We’ve already had two big events like this so far this year, now forecasts show a clear pattern of a heavily moisture laden “atmospheric river” taking aim directly onto the Oroville Dam watershed over the next week. Accumulated precipitation forecasts show that the Lake Orovile watershed will score a direct hit with the maximum amount of precipitation over the next 10 days (see graphic near bottom of this article).
Above: Computer forecast models indicate a powerful jet stream will continuously pound California over the next ten days and bring copious amounts of moisture from off of the Pacific Ocean into the state. This 10-day loop of predicted upper-level winds at 250 mb are in 6-hour increments from today until Thursday, February 23rd; maps courtesy tropicaltidbits.com, NOAA/EMC (GFS)
Meteorologist Paul Dorian of Vencore Weather writes:
There have been many occasions in the past in which floods have followed droughts in California and this recent time period is yet another example. In California, incredible amounts of rain have piled up in recent weeks across low-lying areas of the state, mountains of snow have accumulated in the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada Mountains – and more is on the way. After a couple days with a break in the action, another storm is likely to arrive in northern California by later Wednesday and continue into Thursday and then a second storm looks like it will slam the entire state by early this weekend.
After a lengthy drought, California has been battered by potentially record-setting rain, with the Northern California region getting 228 per cent more than its normal rainfall for this time of year. The average annual rainfall of about 50 inches had already been overtaken with 68 inches in 2017 alone and another 6+ inches is possible over the next week-to-ten days. The latest computer model forecast of upper-level winds for the next ten days (Monday, 2/13 to Thursday, 2/23) does not hold out much hope for any significant drying in California. Powerful winds in the upper atmosphere (at 250 mb) will continuously pound California and bring copious amounts of moisture from the Pacific Ocean into the state. The total precipitation forecast map by NOAA for the next 7 days indicates more significant rainfall (and snowfall) is likely throughout the state.
The long-term forecast has rainfall totals withing the watershed that are showing the exact spot where Lake Oroville watershed is located will get 11.62 inches of rain over the next 10 days, the most accumulated rainfall in the entire western USA:
Map courtesy of WeatherBell
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No one is talking about the fact that the structure behind the regular spillway is starting to show signs of damage from the high volume of water being released. If we can nolonger control the amount of water being released, the water coming back up as undercut will also not be controlled. This is my latest concern, internal failure of the original spillway.
Don Adams … your numbers are not accurate …
In the 92 hours since last Sunday afternoon when they upped the outflow rate to 100,000 cfs, officials have dropped the level from 901.65 to 866.75 – a drop of 35 feet. They have released 524,312 acre feet over 92 hours …
Total capacity 3,537,577 minus current level 3,039,414 equals 498,163 current available capacity. That number will increase as they continue outflows.
The avg outflow last 24 hours is appx 6100 ac ft/hour – at 100,000 cfs. Operators have enacted a planned reduction to 85,0000 cfs – due to levels reaching the top of the main spillway intake channel cut – so as not to cause erosion in the intake channel.
Flood control elevation 850
Capacity at 850 2,808,349
Maximum capacity at 900 3,537,577
Reserve at 850 729,228
Current Elevation 866.75
Current capacity 3,039,414
Current reserve 498,163
Estimate in/hr at 85,000 4.17 inch/hour
Est time to 850 at 85,000 48.16 hours
During the major rainfall event in early Jan 2017, I believe appx 15 inches fell in the area. During the appx 18 hour peak inflow period on 1/8 and 1/9 inflow rates averaged appx 135,000 cfs with a peak of appx 155,000 cfs.
Significantly increased inflows (60,000 cfs and higher) ran from the morning of 1/8 thru midday 1/11 … reservoir level was appx 793′ on 1/8 and appx 842 midday 1/11 … an increase of appx 49′ … or appx 676,740 acre feet.
There was no appreciable outflow during this entire 3 day period.
We currently have appx 500,000 acre feet of storage available – and should have more than 700,000 by Saturday.
There is currently enough storage to handle nearly 75% of the inflow from the current storm … and even IF it is as STRONG as the January one … in the next 48 hours there should be enough available storage capacity to handle 100% of the inflow from a 15″ January type super storm … without running the spillway at all.
If you are going to chastise others it helps if your own facts are accurate.
data:
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryF?s=ORO&d=16-Feb-2017+13:39&span=92hours
I’ve been reading the posts on metabunk above. Now I have a better understanding. When they make the weir bench 50 years ago, they removed the overburden and ground down to bedrock, then emplaced the weir.
The bedrock has had 50 years of exposed chemical weathering. It was solid in 1964, no so much now. When the water came over the emergency spillway for the first time, the formerly solid bedrock crumbled away.
Invest in concrete futures. There’s gonna be a big buy this year.
Yep …. but the bedrock below the emergency spillway weir has not been exposed to elements and would not be fractured and weathering. Additionally they added as much as 10 feet of concrete when creating the foundation as well …
All that money wasted on global warming and here is a man made disaster created by the government and mother nature that could have been prevented. They never counted on a wet year because their computer model told them otherwise. Make the global warming scare mongers pay for it.
Thank you all so much for your enlightening comments. Love your sense of humor in this time of unknown and potential catastrophe!
I love raw data that is analyzed. It’s the difference between screaming about global warming or proudly being accused of being a denier.
Best data analysis on the web so far for the dam, the rain, the inflow and outflow.
Enjoy.
https://github.com/axibase/atsd-use-cases/blob/master/OrovilleDam/README.md
Moral of the story the raw data tells?
It’s gonna be close.
One last thought, Shasta Dam is going to fill up with this current storm. This is going to mean an outrageous water flow moving down the Sacramento River system. Redding and communities in Shasta Co better be on their toes tonight.
I can’t believe that the Russians are not involved in this? Surely this is the biggest leak yet.
Nice one. +10
Wow wow wow!!! I have never seen TCW this high before. There is a column of moisture moving right off shore around Mendocino Co that is registering 4.8 kg/m2. Can that be right?. …https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=total_cloud_water/orthographic=-120.40,37.15,1348/loc=-123.936,38.567
Plenty of useful information here:
To make sense of the fast-developing situation at California’s Oroville Dam, Chris spoke today with Scott Cahill, an expert with 40 years of experience on large construction and development projects on hundreds of dams, many of them earthen embankment ones like the dam at Oroville. Scott has authored numerous white papers on dam management, he’s a FEMA trainer for dam safety, and is the current owner of Watershed Services of Ohio which specializes in dam projects across the eastern US. Suffice it to say, he knows his “dam” stuff.
http://www.peakprosperity.com/podcast/107126/expert-what-need-know-about-oroville-dam-crisis
I listened to the whole thing. This guy comes across very credible. Be afraid, be very afraid. LA may not fall into the Pacific from an earthquake, but it may blow away as dust in the wind when the water stops flowing from the north…
I have zero credentials/knowledge/experience when it comes to dams, but I don’t think the dam will exist in March. I hope I’m wrong.
The dam will be fine. The worry is with the emergency spillway which has the capability to release a huge volume of water.
Cross posted on FB group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/192055687521024/1353310821395499/?comment_id=1353641261362455¬if_t=like¬if_id=1487210303116668 (you know you grew up in Oroville, CA). This group has 9k followers.
Attracting lots of attention and sharing. People need to hear more than they’re getting from DWR. Thanks Anthony for your public service. You may be saving lives this time. Keep the info flowing!
The only good dam builders are beavers, having only one dam, and not enough area for overflow and various locks down stream like beavers do, is the problem.
Weather war101 youtube channel…clearly shows how wv(water vapor) generators create storm systems…right now they are sitting off the CA coast just pummeling it….A bulls eye is on that dam.
How will all this rain and soil erosion effect California marijuana production within the Emerald Triangle? I’m concerned this year that my OG Kush will be OG Mush.
Prior to last weeks weather event the forecast for precipitation where I live was 1/2″ to 3/4″. We received 2.68 inches of rain. We are just south of the feather river watershed. If these forecasts are as accurate as last time it could be catastrophic!
California has had a comprehensive water management in place since the Sixties to cope with droughts followed by floods. But business interests (led by rancher-farmers) and Greens both oppose action… thus the status quo that makes the Golden State look like a helpless Third World nation. Libertarians hate government and prefer inaction as well.
Which is why the Us is becoming a Failed State.
They spent the money on ILLEGAL ALIENS
Down stream appears to be a huge worry now. Oroville and other dams are dumping water and cannot stop doing so because they gambled & gave away all of their flood control capacity.
So now, regardless of the flooding downstream they must let it flow or it’ll overflow.
With all of their banter about a permanent parching the last thing they thought they would doing is trying to dump water.
The state of California presumed climate change had progressed into a circumstance that could not produce such a hefty return to abundant water, and then some.
The abundance of 82/83 throughout the west appears to be a strong possibility now.
Lake Powell last filled May 1983, and it was beleived to be at risk of failing
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risks_to_the_Glen_Canyon_Dam
“The dam, anchored in unstable Navajo sandstone (sometimes said to be “solidified sand dunes”),[2] nearly failed in 1983 as the result of a flood on the upper Colorado River. Siltation, degradation of concrete and reinforcements, spillway operational problems, and unstable dam abutments are all key factors that affect the safe operation of the dam.[3] It is estimated that a breach of the dam would produce a floodwave that would overtop the Hoover Dam”
Lake Mead filled to capacity in July 1983.
https://www.nps.gov/lake/learn/nature/overview-of-lake-mead.htm
“Lake Mead has enough capacity to hold the entire average annual flow of the Colorado River for two years. The Lake Mead watershed includes parts of six states: Colorado, Wyoming, New Mexico, Utah, Nevada, and Arizona. Characteristics of the four main inflows to Lake Mead, the Colorado, Virgin, and Muddy Rivers and Las Vegas Wash, and their watersheds are described on the USGS National Water Information System web site (http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis).
The Colorado River watershed above Lake Mead has a total area of 149,316 square miles, but 3,959 square miles in the Great Divide basin in Wyoming and 697 square miles on the Colorado Plateau do not contribute runoff to Lake Mead. Non-contributing areas are found in many western watersheds and are typically closed basins with no streams connecting to downstream discharges. Most of the land in the Colorado River watershed is either rangeland or forest. The availability of water within the Colorado River system depends primarily upon the amount of annual snowmelt and rainfall received on the western slope of the Rocky Mountains in Colorado, which is the source of the Colorado River. A smaller percentage of water comes from tributaries and washes along the river.”
Oroville Dam Flow Requirements are NOT designed for the next ARkStorm (Atmospheric River 1 in 1000 year Storm) or even the last two heavier rains. See ARkStorm.com
Oroville Dam’s flood-control manual hasn’t been updated for half a century SacBee News
The winter of 1964/65 was the biggest West Coast flood since 1861/62. The winter of 1996/97 was also to the large side, but it did not extend to the Canadian border as in the 1960s.
In 1955 there was ten feet of water in Marysville/Yuba City. Only the roofs of houses were above the flood.
That was one of the 4 floods which were spaced 9 years apart, 1937/38, 1946/47, 1955/56, and 1964/65. I have always been interested in this possible cyclic pattern.
I started to involve myself in the AGW debate back in mid 2008. Around 6 months later I saw my first solar ssn graph. In viewing that it took about 5 seconds before the thought popped into my mind that the solar minima were tied in with the PNW flood pattern. That is how my mind works. I was hooked. That stirred my imagination and invigorated me to press forward, and remain in the conversation of AGW, and Earth sciences. I now think that I have fleshed out some important clues about this cyclic pattern. That is what gave me the ability to make my successful prediction in early 2014 that during the winter of 2016/17 it would be highly probable that California and the PNW would experience a flood winter. Bingo.
Now I would say that it is highly probable that the next flood on the West Coast will occur in the winter of 2025/26, as I think conditions have cycled back to where the 8 year spacing will reestablish itself. The exception to that line of thought is that next year has a possibility to be the main event.
I also think I understand part of the reason why the 8 year pattern disappears for a time. Note that there was no flood in 1973/74 which should have been the next iteration of the cycle. The mid 1970s was the shift point to another round of natural global warming, and the floods afterwards occurred closer to 11 years apart and were weaker with the exception of the winter of 1996/97.
Check the decadal ocean oscillations, I think one of the cycles was changing mid 70’s, and this year the AMO is heading negative, leading to this round of tropical water vapor driven weather.
Imo, it is a combination of solar cycle position along with ocean conditions. The ocean conditions are tied in with solar phenomena.
Tied, likely, determined by???
Looking at the emergency spillway, it looks like there is an erosion channel very close to undercutting the end of the spillway nearest the parking lot. Once undercut, the emergency spillway would fail from its unsupported weight and the pressure of water behind it. Given the speed at which this channel appeared, it appears that the emergency spillway was a matter of hours away from failing and cannot be safely used without repairs.
http://bloximages.chicago2.vip.townnews.com/pinalcentral.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/b/60/b6036e3e-73f0-5f44-8f60-da06890499a9/58a2352a6ad00.image.jpg
ferdberple February 16, 2017 at 6:57 am
Looking at the emergency spillway, it looks like there is an erosion channel very close to undercutting the end of the spillway nearest the parking lot. Once undercut, the emergency spillway would fail from its unsupported weight and the pressure of water behind it. Given the speed at which this channel appeared, it appears that the emergency spillway was a matter of hours away from failing and cannot be safely used without repairs.
The emergency spillway is on solid bedrock, even if that part failed the change in flow would be relatively small, it’s doing what it’s supposed to do. However, ideally it should not be used, as it hasn’t since the dam was built.
Based on a prior photograph, that is the shallow (5′) side of the spillway.
How does the state color a large area as abnormally dry…….
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?CA
……when the same area, Southern Sierra, is 202% of average …….
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/snowapp/sweq.action
……and all of the area lakes are full……
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/products/rescond.pdf
…..and most rivers are flowing well beyond median flow…..
https://waterdata.usgs.gov/ca/nwis/current/?type=flow
…..and the soil is saturated…..
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif
Heavy snow+full lakes+full rivers+saturated soil+more rain+ more snow = abnormally dry?
Ok, fine.
another picture showing the problem:
Seeing the pics with the erosion so close to the emergency spillway overflow shows (with hindsight) that the evacuation order was correct. Plus the impression is confirmed that the dam was being flown by the seat of the pants by operators who did not really know which way was up.
What is the current situation with rainfall, inflow into the reservoir, and water level?
I don’t see how you can make that claim. Once the emergency spillway was used and the resulting erosion became evident, the operators ceased using it and made a full dive on the lake elevation reducing it over a few days to a full 51 feet below the emergency spillway. The subsequent storms and inflow to the lake were balanced with releases to maintain the lake at close the 850 foot level. Looks like very good management in the face of unknowns. The storm that came through on the 20th was cold and the inflows were handled as well as anyone could expect. Even in hindsight.
Phew – scary !
Well, it really depends how well the emergency spillway is footed. Stikes me that the “finger” was the river’s natural “emergency spillway” before the dam, and the river has reclaimed it from the fill. If EM is right and they got concrete down to sound rock, the finger will stop at the emergency spillway..
Not to minimize the danger. This is the real deal. Yet the greatest danger is not anything we can see; it is what we can’t see.
DemocRATS spent our tax dollars on illegal aliens instead of repairing the dam.
Your comment indicates you have no idea how this dam was financed, who pays for the maintenance and operations. Try googling State Water Project Contractors and let me know which of them or what percentage of them you believe are Democrats and why you think so. I think it is fair to say there are a lot of Minority President supporters in the list.
Califreekafornia
Breaking news:…The Redding Searchlight has a story this morning stating that FERC has ordered California to immediately draw up plans for a fix at Oroville dam. …http://www.redding.com/story/news/nation/california/2017/02/14/oroville-dam-spillway-repair-investigation/97897364/
Well, duh! Of course they would and of course that discussion is already underway. What I am most interested in finding out is who will pay for it? That is far from a simple answer.