Another 'Climate Denier' Stomped

A distinguished scientist, Willie Soon, finds his reputation “in play”

Willie Soon

Guest essay by Walter Donway

Just over a year ago, I wrote an article on the “stomping” of Dr. Wei-Hock Soon, a distinguished astrophysicist who advocates study of the sun and its ever-changing juxtaposition with the Earth’s position, orbit, and axial tilt, as primary in explaining temperature changes on Earth. How interesting, but so what?

Well, publishing peer-reviewed scientific papers on solar irradiance in explaining long-term changes in Earth’s temperature (like the “Maunder Minimum”) directly and powerfully contradicts the established, mainstream (dare I say, “sanctified”?) wisdom of global warming as a result of anthropogenic CO2 –and alarming global warming, or, since global warming inexplicably has halted for some 16 years, all extreme weather events.

Well, I wrote that article at a time when Dr. Soon’s reputation was being systematically destroyed by the so-called “investigative arm” of Greenpeace. What alerted me to this Greenpeace campaign was evidence that stories appearing almost simultaneously in the “New York Times,” “Washington Post,” and “Boston Globe”–portraying Soon as a bought-and-sold tool of fossil-fuel interests–were nearly identical, slightly edited versions of a press release from Greenpeace.

Now, just this week, I happened to reread the Wikipedia entry on Dr. Soon. What a shock! As you know, anyone who registers can contribute to Wikipedia and entries on any subject are endlessly wrangled. I imagine that if Greenpeace can write stories for page one of America’s leading newspapers, it can win the mud-wrestling contest over Wikipedia entries.

Two lead paragraphs of that Wikipedia entry say:

“Soon disputes the current scientific understanding of climate change, and contends that most global warming is caused by solar variation rather than by human activity…. He gained visibility in part due to scientific criticism of the methodology of a paper which he co-wrote.[9] Climate scientists have refuted Soon’s arguments, and the Smithsonian does not support his conclusions, but he is frequently cited by politicians opposed to climate-change legislation.

“Over the past decade, Soon’s research and his salary have been funded largely by fossil-fuel interests…, which provided over $1.2 million in funding over 10 years, including $409,000 from The Southern Company and $230,000 from Charles G. Koch Charitable Foundation. These funding sources were not disclosed in a number of papers published since 2008, leading the Smithsonian Institution to investigate whether Soon had violated conflict-of-interest policies… Soon says he has “always complied with what I understood to be disclosure practices in my field generally.”

Well, perhaps the writers or editors are not very precise, but the correct word is “rebutted” and not “refuted.” “Rebut” means offered a challenge, a counter-argument; “refute” means proven false.

As for the funding, I thought it might be worth republishing the article I wrote, at the time of this controversy, which pointed out that “clean” sources of government funds for research are not available to investigate hypothesis that potentially would contradict anthropogenic global warming. And those scientists who accept research funding from the private corporations whose existence is threatened by public policies–and, yes, ideologies–based on the increasingly dubious manmade global warming hypothesis–are portrayed by Greenpeace as little better than whores.

In view of this, I thought it worthwhile to republish my May 2015 article, “Another “Climate Denier Stomped,” which directly challenged those allegations that the partisans of anthropogenic global warming have at least for now transmuted into “the historical record” in Wikipedia and elsewhere.

For my article on the trial-and-conviction by public media of a courageous scientist, follow the link. I invite your comments on every side of the issue.

More:  http://www.thesavvystreet.com/another-climate-denier-stomped/

 

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H. D. Hoese
September 28, 2016 9:52 am

Historically the petroleum industry has funded a great deal of open basic research. It was better than the current overall government sources.

ferd berple
September 28, 2016 9:52 am

Climate Science has made a fundamental statistical mistake, which Soon and Baliunas revealed. In statistics A+B is not always equal B+A. Specifically, the variance of the mean is less than the mean of the variance.
In other words, if you want to calculate natural variability, you need to calculate the variability for each proxy, then average the result. This will give you average variability. This was the insight of Soon and Baliunas.
If instead you average the proxies first, then calculate the variability, the variability will be appear to be reduced, because in fact you have made a fundamental mathematical mistake. You have not calculated the average variability, you have calculated the variability of the average.
This was the mistake that climate science made. This mistake has mislead a generation of Scientists. By working with the average of the proxies to calculate natural variability for the past, climate variability for the past was calculated to be much lower than it actually was.
Statistically, climate is not changing. It only appeared to be changing due to a mathematical error. Our current climate variability remains unchanged as compared to the past, and our current temperatures are well within the normal range of probability.
In other words, CO2 is not required to explain current temperatures, because current temperatures are well with the expected range given past temperatures and natural variability.

kim
Reply to  ferd berple
September 28, 2016 10:30 am

Nicely put.
Attribution, she’s a bitch,
Don’t know how just scratch that itch.
Puff the Magic Climate
Lived by the CO2,
Nature turned and bit him, someplace rich.
H/t, well, to me.
============

Reply to  ferd berple
September 28, 2016 10:49 am

In other words, if you want to calculate natural variability, you need to calculate the variability for each proxy, then average the result. This will give you average variability. This was the insight of Soon and Baliunas.

Ha, this is exactly what I’ve been doing with my review of NCDC surface data. I think Soon and Baliunas are very smart indeed lol

Reply to  micro6500
September 28, 2016 10:50 am

OH, and I have taken no money from anyone except my non-related employer.

AGW is not Science
Reply to  ferd berple
September 28, 2016 12:43 pm

Well said. As the saying goes, “There’s lies, damn lies, and then there’s statistics.” And THEN there’s idiots without a clue about statistics pretending to do statistics and REALLY giving statistics a bad name…

brad.tittle
Reply to  ferd berple
September 29, 2016 9:49 am

Averages are your friend. Averages will bite you in the rear without blinking an eye. ALWAYS be wary of averages.
Remember what 0 means. Zero has a meaning. 0C I can demonstrate in a lab without too much difficulty. 0K can be demonstrated in a lab with difficulty. 0 Anomaly on the other hand is a little more difficult to recreate. When you create it you have to make a lot of assumptions. A lot of really idiotic assumptions. The temperature can change within 20 feet significantly, but we will spread a single temperature over 1000 square kilometers without a thought.

Philip Schaeffer
September 28, 2016 10:08 am

All I know, is that if I was producing research on a topic, and money was coming from people with a stake in the answers, I’d make damn sure that I made clear to everyone who was giving money, and what possible stake they might have in the outcome.

H. D. Hoese
September 28, 2016 10:21 am

The launching of the field of invertebrate parasitology/pathology came from Texas A & M Research Foundation projects 9 and 23 (~1947-60). It was funded by a consortium of petroleum companies. American Petroleum Institute Project 51 (~1950s) is only one of others. Need to make a list, the industry apparently not very good about this. Of course, this was before the age of demonization.

September 28, 2016 11:00 am

I think this is so bothersome to the left because when they pay for research they expect the answers that the already paid for. If you watch what happens to researchers who are paid by government who conclude anything but the ‘right’ answer you will see what happens. In other words, the left has replaced the Scientific Method with an expectation of preconcluded results. (My Money) + (Research I Paid For) = (Results I expected before I paid You).

September 28, 2016 12:13 pm

“Soon disputes the current scientific understanding of climate change, and contends that most global warming is caused by solar variation rather than by human activity….
And Dr. Soon is absolutely correct.
As soon (no pun intended) solar activity is mentioned as the principal cause of natural activity, someone or another is waiting in the wings with the baseball bat…
a) Proxies (see Ferd Berple) above are affected by numerous factors from the point in time of being generated all the way to and including measurement (methods and accuracy). Wherever some kind of a contemporaneous instrumental record is available it should take preference to any proxy data.
b) Solar energy is stored in the oceans and has effect on the nearby land temperatures some years after its direct impact. Consequence of this is that looking for an 11 year solar signature in the land or ocean data is a fruitless exercise.
c) However, if it is looked at the change (delta) in the sun’s output, here taking the Group Sunspot Number as more accurate representation of the solar activity rather than the more familiar SSN (as recommended by Dr. Svalgaard) than it is perfectly clear that there is strong association between solar activity and the 300+ years of the Central England instrumental temperature records.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/GdCs1.gif
W. Soon says:“…most global warming is caused by solar variation rather than by human activity…. and so say many of us, regretfully we are not funded by anyone, the least by the fossil fuel industry.

michael hart
September 28, 2016 12:44 pm

Truth be told, Willie Soon is a not particularly big academic fish, in a moderately obscure pond.
That he becomes a hate figure in the climate-conflagration community for the crime of, umm, nothing apparently, speaks volumes. Those who choose to pursue him, for not ticking an administrative box that Greenpeace thinks he should have ticked, shows how hard they have to search for imagined villains.
Greenpeace are at least honest enough to not even attempt to disguise that they wish to destroy the life and career of Willie Soon simply , pour encourager les autres.
If only I had a lot of this much-alleged big oil money that I could send him to continue his work unmolested.

Wim Röst
September 28, 2016 4:09 pm

I was on a meeting with Wikipedia representatives. They told, that some pages were written and rewritten with a complete other text over and over again. And the most ‘rewritten page’ of the whole Wikipedia???? Yes indeed: Climate Change!!!
I once met Willie Soon on a conference. I also read one of his articles very seriously. I was impressed.
Because he is powerfull in his point of view, some people want to damage him. ‘Believers’ don’t have scientific points to do so. For that, they use Wikipedia that they can rewrite without clearly putting their name below it.

Walter Donway
Reply to  Wim Röst
September 28, 2016 6:20 pm

Very telling comment about Wiki. Thank you!

Sparks
September 28, 2016 4:49 pm

TSI is an indicator, every reasonable indicator between the sun, the observation of planetary orbits and climate agree!
I agree unpaid science/astronomy/engineering is called “amateur”…
I’m here to take no prisoners, science is a bloodsport!! bring it!!!

Reply to  Sparks
September 28, 2016 5:28 pm

I agree unpaid science/astronomy/engineering is called “amateur”…

I decided to actually get surface data to look at because of how quickly it cools off after sunset while setting up to do deep space astrophotography (And had db skills to process all of the data).

Sparks
Reply to  micro6500
September 28, 2016 6:30 pm

I certainly am a proponent for encouraging the skills of amateurs. (non-paid professionals).

Dikran Marsupial
September 29, 2016 4:58 am

“As for the funding, I thought it might be worth republishing the article I wrote, at the time of this controversy, which pointed out that “clean” sources of government funds for research are not available to investigate hypothesis that potentially would contradict anthropogenic global warming. ”
This is incorrect, the most obvious counter example being the CLOUD project at CERN, which was received IIRC about 12M ECU of funding. Rightly so as the proposal was contained good science. I read Svensmark’s book “The Chilling Stars” and while Svensmark appeared unhappy with the level of funding he received, it looked decidedly above average to me. Clean souces of government funding clearly are available, but the proposal has to make a good case (and great claims require great evidence).