Having just finished one storm, another atmospheric river storm is possible for California next week. Details are uncertain this far out, but the system could bring heavy rainfall, higher snow levels, gusty winds, and renewed flooding concerns.
From the NWS forecast discussion:
Dry weather continues into Monday as high pressure aloft brings slightly warmer than normal temperatures. That will quickly come to an end however, as the next atmospheric river takes aim at the
West Coast. The plume of moisture will initially be aimed at the Pacific Northwest, but confidence is increasing that the firehose will shift southward, bringing another round of moderate to heavy precipitation to Northern California midweek. Given the already high river/creek stream levels, flooding will continue to be a problem if this pans out.
If this was last year the alarmists wouldn’t have been able to contain themselves with the “godzilla” of an El Nino. By every metric in climate science (except natural variation) this should be another year of our permanent drought. They can’t even get local forecasts right. Here in Socal 3 weeks ago we had a 1/2-1inch (which is a lot locally) where they forecast drizzles. OOOPS
“… next week. Details are uncertain this far out”
You’ll never make Climate Scientist with stuff like this 😉
The good news today is that officially only about 60% of the state is still suffering drought conditions. Compare that to 97% a year ago and the improvement is obvious. The National Weather Service reported that areas of California and especially the Sierra Nevada mountains received from 20% to 50% of the annual precipitation for the entire season in just the last week. They also said that enough water flowed into Oroville Lake the first 10 days of January to provide all of Los Angeles water for an entire year.
The 0z GFS shows this next system coming in a little later but still with plenty of moisture.
Thanks for the heads up Anthony. You’ve become one of my trusted forecasters and I’m in the middle of this.
Did you know that cold rain followed by by a short warm dry period is very good for mushroom hunters? Well, if you didn’t know you do! So Monday looks to be a great day for mushrooms!
Thanks again for keep us posted and Best Regards!
I can’t believe I actually corrected “now” to “know” in the above. Oh well…
@accordiansrule
Pacific Potfields Pancaker LMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I love the irony that California ski resorts are closed due to to too much snow: http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2017/01/11/ski-areas-closed-heavy-snow/96452200/
Good Grief!
https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2017/01/12/northeast-will-experience-faster-warming-from-climate-change-new-study-finds/nitce6eK8zqQN2LXZXgvwK/story.html
Always ahead of the crowd, overthere in Boston. Or what?
This might come back to haunt him “I tell my students that they’re going to be able to tell their children, ‘I remember when it used to snow in Boston,’
West coast farmers will be singing in the rain.
Reminds me of the lyrics to an old song:
“Seems it never rains in southern California
Seems I often heard this kind of talk before
It never rains in California
But girls don’t they warn ya
It pours, man it pours”
Albert Hammond – It Never Rains In Southern California Lyrics
More heavy to excessive precip on the way to most of the West Coast later next week:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1484354810later
How long will this pattern last?
Looks like a pattern change during the last week of January. An upper level ridge builds in the Western US, diverting the Pacific jet stream northward (so it will no longer be aimed, west to east at the West Coast) as an upper level trough digs downstream in the Eastern US, which could be the new target for cold air masses late in January into early February vs the near record warmth focused on that area this coming week.
This is also suggested by the experimental 3-4 week forecast outlook tools.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34prcp.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34temp.gif
All I want to know is with all this water coming onshore will the seas recede in time for Obama Legacy.
Too bad the Califruiti Greenies took down 500 water impoundmets,i.e. damns, that they said were unneccessary to control flooding that would never come. Reality has intruded…
A very large stream of TPW is currently moving into position to impact the West Coast. This stream has surged across 45 degrees longitude since the 13th of this month. Of the three streams of TPW that have moved to where they could impact California to Washington over the last 2 months, this one is huge by comparison. It is staying highly concentrated so far. The highest concentration in the stream is 56.5 kg/m2. Whereas the rain that California has seen over the last several weeks has been coming from streams with half of that water content. Now it is only a matter of whether or not the concentration gets reduced by mixing and raining out over the ocean before arriving here. The forecast for 40N is for 5 days of snow starting next Friday. It will be interesting to see how this unfolds. …https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=total_precipitable_water/orthographic=-161.81,25.80,497/loc=-178.813,27.431
Where’s that big storm?
Much closer then when I marked the eastern point of the stream from the 13th. Three days and around 35 degrees longitude closer. It is currently around 20 degrees longitude away, and that fits in with the Intellicast forecast for the next rain chance, 100%, on Wednesday. …http://www.intellicast.com/Local/Weather.aspx?location=USCA0307
That looks like a big incoming storm to my eyes, from both earthnull and Intellicast point of view.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=precip_3hr/orthographic=-121.99,31.25,802/loc=-114.386,10.431
Incoming….
That is mesmerizing.
Doesn’t it look like it’s mainly north of here?
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/storms-to-pummel-california-with-flooding-rain-snowy-mountain-travel/70000574
“Thus far this season, Mammoth Mountain ski area in California, has received 248.5 inches of snow with 144.5 inches falling this month, as of Jan. 16, at the main lodge,”
.