August 2016 and 2016-to-date are second warmest
Notes on data released Sept. 1, 2016:
Through the first eight months of the year, 2016 seems to be racing toward what might be its place in history — as the second warmest year in the satellite temperature record. But just by a little bit, according to Dr. John Christy, director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville. “While global average temperatures peaked higher this year than they did in 1998, temperatures fell faster this spring and summer to levels that are cooler than they were at this same time of year in 1998. We had three months this year that were warmer than their 1998 counterparts, and five that were cooler. There is really no reliable way of predicting what the next four months will do, compared to those same months in 1998.”
Global climate trend since Nov. 16, 1978: +0.12 C per decade
August temperatures (preliminary)
Global composite temp.: +0.44 C (about 0.79 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for August.
Northern Hemisphere: +0.55 C (about 0.99 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for August.
Southern Hemisphere: +0.32 C (about 0.58 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for August.
Tropics: +0.59 C (about 0.90 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for August.
July temperatures (revised):
Global Composite: +0.39 C above 30-year average
Northern Hemisphere: +0.48 C above 30-year average
Southern Hemisphere: +0.30 C above 30-year average
Tropics: +0.48 C above 30-year average
(All temperature anomalies are based on a 30-year average (1981-2010) for the month reported.)
1998 and 2016
Month-by-month comparison
1998 1 +0.48 2016 1 +0.54
1998 2 +0.65 2016 2 +0.83
1998 3 +0.47 2016 3 +0.73
1998 4 +0.74 2016 4 +0.71
1998 5 +0.64 2016 5 +0.55
1998 6 +0.57 2016 6 +0.34
1998 7 +0.51 2016 7 +0.39
1998 8 +0.52 2016 8 +0.44
The 2015-2016 El Niño Pacific Ocean warming event is officially over, and sea surface temperatures in the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal, which should augur a coming decline in atmospheric temperatures as heat released into the atmosphere as the ocean cooled is itself released into space. 1998 was also the second year of an El Niño Pacific Ocean warming event.
January – August composite
Global average anomalies
1. 1998 0.5725
2. 2016 0.5662
3. 2010 0.4000
4. 2002 0.2462
5. 2015 0.2150
6. 2007 0.2087
7. 2005 0.1987
8. 2014 0.1637
9. 2003 0.1587
10. 1991 0.1312
11. 2013 0.1275
12. 2001 0.1075
13. 2006 0.0950
14. 2004 0.0875
15. 1988 0.0837
16. 1995 0.0800
17. 2009 0.0375
18. 2011 0.0225
19. 1987 0.0162
20. 1980 0.0075
21. 1983 0.0025
22. 2012 -0.0062
23. 1999 -0.0071
24. 1990 -0.0212
25. 1996 -0.0287
26. 2000 -0.0375
27. 1997 -0.0712
28. 1994 -0.0862
29. 1981 -0.1012
30. 2008 -0.1650
31. 1986 -0.2200
32. 1984 -0.2250
33. 1993 -0.2400
34. 1992 -0.2612
35. 1989 -0.2637
36. 1979 -0.2662
37. 1982 -0.3025
38. 1985 -0.3737
With temperatures that were 0.55 C (about 0.99° F) warmer than seasonal norms, August 2016 was the warmest August in the Northern Hemisphere in the satellite temperature record. August 1998 was second warmest at 0.49 C warmer than normal. August 2016 was the second warmest August in the tropics, trailing August 2015 0.52 to 0.50 C. It was the third warmest in the Southern Hemisphere, where the August 2016 average was 0.32 C warmer than normal. August 1998’s Southern Hemisphere average was hottest at 0.54 C warmer than seasonal norms.
Compared to seasonal norms, the warmest average temperature anomaly on Earth in August was southwest of Dome F in East Antarctica. August temperatures there averaged 4.91 C (about 8.84 degrees F) warmer than seasonal norms. Compared to seasonal norms, the coolest average temperature on Earth in August was about 1,500 miles north of West Antarctica, in the region where the South Pacific meets the southern ocean. August’s temperatures there averaged 2.78 C (about 5.00 degrees F) cooler than seasonal norms.
The complete version 6 beta lower troposphere dataset is available here:
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0beta/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0beta5.txt
Archived color maps of local temperature anomalies are available on-line at:
As part of an ongoing joint project between UAHuntsville, NOAA and NASA, Christy and Dr. Roy Spencer, an ESSC principal scientist, use data gathered by advanced microwave sounding units on NOAA and NASA satellites to get accurate temperature readings for almost all regions of the Earth. This includes remote desert, ocean and rain forest areas where reliable climate data are not otherwise available.
The satellite-based instruments measure the temperature of the atmosphere from the surface up to an altitude of about eight kilometers above sea level. Once the monthly temperature data are collected and processed, they are placed in a “public” computer file for immediate access by atmospheric scientists in the U.S. and abroad.
Neither Christy nor Spencer receives any research support or funding from oil, coal or industrial companies or organizations, or from any private or special interest groups. All of their climate research funding comes from federal and state grants or contracts.
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Here’s yall a way of looking at “global Climate”. temperature
Estimating from the Hadcrut Data 4 off WFT, using just the 1900, 1920, 1940 estimates, of -2, -2, and 0 vs 1960, 1980, 2000 estimates, of -2, -2 and 2, for land sea …. The average, or “climate value” for temperature goes from -0.13, to -0.06.
So … we are to believe that a “climate change” in temperature of 0.07C is supposed to be “significant”.
B.S.
hi
I must add that I think that the satellite data are also tainted, mainly because of malfunction.
Namely, there is no temperature sensing material in space that can withstand the current spotless and scorching sun….
Earth’s atmosphere is programmed to protect us from the most harmful rays by converting it to ozone, peroxides and N-oxides. Go measure….
HenryP,
I recommend reading Dr. Christy’s testimony before Congress. He explains the minor errors and corrections to the satellite data:
http://docs.house.gov/meetings/SY/SY00/20160202/104399/HHRG-114-SY00-Wstate-ChristyJ-20160202.pdf
@dbstealey
Hi, I went through that report and cannot find how they propose to stop degradation of sensors harmed by the the sun’s most harmful rays.I would expect a natural drift upward due to degradation, though.
Either way, none of the official data sets follow my data sets.
I have continuously encouraged people to look at
minima – which is a good measure/proxy for GH influence
maxima- which is a good measure/proxy for incoming warmth
I have yet to see any reports on this from the “specialists”
“Temperatures measured to two decimal places of a degree and averages to four decimal places. And the physical meaning of these four decimal place averages is … ?”
The physical meaning?
Glad you asked.
A couple of examples. Suppose I tell you that I weighed 10,000 swedes and the average weight of those
Swedes was 158.9765 lbs
Whats the physical meaning of an average?
Simple; averages are never observed. Averages are mathematical constructs. they dont exist as actual
physical things.. they result from doing math on numbers.They are operationally defined.
What is the OPERATIONAL meaning of an average?
When I tell you the average swede weighs 158.9765 pounds we mean this
( define the OPERATION )
1. Go get a perfect scale
2. Randomly select a bunch of swedes
3. Weigh them
4. Subtract the weight from the estimated average. Note the error.
5 Check your answer. use 158.9 as your estimate of the average. Note the error
6. Compare the two errors.
7. Which estimate (average ) was closer to the truth?
Global temperature “averages” are mathematical constructs, they are estimates of the temperature
in NON SAMPLED places. To build one you use the data from SAMPLED locations.
So for example. we say the ‘average’ temperature is 15.10C
What does that mean?
it means
1. Randomly choose a bunch of locations where we dont have measurements
2. Go measure temperature at those locations.
3. calculate the error using 15.10C as the estimate
4. Calculate the error using 15C as the estimate
5. calculate using 15.20C as the error
6. the error using 15.1C will be the lowest
One problem is that people are confused by thinking that a term (average) refers to a thing.
when it refers to a process or operation.
You can also test the average by “holding out” data.
So for example: we have 40K stations. you can create an average using 5000 stations for example.
Then you can test the average by comparing the average of the 5000 to the 35K you “held out”
SO.. the average, like all averages, has no physical meaning. what is your employment rate?
0 or 1.
when we say the unemployment rate is 5% we dont mean everyone or anyone is 95% employed.
Look there are better skeptical arguments about AGW than the ones skeptics have about
temperature series.
I’ll suggest that skeptics should put all their effort behind folks like Nic Lewis. he gets it.
I often laugh in the UK when we have so called ‘exceptionally’ warm or even cold weather compared to the ‘average’ – being on the boundary of 3 competing air masses Continental, Atlantic, and Polar. Certain months can have quite normal drastically different air masses. The average might be 12, but that’s the 30 year average of a cold continental type which might bring 5 or 6’s or mild Atlantic bringing 18 or 19. So if we’re at the min or max of any of those extremes it’s ‘exceptionally’ variant from the mathematical average. But it’s actually the ‘average’ value which would be exceptional if we actually sat at that figure for more than a few days……. Just a point of fact that averages are often meaningless and comparing to them all the time can be misleading.
Sunspot number time-integral plus net of all ocean cycles plus effect of water vapor increase provides a 98% match to measurements 1895-2015 as shown at http://globalclimatedrivers2.blogspot.com .
But people will not accept data that runs counter to what they believe which in this case is AGW.
They are in denial and are basing all of their rants on this current warmth which is nothing more then the latest spike of warmth in global temperatures which have been going on since the Holocene Optimum came to an end around 8500 years ago.
Which I might add despite this spike and all the other previous spikes the overall trend in global temperatures since the Holocene Optimum has been a slow gradual downward trend.
This warmth which is in the process of ending by the way, is in no way unique or different from previous spikes of warmth.
.
Worse yet when one views this current warm spell against past warm spells as shown by the historical climatic record this warm spell is a nothing event.
The magnitude of this warm spell being weak ,rate of temperature increase being weak and duration being weak when viewed against past periods of warmth.
Simple analyses [22] indicate that either an increase of approximately 186 meters in average cloud altitude or a decrease of average albedo from 0.3 to the very slightly reduced value of 0.2928 would account for all of the 20th century increase in AGT of 0.74 K. Because the cloud effects work together and part of the temperature change is due to ocean oscillation (low in 1901, 0.2114 higher in 2000), substantially less cloud change would suffice.
My Reply:
My point which is if prolonged solar activity changes the terrestrial items which determine albedo, cooling will be in the offing.
if prolonged solar activity changes the terrestrial items which determine albedo, cooling will be in the offing.
If pigs had wings they would fly…
Fact is that no sustained cooling has been observed, so the sun has not been very cooperative, regardless of how much you hope for.
You speak to soon since my low average solar parameters have yet to materialize. Once they come about and if cooling at that time does not occur then you will have a point.
For some reason the solar criteria I have stated needed for cooling is not registering. I never said cooling would occur if solar readings were above my low average minimum values.Values which I have stated many times.
For some reason the solar criteria I have stated needed for cooling is not registering. I never said cooling would occur if solar readings were above my low average minimum values.Values which I have stated many times.
Here we have a 132 month running mean since 1880 of
– Sun Spot Number
– Multivariate ENSO Index
– HadCRUT4 global mean
Actually, we seem (!) to have a temperature scheme that needs no great help… even not from the sun spots.
http://fs5.directupload.net/images/160903/iw82zntp.jpg
How will they have to look, these solar readings turning us into a cooling?
thank you to the others that have noted a point i have posted for years = claiming we have a valid scientific method of arriving as a single temperature and calling that the earths temperature is NOT POSSIBLE, and to claim we have precision to within hundredths of a degree is MORONIC!
But pretending this serves the interests of the government-academic-green industrial complex.
Ike warned us!
Ike was the last NON politician president, maybe we should try that choice again and LISTEN to this one and fix this nation.
RE: “There is really no reliable way of predicting what the next four months will do, compared to those same months in 1998.”
However there are clues. Here on the US West Coast we are feeling La Nina. August came in as the coolest in terms of diurnal high temperatures for San Francisco. We’ve had one baggy trough after another parked off the coast. Further north, in the Pac NW, the dry season never really got started. There were rain events throughout the summer albeit at a lower level than the rainy season. Here in NorCal we have a front bearing down that may bring precip down to 37ish N at the Coast, with a diagonal rain line to the NE from there. That’s really early for something like that.,
The upward blip may be related to a blip in the NINO3.4 & 3 indexes allowing for lag? Since June it is falling away rapidly. (Weekly data to 28/Aug)
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/indices.shtml?bookmark=nino3.4
Yes indeed: it’s falling rapidly since june.
But have a look at SOI: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=SOI
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/monitoring/soi30.png
You see that the index (here unluckily inverted, La Niña mode is above zero) literally is scotched around level 5 (La Niña starts with level 7).
Forest Gardner …. “Measuring long term changes will then look at what the climate at individual locations was 30 years ago and what it is now. It then becomes a database to be interrogated rather than a pre-cooked calculation with no physical meaning..”
Wrong …. what you are doing is comparing data points, not climate values As noted, “Climate” is a composite or average number derived over a series of years, not a data point of a particular year, as the morons who are making this “hottest year eva” claim are doing.
The more correct way to do it would be to average the last 60 years, and compare it to the average of the previous 60 years. That way you avoid conflicts with changes in the PDO!
2 x 60 = OK?
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/09/01/global-temperature-report-august-2016/comment-page-1/#comment-2292051
You’re showing PDO and AMO oscillation values there, which are necessarily de-trended. They don’t show temperatures.
Here is a measure of the observed change in actual sea surface temperatures since 1900: http://www.woodfortrees.org/graph/hadsst3gl/from:1900/plot/hadsst3gl/from:1900/trend
SSTs have warmed at a rate of 0.07 deg C per decade since 1900. Every one of the past 12 consecutive months has set a new respective monthly warmest record. Needless to say that period is also by far the warmest period on record for global SSTs.
Suggesting as you did that “…oceans [which make for 70% of the earth’s surface] have not changed in temperature over the past 116 years” is clearly wrong.
Detrended?
What do you mean?
@DWR54
the way I understand it, is that an index is a number of data sets from a certain area that are grouped together and then they are averaged. Perhaps, instead of focussing on one set, we can put all three together
http://woodfortrees.org/plot/jisao-pdo/plot/esrl-amo/from:1900/plot/esrl-amo/from:1900/to:2017/trend/plot/jisao-pdo/from:1900/to:2017/trend/plot/hadsst3nh/from:1900/to:2017/plot/hadsst3gl/from:1900/to:2017/trend
I think it would be fair then to take an average of all three: 0; 0.1; 0.8
The average of all three indices gives me a change of 0.3K, or 0.025K per decade.
At this stage, we should take into account that we are looking at an estimate of all oceans, plus we should remember that before the 1950s thermometers were not [even] re-calibrated, never mind the difference in recording techniques, e.g. computers instead of people
Therefore, my argument stands, namely that the temperature of the oceans have not changed significantly over a period of 115 years.
I hope you agree.
instead of looking at T
what if we started looking at precipitation
that would be a lot more useful
to predict droughts etc
Guys, there lots of graphs that show discrepancy between them.. which ones do you trust more?
Anyhow, whats up with that about the arctic ice melt since 1979(satelite data)? Thats scarry and show that if it continues this trend arounf 2040, well be arctic ice free in summer!!!
Also theres no discussion on how to meassure it, just look at the white ice in the sea
John
To be blunt about your near-hysteric question, so what?
7 months of the year, LESS arctic sea ice means a cooler planet overall.
5 months of the year, less arctic sea ice means a slight warming up north, but even that little bit is meaningless in the last weeks of the summer as arctic sea ice nears its annual minimum. (After 12 August, there is almost no heat gained from the sun at all, and the melt ponds on top of the sea ice re-freeze each night.)
By mid-September at the actual minimum sea ice point each year, there are only a few hundred watts received per square meter of sea ice/open ocean over the entire 24-hour day.
Now, down south, which you are deliberately ignoring for some reason, antarctic sea ice annually reflects 1.7 TIMES the direct solar energy the arctic sea ice reflects. And, through mid-2015, the Antarctic sea ice was setting new record high areas every year. In June 2014, for example, just the EXCESS antarctic sea ice was larger than the entire Greenland ice cap. And THAT is going to cool the planet, right?
to be even more blunt: the Eemian interglacial was much hotter then it is during the entire holocene interglacial, which actually is the coldest interglacial of the ice core records, and for sure back then with sea levels 6 meter higher then today there was no arctic icecap during summertime….
it didn’t stop the next glacial episode from occurring.
oh yes and the latest findings also do suggest a summer near ice free arctic 6000 years ago.that holocene optimum did last 2000-3000 years
Also when compared to the whole reconstruction of earth’s climate it looks that ice ages are rather the anomaly then the norm. it looks that an average of 21-23°C is rather the norm for earth’s mea temperature.
and finally look at what the Alpine glaciers do reveal by their retreat: 4000 year old treetrunks. ever wondered what this means? Not that their retreat is alarming, but that 4000 years ago it ws so hot there that trees were growing much higher up then where they are found today. Oh yes and something killed them in just a year time…
sorry to burst your bubble John.
Good comment!
well in all this data, surface data etc stuff i would like to ad a very striking regional part:
this year’s june saw for our official, in uccle located weather station; a record wet month of June.
However should it have been located 70 miles north east to where i live that record would have been nowhere as here a local sea wind kept the thnderstorms away.
now secondly and most important: here in belgium the RMI does record “global warming, but their unadjusted data show 2 distinctive steps one in the 1920’s and one in 1990’s each step taking only 2 years. for the rest the record stays flat. Compare that to adjusted GISS, NOAA or hadcrut data….
So even in a decade scale you can say “unprecedented global warming” but compare that to the 2 70+ year long flat stretches since temperature records begun in 1833…