Hurricane Matthew is a Category 4 storm at the moment, that makes it very dangerous, and (if it makes landfall) something we have not seen in the continental United States for a over a decade. Surprisingly, just today, we passed the 4000 day mark for a drought of major (Cat 3 or greater) hurricanes to make landfall on the continental USA.
Hurricane Wilma was the last major hurricane (Category 3 or stronger) to hit the U.S. It made landfall in Florida on October 24, 2005. The much ballyhooed Hurricane Sandy was Category 1 at landfall, and technically not a hurricane at that time, but an extra-tropical cyclone. Hurricane Ike in 2008, was a Category 2 when it made landfall.
Matthew is very likely to be the first major hurricane to strike the U.S. in almost 11 years, the question is will it be Florida, Gerogia, or the Carolinas?
Wednesday, October 5th, yesterday, was the 4,000 day mark after Hurricane Wilma’s landfall, or 10 years, 11 months, 12 days including the end date. Source.
Will all that, obviously activists will try to link it to global warming/climate change. at NBC, they already believe that the recently ratified Paris climate accord will stop such storms. Elsewhere, Thinkprogress serial doomster Joe Romm is saying his usual unsupportable schtick:
I’m not even going to bother with a link, his article is so bad…
Marc Morano noted [an article from David Kreutzer Via: http://dailysignal.com/2016/10/06/hurricane-matthew-is-deadly-serious-but-hurricane-hype-is-overblown/ ] at Climate Depot that there will be a lot of “scientists say we can expect,” but little actual data.
He’s right. [Kreutzer] adds:
That’s because the data show for the last 10 years we have had an unusual drought of landfalling major hurricanes (Category 3 and higher) on the continental U.S. That’s right, no major hurricanes have made landfall for over a decade. This is the longest such drought on record.
A lot of it is luck. There have been major hurricanes in the Atlantic whose paths have not taken them onshore. However, there has not been the steady increase in hurricane activity that the doom-and-gloomers predicted following a swarm of major hurricanes in 2005. Yes, there is a lot of change from year to year, but there is no worrisome trend.
In fact, taking a tally of the scariest hurricanes (Categories 4 and 5) indicates things were worse nearly a century ago. For the 44 years from 1926 to 1969, 14 of these most powerful storms made landfall, while the 46 years since then had only three.
Dr. Philip Kotzbach notes:
Only 1 hurricane as strong as #Matthew (140 mph) has made direct landfall on Grand Bahama Island on record (1935 Cuba Hurricane). pic.twitter.com/SUM48dvJWT
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) October 6, 2016
So what caused that stronger storm back then?
Dr. Ryan Maue also had some advice:
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/783784160871780352
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/783685839142449152
Remember that, when the climate doomsters try to convince you that this is all “climate change” driven.
Note: about 16 hours after publication, we were notified by Marc Morano at Climate Depot had not made attribution to the article by David Kreutzer, leading us to think those were Morano’s words. Morano has since corrected his copy, and we have corrected ours to give proper attribution – Anthony
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And if the eye (center of the storm) doesn’t cross the east coast of the USA, will they still call it an epic storm? Probably…caused by coal power plants, and your SUVs…
US hit by 7 hurricanes in 1886 – caused by coal power plants and SUV’s:
http://realclimatescience.com/2016/10/americas-busiest-hurricane-season/
sssshhhh – don’t mention the SUVs
I don’t think the timing is a coincidence that Algore is now out campaigning for Hillary and trying to convince younger voters about climate change. He was probably hoping for the direct hit of a monster on Miami/Ft Lauderdale.
MJ,
H3ll, with the Algore effect, this might be the first hurricane in history that drops snow!!
That’s precisely what he was hoping for. The media are in a tizzy about this, reporting it as though millions will be dead by noon. Some clown on TV named Shemp actually said “Your children will die!”.
It’s all political. I overheard that awful George Snuffaluffagus on TV asking the Gov. of Florida why he wasn’t going to extend voter registration on account of the storm. Very revealing.
With all the media coverage, it’s a certainty they will claim a weather event is climate change.
Is just political hype – it’s an election year ; )
It’s also media nonsense attempt to save face – cat landfall with wind devestation turns into tornadic Sharknado Impact turns into “it’s all about storm surge”
I love B films : )
Tune into “Natioal News” for more fun “science”
You mean the global warming that since 1997 is statistically indistinguishable from none?
Cyclone Matthew is caused by global temperature that is 0.3 deg C colder than 1998? How come it didn’t happen then? Q. If we reverted civilization to 1880 levels would we manage to stop cyclones? Oops, computer says NO (see the chart)
My Bull$hit detector is ringing at full volume.
WHAT “global warming” since 1997? My Bull$hit detector is ringing at full volume
I read a well researched article recently that confirmed that significant funding for Al Gores global warming – (CAGW) education was funded by George Soros. Mr Soros appears to have a long standing record of buying and influencing results internationally for self and financial interest.
George Soros has said publicly and in written form that he wants to “destroy” (bankrupt) the United States of America. I can’t find the exact word he used, but you get the gist.
Soros needn’t worry … successive US governments have been progressing along those lines for decades now.
President Obama is beating Soros to the punch. Doubling the debt to $20T in less than eight years is pretty impressive. Who needs enemies when you have a President like that?
There’s a reason why Soros is a big backer of Democrats.
Not unexpectedly, the total number of Atlantic Hurricanes has the same envelope as the AMO. Given that we are on the downslope of the AMO, that leads to a prediction of less and less powerful hurricanes through the bottom at around 2045. Since the AMO represents the pumping of warm water and hence energy into the northern Atlantic this may be a reasonable hypothesis. I suspect that the “anointed” have it dead wrong as usual and us dispicables who study real science have it more correct.
Good Lord…this weather channel goofball finishes his report from Palm Beach Co talking about storm surge along the FL coast getting up to 7-11 ft in northern FL and saying this storm is like “anything we’ve ever seen in the modern era.”
“anything we’ve ever seen in the modern era.” There they go again. Living memory is all that counts to climate shysters. Why say it that way? Why not just say since such and such a date and before that such and such a date and then complete the picture by saying “and we have no idea what caused the hurricanes and storm surges then but we are certain that this one is the result of climate change.” They have a communication problem and it relates to telling the full story.
Any “communication problem” from such ilk is deliberate.
Living memory Heck. I guess if you are 18 or younger, that might be true.
TURN OFF THE TV! Save your sanity.
At Cape Canaveral Station TRDF1 the storm surge reached the dizzy heights of almost 4 feet above the predicted tide height – fortunately it was nearly low tide at the time so the net result was a water level about 20 inches above todays high tide.
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=8721604#obs
*unlike
It is true that the coast between cape Canaveral and Jax have been hit by far fewer hurricanes than other parts of the state. Too far north for them to come straight out of the east. The present scenario with a low angle impact is kinda the worst case scenario.
The Alarmists, getting desperate to advance their tendentious & self-serving cause, will seize on *anything* to do so. You can bet that hundreds of them, as I write, are busy keyboarding junk propaganda linking AGW & H.Matthew, to serve-up to the sensationalist-driven media and the even more gullible voters who don’t have the wit to see Snake-Oil Salesmen on their doorsteps for what they are.
I can assure all it is pretty boring here in Fort Lauderdale. We now have strong TS winds. Maybe even reaching Cat 1. But the building is not swaying as in Wilma’s strong cat 2. Not power loss. No water loss. Although we prepared for both. Strongest winds forecast for three hours from now. At feeble Cat 1+. I was hoping the balconies would get a freebie pressure washing by at least a Cat 2. Not happening. Bummer. Will have to go clean them both with mop suds, and broom tomorrow, to get rid of salt encrustsion from spume off beach and reef. That is what 65 mph does.
Why didn’t you just throw some soap out on the balcony beforehand? With the wind and the rain and the darkness (I assume it is night time), no one would notice a few bubbles blowing off a building.
Nah, Mix detergent and salt and you get SCUM. Sorry to burst your bubble. /hehe
No doubt Ristvan,
Take it seriously though, Cyclones bearing down in your direction are something the precautionary principle is actually good for. Given cost of potential damage >> Cost of precaution.
Note channel 7 here in Bris Australia is describing this storm as “Unprecedented” when FL has had Two cat 5’s and Eleven Cat 4’s make landfall in the last 150 years. I sent them a note suggesting they get a dictionary and look up the word unprecedented.
TV News Hyperbole, perhaps this is what needs working on – wish they would just report and not judge.
I recall from all the news reports (Oz) of the 2004 tsunami that struck Indonesia, that all news presenters were correctly calling it a “tsunami”. After a few days, suddenly a channel 10 presenter, probably Jo Pearson (I think) was pronouncing it as “zunami”, likely because the producers decided that (I suspect) the Indonesian enunciation was more appropriate, considering we don’t get them here.
But I believe it to be a Japanese term. I don’t really know, but in any case the news is always filtered through the editors and producers, using terminology and story lines that exchange accuracy for impact and ratings.
Maybe all that wishing, hoping and *gasp* praying really does work?
I would like to know why no surface stations have been able to confirm the wind speeds reported in the official numbers given?
The eye wall passed over the Bahamas, over the two biggest cities on that island chain, and i did not see any reports of winds over 100 mph.
So, just where is the wind blowing at 140?
CORPORATE MEDIA HYPING THE NON STORM GIANT
STATE AND GOVERNMENT HYPING GIANT
IM IN BOCA ROTON AND THE STORM IS OVER
LIGHT BREEZ AND LIGHT RAIN
TOTAL OVER HYPE
You’re in Boca? How are the beaches? It’s nesting season and most of the sea turtles should have emerged by now but there are always late nests.
The Katrina song and dance begins anew.
No trend in aggregate annual ACE of North Atlantic hurricanes 1945-2014
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2630932
(the study period includes Katrina. It will be updated in 2017 to include 2015 and 2016 data)
Just a thought…….any relationship to the timing of an El Nino….then one of the strongest cat4/5 hurricanes in the Caribbean for a long time?…? I am not seeing obvious connection, but I do not see a lot of things so that does not mean much.
I took an online class today sponsored by my company to warn people about phishing, scams, and computer security. These global warming hucksters use the same social engineering tactics as hackers. “Phishing is an example of social engineering techniques used to deceive users, and exploits the poor usability of current web security technologies.” “Criminals use social engineering tactics because it is usually easier to exploit your natural inclination to trust than it is to discover ways to hack your software. For example, it is much easier to fool someone into giving you their password than it is for you to try hacking their password (unless the password is really weak).”
In other words, it is easier to convince you to give up your standard of living and your wealth through confidence games than it is to outright rob you at gunpoint.
It looks like when it comes ashore it’ll be a cat 3. Nothing to sneeze at certainly, but not a super storm either.
Huh, Sandy was a so-called “superstorm” at barely Category 1, Category 3 makes it 4 times more powerful than Sandy. Cat 3 storms and even category 2 storms are to be counted as serious- take precautions.
Sandy was not Category 1 at New Jersey landfall. Several NDBC buoys recorded maximum sustained winds were 55 knots, well below the 64 knot hurricane threshold. Land based stations had wind speeds were even lower.
The point is that this storm is not unusual. The only thing unusual about it is that it is the first one in awhile. This blog is about how warmist are trying to link it to global warming. It’s a catch 22 for a skeptic. CAGW people can use all kinds of adjectives to enhance global warming, if a skeptic says it’s only a cat 3, then I don’t understand the seriousness of the situation. CAGW constantly rounds up on numbers when it’s in their favor, and down when it isn’t. It’s not a super storm. It’s a run of the mill hurricane. If you live in Florida, it should be expected. Hurricanes happen, and sometimes really bad ones. The big problem is too many people living in harms way. I remember when we drove to Miami, there was a sign that said last gas station for the next 90 miles. And it was desolate, it’s not that way anymore. The same with the Jersey shore, nobody lived there year round. And certainly there wasn’t any building on the ocean side of Rte 9… stepping out over the line… somewhere in the swamps of Jersey … hard to believe, right ? Who in there right mind would build a million dollar house when the ocean is over there 2 blocks away, and the back Bay is over there 1 block away, and you’re on sand with an elevation of 2 whole feet ? People with too much money. But forbid that something should happen, they’ll be crying to the government that the climate isn’t perfect .
I was in Louisiana for Katrina. You know what the biggest problem was ? Getting on the road, exposed. In my opinion, Camille was worse. Will another cat 5 hit the Gulf Coast? Of course. About every 29 years.
It apparently is not going to come ashore, – at least the center (eye) of the storm. It may loop around and cross FL as a tropical storm at most.
The Magnificent Fail of AWG [Global Human Climate Sharknado]
The “eye” i.e. storm center is still and still offshore of Florida and motion is turning to the Northeast!
Religion Fail At Its Best!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/h5-loop-wv.html
weather nation just showed a model showing it hitting right on west palm beach while their own radar showed it about 100 miles east and 15 miles or so north of west palm……..current radar shows it losing its shape and weakening……
Gotta love those models made with popsicle sticks. If their predictions hold correct, then why bother with computers?
Maybe I’m looking at the wrong data, but the eyewall is completely open to the south as of 10:20 pm.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=MLB&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
That’s a sad looking Cat 4.
Please remember that the wind speed of 130 mph is the MAXIMUM speed, not all the wind is this speed. In fact very little of it is this speed. And any that is of that speed is probably within a very small, narrow band near the center. Wind speeds fall off very quickly as you move away from the center.
However, if you happen to be hit with those maximum wind speeds you are in a lot of trouble as with Charley in 2004. I live about 22 miles from where the eye wall hit and we didn’t even get 60 mph winds. As I drove to the Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda area there was very little damage until I got very close the the track of where the eye wall had passed. Then all of a sudden you came upon total devastation. Valuable lesson learned about being prepared for the worse and hoping you get lucky.
Charlie was an unusually compact storm.
Same damage pattern was true of Andrew. Had Andrew landed 25 or so miles north there would have been an epic disaster. Andrew blew the wedding pictures off the hallway walls in my grandparents house. (gone)
For the warmists this is a propaganda moment and nothing more. For the people involved this is business as usual….from 10 years ago…and nothing unusual. That doesn’t make it any less dangerous.
11pm Eastern, and nullschool.net shows max speed at 72mph, just under cat 1.
When it’s all said and done, this storm will not be in the top 10 of storms to hit Florida….but it is unlike anything wje’ve ever seen before….
It never hit Florida (as a hurricane).
Came close, but no cigar.
It looks like Klotzbach was right. The hurricane will stay offshore, nearest approach will be Canaveral.
Winds away from the eye are very light.
I would like to see all the wind speed data from up and down the coast in FL for this storm. Actual DATA.
https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=27.1&lon=-79.2&hur=1&sat=1
Uncheck Satellite and check Weather Stations
Don’t worry, the Global Warming story will never die. There is always next year. Surely there will be an unprecedented storm somewhere. Somewhere there will be a drought, a snowstorm, a flood, and since it hasn’t happened in 80 or 90 years the result has to be AGW. How can it be otherwise ?
Snowstorm? I though that within a few years beyond 2000, children wouldn’t know what snow is? Water’s pretty useless stuff in that state anyway, much like glaciers.
My prediction is that no ground station will see any winds higher than Cat 1
the inner eyewall has collapsed into a much wider(slower) storm at this time……and the dry air that has been sitting to the west all week and is still there is being drawn into the storm now………