Claim: Arctic warming to increase Eurasian extreme cold events

From the INSTITUTE OF ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS, CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCIENCES and the “it’s called weather” department.

In recent years, Arctic warming and extreme events have attracted widespread attention of the world. Recently, Dr. YAO Yao and Prof. LUO Dehai from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics investigated the impact of Ural blocking (UB) on Eurasian extreme cold events in response to Arctic warming and obtained some interesting findings.

The intensity, persistence of UB-related Eurasian cold anomalies, according to LUO and his collaborators from USA and Australia, depend strongly on the strength and vertical shear (VS) of the mean background westerly wind (MWW) over mid-high latitude Eurasia related to Barents and Kara Seas (BKS) warming. The large BKS warming since 2000 weakens the meridional temperature gradient, MWW and VS, which increases quasi-stationarity and persistence of the UB (rather than its amplitude), and then leads to more widespread Eurasian cold events and further enhances the BKS warming. LUO and his coauthors also examined the physical mechanism behind the observational result using an UNMI model.

This is a sketch map of the possible physical process between Arctic warming and Eurasian cold events. CREDIT
Yao Yao

“The cooling over Central Asia occurs mainly during 2000-2015 and is related to the quasi-stationary and persistent UB,” said LUO, “the Northern Hemisphere winter warming hiatus observed in the recent decade (2000-2015) is likely associated with the quasi-stationary and persistent UB linked to the background Arctic warming or sea ice loss over the BKS. In particular, cold (warm) extremes are more persistent over Central Asia (BKS) for weak MWW or VS winters than for strong ones. ”

The study was recenlty published in Journal of Climatehttp://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0261.1

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101 thoughts on “Claim: Arctic warming to increase Eurasian extreme cold events

    • Stephen Wilde – Yes, you have indeed been telling us about it for years. I have no idea just how correct you are, or how much of a role that these things play in the overall scheme of things, but I have often thought that observations supported your theory. I find it interesting, and very telling, that natural factors like this one are (a) invoked only when there is an embarrassing fact to be explained away, (b) are described as being caused by the ruling paradigm (ie, man-made global warming), and (c) are totally ignored all the rest of the time.

  1. Yet more meaningless “me too” research. Is there a single meteorologist anywhere who isn’t aware of this?

    • Boy, is it ever easy to publish “climate research” now. Just state a well-known weather fact, then blame it on “global warming”.

      • Say the magic words and collect a grant. No wonder lazy academia defends the sc@m tooth and nail.

      • exactly…….” Arctic warming to increase Eurasian extreme cold events”

        So there have been less Rurasian extreme cold events because the Arctic was colder?

        ….I don’t think so

      • It’s a model.
        “LUO and his coauthors also examined the physical mechanism behind the observational result using an UNMI model.”
        It uses lots of abbrev.
        Some in UPPER C.

        Plainly penny-worthy to the paunched plutocrats of paying taxpayers pennies to – I could take alliteration too far, so – Stop!

        Let me say clowns, watermelons – and even, possibly, one or two criminals . . .

        Auto

  2. The “unprecedentedly” slow Arctic sea ice melt continues. For the past week, it has tracked 2014, starting from a lower winter maximum. Before that, it tracked 2015, before shunting onto the higher level of 2014, thanks to days of very little melting at all.

    http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

    Barring summer cyclones, it could end up in the 30-year normal range. The fact that Griff said a new, lower record was “sure” just makes that result even more likely.

    As he was told, the heat lost to space last winter from more open water than usual made the Arctic and adjacent seas colder than normal, hence slower melting.

    • There was a bet with Griff a few months back on a post regarding 2017 being the lowest on record. Just cannot remember the person making the bet and wining/loosing terms. Think it had something with being banned here for a period of time. We’ll have to wait until September to find out.

      • IIRC that bet didn’t come off, but one about ice at the North Pole did, but its terms weren’t adequately defined, so Griff might be able to weasel out of it.

    • Plus the entire northern hemisphere is looking very cool recently (literally) above 50 degrees latitude globally, which is maybe the result of the lost heat radiation to space. I doubt that there will be any quick change from this new reality, on top of what seems many weeks/months of a spotless Sun going into the low activity of the solar cycle. As they say elsewhere, ‘the trend is your friend’ probably applies here. Time will tell, but I think the Pause is still with us. It would be nice to see a slight cooling trend in the temp data over the next 3-4 years, just to shut the MSM and junk scientists up from claiming we are melting down. I am tired of all the CAGW alarmist hysteria.

      • To keep the sc@m going, the ho@xers will blame the global cooling on global warming, and say they’re both worse than we thought and unprecedented.

        And the media will play along.

      • And the global climate used to be so nice, back when I was a kid. Now the global climate is very bad.

      • The yearly transition from winter to summer here in Texas has been surprisingly comfortable (mild) this year. Didn’t use any A/C the month of April, and so far only 2 afternoons this month. Been enjoying this little bit of “Climate Change”

      • jvcstone
        I have not yet turned the central heating off – mid May, just South of London. Say 51 North.
        Haven’t used it a lot – but still comes on some mornings, even set to 16 C – about 61 F

        Auto

    • The 30-year median Arctic sea ice melt, according to NSIDC, for March 1 to May 15 is 2.228 million sq km. This year it has been just 1.605 sq km.

      The lower than usual winter maximum obviously had an impact on the March melt, but the thaw has continued more slowly in April and May.

      • The more ice there is, the faster it melts. This not what was told us. There was supposed to be a tipping point, the less ice there is, the faster it melts (because albedo etc).

        OK, there is much less ice than 40 years ago. So they do have a point. It is just I fail to see the link to CO2 established. Winds and clouds drive the ice.

      • Hugs,
        I am so, so sorry: the ‘science is settled’, so I guess you and I need to wash our mouths out [1 mouth each, obviously] with Kool-Aid.
        Lots of it.

        Auto – no more a “true Believer” that you are, Hugs.
        Still struggling to understand the Minoan Warm Age – without SUVs and 21,000 TEU container ships.
        But – ‘science is settled’.

    • Day 135

      MASIE Arctic sea ice extent is above that of each of the following years:

      2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2014, 2015, 2016 (could add 2012 tomorrow)

      Slowest melting May in whole MASIE data.

      NSIDC 2017 extent is above 2004, 2006, 2015, 2016 (very close to a couple of other years)

      Slowest “melt from maximum” for last 11 days.

    • “…the heat lost to space last winter from more open water than usual made the Arctic and adjacent seas colder than normal, hence slower melting.” I like that piece of real physical science.

  3. There is only so much energy available, so when one region warms, another must cool and the average remains the same. Another way to describe this is as natural variability.

    • There is an interesting idea from the old oceanographers called a ‘dynamic equilibrium.’ (pp. 160-163, in Sverdrup, H. U., M. W. Johnson and R. H. Fleming. 1942. The Oceans, their Physics, Chemistry, and General Biology. Prentice – Hall, New York.). While not the GAIA exaggeration, it suggests, even from the physical through the biological systems, the existence of compensatory operations. It would seem more logical to work from that basal sort of thing to understand the variations.

      • Yes, the compensatory operation that drives the climate system is Conservation of Energy and that in order to understand the variability, you must first understand the averages.

        The idea of a dynamic equilibrium is just a time varying steady state. For example, the winter state is different from the summer state, but the yearly average is relatively invariant. Variability is not limited to seasonal variations and there other influences with fixed or chaotic periods of from years to millennia.

        The current 240 W/m^2 of post albedo power from the Sun is ‘amplified’ by a factor of 1.6 resulting in 390 W/m^2 of surface emissions corresponding to a temperature of about 288K. To achieve an average temperature 10C lower, the input needs to drop to about 212 W/m^2 which if solar output is constant requires the albedo to increase by 25% from about 0.3 to about 0.38 which is certainly within the realm of possibility when ice is covering much of the planet during ice ages. The CO2 and water vapor reduction that occurs when temperature drop reduces the required increase in albedo by a small amount.

  4. ‘Climate Change’ is just the greatest invention.
    It is immortal.
    Warm causes cold.
    Drought causes rain.
    Is cold causing warm yet?
    CO2 can make it so.
    A political perpetual motion machine.

  5. The planet is cooling as predicted by many scientists and nothing will stop it. But 2030 there will be a full blown Maunder Minimum bringing unimaginable upheaval. We already have crop failures and it’s just begun. If you research the last MM there is not a lot of information but what there is is all bad.

  6. Perhaps this is the right comments thread to mention that many graphs on sea ice page are woefully out of date. There are too many graphs there anyway, why not just trash those that show garbage?

  7. The current map of the jet stream does not show the claimed UB. Also, the “H” and “L” appear to be reversed in the article. Isn’t cold air heavier than warm air? Also, it would be remarkable to observe a counterclockwise rotation of any high pressure system in the northern hemisphere.

    • These are height centers not pressure centers per se. The L in the trof pertains to the height of the pressure surface. Probably the 500mb or 300mb surface, or approx18,000ft and 26,000ft respectively. So the 500mb pressure is at lower altitude than the H, yet the pressure is the same. So the lower height sfc means more dense air in essence.

  8. Extreme cold in one of the least populated areas in the world? Sounds like a win for humanity. Let’s go arctic warming! However, I strongly doubt this will actually happen. Seems like a classic example of correlation causation.

    Predict something a few months out, and then for next year…then I might believe you can predict something further out. Of course we know they never make falsifiable predictions, just more mental masturbation and fluff pieces for grant money and political action.

    • WR
      Don’t mince words next time.
      You are right – but in a minor key.

      These criminals and Marxists are out to kill 90% of people alive – or more – and lead the world into a Stalinist dystopia, where elimination is the price of independent thinking.

      Auto,
      Very confused as to the ‘reasons’ Theresa May gives for screwing market pricing for energy in the UK.
      ‘Cap it’ is economically Palaeolithic nonsense.

      And don’t get me *$*@£*!)* started on Jeremy ‘Money-trees are found on every street corner, and we need to plant millions more!’ Corbyn . . . .

      Manor House to gutter in three generations?
      Piers Corbyn – if a relative, such as a brother, of yours – do please consider your position. Thanks.

  9. Re: “the Northern Hemisphere winter warming hiatus observed in the recent decade (2000-2015).”

    A decade is 10 years. 15 years are a decade and a half… or a decade and a lustrum.

    • A blocking high pressure system in the vicinity of the Ural Mountains, the range dividing Europe from Asia, ie Siberia.

  10. We hat some AGW propaganda lately with researchers checking the depth of snow at the Arctic.
    The measured temperature was -41 degrees Celsius. Now I ask you…what should the temperature at the Artic be to shut up those morons.

  11. From the “It’s Called Weather!” perspective, it’s been a bloody cold and wet winter and spring here in the Great NorthWet, a bit south of Seattle WA! We are running 10F – 15F below the normal ‘daily high’ temps, with a seemingly endless sequence of cold rain showers passing through the last several months. Our daily highs should be in the low to mid 70s. It’s 48F now. For the 4th day in a row, I’ve had short spates of pea sized hail mixed in with the rain squalls. The long range forecast says we may get temps in the 70s by next weekend.

    C’mon Global Puget Sound Warming!!!

    • Spring had a nice start and everything blossomed. But than the frost returned. Just misserable cold weather for weeks. Eastern was colder than Christmas. Just weather without a trace of Global Warming. There could’t be a bigger contrast between the real world weather experience and the relentless AGW propaganda. People are getting sick of it.

    • No sooner did I read your WX report than the hailstorm hit here, east of the Cascades, along with lightning which surged my computer off.

      Hailstones cover the ground. More like March WX than mid-May.

      The grass has been too wet to mow, but the few days of sunshine have caused it to go nuts.

    • This is likely due to the effects that happen after a large El Nino, and when the solar minimum is close at hand. For example, the summer of 1965 after the Great Flood winter of 1964/65 I took a Greyhound bus to Seattle to spend the summer with my cousins. It was a 38 hour ride from San Francisco to Seattle due to the heavy damage from the Great Flood which had impacted the West Coast from the SF/Bay Area all the way to the Canadian border.

      During that summer in Seattle there were 10 days of sunshine and it rained at least 1/3rd of the time. Imo, this is what you can expect for this entire summer in your area.

      • I like the upper trof to remain over the northwest, usually means ridging over upper Midwest, and i like riding as it usually portends warm weather. 😎 But it looks troffy here for while now after our spate of summer temps. Been a good spring overall….greened up about 1-2wks ahead of average.

      • Here in the Northern Great Plains of Western Canada it feels like the cool years of the 1970’s. Zero to show for 50 years of “Global Warming”. I would be happy to concede something to the AGW theory if there was a particle of evidence that it was correct. Natural variability seems much more likely to me for what is to date a mild and beneficial warming that will, unfortunately most likely end soon. The return of cooler weather will mean more crops lost to early and late frost, more expensive food, higher energy consumption-which, thanks to idiotic “Green Energy”will be less affordable and less reliable.
        When we throw in high debt levels and an aging population, the future doesn’t really look so bright.

    • In the Vancouver paper they increase the daily lows because the highs aren’t getting anywhere near average for this time of year. The paper today predicts a low of 8C. The temp this morning was 4C. I’m only a 10 minute drive from where they take the readings.

      • They are in town – a ‘ten minute drive’ is three miles, or more, out into the sticks.

        UHI.
        What a surprise.

        Auto

  12. The tallest peak in the Urals is 1,895 meters high. The jet stream is located over 5 times that altitude. The “Ural Blocking” of the jet stream appears to be just another teleological construct.

    • IMO the name doesn’t mean that the Urals are responsible for the high, but just that that region is where it is located.

      “Blocking” refers to the high pressure system itself, not to being caused by the mountains blocking air.

      • Yes, correct. It is simply a geographical reference to a common upper air blocking pattern.

    • Fails from first principles? Hang on. The first principle of alarmism is that global warming causes warmth and cold, rain and drought, more weather events and fewer weather events. You name it, global warming is the cause.

      Oh, you meant first principles of physics.

  13. I have a £100 bet on my professional blogosphere that ice cover in September will be more Wadhams than 2016. No Takers so far.

  14. So how come all the grapes just froze in France & UK well to the west of this cold spot? I think it’s blocking highs in Russia’s north, and blocking eyes in Europe.

  15. Arctic warming? What Arctic warming? The Arctic temperature is below average right now.

    Due to a WordPress “feature” you might have to click on the figure if you don’t see the red line below the green line, to get the latest image.

    • Good graph. Thanks. Although I wonder about the reanalysis.

      Barrow, AK is a little above average right now.

      As I’ve been noting, Arctic sea ice is melting more slowly than usual this year, thanks to colder than normal SSTs in the region, perhaps due to more heat escaping from slightly less ice cover this winter.

      • Day 135

        MASIE Arctic sea ice extent is above that of each of the following years:

        2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2014, 2015, 2016 (could add 2012 tomorrow)

        Slowest melting May in whole MASIE data.

        NSIDC 2017 extent is above 2004, 2006, 2015, 2016 (very close to a couple of other years)

        Slowest “melt from maximum” for last 11 days.

      • I am not the one claiming that warming makes things colder. That would be the morons pushing their Human Caused Globall Warmining religion. A lie is a lie no matter how much it keeps being repeated. Lets us try a bit of truth. The climate changes, humans are not causing it and can not stop it. See how easy it is?

  16. General McArthur in the WW2 Pacific campaign said “hit ’em where they aint”.

    Now the warmista warlords are doing the same, “warm it where they aint”.

    It’s increasingly the pattern – never mind exceptional cold where billions of people live, the real story is all this warming where no-one is there, trust our few old decaying weather stations but don’t believe those evangelical satellites.

    OT but funny 😂 :

    http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-39939911/spectacular-scenes-after-lorry-and-wind-turbine-collision

  17. Ural blocking (UB) can only be trivial compared with Rocky Blocking (RB?). I mean, hills, with an average elevation of a kilometer; are not even in the same league with the American Cordillera.

    The Rockies anchored the jet stream during the last glaciation…

  18. The paper has it the wrong way round.

    It is the change in jet stream/blocking that has brought warm air up to the Arctic. It is not the “warm Arctic” that has changed the jet stream

    • Somewhat simplistically air is heated in the tropics and rises [low pressure] drawing in cooler, denser air from the north and south [ultimately the poles]. That’s not “weather driven mainly from the equator”..
      It’s actually ankle bone connected to the shin bone, shin bone connected to the knee bone etc

      • Tony, Greg,

        I doubt that there really is much warming of the ocean water by the sun beyond [40] degrees latitude
        The produced water vapor comes mainly from around equator.
        It is that which produces the wind / weather.
        I don’t know how anyone can think otherwise.

        Must say that my measurements show no warming in the SH. Go figure that one out for me.

      • henryp (replying to Tony and Greg

        Tony, Greg,

        I doubt that there really is much warming of the ocean water by the sun beyond [40] degrees latitude

        Actually, there is notable ocean warming by the sun up to 55 latitude (north or south). A convenient latitude if you remember that Cape Horn is right at 56 south latitude. The greatest absorption is between -45 South and 45 North, and there is important warming as far as 60 north or south many months of the year.
        But, past 65 north, the opposite occurs: Less sea ice, more heat loss (over the entire year.) Warming ONLY occurs up north during April, May, June, and July. The rest of the year? No solar heating at all, or the energy absorbed by sea ice ~ = energy absorbed by open ocean.

        Down south? Limited solar heating of the ocean occurs every month of the year, and significant solar heating 8 months of the year. But it is very small only in June-July as the ice pack approaches the edge of the Antarctic continent.

      • I have been in the arctic circle not so long ago for a holiday. September.
        At the beach I could not really discern heat coming from the sun [on my skin] and the water was ice cold. Could not keep my feet in the water. 8 degrees C, maybe?
        Cloudless day. + or – 15 degrees C of air.

        The warming not discernible by me in the SH is counted from 40 years ago, average of 27 weather stations.

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