From the UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII AT MANOA and the “Hawaiian children just won’t know what snow is” department…
Snow in Hawai’i: What does the future hold?
To evaluate the current situation, Zhang and his colleagues examined surface composition data retrieved from satellite imagery of Hawai’i Island from 2000 to 2015 to construct a daily index of snow cover. They used this data compilation to evaluate the quality of their regional atmospheric climate model, based on global climate projections that included several scenarios of anticipated climate change. Zhang then ran simulations representative of the end of the 21st century, assuming a moderate business-as-usual scenario for greenhouse gas emissions projections, to establish how long Hawai’i might enjoy its occasional glimpses of white-topped mountains.
“We recognized that Hawaiian snow has an aesthetic and recreational value, as well as a cultural significance, for residents and visitors,” explained Zhang. “So, we decided to examine just what the implications of future climate change would be for future snowfall in Hawai’i.” Unfortunately, the projections suggest that future average winter snowfall will be ten times less than present day amounts, virtually erasing all snow cover.
The findings were not a total surprise, with future projections showing that even with moderate climate warming, air temperatures over the higher altitudes increase even more than at sea level, and that, on average, fewer winter storm systems will impact the state. However, the group’s new method for establishing the current snow cover on these Hawaiian mountains provides another avenue for monitoring the progression of climate change in the region. Ultimately, this study also illustrates the benefits of the recent trend in model downscaling, highlighting the regional and local effects of global climate change.
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Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea had snow last Sunday. That’s pretty unusual.
‘Astonishing’ snow depth on North Face of Ben Nevis
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/24/surpise-glaciers-appearing-in-scotland/
I thought British children had forgotten what snow is; so how would they know ?
g
Hi George, the original article opened by talking about “the loss of significant snowfall in much of lowland Britain”, and that was the context in which Viner was quoted. (Ben Nevis certainly doesn’t count)
Most of the references to Viner’s quote fail to mention the following caveat from the same article:
“Heavy snow will return occasionally”, “We’re really going to get caught out. Snow will probably cause chaos in 20 years time”. So he certainly expected heavy snow falls into the 2020s.
He seems to have been accurate since this winter warnings of snow caused cancellations in London and Heathrow, here’s the reaction to what happened:
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2017/01/13/09/3C18C50300000578-0-image-a-4_1484300501803.jpg
Not so much snow this year though. It all evens out in the end. http://www.winterhighland.info/cams/nevisrange/coiredubh.jpeg
“Climate modelers: snow on Hawaiian peaks to disappear by end of century”
Snow to disappear 80 plus years from now? What a fearless projection by those alarmists.
I’ll give you a projection on anything you want for 50 years from now. (I doubt I will be alive in 5 so the prediction seems safe to me)
What would you like? How about ESPN fails as a network by 2067? Yes, that is the ticket!
ESPN doesn’t last half that long. They have Chapter 11 staring them in the face within the next five years. They have to void their excessive contracts with sports leagues before they exhaust their shrinking revenue stream.
“Zhang then ran simulations representative of the end of the 21st century,”
______________________________________
Wisely, Zhang didn’t run simulations representative of the beginning of the 20th century.
Anyway, what good for are simulations representative of the end of the 21st century
– today or
– at the end of the 21st century
You gotta love it: “Zhang then ran simulations representative of the end of the 21st century.” Based on which parameters? Classic GIGO.
v’
“Climate modelers: snow on Hawaiian peaks to disappear by end of century”
I’ll put a note in my diary to remind me to check in 2099.
(Or 3000, as the other lot have it.)
Ski Utah!
” . . . the [computer] projections suggest that future average winter snowfall will be ten times less than present day amounts, virtually erasing all snow cover.”
This is one of the few times I’ve approved of the use of the word “virtually.” That one little word made the sentence entirely accurate.
And based on modeling the Al Gore effect have allowed modelers of poetic justice to project that by the end of the century snow will be seen on the Hawaiian island peaks year round.
Are these the same stupor-geniuses who propclaimed it is “unprecedented” to have snow in the Hawaiian Islands in January?
“The findings were not a total surprise, with future projections showing that even with moderate climate warming, air temperatures over the higher altitudes increase even more than at sea level,”
So the physical laws governing lapse rates will no longer be relevant? This assumes that the air will be dryer? But if the air is warmer in the middle of the Pacific then are they using a dry lapse rate?
Crap. No taxpayer cash unless all modeling studies have that word in large print on every page
What? You mean there is still snow on top in spite of unprecedented global warming that the world ever seen?
No worries. Once Hawaii has eroded to that point Loihi will rise from the ocean high enough to be covered with snow. http://www.marinebio.net/marinescience/02ocean/hwgeo.htm
Good news. Mount Kilimanjaro weather today, -3 °C, snowing.
Wow, no one has really looked at this before, and my C02-crazy,-non-realistic-future computer model says it worse than we haven’t thought!
What—Me Worry?
Personally, I’m still waiting for Global Warming to get with it faster, because it’s taking too long with all these Abnormalities of Volcanic Activities and Solar Minimums and Massive Meteors in the last 2 Billion years of our 4,4 Billion years of existence interfering with it, causing Glacial Periods and Mass Extinctions. Bio-Mass begets Bio-Mass exponentially and Bio-Mass exponentially begets Carbon Based Lifeforms, that Begets Carbon Dioxide in the Environment to create more Bi-Mass. Flora feeds Fauna that eat flora and fauna, as fauna provide oxygen to the flora that fauna inhale to live and exhale more carbon dioxide than they inhaled to support flora. With the addition of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels, cement manufacturing, other industrial products and our deforestation and increases of farming and ranching increasing all flora and fauna, making the Earth more populated and increasingly Greener…Why the heck is there still Ice anywhere on Earth? Because of those 3 previously given Abnormalities.
Well, there go my retirement plans to become Hawaii’s first, “Soul Skier”.
Come on!! I don’t want to play golf!
I say Good Riddens to the snow. Warmer there would be a relief to the horridly cold and fierce winds at the summit.
I can show why this statement is wrong using actual observations that have been recorded at least since the 1970’s.
http://www.clim-past.net/7/975/2011/cp-7-975-2011.pdf
Using Mauna Loa temperature data between the 1970’s and 2000’s:-
1) Noon temperatures have been declining during the period.
2) Midnight temperatures have been increasing during the period.
“The rates of warming are highest in the spring and lowest in the fall and winter.”
“….there is an overall annual warming trend of temperatures dT /dt =0.021±0.011◦Cyr−1 at this observatory for the same period. This is very close to the Hawaii regional sea surface temperature (SST) trend d(SST)/dt =0.018 ±0.006◦Cyr−1 for the period 1977–2006 (Fig. 4), the average “preferred” value of the IPCC (2007) for the period 1980–2005 of dT/dt =0.018±0.005◦Cy−1 and our inferred CO2 trend analysis value of dT /dt =0.019[0.012 to 0.029]◦Cyr−1”
“Winter temperature trend −0.019±0.026 0.033±0.016”, Max-Min
Therefore the trends in temperatures and pattern during different seasons, suggest snow on the peaks will remain by the end of century. Noon temperatures are critical in keeping snow intact more than midnight temperatures, yet these have been cooling. The rate of warming overall detected was small at 0.2c per decade and this projected warming even if remained the same for the rest of the century at about 1.6c (1.1c – winter) Would not be enough to cause snow to disappear on the Hawaiian peaks.
Further to add.
“air temperatures over the higher altitudes increase even more than at sea level, and that, on average, fewer winter storm systems will impact the state”
While this maybe true, observations have shown very little difference between higher altitudes and sea level. Winter noon cooling and midnight warming show more likely weather conditions caused by increased cloud cover. Increased cloud cover would likely be more associated with more winter storm systems not less.
Why would warming of 1.1c in winter not cause snow to disappear on the peaks?
1) All this would do is increase the snow line up the mountain by 150m.
2) The max temperature has been cooling and the min temperature warming so a less negative value over night if mainly associated with 1.1c warming wouldn’t make any difference.
3) The snow line could actually increase down the mountain if the cooling noon temperatures, increasingly moves below or towards the freezing point of water. (or low enough dew point in retaining snow cover)