Another Manntastic claim: Extreme weather events linked to climate change impact on the jet stream

From Penn State, and the “close but no cigar” department (see bold in text) comes this modelspalooza masquerading as science:

On the is an image of the global circulation pattern on a normal day. On the right is the image of the global circulation pattern when extreme weather occurs. The pattern on the right shows extreme patterns of wind speeds going north and south, while the normal pattern on the left shows moderate speed winds in both the north and south directions. CREDIT Michael Mann, Penn State

Unprecedented summer warmth and flooding, forest fires, drought and torrential rain — extreme weather events are occurring more and more often, but now an international team of climate scientists has found a connection between many extreme weather events and the impact climate change is having on the jet stream.

“We came as close as one can to demonstrating a direct link between climate change and a large family of extreme recent weather events,” said Michael Mann, distinguished professor of atmospheric science and director, Earth System Science Center, Penn State. “Short of actually identifying the events in the climate models.”

The unusual weather events that piqued the researchers’ interest are things such as the 2003 European heat wave, the 2010 Pakistan flood and Russian heatwave, the 2011 Texas and Oklahoma heat wave and drought and the 2015 California wildfires.

The researchers looked at a combination of roughly 50 climate models from around the world that are part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), which is part of the World Climate Research Programme. These models are run using specific scenarios and producing simulated data that can be evaluated across the different models. However, while the models are useful for examining large-scale climate patterns and how they are likely to evolve over time, they cannot be relied on for an accurate depiction of extreme weather events. That is where actual observations prove critical.

The researchers looked at the historical atmospheric observations to document the conditions under which extreme weather patterns form and persist. These conditions occur when the jet stream, a global atmospheric wave of air that encompasses the Earth, becomes stationary and the peaks and troughs remain locked in place.

“Most stationary jet stream disturbances, however, will dissipate over time,” said Mann. “Under certain circumstances the wave disturbance is effectively constrained by an atmospheric wave guide, something similar to the way a coaxial cable guides a television signal. Disturbances then cannot easily dissipate, and very large amplitude swings in the jet stream north and south can remain in place as it rounds the globe.”

This constrained configuration of the jet stream is like a rollercoaster with high peaks and valleys, but only forms when there are six, seven or eight pairs of peaks and valleys surrounding the globe. The jet stream can then behave as if there is a waveguide — uncrossable barriers in the north and south — and a wave with large peaks and valleys can occur.

“If the same weather persists for weeks on end in one region, then sunny days can turn into a serious heat wave and drought, and lasting rains can lead to flooding,” said Stefan Rahmstorf, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany.

The structure of the jet stream relates to its latitude and the temperature gradient from north to south.

Temperatures typically have the steepest gradients in mid-latitudes and a strong circumpolar jet stream arises. However, when these temperature gradients decrease in just the right way, a weakened “double peak” jet stream arises with the strongest jet stream winds located to the north and south of the mid-latitudes.

“The warming of the Arctic, the polar amplification of warming, plays a key role here,” said Mann. “The surface and lower atmosphere are warming more in the Arctic than anywhere else on the globe. That pattern projects onto the very temperature gradient profile that we identify as supporting atmospheric waveguide conditions.”

Theoretically, standing jet stream waves with large amplitude north/south undulations should cause unusual weather events.

“We don’t trust climate models yet to predict specific episodes of extreme weather because the models are too coarse,” said study co-author Dim Coumou of PIK. “However, the models do faithfully reproduce large scale patterns of temperature change,” added co-author Kai Kornhuber of PIK.

The researchers looked at real-world observations and confirmed that this temperature pattern does correspond with the double-peaked jet stream and waveguide patter associated with persistent extreme weather events in the late spring and summer such as droughts, floods and heat waves. They found the pattern has become more prominent in both observations and climate model simulations.

“Using the simulations, we demonstrate that rising greenhouse gases are responsible for the increase,” said Mann. The researchers noted in today’s (Mar. 27) issue of Scientific Reports that “Both the models and observations suggest this signal has only recently emerged from the background noise of natural variability.”

“We are now able to connect the dots when it comes to human-caused global warming and an array of extreme recent weather events,” said Mann.

While the models do not reliably track individual extreme weather events, they do reproduce the jet stream patterns and temperature scenarios that in the real world lead to torrential rain for days, weeks of broiling sun and absence of precipitation.

“Currently we have only looked at historical simulations,” said Mann. “What’s up next is to examine the model projections of the future and see what they imply about what might be in store as far as further increases in extreme weather are concerned.”

###


If Mann’s press release wasn’t heavy on alarmism enough, read the press release by fellow RealCimateer Stefan Rahmstort

Weather extremes: Humans likely influence giant airstreams

POTSDAM INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE IMPACT RESEARCH (PIK)

The increase of devastating weather extremes in summer is likely linked to human-made climate change, mounting evidence shows. Giant airstreams are circling the Earth, waving up and down between the Arctic and the tropics. These planetary waves transport heat and moisture. When these planetary waves stall, droughts or floods can occur. Warming caused by greenhouse-gases from fossil fuels creates favorable conditions for such events, an international team of scientists now finds.

“The unprecedented 2016 California drought, the 2011 U.S. heatwave and 2010 Pakistan flood as well as the 2003 European hot spell all belong to a most worrying series of extremes,” says Michael Mann from the Pennsylvania State University in the U.S., lead-author of the study now to be published in Scientific Reports. “The increased incidence of these events exceeds what we would expect from the direct effects of global warming alone, so there must be an additional climate change effect. In data from computer simulations as well as observations, we identify changes that favor unusually persistent, extreme meanders of the jet stream that support such extreme weather events. Human activity has been suspected of contributing to this pattern before, but now we uncover a clear fingerprint of human activity.”

How sunny days can turn into a serious heat wave

“If the same weather persists for weeks on end in one region, then sunny days can turn into a serious heat wave and drought, or lasting rains can lead to flooding”, explains co-author Stefan Rahmstorf from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany. “This occurs under specific conditions that favor what we call a quasi-resonant amplification that makes the north-south undulations of the jet stream grow very large. It also makes theses waves grind to a halt rather than moving from west to east. Identifying the human fingerprint on this process is advanced forensics.”

Air movements are largely driven by temperature differences between the Equator and the Poles. Since the Arctic is more rapidly warming than other regions, this temperature difference is decreasing. Also, land masses are warming more rapidly than the oceans, especially in summer. Both changes have an impact on those global air movements. This includes the giant airstreams that are called planetary waves because they circle Earth’s Northern hemisphere in huge turns between the tropics and the Arctic. The scientists detected a specific surface temperature distribution apparent during the episodes when the planetary waves eastward movement has been stalling, as seen in satellite data.

Using temperature measurements since 1870 to confirm findings in satellite data

“Good satellite data exists only for a relatively short time – too short to robustly conclude how the stalling events have been changing over time. In contrast, high-quality temperature measurements are available since the 1870s, so we use this to reconstruct the changes over time,” says co-author Kai Kornhuber, also from PIK. “We looked into dozens of different climate models – computer simulations called CMIP5 of this past period – as well as into observation data, and it turns out that the temperature distribution favoring planetary wave airstream stalling increased in almost 70 percent of the simulations since the start of the industrial age.”

Interestingly, most of the effect occured in the past four decades. “The more frequent persistent and meandering Jetstream states seems to be a relatively recent phenomenon, which makes it even more relevant,” says co-author Dim Coumou from the Department of Water and Climate Risk at VU University in Amsterdam (Netherlands). “We certainly need to further investigate this – there is some good evidence, but also many open questions. In any case, such non-linear responses of the Earth system to human-made warming should be avoided. We can limit the risks associated with increases in weather extremes if we limit greenhouse-gas emissions.”

###

Article: Michael E. Mann, Stefan Rahmstorf, Kai Kornhuber, Byron A. Steinman, Sonya K. Miller, Dim Coumou (2017): Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events. Scientific Reports [DOI: 10.1038/srep45242]

Weblink to the article once it is published: http://www.nature.com/articles/srep45242



To all this modeling sans empirical evidence I say:

Nature had an editorial five years ago that remains germane today:

Better models are needed before exceptional events can be reliably linked to global warming.

Having 50  models (as Mann’s PR says) isn’t necessarily better, but it does help convince people who believe that consensus is more important than actual evidence.

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Boy, the love their models… like the one that predicted the permanent California drought, I imagine. Their arrogance has no bounds.

Bryan A

Gotta love those graphics. Apparently man has been having a negative effect on the climate since 1950, when the GHG effect from fossil CO2 was supposed to “Kick In”. But, now apparently 1980 was “Nornal” when it comes to Climate??? 1964 & 1983 (El Nino years) saw record flooding in California Sonoma County alonf the Russian River basin, I guess this was “Normal” flooding and heavy rain events whereas 1998 and 2016 were Abbi-normal

Re abbi-normal – and you can’t even say “At least it is not raining”.

NorwegianSceptic

“Mann has been having a negative effect on the climate since 1988”.
– There, fixed it for ya !

Malcolm Bryer

What we have here is a whole generation that has grown up watching TV screens and computer screens believing everything that looks nice is therefore true. It is not science it is narcissism.

MarkW

As every modeler knows. The earth’s climate is completely stable and hasn’t changed once in the last couple of billion years.
Any changes that are happening now must have been caused by man.
The IPCC said it, I believe it, that settles it.

Texas never had a heat wave before 2011. Unprecedented.

Bryan A

And California never had a drought before 2010

4 Eyes

And the 1930s dust bowl hot years never happened because there is hardly anyone alive who can remember that period and as we all know the only time frame that counts for alarmists is living memory.

MarkW

I remember one not so young alarmist I debated a number of years back.
When asked what the ideal climate for the planet was, he replied that it was the climate that he remember as a child.

Irony, it’s not just for laundry.

Alan Ranger

But don’t ignore the fact that there were 50 CMIP5 models used – all the same, but different. I can only guess that they all agreed (by consensus) on the usual 2+2=5 result … with an impressive precision of ±0.02 of course.

Grasping at straws.

Latitude

You gotta love it……global warming that has had no effect on temps in the past ~20 years……screwed up the jet stream
Must be all those windmills

You are using logic. Thats not fair to Mann and Rahmstorf. They just believe the CMIP5 serm despite it having been proven wrong three ways.

Luther Bl't

It’s worse than we thought.

Not only has the missing heat gone into the Rossby waves, as you imply, but it has caused the Moon to orbit further from the Earth than in the epoch of unicorns, fluffy bunnies, and inundations of milk and honey that caused the topographical changes observable everywhere today.

phaedo

Grasping at grant money.

Tom Judd

I wish they were just grasping at straws. They’re grasping at me someplace else and I don’t like it.

drednicolson

Your wallet.

Gunga Din

Grasping at straws to repair the rails that keep the gravy train on track?

Barbara

Global Change Musings Blogspot, Australia

Older posts > Feb.10, 2017, second page in.

‘Climate change and activism: time for protests to rival those against the Vietnam war’ by Colin D. Butler

Scroll down to: Jetstream Deforming

Colin D. Buttler

Prof. University of Canberra
Australian IPCC contributor
Co-founder of ‘Health – Earth’, University of Canberra

https://globalchangemusings.blogspot.ca

Barbara

Re: Northern Gateway Project, Canada

‘Open Letter on the Joint Review Panel regarding the Northern Gateway Project’, May 26, 2014

Signatures include:

Michael E. Mann, Penn State University
Trevor Hancock, University of Victoria & “Health-Earth”, Australia

And many other signatures.

http://awsassets.wwf.ca/downloads/jrp_letter_to_federal_govt_may28_all_signatures.pdf

Barbara

‘Sustainable Development: A Canadian Perspective’ c.2002, 129 pages.

5.3, Toxic Substances

P.49, Section by: Dr.Trevor Hancock, Chairman, Canadian Association of Physicians for the Environment/CAPE.

PDF download at:
http://publications.gc.ca/site/archivee-archived.html?url=http://publications.gc.ca/Collection/En40-668-2002E.pdf

Barbara

UN/United Nations
Sustainable Development Knowledge Platform
National Assessment Report for WSSD, 8 Jun 2011
Health & Environment
Toxic Substances: pages 48-51

Trevor Hancock

At:
https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/index.php?page=view&nr=166&type=504&menu=139

Butch

“On the is an image of the global circulation pattern on a normal day. On the right is the image of the global circulation pattern when extreme weather occurs ” ???

I wonder Mickey Mouse Mann realizes he LEFT something out from the caption below the first graph ?? D’OH !

Bryan A

He didn’t want to be viewed as a “Left”ist so he Left it out

Bryan A

See LEFT is good…RIGHT is bad
Subliminal indoctrination

Neil

Interestingly, most of the effect occured in the past four decades. “The more frequent persistent and meandering Jetstream states seems to be a relatively recent phenomenon, which makes it even more relevant,” says co-author Dim Coumou from the Department of Water and Climate Risk at VU University in Amsterdam (Netherlands).

So let me get this straight: The jetstream, which has been most documented since WW2 (I am aware of the earlier histories, but it was the 1940s it was most extensively studied, so let’s use that start date) – ie. 77 years – has been wavering around more in the last 40 years.

That is to say: for the vast bulk of the time we’ve been aware of the thing, it’s been moving around, but this is new and proof of climate change.

I’m shock and stunned at this revelation.

We have only been able to measure the jet stream at the level of detail required since satellites appeared about 40 years ago, so the inference is that extreme weather events prior to that were natural and recent ones are not. For example, the multi-century droughts California experienced between about 850 AD and 1400 AD were natural, but the recent 4 year drought was not.

Attempting to reconstruct the jet stream from sparse surface temperature measurements will never reveal the fine structure that Mann seems so concerned about. Perhaps they throw a few NAN’s into the simulation to get the results they are looking for.

Leopoldo

it was a great phrase.

Similarly the numerous extreme heat events, drought events, wind events and cold events we can trace in the British climate over the last thousand years must have been natural but the 2003 heat event was obviously caused by man, even though it doesn’t seem any different to previous ones…

Tonyb

LOL, the first sentence of the Introduction of the paper refers to “the unprecedented, ongoing drought in California”:

“A series of persistent, extreme summer weather events in recent years including the 2003 European Heat Wave, the 2010 Pakistan flood/Russian heatwave, 2011 Texas drought and the unprecedented, ongoing drought in California, has led to a continuing discussion in the scientific literature regarding the relationship between anthropogenic climate change and the spate of recent weather extremes”

HT Tom Nelson for noticing that.

Nick Werner

Excellent observation. Peer review in climate science has become so painstakingly thorough that by the time it’s completed, even the first sentence is wrong.

Weather events are not climate except when it’s the other way ’round.

Hugs

Weather in climate paper is pretty much non sequitur, but this is pure bovine excrement

unprecedented, ongoing drought in California,

It is not unprecedented, nor ongoing, and such a published anecdote confirms that top notch sciency publication series have downgraded into cheap political games. This is hopeless.

Cherry picking weather events now and not computer model inputs to “substantiate” their theories. I suppose we should applaud their ingenuity and perseverance, even if their science is still on a par with that of medieval alchemists!

Jon

On a par with medieval alchemists? Please! These scientists have actually managed to transmute something worthless into gold!

Sandyb

“high-quality temperature measurements are available since the 1870s, so we use this to reconstruct the changes over time,” WHAT, PROVE IT. Show me a couple of accurate thermometers from the 1870s and who used them and where. Hogwash.

Their incessant need to “adjust” historical temperatures, even well into the 20th century, makes you wonder how they know anything about temperature! Clearly the people from the first half of the 20th century (and all of the 19th century) did not know how to take temperatures – otherwise why would their raw data need to be adjusted?

AndyG55

““high-quality temperature measurements are available since the 1870s”

I wonder why BOM in Australia reject anything before 1910, then. 😉

True, so please could we have our portion of this Klimategeld!

Menicholas

I was wondering if they used raw or “adjusted” data?

pameladragon

That is a terrible thing to say about medieval alchemists! At least they were sincere in their attempts to figure out the mysteries of the world. Mann is more akin to a tantruming 2-year old!

PMK

Steve Case

Word search on the above article turns up “extreme” 19 times

If you go to NOAA’s Climate at a glance,
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/
you will find that a comparison of Maximum and Minimum temperatures shows that summers are getting cooler and winters are getting warmer. In other words the climate in the United States at least is getting milder. Pretty soon the Michael Manns of this world will have to scare us with claims about “Extreme Mildness”

Truman ross

If it wasn’t so funny, it would be serious——-climate change has ALWAYS,ALWAYS, ALWAYS been happening!!!!!!

I see a correlation between extreme weather and extreme sports.

Know what?
I’m bored with ‘extreme’ weather.
So 20th century.
I want ‘ultimate’ weather.

drednicolson

“No no, ultimate weather is too calm.”
“Ultimate weather too calm?!”
“Yes, we’re gonna have to go right to… LUDICROUS WEATHER”

Pop Piasa

I see your ludicrous weather and raise you two MANIACAL weathers!

Pop Piasa

“I will gladly pay you Tuesday, for a hurricane today…”

Leopoldo

extreme mildness is a good phrase

Jer0me

As is “sextreme meanders”, my favourite!

Currently weathering Cyclone Debbie, already blamed on Climate Change ™…

Pop Piasa

Batten down the windmills, mates!

Pop Piasa

Hey Jer0me, since a cyclone rotates reversed in the SH, does the wind blow out towards the sea?
/sarc

Jer0me

Pop, yes half of it does blow out to sea 🙂

eck

Unprecedented??? Geesh! Lost me there. No sense reading further.

PiperPaul

Journalists and idiots DO love that word. It’s dramatic.

drednicolson

Unprecedented usage of the word, even.

Hugs

Unprecedented is not sustainable.

To plagiarize and spoof-
“Unprecedented!”
“You keep saying this word. I do not think it means what you think it means.”

Bryan A

sounds like what the World Governence aspet of climate control is tyring to do to the USA,
Make us Un-Presidented

inconceivable

Bryan A

that and Un-concieveable

Griff

Exactly the jet stream effect described has been behind a number of the UK winter storm/flooding events which have occurred nearly annually since 2000 (and did not in the 20th century occur with same frequency or intensity)

Phoenisx44

Nearly annually since 2000? Which UK are you living in exactly? We’ve had 15 or 16 winter storm/flooding events? Bizarre nonsense.

John Harmsworth

Anthony- Perhaps you would consider archiving this linked paper as it is a nice counter to the persistent nonsense of our climate getting “worse and worse”. An associated link to Warren Buffet’s comments that their insurance business is not seeing higher costs due to climate change might “seal the deal” in the minds of many agnostics.

Griff, the IPCC projected that it would be WARMER and less snow over time. Dr. Viner said 17 years ago that snowfall would be a thing of the past,,,,,

” However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.

“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.”

March 20,2000

Your claim has been utterly destroyed. England, at least two different years was 100% covered in snow,other years large areas covered.

All of Britain covered by snow

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/08/all-of-england-covered-by-snow/

Go away and check out the 1870s, 1910s, and 1920s

Griff, do your homework next time before you make silly unsupported claims. Here is a long list of Natural disasters back to 535 ad ,weather wise:

List of natural disasters in Great Britain and Ireland

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_disasters_in_Great_Britain_and_Ireland

leafwalker

Griff brings to mind a kid poking an anthill to watch the ants scurry around. Then he leaves.

I don’t mind Griff – I find his critics comments to be very informative!

BCBill

I wish more people like Griff participated. As leafwalker says, his postings bring out a lot of good responses. I certainly wouldn’t want to be like the passengers on the gravy train who are desperate to shut down any discussion. Go Griff.

Sun Spot

Yes, Griff-ter is a very useful tool, he invokes the “reverse-Giff-Streisand Effect”, ie. he publishes stupidity that amplifies the knowledge of Giff’s ignorance.

Gary Pearse

You’ve just discovered the ‘Pause’ Griff. Been there done that.

Philio

The one time I was privileged to visit the UK was May, 1982. Everyone, including the friends I was visiting, said ” the weather is much nicer than last year”. Mid to high 70’s(that’s 25degC for metric folks), moderate to light breezes, sunny to partly cloudy skies, no rain for a week.

Weather changes aren’t all bad for the climate. The climate catastrophe’s hadn’t hit the papers then so the weather had a chance to be nice.

Gerald Machnee

RE Phoenisx44
What Griff meant to say was “nearly annually since 1000”. we will forgive Griff for the typo.

AJB

Has Griff been helping out with the rewrite of Michael Fish’s memoirs?

Mark from the Midwest

I have a model that shows that you are all about to buy a 5 acre parcel in Florida, sight unseen, from me, at a fabulous introductory price of just $42,500 each. Send the money to this numbered Swiss bank account:
ZT14978XMT328, and when receipt is verified I will send the deed to you by FedEx.

Because models are so scientifically valid you will do as I say

Shouldn’t that be an unprecedented introductory price? Just sayin

HAR

Well, it is clear that the great hoaxter Mann is trying another one on. He has to so as to try and distract attention from Thomas Karl’s attempt at weather fraud. Absolutely, positively cannot let facts disturb the narrative!

Myron Mesecke

Why are these so called climate experts so inept at looking backwards?
They seem incapable and/or unwilling of studying weather events from long ago.
More violent tornadoes in the cooler ’50s, ’60s and ’70s. Plenty of hurricanes.
Cold winters, hot summers, droughts, floods and east coast tropical storms in the cooler 1950s.

Somehow, if they acknowledge this at all they will declare it ‘normal’ but a less severe version of it today can only be a manifestation of man’s CO2 output.

Makes me want to do a Clockwork Orange on them and force them to watch reports on the weather from these cooler decades.

Bruce Ploetz

Pinterest doesn’t let you use their pics.Another example: http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m6kgbxRcXl1qcq2h3.jpg But their eyes are wide shut, there are none so blind as those who will not see.

Tom Halla

I disbelieve that there is any real pattern of extreme weather, so claiming a cause for something that does not really exist is an excercise for philosophy students. The California and Texas droughts were not any way unprecedented, and fit historical weather patterns.

http://www.mercurynews.com/2014/01/25/california-drought-past-dry-periods-have-lasted-more-than-200-years-scientists-say/

And the mercury news is so biased to the left, I terminated my subscription many years ago. Note the lip service to CO2 at the end of the article. BTW, the recent drought came to an end about 9 months after this article was published.

Gentle Tramp

Well, even if there should be some changes of the Rossby Waves behaviour in the last decades, this could also be caused by a cooling ozone layer thanks to the weakening sun and its reduced UV intensity.

BTW: Just today there was very interesting press release in Switzerland about the probable effects of the next great solar minimum:

http://www.snf.ch/en/researchinFocus/newsroom/Pages/news-170327-press-release-suns-impact-on-climate-change-quantified-for-first-time.aspx

So now we know what Mann will say in his Congressional testimony March 29, 2017.

Brook HURD

Mann and his crew seem to have redefined “unprecedented” to mean that something has not occured during the previous decade. California has had cyclical droughts throughout recorded history. Neither the recent drought, nor the atmospheric river which ended it are in any way unusual.

Mark from the Midwest

To them “unprecedented” is anything they are unaware of, and since they lack any natural curiosity they are pretty much unaware of everything

Gunga Din

To them “unprecedented” is anything they didn’t see in a tree ring. And we know what didn’t show up in a tree ring.

Mann and his crew seem to have redefined “unprecedented”

If nothing else – and after eight+ years of lurking and occasional posting, I’m becoming increasingly convinced that there may well be nothing else – one must give Mann and his like-minded (for want of a better word) cohorts credit for consistent high marks in the “redefinition” department.

As I had noted back in 2012:

we have had to learn to, well, acclimatize ourselves to “climate scientists” who give themselves licence to redefine commonly understood words in the English language; words such as “trick“, “decline”, “fudge” – and even “experiments”

One would have thought that those who had achieved such lofty academic heights as Mann and his ilk would know enough of the world they share with the rest of us and would be smart enough to figure out that they had absolutely no right to don the halo of a Nobel (Peace) Prize – as far too many of them indisputably did.

But, alas, they clearly lack such skills and/or perspicacity. Considering that they have proven themselves to be so very wrong on the small stuff, why on Gaia’s green earth should they ever be trusted on the big stuff, eh?!

Don’t you first have to start with proof that the events described are actually unprecedented or at least significantly off of recorded weather norms? If not, what you are proving is that CO2 causes normal weather.

Pat McAdoo

Good point, Don.

Curry and Pielke now have time to phrase their refute.

Pielke, Jr left the mainstream climate blogs as I recall because he kept showing that “extreme” weather events had no correlation with any of the models nor the recorded data. So the warmistas made him miserable. Seems his father also left the blogs for the same reason. Then there’s Curry……

Besides, what is the definition of “extreme” or “unprecedented”?

A C Osborn

“Unprecedented – never done or known before:
In other words a total failure of science in their opening remarks.

And then there’s Attrubution Science of course.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2929159

RWturner

“The researchers looked at real-world observations and confirmed that this temperature pattern does correspond with the double-peaked jet stream and waveguide patter associated with persistent extreme weather events in the late spring and summer such as droughts, floods and heat waves. They found the pattern has become more prominent in both observations and climate model simulations.”

The latest global weather patterns are always confirming their hypotheses. And that’s easy to do, when your “science” involves giving “real-world observations” (opposed to fake-world) a looksy and simply saying, that’s exactly what we’d expect due to increased CO2.

And here is their analysis of the “observations”. A cherry picked trend-line starting in 1970 is the basis for their entire conclusion.

http://www.nature.com/articles/srep45242/figures/5

And here is their model source code.

http://www.publicdomainpictures.net/pictures/10000/nahled/bone-tower-67812771829030i7E.jpg

rocketscientist

OMG!!!
You do realize what that alignment of bones indicates: Even more use of… unprecedented!

Bryan A

Thems must be the bones of the Bramble Cay melomys that have gone extinct. Perhaps they were the best source of entrails for climate model predictiveness.

I am not schooled in chicken-bone code. I feel soooooooo inferior.

Menicholas

Where are the entrails?
Cannot make a good climate prediction without them entrails.

Bryan A

They lost their predictive ability because the Bramble Cay Melomy entrails worked the best.

Phil R

Menicholas,

Apparently, you can! 🙂

osteomancy, osteomanty:
divination by the examination of bones.

http://www.thefreedictionary.com/osteomancy

Menicholas

Phhtt!
Gave me a competent haruspex anyday!

Looks like a zonal pattern to me!

DHR

And then there is the Palmer index for the lower 48. Not much to see there, except for the exceptionally dry years in the 30’s and early 50’s.
comment image

John Harmsworth

Yeah, but that wasn’t climate change. Climate change came later, disguised as normal weather.

Harry Passfield

We came as close as one can to demonstrating a direct link between climate change and a large family of extreme recent weather events

Dr Mann: A miss is as good as a mile. I once came as close to winning the lottery jackpot as one can get – without actually winning it. Hey, I stayed a poor man by just getting close; you managed to become rich as Croesus just by getting somewhere in the ballpark.

Bryan A

actually you were made slightly poorer due to the fact that you had to spend some of your hard earned income on that Close Lottery Ticket

I remain doubtful that adding more models of the usual fashionable quality will lead to any accuracy in attribution of weather changes, but it surely must increase the smell of decay in the halls of academia.

Moderately Cross of East Anglia

Sorry, did the release describe Mann as “distinguished” or “extinguished “? I can’t quite remember and can’t summon up the enthusiasm to read this panic mongering nonsense again.

Menicholas

At Penn State, “distinguished” apparently means “has not been convicted of any felonies recently”.

John Harmsworth

How about disingenuous? Discredited? Disgusting?

Pop Piasa

How is CO2 supposed to overpower the oceanic cycles when it comes to atmospheric circulation? Does Mann still believe that the troposphere is giving heat and CO2 to the oceans, when common sense should show the reverse is actually the case? How does CO2 change the pressures off the NW coast of Australia that control the tradewinds as the SSTs in the Indian Ocean rise and fall?

He appears to ignore everything but the stuff that backs his claims.

pochas94

So they looked really, really hard and found a correlation.

Hugs

(p > 0.45)

The amazing thing is this.

Real atmospheric scientists ( Manabe and Wetherald, 1979 ) identified reduced thermal wind decades ago. Their conclusion?

“The reduction of meridional temperature gradient appears to reduce not only the eddy kinetic energy, but also the variance of temperature in the lower model troposphere. “

Got that?

Global warming reduces both extreme weather and extreme temperatures!

Sommer

Meanwhile, CBC in Canada is broadcasting this information today and in so doing backing up our Minister of Environment, Catherine MacKenna, as she insists that carbon taxes will reduce these “extreme man made weather events”.
The gullible, uninformed are feeling guilty and frightened into submission.

TomRude

@ sommer do you have a link to the CBC story? Thanks

Brett Keane

@ Turbulent Eddie March 27, 2017 at 9:14 am: However, it is cooling that has started, and this is behind the meridional vigour. A new phase thanks to the quiet sun and ocean currents. Which we can nowadays observe, and that is unprecedented….

Gerald Machnee

Re TomRude
It was on the CBC News network (bell 502) with Johanna Wagstaffe commenting. She likes that sort of stuff.

TomRude

Thank you Gerald

TomRude

“We came as close as one can to demonstrating a direct link between climate change and a large family of extreme recent weather events,” said Michael Mann, distinguished professor of atmospheric science and director, Earth System Science Center, Penn State. “Short of actually identifying the events in the climate models.”

Sadly for Mann, identifying the events would be the only proof that his theory may be valid.
As for Coumou’s video, it is straw man after straw man in the first 30 seconds: this guy has no clue about meteorology.

Richard III

Wasn’t it about 40 years ago (the 1970s) that we began extracting energy from the sunshine and the wind because of the “energy crisis”? Perhaps, we are altering weather patterns (that run on energy) with our efforts and creating the worsening conditions. After all, correlation is causation, right?

John Harmsworth

Maybe we provoked the wind gods! Or maybe CO2 bothers their noses. Michael Mann is looking into it.

Clearly we need to extract the exact right amount of energy at varying temperatures so we do not disturb the “normal” temperature variants! But which “normal” temperature variants is Mickey Mann talking about ?? The ones for the past decade? Or the past century? Or the past 1,000 years? Or since the last Ice Age???

Les Segal

once this whole CAGW debacle is debunked (given that it’s adherents have a cult like attachment that’s emotionally based rather than fact driven, this will take some time yet), people like James Hansen and Michael Mann need to be put on trial for this massive scare and the ensuing billions of dollars in wasted spending.

Rainer Bensch

once this whole CAGW debacle is debunked
They never will let this happen. They will perpetually come up with new and improved nonsense to keep us busy.

Which came first: cause or effect?

Ron Williams

The egg…

The other thing is this:

Have these models given up on the Hot Spot?

If the Hot Spot actually occured, it would increase the jet stream level thermal gradient, but of course, the Hot Spot hasn’t panned out for the satellite era:
http://climatewatcher.webs.com/HotSpotGradient.png

Also, Hansen has been arguing for an increased thermal wind.
Which is it?

For the cause, it doesn’t seem to matter, as long as some one’s peeing their pants.

pochas94

The “hot spot” is impossible. The temperature of the atmosphere is determined at the level where the hot spot is supposed to occur (the equivalent emissions height). All temperatures at other levels are simply related to the temperature (the planck temperature) at that height. The settled science is wrong because it is based on a faux radiation balance at the surface based on false assumptions which ignore relevant atmospheric physics.

Brett Keane

Bravo!

Clyde Spencer

From Global Business Times:

“Global warming is driving this trend in two ways, the authors say. The first is because the planetary waves depend on the temperature difference between the cold Arctic and the warm equator. This difference is DECREASING with climate change, leading to slower-moving waves.”

“Second, the difference between land and sea is getting LARGER with climate change, as the oceans absorb and circulate heat much better than the land. This also makes the planetary waves slower and larger.”

Which is it? Is the difference between Arctic land and the oceans increasing or decreasing? Or does it depend on the day of the week?

Leopoldo

they are deciding if it is one or the other. Sometimes is increasing and sometimes decreasing. It depends on the week we are. This is why they have so difficult task to guess it right.

Menicholas

I do not think they have so much difficulty…since they start with the conclusion and discard any results or data which do not fit in with the hypothesis du jour.

John Harmsworth

It depends on which non-existent problem they are pitching. Once again, you have to remember that CO2 is a magic molecule!

Michael Jankowski

“We came as close as one can to demonstrating a direct link between climate change and a large family of extreme recent weather events”

So you failed, but you are going to act like you were successful.

Bruce Cobb

Yeah but he only missed it by that much.

Pop Piasa

He should work harder, like this fellow…

AndyG55

Pop Piasa

Don Adams’ shoe was the first smell phone.

Pop Piasa

Adams’ most climatic role was as the voice of “Tennessee Tuxedo”.

Resourceguy

Well, someone had to buttress extreme weather scare tactics. Who better to tap than Mann with models du jour to keep the science link alive in the arguments. Not right or good science mind you; that would be a whole different level of argument and science.

troe

The usual suspects plodding along in the same old computer modeling groove. We can now tell this and that because we heaped on more models. Interestingly we have had the hard claims for years but now we have the supposed proof. Political activists playing at science. Worse than useless.

Of course it is all nonsense.
There are three cyclical variables ‘operating’ in the N. Atlantic: sea surface temperature (SST- AMO), the Arctic atmospheric pressure oscillation and the far N. Atlantic tectonic activity.
All three variables were at minimum at beginning of 20th century, but being of different periodicities, one hundred years later at the beginning of 21st century, the variables moved out of phase, as graphically demonstrated in this LINK

chze

during the LIA, the climate and weather variability was higher than over the last decades and the arctic was very cold. More extreme weather events occurred over the NH, extremely cold months and years followed by dry and hot events. M. Mann never recognised this facts!

AHA! We have finally found that 97% climate consensus! It is about the models, not the scientists.

John Harmsworth

I don’t think the models achieve 9.7% agreement! Unless of course they get the Michael Mann “special math” treatment.

botosenior

during the LIA the climate variability was much higher, more extreme events occurred and the arctic was very cold. M. Mann is an so called denier, denier off scientific understanding!

pochas94

Yes it was. One year near normal, the next cold as the seventh circle. We can expect the same in the future. Why? because the polar vortex becomes unstable in periods of low solar activity. One year the vortex goes south over Europe, the next it hits the US. Once it starts going, it all goes. And the warm air that replaces it makes it seem like the arctic is warming rapidly, feeding the “Global Warming” hysteria.

“We don’t trust climate models yet to predict specific episodes of extreme weather because the models are too coarse,” said study co-author Dim Coumou of PIK. “However, the models do faithfully reproduce large scale patterns of temperature change,” added co-author Kai Kornhuber of PIK.

(bold is mine)

“Faithfully”?? Not “consistently” or “predictably” but “Faithfully”.
Truly the anointed holy and pious and righteous models have spoken
Divert your gaze!!.
Amen (genuflects, crosses self)

Jeremy

When the Oracle (aka model) speaks, Mann must listen. When 50 Oracles speak, man must listen.

Moderately Cross of East Anglia

Mark from the Midwest, your Swiss bank account number keeps coming up under the name Mann, is this significant or is it just a model?

michael hart

It’s Manndacious.

Bryan A

Climate Science needs a Mannectomy

Bryan A

Or just a Mannema

At least his earlier efforts had at least one tree as a data point.

John Harmsworth

A piece of one tree! And it was the wrong tree! In the wrong place!

Peta from Cumbria, now Newark

and if I stare into a sack of coffee beans long enough, I’ll see what………
Anything I want to see, that’s what.

It might be referred to as ‘Confirmation Bias’ or ‘Snouts in the Trough’ or ‘Fame & Fortune Seeking’ or….

I say it is Magical Thinking, as practised by depressed brains, stuck on an addiction to a depressant substance. Sugar.

In the huuuuuuuuuuge biiiiiiiiiiig picture, is it not of ‘some concern’ that these are supposedly highly educated people with the ears of our (equally depressed and magically thinking) leaders.

We worry about future energy supplies, wind, solar, thorium, fusion and are quite convinced that the technological equivalent of sucking blood out of a stone (fracking) is some sort of sustainable future.

With brain-deads like these in charge, we ain’t gonna get there.
These turkeys are not only going to Vote For Christmas, they’re gonna light the stove and get dressed for the occasion.

BallBounces

“We came as close as one can to demonstrating a direct link between climate change and a large family of extreme recent weather events”

Which is, of course, what they set out to do. Confirmation-driven science™.

Reblogged this on WeatherAction News and commented:
Oh no! Not blocking highs causing extremes of weather…they never changed before..It must be…comment image

Leopoldo

we can make some exorcism to stop those calamities. I saw in a video a scene in which a glacier in Switzerland was menacing to crash a small hamlet and coming near. The peasants asked the monks to make an exorcism, assuming the glacier was possessed by a demon. We can exorcise the CO2 to cast away the demons it contain and sleep in peace.

Art

“Warming caused by greenhouse-gases from fossil fuels creates favorable conditions for such events, an international team of scientists now finds.”
——
But the same warming caused by natural cycles doesn’t?

And greenhouse gasses from ocean outgassing don’t do it either, only from fossil fuels?

And the evidence that the warming comes from greenhouse gasses is??????

“Does rapid Arctic warming have tangible implications
for weather in lower latitudes? The jury is still out.
While there is a growing consensus in the model-based
literature that that Arctic warming can, in isolation,
significantly influence the midlatitude circulation, this
neither implies that it has in the past, nor that it will in
the future. This is because internal atmospheric variability
may obscure the influence of Arctic warming
and/or the Arctic influence may be small compared
with other factors that control midlatitude weather.

“We suggest that it useful to frame inquiries using the
‘Can it?’, ‘Has it?’, and ‘Will it?’ approach. The ‘Can
it?’ and ‘Will it?’ questions are potentially tractable as
we continue to improve our mechanistic understanding
of the high-to-mid- latitude connections, and as
our models improve in their ability to simulate the
related dynamics.

“However, the ‘Has it?’ is likely to
continue to be more challenging to answer given the
short observational record and large internal variability
of the midlatitude atmosphere.”

http://barnes.atmos.colostate.edu/FILES/MANUSCRIPTS/Barnes_Screen_2015_WIREsCC.pdf

Mark - Helsinki

Mann? Atmospheric science? wut?

Mann is no atmospheric scientist