From the “weather is not climate”
department and AGU
WASHINGTON, DC — More children could wind up in hospital emergency rooms suffering from allergy-induced asthma if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise and cause longer oak pollen seasons, according to a new study.
The new research finds that if greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase through the end of this century, the oak pollen season in some areas could extend by up to eight days. People with oak pollen allergies, particularly children, will have longer exposure to pollen that can induce allergic asthma. That could increase the associated hospital emergency room visits for allergic asthma by 10 percent in the Midwest, Southeast, and Northeast combined, the new study finds.
Allergic asthma associated with oak pollen sends more than 20,000 people to emergency rooms every year, and the increase in pollen could result in a 10 percent increase in hospital ER visits by 2090, according to the study’s authors.
These additional ER visits would add an estimated $10.4 million to the $346.2 million cost that would be expected under baseline conditions through 2090, according to the new study published in GeoHealth, a publication of the American Geophysical Union.
“We found that the severe climate change scenario had a substantial impact on public health,” said Susan Anenberg, an environmental scientist at Environmental Health Analytics, LLC, in Washington, D.C., and lead author of the new study.
The study is part of a growing area of research on the health impacts of climate change and the economic burden to individuals. Previous research has already shown that increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has caused ragweed, another strong allergen, to produce higher concentrations of pollen, according to the study’s authors.
The new study could help doctors anticipate changes in allergic asthma as the climate changes, said Samantha Ahdoot, a pediatrician in Alexandria, Virginia, and assistant professor of pediatrics at Virginia Commonwealth University School of Medicine, who was not involved in the study.
“I would hope that this research would help the public and policymakers to understand that changes that occur in the environment, whether it is plant life or climate, trickle down and ultimately affect the health of people,” she said.
In the new study, Anenberg and her colleagues calculated the number of emergency room visits for allergic asthma across the Southeast, Midwest, and Northeast today and in the future using observed relationships between oak pollen and asthma ER visits in Atlanta, Cincinnati, and New York City.
They found that there were 21,200 oak pollen-related allergic asthma ER visits in 2010. Of those visits, 70 percent were children under the age of 18, indicating that children may be more vulnerable to climate change-related health impacts, according to Anenberg.
The study’s authors used climate models and known relationships between temperature, precipitation, and oak pollen to estimate the oak pollen season length under both a moderate climate change scenario and a severe climate change scenario.
Combining the emergency room visit and climate model information, the study’s authors found that the most severe climate change scenario would increase ER visits in the three regions by 5 percent in 2050 and by 10 percent in 2090. Under a moderate climate change scenario, the number of visits would only increase by 4 percent, avoiding more than half of the emergency incidents in the severe scenario, the study found.
“The impact of oak pollen on human health in the United States is extensive and likely worsening over time with climate change,” Anenberg said. “Our results could be underestimating a much bigger problem, since environmental changes could also affect other pollen types and other health outcomes.”
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There COULD also be an increase in visits to clinics and dr.’s offices for such things as hives and heat rash — IF the temperature actually increases in June – July – August. But on the other hand, if the temperature increase happens in the Dec., Jan, Feb quarter, such things as snowmobiling may have some tough sledding on un-groomed tracts.
There are two Fargos that I think can be used as a moral to the story: 10 degrees warmer morning lows in Fargo, ND in January, well glory be and hallelujah, bring it on. 10 degrees warmer in Fargo, GA in the afternoons in July and August: Oh, Hell.
It’s far more likely that a change in the definition of allergy-caused asthma will cause an increase in the reporting of such ER visits.
How about rectifying the high concentration of filthy diesel engines now in urban environments everywhere first, all a direct result of numbskull green willy waggling in the recent past. Who needs experts when the outcome was blatantly obvious from day one, eh? Never listen to the religious machinations of myopic green zealots. Religion cloaked in science is deceit, impure and anything but simple and straightforward. Vorsprung dirt Technik in Europe, Truth was Engineering (forget the fallout) in the US. In the modern world truth is apparently some maniacal search engine owner’s flaky talk show take on basic morality and revenue generating advertising opportunity. Mass media manipulation rules OK, let’s all get off on that. At least until the opening bars of Foxtrot Oscar can be heard in the distance above the noise of all those inhalers. Suck it up.
Talk about reaching for climate change boggy man scenarios.
boggy man, do you mean this guy
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bog_body
Facts on the ground:
No one knows what actually causes asthma. The doctors have found many things that are associated with increased asthma, but those things only cause a portion of the asthma cases. For each association the rest of asthmatics are largely unaffected. Possible allergens include just about anything including proteins and many chemicals that modify proteins, causing some people to react to that particular chemical. Literally hundreds of chemicals can cause allergy in some people.
Allergy tests are only moderately successful in determining which allergens affect a patient. Whether skin prick tests or more modern immunoassays the tests only inidcate which allergens the immune system responds too, but the disease process in asthma and other allergic reactions includes many other factors, so an individual may react to oak pollen in a test but may be actually reacting in the spring to any of dozens of other flowering plants.
The only known way to improve actual relief of symptoms is the use of “allergy injections”, stimulating the immune system for a period of time. I can attest to the effectiveness. I got allergy shots, mainly for ragweed and tree pollens for over four years. At the end of the procedure my symptoms were much reduced and skin prick tests showed the same. But I still had lots of problems during pollen seasons. The use of lab produced antigens, as urdura mentions, could be more effective but biologicals, such as lab produced cell immunomodulators are called, are horribly expensive at tens of thousands of dollars a dose.
The bottom line is go back to natural child rearing, letting all kids from infants an pre-teens play outside and get dirty. It’s no guarantee there will be fewer allergy problems. Just watch out for nasty things such as elephantiasis, malaria, Zika, tapeworms, cestodes, pinworms, ascariasis, hookworms, ghiardia and on and on. Some, like pin worms, are thought to be beneficial in training the immune system, as long as they don’t get out of control.
Or perhaps greater exposure to pollen in infancy will reduce allergies, or greater time outdoors due to better weather will make kids healthier, or reduced cold in winter will reduce exposure to indoor allergens, and reduce cold induced asthma when outside, or any number of other totally unfounded conjectures, but let’s just stick to the conjectures that help people fear natural changes in climate.
1) There is no way for CO2 to cause asthma. CO2 is around 40,000 ppm in the lungs and there isn’t a human in history that is allergic to CO2. CO2 is necessary for the human body to survive.
2) Most allergies are due to natural causes, ie dust and pollen, not pollution.
Occam here … there are more allergy ridden and asthmatic people now than 100 years ago. Because … a lot more such people survive childhood than they did 100 years ago. 100 years ago, allergy shots were nearly unknown, acute and ongoing management of asthma bare existed and what they had was crude and dangerous and Epipen? Fugedaboudit at any price. This is true for so many other things.
Excerpted from above commentary:
Me thinks the touting of “silly science” is far worse than not touting any science at all.
One has to assume that the above cited “greenhouse gas emissions” is obviously in reference to atmospheric CO2 ppm quantities …… and their “iffy” claim that …… “an increase in atmospheric CO2 will cause an increase in the oak pollen season” …… is nothing more than “fear-mongering” in an attempt to garner more Grant monies and/or scare the bejesus out of the miseducated “gullibles”.
The literal fact is, atmospheric CO2 ppm quantities has nothing whatsoever to do with the “start”, the “length” or the “end” of the per se “pollen season” of the different deciduous tree species. Even the “cones” of the conifer tree species produce “pollen”, ….. the “male” cones, that is.
“Wind-pollinated flowers of broad-leaved trees are characterized by a lack of showy parts (flowers), no scent and a copious production of pollen, often with separate male and female flowers, or separate male and female trees.”
If it is an “early Spring” …. the deciduous trees will “flower” or “blossom” early and thus the pollen season begins early ….. and ends early.
If it is a “late Spring” …. the deciduous trees will “flower” or “blossom” late and thus the pollen season begins late ….. and ends late. To wit:
I was wondering the same thing. I suspect there is no actual data showing either more pollen produced or a longer period of production in warmer years.
I’ve had asthma ever since I was a little kid. I’m 57. When I was a kid I’d describe my asthma as moderately severe; frequent attacks, constant epinephrine inhaler companion, occasional scary runs to the ER. Now? Barely noticeable. The CO2 concentration in the atmosphere has increased steadily during the interim period. Ergo CO2 improves asthma, no?
Some very remarkable science here. They estimate the length of the oak-pollen season from a formula based on the January through March temperature and the September through August precipitation.
This means that it is possible to predict summer precipitation by observing the length of the spring oak pollen season. This implies that oak trees can see into the future. Sounds quite interesting.
I took a look at the paper. They merely cite a couple of references to support their contention that climate change could produce longer pollen seasons. I looked at the references. One appeared to be some kind of alarmist publication with no original experimental data, and the other one was based on- wait for it- a model. But hey, who am I to be a science denier?
Want to help kids have fewer allergy problems? Get them some pets, stop using all these “anti-bacterial” soaps and dirty up their home environment a bit, get them OUTSIDE and dirty at the earliest ages. Let’em roll around in the dirt with the dogs and chase the chickens and play hide&seek in the hay maw and pick AND eat stuff right out of the garden. Children are not petri dishes, you can’t keep them sterile and trying to screws up their immune systems.
Thus endeth the rant. Carry on.
Asthma sufferers suffered a big loss with the passage of international laws that banned HFCs. Twenty five years ago, my wife was able to purchase an asthma inhaler refill for $25. Good for 6-12 months. Those old inhalers used CFCs to push the albuterol into the patients lungs. If one suffered an asthma attack, a quick spray from the old inhalers brought instant relief, and in many cases saved the person’s life.
But, those days are long gone. The new environmentally friendly inhalers are absolutely worthless. The emergency inhalers do the job, but not cost 8-10 times as much as the old ones. In many cases, the person suffering from asthma attacks must be sent to an ER and receive expensive breathing treatment ($200 and up).
Most effective shutdown of the term “denier” is to refer to it is “climate change blasphemer.”
We all need to learn to live healthier lifestyles. Eat organic, reduce pollution, recycle just to name a few things to help to live a greener life.
Most important we should take climate change serious and do as much as possible to protect our planet. Allergies have dramatically increased since the last 20 years, the only way to change that is to live a sustainable lifestyle. Easier said than done, but it has to start somewhere.