We’ve already had two big events like this so far this year, now forecasts show a clear pattern of a heavily moisture laden “atmospheric river” taking aim directly onto the Oroville Dam watershed over the next week. Accumulated precipitation forecasts show that the Lake Orovile watershed will score a direct hit with the maximum amount of precipitation over the next 10 days (see graphic near bottom of this article).
Above: Computer forecast models indicate a powerful jet stream will continuously pound California over the next ten days and bring copious amounts of moisture from off of the Pacific Ocean into the state. This 10-day loop of predicted upper-level winds at 250 mb are in 6-hour increments from today until Thursday, February 23rd; maps courtesy tropicaltidbits.com, NOAA/EMC (GFS)
Meteorologist Paul Dorian of Vencore Weather writes:
There have been many occasions in the past in which floods have followed droughts in California and this recent time period is yet another example. In California, incredible amounts of rain have piled up in recent weeks across low-lying areas of the state, mountains of snow have accumulated in the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada Mountains – and more is on the way. After a couple days with a break in the action, another storm is likely to arrive in northern California by later Wednesday and continue into Thursday and then a second storm looks like it will slam the entire state by early this weekend.
After a lengthy drought, California has been battered by potentially record-setting rain, with the Northern California region getting 228 per cent more than its normal rainfall for this time of year. The average annual rainfall of about 50 inches had already been overtaken with 68 inches in 2017 alone and another 6+ inches is possible over the next week-to-ten days. The latest computer model forecast of upper-level winds for the next ten days (Monday, 2/13 to Thursday, 2/23) does not hold out much hope for any significant drying in California. Powerful winds in the upper atmosphere (at 250 mb) will continuously pound California and bring copious amounts of moisture from the Pacific Ocean into the state. The total precipitation forecast map by NOAA for the next 7 days indicates more significant rainfall (and snowfall) is likely throughout the state.
The long-term forecast has rainfall totals withing the watershed that are showing the exact spot where Lake Oroville watershed is located will get 11.62 inches of rain over the next 10 days, the most accumulated rainfall in the entire western USA:
Map courtesy of WeatherBell
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Why does no one listen to historians when it comes to climate? Possibly they are so convinced that man made climate change exists that they cannot conceive of the idea that the normal pattern is complex and very much longer term than climate science seems to admit. historians have pointed out the patterns decades ago and unlike climate scientists have been pretty close to bulls eye.
I am certainly not a structural engineer nor expert; however, it seems to me filling a gaping hole the size of a football with gravel is not going to stop the dam from giving way after 10 days of rain plus whatever comes down from the mountains. Me? I would have kept my family on self evac until the storm fronts (3) pass.
Damn!
Assuming the emergency spillway underwent a civil engineering design process, it would be nice to see a cross section of the emergency spillway.
What, you think any part of this massive project wasn’t taken seriously.
You think nobody thought about what might happen if the turbines failed during a 100 year flood, and then the main spillway gates couldn’t/wouldn’t release full capacity.
You just saw the result.
Now it is just a matter of passing water by the dam, the only option is to let the water thru, by any means possible.
As long as the emergency spillway doesn’t get undermined, it’ll just be a flood downstream.
What with all the leakage thru the seep holes in the upper reaches of the main spillway, it is probably being undermined also.
Rebuild/engineer all the spillways.
It’s frustrating how difficult it is to find up to date, current pics or video of the work being done.
I’ve been really anxious to see the work and yet very little is available.
Premiere hope for ‘drying in California’:
The average annual rainfall of about 50 inches had already been overtaken with 68 inches in 2017 alone and another 6+ inches is possible over the next week-to-ten days. The latest computer model forecast of upper-level winds for the next ten days (Monday, 2/13 to Thursday, 2/23) does not hold out much hope for any significant drying in California.
_____________________________________________
As always it’s the mayor’s decision – where it’s save to build and where’s ever forbidden:
The tools exist-
https://msc.fema.gov/portal/search#searchresultsanchor
Anybody knows what a “keyline plan/design” is? Those who don’t are the symptom of the malaise: Loss of old knowledge and wisdom in the course of industrialisation or the getting-rich-quick folly..
With a system of ponds and swales for water-retention, no landowner needs to fear droughts and floods. The permaculture people and the organic agriculture folks mostly understand that – and are doing well in this respect.
The latest soaker that hosed the Seattle area ended around 0530 2/16/17. On the way to easily the wettest February on record up here. The two CWOP stations near me (10 miles east of SEA) both reported about 1.3 inches in four hours early this morning. For the entire storm (~32 hours), one CWOP location is approximately 2.95″ and the other one is at 2.8.” (Yes, minor compared to Texas, etc, but a lot for us.) I hope the prediction of more snow than rain this week holds up for the Oroville Dam catchment area.
It did. It was cold and mostly snow above 5,500 feet. Not much to get all wet over, as they say. The lake elevation only came up a couple of feet from the 850 target elevation by running the spillway at 60,000 cfs. Is this a validation of the Democrat dam operators after all?
Per:
https://watershed.ucdavis.edu/shed/lund/dams/Oroville/OrovilleDam.html#Cross-Section
Spillway
Type . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . gated flood control outlet and an emergency weir
Crest length . . . . . . . . . 1700 ft
Discharge Capacity . . . . 250,000 cfs
Interesting discussion on this topic here in the comments section:
Zeke: “Getting rid of 250K CFS would be well and wonderful and the gated spillway could handle the entire amount if not damaged. Unfortunately, the Thermalitto Diversion Dam just downstream has a maximum capacity of 157K CFS without massive flooding. So, you won’t see anyone running 250K CFS out of Lake Oroville for very long.”
http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/02/09/oroville-emergency-spillway-may-be-used-for-first-time-in-dams-history/
The LIMITATION would seem to be the facilities just downstream …
Earthquake the flood will solve the california seceding problem
Those atmospheric rivers can sure make a monkey out of you-
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/blogs/andrew-bolt/flannery-washed-out-in-perth/news-story/dce43bec13c5610492502d78c226c50e
particularly if you’re a glassy-eyed professional alarmist by all accounts.
Jeremy Zwinger’s point is beoming more and more apropos. California’s flood control system from Merced County north is almost at capacity. A warm rain over a significant portion of the central and northern Sierra Nevada could start popping a lot of levees just from early snow melt.
The Shasta Reservoir is almost at capacity, and it’s been using a lot less of its spillway capacity than it normally would to ease the burden downstream. It only recently increased its flow to 79,000 cubic feet per second. But a warm rain on the snow pack in its watershed area (which might be this Sunday) could easily raise the reservoir’s level so fast that the operators would open it to full honk to avert overtopping. And that means 200,000+ cubic feet per second. That alone would be big trouble downstream.
The flood control system operators have done an amazing job of juggling competing demands so far. We many be on the verge of them deciding what parts of the system fail, and in what order, to save the rest.
If I were a damn engineer, I’d be keeping my mouth shut right about now, and trying to learn things.
Come on, Rain! It’s going to be a fantastic summer for panning gold.
I have had a good look at some photos. To my geologist’s eye the emergency spill structure was certainly abutted against base-rock. But, the degree of channel erosion shows that is highly weathered and weak. Given the short life of the dam in geological terms it is apparent that this natural-surfaced spillway was never functional, even from day one. The designers screwed up (IMO). According to what I have researched, it had never been tested or used before this latest event. Big mistake.
And the ideas are embedded already in western societies :
https://www.google.at/search?q=unsafe+at+any+speed&oq=unsafe+at+any+speed&aqs=chrome.
I had to leave a comment after reading all of the absolutely ignorant comments on here. Most of you know absolutely nothing about the Oroville Dam and most of you have obviously not observed it for decades. If you don’t know what you are talking about just shut the hell up. I am also sick of hearing the same repeated line about the emergency spillway never being used before. The fact of the matter is that water did go over the emergency spillway a couple of decades ago. It took out part of the road and driftwood was on top of the berm and in the field below it for a long time afterwards.
Assume this is a teaching moment, and cut back on the snark.
We’ll all be the better for it.
But, that’s not what you are here for, is it ?
Much is said about Oroville. Not much mentioned about Shasta and Folsom.. both are releasing water as well. What is the projected impact of Folsom, Shasta and Oroville all releasing water on the downstream infrastructure?
Simulation Shows Oroville Dam Spillway Failure
See Ward’s model of Partial Failure – “3D” – of the Oroville Emergency Spillway