The New Maunder Minimum? Vegetable Shortages Strike London

Farmers' market in a warehouse in Major Draper Street, Woolwich Royal Arsenal, southeast London, UK.

Farmers’ market in a warehouse in Major Draper Street, Woolwich Royal Arsenal, southeast London, UK. By Kleon3 (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

The Sun reports that in London, some supermarkets are rationing purchases of vegetables like lettuce, which is in short supply due to Southern European crop failures.

SALAD SHORTAGE What is the 2017 vegetable shortage, which supermarkets are rationing broccoli and lettuce and what’s the cause of the crisis?

Tesco and Sainsbury’s are rationing iceburg lettuces and broccoli as cold weather in the Med causes a vegetable shortage.

BY ELLIE FLYNN 4th February 2017, 2:29 pm

THESE are dark times times for British vegetable lovers.

A veggie shortage plaguing UK supermarkets has worsened – with Tesco and Sainsbury’s now forced to ration iceburg lettuces and broccoli.

Customers will only be allowed a maximum of three lettuces per visit after poor growing conditions in Europe caused a shortage.

Why is there a vegetable shortage?

Poor growing conditions in Europe – mostly Italy and Spain – has meant there is a lack of vegetable stock.

This comes from a combination of flooding, cold weather and poor light levels.

In winter months Spain’s Murcia region supplies 80 per cent of Europe’s fresh produce.

But the area has suffered its heaviest rainfall in 30 years – meaning 70 per cent of the growing fields are unuseable.

Italy has also suffered a cold snap – meaning the region is having to import vegetables they usually export at this time of year.

The effects of shortages are particularly notable in Britain, which imports an estimated 50 per cent of its vegetables and 90 per cent of its fruit.

Read more: https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2774614/vegetable-shortage-2017-supermarkets-rationing-broccoli-lettuce-crisis/

Why do I describe this as a possible early taste of Maunder Minimum like conditions? As WUWT has reported, solar activity has been unusually low this cycle, and appears to be trending downwards, leading to predictions we are entering a new solar grand minimum.

While the connection between solar activity and weather is controversial, in Europe, Solar Grand Minima appear to be associated with cold, rainy weather, and growing season difficulties.

Consider this description of the Little Ice Age, one of the most brutal periods of which coincided with the Maunder Minimum (1645 – 1715). The description is from Hubert Lamb, founded of the Climatic Research Unit.

Hubert Lamb said that in many years, “snowfall was much heavier than recorded before or since, and the snow lay on the ground for many months longer than it does today.” In Lisbon, Portugal, snowstorms were much more frequent than today; one winter in the 17th century produced eight snowstorms. Many springs and summers were cold and wet but with great variability between years and groups of years. Crop practices throughout Europe had to be altered to adapt to the shortened, less reliable growing season, and there were many years of dearth and famine (such as the Great Famine of 1315–1317, but that may have been before the Little Ice Age).

Read More: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age

Obviously in today’s connected world high speed transport will soon solve the shortage in England. It is possible to fly or ship vast quantities of food from other regions to make up for any lack.

However this unexpected food shortage should be a wakeup call to Europe and the world, that there are potential climate problems other than global warming which should occupy some of their attention.

If current conditions worsen, and crop losses in Europe and other Northern growing regions become the norm, at the very least poor people will begin to suffer from the impact of rising prices.

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358 thoughts on “The New Maunder Minimum? Vegetable Shortages Strike London

      • I quit growing a garden three years ago after trying for three years with diminishing success. Climate has a lot to do with it.

      • Eric

        British children, who don’t know what snow looks like, are heartbroken that they won’t know what broccoli looks like either.

        I am currently in Austria where there is no shortage of the wretched stuff

        Of more interest is that last week we went to Vienna and enjoyed the first significant snow that city had seen in four years. Any Brits reading this will be happy to know that the local transportation system completely fell apart because of the snow event in the time honoured fashion that we thought only Britain enjoyed

        Tonyb

      • You don’t live in Southern Arizona and California where growing winter vegetables is a significant part of the economy, I even saw a large field of carrots while traveling East on Highway 95, somebody trying something new. If we got the kind of weather that is hitting southern Spain and the Mediterranean currently, it would be a disaster possibly in billion dollar terms.

        If vegetables leave here bound for Britain and Europe, they will be expensive there and cause prices to rise here.

    • The Great Famine of 1695–97 affected present Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Norway and Sweden as a result of cold impacted harvests. Some 30-35% of Finns died.

      • Chris Hanley February 7, 2017 at 10:13 pm: “another excellent graphic from climate4you”

        WR: Indeed. Interesting in this graphic is the fact that ‘modern warming’ is visible especially in winter temperatures. This could reflect more Southwestern winds in recent winters, instead of winds from the (wintercold) North West, North and East. If so, ‘winter warming’ in England reflects more a regional pattern than a ‘global warming’. As the sea in the Southwest is warmer than the sea in the North and Northwest and also warmer than the land in winter in the East, the Earth (sea) doesn’t have to be warmed to show higher winter temperatures in England when the wind patterns change.

      • The above graph (Chris Hanley February 7, 2017 at 10:13 pm) shows a downturn in the CET temperatures in the recent years.

        A closer look reveals that the maximum (August) and minimum (February) annual temperatures (the CET is a good proxy for the western Europe) have been on a down-trend for nearly two decades.
        The observed cooling trend is entirely consistent with decline in the solar activity since the apparent ending of the recent solar grand maximum.

      • OMG you all, its one season a trend it does not make, calm down. You are all starting to sound like the nuts on the other side. When we see three or more low cycles in the sun and we have a 1.5 to 3 degree change in temperature to the down side than you can declare the next LIA, till then slow down its weather.

      • I have not said or even I don’t think we are heading for a new LIA, but if you ask something akin to the Dalton minimum in the early 1800s is most likely.
        Since there are two contentious factors often considered: CO2 and solar activity, and CO2 isn’t falling and solar activity is, not just sunspot count, but also magnetic field strength

        the decline in the CET’s two extremes (high & low) is entirely consistent with decline in the solar activity.

    • What’s a cold impacted harvest? Is it when the crops get squashed somehow by the cold weather? But then, again, is it a cold, impacted harvest or a cold-impacted harvest?

      • There are several bad things that can happen in cold weather to crops:

        A) Fresh vegetables; like lettuce do not tolerate being frozen. Since cold air pools in low spots, such as fields surrounded by forests or buildings or any combo thereof; frost sensitive vegetables can be killed or severely damaged, even when ambient weather temperatures are above freezing.
        • a) Even when plants survive cold periods, the leaves may be damaged by ice or frozen rain storms. Very few customers, especially amongst the nouveau vegetarians, buy damaged looking plants or plant leaves. Yes, snow crushed plants, where the larger leaves are flattened to the ground, fall into this category.
        • b) NB Snow can be a protective cover from harsh freezes. i.e. lettuce covered by snow will survive the following coldest night. Root crops, e.g. potatoes left in the ground under snow cover may not be frozen during the winter, risky though.

        B) In the brassica, broccoli/cabbage, world, the plants are much more tolerant of chilly weather. But when freezing weather or consistently low temperatures occur; their rate of growth slows or stops. After all, broccoli is the flower buds forming and few plants like to flower when it is freaking cold.

        C) Many plants do not tolerate their roots either freezing or sitting in cold stagnant water. In both cases, frozen or root rot kills the roots and the crop dies. The latter danger is more prevalent for cold hardy plants, e.g. grapes, fruit trees that would survive the ground freezing but cannot stand having their roots stay wet and cold for long periods.

        D) Plants in the legume family of peas tolerate cool weather very well, in that they produce the sweetest crops in cool weather. But hard cold, less than -1°C, (<30°F) damages and slow the plant greatly reducing the crop. Temperatures less than -3°C, (<27°F) can kill the entire plant.

        E) Grain crops and other crops, e.g. grapes, pole beans, fruits and even some corn varieties, require a certain length of warm period between the last frost in spring and the first frosts in autumn to properly ripen. Rye and barley are raised in the most Northern countries because they tolerate shorter growing seasons; but seasons too short for rye and barley do occur with a corresponding failure of the grain crop entirely.
        • a) Wild rice (Zizania palustris) is another grain from the grass family and is cooked similarly to regular rice (I often combine them before cooking, ratio 1/4 cup wild rice to 1 cup regular rice). The wild rice is still bran coated so it does benefit from a few hours soak before cooking with regular rice that has the bran removed.
        • b) Wild rice does not have gluten, so can not make risen breads by itself. Northern wild rice, which is the variety referenced above, tolerates very cold long winters and is harvested throughout southern and coastal Canada.

        F) Long periods of very cool-cold days that are also overcast, can delay many growing plants that depend on abundant sunlight.

        G) Ice storms, or heavy wet snow storms can damage many upright plants; e.g. trees.

        H) Cold weather, especially cold wet weather during flowering periods minimizes any possibility of pollination by insects.

        I) Hard freezes during flower bud development (swelling and expansion), may kill all of the developing flowers on cold hardy plants; e.g. peach, apple, cherry, plum trees.
        • a) Hard freezes will kill most fleshy vegetable plants; e.g. squash, corn, tomato, pepper, potato, beans, etc. Pepper (chili peppers) are raised as annuals in colder areas, but the plants can live and produce peppers for years if brought inside to a sunny window. Just keep the peppers picked so the plant keeps flowering, much like a rose bush.

        Is that enough for a start?

      • My maternal grandfather raised a small orchard in Missouri, in a region known for late frosts. To keep the trees from coming out of winter hibernation too early, he would cut blocks of ice from the frozen ponds and bury them near the roots. Trees sample the soil temperature at the roots and hibernate/”wake up” at a certain threshold. A greening tree caught in a late frost would survive, but would be useless for fruit that year.

    • “Chicken shadow soup ” Hang chicken so shadow is across cauldron of boiling water for 30 minutes. Serve without garnishments.

      michael

      • Moose track soup- go out find moose track in the snow scoop up boil till done season with pine needles and birch bark to taste for extra flavor use squirrel or rabbit tracks.

      • Oddly enough, my brothers and I discovered while young that white bread with mayonnaise (aioli) and seasoned with salt and pepper, taste remarkably like a chicken sandwich. Add a leaf or two of lettuce or spinach if available.

        Explanation:
        During our earlier years, my Father was paid once a month. The following Thursday we would go grocery shopping, for the month. Perishables like bread and lunch meats would be bought weekly, if there was enough money.
        By the end of the month, money would be short for lunch meats, but we always had lots of that “Wonder Bread”; a very light fluffy cotton like bread that was very cheap per slice.

        One morning, I started making lunches and put mayonnaise on the bread slices while one of my brothers went to get the sliced chicken or bologna. We were out, there wasn’t even any American cheese or canned tuna fish.

        So we boys (3) went to school with chicken sandwiches without chicken. While not as filling as chicken filled sandwiches, they were almost as enjoyable.

        It may have helped our tastebuds somewhat that our Mother was a terrible cook. During our later years, it was commonplace to check was was going on for dinner and to bug out before my Father got home to make us all sit down at the table.

        There were dinners where my Father and two youngest brothers (12 and 13 years after the younger of the older three boys) were the only members who failed to escape in time. Of course, at infant and toddler stages they didn’t have a chance. But even my Mother knew when it wasn’t a good time to eat dinner at home.

    • is this a moment for models.

      You know plastic models of vegetables.

      3D printers and beam me over some food may fill this slot.

  1. I’d say we are in fact likely entering a Maunder Minimum and the impact is going to be devastating on many fronts, especially for agricultural production. And with a rising human population that will mean … mass famine! The anti-human greens will love that:

    “A cancer is an uncontrolled multiplication of cells; the population explosion is an uncontrolled multiplication of people. We must shift our efforts from the treatment of the symptoms to the cutting out of the cancer.” -Paul Ehrlich, Stanford Biologist

    But, to the chagrin of the greens, we may be able to avoid the worst of the famines if CO2 levels rise dramatically:

    INCREASE CO2 emissions!

    • There need not be any famine. The USA feeds a big part of our corn crop to cars, just use tar sands and shale oils instead and we drown in excess food. What isn’t fed to cars mostly goes to cows, chickens, and pigs. A cow turns about 10 dry pounds of grains into one wet pound of cow. You can eat for 10 days if you eat the grains, only one meal for the steak…

      The world has much more food than we need, even if half were lost to bad weather. Just stop feeding it to cars and cows.

      • A reindeer turns about 10lb of inedible lichen into one pound of succulent venison. You can starve if you try an eat the lichen, or live for a day if you eat the reindeer.

        Repeat for seals, whales, sheep, goats and just about every other food animal except grain fed factory farmed animals.
        .
        In general you graze animals where human edible crops wont grow.

      • @ Leo S. Out west cattle ranchers may brag of one beef per hundred acres of scrubland, but the beefs are expert at thriving on scrub. In the east, farmers raise 100 head per acre of muddy feed lot.

      • I used to raise cows and sheep on my farm in NY and they GRAZED all summer long and ate grain in winter. The feed lots are the end of the process not the beginning or middle.

      • Increased CO2 should result in more plants per acre, even in scrub land. So the number of beef per 100 acres should go up a little.

      • A cow turns about 10 dry pounds of grains into one wet pound of cow.
        ==================
        Cows eat grass/hay. A human will die from starvation if fed the cow’s diet.

        Cows are fed grain to fatten them up for slaughter, and to turn the fat white instead of yellow. This changes grade B beef to grade A, increasing both the total weight and the price per pound.

        However, cows could just as easily be fed a diet that would kill a human, and the end result would be cows that humans could eat.

      • “There need not be any famine”; very true, E.M.Smith, but it has been a long time since there has been a famine cause by a real lack of food. The usual culprit is a third-world corrupt dictator skimming relief supplies to sell or using food as a weapon against opposing tribes or political parties. A close second is plain old fashioned logistics expenses, even with free food, it still costs money to move from where it is to where it is needed.
        To move enough food to nullify a regional famine takes Military-Grade Logistics and most third-world corrupt dictators are adversed to inviting in enough Foreign controlled military to do the job, especially when the third-world corrupt dictator maintain power by demonizing Foreign Powers.

      • Unless they were bought by stockyards to be fattened, cows and cattle eat grass during the spring, summer and fall; then get dried meadow grass or timothy with alfalfa supplements.

        When the cows are brought in for milking, they get fed meadow grass hay or timothy; with the uneaten stalks swept out with the manure. Grain supplements may be fed during the worst winter weather. Been there, done that.

        Birds (fowl) get fed corn. Pigs can be fed corn, but generally get fed the wastes. Cattle get corn and other wastes, (distiller’s grains and solubles, low commercial value corn (moldy, short ear, small kernels, damaged, buggy, etc.), chopped corn plants, beet tops, etc)

        The old “corn fed” beef statement is from midwest stockyards and some ranches feeding corn, a very high calorie food, to the bovines for a few weeks before slaughter, and now for cattle fed grain supplements throughout cold winters when graze is not available.
        A) it does raise the weight
        B) It does improve the fat marbling of the meat. N.B. It usually will not raise the quality rating of the beef very much, but it does raise the appearances and often flavor of the meat.
        C) a long term diet of corn for cattle is bad for the bovines. Cattle rechew their graze and ferment silage through multiple stomachs into digestible masses, basically turning low quality foods into high quality meat.
        D) The advantage of ruminants (multiple stomach) is that they prosper when eating low value very high fiber foods.
        E) Feeding high calorie supplements during bitter cold periods helps cattle stay warm, even when exposed to winter conditions.
        F) All cattle, even the ones finished at stock yards, start out grazing grasses after they are weaned!

        Someone, playing with spreadsheets or their personal calculator, is foolish when they automatically assume all cattle eat corn, corn divided by cattle weight = corn per pound of meat.

        Especially when those cattle are eating wastes from distillers, food processors separating quality food from plants, plant discards (turnip tops, beet tops, beet rinds, etc). i.e. waste product from producing foods for people.

      • This is absolutely spot on and people need to understand the wider damage that ethanol mandates have done to US agriculture. So much land production has now been shifted to corn for ethanol that we no longer grow as much of other grains such as barley, wheat, and oats. This has resulted in a complete elimination of these grains from US surplus. The US now no longer has ANY grain surplus to use in case of an emergency here or a famine elsewhere. Those pictures of ship loads of US grain going to feed people starving in some far off place due to a sudden drought are a relic of a time long past, we can’t do that today.

        This has the additional impact of removing US influence in global ag markets because we no longer participate there since all of our grain surplus is being put into gas tanks now. While many farmers have made a lot of money from these ethanol mandates, they have been bad for food security globally and are damaging our ag export relationships.

        From 1991 to 2011 US barley production fell from more than 135 million bushels per year to less than 20 million bushels. The awareness of this needs to be raised. Thanks, Mike, for posting that.

        http://beerandwinejournal.com/barley-low/

      • On corn ethanol and the future of America – written in 2012.

        Well , now we know what happened:

        America got smart and elected Trump.

        Canada got stupid and elected Justin, Kathleen and Rachel.

        Bravo USA. Poor Canada.

        https://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/01/22/weekly-climate-and-energy-news-roundup-38/#more-55226

        Nick Shaw says:
        January 23, 2012 at 11:44 am
        Allan MacRae says:
        Hmmm, your friend, “I think overconsumption of water from the Ogallala aquifer due to corn ethanol overproduction is a much greater environmental threat.” appears to have uncovered one of those pesky unintended consequences, no?
        ______________________

        Actually Nick, I wrote this.

        I “inherited” a corn ethanol plant in Wyoming in 1998. Despite good local management and huge federal and state subsidies, it was a break-even business, another way of saying it was so energy-inefficient that its life-of-project energy balance was probably negative – it consumed more energy than it created. Grid-connected wind power is no better, and solar power is much worse.

        Since then I’ve learned that the vital Ogallala aquifer is dropping at an alarming rate in some locations, due to excess withdrawal of water for irrigation – much of it for corn ethanol.

        If the environmental movement truly had the interests of America and the world at heart, they would abandon their fascination with wasteful, inefficient corn ethanol, wind power and solar power, and focus on real environmental problems like vital groundwater conservation.

        However, if one analyses their actions, it is clear that the “greens” are not interested in the environment or the wellbeing of humankind. Rather, the environment is merely a convenient smokescreen for their far-left political objectives.

        Regrettably, Obama is in bed with these radicals. It is immaterial if he shares their views or is merely a fool, duped by their rhetoric.

        My poor, dear America – my neighbour – my friend.

        You are governed by scoundrels and imbeciles.

        What will become of you?

      • Corn is also an unrepentant nutrient hog. Without copious application of fertilizers, even a field of Class 1 land can’t grow a good corn crop two years in a row. It would need to either lie fallow or be planted with a mulch crop the second year. And probably the third year, also.

        Want to know how they produce most of said fertilizer? And how they run the machines that apply it? Hydrocarbons.

        The lunacy.

    • Today in Jakarta, about 9 AM in the morning, the ambient CO2 was well over 700 ppm. During the day it drops to about 510 and sits there. Yesterday I didn’t see it drop below 500.

      Perhaps the jungles are growing so quickly because the CO2 level is much higher than the global average.

      • Perhaps that doesn’t make a lot of sense since the jungles are not in Jakarta. Do you have evidence of consistent 500ppm+ CO2 levels in Sumatra, Kalimantan and West Papua?

      • And perhaps it’s because plant respiration occurs more at night, producing carbon dioxide and plant photosynthesis occurs during the day, consuming carbon dioxide than they produce. I would expect carbon dioxide to be higher in the morning.

      • Much of the CO2 producing activity occurs during the day. At night, winds blow the CO2 out to the countryside. (Which appreciates it.)

  2. The US West Coast is also having a brutal winter. Marine West Coast zones are having Midwest style snow (repeatedly).

  3. Eric Worrall.
    Might as well cover yourself with jelly-you’re toast.
    Boy who cried wolf. there is no way you can on the one hand discredit CAGW and then say “Little Ice Age”
    Some will see it, some defending “turf” will fight it others will be confused and unsure.

    There is hope ,, if we have time. If it is too sudden add butter, (last chance) we can’t react, we don’t (any longer) know how to live in such an environment as a civilization . If it is a Maunder Minimum we need fifteen years to learn gradually how to adapt to it.

    Cross fingers and hope it is only a bad AMO&PDO shift.

    michael

    • MIke and 2 Erics

      If global temperature is primarily driven by the integral of solar activity, with a hip-hop from the PDO and AMO, then there is a finite probability of global cooling starting anytime now.

      But the real acid test is not who predicted global cooling just this week, based on the truly horrific “veggie crisis” that has just struck Britain and the Continent.
      [“Rätionin’ has been imposed, and all that that entails… .Never you mind my dear I said to her…”]

      Let’s find someone who predicted global cooling 15 or 20 years ago. Let’s see… O yes! I did!

      I (actually we) predicted global cooling starting by 2020-2030 in an article I wrote, published on Sept 1. 2002 in the Calgary Herald.

      Pray God, I hope to be wrong, Warm is good; Cold is bad; Cold kills,,, more than just the veggies..

      Best, Allan

      • Not long after in the early 2003 I devised the equation suggesting that solar Grand Maximum is coming to an end, while at the time the NASA (Marshall Space Flight Center) was predicting even stronger SC24.
        No point talking to them then, so in June of 2003 I wrote to the alternative at JPL (Pasadena), well known solar scientist ( Dr. Joan Feynman, sister of Richard).
        The advise was to publish (published Jan 2004) and the forthcoming SC24 will validate either of two views. Surprisingly the equation proved to be far closer to the observed result than I ever expected.
        I have no convincing hypothesis, while NASA had a theory (now obsolete) but as R. Feynman said:
        “It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.” But again, Feynman did find the reason for the catastrophic failure of a NASA’s launch, while they couldn’t.
        My result could be just an ‘incredible coincidence’, unless of course SC25 falls in line too, in which case we’ll have to wait for SC26, I hope the WUWT and most of us will be still going strong by then.
        The equation with detailed instructions for reproduction of the result is here .

      • Thank you Vuk. I will look at your reference later this week.

        I regret that I have not had the time to verify the work of others on this important subject..

        I believe that the extreme cold and human suffering during the Maunder and Dalton Minimums was not just a random event, and the occurrence of extreme cold during these periods of lower solar activity was not just a coincidence.

        I believe that the time-integral of (lower) solar activity drives global cooling, and oceanic cycles (e.g. the PDO) create variability in global temperatures

        Historically, the occurrence of two consecutive low solar cycles (like SC24 and SC25) tends to coincide with global cooling. I think our 2020-2030 (start-of-cooling) prediction from 2002 is still looking good, although I think cooling may start a bit earlier, perhaps as early as 2017-2020..Hope to be wrong.

        What is your prediction and when did you make it? Vuk? Others?

        Faites vos jeux!

        Best, Allan

      • Considering that the equations (there are three) were directly contradicting the NASA’s theory of the solar activity, in order to publish I was advised not to contradict or even draw attention to the NASA’s results, furthermore not to qualify some well known astronomical numbers, else it would be flatly rejected. For that reason the graphs end at the date of submission, no extrapolation or a prediction as such were offered. However the suitable ‘excel’ form was associated with each graph, enabling anyone interested to easily ‘determine’ amplitude of the future events from the extrapolated values.

        above is the screen shot from the paper published Jan. 2004
        About two to three years later while the NASA was still pursuing the strongest ever SC24, Dr. Hathaway did reproduce formula noting the clear implications for the projected amplitude of the SC24. His verdict was ‘not possible’.

      • Dr. MacRae, Do you have a best guess as to what the time integral for solar activity might be?
        5 years? 20 years?

      • Allan M.R. MacRae
        Let’s find someone who predicted global cooling 15 or 20 years ago. Let’s see… O yes! I did!

        Not something I’d be bragging about Alan given the opposite continues apace with no evidence whatsoever of the trend reversing – lettuce shortages in London notwithstanding.

        Soggy salad does not a Maunder Minimum make.

      • Tony McLeod – typical nonsense from you – misstate what someone says, and then criticise it.

        When they were handing out Scottish brains and Scottish ethics, you were in the wrong line.

        Please do not comment on any of my posts – your are simply an offensive imbecile.

      • Hi Vuk,

        Your equation looks a lot like the Gleissberg Cycle, but I’m sure you know that.

        My friend Paleoclimatologist Dr. Tim Patterson used his research into the Gleissberg to predict the next cooling cycle, to begin circa 2020-2030 – 80-90 years after that last cooling cycle that started circa 1940.

        I hope we are wrong about that cooling, Humanity and the environment both do poorly a cooling world.

        Regards, Allan

      • Alan you are mistaken. I quoted you verbatim.

        Think you can insult me and that wins the argument?

        I will go further: if you’re bragging about having predicted cooling then you are fool.

      • Hi Alan
        Here is something I found rather interesting.
        Average length of a sunspot cycles during the last 200 years is about 10.7 years.
        W. Gleissberg In his letter (1945) Evidence for a long solar cycle writes:
        ” One long cycle is equal to 7 eleven-year cycles”, which would make the Gleissberg’s cycle about 75 years long using the true value of 10.7 years.
        Spectral power distribution for the GISP2 Ice Core 1000 Year long (1000 – 1993 AD) Ar-N2 Isotope Temperature Reconstruction (data from ncdc.noaa) has the strongest component at exactly 75 years.

        However, as stated in another publication, some 25 years later, Gleissberg appears to change his mind.
        Was the original Gleissberg solar cycle estimate of 75 years just an accidental coincidence, or is the Greenland temperature variability with its critical relation to global trends directly related to now ‘nearly forgotten’ 7 x SSN cycles periodicity?

    • Meh. Modern farmers would like some warning. But they won’t take 15 years to adapt. One season to choose new varieties maybe. Agriculture is a heck of a lot more resilient than it used to be.

      • There aren’t many that can grow under Snow & Ice though.
        I think it may be more a case of many & large greenhouses, real ones not climate ones.

      • Ian the Meh – what a foolish comment you made.

        Read this – in summary, it’s not primarily about concern for the veggies.

        Read especially Reference 2:
        Cold Weather Kills 20 Times as Many People as Hot Weather September 4, 2015″”

        ***********************************

        https://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/11/21/keeping-up-the-heat-on-the-uk-supreme-court/#comment-2077716

        Socialists Justin Trudeau and Rachel Notley were recently elected in Ottawa and Edmonton (Alberta), both by voters who wanted “change”, Now we have the same warmist lunatic ravings in Ottawa and Edmonton and our economy is headed into the dumpster,

        Here is what “change” will look like:
        1. A major increase in energy costs, due to their move to “green energy” schemes, which are typically not green and produce little useful energy.
        2. Huge increases in government debt to subsidize their intermittent and diffuse green energy schemes.
        3. Huge payoffs of taxpayer monies to their financial sponsors, who will build these green energy monstrosities.
        4. Huge increases in energy costs to consumers, who will be forced to buy this intermittent and unreliable green energy at greatly increased prices..
        5. An increase in joblessness as industry relocates to lower-cost energy venues.
        6. An increase in Winter Mortality Rates, particularly among the elderly and the poor, due to the greatly increased cost of home heating.

        These dire results have already been widely experienced in Europe. Europeans rulers set out on this extremely foolish and destructive course years ago, and are now retreating as fast as they can, only limited by the speed that their politicians can admit they were utterly wrong about energy policy.

        It is truly remarkable that young Justin and Rachel cannot even learn from the obvious blunders of the Europeans, but have to go and make the same incredibly foolish errors again, all by themselves.

        When someone acts in such an obviously stupid manner, one has to ask the question – are they really that stupid, or are they simply corrupt? Is warmist nonsense just a scam to steal from the public, much like the many socialist scams we see in the developing world, where rulers get elected by promising the dream of a better life, and then proceed to live in luxury while their citizens continue to suffer in poverty?

        Regards, Allan

        References:

        1. The UN’s IPCC Has No Credibility On Global Warming September 6, 2015
        by Allan MacRae
        https://friendsofsciencecalgary.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/the-uns-ipcc-has-no-credibility-on-global-warming-6sept2015-final.pdf

        2. Cold Weather Kills 20 Times as Many People as Hot Weather September 4, 2015
        by Joseph D’Aleo and Allan MacRae
        https://friendsofsciencecalgary.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/cold-weather-kills-macrae-daleo-4sept2015-final.pdf

  4. Eat more kale. “Sustainable” types have a grudge against iceberg lettuce. They also tend to frown on greens not sourced from your neighbors backyard compost heap. So the folks will be hungry or broke but at least they are warmed by inexpensive power. Oh not that either. Well the obesity problem is getting better then.

    • I don’t care how cold it gets, I am NOT eating kale. Obesity won’t get better, either. Veggies aren’t fattening. High calorie foods tend to be able to grow in both warm and cold climates, so unless the cold reaches epic proportions, people aren’t going to go hungary due to weather for a while.

      • Actually, in the past several years there were 42 studies on the impact cholesterol has on obesity and *Surprise*–all 42 found there was absolutely NO connection between the two. Researchers were so shocked that they continued their investigations into what actually DID cause obesity and it was isolated to one thing:

        Refined carbohydrates.

        Yup, it wasn’t fats or oils or avocados or beef or any of those falsely-accused suspects; it was all those processed foods that fill our grocery store shelves–from white flour to white sugar and white chocolate and on and on.

      • @rockyroad.

        Yep. Its all those GRAINS that we feed to cattle that make us (and the cattle) fat.

        Nothing less healthy than cereals. Period.

    • Frankly kale is disgusting. I am no fan of brassicas in general, but kale has to be the worst…and chard. That’s rubbish too.

      Feed it to some rabbits, and eat the bunnies instead

      • Less for thee but more for me! I would be a vegetable-Ayran but for training and habit. Baby Martian Heads, broccoli, cauliflower, artichokes are my favorites! There is a Globe Artichoke cultivar said to grow in northern Wisconsin. My tiny Island harvested ship loads of potatoes until Idaho cut the bottom out of the market. We may yet again.

      • You’re missing something, Leo. We eat kale almost daily, for example with supper this evening, and as salad at lunchtime. Just make some decent dressing, chop kale finely, and discard the stalks. Add other salad bits and bobs, and enjoy a specific against age-related macular degeneration. Kale grows well even in my dreadfully poor soil. Shield against pigeons!

      • Out of the brassicas, I much prefer kale.

        In my earlier list of winter troubles for vegetables, I left kale out. Kale survives quite cold temperatures. When other vegetable have long since succumbed, one can go and kick the ice/snow off the kale and bring it into the table.
        Kale is sweeter, when grown during a cold winter.

        Forget the large bushy bunches of kale sold with the collard and mustard greens. That large tough stuff needs long and slow cooking.

        Bought a bunch of kale? Peel off the large outer leaves and reserve for braising with tough cuts of meat. Use the smaller inside leaves for cooking with eggs or cut up into soups.

        After kale, I enjoy brussels sprouts and cauliflower, (more flower buds), chinese cabbage, bok choy, choy sum…

        Last on my list is broccoli.
        1) because it is quite bitter to me. 2) because when one raises broccoli, aphids are a bear to deal with. Those little green aphids match the coloring of the tiny flower buds and once they infest the head, no amount of washing gets them out.

    • Iceberg lettuce is more a taste and texture thing than a nutritional thing, and mostly gives your ranch dressing something to cling to. It’s better for it’s unpretentious decadence rather than it’s nutritional value.

  5. golf charlie commented over at Bishop Hill a while ago, along the lines of, “unprecedented” British children celebrating snow in another country.

  6. People in northern temperate climates are not supposed to have things like iceburg lettuces and broccoli in the middle of winter, anyway.
    And this goes double for anyone who indulges in environmental politics or ideology.

    • Let them become vitamin deficient by spring when they have to eat only locally grown food as many people used to be.

      • Oh Babs, there’s plenty of locally grown veg. Its just a bit BORING. And plenty of fruit being imported from WarmerPlaces™

        One of the joys of Brexit may be that we will be able to import without EU agricultural tarriffs, the wonderful produce of Australia New Zealand, South America, South Africa, Kenya….

        The EU was always a protected trade area, especially for farming. Never a free market.

      • Leo

        You are right that the EU is anything but a free market. It is a closed shop.

        In addition, it costs about £12billion a year to access the market (the closed shop). I do not know on what basis some people would claim that to be free.

      • For those who have never had winter butter, winter butter is different from summer butter. And quite pale by comparison.

      • Barbara

        For those who have never had winter butter, winter butter is different from summer butter. And quite pale by comparison.

        That’s what Annatto is for!

    • With all due respect you could if you had a sufficient quantity of events such as shortage of veges or surplus of veges plot climate shifts.

      Data quantity can squeeze errors down and convert anecdote into evidence.

      Just saying. love your stories, your work and share a love of the Solomon’s as it stumbles through life.

      • Bill Treuren February 7, 2017 at 8:19 pm

        With all due respect you could if you had a sufficient quantity of events such as shortage of veges or surplus of veges plot climate shifts.

        With all due respect, I’ve posted this before. Here’s the money quote:

        Today, we have considerably more data than were available to Herschel; these were collected both before and after he stated his hypothesis, and they can be used for both retrospective and prospective testing. For London wheat prices both before 1801 and, separately, after 1802, binary significance probabilities and Pearson correlations and their effective probabilities are summarized in Table 1. None of these are indicative of statistical significance. While solar irradiance may affect global climate, from our analysis of data of the type considered by Herschel, we conclude that historical wheat prices are not demonstrably useful for inferring past sunspot numbers, and, conversely, sunspot numbers are not demonstrably useful for predicting future wheat prices.

        w.

      • Willis Eschenbach February 7, 2017 at 9:24 pm
        Sigh the prices were due to a lifting of Blockades which released unsold stocks. And yes grains were able to be stored over years.

        Same thing with year without a summer. Check dates wars ended. and trade re-established.
        perfect timing for such an event, warehouses full of of stock. Sometimes the human race lucks out

        michael :-)

        “Napoleon Bonaparte seized power in 1799 after overthrowing the French revolutionary government. During this time, U.S. and French negotiators were concluding negotiations to end the Quasi-War with France. In 1802, Napoleon ended ten years of warfare with Great Britain under the Peace of Amiens.”

        https://history.state.gov/milestones/1801-1829/napoleonic-wars

      • Bill T

        “With all due respect you could if you had a sufficient quantity of events such as shortage of veges or surplus of veges plot climate shifts.”

        true enough but you don’t, so its weather! wait for ten years or so and see if you have a trend and then maybe just maybe it might be something other then weather.

      • Mike,

        The Year Without a Summer (1816) came after the Napoleonic Wars ended.

        Waterloo was in June 1815.

      • Gloateus Maximus February 8, 2017 at 4:27 am

        Yeah I know, but there were brief outbreaks of peace. 1803 was when the war restarted. It allowed Britain a chance to get some shipments in without dodging privateers.
        Then we joined the fun in 1812. Bony and the French threw in the towel March 31 1814.
        Jan,1815 for US and UK.
        100 days March 20 to July 8. Most of Europe was untouched by the 100 days so again like 1802 commodity prices fall.
        Like I said, two periods of bad weather right a the time trade was re-opened. the trade helped some sectors of the economies but did nothing for others. Rural was hit bad in Central Europe, as well as Northeastern US. This may have attributed to the founding of some religious groups that came out of the area at the time.

        Anyway thanks for commenting. sometimes I am to cryptic and don’t give enough information.

        michael

    • Willis,

      Ignorance is not bliss.

      If you knew something useful about solar activity you’d know we are presently at low 2010 levels.

      http://www.nature.com/news/2010/100414/full/news.2010.184.html

      http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8615789.stm

      https://phys.org/news/2011-10-link-solar-winter-weather-revealed.html

      If you were paying attention to weather reports from this year you’d know snow and cold records this year beat out many records that were set during prior low solar activity periods, many 100+ year old records.

      If you understood the following you’d also understand how weather relates to climate via the sun:

      1. Climate changes when weather changes.

      2. Weather changes when solar activity changes.

      3. The climate therefore cannot change without changes in solar activity.

      ie Weather and climate variability are due to solar variability.

      If you knew what to look for last summer you’d have noticed all the crop damage that occurred when TSI dropped below even the presently low levels during larger sunspot transits (which weren’t very large either).

      This year as TSI recently dipped to within a few tenths of a w/m^2 of solar minimum conditions, temps really dropped fast and further crop damages occurred, causing the Spanish freeze-off mentioned in the post.

      People will die from this ongoing irresponsible ignorance about solar variability.

      The SUN causes warming, cooling, and extreme events, not CO2!

      • Bob Weber February 7, 2017 at 8:45 pm

        Willis,

        Ignorance is not bliss.

        If you knew something useful about solar activity you’d know we are presently at low 2010 levels.

        Bob, if you knew something useful about human beings you’d know that if you start out by insulting somebody, they’re likely to recommend that you osculate their fundamental orifice, and pay no attention to your claims.

        Q.E.D.

        w.

      • +1 Willis :D

        Plus conditions in Spain this year have been totally unexpected and do not confirm any trend of any kind that could possibly have been caused by the sun, no matter how unusual or not its behaviour could be in recent times. And despite the conditions in Spain are certainly unusual, they are not unprecedented. Last precedent took place at a solar high.

      • I have spent much time in Spain the past year. I regularly looked at the windows 10 weather app, and throughout the entirety of 2016, temperatures on any given day were usually 2 or more degrees below the historic average for that day. There were periods of a week here and there where temperatures were average.

        This was born out by my swimming pool. In the summer it was about 30 degC occasionally 31degC. I think there were 2 days when it reached 32degC. Usually in late July/midAugust I would expect temperatures of about 35degC. Last year, my swimming pool was some 3 to 4 degC cooler than I would expect it to be.

        From November onwards it has been very cold and wet. A few weeks ago, my garden was covered in hail. I have never seen that in 15 years. The beach was white completely covered in hail. Again something that I have not seen. A couple of weeks ago, 6 trees in my garden blew down. On the estate many dozens of trees were blown over. My neighbour lost 100 roof tiles.

        The price of tomatos has doubled these past couple of weeks. Olive harvest was poor in 2016 with olive oil prices rising.

        Sure this is only weather, but bad weather leads to poor harvest (unless crops are grown under cover).

      • Richard verney: “throughout the entirety of 2016, temperatures on any given day were usually 2 or more degrees below the historic average for that day

        We did have a cool spring, but summer was quite hot overall for Spain. Third hottest actually. According to the AEMET (the country’s Meteorological Agency), “El verano 2016 (periodo comprendido entre el 1 de junio y el 31 de agosto de 2016) ha tenido un carácter muy cálido, con una temperatura media de 24,2º C, valor que queda 1,2º C por encima de la media de esta estación (período de referencia 1981-2010)”, which I bet you can understand that it means 1,2ºC hotter than average. You can fin this as well as some interesting graphs in the official report here: http://www.aemet.es/documentos/es/serviciosclimaticos/vigilancia_clima/resumenes_climat/estacionales/2016/Est_verano_2016.pdf

        Report for autumn is not available yet, but my memory of it is certainly different from yours.

    • Um, vegetables actually are a kind of thermometer.

      Each one has lower bounds for sprouting seeds and time to sprout is temperture dependent and proportional. Each one has a “growing degree days” to maturity. You must match the variety GDD to your local actual GDD or have a crop failure.

      Much of farm planning depends on this and the ag dept puts out GDD maps for farmers with normals and to-date values along with anomalies.

      So plants are a kind of running total degrees x time recording thermometer.

      Tomatoes, as an extreme example, need nights above 50 F to set fruit. Cold nights during fruit set means no tomatoes. Which then tells you it was below 50 F… (Kale grows in snow and barley & oats sprout in 33 F dirt, so they are your cold crops.. No oats? It didn’t go above freezing for long… similarly there are crops that stop in heat… see Phoenix planting calendars for when things stop in heat…)

      I’ve sporadically thought it would be fun to design a thermometer garden (some flowers have particular temperatures too) where by looking at what sprouted and bloomed you could give the average temps, but don’t have the needed acreage…

    • Vegetables are not thermometers.

      Unlike Scots pine trees, eh, Mr Briffa?

      It was noted I believe in the 19th century that years with exceptionally high corn (wheat) prices coincided with an alarming number of drawn cricket matches*. Wisden’s almanac** has charted the performance of all cricket related data for well over 150 years.

      Today, such a correlation would be trumpeted by the New Left as a simple way of bringing down the cost of living, by ‘adjusting’ the rules of cricket to reduce the likelihood of drawn games.

      They already did similar with university graduates, and a mass Indoctrination education program designed to make everyone’s salary higher, simply resulted in huge numbers of graduates of nothing worth knowing on social security. And, of course Climb-it Cyan-Tits**.

      * (matches that cannot be satisfactorally completed due to rain, end up drawn)
      ** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisden_Cricketers'_Almanack
      *** who should have simply been on social security in the first place.

      • The biggest failure of government has been education these past 40 or 50 years.

        Indeed, this was really brought home to me when I saw my Dad’s 11 plus paper which he sat (and passed) in the 1930s. There were no calculators back then and I suspect that most 15 years (who go on to pass their GCSEs) would not be able to do the maths questions. I could do the maths/science/English/geography questions, but i could not do the history questions. I could not have pass that 11 plus paper, and I rather doubt that many graduates/post graduates today could. It was a real eye opener of what children were expected to know back in the 1930s. We do live in a dumbed down generation.

      • “The biggest failure of government has been education these past 40 or 50 years.”

        Not at all. Government schooling has been a great success.

        In producing young adults who’ll believe any old crap the government tells them, and vote accordingly. Which is what it’s there for.

    • actually Willis
      weeds ARE as good as a thermometer:-)
      nettles only start growing when the nights are around 8c
      many veg seeds wont grow until night temps are also warm enough for them
      in Aus this yr tomatos self seeders and quinoa and wild fat hen relative ALL didnt begin growing till mid dec. 60 pea seeds got me 3 plants.
      so while theyre growing now..they wont produce much if anything.
      and now in feb we’re finally having a pretty warm few days in a row in the sth east

      • um…

        Seeds depend on soil temperature to properly sprout.

        Plants depend on soil temperatures, day and night temperatures to properly grow, flower and fruit.

        Plant many seeds too early, and mice or birds will fish them out before temperatures reach sprouting status. Many of the little critters bury foods for winter, so by spring they are actively sniffing the ground seeking seeds. We have squirrels and other rodents here.

        Seed eating birds are a real nuisance too. I swear the birds watch what and where seeds are planted. Perhaps, the birds just assume I changed bird feeder routines for spring?

        Then the seeds that do sprout are subject to damping off fungus in cold wet conditions.

        Pea seeds, and here I’m thinking of planting peas soon, in Virginia USA.

        Good, or perhaps better luck with your garden this year, mate!

    • Is the great famine of 1315-1317, amply documented, evidence? Are the millions of deaths it caused evidence? The first of a number of famines plaguing Europe. Not coincidentally it occurred at the end of the MWP which itself had spurred a large increase in populations which could not be sustained during the LIA. Warm is better!

    • Yes. Vegetables are thermometers. For you to have said differently reveals you haven’t ever worked in any kind of life based science.

      • Mark Burnell February 8, 2017 at 11:51 am Edit

        Yes. Vegetables are thermometers. For you to have said differently reveals you haven’t ever worked in any kind of life based science.

        Thanks, Mark. So when you go to check if you have a fever, you stick a shallot under your tongue?

        As to having worked in any life based science, wrong question—either I’m right or wrong, regardless of my experience.

        My own experience was growing up on a cattle ranch. I would assuredly describe this as working in a life science, since creating and sustaining plant and animal life was the reason for our existence. And my own experience with planting and watching and harvesting lots of different kinds of plants says most plants growth-vs-temperature curve is an upside-down “U” shaped response. Any plant grows poorly in both extra hot and extra cold conditions.

        Do you have evidence of a thermometer that gives the same reading in extra hot and extra cold conditions?

        Giving the same reading (reduced growth) for both hot and cold makes plants USELESS as historical proxies, because if a tree grew slowly in the year 1366, we can’t tell if that was because 1366 was too hot or too cold.

        Finally, we have a huge confounding factor—water availability. Put a plant out in a dry area and cut back on the water … growth slows, but the temperature is the same. Great thermometer that is, reads different in wet and dry conditions.

        So no, Mark … plants are not thermometers. Under certain specialized conditions they can give us general ideas, but the upside-down “U” shaped curve means for every growth rate there are two possible temperatures, and that’s ignoring the water availability confounding factor.

        So in most situations they are miles from useful as temperature proxies, or as I say, “plants are not thermometers”.

        Next time, my suggestion would be cut back on the assumptions of what I do and don’t know … lots of folks have made fools of themselves that way, you’re just the latest.

        w.

      • Willis, you are correct, but only if you use one vegetable at a time. If instead you use evidence from a variety of vegetables you would do better. Each vegetable responds to temperature stresses differently. It would be akin to.using one of those thermometers where different balls rise or fall according to the density of fluid that surrounds them. One float does not give you the temperature, but a combination of them does.
        I proposed something similar to CRU in the 1990s (that they compare the tree ring response of different tree species to environmental variables), but this suggestion was ignored

    • Forrest Gardener February 7, 2017 at 7:59 pm

      Can somebody give me the three line summary of what sort of solar energy warms the earth and to what extent it varies?

      1. The Total Solar Irradiation is every kind of solar energy from extreme ultraviolet to far infrared, and all of them warm the earth.

      2. Overall, it varies by less than 1% over the ~11-year sunspot cycle.

      3. There is no evidence of the less than 1% variation of the 11-year sunspot cycle having any effect on the weather down here at the surface, despite numerous claims to the contrary.

      Cue the people with other ideas in 3 … 2 … 1 …

      w.

      • I have followed this site and learned a lot. But when the warmist’s side used the “extreme droughts”, the “extreme tornado” events etc. and tie them to, first ” Global Warming” and then ” Climate Change” many of you said. hey slow down “It’s weather”. But now some of you seem to think ( as this article does) that one poor year of crop production brought on by, to me any way, very similar one time “weather events” is a start of a new Maunder Minimum and a start of a “little Ice Age” all over again?
        Sorry to me? Not a good idea. Slow down folks!
        As many specialty crop growers realize ( I grew peaches, grapes and cherries), they are just one weather event away from a TOTAL crop year failure,( the too many eggs in one basket syndrome).
        Frankly, I do not like this article ,
        To me it is leaning ( after these past few days of breaking news re NOAA etc.) to close to “gloating’.
        And btw Willis , thanks, I love your articles especially your memory lane short stories about you past on your new blog.

      • asybot – I agree, this is closer to propaganda than to science. But why can’t we have a little fun?

      • Not other ideas, but additional facts.

        The variation in high energy UV is much more.

        TSI changes slowly on decadal and longer timescales. The variation during solar cycle 21 (June 1976 to September 1986) was about 0.1% (peak-to-peak). In contrast to older reconstructions, most recent TSI reconstructions point to an increase of only about 0.05% to 0.1% between the Maunder Minimum and the present. By contrast, ultraviolet irradiance (EUV) varies by approximately 1.5 percent from solar maxima to minima, for 200 to 300 nm wavelengths. However, a proxy study estimated that UV has increased by 3.0% since the Maunder Minimum.

        http://www.mps.mpg.de/dokumente/publikationen/solanki/j111.pdf

      • MarkW February 8, 2017 at 8:17 am

        Willis, that would only be true if TSI is the only means by which the sun influences climate.

        Mark, I fear I have no idea what the “that” in your sentence refers to. I ask everyone to quote the exact words that they object to for this reason.

        Regards,

        w.

      • Gloateus Maximus February 8, 2017 at 7:50 am

        Not other ideas, but additional facts.

        The variation in high energy UV is much more.

        As a percentage it is more, but in part that is because it is so tiny. On an absolute basis the amount is minuscule.

        TSI changes slowly on decadal and longer timescales. The variation during solar cycle 21 (June 1976 to September 1986) was about 0.1% (peak-to-peak). In contrast to older reconstructions, most recent TSI reconstructions point to an increase of only about 0.05% to 0.1% between the Maunder Minimum and the present.

        The changes in TSI are far too small to be visible in the surface climate datasets.

        By contrast, ultraviolet irradiance (EUV) varies by approximately 1.5 percent from solar maxima to minima, for 200 to 300 nm wavelengths.

        True.

        However, a proxy study estimated that UV has increased by 3.0% since the Maunder Minimum.

        http://www.mps.mpg.de/dokumente/publikationen/solanki/j111.pdf

        Perhaps … perhaps not. Your link doesn’t work for me. I’m not overly fond of proxies, their accuracy is generally overestimated and their uncertainty underestimated …

        Regards,

        w.

      • The total wavelength-integrated energy from sunlight is referred to as the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI). It is measured from satellites to be about 1365.5 Watts/m2 at solar minimum to 1366.5 Watts/m2 at solar maximum. An increase of 0.1% in the TSI represents about 1.3 Watts/m2 change in energy input at the top of the atmosphere. This energy is scattered, reflected, and absorbed at various altitudes in the atmosphere, but the resulting change in the temperature of the atmosphere is measurable. It should be noted that the change in climate due to solar variability is likely small, but more research needs to be done. Space Weather Impacts On Climate

        Willis, when Goddard says something other than anthropogenic CO2 has a possible effect on climatic temperature, I normally expect they would under-estimate rather than over-estimate. If my memory serves me correctly, about a decade ago the warmist were claiming the anthropogenic forcing to be in the neighborhood of \latex$1.5W/m^{2}$ now with a TSI variance of \latex$1.3W/m^{2}$, the dog and pony show is about aerosols negative forcing because the energy imbalance id reported to be in the neighborhood of \latex$ 0.58W/m^{2}$

      • Willis,

        Sorry about the pdf link. In any case, UV varies a lot more than the rest of the solar spectrum.

        True that UV is a small portion of TSI, even when at its peak share of the total. However, that doesn’t matter. What signifies is that high-energy radiation can do things with climatic effects which visible and IR light can’t.

        As noted, one such thing is its effect on ozone. Another is the markedly different absorption spectra of different wavelengths in water:

        http://www1.lsbu.ac.uk/water/water_vibrational_spectrum.html

        Thus, a small part of TSI can have an outsized effect on climatic phenomena.

        That’s quite apart from the effects of other solar parameters, such as magnetic flux.

      • To summarize, it doesn’t matter that UV is a small share of TSI, as Dr. S so often points out. What signifies is that its climatic effects are qualitatively different from visible and IR light, regardless of quantity.

      • Gloateus Maximus February 8, 2017 at 3:53 pm

        To summarize, it doesn’t matter that UV is a small share of TSI, as Dr. S so often points out. What signifies is that its climatic effects are qualitatively different from visible and IR light, regardless of quantity.

        w.

    • What sort of solar energy warms Earth? [Question slightly re-phrased]. Answer: Blue light and a bit of green, and it varies quite a lot when clouds come and go. If AW posts my just-submitted article, you will see why!

  7. They had a shortage of potatoes in Sth Australia while back. They said it was due to the flood of one area. But it was not the prime growing area, it was due more to the manipulation of the market.

    • yeah in my town near where supply of spuds isnt that far away..
      $16.99 for 5kilos
      its now dropped to a still rank robbery 10.99
      onions at $3 a kilo or more and they werent grown much in the flooded spots either.

    • they are importing lettuce from America
      and b*tchin re around the equivalent of a couple of dollars
      2.50ish?
      hell thats a standard aus price bit of variance either way but up to $4 isnt unheard of in Aus maybe coming from qld in colder months down sth

  8. I would rather sweat than shiver. Just sayin…….

    Iceberg lettuce shortage in a warming world? I am speechless, or textless in this case! ;-)

  9. I wish someone above my pay grade would perform the total lifecycle carbon footprint of getting a fresh Spanish iceberg lettuce head to a London salad plate in February. Don’t forget the energy inputs of water and petroleum used for the Haber process fertilizer at the farm.

    • Iceberg lettuce has almost no calories, and is low in nutrition of any sort, so the simple answer is that it is a net negative. (It’s a good source of roughage, but so are other more nutritionally dense foods.)

    • The carbon footprint is obviously immense if you do not eat locally sourced seasonal products. But we live in a world where we want strawberries in December, and yet do not realise that the life style we enjoy today is built on the back of coal and oil, and if we give up on this form of energy, unless we go nuclear, it is inevitable that we have to accept a complete life style reversal more akin to that of the 18th century with low life expectancy, high infant mortality, and hard labour toiling at least 6 days a week..

      We should be celebrating and enthusing about the virtues and wonders of fossil fuel, not demonising it.

      • Richard Verney –
        “But we live in a world where we want strawberries in December, and yet do not realise that the life style we enjoy today is built on the back of coal and oil, and if we give up on this form of energy, unless we go nuclear, it is inevitable that we have to accept a complete life style reversal more akin to that of the 18th century with low life expectancy, high infant mortality, and hard labour toiling at least 6 days a week.”

        … not to mention eating nothing but stored root vegetables 7 days a week throughout the winter. (Canning wasn’t developed until the late 18th century.)

  10. “However this unexpected food shortage ….”

    There is no food shortage stupid. It is the middle of winter. I suspect that sweet corn on a road side farmer stand in Indiana is bare too. Not bare of
    snow.

    Go to any Walmart in the US, you will find all manner of fresh food from around the world. That is where us ‘poor’ Americans shop. Just to the right is the fresh vegetables, all the way in back is the beer and box wine.

    What I find amazing is how some can turn everything into a crisis.

    • There IS a vegetable shortage in the UK. Dunce.

      And because of extremely cold weather.

      And the big crisis and famine is going to be in the future. This is a just harbinger.

      • It’s a big step going from rotten lettuce to famine. We’ll see what next year brings. In the mean time buy a few canned veggies and live with it.

      • Eric S is either very, very stupid or English is not his first language.

        Just past the fresh vegetable counter at Walmart, is the frozen veggie and then the can veggies. There is no vegi shortage.

        From the first line, ‘some supermarkets’. That would also suggest to me that that there is no problem at all.

        Again, it amazes be that some can find a crisis no matter how good things are by any reasonable standard and other go along with the drama.

        If you find any excuse for drama go ahead and get upset because I think you are stupid. Getting upset because of what others think, is just more evidence of stupidity.

        I can understand if you live in California, how would you know if you were stupid?

    • Some grocery stores in the United States are so beautiful it can bring tears of joy.
      The lay out of fresh produce, meats and dairy are truly amazing.

      • In my wonderful city, the closest large grocer (there are six within 3 miles) is running specials to include: 3 Avocados for $1, a large bunch of Swiss Chard for $.25, Sweet potatoes for .$29/lb, a container- full blend of Mache’ and other sweet greens for $.25, boneless/skinless chicken breasts for $.99/lb and so on. It’s always like that at the stores around here. Competition is keen- there were 7 supermarkets nearby, until recently. If I increase my foraging radius a bit, I could include a Whole Foods and a Sprouts and one of their competitors which just opened a new store, 2 Walmart Super Centers, at least 2 Chinese/Oriental supermarkets, Mexican Super Mercados, several other local and national chain supermarkets and a host of smaller, specialty grocers- Middle Eastern, Korean, Seafood specialties, a Tofu shop, etc.

        There are always so many good deals around that it takes discipline to not over- buy and be wasteful.
        We’re right in the middle of the US and it’s Winter, so everything has traveled a long way to get here.
        Maybe Americans are just better than Europeans at sourcing and distribution and competing with each other.

      • Americans enjoy a much better cost of living than Europeans. The same with house prices. Europe is locked into an expensive market place, and it is getting worse with ever increasing energy costs that have a knock on effect on all prices.

        As a comparison skinless/boneless chicken breasts in Spain are about €7.50 per kilo. The € is coming close to parity with the dollar so that is over $3 per lb. So food in Europe costs about 3 times as much, and in Skandinavia it is even more (particularly Norway and Iceland).

        Don’t get me started on petrol price. Just one immense tax rip off.

      • A friend of mine who lives in Northern California told a story about an exchange student from one of the Eastern Block countries who was staying in the US as a result of a program his church sponsored back in the 80’s. The girl’s first experience with an american grocery store was a disorienting emotional crisis as she was overwhelmed by the abundance. The story did bring tears to your eyes. Most of us have no idea how well off we are.

      • The earth is astonishingly bountiful, thanks in no small part to more plant food in the air and to fossil fuels for energy and ag chemicals.

      • Steve Lohr at 7:31 am
        …Most of us [Americans] have no idea how well off we are.

        Bingo, Where I worked in the ’90s Anna and Milan who had walked out of Czechoslovakia over the mountains just like you saw in “Sound of Music” celebrated 25 years in the United States – they had cake & cookies and some memorabilia from their former lives. Milan worked in the tool room, and he told me, “You simply have no idea how good you have it here.” I’ll never forget that. Yes we are well off.

  11. There’s also been snow in Sahara and Mid East this winter. Usual snow in Seattle yesterday even.

    And a drought-busting, wet winter so far in California which should help bring in summer boat loads of produce to North American markets and beyond.

  12. Let’s have NOAA adjust and recalculate the harvest figures. There really is no problem, we’re just looking at the numbers wrong.

    • Excellent point! I think with the aide of NOAA, this could actually be turned into a major victory for global warming.

    • once homogenized we will find they were looking for lettuce in the wrong grid! It is actually growing gangbusters on Shetland.

  13. Tom Nelson ‏@tan123 13h13 hours ago
    The “solution” to CO2-induced electrical grid overloading involves everyone driving electric cars, right? https://twitter.com/tan123/status/828981155043086336

    Climate change may overload US electrical grid: study: https://phys.org/news/2017-02-climate-overload-electrical-grid.html?platform=hootsuite

    Wow, just what we need: as temperatures and agricultural production begins to plummet .. our ability to cope will be further diminished by a compromised electrical grid.

    It’s insanity what we’re doing, trying to impair our own power production. Only those countries that aggressively try to build strength into their grids will avoid future problems and prosper. It seems like we are aggressively trying to *weaken* our grid. That will bring disaster.

  14. Records for snowfall have been smashed here on Vancouver Island. I live on the east coast in Campbell River, we rarely get much snow but had copious amounts in December which amounted to a foot deep and hung around with freezing temps of -15 for weeks. Now we have had five days of snow fall and more expected tomorrow and that will top up the amount which is more than two feet deep today. By the time this arctic front passes we will have set new records for this area.

    • It was the (lack of) courgettes (zucchini) that pissed me off. My spice potatoes and courgettes are legendary..

      • I didn’t know what courgettes were, now that I know they are zucchini, I’m truly alarmed; zucchini are normally prolific producer. I’m usually more worried about how to get rid of the surplus than relieve the shortage.

      • Several years ago, there was a running joke at my church that if you accidentally left your car unlocked, you might find a bag of zucchini had been left on your seat. There was also speculation that bags of zucchini might start appearing on doorsteps in the night.

        Too many members growing zucchini in what was apparently a great year for the squash. You didn’t dare make eye contact in the hall, someone might try to foist some on you.

  15. I would hardly call a week of increased vegetable prices in a single country as evidence or a new Maunder Minimum. Better look at sun spot data over years. Sort of like saying it snowed today and a new ice age, or warm today so a AGW. Despite, looks like current solar cycle will be low in comparison to last two.

    • I agree, but it does demonstrate that cold is often a worse problem than warmth. Especially when the warmth appears to consist of nighttime temperatures holding up a little, ie., not getting so cold at night, and winter temperatures a little milder. The evidence points to no significant difference in daytime summer highs, and most high temperature records were set long ago.

      i don’t like reading anything into short term events, and with climate 30 years is too short a period.

      • You would be amazed at the state of market gardens is now, that first to market will reap large financial advantages. People will start sweet corn in peat pots in a greenhouse well before the ground temps hit the 50°F point, transplant through black fabric mulch, then place hoop tunnel greenhouses over the crop rows to protect from frost. People are getting 10 month growing seasons even n zone 6.

    • See all that purple and blue

      That is below zero

      Small warm patch over Kara sea.. MASSIVE cold over Alaska,, Canada, Russia, Northern Europe

      You know… where people have to actually try to live!

      • Why?…. are you incapable?

        I have it in front of me

        “less cold” over Kara Sea and Greenland ( still -30C ), where very few people live

        More FREEZING over Eastern Europe and Russia, where MILLIONS of people live

        But what do you CARE if people freeze to death…. from energy poverty.

        Just make your point about a localised WEATHER event over the Kara Sea..

        That will make you FEEEEEEL GOOOOD.

        You are an evil, anti-human, AGW troll, McClod.

      • Post the same map showing the anomalies Andy – show us that the N Pole is 50 degrees F above ‘normal’.

        That it is above freezing there, that it has been 4 degrees C in Svalbard last week.

      • Tell me McClod, do you live on a dairy farm?

        Because you seem to have your foot in your mouth an awful lot of the time.

        Must be the flavour of your own BS you enjoy so much.

      • “4 degrees C in Svalbard last week”

        Off you go. griff.. out of your granny’s heated basement in your latte sipping ghetto..

        Have a nice hols in Svalbard. :-)

      • tony and Griff:

        Anomalies compared to which “normal”? The Eemian? Or 53 million years ago when the Arctic Ocean was a swamp?

      • It’s a shame that when AndyG55 is given evidence he doesn’t like, he resorts to name calling. If a warmist did that, they’d be off to moderation land.

      • tony mcleod February 8, 2017 at 4:49 am

        Have I insulted you? I think not. I am no expert.

        You have not answered my question. Anomalies from what reference? The Eemian? Or from perhaps 53 million years ago when the Arctic Ocean was a swamp?

      • This colour map illustrates why I am strongly suspicious of reports of record low Arctic sea ice. It’s been wicked cold in the North this winter.

      • myNym
        Anomalies compared to which “normal”? The Eemian? Or 53 million years ago when the Arctic Ocean was a swamp?

        No, something meaningful like a 30 year or a 100 year average.

        Yes, I know, “normal” is a problem for you. But, like, get over it. In the history of planet Earth it’s not “normal” to have any mammals either.

        Gloateus Maximus
        Average T at Svalbard for past 30 days was -9 degrees C. That’s above normal, but still freezing.

        “Still freezing” is not enough when it comes to ice volume. You need prolonged deep freezing for rapid ice formation to build up ice thickness to withstand the melting otherwise you have a net annual deficit.

      • tony mcleod February 8, 2017 at 2:14 pm

        “No, something meaningful like a 30 year or a 100 year average.

        Yes, I know, “normal” is a problem for you.”

        No, I don’t have a problem with “normal”. (Was that supposed to be an insult? If so, try harder. I’m sure you can do better.)

        I just wish that we clearly identify what it is that we should measure “anomalies” against.

        So, you want to ignore the Little Ice Age, the Medieval Warming Period, the Roman Warming Period, the Minoan Warming Period, and the twin peaks of the Holocene Optimum.

        That’s called cherry-picking. You want to choose a “normal” which supports your position, which you are desperately trying to sell.

        Key word is desperately. Trump is going to turn off the money-spigot supporting all the fake science in the US. It’s over. Find another windmill to tilt, another ox to gore, another dead horse to whip. This parrot is dead. It is no longer among the living.

      • No, I don’t have a problem with “normal”.

        Fair enough – “normal” is hardly a perfect standard to comparing anything with, I agree. And no, I’m not setting out to ignore LIAs or Minoan warm periods or cherry-pick anything. I am just looking at the evidence of a rapidly de-icing Arctic and the disruptive effects that is already having on the QBO, the Polar Jet, temperatures in temperate NH: http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/09/unprecedented-disruption-atmospheres-pacemaker-foretells-wet-winter-europe
        with the expectation that this trend is very unlikely to reverse any time soon.

        The current rate of change in CO2 concentration is an outlier. The rate of sea-ice loss is an outlier. If we ceased all carbon emissions tomorrow it ill take 1000 years for level to return to where it was. None of that is “normal”.

        It’s great for those in Ontario to say a little warmer would be nice. But where I live it is hot and getting hotter: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annual/aus/2016/data/map-tmin-decile-year.gif
        For large parts of the world if the trend continues life will get harder. To talk about a new Maunder Minimum is frankly ludicrous.

      • “I’m not setting out to ignore LIAs or Minoan warm periods or cherry-pick anything.”

        But if you focus on only the last 100 years, you are.

        “I am just looking at the evidence of a rapidly de-icing Arctic…”

        The same concerns were raised in the 1930s. During the 1970s the concerns being raised was that the Earth was cooling.

        “The current rate of change in CO2 concentration is an outlier.”

        CO2 is not the cause of either recent warming nor recent cooling. With CO2 continuing to rise, global temperatures have been flat for the last 18 years.

        “The rate of sea-ice loss is an outlier.”

        No such thing. Including the Antarctic, sea-ice has dramatically set new records during the (very brief) satellite record.

        There is no evidence going back 2.6 million years that we are going to lose a significant portion of our sea ice.

    • It really is sad how you alarmists are so bad at basic logic.
      It’s yet another example. Not proof in and of itself.

    • myNym
      “global temperatures have been flat for the last 18 years”
      Right so 100 years isn’t long enough but 18 is? Lets go 19.

      “There is no evidence going back 2.6 million years that we are going to lose a significant portion of our sea ice.”
      Hmm, way off on that one.

      https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/_/rsrc/1483610063766/home/giomas/grf/giomas-year-GLOBAL.png?height=300&width=400

      https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/_/rsrc/1483545127989/home/giomas/grf/giomas-anomaly-all-GLOBAL.png?height=300&width=400

      • If you want to focus on the short term, from 1910 to the late 1930s there was warming. From the late 1930s to 1970s there was cooling. From the late 1970s to the late 1990s there was warming. From the late 1990s to now the Glow Bull temps have been basically flat. All this, while CO2 was going up. If this isn’t a clear demonstration of lack of cause and effect…

        In the short term we should see ice melting. We are in an inter-glacial. During inter-glacial periods, ice tends to melt. Going back 2.6 million years, we have had many inter-glacials, followed by glaciations. There is no evidence that anything happening today is not completely natural.

        The Antarctic ice sheet has hit all time (brief, satellite era) highs. The Antarctic ice sheet dwarfs the Arctic. We should be seeing ice melting, since we are in an inter-glacial. But we are seeing the Antarctic ice sheet grow.

        I see zero evidence that CO2 is causing Glow Bull runaway warming. But then, my income doesn’t depend on such a meme. Does yours?

  16. ‘Locally sourced, sustainably farmed fruits and vegetables’, until the temperature drops below freezing…….

    Lettuce pray for warmer weather…

  17. Let’s not be alarmists in the other direction. It is premature to call one bad growing season in Spain as evidence of a little ice age, just as it was premature to call a drought in California as evidence of global warming. If a pattern emerges over a number of years, then maybe there is something worth discussing. Until then, scepticism should be the watchword of this site.

    • I am with Willis and ADS1972 on this. It is not climate, it is just weather.

      It is not even a bad growing season in Spain. It is just a bad strorm that hit one region in Spain that happens to produce about 15% of all lettuces consumed in Europe. To put things in perspective, here is a map of Spain with the region of Murcia highlighted in green:

      (I hope the link works)

      The lettuces did not freeze. they drowned. A big storm poured up to 240 liters per square meter and many of the fields flooded. 50 % of the production is lost.

      On the plus side, the aquifers are replenished. This is not new, it happens from time to time. It hardly rains in the region, but when it does, it pours.

      You can read more about the storm here, It is in spanish, so you will have to let google translate it for you if you cannot read spanish.
      http://www.laopiniondemurcia.es/comunidad/2016/12/20/exportadores-calculan-han-perdido-mitad/791976.html

      BTW, the spanish region that produces the largest amount of vegetables is not Murcia, it is El Ejido. Here it is a satellite picture of El Ejido taken by Nasa.

      The white rectagles are greenhouses. a sea of greenhouses, stretching for tens of kilometers.

      If you are interested: http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/spaceimages/details.php?id=pia14146

      • See my post above on conditions in Southern Spain. I am in the Costa Blanca North region, about 70 miles away from the place you highlight..

        2016 was a cold year, My swimming pool being some 3 to 4 degC cooler than average.

        The weather has been very bad since November. It is not just one storm, but bad weather for weeks on end.

        I suspect, but I am not certain, that the satellite image shows nets, not greenhouses. Nets over fields is very common in the growing areas of Spain.

      • umm… Richard, As I said in my post, the last picture is not Murcia, is El Ejido (Almeria), located more to the south, close to Africa. Those are greenhouses and the village surrounded by them is El Ejido.

        The BBC produced a documentary about El Ejido and its greenhouses. Worth watching.

  18. Perhaps this is the problem:

    Britain, which imports an estimated 50 per cent of its vegetables and 90 per cent of its fruit.

    Where are all the greenies pushing the ‘100 mile/kilometer’ food wagon (where most of your food is locally sourced within that boundary)?

    England always shows as a verdant land where all manner of food could be grown. Maybe they are not allowed to grow anything between the wind towers?

    I thank my parents for moving us from that place to Australia in 1960

  19. This ‘grand solar minimum’ [which could be a misnomer] cooling arrives because the heat has left from the previous high solar activity heat accumulation from the 1935-2004 solar modern maximum, and because solar activity has slowed down & is now low, after the SC24 solar max.

    ‘Global’ warming, our nice 20th century warmup, extended all the way to last year via the confluence and timing of the OHC build-up from the solar modern maximum and the most recent solar TSI max, which peaked two years ago Feb 6 (daily TSI) this month (in monthly TSI) in 2015.

    Higher TSI during the modern maximum increased OHC as did the SC24 TSI peak, keeping temps up. The OHC maintained SSTs in combination with declining incoming TSI until March 2016, when daily TSI became too low, ie, insufficient energy for further warming, and cooling then began, when falling SORCE TSI crossed below my pre-determined threshold of 1361.25 W/m^2 in mid-March and has remained below that level and has overall declined for all but a few days since, now at 2010 levels.

    Cooling after mid-March 2016 (image dated Feb4 2017):

    This TSI value is statistically equivalent to 120 sfu in F10.7cm solar radio flux, the threshold value for long-term warming and cooling I established in 2014 from HadSST3. Since 2014 I’ve recorded F10.7cm flux and computed the long-term average every day. In 2014, using the spaceweather prediction SSN & F10.7 forecast, it looked as though this long-term average would reach 120.0 in late 2018.

    Lower solar activity than the SWPC forecasted has brought this about over a year ahead of time, and I can report that yesterday, Feb 7 2017, my long-term F10.7cm flux threshold for SST warming/cooling of 120.00 determined in 2014 was reached, now at 119.99 sfu.

    This average was at 120.5 in March of 2016 when temps went negative. So the actual F10.7cm threshold value could be ~120.5 sfu, meaning at <120 now we are definitely in the beginning stage of solar cooling.

    SSTs at this solar cycle minimum should be at a lower temperature than in 2008, because the projected long-term average of F10.7cm flux at the minimum will be about 105 sfu/day, making this a “cooling” cycle.

    By comparison, SC23 averaged 119.8 sfu/day, ~ a “breakeven” amount, and the ending SST in 2008 was just about exactly the same as the cycle starting temp.

    It won’t be much of a ‘grand solar minimum’ if solar activity returns to higher levels and stays there!

    It takes many solar cycles either at high levels to cause warming or vice versa. Things could go either way.

    But until the SC25 uptick in solar activity fires-up the next warming trend, it’ll cool, until 2020-22-ish, with a minor ENSO in between, like in 2006.

    Food production and prices will be severely impacted & energy use will be higher from this low solar activity.

    Full report coming.

  20. In all things manufacturing and farming is built around guessing. Successful manufacturing and farming works best with good guesses. Just now we don’t know if the problem was bad guessing about planted acreage or if yield was the problem. Nobody knows more than I do about what happened with this crop season. I suggest people don’t presume overmuch about the imbalance in product availability. I don’t know very much.

  21. That shortage must be politically organised, or something. Because here in Madrid, we have all the iceberg lettuce and the broccoli we can want, and more.

    • UK has long been called “Treasure Island” by importers because of the higher prices chargeable here.

    • Not where I am, we’ve been gorging on mangos, lychees, amazing stone fruit, etc. There have been some hot dry conditions on the east coast so some vegies haven’t done so well, but otherwise — just like the UK and every other part of the rich west — it’s continued feast. Unlike some parts of the world who do actually have food shortages.

  22. Read the article . Heavy rain made the land unusable. I am a little ashamed of the ‘sceptics’ on this site, some of them. They sound as bad as the warmists. Gloating and absolutely no scepticism.

    • Yes very embarrassing that some don’t read that cold in Italy is also putting strains on supply.

      But that’s ok, Alex, if you don’t read the articles.

    • Alex said:

      “Read the article . Heavy rain made the land unusable. I am a little ashamed of the ‘sceptics’ on this site, some of them. They sound as bad as the warmists. Gloating and absolutely no scepticism.”

      Unfortunately when you become involved in anything that has even the slightest political implications, you find that 80% of the people who show up are there for ideological reasons, rather than any care for the technical details.

      I have some experience in this issue, having a friend who is giving his daughter CBD oil to help reduce her seizures. Much debate over the whole marijuana issue, and people who dismiss the whole thing because it’s the devil’s weed, and a bunch of hippes who are happy to sell the “marijuana for whatever ails you” bullshit. But very little real focus on what really works and what doesn’t, and how do we know the difference.

  23. Really! A cold event in Spain does not mean there’s an ice age coming… or even cooling.

    What is does show is that changes in the arctic air circulation patterns can dump very cold air into areas further south…

    Here’s the NSIDC January summation:
    http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

    “January air temperatures at the 925 hPa level (approximately 2,500 feet above sea level) were above average over nearly all of the Arctic Ocean, continuing the pattern that started last autumn (Figure 2b). Air temperatures were more than 5 degrees Celsius (9 degrees Fahrenheit) above the 1981 to 2010 average over the northern Barents Sea and as much as 4 degrees Celsius (7 degrees Fahrenheit) above average in the northern Chukchi and East Siberian Seas. It was also unusually warm over northwestern Canada. Cooler than average conditions (up to 3 degrees Celsius, or 5 degrees Fahrenheit below average) prevailed over the northwest part of Russia and the northeast coast of Greenland.

    Atmospheric circulation over the Arctic during the first three weeks of January was characterized by a broad area of below average sea level pressure extending over almost the entire Arctic Ocean. Higher-than-average sea level pressure dominated over the Gulf of Alaska and the North Atlantic Ocean south of Iceland. This set up warm southerly winds from both the northern North Atlantic and the Bering Strait areas, helping to explain the high January air temperatures over the Arctic Ocean. According to the analysis of NASA scientist Richard Cullather, the winter of 2015 to 2016 was the warmest ever recorded in the Arctic in the satellite data record. Whether the winter of 2016 to 2017 will end up warmer remains to be seen; conditions are typically highly variable”

    That’s not what happens when an ice age is coming.

    • “Really! A cold event in Spain does not mean there’s an ice age coming”

      Really griff, a weather related event in the Kara sea doesn’t mean there is any AGW.. except by scam.

    • What is does show is that changes in the arctic air circulation patterns can dump very warm air into areas further north… like the Kara Sea

      • yes!

        (Though it isn’t just the Kara)

        And why are we having those changes? Decrease in sea ice and a warming arctic… caused by ???

      • Griff,

        Arctic sea ice is normal everywhere except the southern Bering Sea and the Kara Sea. The Bering is because of the super El Nino and the Kara because of the Atlantic Drift anomaly and possibly warmer air, which is still freezing.

        Those two areas’ lower than usual ice cover has nothing whatsoever to do with CO2. If it did, the whole ice pack would be below normal, which it isn;t.

      • Gloateus Maximus

        What can’t you see the Death Spiral in your picture? Griff sure can! and as we all know once something dies it never comes back so Griff is scared! Oh wait even if his stupid Death Spiral was there it won’t be the first time or even all that unusual and all without CO2 induced warming.

      • Bob,

        True.

        Arctic sea ice is still well above its Holocene average. Humanity flourished during the periods of low ice, namely the Holocene Optimum, Egyptian, Minoan, Roman, Medieval and Modern Warm Periods, and suffered during the intervening cold periods, such as the Greek Dark Ages, Dark Ages and LIA.

        Less sea ice is a good thing.

      • Griff,

        If sea ice be low in the Gulf of Bothnia (which it isn’t), it could not be because of air temperature:

        http://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/weather/Oulu

        Recent weather observation Oulu Vihreäsaari harbour Wed 8.2. 14:20

        Temperature -17.9 °C
        Humidity 83%
        Dew point -20.2 °C
        Wind speed 2 m/s
        Wind direction north-west wind (300°)
        Wind gust 3 m/s
        Pressure 1047.0 hPa

    • Griff, as a matter of interest what does happen when an ice age is coming?

      Oh and we know that global warming can cause more rain and less rain, warming and cooling, but just so everybody is clear can global warming trigger an ice age?

      • What doesn’t happen is that the artic gets warm and the sea ice retreats, surely?

        This article is pointing at a cooling trend (which doesn’t exist) as a cause of Spain’s current weather.

      • Griff, astute readers will notice that you failed to even attempt to answer either of my questions. For your own sake either try harder to engage in conversation or just delete your account.

      • Glacial advances start when CO2 is at its height, due to the warmth of the preceding interglacial.

        The previous interglacial was warmer and longer than now, with CO2 in the 300s ppm, yet it was followed by one of the biggest ice sheet advances, known as the Wisconsin in the US, and Wuerm and Wchselian in Europe.

        Then the Holocene (as with other interglacials) started with CO2 at a minimum, following the bitterly frigid Last Glacial Maximum.

      • GM, poor old Griff was telling us all why this weather is not the onset of an ice age or words to that effect. My question was really asking what sort of weather pattern we should expect to see at the start of the next ice age. Then we can all keep an eye out for it knowing mankind is in deep dudu.

      • Forrest,

        The WX that matters at interglacial to glacial transitions occurs at high latitudes in the NH, where summers become too cool to melt winter snows. A feedback effect kicks in, due to increased albedo from all that whiteness.

      • In Griffies world, any warming event is permanent. Melting ice can never, ever return. (Even though it’s done so countless times before.)
        Any warming is proof that we are all going to die.

      • Griff February 8, 2017 at 3:43 am

        “What doesn’t happen is that the artic gets warm and the sea ice retreats, surely?”

        So…when the earth warms, as per global warming “rules”, it doesn’t warm all over, at the same time, at the same rate. We’re told this by activists because someone always points out that there is still cold somewhere. Its science.

        But you expect that an ice age would cool the earth all over, at the same time, at the same rate. There can’t be pockets of warm…because why again?

    • ‘That’s not what happens when an ice age is coming.’

      The Little Ice Age began roughly around 1250 AD in Europe with increasing iceberg rafting in the North Atlantic, huge sea floods and wild winds.

      Meteorologically I imagine the North Atlantic Oscillation was very negative, which produced cool wet summers and food scarcity.

      The pattern is always the same and in a micro sense its back to the 1950s and 1960s, or perhaps something a little stronger like a centenary Gleissberg.

      • Not so micro! Here in Western Canada we are having a cold , snowy winter which to me is reminiscent of winters in the 60’s when I was a kid. That is half a world away from Europe and nearly a million square miles of ice box.
        My question is, if the world is warming, doesn’t this excess heat have to stick around? It isn’t! This magic, CO2 ratchet doesn’t work!

      • ‘My question is, if the world is warming, doesn’t this excess heat have to stick around?’

        From my understanding the excess heat goes into outer space.

    • Oh dear Griff, but a hots summer does mean that global warming us happening RIGHT NOW doesn’t it?

      Doublethink par excellence

    • This from the guy who’s spent the last 3 months crowing about how the current low ice levels in the arctic are proof that CO2 is going to kill us?

  24. We live in the North East of England. There is NO shortage of seasonal UK produced vegetables. This is alarmist media reporting.

    The only shortage is of some non-seasonal, imported salad varieties.

    If people ate appropriate vegetables for the season there would be few, if any, problems.

    We have grown our own vegetables for over a decade and the biggest lesson we have learnt is to grow a wide variety of crops suitable for our colder northern climate and even grow a variety of breeds of the same vegetable.This helps avoid the entire loss of all our crops even in extreme weather conditions.

    The current cold snap has produced the most wonderfully sweet parsnips :-)

    This is all basic common sense which sadly seems lacking in todays society.

    Of course the EU has not helped by reducing the number of approved varieties, often favouring tasteless junk that give good yields in warm conditions rather than tasty Victorian varieties that cope well in cooler northern conditions.

    • If people in the North of England ate “appropriate” vegetables, then people would suffer from all the various diseases of malnutrition they used to suffer from in the winter. And since the weather could destroy a crop or two – as has happened in Spain – they would then face food shortages, just as they used to,

      • What nonsense!

        There are hundreds of varieties of winter vegetables that grow well in UK. All of them far more nutritional than an imported spanish lettuce!!

        We very rarely eat salad in winter and our family are in perfect health. Malnutrition caused by poverty has nothing to do with a shortage of tasteless imported lettuce or eating a healthy balanced diet of seasonal local produce.

        As for low yield and crop losses due to weather, that is a problem for any crop in any country at any time regardless of whether the planet is warming or cooling and is largely overcome by planning, growing multiple varieties, advances in resistant types, alternate sourcing and better long term storage solutions.

  25. Alex, This has been going on for quite a while actually and began with all the snowfall in Spain. The problem now is waterlogging that is preventing harvesting the remnants of the crops. Maybe it is a good idea to see the whole issue and not wait until you can find one little thing to try and turn the truth on its head.

    • A few events doesn’t mean we are doomed.
      I hear that argument on the other side all the time and just roll my eyes and say it’s weather and not climate. We’ve had a mild winter in the north of China and my wife says it’s global warming and it’s really hot in Australia. Complete and utter nonsense.

  26. We have an advantage that our ancestors didn’t have. We can grow vegetables indoors. link, link There’s no reason for anyone to go without their veggies because of poor growing conditions.

    • 100%! Greenhouses and tunnel farming mean more, cheaper and better food can be available even in difficult growing years.

      • Tunnel farming – That one sneaked up on me. A quick google finds tunnel farming all over the world. The technologies used are pretty old. It appears that folks are finding optimum ways to put the various technologies together to get something that is highly effective, and economical, and suited to local conditions. link

  27. Today in Melbourne, it was 10 degrees C hotter than yesterday. Given that this daily rate of change is 233,333 times faster than 1.5C per century, I expect that this is my last post…..

  28. There has been no real winter here in Iceland this time. Weather has been more like autumn or early spring with very little snow, and temperature more or less above zero °C. We grow much of the vegetables in greenhouses heated with geothermal water and with artificial light during the winter months, so there is no shortage. Of course CO2 (from geothermal wells) is used as a fertilizer in the greenhouses. It may be different in the Europe mainland where the real winter weather is. By the way, thousands of Icelanders travel to Germany, Austria, France and Italy for skiing because of lack of snow here :-)

    • Agust you are at the pointy end of global cooling, a wayward jet stream and blocking highs will do it every time.

  29. Its all just so crazy..
    1. Nobody *eats* lettuce – its just put on plates to look pretty then thrown out

    2. A lot of people, who previously eaten a lot of plant material, will have chronic hypertension and be in considerable danger from heart disease and stroke. If diagnosed, they will be on a blood thinning medication like Warfarin. Thus, they really don’t want to be eating any significant amount of broccoli (or avocados) because of all the Vitamin K in such things – Vit. K being the antidote to blood thinning medications.

    3. What effectively makes lettuce so lovely, green and crisp is the huge amount of nitrate within it. It would be yellow soggy and limp otherwise. Water utility companies in the EU spend *colossal* amounts of money, under legal law direction to minimise the nitrate content of drinking water because it is supposedly bad. Yet lettuce, loaded with nitrate is good. Crazy.

    3.1 You get old or whatever and find your dik doesn’t work too good – you get Sildenafil medication and guess what, it works on the nitrate chemistry within you.

    3.2 You are diagnosed with hypertension. Food experts tell you to eat beetroot to help lower your blood pressure. Guess what, nitrate again.

    4. A BBC program called ‘Harvest’ occurs on an annual basis, 4 (I think) episodes covering the autumn harvesting activities of farmers in 4 parts of the UK. While flashing her fallopians through a pair of spray-on blue jeans and ‘driving’ a combine harvester, the blonde presenter told us that it was ‘fantastic’ (yes fantastic, something to fantasise about) that the UK produced 50% (half) of all the food it eats. Do the 30 million people here with no food to eat think it is so ‘fantastic’?

    5. And as a lot of folks here realise/say – it is alarmism pure and simple. Yet there is huge a huge reaction and the story is blown out of all proportion. Again I suggest, just like when you’re half-asleep and someone prods or shakes you, you JUMP. You get a huge fright and over-reaction to a minor stimulus. And because of sugar in the form of processed starch, almost the entire world is chronically ‘half-asleep’

    • I’m having trouble reconciling your points 1 & 3, Peta.
      How can you be sure lettuce is “lovely, green and crisp”…if nobody really eats it? ;)

    • “While flashing her fallopians through a pair of spray-on blue jeans and ‘driving’ a combine harvester, the blonde presenter ”

      do you need this kind of outdated misogyny to make your point?

      you are right lettuce is inedible

      • Actually, that was a great description. An image created, that 1000 other words couldn’t describe.
        It was a sentence that conveyed a range of things.

    • 1. Nobody *eats* lettuce – its just put on plates to look pretty then thrown out
      Reminds me of Sir William Coleman, one of the first millionaires who made money selling something that people leave on the side of their plate.

  30. Low levels of sunlight caused by Stratopheric Aerosol Geo-engineering; you only have to watch as the lovely blue sky in the mornings is gradually turned into a nasty to a nasty toxic soup; there seems to be 2 sort these days: criss-cross grid pf trails which spread out to form a vaguely uniform off white “cloud”, & the parallel lines that spread slighty to form lines of fluffy whitish “cloud”. For more info. go to the Geo-engineering Watch site

  31. Urederra posts a very interesting image of all those greenhouses in Spain. What struck me was that presumably the infra red radiation goes through the glass and warms up growing conditions but much of the rest of solar radiation appears to be reflected back into space because the albedo effect of greenhouse glass looks like ice.
    What am I missing here?
    Should we – if we believe in AGW – not be building greenhouses like crazy.

    • It’s plastic sheet. If you zoom in with google earth you find it’s not that reflective. Most SW will go through. Of course, a certain amount will be reflected. I’m not sure if it would be aesthetic visually to cover the landscape with plastic sheet, windmills and solar panels. I would prefer to die in The Thermageddon.

    • You may be right…

      ========
      “But 35 years ago, this region in the southeast of Spain was dry and arid, and desert-like, receiving an average of 200 mm of rainfall a year. In fact, Spaghetti western films were once shot here, because the land was so dry and barren. But with imported soil and fully hydroponic systems that drip-feed chemical fertilizers into grow-bags, over the last 35 years, the area has been intensively used for agriculture.

      […]
      Almeria’s sea of white-roofed greenhouse is so vast that researchers from the University of Almeria have found that by reflecting sunlight back into the atmosphere, the greenhouses are actually cooling the province. While temperatures in the rest of Spain have climbed at rates above the world average, the local temperature has dropped an average of 0.3 degrees Celsius every 10 years since 1983.”
      http://www.amusingplanet.com/2013/08/the-greenhouses-of-almeria.html
      ==========

  32. Well, that’s what they get — all those pinwheels and solar panels reducing the CO2 output. (▰˘◡˘▰)

  33. Gotta love the concern trolls with their panties in a bunch over articles like this. The point is, the Warmunists deny all day (and night) long the possibility of cooling because of “manmade warming” aka “climate change”.
    The possibility of cooling is very real though. One scientist who is predicting significant cooling by 2030 is Valentina Zharkova. http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/aug/10/physicist-who-foresees-global-cooling-says-other-s/

  34. Maybe you forgot this map.

    I would not be so quick to cite solar as the cause. It could also be the AMO decline and or other factors or just cold here and not there as the map says.

  35. Kwarizmi neatly confirms what looks clear, whether it is plastic sheeting or glass building greenhouses is a win – win. You use the energy from infra red to grow food, but the heat stays mostly where you want, being converted into food. You can give up crap solar panels which are about as useful as a hamster wheel in a cage for producing energy and in the process stop frying bird life. Unless you really think robbing the poor to subsidize richer house owners with big roofs and unscrupulous solar farmers is a social good.
    One thing Griff is absolutely right about is Kale – you’d be better off eating soggy newspaper, especially if you have had your taste buds removed.

    • Lets start an anti kale club!

      but do note solar panels don’t fry birds… that’s solar CSP – except they fixed the bird frying

      • I really worry about all those who are able to compare kale and the like with cardboard, wet newspaper and the like. What other experiences have they had which we should know about?

    • My brother has a yuge garden in Northern Ontario. Very sort growing season compared to Spain, let me tell you. But he knows what he is doing, does some hydroponic stuff to start his seeds, etc.

      He gave me some kale once (I’m not actually his favourite brother, so no carrots, beans or beets). I tried to make kale chips. Don’t believe everything you read on the intertubes, kids. You can’t.

      One would have to be desperately hungry for a healthy snack, me tell you. Better to empty a bag of potato chips (i.e., “crisps”) and eat the literal bag.

  36. Psst…wanna buy some grain?

    WSJ today
    The Next American Farm Bust Is Upon Us

    Corn and wheat output has never been higher, and never has so much grain been bunkered away.

  37. Hey, why don’t we just grow food in cities? Here in Toronto, there is a very noticeable Urban Heat Island, where we get very little snow now. This of course leads to idiots who don’t actual travel out of the city much: there is snow just a few miles outside of the city, and I spent last weekend frolicking with a puppy and a four year old in a foot of white power (on top of two feet of other snow), just two hours north.

  38. Few think about corollaries these days. ‘If on the other hand the climate warmed up a couple of degrees plus enrichment in CO2, all of Europe would be a Mediterranean cornucopia of produce plenty, lower prices and less spent on heating. Hey, and the beaches of UK would compete for tourists with southern Europe. And the wines! Another Holocene Warm Period anyone?

  39. Few days ago NASA has published the latest total solar eclipse (for the USA) map due on Aug. 21, 2017

    click on the map for more detail of location and time.

    • if a double click on the map above doesn’t provide sufficient resolution for your area of interest there is also Google-map driven interactive website
      https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEgoogle/SEgoogle2001/SE2017Aug21Tgoogle.html
      click on the map provides far more detail, as in this example
      St. Louis
      Lat.: 38.288° N
      Long.: 90.2417° W
      Total Solar Eclipse
      Duration of Totality: 2m23.8s
      Magnitude: 1.009
      Obscuration: 100.00%
      Event Date Time (UT) Alt Azi
      Start of partial eclipse (C1) : 2017/08/21 16:50:05.0 58.9° 143.1°
      Start of total eclipse (C2) : 2017/08/21 18:17:28.4 63.4° 187.4°
      Maximum eclipse : 2017/08/21 18:18:40.3 63.4° 188.0°
      End of total eclipse (C3) : 2017/08/21 18:19:52.2 63.3° 188.7°
      End of partial eclipse (C4) : 2017/08/21 19:44:51.4 55.3° 227.1°

  40. “I’ve been insulted by experts…”

    Tony M, sounds like a challenge. However, you have to give me something to work.

    “Unlike some parts of the world who do actually have food shortages.”

    If you look closely I think you find a surplus of corrupt or inept governments.

    • “If you look closely I think you find a surplus of corrupt or inept governments.”

      Embrace the power of “and,” Kit.

    • “Unlike some parts of the world who do actually have food shortages.”

      I was merely pointing out to those claiming shortages that we in the west don’t really no what hunger is.

  41. Well, something’s going on. What I offer for consideration (and rubbishing, if anyone has real data) is this anecdote:

    I’m outdoors a lot. Across my part of West Kent (High Weald), since at least the last Winter (and I think a little before December 2015, but didn’t make a note), the most frequent wind directions (I hesitate to say “prevailing” as I haven’t had a look at any windrose data) have shifted from W’ly/S W’ly to S E’ly to E’ly.

    This apparent shift is noticeable because (1) far fewer aircraft have been using the Westerly approach to Gatwick (and I don’t recall reading that Gatwick traffic declined this year?); (2) all the 2016 growth on pruned back plants and trees has a distinctly SE to NW “bend” to it; and (3) my daily (cursory I grant, as its a case of “it’s weather, get on with it”) observations of wind and weather while in the fields have been that the wind/weather is E’ly a lot more than “normal”.

    I’m inclined to think (assuming what I note is not a purely local phenomenon, or imagined) that tells us something about what’s happening to the Atlantic sea surface temperatures (AMO?) and to the position of the jet stream.

    • Exactly. see mu comment February 8, 2017 at 5:13 am
      If Maunder type minima are reoccurring events then another one, I would think it is unlikely before some time around 2200.

  42. “However this unexpected food shortage should be a wakeup call to Europe and the world, that there are potential climate problems other than global warming which should occupy some of their attention.”

    It SHOULD, but it WON’T. >:-(

    • The governments won’t take action simply because there is no food shortage!!! The story is fake news.

      It is winter in Europe and it is normal for it to be cold and to have ice and snow. In northern Europe we don’t generally eat salad in winter. Lettuce isn’t even bought for food, it is mainly used as side decoration or to add colour to an otherwise bland sandwich.

      Supermarkets ‘rationed’ imported Spanish lettuce to THREE per person PER VISIT Nobody normally buys three lettuce per visit anyway. The whole story was largely fake and the rest was grossly exaggerated by the Biased Broadcasting Corporation and other MSM who broadcast this ‘news’ as though it was some national disaster. The lower intelligence elements of society then went out and panic bought lettuce thus compounding what issue there was.

  43. “Obviously in today’s connected world, high speed transport will soon solve the shortage in England” (thanks to fossil fuels).

  44. It’s a plot by the health fanatics to get us to eat more greens. As soon as there is a shortage of anything people rush out to buy it whether the need it or not. So having bought the greens, they eat them because hey don’t want to waste what they’ve queued up for!

  45. The deep, expansive cold spells in Siberia over the last 2 years made me wonder if we are on the doorstep of the next GSM. During the first week of this January the coldest part of the cold wave stopped in Eastern Poland. If it had moved another several hundred miles to the west, then Europe would have been severely impacted with -10C or lower temps. That was a close call, imo.

  46. It doesn’t help that the EU is heavily protectionist levying huge import duties on 3rd world producers of fruit and veg. Condemning farmers to poverty.

    Leaving that aside the ‘AGW’ Green Blob happily prevents 3rd world countries from developing adequate low cost energy that would help lift them out if poverty.

    The greatest suffering in this world over the last 100 years is as a direct result of left-wing marxist-socialist ‘liberal’ thinking and dogma.

  47. Meanwhile in the Netherlands the “Elfstedentocht”, the ice skating 11 city river race which only happens every few decades in the coldest winters, came within a hair’s breadth of happening this week:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-16965620

    The officially sanctioned fiction of never ending warming, backed up by falsified climate data, will soon suffer a catastrophic loss of credibility among even the general public.

  48. It seems that, driven by the need to continually support the Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming thesis climate scientists are examining the temperature record at altogether too fine a scale, month by month, year by year. Viewing the Holocene interglacial at a broader scale is much more fruitful, on a century by century and even on a millennial perspective.

    Our current, warm, congenial Holocene interglacial has been the enabler of mankind’s civilisation for the last 10,000 years, spanning from mankind’s earliest farming to recent technology.

    However Ice Core records show:
    • the last millennium 1000AD – 2000AD has been the coldest millennium of the entire Holocene interglacial.
    • each of the notable high points in the Holocene temperature record, (Holocene Climate Optimum – Minoan – Roman – Medieval – Modern), have been progressively colder than the previous high point.
    • for its first 7-8000 years the early Holocene, including its high point known as the “climate optimum”, have had virtually flat temperatures, an average drop of only ~0.007 °C per millennium.
    • but the more recent Holocene, since a “tipping point” at ~1000BC, 3000 years ago, has seen a temperature loss at about 20 times that earlier rate at about 0.14 °C per millennium.
    • the Holocene interglacial is already 10 – 11,000 years old and judging from the length of previous interglacials, the Holocene epoch should be drawing to its close: in this century, the next century or this millennium.
    • the slight beneficial warming at the end of the 20th century to the Modern high point has been transmuted into the “Great Man-made Global Warming Scare”.
    • the recent warming since the end of the Little Ice Age, (Black death, French revolution, etc.) has been wholly beneficial
    • eventually this late 20th century minor temperature excursion will come to be seen as just noise in the system in the longer term progress of comparatively rapid cooling over the last 3000+ years.
    • other published Ice Core records exhibit the same pattern of a prolonged relatively stable early Holocene period followed by a subsequent much more rapid decline in the more recent past.

    As global temperatures have already been showing stagnation or cooling over the last eighteen years or more and as the sun spot record is diminishing substantially, the world should now fear the real and detrimental effects of cooling, rather than being hysterical about limited, beneficial or now non-existent further warming.

    A real tipping point towards cooling and the end of the Holocene interglacial occurred about 3000 years ago.
    This point is more fully illustrated here:
    https://edmhdotme.wordpress.com/2015/06/01/the-holocene-context-for-anthropogenic-global-warming-2/

  49. Tony, isn’t the real issue raised by Edhoskins that we are possibly not long from a return to extremely hostile conditions and that if CO2 really is the cause of the uptick in temperature in Bob’s graph we should be welcoming it – especially as the rise is small over quite a long period.
    Let’s leave aside that the Earth has never gone into a runaway greenhouse as we are constantly threatened with, but most certainly has gone into catastrophic for life ice ages. In the Jurassic period with CO2 at 7000 ppm temperatures were 4C higher. That would be uncomfortable and extremely so in the Tropics accepting for the sake of argument a causal link. But it would be survivable; not so an ice age.
    But so far the argument is about the reality or not of this causal link. At the moment very smart people on both sides of the argument cannot produce an indisputable piece of evidence that shows CO2 is the lever that drives global temperature rather than all the other factors. The rise in the graph you choose to display shows a temperature anomaly over 40 plus years that is not only well within natural climate variation (even within the variation caused by a decently sized volcanic eruption), but arguably within the margins of instrumental error.
    Yet we are being committed to an expenditure of £100 trillion by 2050 which is and will cause incredible damage to the life prospects of billions of the world’s poor on essentially a speculation.
    Last week we heard news that cases of resistance to the latest Malarial drugs now threatens a return of the greatest killer of mankind. (Of course it has never really gone away) That is where I think we should be putting money and in helping poor countries catch up with the richer nations, with all sorts of benefits for everyone.

    If you can show that CO2 really is the danger that is claimed and that if rapidly reducing our emissions could make any difference to the variation in temperature I’d be impressed. In the meantime I think we should deal with the real problems at hand and IF down the line it can be shown we are causing the temperature anomalies then we will be in a stronger position to take concerted action.

    • CO2 was last 7000 ppm in the Cambrian Period, when average temperature might have been 21 °C, or some seven degrees C higher than now. According to IPCC, these over four doublings should have raised temperature more than 12 degrees C. Granted, the sun was four to five percent weaker in the Cambrian, but again according to IPCC, solar activity has a trivial effect on climate.

      During the Jurassic, CO2 averaged an estimated 1950 ppm, with temperature of 16.5 °C, perhaps 3 °C above present.

      These paleotemperatures comparisons are based upon a current 13.5 to 14.0 °C, which is lower than estimates used for anomaly purposes by mad “climate scientists”. According to them, earth must average a mean temperature of around 15 degrees by now.

      In the Jurassic (~155 Ma), solar power was only about 1.5% less than now, and the continents were assuming modern positions, Pangaea having started breaking up, so it may be a more valid comparison than the Cambrian. Even with a high level of ocean heating from active seafloor spreading volcanism, well over two doublings of CO2 raised temperature then less than three degrees from present, yet IPCC imagines that a single doubling would have that effect.

    • In the last few hundred-thousand years, every time CO2 is at its highest level we re-glaciate. How is that for warming?

  50. “especially as the rise is small over quite a long period.”

    Would if it were true. Take a look at the trends on the graph in edhoskins’ link – 0.137C/millenium. I can see the possibility that humans might actually be forestalling the end of the inter-glacial warmth and that would be a good thing in theory – if – we were clever enough to engineer a gentle rise by increasing CO2 from say 280 to 295, then from 295 to 300. That might have been enough for a few thousand years more of Holocene. Who knows.

    Nuh. We’ve dumped 30Gt (so far) into the atmosphere in an uncontrolled experiment which will not end for a long, long time and the temperature is rising at 0.1/decade (so far). Talk about overshoot.

    Its not a small rise over a long period, its a massive rise in the blink of a geological eye. The problem is not change its the rate of change. The climate system is incredibly complex, delicately balanced and somewhat chaotic. Whacking it with a sledgehammer is not going to result in the “cornucopian, plant-food bonanza” many on this site seem to think. Pity, but it won’t.

    • “the temperature is rising at 0.1/decade”

      What are the error bars? Can we accurately actually measure such a small “rise”?

      What was the rise rate as compared to coming out of the Little Ice Age? The last glacial?

  51. Tony, I admire your confidence but wonder if it is misplaced. 30Gt sounds scary but there is a context and that is the planetary rollover of CO2 which occurs naturally and which dwarfs this accumulated total. Heck, we have no real notion of the amount of CO2 churned out by undersea volcanoes every year.
    And anyway the underlying assumption that the planet can’t cope with the addition of CO2 we are making seems dubious. If the planet has survived being whacked by multiple asteroids and comets which instantly raise or lower temperatures by whole degrees in an instant suggests anything, it suggests that a new – not necessarily same – equilibrium is soon established.
    The problem is that all the scare stories we have been threatened with for some thirty years have turned out not to be true. If the increase in CO2 really is increasing temperatures ON ITS OWN then the effects so far are benign.
    But the question stands – can you demonstrate a causal link to justify unbelievably costly actions when we know so little about the complexity of climate.
    Let’s put the money into context – UNICEF Estimated that to eliminate world poverty would cost £17 billion (their figure not mine). Alarmists urge us to spend £100 trillion on a track record of failed to materialize threats.
    And let’s be clear, the money for this is not coming from the people who can most afford it, but from the pockets who can least afford it. Not very credible nor very impressive.

    • “the planetary rollover of CO2 which occurs naturally and which dwarfs this accumulated total”
      Sure, but the atmospheric concentration continues it’s steady rise.

      I wouldn’t say I’m confident – I’m only an amateur and I sincerely hope my concerns are misplaced. There may not be any way to “prove” to the doubters a causal link between CO2 and temperature – until it is too late. But that doesn’t mean we can’t look at all the circumstantial evidence and the risks.

      • tony mcleod February 9, 2017 at 4:51 pm

        Sure, but the atmospheric concentration continues it’s steady rise.

        I wouldn’t say I’m confident – I’m only an amateur and I sincerely hope my concerns are misplaced. There may not be any way to “prove” to the doubters a causal link between CO2 and temperature – until it is too late. But that doesn’t mean we can’t look at all the circumstantial evidence and the risks.

        Thanks, Tony. So … what “circumstantial evidence” are you proposing we look at? You need to show some EVIDENCE for it to be circumstantial … so where is the evidence that out of a million things in a hideously complex chaotic system, the level of atmospheric CO2 is the secret temperature control for the entire planet?

        Next, to me that claim is extraordinary, the idea that CO2 roolz everything. It’s a childish wish-fulfillment fantasy.

        Now, they say, “extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence”. However, in this case you’re talking about, not even ordinary evidence, but circumstantial evidence. At that point, while it is an interesting intellectual exercise, it’s certainly not something to be worth estimating risks on.

        And given that the uncertainties are enormous, what exactly are you claiming about the risks?

        My best to you,

        w.

      • If an accused was seen in the vicinity of the crime at the time of the crime; that is not proof but circumstantial evidence.
        CO2 is a radiative gas. The atmospheric concentration is increasing. In theory the temperature should increase as the atmosphere becomes more opaque to wavelengths associated with CO2’s spectrum. It is. The rise in temperature should mean more water vapour – there is. If it is warmer the ice should melt – it is, Obviously none of that is causative proof but I would argue it is fairly robust circumstantial evidence.

        I’m not saying there are not other explanations some more plausible than others – that is the risk of using circumstantial evidence.

        Your argument about requiring extraordinary evidence is pretty weak because the claims are in no way extraordinary. In fact the “circumstantial” evidence is entirely logical. Pretty basic, garden-variety physics.
        Proof? No.

        To see the accused near the scene and allege guilt is not that extraordinary.

        Anthropogenic CFCs caused the ozone hole. Species loss is partly caused by habitat loss. Milankovich cycles contribute to ice-age formation. Any actual proof?

        Science is all based on balance of probabilities isn’t it? Nothing outside of mathematics is certain.

      • tony mcleod February 9, 2017 at 6:52 pm

        You said (emphasis mine)

        If an accused was seen in the vicinity of the crime at the time of the crime; that is not proof but circumstantial evidence.
        CO2 is a radiative gas. The atmospheric concentration is increasing. In theory the temperature should increase as the atmosphere becomes more opaque to wavelengths associated with CO2’s spectrum. It is. The rise in temperature should mean more water vapour – there is. If it is warmer the ice should melt – it is, Obviously none of that is causative proof but I would argue it is fairly robust circumstantial evidence.

        First, theories are not evidence.

        Second, because correlation is not causation, and because CO2 has generally been increasing for the whole century, your argument applies equally well to say population or hemlines.

        So in answer to a request for evidence, you have provided a theory and a correlation … not working.

        Your argument about requiring extraordinary evidence is pretty weak because the claims are in no way extraordinary. In fact the “circumstantial” evidence is entirely logical. Pretty basic, garden-variety physics.
        Proof? No.

        Claiming that the future evolution of the temperature of an entire complex chaotic system is ruled by the level of a trace gas, with everything else averaging out, is a stunningly extraordinary claim. You only think it is ordinary because you’ve heard it so much …

        To see the accused near the scene and allege guilt is not that extraordinary.

        It is absolutely extraordinary. A crime takes place in a building. There are hundreds of people near the scene. You are seriously claiming we are able to allege that they all are guilty.

        Similarly, there are hundreds of climate variables near the scene—clouds, ocean-atmospheric momentum interchanges, geomagnetic variations, volcanoes, CO2, solar variations … according to you, we can allege that they all are guilty.

        All I can say is, if I’m ever accused of a crime I didn’t commit, I hope you’re not on the jury …

        Anthropogenic CFCs caused the ozone hole. Species loss is partly caused by habitat loss. Milankovich cycles contribute to ice-age formation. Any actual proof?

        Proof? You can’t prove anything in climate science.

        Science is all based on balance of probabilities isn’t it? Nothing outside of mathematics is certain.

        Agreed. But running up to some guy and slapping the cuffs on him because next in line at the bank at the time it was robbed is hardly “balance of probabilities”, is it?

        w.

      • “First, theories are not evidence.”

        You’re not wheeling out the “if it’s only a theory” tactic I hope?

        I’m not saying they are. And there is no ‘theory’ linking CO2 with hemlines, but there is plenty of lab evidence to say it acts as a GHG and satellite data is consistent with that lab evidence.

        “Proof?You can’t prove anything in climate science.”
        No but that doesn’t mean we should ignore the ozone hole for eg.

        So why demand it? Is it true looking at the balance of probabilities? I would say yes. Is it beyond reasonable doubt? I would say yes to that too.

        If the crime was at 2am and you were seen on CCTV at 2:25 then that would be more compelling. However you have an honest face Willis so you might get away with it.

        If, as you suggest, I am premature with my verdict, at what point should I say to myself; on the balance of probabilities it does look like AGGs are the main cause of the warming? How long should I wait? Until next NH summer when we might get a blue water event in the Arctic? Would that swing the balance? If 80 something above average months in a row are insufficient, how many more would be?

      • tony mcleod February 9, 2017 at 9:51 pm Edit

        “First, theories are not evidence.”

        You’re not wheeling out the “if it’s only a theory” tactic I hope?

        Huh? I made a clear statement. Theories are not evidence. You believe a theory that CO2 is the secret control knob for the temperature. I think that’s simplistic nonsense, but more to the point, it is simplistic nonsense for which you have no evidence.

        I’m not saying they are. And there is no ‘theory’ linking CO2 with hemlines, but there is plenty of lab evidence to say it acts as a GHG and satellite data is consistent with that lab evidence.

        I love people who wave their hands and say “satellite evidence” and expect me to be impressed … nice try. I asked for evidence, not rumors of evidence. Does CO2 “act as a GHG”? Of course, but that’s not the question. The question is, does CO2 control the global temperature … and for that, lab evidence is meaningless.

        “Proof?You can’t prove anything in climate science.”

        No but that doesn’t mean we should ignore the ozone hole for eg.

        Since I never said we should “ignore the ozone hole”, that’s a straw man.

        So why demand it? Is it true looking at the balance of probabilities? I would say yes. Is it beyond reasonable doubt? I would say yes to that too.

        Demand proof? I never demanded that you present proof, that’s just your fantasy.

        More importantly, to date you have presented exactly zero evidence that CO2 is the secret knob that controls global temperature, and despite that you say the theory is valid “beyond a reasonable doubt”??? Say what?

        If the crime was at 2am and you were seen on CCTV at 2:25 then that would be more compelling. However you have an honest face Willis so you might get away with it.

        If, as you suggest, I am premature with my verdict, at what point should I say to myself; on the balance of probabilities it does look like AGGs are the main cause of the warming?

        Well, considering that to date you haven’t produced a single scrap of evidence that CO2 roolz everything, you might want to wait at least until the first piece of actual evidence shows up that supports your theory …

        How long should I wait?

        No way to know, since people have been chasing evidence for this theory for decades and haven’t found any …

        Until next NH summer when we might get a blue water event in the Arctic?

        Next summer? You’ve lost the plot entirely. I will bet you $10000 today that the Arctic will not be ice free next summer. Dear heavens, do you know how many fools have garnered nothing but laughter peddling the “arctic death spiral” nonsense? LEARN FROM THE FAILURE OF OTHERS!

        Would that swing the balance? If 80 something above average months in a row are insufficient, how many more would be?

        The global temperature has been warming in fits and starts for about three centuries. At any point in that three centuries you’d find that recent months are above average, and earlier months are below average. Surprising? Not.

        If you think that means something, let me offer you the following list of that and other non-events.

        Best to you,

        w.

      • . “Theories are not evidence. You believe a theory…”

        That statement tells me you really don’t understand what a scientific theory is.

        Apart from not supporting your misapprehensions what could possibly have against “satellite” evidence?

        “lab evidence is meaningless.” Really? Where do you think most scientific evidence is produced?

        I said “No but that doesn’t mean we should ignore the ozone hole for eg.”

        That’s not a straw man, its an example – that’s why I wrote eg.

        I never said Ice-free – there’s your straw man. You obviously don’t pay much attention to the state of the Arctic sea-ice. If you did you would know that it is in an incredibly vulnerable state this freezing season.
        But as with your “global temperature has been warming in fits and starts for about three centuries” statement I see you really don’t know much about the rates things are changing right now.

        It’s the rate of change Willis that is what is unusual.

        You are obviously so invested in your entrenched point of view that you will be unable to look with an open mind and nothing I say will change that. Not that I care.

        Do you ever look at something like this

        and say to yourself: hmm that’s a bit odd? Ever?

  52. “Heck, we have no real notion of the amount of CO2 churned out by undersea volcanoes every year.”

    We do.

  53. Let me be a bit more helpful Griff – some authorities reckon oceanic volcanology probably produces about the same as terrestrial volcanic activity, about 90 billion metric tons of CO2
    But that estimate is surrounded by all sorts of perfectly reasonable caveats to do with the difficulty of observation and all sorts of complicating factors and speculation about the effects of overlying sea depth pressures, where the ridge is located, even possible links to Milankovitch cycles, etc,etc. And while we can make estimates based on the 37thousand miles of volcanic underwater ridges, the vast numbers of individual seamount volcanoes makes it very difficult to claim certainty. It seems clear however that there is the same kind of variation over time between periods of higher and lower amounts of volcanic activity under the oceans as there is above.

    I think caution in making exact estimates is reasonable here but I’m perfectly willing to accept evidence of reliable precision and how it is arrived at.

  54. It’s a first world problem of the poor snowflakes whose whole world collapses if they can’t get a lettuce in midwinter. When I were a lad, we never saw a lettuce in winter, nor even dreamed it was possible. They had better get used to it because the oncoming solar minimum is going to cause shortages of a lot more things than winter lettuces.

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