price signals will bring enough electric power to the market to serve all, he said. He does not anticipate any repetition of the massive price spikes that occurred in 2000-2001, when Enron manipulated energy shortages and the market to drive electric prices up 20-fold.
“We won’t see anything like the energy withholding crisis,” Lyon said.
California ISO
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In any event, I plan on being on the centerline in Casper with telescope, camera and grandchildren Lord willing and the creek don’t rise. 3rd week in August is not historically a good weather week here in WY. Possible clouds/rain. We’ll see. Don’t really care too much about California or the 60% of their population that are idiots. Feel bad for the 40% who are not.
Solar and wind reverse our previous operating concept of freeing ourselves from nature. Interesting.
this has to be from the Onion … I doubt that there are more than a handful of solar panels in the path of the eclipse … there is no way they lose that much power on their grind … no way …
The path noted on the maps that are circulated is the path of totality.
Partial eclipse conditions extend across a wide area, and it takes several hours from first contact to last contact.
One way to look at it is…the sun is much wider than the moon, so sun shadows are fuzzy.
If any of the solar disc is blocked, power reaching the solar panels is reduced.
This is not mysterious or in question…the sun it not a point source, it is a disc, and solar power comes from the whole disc. (Not sure if the center gives us as much power per unit area as the edges of the sun…good question…anyone know?)
The umbra of the moon barely touches the Earth, which is why sometimes only an annular eclipse occurs.
When it is far away in its varying orbit, the umbra fails to reach earth, but the penumbra still covers us…it is very wide…much wider than the moon itself.
And why some eclipses are very long and some short…if the moon is at a close point in its orbit, like at perigee (and the eccentricity varies over time as well…some perigees are closer than others…hence “super moons”) we go through a wider part of the umbra.
http://www.astronomy.ohio-state.edu/~pogge/Ast161/Unit2/Images/solar.gif
http://www.astronomy.ohio-state.edu/~pogge/Ast161/Images/mir1999.jpg
When the eclipse was first announced, I noted that the most interesting thing about an eclipse would be the reactions of people in isolated locations that were still at the primitive level. They would be frightened and most affected by the eclipse. I had no idea there could be a similar event in an advanced country that foolishly used weather for electrical generation. I suppose advanced planning will prevent it. It’s very fortunate that the permanent drought in California ended or that hydro backup would not be there.
I wonder if Oregon and Washington have this problem. They use a lot of solar too. Of course, they also have a lot of hydro.
Mmmm, Sun go awayway…heep bad juju!
So, the loss of sunlight won’t be a problem as long as there was enough snow over the winter to provide hydro-power.
Welcome to the newest greenie “advancement” of power supplies subject to the whims of astronomical events and weather.
Who gets the H/T for the link? I did submit it. But there may have been others.
The most incredible thing about eclipses is how dramatically they illustrate the incredible coincidence of the similarly in size of the discs of the sun and moon: The sun is about 400 times wider than the moon, but also about 391 times further away.
The size is so similar that the variation in the distance to the moon is the difference between the moon covering the sun for seven minutes or not even covering it up all the way at all.
The astoundingness of this coincidence is hard to overstate…if you are looking for some concrete reason to believe that the Earth (and everything else) was created…this may be all you need.
I mean…what are the odds?
BTW, I am not looking for a theological discussion here…just sayin’.
It is lucky humans were created at the right time.
Yes, the moon is “just passing through” it’s current orbital range, as tidal friction brings it closer and closer.
So they say…looks the same to me 😉
But again…what are the odds?
It was a serious question…anyone know how to calculate what the odds are?
” as tidal friction brings it closer and closer.”
…
You are clueless as to orbital dynamics. Tidal friction slows the Earth’s rotation down, and accelerates the Moon. The Moon is progressively getting further and further away.
….
“First there is a real retardation of the Moon’s angular rate of orbital motion, due to tidal exchange of angular momentum between Earth and Moon. This increases the Moon’s angular momentum around Earth (and moves the Moon to a higher orbit with a lower orbital speed). ”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tidal_acceleration#Earth.E2.80.93Moon_system
And curiously, as the moon accelerates (i.e. F = ma) and spirals to a higher orbit, kinetic energy is converted to potential energy and the result is the moon slows down!
One of the things that impressed me with “rocket science” is how much can be done with just high school physics.
It really helps to have played SpaceWar! too back in the day where you could learn from computer games. 🙂
“Rare Earth”.
Everybody won the lottery!
” The Moon is progressively getting further and further away.”
What he said.
Actually I do have a clue, just not a inside out and backwards knowledge of tidal interactions.
I was thinking I had written that down backwards even as I hit the post comment button.
In any case, it is rather strange, don’t you think, that frictions causes a higher orbit?
Because if I am piloting my spaceship in orbit around Ceti Alpha 5, and I need to get into a higher orbit to avoid being shipjacked by Khan and his minions, I am thinking I need to speed up.
But I also recall in the Larry Niven’s Integral Trees/Smoke Ring novels, the world he created in that was really pretty freaky…especially the parts about figuring out which direction you needed to apply thrust in order to move a certain way…it was not like it is here on the Earf!
Nope!
In fact, i think I will have to read it again…have not done so in a long time.
I never did completely wrap my head around “East takes you Out, Out takes you West, West takes you In, In takes you East. Port and Starboard bring you back”
Last time I remember talking about orbital speeds, and realized my intuition of it was wrong, was during a discussion of construction of a space elevator.
Could it be stable, or not?
Could you just put a large mass in geosynchronous orbit and hang a very strong cable down to Earth?
What forces would act on it?
Oh, and if it was conductive, would it generate power?
two year ago germany also experienced a solar eclipse. There were many predictions that they would have power problems and or blackouts as a result.Neither occurred. Their were no blackouts or grade problems caused by the blackout.
Renewables make up a larger fraction of total power delivered in Germany than in California. In all likelihood california also will have no problems.
When solar systems are installed at a given place, they work out the season output. I remember that in 70s some solar equipment companies & countries asked me the solar energy output at their places as I published some formulae for the estimation of solar and net radiation in an international solar energy journal. I provided them the monthly average estimates along with estimates for few individual years.
A scientist working at ICRISAT [from Germany — von Oppen] in 70s he wanted to rest a pump to lift water from a lake in ICRISAT and he propagated solar cookers. I provided the data on solar energy data.
Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy
So maybe you would know, Dr. Reddy…if the disc of the sun is 80% blocked by the moon, what is the effect on power output?
What about 50%
Is it strictly proportional?
Also, do you know if all points on the disc have the same flux rate?
Or does more power come from the center than the limbs?
It all depends upon the location where you wanted measure — sun’s angle.
Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy
“It all depends upon the location where you wanted measure — sun’s angle”
I am not sure I understand this.
At any given angle, there will be a certain amount of power produced in a clear sky…with no eclipse ongoing.
Given this value is x, and 50% of the solar disc is blocked, is the amount of power received by the panel then going to be 0.5x?
I would think so, but that is just going by intuition.
But that raises another thing I had wondered about over the years…why are panels not mounted on poles with servo motors to keep the panel facing the sun directly at all times of day?
Given the cost of panels, and the value of the power produced, at what price would having a post and motor assembly be cost effective?
In India, government is providing subsidy for solar systems of energy production. These are directly connected power grid — fluctuations in solar power production is not of much importance, but for profit it is important –. Water heating, it is not a problem, battery connected power is not a problem. Here they can be supplemented with grid power. I am using these in my house [for water heating, light, fans, TV, computer, etc] and not to three phased items
Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy
.
I hope Cali is being morally consistent and not taking power from States that insist people with male bits go to the male toilet and people with female bit go to the female toilet. They recently forbade travel to those heinous States that dont align with their view of the world. The may not be able to send college football teams away to some States now, so I trust they will not take tainted electrcity.
forbade government funded travel that is
Would it help if they sacrificed a virgin to the Sun God?
This is bogus. A really good outbreak of the SW Monsoon can dim the sun for hours as opposed to the few minutes that will happen with this.
97% of WUWT commenters agree…solar power is intermittent.
Not entirely off topic: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-science/wp/2017/07/12/a-massive-atmospheric-experiment-is-planned-for-august-solar-eclipse/