Guest post by David Middleton
It seems like a week is incomplete without at least one Real Clear Energy article proclaiming huge gains in EV sales and the impending doom of internal combustion engines and the oil industry . This week was no exception.
Surge In EV Sales Bucks Cheap Gasoline, Broader Auto Industry Trends
by Leslie Hayward | September 14, 2016
In the 2011 State of the Union, President Obama set an ambitious goal to put 1 million electric vehicles on U.S. roads by 2015—a milestone seen as unlikely but technically achievable at the time. As of now, we’re only half-way there. But this year’s sales figures give reason for fresh optimism about the future of EVs in the United States. In 2016, EV sales are surging, even as gasoline prices languish and overall auto sales are down year-over-year. Coinciding with the sales surge, major news outlets that have been skeptical of EVs have been shifting their tone in recent weeks, potentially signaling a greater cultural acceptance of the technology.
[…]
[T]he Financial Times has demonstrated less overt vitriol toward EVs over the years, but recently posited that the technology could account for 25 percent of passenger cars by 2040, likely depressing oil prices and creating concern among OPEC members and other large petroleum exporters. “I think they are scared to death,” analyst Vikas Dwivedi told the FT. “Electric vehicles are a massive enemy and I think they are worried to the point that this has been one of the motivations, among others, for the Aramco IPO.” Seeing EVs as a catalyst, much like shale oil production, for the crippling of OPEC and Saudi Arabia is a narrative that has been largely absent from major outlets until recently.
Articles like these appear to be tapping into a greater awareness of and interest in electric vehicles nationwide. The Union of Concerned Scientists recently published research finding that there’s significant unmet demand for EVs. In California, 67 percent of drivers are interested in electric vehicles, with 65 percent wanting more automakers to offer more electric options. And in the Northeast, 55 percent of drivers expressed interest in EVs while 60 percent want automakers to offer more electric options. So, even as 2016 EV sales surge, it’s possible that only a fraction of the true consumer demand is actually being met by the models and vehicles currently available.
Putting EV Sales Into Context
From January through August, EV sales in the U.S. totaled 99,634 vehicles. Over the same time period, sales of Ford F-Series pickup trucks totaled 527,847 vehicles. Each of the 20 top-selling models outsold the sum-total of EV models. Year-to-date EV sales are comparable to about 45 days of Ford F-Series sales.
EV’s have accounted for 0.6% of auto sales this year:
These “futurists” really seem to believe that EV’s “could account for 25 percent of passenger cars by 2040, likely depressing oil prices” because EV sales have increased from zero-point-zero to slightly above zero-point-zero since 2011.
The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis keeps track of U.S. vehicle sales. If I plot the EV sales from the article along with total vehicle sales and extrapolate the data out to 2040, I don’t get anything close to 25%.
Even if I limited it to passenger cars, which account for about 30% of U.S. auto sales I only get to 5%. The only way this trend could lead to EV’s accounting “for 25 percent of passenger cars by 2040,” would be to assume that EV’s lasted longer than conventional passenger cars and the cumulative sales would eventually bring them up to 25% of passenger cars… AKA imaginary math.
So, “green” math yields a five-fold exaggeration in future EV auto sales… Very consistent with “green” estimates of global warming and climate sensitivity: About five times larger than reality.
Data Sources
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
EVs have a huge disadvantage in cold climates like where I live: you have to use battery power, and lots of it, to heat the cab in the winter. Also, the batteries have a lower capacity when cold. So these two things really reduce the range, and thus the practicality of EVs for people that live in cold weather states.
Folks, way too many people LIKE to drive their vehicle. They LIKE a large, overpowered vehicle. Until you brainwash, I mean re-educate, a large percentage of the population, they are going to continue to do what they LIKE. For several years drove a Mercury Marquis when I was traveling from 100-150 highway miles a day. Big, powerful, heavy and comfortable. And it got me home SAFE every night. When I finally had to let it go it was like losing an trusted friend.
I would hate to have to make that same trip in a SMART (dumb) car EV or not
Driving a car, particularly on the same route day after day, must be one of the most boring activities on God’s green Earth. I did enough of it for the first ten years after I got my driver’s licence that it put me off forever (going to and from where I was flying). After about one hour in car for me it is “are we there yet”.
I find the thought of self driving cars very attractive. Don’t really care if they are electric or IC cars.
Now, airplanes is another matter but even there I think we are on the verge of another aviation revolution. Distributed electric propulsion will make vertical takeoff and landing of small airplanes totally practical and they will be largely self flying. Easier problem than self driving cars and we have lots of drone experience to draw on. Long range propulsion will likely still use fossil fuels though.
Someone referenced SolidEnergy Systems. Once batteries get to the promised 400watt-hours/kilogram electric cars, VTOL small airplanes get totally practical.
Those who fly gliders will find that that sort of battery technology spells the end of towplanes and winches. Yay!
Not when you like your car.
i often find longer trips less boring by driving 10 mph faster than everyone else. Keeps you on your toes.
Methinks that the liability and disability insurance for a battery powered VTOL small plane would make it too expensive except for the elite.
Commercial aircraft have had the ability to take-off, fly and land all by themselves since about 1965.
Donna Laframboise has a related article on her “No Frakking Condsensus“, (Now titled “Big Picture News, Informed Analysis”), website!
“Obama’s Electric Car Fail”</a"
http://jalopnik.com/heres-why-the-tesla-model-s-is-the-1-selling-car-in-no-1651261025
optimism about the future of EVs
Climate change is about the future and only the future. The great thing about the future is that there is no pesky empirical data that can get in the way of imagination.
You have to fit an exponential for EVs, and assume overall sales are flat. Then see what numbers you get.
I tried, but the exponential trend line in Excel wouldn’t work for the EV data. I also plotted the data log- normal (a Ray Kurzweil trick)… it didn’t improve the EV results.
And if you apply ecofanatic math to Pokemon Go you can prove that by 2040 97% of the galaxy will be playing it.
So, say the math magically comes true, and there are 25% EVs on the road some day soon. An elephant in the room is a power source that charges all those, and by simple estimate it must be comparable with the complete grid power so far.
Any contenders? No?
For the duration of the Obama regime, I always thought that in order to boost (artificially of course) the sales/use of EV’s, he would mandate that any vehicle used by any part of the federal bureaucracy would have to purchase EV’s.
Thank GOD that hasn’t happened.
He did impose the purchase of a lot of Gubmint Motors Electric Pintos (Chevy Volts) onto taxpayers.
But I was sure he’d go all the way with it.
Chevy Bolt – over 200 mile range… new Tesla models launching, Shell UK introducing charging at service stations… UK Met Police using electric vehicles…
Like it or not, EVs are continuing to sell at an increasing rate.
http://debunkhouse.files.wordpress.com/2013/06/wpid-data-laughs-o.gif?w=450
Excellent David! I love the Data follow up!
Q’s greatest gift.
You are forgetting the ‘s’ curve – linear extrapolation tells you almost nothing. If battery technology moves in the direction Musk would like, there will come a point when electric is economically rational and practical. Then 25% doesn’t seem silly. But saying when that will happen is just a guess.
EV’s are at the top of the “S”… See my previous comment.
Here in the UK, the LED equivalent of halogen spot-lights are now the most economical and trouble-free purchase choice. No subsidies were required to make that happen. It was simply a matter of technological progress and and the market.
If the UK government had thrown a few billion into subsidizing uptake of these bulbs, then I’m sure that they would now be claiming that the subsidy had successfully steered us all into switching for the energy efficient product. i.e. they would claim that what did happen anyway, was their victory.
The same is true with regard to technologies such as smart phones, solar panels and electric cars. These technologies were coming of age anyway.
I am delighted to see that solar panels, LED lighting, electric cars etc are becoming a cost effective consumer choice.
My only complaint, is that some fools and thieves in government have pretended to aid the “transition” to these technologies by spending hundreds of billions of dollars of other people’s money on their pet projects.
When history is written, it will doubtlessly mistakenly explain to future generations that these technologies were brought into existence through the endeavour of activists, bureaucrats and generous state grants and subsidies.
Technology and the market brought us smart-phones and LED lighting.
And it will bring us electric cars.
With no special government intervention required.
So my only complaint regarding electric vehicles is – why is my government taking money from the poor (such as myself) to help pay for the luxury purchases of the rich?
‘electric cars etc are becoming a cost effective consumer choice.’
“Becoming” carries a heavy load there. Electric cars are not cost effective. Not even close.
Well, there’s only one way to find out.
Take all the subsidies away.
But, that’s not going to happen. And, if Clinton wins, then expect even more market distortion.
Several states have noticed that their highway funds are paid from gas taxes. Thus Prius and truly electric cars get a free ride (no gas tax). This is where the desire to log your vehicle miles (via intrusive GPS) and charge you for that comes from. This would further hurt electric vehicles who would now have to pay 2 or 3 cents/mile road tax.
So… Subsidizing EV’s that drive on roads maintained by gas tax dollars is on a logical par with funding healthcare with a tobacco tax while discouraging people from smoking… 😉
A friend of mine told me of the time when travelling on a divided highway, with uncontrolled crossing traffic,
he saw a car pulling out into his path, his decision was to beat the object to the obvious point of impact, so he floored it, made some kind of evasive maneuver, spilled everyone’s coffee and he’s still around to talk about it.
By 2030 it is estimated that there will be 2 billion vehicles in the world.
Lots of batteries and lots of electricity to charge them.
The critique of the “green” EV numbers fails to appreciate the compounded, and thus exponential, nature of hi tech rapid growth rates.
It is actually clear from the EV sales stats that the CAGR is in excess of 40%.
Thus a doubling of sales every two years.
It is also obvious that 2016 sales are likely to reach almost 10x the 2011 sales.
If sales are growing in excess of 30-fold every decade the “green” sales forecasts of EVs are actually conservative.
Meanwhile battery power density and price per power unit stored grows by 11 and 14% annually respectively. This means that the EV power train will likely reach price parity with the ICE power train within 5 years.
The driving forces for battery and hyrogen fuel cell improvement are the mobile consumer electronics and military equipment sectors. These forces have their own historic exponential trackrecords spanning across seven decades. As does the 75 year exponential march of solar cells and modules.
Folks, we are living amidst the Silicon and Material Science Revolutions. These revolutions have already upended the world of information and communication. The worlds that emanate from energy capture and storage are right on schedule to also be upended.
Both the Green Panic Addicts and the Energy Cynics have ideologically obstructed views of the exponential history and dynamics of technology. Especially in the Silicon and Nano tech eras.
Has any government organisation bothered to do a study on what happened to a power supply that has increasing demand due to increasing numbers of EV’s alongside a reduction in reliable output caused by solar and wind power?
Given the mix of fuels and methods used to produce electricity in the US, the Tesla Model S causes the emission of as much carbon dioxide as a gasoline powered car that gets 17 miles to the gallon. The only difference is that the emission occurs at the generating plant, not from the vehicle.