Guest essay by Eric Worrall
What do you do when your feeble climate evidence fails to convince?
Climate scientists reveal their fears for the future
Cradling her newborn baby girl, heatwave expert Sarah Perkins Kirkpatrick admits to feeling torn between the joy of motherhood and anxiety over her first-born child’s future.
“I always wanted a big family and I’m thrilled. But my happiness is altered by what I know is coming with climate change,” she said.
“I don’t like to scare people but the future’s not looking very good.
“Having a baby makes it personal. Will this child suffer heatstroke just walking to school?”
…
‘I wouldn’t want to live in Brisbane or further north’
How hot could it get?
All of Australia is vulnerable to climate change but Dr Perkins Kirkpatrick said as the decades progress, some regions will be better off than others in terms of heatwaves.
“We’ve already seen changes in heatwaves, particularly their frequency, and these heatwaves are only going to get worse, particularly in the tropics, where the number of heatwave days will be much greater than now,” she said.
…
Read more: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-06-27/climate-scientists-speak-of-their-worst-fears/8631368
There are plenty of reasons to live North of Brisbane, such as the balmy 73F winter day I’m currently enjoying.
Up here on the edge of the tropics, we have discovered a simple solution to heatwaves, a solution which obviously hasn’t filtered down to our cousins in more temperate regions.
Our solution to heatwaves – stay indoors, crank up the air conditioning. Or wear a hat and drink lots of water, if you have to be outside.
I was born in 1950 in the Netherlands. The cold war was just starting. It must have been deeply worrying. I asked my parents about it. It wasn’t even a consideration.
My advice to the lady: grow some bsckbone, the future’s bright.
Well, basically, there was nothing they could do about nukes, so they put their efforts into things they could control. Others imagined they could do something and spent their time protesting, and so forth, all to no avail. Just like now.
Will this child suffer heatstroke just walking to school?
You’d make your child walk to school on a day so hot that heatstroke is likely? What kind of mother are you Sarah?
Did anyone consider that her brain was ALREADY affected by heat? Maybe she was outside without a hat…
Could someone enlighten me if my memory has not served me well on the following points.
?w=720
! I recently saw a map on WUWT which (I believe starts from the late 80’s) which showed that the US Summertime high temperature has mostly declined. This was a color map of the US Mainland, Australia might be different.
2. As I recall from another map map of the globe, most of the warming has happened in the Arctic regions, virtually none near the equator, and moderate in the regions between the North pole and the equator. http://fs5.directupload.net/images/170304/2x7bkgok.jpg
3. From what I remember most of the recorded warming is associated with an increased daily low (less cool down at night) not higher highs
Is Australia not typical?
Please feel free to correct me if above is not correct
That map is fake or a deliberate lie.
I will be happy to send you the data from which it was made or you can validate the accuracy your self by going to NOAA’s Climate at a Glance
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/
where the data for each state can be analyzed. When you open Climate at a Glance, make the following selections:
Parameter: Maximum Temperature
Time Scale: 4-Month
Month: September
Start Year: 1895
End Year: 2017
State/Region: Alabama
Climate Division/City: Statewide
Under Options
Display Base Period
Start 1901 End: 2000
[ ] Display Trend (check)
(*) per Decade (Select)
Start: 1895 End: 2017
Click on [Plot]
The graph will be displayed with the trend line
(Alabama and other states color coded blue will show a descending trend)
Click on the middle Excel Icon [data in CSV format]
The data should appear:
Alabama, Maximum Temperature, June-September
Units: Degrees Fahrenheit
Base Period: 1901-2000
Missing: -9999
Date,Value,Anomaly
189509,89.2,-0.2
…
201609,91.4,2.0
Do this for all the 48 contiguous states
The other states not coded blue will have to be analyzed to find the earliest date that still yields a descending trend. Use Excel’s slope function to do this. When you determine the year, under Options enter that year under Start: ____ End: 2017
Yes, it is surprising that Maximum temperatures largely trend downwards over much of the United States.
There isn’t a nice handy site like Climate at a Glance to do a similar analysis for the rest of the world.
Simon, are you blind?
Right there on the chart is the source: NOAA Climate at a Glance and the link that is with it. Steve helpfully give you a lot more in his reply to you.
Then you come back calling it BS,posted a link that doesn’t contradict what Steve posted at all. Steve once again comes back to clarify what you didn’t notice or care about. Next time don’t rush to judgement so fast,it will save you looking foolish.
Simon, you’ve got to get out more. You’ve drunk too much KoolAid.
Got a feeling it’s going to be a bad day to be Simon…
This calls BS on the map
http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/recent-us-temperature-trends
No i doesn’t since the map shows “Declining maximum summertime Temperatures.”
Before shouting your prejudices, learn to read.
The link shows average temperatures, this map:
http://oi68.tinypic.com/95vcec.jpg
Shows Maximum Tempertures for the months June through September
Actually it’s a little more comprehensive than that. Declining or flat trends for Maximum temperatures for the six months of the year May through October as this updated map shows:
http://oi67.tinypic.com/10er3ps.jpg
It isn’t for the entire year, just the warm half. Yes, Average and Minimum temperature do not show these trends. Indeed the IPCC tells us that the warming will be at night, and in the winter. Day time temperatures in the summer have declined.
Geez dude read your own propaganda first. If you were the author try your BS someplace else where IQ’s like yours!
Lovely. Poor Simon.
Reply to Simon,
From your link: “On a seasonal basis, long-term warming has been greatest in winter and spring.”
Your storytellers know that the map you call BS on is correct … they want to spin their message to fool the rubes. If your storytellers wanted to be completely honest they would have included …
“On a seasonal basis, long-term warming has been greatest in winter and spring, AND ACTUALLY IT HAS ONLY BEEN WARMING IN THE WINTER AND SPRING. TYPICALLY IT HAS BEEN COOLING IN THE SUMMER”
Your storytellers didn’t lie, but only because there has been no warming in the summer and fall.
Simon, does it bother you that your storytellers feel that they need to spin the information? Does it bother you that they think you are a rube?
Yup, bad day to be Simon.
See my reply to Simon below
See the reply to Simon below:
Thanks to Steve Case and Tim to help enlighten Simon who apparently calls NOAA data “a fake or a deliberate lie”. This is not CNN or MSNBC with fake and deliberate lies although NOAA are known for questionable data adjustments.
I am surprised that Simon did not understand that the plot clearly states “maximum temperature” for the summer months and that NOAA is clearly indicated on the plot. Of course the MSM also misleads “low information” people by not pointing out than the warming is mostly associated with “higher” lows possibly associated with UHI. Other people just don’t care about the facts.
What I take from the plot in question, at least for the US, is that all the claims about heat waves is very misleading since the increase in temperature is not the maximum of the summer day. If the same applies in Australia then the Dr of the story needs to go back to school if she does not know there are not more heat summer waves.
Some bloggers I know just come right out and say NOAA is fake data. Fake or merely questionable, it’s NOAA’s data, and unless some one can show a copy & paste error or more serious error in analyzing NOAA’s Climate at a Glance error, those color coded maps are what they are and can be reproduced.
When new data is added to the time series that color coded map will likely change. It all depends on the weather.
Warmth encourages storks.
She’d better watch out then!
Vivid phantasies but absolutely pathetic. Is she also afraid of Godzilla’s return?
We need more headlines along the lines of “Falling CO2 levels could affect coffee supplies” that will get the Starbucks generations’ attention.
That’s already been happening.
Oops I responded without seeing the word ‘falling’. So used to the other narrative.
Kirkpatrick and her ilk are snowflakes and climatophobes who have come to believe their own scare-mongering. Sad!
These scientists will be subject to emotional bias:
http://judithcurry.com/2015/04/24/contradiction-on-emotional-bias-in-the-climate-domain/
This nonsense about it becoming hotter, “north of Brisbane,” isn’t borne out by the record heatwave holding locations of Oceania according to Wikipedia. I used to think that Australia wasn’t included, and was a separate set of data. In my humble opinion, as a New Zealander, Australia is a continent and therefore it’s data should be treated as such. The area known as ‘Oceania’ which includes many of the islands in the South Pacific including New Zealand, needs to be looked at in isolation from the ‘Great Southern Land.’ If so then the highest temperature ever recorded in Oceania happened at Rangiora near Christchurch in the South Island of New Zealand at latitude 43 south (Brisbane is around 27 south BTW) on February 7th 1973. The temperature that day was 42.4 Celsius (108.3f). The hottest temperatures ever recorded in the ‘islands’ is just over 35C!
Meanwhile on the continent of Australia, their hottest day was recorded at Oodnadatta in South Australia on January 2nd 1960 and exceeded 50C! Not sure of the latitude without looking it up but I’m pretty sure it is well south of Brisbane. That young woman needs to do some research rather than blindly accepting the dibble handed to her by the usual liars!
Can someone explain to me this table found in the cited article?
Days hotter than 35C 2014 2090
Brisbane 12 55
Cairns 3 48
Darwin 11 265
Melbourne 11 24
Sydney 3.1 11
How can Sydney have 3.1 days hotter than 35C? Which is the mean of 0,1 day?
Hopefully she’ll just beep off further south and leave the beautiful Australian tropics to those of us who actually like them.
I love in the tropics and only use the a/c when work like house cleaning needs to be done in the heart of summer. The rest of the time, open windows and fans are fine, although a dip in the pool is often welcome! Right now the weather is pretty much perfect.
Snowflakes are likely to melt here, though… 🙂
I can only think that “mummy brain” is the cause of her stupidity.
No it’s normal greenery thinking.
Ha Ha Ha What a joke!
You might wonder about the bizarre logic that can claim more heatwaves when the temps are not rising
and are now dropping. Generally speaking it wil always be the case that heatwaves can be increasing/decreasing, like all other weather events, in a stable climate.
Selfish, lying, greedy, hypocritical, etc etc etc
Speak plainly OK…
1. That you take a double barrelled name speaks volumes.
2. Grown up and educated girls DO NOT accidentally get pregnant.
3. Maybe you had an irresistible urge – at least be good enough to admit as much.
4. Maybe you summed up the pros and cons and decided you *did* have the resources (financial, emotional etc) to bring a child into the world. Be good enough to admit as much.
5. Finally lady, you are on a Government payroll. The resources you take for granted, which are never enough of course and the entire basis of ‘Romance’ and ‘Un-Romance’ = divorce) came from tax payers.
Ordinary folks doing dirty horrible jobs that double barrelled people consider way way below them.
Fine lady, you take away your own sewage from now on.
Lady, you are a modern day Marie Antoinette. In a Glass House.
How apt, would that be a Glass GreenHouse by any chance? If it is, explain the GHGE in your own words.
Try to consider those before you open your mouth, or before you ‘accidentally’ get pregnant again (I was nearly really rather crude there, hope you didn’t notice) so as to harvest ever more Government Largesse (‘Maternity Benefit/Leave, Paternity benefits, tax credits, family allowance etc etc – assuming similar schemes to what we have in the UK)
…The 33-year-old lives in Sydney and studies heatwaves as a senior research fellow at the University of New South Wales’ Climate Change Research Centre…
This story has so many Forensic flaws.
UNSW in Australia is pretty much in the heart of Sydney in Randwick (famous racetrack and a few Ks from the very famous Bondi Beach.)
So the Sydney weather records for Summer of 2016/2017 should be suitable.
Where she lives is not mentioned while the heatwave of LAST summer is cited. In the ABC report.
Ok. The Local alarmist organisation…The Bureau of Meteorology… BOM…lists records that has 2 days in December 2016 as being over 35C for consecutive days.
Top measure of 37.8.
January of 2017 had no consecutive days over 35C. Top of of 39.4
February of 2017 had 2 consecutive days over 35C. Top of 37.5.
So LAST summer there were no heatwaves in Sydney. So where does she live and commute from to have 48C in the shade.
The outback and the scorched Inland of Australia!
Sarah states the air con broke down. She is a Senior Research Fellow which is listed as equal to a Senior Lecturer Class C. Current lowest and highest wage at 1/1/17.
$121,500.
$139,400.
75% of the USA dollar
So Sarah and her husband (very old school that) could not afford a repair tradie or to go to Bunnings Hardwareand get the best quality evaporative coolers or even a couple of powerful fans!
As for the urge to have a large family of 4 or 5 kids it is interesting that Sarah had her first child at 32 or 33. When did she plan to have her second or her 5th child?
So that comment is a Big… As If…
Everything that is reported to have been stated by Sarah, and this report by the ABC needs to be treated like Klimate Science itself.
Absolute Garbage.
I’m not so sure that the studies heatwaves, rather the models of hearwaves – from her Linkdin profile:
She has “a passion for climate extremes, namely heatwaves” and has “devised a novel framework in which to measure heatwaves, as well as exploring their changes in the global and Australian observational record. … This has resulted in the development of scorcher.org.au” … …
She “analyzed the latest generation of climate models to understand changes in a suite of climate variables over the pacific region for the 21st century.” …
and she “researched the plausibility of projections of climate extremes from a regional climate model (compared to a global climate models).”
… so she compares various models and extrapolates from them. She would appear to be nothing more than a Post Science Modeller™
should read “heatwaves” in first sentence.
Well, she did win the “Tall Poppy” award.
Steel mills, cast iron companies, sugar harvest in the Caribbean –
___________________________________________
Heat waves, what heat waves?
https://www.google.at/search?client=ms-android-samsung&ei=N2ZTWfaSJoPTwQLXy4TwAg&q=Steel+mills&oq=Steel+mills&gs_l=mobile-gws-serp.
https://www.google.at/search?client=ms-android-samsung&biw=360&bih=288&ei=XGdTWYK9HIbXwQLnu7KIDQ&q=cast+iron+companies+&oq=cast+iron+companies+&gs_l=mobile-gws-serp.
https://www.google.at/search?client=ms-android-samsung&biw=360&bih=288&ei=dGdTWYXPLpKmwQLe0YnICg&q=carribean+sugar+harvest&oq=carribean+sugar+harvest&gs_l=mobile-gws-serp.
Right. So…she’s always wanted a big family (but wait! Aren’t climate alarmists always blaming baby making for the state of the planet?) and has now started one. Now she’s bleating on about how f#@£ed her newborn daughters future is?
Surely if she believed this tripe she 1. Wouldn’t be wanting to start a big family and 2. She wouldn’t be bringing a child into this warming hell hole?
The virtue signalling and blatant hypocrisy has made me vomit.
This is what she says about herself.
“I’m Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, a climate scientist interested in extreme events. I was awarded my PhD in 2010 at the Climate Change Research Centre, UNSW, Australia. My thesis focused on evaluating climate models by how well they provided projections of climate extremes over Australia. The novel evaluation metric I used is now commonly employed in climate model evaluation today. ”
Is there any need for further comment?
Absolute garbage “science”.
That’s just…, perfect!
Pity any child with parents like that
According to predictions made around the time of the first Earth Day, we should now be living in a hell hole and quickly headed back to the stone age. link Most of these predictions were made by actual experts, Dr. Paul Ehrlich being the prime example.
Anyone who gets a PhD should have to take a course in failed predictions and the dangers of hubris. Experts are in danger of overclaiming. They do not understand the limits of their expertise.
I’m an expert…
Everyone has a New Zealand cow, even experts. Especially experts.
(NZCoW – Non-Zero Chance of Wrongness)
Like a number of earlier commentators I was astonished by this story which appeared as “news” in the ABC online News feed today.
Others have commented on the extraordinary “data” of “hot days above 35 degrees C” in 2090 allegedly based on a 2014 projection from the CSIRO and BOM.
Computer GIGO.
Readers should understand that these scare stories appear on a regular basis as part of the Left ( liberal) agenda of the Australian Broadcasting Corporation .
The Great Barrier Reef has featured strongly in this narrative recently with ” up to half” (or 67% of the Reef north of Cairns) “dead”. Climate change is of course the principal culprit.
I have listed for my own interest some 16 social and political issues where my conservative views are either derided or ignored by the ABC.
Included among these of course is climate change aka global warming.
Not only is the ABC a conservative free zone but conservative views are never advanced and regarded as ” unacceptable” to hold or argue.
” Climate scientists reveal their fears for the future” is a perfect example of the default position of the ABC on climate change alarmism.
RobbertBobbert sums up the farce perfectly.
” always wanted a big family ”
Well that’s nice. If you believe the CAGW mythology then I’m afraid having first world children is just about the most self indulgent thing you can do.They consume at least 5 times as much fossil fuels as third world babies.
I monitor some climate p.o.r.n accounts on Twitter, and they are encouraging this emotive approach because they realize their science isn’t convincing the public. Expect to see more of it.