From the UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA – SAN DIEGO and the “correlation is not causation unless we take a survey and plug the results into a model and ignore UHI” department comes this “anything goes” paper that has the magic words for making headlines, but very little if any real science in it.
Losing sleep over climate change
Climate change may keep you awake — and not just metaphorically. Nights that are warmer than normal can harm human sleep, researchers show in a new paper, with the poor and elderly most affected. According to their findings, if climate change is not addressed, temperatures in 2050 could cost people in the United States millions of additional nights of insufficient sleep per year. By 2099, the figure could rise by several hundred million more nights of lost sleep annually.
The study was led by Nick Obradovich, who conducted much of the research as a doctoral student in political science at the University of California San Diego. He was inspired to investigate the question by the heat wave that hit San Diego in October of 2015. Obradovich was having trouble sleeping. He tossed and he turned, the window AC in his North Park home providing little relief from the record-breaking temperatures. At school, he noticed that fellow students were also looking grumpy and bedraggled, and it got him thinking: Had anyone looked at what climate change might do to sleep?
Published by Science Advances, the research represents the largest real-world study to date to find a relationship between reports of insufficient sleep and unusually warm nighttime temperatures. It is the first to apply the discovered relationship to projected climate change.
“Sleep has been well-established by other researchers as a critical component of human health. Too little sleep can make a person more susceptible to disease and chronic illness, and it can harm psychological well-being and cognitive functioning,” Obradovich said. “What our study shows is not only that ambient temperature can play a role in disrupting sleep but also that climate change might make the situation worse by driving up rates of sleep loss.”
Obradovich is now a postdoctoral fellow at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government and a research scientist at the MIT Media Lab. He is also a fellow of the Center for Marine Biodiversity and Conservation at UC San Diego’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography. Obradovich worked on the study with Robyn Migliorini, a student in the San Diego State University/UC San Diego Joint Doctoral Program in Clinical Psychology, and sleep researcher Sara Mednick of UC Riverside. Obradovich’s dissertation advisor, social scientist James Fowler of UC San Diego, is also a co-author.
The study starts with data from 765,000 U.S. residents between 2002 and 2011 who responded to a public health survey, the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The study then links data on self-reported nights of insufficient sleep to daily temperature data from the National Centers for Environmental Information. Finally, it combines the effects of unusually warm temperatures on sleep with climate model projections.
The main finding is that anomalous increases in nighttime temperature by 1 degree Celsius translate to three nights of insufficient sleep per 100 individuals per month. To put that in perspective: If we had a single month of nightly temperatures averaging 1 degree Celsius higher than normal, that is equivalent to 9 million more nights of insufficient sleep in a month across the population of the United States today, or 110 million extra nights of insufficient sleep annually.
The negative effect of warmer nights is most acute in summer, the research shows. It is almost three times as high in summer as during any other season.
The effect is also not spread evenly across all demographic groups. Those whose income is below $50,000 and those who are aged 65 and older are affected most severely. For older people, the effect is twice that of younger adults. And for the lower-income group, it is three times worse than for people who are better off financially.
Using climate projections for 2050 and 2099 by NASA Earth Exchange, the study paints a bleak picture of the future if the relationship between warmer nights and disrupted sleep persists. Warmer temperatures could cause six additional nights of insufficient sleep per 100 individuals by 2050 and approximately 14 extra nights per 100 by 2099.
“The U.S. is relatively temperate and, in global terms, quite prosperous,” Obradovich said. “We don’t have sleep data from around the world, but assuming the pattern is similar, one can imagine that in places that are warmer or poorer or both, what we’d find could be even worse.”
###
The research was supported in part by the National Science Foundation, grants no. DGE0707423 and TG-SES130013 to Obradovich, DGE1247398 to Migliorini, and BCS1439210 to Mednick. Mednick is also funded by the National Institute on Aging (R01AG046646) and the Department of Defense (Office of Naval Research Young Investigator Award).
In the press release, they give this DOI link, which seems to be DOA: http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1601555
But I dug out the article and here is the link: http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/5/e1601555.full
The SI is here: http://advances.sciencemag.org/highwire/filestream/195722/field_highwire_adjunct_files/0/1601555_SM.pdf
Abstract
Human sleep is highly regulated by temperature. Might climate change—through increases in nighttime heat—disrupt sleep in the future? We conduct the inaugural investigation of the relationship between climatic anomalies, reports of insufficient sleep, and projected climate change. Using data from 765,000 U.S. survey respondents from 2002 to 2011, coupled with nighttime temperature data, we show that increases in nighttime temperatures amplify self-reported nights of insufficient sleep. We observe the largest effects during the summer and among both lower-income and elderly respondents. We combine our historical estimates with climate model projections and detail the potential sleep impacts of future climatic changes. Our study represents the largest ever investigation of the relationship between sleep and ambient temperature and provides the first evidence that climate change may disrupt human sleep.
There isn’t a single mention of UHI or Urban Heat Island in the paper, but they do say this in a roundabout way in the SI for the paper: http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/advances/suppl/2017/05/22/3.5.e1601555.DC1/1601555_SM.pdf
Some might desire that we control for common demographic covariates. Unfortunately, as these demographic characteristics may also be impacted by the climatic variables within a locality (for example, if a particular demographic sorts into living in less extreme environments), including these variables has the potential to bias our coefficient of interest on nighttime temperature anomalies (making the variables ‘bad controls’). As a result we exclude them from our specification in Equation 1 in the main text.
They reference “climatic variables within a locality”, i.e. “microclimates” or UHI if one considers that. The IPCC stated in AR3 that
“it is well-known that compared to non-urban areas urban heat islands raise night-time temperatures more than daytime temperatures”
In the abstract of this study, Obradovich posits:
Might climate change—through increases in nighttime heat—disrupt sleep in the future?
It’s as if this kid never heard of UHI as a factor for increasing nighttime temperature. Mind-boggling.
I wonder how many of the respondents were from major cities, like Las Vegas, NV? There, the city has been booming, and if you consider the usual “climate change” metric, i.e. average temperature, yes it looks like it’s gotten warmer there since about 1973-75, before that, the trend is mostly insignificant.
But if you look at the Maximum and minimum temperatures separately, a clear UHI signal emerges that correlates with the building boom. Maximum temperatures are actually lower than in 1937.
While minimum temperatures are upwards
Increasing minimum temperatures are a sure sign of UHI, the city government itself even acknowledges it¹. ((see references). UHI increases nighttime temperatures due to there being more concrete, asphalt, and other impermeable surfaces storing daytime heat and releasing it at night -this is not “climate change” in the sense they use it, yet they don’t seem to even be aware of it as a possible confounding factor. Did the author, Obradovich, control for city dwellers vs. country dwellers? It doesn’t look like it.
The graph they cite “The effect on sleep of warmer than usual nights is most acute during the summer and among lower-income respondents and the elderly.” also isn’t about climate change. It’s about affordability for air-conditioning – not only for purchase, but for powering it. Low income and fixed income people (elderly) often can’t afford to purchase and/or run an air-conditioner. But instead of factoring in that, they immediately jump to climate change” as the culprit. Interestingly, in Table S4 of the SI for the paper, they show that low-income people tend to have about 4 times the rate of sleep loss as the financially well of. This could be due to lack of air-conditioning, or simply worrying how you are going to pay your bills and keep your kids fed – the things that really keep people up at night.
In a story in Psychology Today, they list the most common reasons for less sleep:
Increased sleep deprivation, or sleep deficit, has sometimes been described as a symptom of the recent decrease in leisure time in American society (see, for example, Juliet Schor’s bestseller The Overworked American). Working hours increased during the second-half of the 20th century, along with sharp growth in American productivity and prosperity. A doubling of productivity could have translated into both higher incomes and decreased working hours, yet today employees rarely have a choice between getting paid in time or money. Instead, Americans, relative to the past, work more, earn more, and spend more. This focus on work and consumption over leisure time has brought about an increased “time squeeze.” While this is especially true for the average American woman, the time squeeze cuts across gender, social class, and marital status.
Moreover, the recent growth of digital media and smartphones has dramatically raised productivity expectations and blurred the line between work and personal life. This decrease in free time and increased pace of life and stress has brought with it reduced sleep, with real consequences for physical and mental health, performance at work, and quality of life. For example, in the 1960s, the average amount of time Americans spent sleeping was between 7 and 8.5 hours a night, while today 50% of the population averages under 7 hours, and, according to a 2008 survey, 1 out of 3 Americans say they get a good night’s sleep only a few nights a month or less.
But Obradovich doesn’t seem to look at any of those factors, such as having a cell phone waking you up at night, or the general trend for less leisure time and more work. No, Obradovich jumps right on the correlation with temperature, thinking that is the only cause, seemingly excluding other more confounding factors. Then, they take that data from the survey and plug it into a model of their own design, and bam – instant conclusion – we’ll all get less sleep due to “climate change”.
Finally, Obradovich commits the cardinal sin of climate alarmists everywhere conflation of weather and climate in his thinking:
The study was led by Nick Obradovich, who conducted much of the research as a doctoral student in political science at the University of California San Diego. He was inspired to investigate the question by the heat wave that hit San Diego in October of 2015. Obradovich was having trouble sleeping. He tossed and he turned, the window AC in his North Park home providing little relief from the record-breaking temperatures. At school, he noticed that fellow students were also looking grumpy and bedraggled, and it got him thinking: Had anyone looked at what climate change might do to sleep?
Kid, one HEAT WAVE does not equate to “climate change” it’s weather, and weather is NOT climate.
In my opinion, this study by Obradovich is garbage, and was a conclusion looking for a paper to support it. How this sort of junk gets past peer review I have no idea.
References:
(1) Summary Report, Urban Heat Island Effect, City of Las Vegas, Office of Sustainability, April 2010
From: http://www.lasvegasnevada.gov/files/UHI_Report_2010-2.pdf
(2) Source for data: NOAA/NWS Las Vegas, from
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/vef/climate/LasVegasClimateBook/index.php
(3) Losing Sleep in the 21st Century
In a rapidly evolving American society, people are sleeping less and less. May 07, 2013
https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/limitless/201305/losing-sleep-in-the-21st-century
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Maybe they could do a study to see how much sleep people will lose because they can’t afford their energy bills due to increased “green power” costs. That would be interesting to see.
I am lucky enough to live in the sub tropics. For a few glorious months every year I have the privilege of sleeping bare naked (under a mosquito net) on Egyptian cotton sheets…because the air temperature is so close to comfort conditions that I don’t need any clothes or covers! Perfection.
Now the night time temperatures (it’s winter) are plunging as low as 15˚C and I’m back in my jammies with TWO doonas!
I wanna wake up in a city that doesn’t sleep.
https://youtu.be/i-ZUXQuFcnw
Most older people can’t sleep at night because they sleep a lot during the day. If you’re tired you will fall asleep whatever the situation even behind the steering wheel of a moving car.
The other problem is the hour you have to get out of bed to go to work.
and why the ‘concern’ about folks losing sleep?
I’m reminded that the powers-that-be inside Europe were concerned about the number of ‘premature deaths’ in Europe. Fine & good you say, they’re concerned over our well being.
Not really. The actual concern was that folks who die, before they officially retire at age 65 (say) cease to pay tax. Thus the grand edifice of Europe was threatened by lack of tax revenue.
And so it is here? Grown ups amongst us know that you can catch up sleep BUT – if you have to work flat-out 100% all of the time all the time, primarily to pay tax (mandatory take in UK is now near 70% of gross income) even 1 night’s poor sleep will affect you – and how many around you?
Is this why British Airways, the NHS and Oroville (nearly) crashed?
People are not machines yet are increasingly regarded as money making contraptions. Thus the Erosion of Civilisation continues.
Also, our headline says ‘garbage’
Clear headed, strong and self-confident people would ignore it, They’d pat the kid on the head, say “That’s very lovely. Maybe go help your sister make a daisy chain in the garden now”
People in places like Los Angeles will loose much sleep over the next twenty years, the propaganda will cause so much worry about the climate that a warm night will freak them out. The cost of their electricity will be such that they can no longer afford AC. It should all come good after that as it will become obvious that the world is cooling.
History gives us the temperatures and climate from the past, it is a roller coaster of ups and downs,cycles within cycles. These clowns that declare the sky is falling, calling themselves climate scientists need a wake up call. Perhaps your new president can give it to them by stirring the funding pot and giving funding to worthy people. Jumping out of the Paris stuff will make many sleep better.
Is there any doubt that since the invention of the internet Americans sleep less than they did before? The internet is the real sleep loss evil that plagues America!!!!!!
God! How many nights have i stayed up reading WUWT till the wee hours of the morning!!!!
Eugene WR Gallun
PS — where I am it is now 1:20 am.
All of the happy little birdies chirping and singing their little hearts out at false dawn (4am, here in the great northwet) caused me to awaken and rise to join their joy at day break. Strong coffee on the deck, with the birds singing, is an excellent start!
Wait…. That can’t be right! I lost sleep because of global warming??!! I’m a victim……right?
Victim?
Hardly- more like guiltily awake and suffering from your own climate- changing transgressions. Especially if you are a “cis gendered white US male”, then it’s extra- strength all your fault.
Yes, I can misspell my own name, (while exhibiting some sort of Freudian guilt and not enough coffee.)
How bigoted and misogynistic of you! There are plenty of women and “people” of color working in the criminal investigative sciences, not just old, fat white guys. Although, they do tend to be in-charge most of the time. Hmmmm. Perhaps you are onto something.
Anyone who lives within 2km of a big wind farm can tell you exactly how global warming causes sleep loss.
WHUMP-shudder whooshWUMP-shudder….
Just repeat the following words
This is one of the most ignorant climate related ‘studies’ ever! Until a complete assessment with factors like 4g, 5g, EMF’s, Geoengineering, HAARP, and the multitudes of health related and un reported programs that would effect the climate, studies like this are an insult to the scientific communities at large and a grave reflection of where our world science leaders are being directed. Or worse, coerced into. This was truely garbage.
Just so the record is straight…there have been a variety of ENGINEERS and ENGINEERING Professors who have “gone over to the dark side”, and sold their souls to the GOREBULL warming MONEY. A particular example? Frank Kreith, U of Colorado…author of a classic Heat Transfer, textbook…sold out about 20 years ago. I almost wonder if it was also a sign of a “declining mental acuity” (judging by some other things
I read coming from Mr. Kreith.)
I wonder if they thought to ask respondents if they slept with a window open 😀
Where can one find graphs of maximum and minimum temps by city as shown in this article?
Probably not exactly what you are looking for but they are pretty neat sites.
First link: gives daily max and mins for 15 warmest and coldest places worldwide. For today 19:00 UTC the range is 208 F.
http://www.eldoradocountyweather.com/climate/world-extremes2/world-temp-rainfall-extremes.php
Second link: You can search for cities worldwide. Use United States for US cities in country search box (USA doesn’t work)
http://www.ogimet.com/indicativos.phtml.en
CB
Perhaps this guy isn’t aware of the issue, otherwise he’d buy property in Alaska instead
http://shepherdspiehole.typepad.com/.a/6a0167621b7ded970b017ee9683341970d-pi
Warn us next time please.
This one will cause sleep loss to the watermelons:
Trump set to trash Paris
https://www.iceagenow.info/refreshing-president-common-sense/
Time to get a new thermostat for my air conditioning unit. Mine doesn’t measure in 100ths of a degree.
Hmmm. I sleep wearing a light coat, even when it’s hot at night. Does this mean, I’ll be able to forgo the coat and just wear my T-shirt?
Yes, especially when the paid protesters bang the drums and blow their horns all night.
The cost of living is very high in San Diego and sacrifices have to be made for promotions and raises in the great paper mill of publishing and accreditation.
I could have told ’em the same for nothing – I’ve noticed on global warming days when the night time temperature is high, it’s harder to sleep. Compared to global not-so-warming days, when it’s cooler and easier to sleep.
I wonder if whoever funded this pos feels they have got value for money. If it was me, I’d sue for the funds back.
I have good quality of sleep until I start to worry about policy over reach germinating in California for national rollout when the next over reach junta controls the WH.
Where to start with the methodological failures of this “study”…
First, far more sleep is lost to the inventions of electric light and television. The influence (often adverse) of artificial light on the human sleep cycle is well-documented though still poorly understood. I was particularly intrigued by Ekirch’s research on the concept of “first and second sleep” – a phenomenon documented all the way back through the Canterbury Tales. When Ekirch isolated a group of modern people from all artificial light, he found that they naturally returned to that pattern after about 4 weeks. They also got a lot more sleep – far more than the marginal impact found in this study.
Second, climate change is large-scale phenomenon. That is, it posits long-term changes, not short-term disruptions to temperature. Heat waves are a short-term impact. Anyone can be disturbed by an unusual short-term event. Animals (including humans and within limits) acclimatize to longer-term changes. In other words, a heat wave of a day or two will cause a few restless nights but at the end of an unusually warm month, I’m sleeping just fine.
But it is theoretically possible that nighttime temperatures are something that humans have a particularly hard time acclimatizing to. While the Urban Heat Island effect is a good counter-example, a better comparitor to test the climate change/sleep hypothesis would be simple latitude. We know that northern regions tend to be cooler than southern regions. And even though inhabitants move all over the country, they acclimatize to those conditions within a period of weeks. For this hypothesis to be true, there would have to be a failure to acclimatize. And that failure relative to nightime temperatures should be very easy to detect. All else held equal, do people in the South get less sleep (or less good sleep) than people in the North? Other than Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD, which has to do with the amount of daylight received during the night by those in the far north and nothing to do with temperature), I am aware of exactly zero studies showing any evidence that those living in the North sleep any better or worse than those in the South.
The age and income disparities are completely explained by the correlation between those factors and economic success. The poor and the elderly are less able to afford air conditioning and suffer during transient weather conditions like heat waves. The poor and the elderly, on the other hand, show no better survival or sleep patterns in northern vs southern cities. The fact that the poor and the elderly are at increased risk during weather extremes is completely uncontroversial – and completely irrelevant to the alleged conclusions of the study.
Obradovich should stick to political science. He’s apparently not very good at real science.
Typo: “amount of daylight received during the night” should have been “amount of daylight received during the winter months”.
Spoken like true industry shills.
I don’t understand the objections to this study – comments about UHI, cell phones, and climate change not being weather are all irrelevant to the main point. Humans sleep more poorly during warm weather, with warmer being roughly 68F, or 20C. Here is a summary of a study that concludes exactly that, a study not related to AGW concerns: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-best-temperature-for-a-good-nights-sleep-1456166563
Are there some folks for which this is not the case? Of course, just like there are folks who can smoke 2 packs of cigarettes and day and live to 100. But in general, humans sleep more poorly in warmer temperatures.
Warmer nighttime temperatures can be caused by several factors – UHI is one. Climate change is another. If you don’t believe that substantial warming is occurring due to AGW, fine – but don’t use that as a smokescreen for denying the conclusions of the basic premise about temperatures and sleep.