Guest essay by Eric Worrall
A new study claims that global warming will deliver 4 fewer mild days per year by 2065, and 10 fewer mild days by 2100 – out of an annual average of 74 mild days per year. But the study’s rigid definition of a “mild day”, which the author uses as the basis of speculation about the impact of projected climate changes on human wellbeing, takes no consideration of people’s ability to adapt to different climates.
Shifting patterns of mild weather in response to projected radiative forcing
Karin van der Wiel, Sarah B. Kapnick, Gabriel A. Vecchi
Abstract
Climate change has been shown to impact the mean climate state and climate extremes. Though climate extremes have the potential to disrupt society, extreme conditions are rare by definition. In contrast, mild weather occurs frequently and many human activities are built around it. We provide a global analysis of mild weather based on simple criteria and explore changes in response to radiative forcing. We find a slight global mean decrease in the annual number of mild days projected both in the near future (−4 days per year, 2016–2035) and at the end of this century (−10 days per year, 2081–2100). Projected seasonal and regional redistributions of mild days are substantially greater. These changes are larger than the interannual variability of mild weather caused by El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Finally, we show an observed global decrease in the recent past, and that observed regional changes in mild weather resemble projections.
…
The aim of this study is to investigate mild weather. Mild weather is weather that is neither too hot, too cold, too humid nor rainy–weather that could also be described as being “pleasant”. Mild weather occurs frequently in most parts of the world. It does not disrupt society the way climate extremes do, instead many human outdoor activities are enhanced by or depend on mild weather. Examples of such activities include picnics, football games, dog walks, bike rides, and outdoor events such as music festivals or weddings. Furthermore, the absence of mild weather during construction work, infrastructure projects, road works, landscaping projects, air travel, and rail or road transportation may cause delays with significant negative economic consequences. This relationship with recreational and industrial human activity makes mild weather a relevant meteorological condition for society.
…
Here, we use a global definition of mild weather, based on simple meteorological criteria that should be relatively easy to relate to:
Daily maximum air temperature between 18 and 30 °C.
Daily total precipitation not exceeding 1 mm.
Daily mean dewpoint temperature not exceeding 20 °C.
…
3.1 Present day global distribution of mild weather
The global distribution of days with mild weather in the control experiment is shown in Fig. 1a. Globally, an annual average number of 74 days with mild weather is found; this translates to 20% of all days in a year or, accounting for population density, 89 days per year per person.
…
3.2 Changes in response to radiative forcing
In response to 21st century radiative forcing (RCP4.5), the global distribution of mild weather is projected to change (Fig. 2a). The tropics and subtropics are projected to have fewer days with mild weather; the extratropics are projected to have slightly more days with mild weather.
…
4 Discussion
We have presented the first analysis of mild weather occurrence and projected changes with respect to climate change. The analysis is based on simple criteria that may be refined or extended in future work. Such refinements could include additional variables, for example, cloudiness or wind speed, or by defining spatially or seasonally varying criteria. Furthermore, the uncertainty of the projections related to scenario choice could be part of a future assessment. The current analysis is based on RCP4.5, the projected changes are likely to be larger in response to RCP8.5 that prescribes stronger radiative forcing.
In conclusion, the global mean number of mild days in a year is projected to decrease in response to radiative forcing. …
Read more: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-016-1885-9
To be fair the authors of the study admit that the criteria of the study is simplistic, and suggest future refinement or extension.
But the study’s attempt to infer the impact of projected changes in “mild weather” on human wellbeing ignores substantial evidence that people adapt to their local climate. What people in the tropics consider to be ideal or mild weather is very different to what people in cold countries consider to be mild weather.
For example, a study in 2014 found that the optimum temperature with regard to human mortality was slightly above average temperature, regardless of what that average temperature actually is.
…
- The relative mortality risk for each country is at a minimum between the 66th and 80th percentile of mean temperature. Nine of the twelve countries have an “optimum” temperature between the 72nd and 76th percentiles.
- For each country the relative mortality risk is substantially higher at the 1 percentile temperature (cold end) than at the 99th percentile (hot end).
- Remarkably, the above bullet points hold not only for relatively cold countries such as Canada and South Korea but also the relatively warm ones such as Brazil and Thailand.
…
Anyone who has lived in different climates is well aware of how radically perception of temperature changes in those different climates. I currently live in a warm climate on the edge of the tropics – I start to feel uncomfortably cold when the temperature drops below 70F.
Even assuming the models on which the study is based are correct, the study’s rigid definition of “mild weather” in my opinion makes its impossible to draw meaningful conclusions from this study, about the impact of different climatic conditions on human wellbeing.
The variability of ” mild” is well illustrated by the fact that for us 30 degrees C is uncomfortably hot
Nullschoolearth already shows a misery index…..that should do.
I used to live in one of our northern states. I remember my shock during our first spring there, watching people in tee-shirts, shorts and flip flops walking into the grocery store. While there were still piles of snow in the parking lot.
When I accepted a position in New Orleans and moved down that winter, I enjoyed a terrific drive down. Progressing from snow on the ground to windows open in Alabama enjoying the pleasant weather.
Now my idea of ideal weather, are temperatures that max out in the low seventies, a light breeze and low humidity. Starting out chilly in the wee hours into a bracing morning.
Though I also love leaving the windows open all day while thoroughly enjoying the entire day down in the Bahamas; with temperatures wandering into the eighties and much higher humidity.
My wife prefers days that barely dip into the seventies at night, and staying in the upper eighties the rest of the day.
Anyway, while down in New Orleans, I got up in the morning for work early one January morning, checked the temperature and figured at 48°F degrees, my suit jacket would be plenty warm enough.
Driving down the street, I noticed person after person wearing large fluffy overcoats, with hoods and gloves.
So many people were decked out in heavy winter clothing I figured that I must have the weather wrong.
So, I rolled down the window and stuck my hand out, well my whole arm out and the temperature was definitely relatively warm.
A co-worker tried to explain to me that it is colder with higher humidity. He got to listen to me laugh all the way back to my office.
Mild days are personal opinions, not science.
Especially when people live in places like New Orleans, Bahamas, Southern California, etc.
To me, many of these places have mild days for most of the year.
So when some quack tallies “mild days” they are not utilizing global acceptance of mild days, nor are they recognizing that every latitude and region has their perception of what makes a mild day. Then they start using a falsified climate model to project future mild days.
Multiple fail!
ATheoK, you are so very right when you state that mild days are a matter of personal opinion.
This has been made clear to me many times over the years, when people who are accustomed to climates with differing average temperatures & humidities, come together. Almost invariably, one or other will complain how hot, or cold, it is, depending on what climate they are currently accustomed to living in. Move them to a different climate for a few years, and their responses change.
Many years ago now we had a visitor from Finland coming to our church she was saying how cold she was feeling even though the temperature was nearly 30 deg C warmer than where she lived, I explained that in the UK it was cold and damp in winter and in the summer it was warm and damp but if it was not cold and damp or warm and damp it was just damp.
James Bull
Americanus Arcticus?
The paper is utter drivel and, at best, states the bleedin’ obvious (and even that is assuming that the warming fantasy is true).
Who the hell paid for this “research”?
Oh, don’t tell me…. taxpayers.
It should be confined to the round green filing cabinet.
Indeed.
Filed under A-Z Miscellaneous.
Auto
An “expert” on the local news here in Queensland today said in 60 years the planet will be uninhabitable.
A few more mild days doesn’t sound too bad.
http://www.breitbart.com/podcasts/ ‘
Look for Delingpoles interview with Malcolm Roberts (Australian Senator)
About 9 minutes in.
He quickly describes in his words how the US (AKA Barrack Obama) “negotiated” to get Climate Change onto the G20 Summit in Brisbane.
This is interesting.
Sorry that this may be off subject, but I think we all need to hear Mr Robert’s take on this.
Cheers
Roger
http://www.rogerfromnewzealand.wordpress.com
Meanwhile BBC news last night reporting ‘warmest year ever’ and mentioning 15 of the warmest years have been in the last 16 years…
The arctic is seeing another enormous storm and the world sea ice is at such a record low the line is dropping off the bottom of the chart…
and yet, here we see only things on the fringe of the science getting articles?
Dropping of the bottom of the chart? I beg to differ: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php
It’s true the Arctic isn’t gaining ice, but have you noticed the extreme cold in Europe? The cold has moved, it’s not getting warmer. Many people have frozen to death in Eastern Europe and Moscow is experiencing the lowest temps in 120 years.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/icecover/osisaf_nh_iceextent_daily_5years_en.png
Again McClod comes up with an irrelevant short term graph, totally ignoring any real science showing that the Arctic sea ice was MUCH lower during the first 3/4 or more of the Holocene.
Real history totally DESTROYS the AGW junk-science.
Learn some, McClod, so you don’t continue to look like an ignorant FOOL.
tony troll, your post only graphically shows what Scarface said. It doesn’t dispute it in any way shape of form.
Yes Griff, we need to act right away, before the sea ice begins to recover from a very warm El Nino year and people stop being alarmed. /sarc
So you saw the latest BBC fake news. I suggest you go to http://www.climatedepot.com/2017/01/18/mit-climate-scientist-on-hottest-year-the-hysteria-over-this-issue-is-truly-bizarre-warns-of-return-back-to-the-dark-ages/
Yes Griff I agree with you, the BBC coverage on climate IS dreadful & ill-informed , shame they don’t do any research.
That Arctic storm is pumping MJ out into space & the surrounding areas are frigid
as you can see here – https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-0.57,86.18,407/loc=106.706,65.608
(blue = below 0°C, White = below -10°C, Red = below -30°C,
And yes it is good we can come on here & discus real science (good & bad) instead of being fed politicized science clattrap.
On ice, why are icebreakers being built? An ice free sea ways do not need icebreakers. Why are icebreakers, seriously large icebreakers, being built?
Maybe the Russians know better. And at 1 billion dollars apiece, they are not cheap.
And seriously large icebreakers getting stuck in sea ice up to 2.5m thick
http://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/n0847-icebreakers-make-historic-arctic-voyage-then-get-stuck-in-frozen-sea-on-return-journey/
Griff, By 0.04ºC +-/-0.15C. The error bars are wider than the supposed increase. What I found more interesting were the error bars for the ocean. +/-0.16ºC. Last year they listed it at 0.01ºC. What happened? Don’t say El Nino, that was here last year also.
lee,
So right. Then if you consider those 0.15C error bars are complete fabrications (0.50 is closer to the truth), then none of those “hottest years in X decades” claims hold up at all. With the instruments and methodologies we have been using, we can’t claim to know what the “global average” temperature is within a hundredth or even a tenth of a degree. The satellites are better than the surface networks, but if you include drift over time, they still can’t manage to reduce the error bars down to a tenth of a degree.
The error bars for the oceans are nothing more than the margin of error for the most accurate probes available, plus a margin for the drift since they have been launched.
They assume that less accurate probes (ship water inlets) can be adjusted up the margin of the ARGO probes.
They also give no accounting for the fact that we would need an increase by at least 2 orders of magnitude in the total number of probes to come even close to the minimum number of probes necessary.
Whaddya reckon if solar can’t cut it Griff?
http://www.wattclarity.com.au/2017/01/queensland-demand-today-exceeds-the-previous-all-time-record/
Nukes?
THAT IS FANTASTIC NEWS!!!
Cold kills way more people than heat does, an undisputed scientifically proven fact.
Griff, you forgot to add “in recorded history” to your quote – either that or the alarmist BBC forgot to do so. Remember, compressing the entire history of the planet into a single year, you are using the final 1.6 seconds of December 31 to base that statement on. Between “2” and “1” on the way to “Happy New Year!”, and this is yet one more instance where you do not look at the entire picture.
Crawl back in your hole, troll.
So stop feeding the troll.
@Griff
and yet, here we see only things on the fringe of the science getting articles?
Yeah, strange that. it almost seems that there is an agenda of one sort or another being promoted.
Typical liberal.
Lie about what reality is.
One thing I’ve always found fascinating about liberals is that to a man, they are 100% convinced that they are the center of the universe and that reality must necessarily conform to their desires.
Mark, we have a contemporary isomorphic view of the universe, in which humans are in fact the center. Doesn’t matter where they are, they’re always at the center. Amazing? Yes. True? Well, maybe…
The vapid ignorance of Griff and Tony is on vivid display since Winter ice cover has little impact on the Polar Bears diet, that they ignore the MERIDONAL Jet stream flow,that is the cause of such polar air displacements.
They ignore numerous record cold and snow in many places in the Northern Hemisphere.
Here is a running total they ignored before:
Spain – Heaviest snowfall in 35 years
New Mexico – Healthy snowpack in northern mountains
Snowiest month on record – already – in Gunnison, CO
Several roofs collapse in Oregon under heavy snowload- Too much snow
California ski area headed for snowiest January on record
Lowest temps in Moscow in 120 years – Video
Bangladesh – Cold wave paralyzes life across country
Snow over the top of your head in Russia
India – Shimla struggling with record snowfall
Beautiful Video of record snowfall in Portland, Oregon
Coldest winter on record in Hillsboro, Oregon – 2nd coldest on record in Portland
Record snowfall forces migration in parts of Pakistan
Ski World Cup race cancelled – Too much snow
many more here:
https://www.iceagenow.info/
Griff,
Seriously, why are you so worried about the loss of arctic sea ice? Certainly it’s a benefit to navigation. What’s the downside?
It really is pathetic how Griff actually believes he’s saying something that most of us have heard hundreds of times before.
1) We are still recovering from the Little Ice Age, the world is still way below the average of the last 5000 years.
2) When temperature has been rising, and stops rising, it is still the warmest it has been recently.
3) Pointing out the world hasn’t cooled is not evidence that AGW is real, or a problem if it is.
4) No doubt Griff will keep playing with his new toy for the next few months.
“We are still recovering from the LIA.” Lol, what a vacuous, empty headed reply. That in no way, shape of form explains WHY it is warming. It’s like saying an impending ice age is due to recovery from a warm period.
Chris,
Your reply was the one that was empty headed since you only responded to one of Mark’s four points. Not only that, it IS germane that we are recovering the the LIA since:
1) We don’t know why the LIA happened, except that it must have been natural since it was before major industrialization.
2) We don’t know why the LIA stopped, except the it must have been natural as well.
3) Using Occam’s Razor, the continued increase in temperature is the same unknown cause as #2.
Oh!?
You know “why” it is warming, Chris?
Tell us why the Earth, or regions are warming? Exactly why, with proof.
Not the jumped up climate models started with a host of assumptions and tweaks. Hand waving consensual nonsense is also out.
Nor the overheated GISS dataset; with fat finger freewheeling unexplained undocumented adjustments.
Or the fact that they’ve cut down from 6,000+ temperature stations to a select few. Keeping especially those stations located near large tarmac surfaces, buildings, and equipment and vehicle exhaust.
All for a tiny bump of temperature in an El Nino year. A bump that is well within error ranges, making the claim of “hottest or warmist” year pure opinion.
Read the history of glaciers. Read how glaciers retreated during previous warming cycles, advanced during cooler periods, e.g. “Little Ice Age”, and have been retreating again, in places.
Griff: Yes, it’s warm! But since 1998 it is not getting hotter! If you are referring to NOAA e.a. They have changed the database over time. I.E. lately they added a lot of stations in Siberia. Be sure, such a scientific work would be rejected at every university in Germany!
The BBC are the ones who made Phil Jones admit that not only had it not warmed one whit since 1998, but that it had actually cooled some.
http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2010/02/climategates_phil_jones_confes.html
Just like he confessed to scientist John Christie in 2005: “The scientific community would come down on me in no uncertain terms if I said the world cooled since 1998. Ok it has but it’s only seven years of data and it isn’t statistically significant.”
Than after they demoted his thieving, fraudulent ass, three years later the Met Office – ultimately the people who are the consumers of Jones’ faked pseudo science –
issued their own presser noting three papers they wrote noting how – JUST like JONES SAID: temperatures hadn’t been growing ever warmer, but had been ‘relatively flat.’ (Mild cooling)
As recently as 2013 they confessed in their own presser: there’s been no warming globally for fifteen years previous to 2013 – exactly what Phil Jones had CONFESSED, TWICE: and they’d written THREE DIFFERENT PAPERS explaining how
it hadn’t warmed since 1998, there’d been a PAUSE in GLOBAL WARMING.
Since 1 9 9 8.
And you’re in here barking your lunatic badge of stupid about how the sky keeps getting hotter and hotter.
No, it isn’t, you’re just an incompetent
incapable of determining whether it’s getting warmer or colder, as an unsupervised adult.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/recent-pause-in-warming
You’re a fraud barking fuit-loop Griff.
If you say it: it’s bound to be fake, fraudulent, falsehood.
Yes
It seems that there’s no more snow to be had in Europe
https://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/08/opinion/sunday/the-end-of-snow.html
Someone forgot to mention it to the weather gods though…..
http://www.b92.net/eng/news/society.php?yyyy=2017&mm=01&dd=09&nav_id=100180
http://www.novinite.com/articles/178250/Cold+Weather+Alert+throughout+Bulgaria+on+Monday
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-09/europes-cold-winter-weather-leaves-more-than-20-dead/8169122
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/news/cold-weather-canada/
Another piece of useless non-information but well spotted again by Eric.
It’s enough to make you spit blood.
These people need to be boiled in oil or better still, forced to give their services and all that grant money to the poor.
“a global definition of mild weather”
“Daily maximum air temperature between 18 and 30 °C.
Daily total precipitation not exceeding 1 mm.
Daily mean dewpoint temperature not exceeding 20 °C”
WTF
I live in UK, its winter, gray & overcast, no wind, 8°C; considered very mild for the time of year.
That definition describes a hot summer for us.
“A new study claims that global warming will deliver 4 fewer mild days per year by 2065, and 10 fewer mild days by 2100 – out of an annual average of 74 mild days per year.”
So, to prevent 4 fewer mild days per year over the next 50 years, I’m supposed to give up my air conditioning or use expensive and less reliable renewable energy to cool and heat my home? Economical cooling and heating allows me to turn the other 291 days that are uncomfortable into mild, comfortable days inside my home. So why would I want to suffer for 291 days just to prevent 4 mild days from becoming a little less mild? That does not compute, especially if you consider that affordable air conditioning and heating can also mitigate those extra 4 days should they actually become less mild.
If this was supposed to convince me that climate change will be catastrophic, it failed. The only thing that will be catastrophic is if they succeed in banning the use of fossil fuels. It makes you wonder if they think that people would prefer to die from hunger and cold rather than risk becoming a little less comfortable for 4 extra days a year?
Hello, Griff–surely you know about the temperature “adjustments” of past records to make the current years appear warmer by contrast; more of the heat records in the US were set in the 1930s (especially 1934 and 1936) than in any other decade. The “warmest year ever” can’t account for anything before the satellite information was available, i.e., 1979; and 2016’s warmth, such as it was (below average here in Virginia), was largely a product of a strong El Nino for much of the year. As for sea ice, the Arctic is covered more completely and more deeply than in several recent years, and the Antarctic continues to set records for area and depth of ice. I’m not sure what charts you are seeing, but those that I have seen do not support your statement.
Having said all that, I would also say that slightly warmer winters would be a godsend here. The recent 8″ of snow was blessedly light and easy to move, as well as imparting welcome moisture to the ground; but even so, I had to do some shoveling, which at my age is not recommended. Further, Richmond recently endured a record cold for the date of 0 degrees F, while Petersburg recorded -8 on two consecutive days (I don’t know what the record is there; I only have tables for Richmond, 25 miles north of Petersburg).
Yes, the climate has warmed slightly since much of Hampton Roads iced over in the winter of 1862, permitting the Confederates to lay railroad tracks and run trains across the ice from Norfolk to Portsmouth. I’m thankful for that warming.
“As for sea ice, the Arctic is covered more completely and more deeply than in several recent years, and the Antarctic continues to set records for area and depth of ice. I’m not sure what charts you are seeing, but those that I have seen do not support your statement.”
Which ones have you seen? Sure they’re not from 20 years ago?
tony, tony, tony.
Why do you feel the need to embarrass yourself so regurally.
You admit that coverage of the arctic in recent years has improved greatly.
Yet you continue to whine about how conditions today are different from the past.
If past records are of lower quality, how can you say with certainty that current conditions are different from the past? As you have pointed out, we don’t know with much certainty what the past conditions were.
As always, you try to present your favorite “fact” completely free of facts. Such as the well known fact that AMO/PDO/El Nino all impact how much ice there is in the arctic.
Well, since the NSIDC and DMI graphs are now based on models.
It’s all relative. Here’s a Canadian temperature guide from http://www.upalong.org/newfiejokesDb.asp?id=10
* 70 above (+19 deg. Celsius): Texans turn on the heat and unpack the thermal underwear. People in Canada go swimming in the Lakes.
* 60 above (+14 C): North Carolinians try to turn on the heat. People in Canada plant gardens.
* 50 above (+9 C): Californians shiver uncontrollably. People in Canada sunbathe.
* 40 above (+4 C): Italian and English cars won’t start. People in Canada drive with the windows down.
* 32 above (0 C): Distilled water freezes. Lake Superior’s water gets thicker.
* 20 above (-6 C): Floridians put on coats, thermal underwear, gloves and woolly hats. People in Canada throw on a flannel shirt.
* 15 above (-8.5 C): Philadelphia landlords finally turn up the heat. People in Canada have the last cookout before it gets cold.
* 0 degrees (-18 C): People in Miami all die. Canadians lick the flagpole.
* 20 below (-26 C): Californians fly away to Mexico. People in Canada get out their winter coats.
* 40 below (-36 C): Hollywood disintegrates. The Girl Guides in Canada are selling cookies door to door.
* 60 below (-46 C): Polar bears begin to evacuate the Arctic. Canadian Boy Scouts postpone “Winter Survival” classes until it gets cold enough.
* 80 below (-56 C): Mt. St. Helens freezes. People in Canada rent some videos.
* 100 below (-66 C): Santa Claus abandons the North Pole. Canadians get frustrated because they can’t thaw the keg.
* 297 below (-164.5 C): Microbial life no longer survives on dairy products. Cows in Canada complain about farmers with cold hands.
* 460 below (-246 C): ALL atomic motion stops (absolute zero in the Kelvin scale). People in Canada start saying, “Cold ’nuff for ya?”
* 500 below (-266 C): Hell freezes over. The Toronto Maple Leafs win the Stanley Cup.
All points were believable until that last one.
The Maple Leafs would still choke.
* 297 below (-164.5 C): Microbial life no longer survives on dairy products. Cows in Canada complain about farmers with cold hands.
LOLOL
Well, time for a new keyboard, this one is covered in coffee due to sipping while reading ……
20 above (-6 C) – mine is plaid ……
You can place your keyboard in the dishwasher, rinse only cycle. Don’t use the heated drying.
Let us know how it turns out.
Rinse in plain cool water under the tap.
NB: This is only required if sugar, cream or creamer is added to the coffee. Black coffee without adulterants does not leave anything destructive after evaporation.
The best quick water absorbing towels are those microfiber cloths used for polishing cars. Super warm microfiber shirts and stuff work great.
Just damp off as much water as possible. Hint, wrap the keyboard in the microfiber and rap it on counter edges with the key side facing down.
Then leave the keyboard where it is warm and dry, e.g. heating vents. Do not leave it where temperatures get too hot, e.g. incandescent light bulbs.
The key board will work fine. i.e. so long as all sugar and dairy residues are rinsed off thoroughly.
Keyboards are easy. Then, there is the time my brother spilled heavily sweetened tea in my stereo receiver/amplifier…
I figured it out by the sticky sugar film on a record (yes, archaic 33rpm vinyl). He claimed he was going to tell me… We did rescue the entire set, just no music for a long while.
I got even. I told him not to play the “Pink Floyd: Careful with that axe” album loud.
A few days later, he had quite a few bruises from trying to get to the sound control after the scream started. Like many Pink Floyd listeners, he was positive the police would investigate.
Do you people still rent videos?
I heard E.T. is a good movie. Have you rent it already?
😛
I was left steaming mad last night when listening the the BBC driveling on about “The hottest year eva! & unabated global warming & heat waves in the arctic!”.
When the H*** are we in the UK going to get balance back in the media I’m going insane listening to it.
Too hot/cold/mild/weird/ice/no-ice in Europe..One supplier said that a combination of flooding, cold weather and poor light levels had created a perfect storm of poor growing conditions.
And didn’t Auntie Beeb feel sorry for the Poor Little Rich Kids at Davos.
In Southern Spain, I regularly checked the temperature, and the majority of the year was about 2degC cooler than average. My swimming pool struggled around 31 degC whereas in July?August, I expect it to be 33 to 35degC. I would expect late July to mid August to see 34deg C (plus) temperatures, So this suggests that the summer was about 3 degC cooler than most years.
Of late, it has been very wet, and indeed presently very cold. The next 10 days forecast is 8 (today), 10, 9, 8, 9, 11, 10, 11, 11,12 deg C. The average high for this time of year is listed as 14degC. Thus it is the best part of 4 degC cooler than the average for this time of year.
In Torrevieja (Alicante, Spain) it snows 103 years after the last snowfall.
http://www.lainformacion.com/espana/directo-temporal-ola-frio-siberiano_0_991401116.html
Funny thing. The schools were closed and kids went to the beach to play in the snow. I don’t get the logic behind this. you cannot go to school because is so cold but you can go to the beach to play in the snow? or it is just that it was going to be the only chance for many kids to play in the snow at the beach and that is why the authorities had to close the schools?
Anyway, it reminds me of a Bradbury’s science fiction short story about a school in Venus where it was always cloudy and raining except for one day when the clouds receded and, sun shone and the children could play outside for first time.
I just googled it. The title is All Summer in a Day.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All_Summer_in_a_Day
I loved it. One of the best short stories I have ever read.
Here in Scotland anything above 16C is mild (there is no effective upper limit). Indeed, it can easily be 12C in summer (and indeed sometimes 12C in winter). Rather than “mild” weather, we get fed up of “mild” weather (~14C) and instead dream of “hot” summers of 18C or cold winters with snow.
The first “mild” is what this article means. The second “mild” is when we’d use the term (usually in spring or Autumn) to mean a good spring/Autumn day.
Come on Scotty be reasonable, I live in Wales and last summer both days soared to 17c for an hour or so.
On Anglesey we had continuous sunshine from dawn to dusk….
…but with lots of cloud in front of it.
Well I lived in Indonesia and Singapore for a lot of years and there was a lot of sport played in each of those frequent non mild days. Actually I practiced Taekwan-Do, played Rugby, squash and tennis without it killing me. My sons participated in soccer and athletics, also. There is a Scottish rock group, whose name, “Simple Minds”, might be used to describe these authors.
Currently working in Laos, warned this morning by locals to wear a jacket at night, night time low 21c, its winter here. Wife back home in New Zealand is complaining about the 160kpm wind storm last night and the 5c max they had in Wellington last week in the middle of summer. Weather is weather and what is “MILD” to one is extreme to another. I doubt that anywhere in the world people would notice a slow change to less milder weather, its just weather.
Well, I for one think we need to reflect on this new threat we face, CAGDM (Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global De-Milding) seriously. If that isn’t a reason to destroy our economies and live in dark, cold mud huts eating twigs and grass I don’t know what is. I mean, think of the children.
“I mean, think of the children.”
That’s illegal….besides I found out that when you eat a whole one you get indigestion (:-))
Depends on whether you have cleaned them properly.
When the subject of calamitously low sea ice is brought up by the usuals I sometimes go and have a small peek here http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/ Not very rigorous and scientific I know but nevertheless scientists often try to get an initial handle on the magnitude of a problem before proceeding further. What I invariably get from The Cryosphere Today is ‘oh look, there’s a big phat ice cap at one end of the globe and ‘pon my soul, there’s another one at the other end’. Sometimes I go and look in the archives to see what it was like for the time of year at different times back in the satellite past and what I get there is ‘oh look, it looks pretty much the same as it does now’. Outrageously simplistic?
The “vanishing sea ice” meme is the Alarmists’ last-ditch effort to save their crumbling ideology. Our resident trolls harp on it because it’s basically all they’ve got (or think they have), and because it’s their way of thread-bombing any discussion. Historically, we know that Arctic sea ice waxes and wanes in response to a number of variables, some known and some unknown, but it primarily seems to have to do with what ocean temps happen to be doing and which cycle they are in.
How is the Arctic doing at the moment Bruce?
Thanks to the recent El Nino, it is down a tad. It will recover as the AMO and PDO switch to their cold cycles and the El Nino continues to fade.
Just as it has done every other time over the last few hundred thousand years.
Looks great Gareth!
And acclimatization does not take very long. I had a co-worker who served in the merchant marine during WWII and grew up on a farm in eastern Washington, where it gets quite cold during winter. After being in the south Pacific for about 6 months he was on leave in Seattle at a time when the temperature was in the 50s (F). He told me he was so cold and shivering so badly he hat to sit bundled up on the couch wearing a parka when a mere 6 months earlier he would have been comfortable just wearing a shirt.
When he related this story to me we were working in Connecticut, so he had obviously gotten used to real winter again.
Mr. Watt, I beg to differ, ….. , somewhat. I lived in Malaysia for a little over two years and never truly got acclimatized to the climate (which was absolutely fantastic by the way). Mind you I could not get out of the habit of “walking-like-a-Canadian-in-winter” mode, just couldn’t slow down while walking!
My circle of friends described the acclimatization process to me very well: It is not a matter of acclimatizing, more a matter of “getting used to” of “accepting” the constant perspiration ……
“Acclimatized to the climate” …… wow, brutal English!!!!!!
That’s the first time I’ve heard someone refer to the English as brutal.
“Daily total precipitation not exceeding 1 mm” is typical of the arid western mountain states of the US, but would be considered a severe drought in other regions.
BTW, notice the purple flag at the lifeguard stand, dangerous marine life in the water. Most likely jellyfish or rays.
The idiotic and propagandist CBC jumped on this garbage yesterday…
Never underestimate a leftist organization (CBC etc..) and a warmists desire to dive into the deep end of the cesspool in order to promote JUNK SCIENCE- Fake climate news, past, present and future!!!
Anyone who makes a prediction about a far off future under the assumption of “business as usual” 80 years from now can only be characterized as an incredibly dense loonie. Anyone with two eyes can see that energy generation and usage technology is in for BIG changes, and BOTH fairly close at hand, in the form of moltens salt reactors and electric cars. Peter Thiel, Trump advisor is a major investor in Transatomic Energy , one of the players in the molten salt arena, so one can expect action by the incoming administration. Obozo’s braindead administration poured untold millions into basically, low carbon crap technologies, like wind and solar, while underfunding the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and, worse yet, requiring the submitter to pay all costs for the NRC’s VERY expensive, VERY slow approval process. And things aren’t any better on the electric car infrastructure arena, either. We have another VHS/Betamax situation here, with Tesla Motors building supercharger stations using super fast charging technology that differs from that proposed by GM and other automakers. Ironically, Tesla offered to allow any others to use their technology, but of course, in the automtove world , proprietory is the means of establishing monopolies,
so their offer was not taken up by any others, to my knowledge. Here is one place where a Federal govt is required – to establish national standards (which would also be international as well) for
fast charging technology. This won’t cost the govt anything, but then, they need to have some intelligent thought to do this. Probably that’ll doom it. For an administration that claimed it was helping the technology (by obscenely giving millionaire Tesla buyers $7500 govt subsidies) ,
Obozo and his braindead advisors apparently never considered the fact that charging stations and their attendent tecnology would be required.
Uhh… yeah. And I would add nonsensical.
Mild weather is relative to locale and not a global absolute pulled out of someones behind. Interesting that forecasting 80 years into the future (crazy enough) based on a nonsensical premise is taken as a scientific endeavor.
If I remember right there is more than 1mm rainfall almost every day in Hawaii. So is Hawaii by this definition an extreme climate with no mild weather?
Mr Warroll writes;
“Anyone who has lived in different climates is well aware of how radically perception of temperature changes in those different climates.”, which is certainly true, but further, I can tell that as our hot summers fade, the very same temps can feel chilly to me, that seem quite comfy as our cool winter fades . . and vice versa.
Hello, we live in a retirement village in Gawler, South Australia, ages range from 75 to 95, oh so vunerable people, Hi. Yesterday the temperature was 36 C, today its 26C with rain and a very cold wind.
So how many died overnight, none of course, its what we are used to, its called Summer.
Australia is a land of heat and cold, flood and droughts, its all normal.
Michael
@ Gareth Phillips January 19, 2017 at 7:10 am
How is the Arctic doing at the moment Bruce?
Seriously large Russian icebreakers getting stuck in sea ice up to 2.5m thick Jan 2017
http://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/n0847-icebreakers-make-historic-arctic-voyage-then-get-stuck-in-frozen-sea-on-return-journey/
Can’t be. You can cross the Arctic in a canoe and not find enough ice to chill your vodka martini. (Shaken.)
Or so I’m told.
“Slightly Less Mild Weather by 2065”
We are totally doomed!
Think that maps say it all:
https://www.google.at/search?client=ms-android-samsung&ei=npaDWMntMoKqsgHqq77oDw&q=death+rates+by+country++maps&oq=death+rates+by+country++maps&gs_l=mobile-gws-serp.3
v’
Even assuming the paper’s definition of “mild weather”, I find their conclusions non-credible. Consider – according to their definition, mild weather is essential for activities such as construction. Add their claim that there are only 74 such days (on average) and you must conclude that construction can only possibly happen during about a 2 1/2 month period. Yet we know from everyday observation that construction occurs over a period closer to 2/3 of the year.
Assuming they are talking about American Football (plausible, I think, since all three authors are based in the US), they picked a game that is notorious for going on no matter what the weather is – a game that is played only rarely in their ideal conditions. How many SuperBowls do you remember being played above 64F?
The claim of less mild future weather is actually a claim against the pattern of temperature observations over the past centuries. The records show a steady decline in Tmax and a stronger rise in Tmin, evidence that temps are increasingly mild.
https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2016/09/16/its-not-hotter-its-milder/