Alarmists Gone Wild: Saving the Arctic Sea Ice from Oblivion With… Windmills!

Guest post by David Middleton

From the “Truth is Stranger than Fiction” files…

Windmills

Leave it to a researcher who studies icy moons in the outer solar system to come up with an out-there scheme to restore vanishing sea ice in the Arctic.

Ice is a good insulator, says Steven Desch, a planetary scientist at Arizona State University in Tempe. That’s why moons such as Jupiter’s Europa and Saturn’s Enceladus, among others, may be able to maintain liquid oceans beneath their thick icy surfaces. On Earth, sea ice is much thinner, but the physics is the same. Ice grows on the bottom surface of floating floes. As the water freezes, it releases heat that must make its way up through the ice before escaping into the air. The thicker the ice, the more heat gets trapped, which slows down ice formation. That’s bad news for the Arctic, where ice helps keep the planet cool but global warming is causing ice to melt faster than it can be replaced.

The answer to making thicker ice more quickly? Suck up near-freezing water from under the ice and pump it directly onto the ice’s surface during the long polar winter. There, the water would freeze more quickly than underneath the ice, where it usually forms.

In theory, Desch says, the pumps used for this top-down approach to ice growth could be driven by technology no more sophisticated than the windmills that have long provided water to farms and ranches on the Great Plains.

Desch and colleagues envision putting such pumps on millions of buoys throughout the Arctic. During winter, each pump would be capable of building an additional layer of sea ice up to 1 meter thick over an area of about 100,000 square meters…

[…]

Now is the time to begin detailed designs and build prototypes, Desch says. The Arctic Ocean’s end-of-summer sea ice coverage has decreased, on average, more than 13 percent per decade since 1979. “There’ll be a time, 10 to 15 years from now, when Arctic sea ice will be accelerating to oblivion, and there’ll be political will to do something about climate change,” Desch says. “We need to have this figured out by the time people are ready to do something.”

051317_notebook_sea-ice_inline

Science News

Professor Desch and his colleagues estimate that each ice-making buoy would cost $50,000 (including shipping and handling).  They estimate that it would cost $500 billion to cover 10% of the Arctic Ocean with ice-making buoys…

Ice grows on the bottom surface of floating floes. As the water freezes, it releases heat that must make its way up through the ice before escaping into the air. The thicker the ice, the more heat gets trapped, which slows down ice formation. That’s bad news for the Arctic, where ice helps keep the planet cool but global warming is causing ice to melt faster than it can be replaced.

So… Thicker ice traps more heat (insulation), causing the ice to melt faster, preventing the ice from keeping the planet cool (high albedo).  Makes perfect sense.

“There’ll be a time, 10 to 15 years from now, when Arctic sea ice will be accelerating to oblivion, and there’ll be political will to do something about climate change.  We need to have this figured out by the time people are ready to do something.”

“Accelerating to oblivion”?  Oblivion?

Oblivion

Since we know that the current Arctic sea ice extent is much larger than that of most of the Holocene, “oblivion” is probably not the place to which Arctic sea ice is heading.  If anything, it is returning to normal.  So, I don’t think these ice-making buoys would be the best place to “invest” $500 billion.

The Arctic was probably ice-free during summer for most of the Holocene up until about 1,000 years ago.  McKay et al., 2008 demonstrated that the modern Arctic sea ice cover is anomalously high and the Arctic summer sea surface temperature is anomalously low relative to the rest of the Holocene.

chukchi

Figure 1. “Modern sea-ice cover in the study area, expressed here as the number of months/year with >50% coverage, averages 10.6 ±1.2 months/year… Present day SST and SSS in August are 1.1 ± 2.4 8C and 28.5 ±1.3, respectively… In the Holocene record of core HLY0501-05, sea-ice cover has ranged between 5.5 and 9 months/year, summer SSS has varied between 22 and 30, and summer SST has ranged from 3 to 7.5 8C (Fig. 7). (McKay et al., 2008)

Stranne et al., 2013 demonstrated that the modern day Arctic sea ice extent is more comparable to that of the last Pleistocene glacial stage than to that of the Holocene Climatic Optimum (9,000-5,000 years before present).

Microsoft Word - Arctic sea ice -QSR revised

Figure 2.  Annual mean sea ice thickness for the three different simulations (Panel a) compared with results from published paleo-sea ice studies (Panel b). Black curve: constant surface albedo; red curve: dynamic surface albedo parameterization. The simulation implemented with a dynamic surface albedo parameterization was run from present time and backwards to address the importance of the initial state of the sea ice cover. The annual mean sea ice thickness from this simulation (orange curve) reveals a hysteresis of ∼1000 years. The annual mean insolation at 80°N shown with a stippled curve is based on the algorithm presented by Berger (1978). To compare the results from different paleo-sea ice studies a scale of sea ice concentration was inferred using the approach by Jakobsson et al. (2010). This scale must be considered as highly qualitative because none of the paleo-sea ice proxies provide absolute measures of past sea ice concentrations. The number preceding each bar representing the result of a paleo-sea ice study corresponds to the following references: 1: Hanslik et al. (2010); 2: Cronin et al. (2010); 3: de Vernal et al. (2005); 4: England et al. (2008); 5: Funder et al. (2011); 6: Bennike (2004); 7: Dyke et al. (1996); 8: Vare et al. (2009); 9: Belt et al. (2010); 10: Müller et al. (2012). MY = Multi Year; LF = Land Fast Ice. (Stranne et al., 2013)

 

holocene-1

Figure 3.  The Little Ice Age was one of the two coldest phases of the Holocene in the Arctic.

Funny thing about Science News

1975-03-01

Figure 4. “The Ice Age Cometh.” (Science News, March 1, 1975)

From March 1975 to May 2017, Science News has gone from “the Ice Age cometh” to “Arctic sea ice… accelerating to oblivion”… Ohhhhhh Noooooooo!!!

MrBill

Figure 5. Ohhhhhh Noooooooo!!!

References

Alley, R.B. 2000. The Younger Dryas cold interval as viewed from central Greenland. Quaternary Science Reviews 19:213-226.

Desch, S.  et al. Arctic ice management. Earth’s Future. Vol. 5, January 24, 2017, p. 107. doi: 10.1002/2016EF000410.

McKay, J.L., A. de Vernal, C. Hillaire-Marcel, C. Not, L. Polyak, and D. Darby. 2008. Holocene fluctuations in Arctic sea-ice cover: dinocyst-based reconstructions for the eastern Chukchi Sea. Can. J. Earth Sci. 45: 1377–1397

Stranne C, Jakobsson M, Björk G, 2014 Arctic Ocean perennial sea ice breakdown during the Early Holocene Insolation Maximum. Quaternary Science Reviews 92: 123132.

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MarkW

Insulating warm water from the cold air helps to keep the air cooler??????
Looks like this scientist needs to study some more science.

MarkW

Got that backwards in my haste to have the first post. Dang.

Bryan A

If trapping the Warm Water beneth the ice causes the ice to become thinner, and if thicher ice traps more warm water due to the insulative properties of thick ice, then wouldn’t thickening the ice in turn trap more warm water beneth the ice causing th eice to grow thinner? Not to mention that is Salt Water they would be pumping on top of fresh water ice. The last I checked, the salt would leach out of the ice as the water freezes causing a layer of salt to remain on the surface. Doesn’t salting ice cause it to melt faster?

Greg

This is the banal “albedo” argument, which takes one parameter out of context and then refuses to look at observations to see whether ignoring everything else in the Arctic climate system makes sense as a method of prediction.
If less ice meant more net heating leading to more ice melting we would be in a positive feedback situation.
The OGM ice minima of 2007 and 2012 would have been followed by even faster melting the next year and very rapidly accelerating ice loss. This is what happens under positive feedback.
So what does the data tell us? What happened after the OGM ice melting of 2007? Was 2008 even lower and worse again in 2009 ? NO THERE WAS A REBOUND.

What happened after the OMG-OMG-I-CANT-BREATHE ice minimum of 2012? Well Cryosat2 measured a massive 45% INCREASE in Arctic sea ice volume. That is about as solid a observational falsification of the supposedly dominant positive feedback provided by ice albedo.

While the albedo principal is correct , clearly it is over-ridden by stronger negative feedbacks and is in reality insignificant. The 2016 Sept min was the same as 2007 and notably more than 2012. There is not way that is consistent with the proposition that albedo is a major factor.
These Toy-town political activist pseudo-scientists, like Steven Desch, need to go back the observational data and check their science before making total fools of themselves and having the hubris to present themselves as an authority of what policy is required.
Gentlemen, climate is complicated. Stop trying to reduce it to a single variable equation.
In 2013 I noted the presence of a circa 5y cycle in arctic sea ice data. 2012-2007=5 2012+5=2017 . This year will be to next trough in the cycle. Though I doubt it will be as low as 2012.
2018 will see a notable increase in arctic sea ice cover.

Sara

He probably doesn’t watch the ice in his soda or iced tea subliming and melting, all at the same time. We should send him pictures or something. Somebody stop him, PLEASE!!!

Bryan A

isn’t watching Ice Sublimate just too sublime?

Louis Hooffstetter

“Ice is a good insulator, says Steven Desch, a planetary scientist at Arizona State University in Tempe. That’s why moons such as Jupiter’s Europa and Saturn’s Enceladus, among others, may be able to maintain liquid oceans beneath their thick icy surfaces.”
Steven Desch is an idiot. These moons are heated by tidal flexing as they orbit giant gas planets. That’s how they maintain liquid oceans beneath their icy surfaces:
http://www.astrobio.net/news-exclusive/high-tide-on-europa/
One would think a ‘planetary scientist’ at Arizona State University should know that.

Scouser_AZ

That would sort of ruin the plans for increased shipping through the famed NW Passage wouldn’t it?

mellyrn

“The thicker the ice, the more heat gets trapped [in the ocean]….”
So, shouldn’t that cause the ocean to heat up catastrophically and boil us all? Isn’t the companion argument, “the ‘thicker’ (so to speak) the CO2, the more heat gets trapped [in the atmosphere]”?

PiperPaul

How much paid 4 dumb paper?

M Seward

Standard rate for an LPU(*) I guess, whatever that is in today’s market.
* Least Publishable Unit – not a joke, that is what academics call such crap.

PiperPaul

Me not surprised. Me wonders if exists climate slush pile for buying nonsense writingzes.
http://s13.postimg.org/gwlrqgsw7/make_climate_change_go.png

mothcatcher

?counting the US500Bn or not.
Maybe we should turn Ice-breakers into Ice-makers instead? Could cover 10pc of the arctic for less, I would think

Bryan A

margueritaville ahoy

Karl Compton

Salt water requires colder temps to freeze, so bring billions of bottles of Ozarka and pour that on the ice, where it will freeze more easily. And you can buy 166 billion gallons, in 2.6 trillion pint bottles, at WalMart for $500B. And we could cure the unemployment problem by hiring the homeless to open and pour out all those bottles!

Bryan A

Don’t forget about your $130B refundable deposit 5¢ each bottle

Juan Slayton

Let me see if I get this. Ice currently forms from the bottom up, and melts from the top down. It’s melting faster than it’s freezing, so if we pump water from underneath (which has more latent energy than the ice on top), it will then magically freeze despite the insolation which is causing the top layer to melt? Hmm….

Yes the technique has been used to make thick ice islands as working platforms in the Beaufort Sea.
“The use of ice as a support material for offshore oil and gas exploration began in 1973 at the Hecla exploration well in the Canadian High Arctic. The floating drilling pad used artificial thickening of the natural ice sheet by flooding with seawater. Build-up rates where dictated by the time required to freeze thin layers of water, which were repeatedly added to the frozen core. Close to 40 floating ice pads were successfully used between 1973 and 1986 in the Canadian High Arctic using flooding and freezing techniques in water depths up to 500m (Masterson et al 1987).”
https://www.boem.gov/BOEM-Newsroom/Library/Publications/2005/c_core468.aspx

richardscourtney

David Middleton:
Thankyou for that report. I have a question that results from it.
Why would anybody want to stop the Arctic waters from becoming ice free?
Richard

Thomas Homer

richardscourtney asks: “Why would anybody want to stop the Arctic waters from becoming ice free?”
Knowing that ice, whether covering sea or land, hinders photosynthesis. And photosynthesis is necessary to extract Carbon from atmospheric Carbon Dioxide to form the base of the food chain for all Carbon Based Life Forms. I ask the analogous question:
Why would anyone want to hinder photosynthesis?

michael hart

“..but global warming is causing ice to melt faster than it can be replaced”.

Until late September, that is.
I presume “Accelerating to oblivion” is the new alternative to “death spiral”.

Gunga Bin

Ice – It’s what’s for winter!

Gunga Din

OOPS!
Typo in my name! :Din”, not “Bin”

PiperPaul

Ice – It’s what’s for Bunga Gin!
(Sorry)

Sara

That is probably the worst argument for scamming tax money I’ve run into so far, and people in Congress are so dumb they will fall for it like hail dumping out of the sky.
What is this dork trying to do besides scam money out of us? Is he looking at trying to recreate the ‘Snowball Earth’ theory thingy and put it into action? Or is he just using a lot of buzzwords to convince the idiots in Congress to vote for another useless waste of money?
We could save the planet a lot faster if he and others like him could just, for a few weeks, stop talking. Think of the drop in CO2 levels that would happen, if they did that!

TomR,Worc,MA,USA

“You’re going to be mean to me !!!”

Matt S

“Ice is a good insulator,”
Arctic ice loss allows the arcitic ocean to lose heat. Ice loss is a negative feedback.

The Original Mike M

That’s right and warming that occurs as the result of less ice happens in the dark during the winter while summer time temperatures have remained unchanged for decades. Less ice let’s more ocean heat out.
Given that I favor more warming I am therefore in favor of this hair brained idea … if someone else pays for it that is!

RAH

They can’t even keep their little buoy weather monitoring stations and web cams working up there and this guy thinks buoyed windmills will remain functional? And those things move all over the place. Think of what your windmills are going to do.
I’ve gotta an idea professor Desch. You and your team will be responsible for the pilot project of one windmill and responsible for keeping it running year around for one full year. I wanna see you guys in a blizzard up on top of that thing trying to unfreeze the works and deice the blades. And while your at it you will have to install a capture cage at the induction for pump and replace every little critter that is caught and killed in it, one for one, just as coal fired power stations using salt water do. We don’t want any negative environmental impact from your scheme now do we?

oeman50

And how are they going keep the pumps from icing up? The discharge will be in the sub freezing air and will ice up quickly. Oops.

D. J. Hawkins

Probably the same way that ski area operators keep theirs from icing up in, say, Vermont, during the winter. I’m not defending the deployment of such a solution, but as an engineering puzzle it’s likely very solvable with off-the-shelf technology.

TA

“They can’t even keep their little buoy weather monitoring stations and web cams working up there and this guy thinks buoyed windmills will remain functional?”
What if a polar bear climbs up there and gets injured or killed!

Windmills? Environmental issues …

Gunga Din

Penguin choppers!
OH NOS!!!!

Rather bear choppers … 😁

MarkW

The windmills are rather tall, and as everyone knows White Bears Can’t Jump.

Erik Pedersen

While sea ice is decreasing in the north the ice is increasing in the south. It seems to be a zero sum system…

sunsettommy

Here is one from 1975,
Birds and Climatic Change
Kenneth Williamson
Published in 1975
Selected Excerpt:
HISTORICAL REVIEW
Between 1000 and 1300 average summer temperatures were about 1°C higher
than today, with the mean annual temperature higher by perhaps 4°C in a
largely ice-free Arctic. Eric the Red, a renowned world citizen of that time, has
been much maligned as the first progressive publicity man for giving Greenland
a false image in order to attract settlers; but in truth, the southwest of that vast
country was warmer and greener by far than at any time until the Fieldfares
Turdus pilaris arrived there in the mid-1930s. The sea-temperature of the Atlantic
was higher than it has been since, and there appears to have been none or very
little ice to hinder the Vikings’ communications between Iceland, Greenland,
Newfoundland and Labrador (Mowat 1965). Indeed Brooks (1926) considers that
the polar ice-cap may have disappeared entirely during the summer months, to
build anew each winter.
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/00063657509476459
=======================================================
It is on page 2.

Ice.
Fantastic stuff in a Gin and Tonic with a nice slice of a tropical lemon.
A drink designed to remind us how lucky we are that we have abundant food, and the alternative is a sterile, cold material, that melts, and dilutes the alcohol, whilst maintaining the liquid level in the glass.
Amazing stuff really, but as far as I can gather, in the wild, it’s only useful for one thing. Boring holes, by boring people, determined to convince us they know what they are looking at.
Ice.

sunsettommy

Brand new paper,
Holocene variability in sea ice cover, primary production, and Pacific-Water inflow and climate change in the Chukchi and East Siberian Seas (Arctic Ocean)
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jqs.2929/abstract
Chart based on the data they used for the paper:
http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Arctic-Sea-Ice-Holocene-Stein-17-768×496.jpg
=====================================================================
The chart suggest that for a brief time during the LIA,the Arctic ice cap was full all year, no summer melting to speak of.

no summer melting to speak of.
====================
first step on the way to full ice age. maybe coal and CO2 is what saved us?

from wikipedia:
“The Industrial Revolution, which began in Britain in the 18th century, and later spread to continental Europe, North America, and Japan, was based on the availability of coal to power steam engines.”
The 18th century was when the Little Ice Age ended. Proof positive that Britain and the steam engine saved the world from the next ice age. Wasn’t another WATT involved at that time as well?

stevekeohane

From March 1975 to May 2017, Science News has gone from “the Ice Age cometh” to “Arctic sea ice… accelerating to oblivion”… Ohhhhhh Noooooooo!!!
Which is why after reading it for over sixty years, I stopped several years ago.

Clay Sanborn

A better idea is to do like Los Angeles did to Los Angeles Reservoir in Sylmar, 25 miles northwest of downtown , and dump 4 in. diameter plastic balls on the Arctic. Since the Arctic is about 5.5 Million sq. mi., address half of it, or about 2.7 Million sq. mi. I figure it would cost about $340,662,857,142,857.1 to cover half the Arctic with plastic balls. Spending hundreds of times the World’s GDP on the project may be an issue. See: http://sacramento.cbslocal.com/2015/08/12/los-angeles-dumps-96-million-shade-balls-in-lake-to-protect-water-in-drought/

BallBounces

Ice-making boys would solve a lot of employment problems, too.

PiperPaul

Is that like soda jerks?

Samuel C Cogar

+10 1/2

Bengt Abelsson

The Swedish meteorogical office SMHI has don a reconsruction of the ice cover in the Baltic sea, since 1660.
Abstract
“The annual maximum ice cover Cmax and ice extent Amax in the Baltic Sea are important indicators of regional winter climate in northern Europe. Apart from modern-day operational ice charts, proxy data such as coastal observations, mean winter air temperature and ice break-up dates have been used to reconstruct Cmax and Amax back to 1660.
Consolidated time series were constructed by giving the proxy time series different weights. These weights were calculated as inversely proportional to the mean square errors of the time series during the calibration period 1961–1990.
The consolidated time series indicate large interannual variability as well as interdecadal variability. In spite of the recent mild winters in the Baltic Sea region, the large interannual variabilities of Cmax Amax make the calculated trends over moving 30-year windows mostly insignificant in a statistical sense.”
Nothing here, move on, please.

Walter Sobchak

For 500G$ we could buy every Eskimo a double wide and a really nice pick-up.

ckb42

You know, they used to harvest ice from Walden Pond in Concord, MA and ship it all over the world. Maybe we should start up the ice harvesting business infrastructure again and ship it all up to Santa. We owe him that much.

RAH

Guess you never heard of this show:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2168326/

Tom Halla

What, pray tell, is the great benefit of having Arctic ice caps anyway? The seals can just haul out on land, and so forth. What was the sea ice level during the Medieval Warm, and what dread effects did that have?

Butch

Yet more proof that these people are certifiably insane !!

Gary Pearse

50,000 for manufacture shipping and installion of a bouy to support a windmill and survive weather and crushing ice- BS !!! Oh, and what CO2 hasn’t accomplished, this ignorant scheme could if it had the miracle of working,:kill off seals, polar bears,… Now I think his work on other planet’s is totally suspect. Note: no engineers were disturbed during the making of this fantasy.

wws

I have a truly radical idea – let it get “cured” the same way that the Great California Drought got cured.
And my plan is cheaper, too!!!

Kassandra

Windmills and pumps operating at -90C. Yep, can’t see anything wrong with that plan.
[Usually no colder than -35 to -40C up around 80 north latitude. It is the high elevations on top of the Antarctic ice cap that can get that cold. Sometimes. .mod]

Kassandra

Ah my mistake. My brain saw ‘Antarctica’, not Arctic, and wikipedia told me it can get as cold as -90C there, although I’m sure that’s a rare extreme also.

secryn

Please be advised that building and installing $500 bilion worth of windmills would be very profitable for certain companies, and thus would be a really really good thing for America and the world. How do we send more funding to this guy?
sincerely,
Warren Buffet, Vestas, Siemens and General Electric

secryn

Oohh, oohh, how do I get in on that?
Elon

MarkW

New York Stock exchange is open 5 days a week.

Gunga Din

And, of course, they’ll need backup solar provided by Solyndra.

Resourceguy

Instead of covering the Arctic with tax credits in the form of windmills built by lobbyists, it might be easier to get educated on natural cycles of ocean heat content.

I would think that this attempt to change a large geographic area’s albedo would be more easilly done by covering rooftops with mirrored sheets of aluminum alloy and reflecting the rays back to space in a far more efficient manner than ice could ever do, Those alloy sheets would also have the energy saving benefit of requiring far less energy to run the A/C in the summer. We don’t know what the benefit of those ice making windmills will be – perhaps none at all if not really needed, whereas the benefits of reflective roofs would be there , irregardless.

MarkW

I’ve facetiously claimed that if we painted all roofs and all cars in our big cities white, we could eliminate global warming.
More sunlight reflected equals cooler air temperatures.
Less sunlight absorbed by buildings and cars means less energy being discharged from AC units equals cooler air temperatures.
These cooler air temperatures mean AC’s don’t have to work as hard, equaling cooler air temperatures.
And since most of the ground based thermometers are located in and around cities …

Jer0me

In winter I love getting a load of warmth from the sun on my roof. Summer not so much.
So have a black cover for winter, and a reflecting one for summer. And employees to change it over, of course 🙂

Griff

“Since we know that the current Arctic sea ice extent is much larger than that of most of the Holocene”
Well in the early holocene there was very little ice at all – but! there were very special conditions then, due to the stage of the Milankovitch cycle the earth was then in – the orbital orientation was such that there was much, much more insolation falling onto the arctic during the arctic summer.
Once we’d moved out of that part of the cycle, the ‘ground’ conditions were very different -so there is no comparison between now or even the last 2,000 years and the earlier part of the holocene.
If you look at ‘recent’ sea ice history, certainly we are at the lowest extent since 1850 (according to the recent collation of all available records since that date – and I do mean all)
We are far lower than the low in the last ‘cycle’ around 1943
And the trend is still lower… this winter saw record low extents thru the winter and thin, broken ice is now spread out, being exported and set to go in yet another record melt season

MarkW

Actually we aren’t, but thanks for playing.

PiperPaul

Griff is worried about this loss because he misplaced his recipe for ice cubes.

Griff

Perhaps you’d like to set out your reasons for believing the arctic sea ice won’t challenge 2007/2016 or even 2012?

Griff

Hey Paul – should I be grilling them or frying them? Frying is unhealthy, right?

sunsettommy

Griff,
you post this crap again,as you were answered at another blog on this. You are indeed a dishonest person and stupid too, because as YOU admit that it was, I quote: “Well in the early holocene there was very little ice at all…” ,yet you seem to understand that such conditions didn’t cause any visible ecological or biological disaster.
Meanwhile here is that chart AGAIN you ignored yesterday,where it shows that currently, it is well above the average for the entire interglacial.:
http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Arctic-Sea-Ice-Holocene-Stein-17-768×496.jpg

Griff

I’m posting the science Tommy…
For example this:
http://www.geo.umass.edu/faculty/bradley/bradley2003x.pdf
“On the very longest, multi-millennial time-scales, the main factors affecting Holocene climate change are related to orbital forcing (changes in obliquity, precession and eccentricity). These changes involved virtually no change in overall global insolation receipts (over the course of each year) but significant re-distribution of energy, both seasonally and latitudinally.”
“In the Early Holocene, precessional changes led to perihelion at the time of the northern hemisphere summer solstice (today it is closer to the winter solstice). This resulted in higher summer insolation in the Early Holocene at all latitudes of the northern hemisphere (ranging from ∼40°W/m2 higher than today at 60°N to 25°W/m2 higher at the Equator). Thus, July insolation (radiation at the top, or outside, the atmosphere) has slowly decreased over the last 12,000 years”
Insolation in the arctic summer was massively greater than now, thus melting the ice.
We don’t have the same orbital forcing now -yet we do have declining ice levels.
You can’t compare then and now without acknowledging there was a particular influence then we don’t have now

AndyG55

Holocene Optimum has been shown to be world wide.. shown to YOU many times..
You just ignore the facts.
Your Milankovitch cycle crap is meaningless.

AndyG55

Arctic sea ice extent has been LOWER than current for around 95% of the Holocene.
DON’T PANIC, griff, your pee-brain with have a tanty !!

Tom in Florida

In the NH, the waters continue to warm into September which is when they are the warmest even though the maximum energy from the Sun was received way back in June at the summer solstice. But even though there is less energy received each day forward from then on, the net accumulation into the NH is still positive until September so the waters keep warming till then. So we are in the August of the interglacial. Earth will continue to warm, albeit less and less as we move forward until such time that the Milankovitch cycles create conditions to produce a net loss of energy received. So just as the waters warm into September, one should expect the conditions on Earth to continue warming until the very end of the interglacial.
Or more simply, it is always gets warmer until it starts to get cooler.

If you look at ‘recent’ sea ice history, certainly we are at the lowest extent since 1850 (according to the recent collation of all available records since that date – and I do mean all)
____
In 1850, earth was starting to emerge from the Little Ice Age. How could sea ice be low at the end of this period of extremely low temperatures? I suspect a cut and paste job from some publication that specializes in fools and the gullible.

Scarface

Now that.is very funny…. cheered me up no end.

MarkW

I know, I know. The buoys can be designed to capsize every couple of days and that would cause the ice on the blades to melt.

The thicker the ice, the more heat gets trapped
===========
so, strange as it might seem, the solution to making more ice is to have less ice. no windmills required, as the ice melts it becomes easier to make ice, keeping the whole thing in balance. negative feedback in action.

TA

In other words, you are for allowing nature to follow its natural course.

Steve R

The problem is, (from the warmist perspective), loss of sea ice is a SYMPTOM of a warming world. It doesnt cause warming, in fact its very presense tends to inhibit the loss of heat. So taking an action to treat this symptom can only make matters worse (by trapping even more heat).
Ironically, a rational true believer (if there is such a person) would advocate the artificial destruction of sea ice. To let the extra heat out you see.
This whole discussion is crazy talk nonetheless.

RAH

David Middleton.
None of my criticisms were aimed at you. It’s just that this arctic windmill pumping idea ranks right up there with solar panel roads in my book. And the problem is that some people believe this kind of thing is practical because some guy with a PhD says so.
There is another problem I see with these kinds of articles. Though they provide plenty of material for you guys here at WUWT and on some other blogs and we can laugh at them as so many knowledgeable posters and authors here tear them apart I believe they cause a kind of cumulative damage.
Being constantly bombarded by this kind of stuff makes it easy to for people to become rather jaundiced skeptics and so when the occasional feasible idea that may actually be of some benefit for the people or their environment in general comes along a tendency can develop to be overly skeptical.
During WW II the great engineer Barnes Wallis ran up against this very kind of thing in the halls of British war bureaucracy trying to get his dam buster project and later his huge bombs approved for development and production. The officers in the bureaucracy had been so inundated with silly ideas for weapons and suggestions that they had become overly skeptical.

Gary Pearse

RAH, TV producers, novelists, engineers… get flooded with ‘wonderful’ ideas from viewers, readers and interested laity. It tends not to prove an inspiring resource for ideas. Engineers have a kindly affection for their professors of science who taught them and don’t tend to poke fun when they take an excursion into engineering, which they are fascinated with. The oxymoron ‘rocket scientist’ (er… that would be ‘engineer’), born at the start of the space programs, arose from this fascination with the work of engineers. Everyone wanted a piece of this wonderful discipline. Early dish or laundry soap ads of the period, even said their soap had been engineered to do it’s wonders on your dishes and clothes (this actually is a bit more true than the fabled rocket science).
In Canada’s Dept of Nat Resources many years ago, it was decided that government scientists should have more of an economic basis for their research. A committee was duly constituted. The geological survey flooded the mineral resources/mining agencies with loads of naive stuff (eg: a geologist whose specialty was the petrology and structure of granite pointed out that granite had abundant potash that might be exploited. That the K was in insoluble silicates like feldspar and mica didn’t phase him). Not too long afterwards, the committee was dissolved because of the flood of nonsense that had to be replied to.
I’m a geologist and engineer and had argued against such a committee. Note, however, that engineer Wallis, a practical man by training, did succeed in selling his idea to the war department. This icing up the Arctic would probably kill off seals by filling in their holes and kill off polar bears, etc. all this to prevent a problem that hasn’t even been established. The Arctic variability goes well beyond anything we are seeing today and models for CAGW theory are already running 300% to warm. Do nothing (please!!). A plea from an engineer and scientist.

RAH

Gary Pearse
If Sir Wallace had not been so stubborn in pounding on doors and keeping at them none of it would have ever happened. He met that resistance despite the fact that he was the lead engineer that had developed the geodetic (geodesic) air frame for the Wellington bomber that was still in front line service with bomber command when he was working on getting the dams project off the ground. It got so silly that after his idea was first officially rejected he wrote an open paper on how the dams bomb would work. He got a visit from British counter intelligence asking why he was publishing such highly classified stuff so Wallace told them he had been told officially that it was rejected as unworkable and asked how could it be classified or sensitive under those circumstances?

Steve R

The problem is, (from the warmist perspective), loss of sea ice is a SYMPTOM of a warming world. It doesnt cause warming, in fact its very presense tends to inhibit the loss of heat. So taking an action to treat this symptom can only make matters worse (by trapping even more heat).
Ironically, a rational true believer (if there is such a person) would advocate the artificial destruction of sea ice. To let the extra heat out you see.
This whole discussion is crazy talk nonetheless.

Steve R

I used to daydream about a “device” which could be used to quickly call the warmist’s bluff. This magical device would automatically regulate the entire planet’s atmospheric CO2 concentration to 250 ppm, just like the warmists claim they want. Once activated, the device cannot be altered.
I always assumed that when confronted with a choice of giving them what they wanted, they would quickly come to their senses and admit to their foolishness. Today, however, I see a different breed, the true believers, and realize they would sacrifice us all in the name of global warming, without batting an eye.
These are scary people.

ossqss

Is it just me, or are there a large amout of contradictions in this piece?

Solving non existing problems by illusory means;
bad influence of ‘peer review’ !

Bruce Cobb

Hey, I have an idea; how about millions of solar-powered refrigerators set on buoys, and just leave the doors on them open? Problem solved!

Obviously ‘peer review’ is the minor profeteer of climate wars.

Berényi Péter

They estimate that it would cost $500 billion to cover 10% of the Arctic Ocean with ice-making buoys…

To make a difference, they should cover the entire Arctic Ocean, with a price tag of $5 trillion. Still a pittance compared to projected costs of climate change mitigation.
But wait. Pumping large amount of salt water on the upper surface of ice floes is the best way to melt them completely.
Unfortunately there is a physical phenomenon called brine exclusion. It means when salt water freezes, the remaining fluid is enriched in salt, because ice crystals do not like it. If it happens on top, that very salty liquid is forced to trickle down to the ocean through the ice floe, making a gazillion of channels along the way and leaving it really rotten, subject to melting during the next summer.
Never mind.

Ron Williams

Sea ice is mainly fresh water if it is thick enough, so heck of a way to make fresh water out of salt water using the cold of winter. Would work anywhere it is cold enough to freeze salt water. I read somewhere that some cities freeze water in winter, and use that melting ice water for summer air conditioning in downtown office towers.
An interesting ‘thought’ article about possibly providing a solution…if there was a problem with diminishing arctic ice levels. But just think of all the bats that would be killed with 1 million of these bird choppers.

Gunga Din

Maybe the Climate Seance mediums have realized one of their prophesies needs a little help from Man to come true?

It didn’t seem to have the effect you claim when they actually did it multiple times in the Arctic.

Berényi Péter

They did no experiment whatsoever, they only propose to do so. It’s modeling all the way down as usual.
Arctic ice management
“Questions about the feasibility of the device and its local effects are probably best solved by building a prototype and experimenting with it in the field.”

Berényi Péter May 4, 2017 at 6:28 am
They did no experiment whatsoever, they only propose to do so. It’s modeling all the way down as usual.

Wrong, it’s been done multiple times before:
“Close to 40 floating ice pads were successfully used between 1973 and 1986 in the Canadian High Arctic using flooding and freezing techniques in water depths up to 500m (Masterson et al 1987).”

Eugene WR Gallun

I am somewhat confused. I have always thought sea ice freezes from above and melts from below. (If I am wrong about this I hope someone will take a few minutes and teach me. I don’t want to remain stupid.)
Cold winter air chills first sea water and as ice forms chills the ice so that ice in contact with sea water causes the sea water to freeze adding to the thickness of the ice. Or to put it another way — during winter when sea ice is forming — sea ice is always colder than the sea water.
During summer the sea ice gains temperature from the air and is no longer able to freeze the sea water around it. Instead the sea water begins to melt the ice from below. The sea ice melts from the bottom up.
Have i misunderstood how sea ice forms and dissolves? Its what i have always thought.
If what i have said is true it seems pumping up water from just below the ice to let it freeze on the ice surface only causes lower warmer water to replace what is removed — probably, at a certain ice thickness, causing the ice to begin to melt from below. (Not to mention that this water poured on top of the ice would lower ice temperature slowing the chilling process of the sea water below.) Perhaps, at the beginning, this method might cause ice to thicken quicker but I can’t see how it would increase total thickness past a certain maximum.
So if all sea water below the ice maintained the same low temperature all the time we would have a perfect relationship between air temperature and sea ice thickness.
What seems to screw this up are ocean currents. Warm water from the south flows to the north and it seems the majority of it can go one way or another. If it heads into the arctic you are going to get thinner sea ice, that warmer water being harder to freeze. (And quicker melting of sea ice in the summer.) Now that is a very old idea.
So there is a relationship between ice thickness and air and water temperatures. (I suspect the arctic air and arctic water temperatures vary independently of each other.) Cold air and cold water produce the most ice. Warmer air and warmer water produce the least ice.
Anyway that is what i have always believed.
Eugene WR Gallun

K. Kilty

On deeper inspection most problems are more complicated than simple models suggest. The growth of ice is a classic problem (Stefan problem) in heat transfer–the result is an ice thickness that grows with square-root of time. However, the Stefan problem does not account for the issue of a freezing temperature that changes according to the mechanism which Berényi Péter lays out in his post above. And the melting of ice is far more complex than just drawing heat from a warmer body into the ice. Pools of water appear on the ice surface and descend through fissures and fractures. The Stefan problem does not account for the resulting convective heat transfer during melting.
That most problems are more complex than simple models suggest doesn’t often bother scientists who are after a general understanding of a problem. Yet when the issue becomes an engineering problem of trying to make some scheme work in a practical sense, then the complications do become important. This silly scheme is an engineering problem–one looking to solve a problem that may not be a problem at all.

Ron Williams

One of the key problems with this scheme is that freezing salt water ‘squeezes’ the salt out the bottom of the new ice that is created on top of the fresh water ice that is already frozen. Then that concentrated salt brine sandwiched between the two ice layers would rapidly melt the original fresh water ice below it. Might make this project self defeating. More thought is required on this project before implementation.
But it is a interesting thought experiment, and as David M. says, we shouldn’t be too fast to just outright ridicule everything we think is stupid or funny. For every 100 questionable thought experiments, there will be 1 that is a hit and solves problems or makes money. Keep ’em coming….next?

Ron Williams

I see I mistakenly stated this was your comment but was actually RAH May 3, 2017 at 8:46 am. My mistake.
I think your reply point below his was not ‘to cry wolf’ at every lame idea, since some ideas may have merit, or can be built upon to be successful. For the record, I am also against any schemes to make the planet any colder. We already in an ice age the last 1.5 years, and only in a temporary interglacial that will undoubtably end fairly soon in the scheme of things.

K. Kilty

I would also suggest the following paper, which I think is excellent:
The dynamic Arctic , Martin Jakobssona, , , Ólafur Ingólfssonb, c, Antony J. Longd, Robert F. Spielhagene. Here is one excerpt:

Consequently, ice sheet advances and retreats are all too often interpreted as evidence for climate events, disregarding the possibility that they may reflect changes in ice dynamics, e.g., rapid changes in grounding-line position in response to sea-level oscillations.

Reasonable Skeptic

I think it would be wise to have dual purpose buoys, just in case. So I suggest we make the buoys so that they could both make ice and melt ice as well.

Eugene WR Gallun

Also should add — if Europa and Enceladus have liquid below their ice then their cores must be generating heat. How this core heat is generated might not be the same way Earth’s core heat is generated.
Eugene WR Gallun

Retired Kit P

You want me to do what?
Pump near freezing water on a below freezing windy day in the open ocean near ice flows so you can pump water with a metal windmill onto the ice.
The first set of conditions produces frazzle ice particles in the water which will glob onto to the metal parts of the pump and clog it up with ice.

Eugene WR Gallun

Retired Kit P — You are a brutal man. — Eugene WR Gallun

Eugene WR Gallun

Retired Kit P
Quite obviously you need an auxillary heating system to heat the water enough so that does not happen. That can be supplied by solar panels. Then everything is hunky dory.
Eugene WR Gallun

Tom in Florida

Solar panels, in the Arctic winter? Who are you really, Bill Nye?

Yirgach
Brian R

Let me get this straight. One group of scientist whacko’s says that arctic is losing sea ice and that is bad. They point to the loss of multi-year sea ice and scream bloody murder. Another group of scientist whacko’s says that sea ice doesn’t let heat from the water escape to the atmosphere. They say that too thick of sea ice(multi-year) is bad because it slows down the formation of sea ice.
And they wonder why sceptics don’t believe them.

Phil

” McKay et al., 2008 demonstrated that the modern Arctic sea ice cover is anomalously high”. As Dr McKay points out- We’re possibly starting the real fall into the next glaciation. The timing is right. Almost all the ice core data points to a long, slow, sporadic fall from the maximum temperature down to the gradual extension of the ice cover over ~100,000 years.

old man

Does pumping salty water on top of the ice have any effect on the ice?
[Other than locally melting the sea ice under the salt water? .mod]

OBLIVION in unix = /dev/tty/null
Where’s
/dev = device, devices
/tty = connected with, connection
/null = empty, useless
So OBLIVION in unix is needed when there’s superfluous data processing output:
call it ‘cloud 9’

Paul Penrose

I have a counter proposal. Give me just 1/500th of the 500 billion and I will fix the problem in just 30 years. What a deal, eh? /sarc just in case

Myron Mesecke

“Accelerating to oblivion”?
(Rocky Horror Picture Show)
Riff Raff: “Say goodbye to all of this; and hello to oblivion.”