Recorded video is available now, just click play. Live stream will be on this page below at 7PM ET/4PM PT
Who says the debate over global warming is over? Not The Heartland Institute. Mark the 10th Anniversary of Al Gore’s movie, “An Inconvenient Truth” by watching Heartland’s live-stream of a truly enlightening debate: Heartland Institute Science Director Jay Lehr vs. Colorado State University Professor Scott Denning.
We will have close to 100 packed into Heartland’s Andrew Breitbart Freedom Center and hope you’re among those watching online starting at 6 p.m. CT
Watch here:
When it is live, on Heartland’s YouTube live-stream page, you can ask questions in the chat room.
If the issue is Al Gore’s movie there is nothing to debate, it has been proven wrong, if the atmospheric sensitivity to an increase in CO2 there might be a bit of debate.
I would like to know what the subject of the debate is? If it is something like “Was it hopelessly incompetent vs out and out fraud”, that would be illuminating.
It’s definitely worth tuning in … if only to hear Denning defend some of the science in the flim. He’s even going to talk about the polar bears, according to his prep sheet and the clips he will show.
Polar Bears? Hopefully Susan Crockford will give us some commentary on her site about the remarks – from everything I’ve seen there, the polar bears are fat and happy, and only a severe case of late spring freeze up would change that.
If the polar bears are fat and happy then the parents of the baby seals they ate to get that way must be absolutely devastated. What ever happened to Pam Anderson and “Save the Baby Seals” ?
I like the concept that there are winners and losers in every snapshot of the environment. If the polar bears are fat, the fish and seals might be having a hard time. If the polar bears are lean, then the seals and fish are fat.
In every news story, it always pays to mentally pan back and include the photographer and journalist into every picture.
That’s wrong most of the time. If the prey are prospering, the predators will prosper. If the prey are in trouble, the predators will soon follow. The classic example is the lynx-snowshoe hare cycle.
Not quite commieBob. The Lynx/Hare has been used for decades as the classic example but the idea is founded on nothing. (Even though it is taught in Ecology 101.) And you will find many graphs that show the close relationship.
However Hall 1988 when checking the data found that the Lynx and Hare populations measured were separated by some 1,000 miles. Oddly enough most University lecturers have never heard of this paper.
http://www.esf.edu/efb/hall/pdfs/Hall1988_ecologyModelling.pdf
With all due respect, the link I cited is from the Northwest Territories (Canada). The aboriginal population is more than 50% of the total.
I trust these people much more than I trust any number of out-of-touch PhDs from the south.
Sorry for the duplication. This post is posted elsewhere because I clicked the wrong thing.
Fixed. 🙂
“…. if only to hear Denning defend some of the science in the flimflam. Now Fixed Janice 🙂
🙂
Your formulation is more correct than MarloweJ’s, Janice (no offense intended, Marlowe).
There is no valid science in the claim of CO2-induced global warming. The whole gemisch lives on false precision. It’s not much more than pseudo-science.
Denning was never faced with the real issue: the whole claim rests on climate models, and climate models have no predictive (or explanatory) value as regards CO2 emissions.
Denning’s entire argument rested on radiation physics: more heat = more air temperature. This is not at all necessarily correct, because the terrestrial climate has a large number of fast alternative response channels, such as convection/evaporation, cloud condensation, and Willis’ thunderstorms (not an exhaustive list). All of these are very poorly (or not at all) modeled.
I’m sorry to say, because he’s obviously a nice guy and sincere, and sincerely worried, but Denning’s explanations are bereft of careful scientific thought.
Thank you, Dr. Frank, for your very kind affirmation. Say, I posted (the same day I commented on the thread about it) a “Tips and Notes” request that Anthony feature on WUWT an article about your “No Certain Doom” lecture exposing the “zero” information provided by and lack of precision of climate models in this video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=THg6vGGRpvA&index=1&list=LLQpOy7MunETLY6snz4dlzxw .
Perhaps, because you are still (still!) trying to get it published, Anthony can’t publish about it here, but, I wanted you to know I tried! I hope we see that video (great lecture!) featured on WUWT before too long.
Hang in there, O Valiant and Long-persevering Warrior for Science Truth,
Janice
Thank-you, Janice. May we both live to see the final triumph of truth and freedom. 🙂
And please … call me Pat. 🙂
…Pat….your video was much more informative and coherent than the above waste of time…Thank you..and thank you Janice the Librarian ! LOL
Thanks for the kind words, Marcus.
Flim? as in ‘flimflam’??
Only Gore had the chutzpah to call an immensely convenient lie, the ‘inconvenient truth’.
HA, don’t be fergettin that Al Gore learned from his Father, ……. plus he had 8 years of free “understudy” education …….. thanks to two (2) of the most notorious “convenient lie” tellers in recent Political history.
With all due respect, the link I cited is from the Northwest Territories (Canada). The aboriginal population is more than 50% of the total.
I trust these people much more than I trust any number of out-of-touch PhDs from the south.
I want this movie/propaganda OUT of the public school system.
Along with Bill Nye, anti-science guy.
I think I would rather it was left in the system and used as an example of how to influence people by telling lies.
A modern example of a snake oil salesman.
As far as it being a “debate,” it is like a race between Scott Denning in his running shoes up against Jay Lehr in his Formula 1 (race car) at the Indy 500. The facts are so overwhelmingly on the side of the science realists that it’s no contest. In fact, it is so pitiful, it’s hard to even laugh….. poor guy.
However, this is a GREAT teaching opportunity!
Anyone genuinely interested in learning the facts about human CO2 emissions and climate will see the truth. As far as AGW (or “climate change” or whatever they want to call it),
game over.
So! Tune in at the top of the hour, boys and girls, and watch Jay school Scott!
#(:))
Poor (hypocrite). Fixed! 🙂
If the race is short enough, a guy in running shoes can easily beat someone in a race car.
At the start of the Le Mann grand prix, the drivers have to foot race to their cars. So you got running shoes AND a race car for each guy.
Suggestion: If you want more people to watch such events — start promoting them more than 24 hours ahead….. (ahem).
Agreed.
But there is always video tape and the archive.
Just seeing this at 8/31 7:10 MDT.
Video tape? What’s that?
Videotape? Is that better than a View-Master?
P.S. Watched 30 minutes of the video (Live!) but I cannot hear it. I was watching for the supporting graphics they showed to see where the debate was going. I’ll get a lot out of comments.
SMC: More important, where can one get a video tape machine? I understand they went the way of the dinosaurs—extinct.
I actually saw a VCR/DVD combination machine at Wal-Mart a few weeks ago.
I was tempted to take a picture of it.
I’m going to watch, but if it runs over the “Stratosphere Lounge” at 9 I’m switching.
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/the-stratosphere-lounge
For anyone who tunes in early, they are re-running last week’s cynicism/snark edition with the “mirror universe” Bill Whittle. ie; screaming lib, before the live episode later.
Interesting, Demming’s 3 “S”s of Climate Change, and neither one is the word “Science”.
Typo – “Denning”, not “Demming”.
Re: Denning opening statement
“movie is pop culture” — heh
“Not really my go to source…” (lol)
Not so much concerned about accuracy (oh, brother) of movie
Simple — stupid! Equating heat-in-heat-out thermodynamics science to AGW’s conjecture about the climate of the EARTH and human CO2.
Serious — Oooh, boy, we have to do something about….. what? Never proved any problem exists (from human CO2 emissions)
Solvable — Completely unsupported nonsense. There is no KNOWN technology to substitute for fossil fuels. None.
Gread: D+
1. Typo (real time is hard, you guys!): “Grade” (D+, yes D+!)
2. Lehr opening:
CO2 is plant food. No historically significant warming at all. PPM’s of CO2 are much higher even just in that theater. In short: CO2 is good and there is NO evidence proving human CO2 emissions cause climate to change. Computer simulations are worthless.
Grade (so far): A- (a bit tighter presentation would make it an A)
**break — Gotta go outside with the dog, now —
Lehr re: polar bears — GREAT command of the facts
For THIS “debate” — He should have FIRST addressed directly what Gore alleged in the movie and quickly refuted that directly, THEN give a mini-dissertation about polar bears.
So, Lehr is wonderfully informed, but, needs help with a “jury-persuading” orderly (for winning an argument before a jury) presentation.
Denning re: polar bears — very weak attempt to undermine Lehr by (cleverly disguising it as talking about himself) saying “I (really WE, thus, HE) am not an expert on polar bears”
PBs = “A side issue” (and thus D. sidestepped the issue)
Polar Bears hunt on the ice because seals raise their pups there. Take away the ice and the seals will have to stay on land. If you care about polar bears warm things up, so the polar bears can out-run the seal pups on land. (sarc mode off)
Good point!
Exactly. They would adapt.
I do not see where there is any sarcasm; It is just common sense.
OB- I should have said ‘out-run those cute and cuddly baby seals on land.’
Nature does not care who wins the struggle for continued existence, only we do, and the greens seem to be especially fickle with their affections. Once they cared more for the baby seals, now for the bears that eat them. Of course the greens will say that there should be a balance, but “balance” is a human concept, and in terms of evolution a temporary condition. Nowadays any mention of polar bears reminds me of an old Glenn Beck skit about the annual holiday adds showing polar bears and penguins sharing sodas- it went something like this:
Glenn- I just love those adds where they show the polar bears and the penguins getting along together. Why can’t we be like that?
Stu- Actually Glenn, polar bears and penguins never meet. Polar bears are from the north pole and penguins are from the south pole.
Glenn- That’s a shame, they would probably like each other.
Stu- Actually Glenn, the bears would probably eat the penguins.
Glenn- (surprised) Really? They would eat the penguins?
Stu- Yes Glenn. But as I said they would never meet, except maybe in a zoo by accident.
Glenn- Well if they don’t eat penguins what do they eat?
Stu- Mostly seals.
Glenn- (shocked) They EAT seals?!?
Stu- Yes, but they prefer baby seals. They’re easier to catch.
Glenn- (aghast) They EAT baby seals, those cute and cuddly BABY SEALS?!?
Stu- Yes Glenn.
Glenn- You mean all this time we’ve been clubbing the wrong baby animals?!?!!
Re: Gore’s disgusting propaganda (equating fighting AGW to human rights)
Denning: AGW is a “problem.”
Wrong.
Then, he equates funding military and highway construction to funding the solution to a non-problem.
Hey, dummy, we HAVE cell phone tech — we do not have viable wind or solar tech.
Grade: F
*************************
Lehr: A weak (though accurate point — but there are more powerful refutations) point, that wind/solar, etc. have made no significant reduction in human CO2 emissions.
The KEY is: human CO2 emissions are irrelevant and saying otherwise is speculation and that is all.
All the doomsday scenarios have not come true.
Grade: C
I apologize for the “dummy.” Just frustrated with his half-truths and nonsensical assertions (and clearly attempting to double-down on Algore (but with a new-and-improved version)).
Let the dummy apologize for himself! Lol!
John H. — lol. Yes, indeed! 🙂 (and thanks for the fix re: “poor little…”)
Re: Kilimanjaro glacier sublimation
Lehr: Temp. has been and is still below freezing — BAM!
Grade: A
Denning: Every mountain range in the world — STILL does not support his case. Snowpack in CO is his only data to link his unsupported UNSUPPORTED assertion that human CO2 (“physics” makes it happen — oh, brother) caused it.
DENNING IS JUST ANOTHER ALGORE WANNABE!!! aAAARRGH!
Grade: F
Jay missed an opportunity when he said Kili’s glaciers were 11,000 years old, and have been shrinking for hundreds/thousands of years. 11,000 years ago was AFTER the ice age, near the interglacial max, which means those glaciers (ice caps, really) are a product of a wetter (and warmer!) climate. The shrinkage occurs when the climate is cooler & drier, as seems to have happened in the Indian Ocean basin some timee ago. The most rapid ice loss up there was over a hundred years ago, and in the past decade the ice cap seems to have stabilized at a level compatible with the current climate.
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/lonnie_thomson_again_snow_cap_disappearing_from_mount_kilimanjaro/
Jay’s counter about deforestation is supported by some, but doesn’t quite jive with the history of the ice. But Jay & I are both sure it’s not due to global warming!
BTW, Gore’s photos compared mostly seasonal snow, not ice. So one photo was taken at the end of the rain/snow season, the other during the dry. It’s a common ruse for Kilimanjaro abusers, and Gavin used two photos like that – one taken right after a snow storm, the other during the dry – in his GW book, “Picturing the Warming” or something like that. But Gavin’s an even bigger liar than Gore.
Hey, I have photos of my backyard in Colorado taken just six months apart that really show rapid global warming!!
Denning: “Heat in = heat out.” If he says that again — grrrr. JUNK science.
Denning sounds an awful lot like that strange man, Larry Kummer of the Fabius Max thing
Is this the Janice Moore hour around here, or what?
I’m sorry, goldminor. I was having so much fun that (once again) I forgot. Not many people posting, so, I figured it wouldn’t matter. Will try to refrain in the future.
That was humor Janice.
Oh. (oops)
Denning speaks in generalities and relies on anecdotal evidence. He’s a Professor of Atmospheric Science, but his main argument seems to rely on GDP forecasts one hundred years from now made by economists using the same type of faulty computer models used in Climate Science. He also claims that Summer is warmer than Winter as proof of Global Warming.
No wonder these guys never want to discuss\debate the issue.
+1
… He also claims that Summer is warmer than Winter as proof of Global Warming.
And that Miami is warmer than Minneapolis also explains global warming.
Even though Miami vs. Minneapolis and Summer vs. Winter have no connection to CO2.
I saw this for the first time today – I know, pretty slow on the uptake – but I think this is what Denning was trying to say; http://www.theonion.com/article/scientists-trace-heat-wave-to-massive-star-at-cent-21088
…And he also keeps claiming that ALL his beliefs are based on Humans using 10 X the fossil fuels in the next 100 years than we have in the last 100 years ! Not Physically possible…
Imagine a GDP forecast made in 1916 for now. Or a CO2 emissions forecast.
Closing statements:
Denning: “20th century” (we’re in the 21st, buddy) tech solutions — free market solutions — doesn’t he realize that this NEGATES his point??? There is no non-fossil fuel related tech to replace it. Wind/solar are only possible due to NON-free market, tax/rate surcharge “solutions.” Their “final solution,” eh, okay, okay, I take that back. Heh.
Grade: F (used term “free market” completely incorrectly — he obviously has been sitting at home every night playing video games and not doing his homework or studying for any exams this quarter).
Lehr: GREAT facts (again) — a better written/ordered argument would help (a lot). Love his enthusiasm, but, a bit too “pound the pulpit” — more measured would be better and more likely to help a science truth seeker to listen to his words.
Grade: A- (content great — form and speaking style/manner needs a bit of improvement….)
Denning: “20th century” (we’re in the 21st, buddy) tech solutions …
Denning’s right; we do have a 20th century solution for fossil fuels.
Nuclear.
Yes! GO, NUCLEAR POWER!
We do have a great solution for fossil fuels- more fossil fuels. Is there a problem?
Lehr re: robots: Good point.
And, as a bonus, robots don’t exhale CO2!
But the plants that provide the electricity for them do.
Denning: “Heat causes Global Warming”
Ya think? LOL
And less heat causes cooling.
Can’t argue with that, either.
/grin
Reg Nelson
August 31, 2016 at 5:01 pm
Denning: “Heat causes Global Warming”
….That was the point in time that I stopped watching the video…
If only stupidly hurt, we would not have half the problems that we do in society….
Jay Lehr mis-stated the history of Hubbert’s predictions. Hubbert modeled global conventional crude oil which actually maxed out in 2005. See An Updated Version of the “Peak Oil” Story Gail Tverberg Our Finite World.
See World Liquids by Type
What Hubbert and Pickens got right about oil and what’s next.
Compare Hubbert’s accurate prediction of US production with actual production peaking in 1970
Every absorbtion spectrum of the atmosphere (there are dozens on the web) show the 15 micron band of lwir almost totally blocked by GHGs in the atmosphere. Doubling co2 would be like adding a second opaque window shade to a window. Will the room get any darker?
http://theresilientearth.com/?q=content/why-i-am-global-warming-skeptic
Jeff,
Another good analogy is this: If you are cold in bed and put on a blanket, it makes you a lot warmer, but if you put on another blanket it only makes you slightly warmer, and a third blanket does virtually nothing. In the case of the Earth we already have two blankets on, H2O and CO2. Adding a additional CO2 blanket (doubling from 270ppm) will have little effect, maybe not even with the precision we are able to measure it.
There are places on the planet that have very little H2O in the atmosphere.
The polar regions and deserts.
Polar regions: Few to no people live there. Are so far below freezing that a few degrees of warming won’t cause anything to melt. A few degrees of warming will also decrease the north south temperature gradient that drives most weather systems, meaning weather will become less violetn.
Deserts: Once again very few people live there, so if they get a little bit warming nobody will be harmed. They are already well above the freezing point for most of the year, so no ice to melt, even if there was enough water to form ice in the first place.
Then there are the well documented positive impacts of more CO2.
Paul- I disagree with the use of the blanket analogy. In your example the blanket is functioning as an insulator, and not as a barrier, per se. As everyone knows a well insulated house is easier to heat or cool, and if you leave the furnace or AC on the house gets warmer or colder than you want, because of the insulation effect. This is exactly the mistaken argument the greens make. I think it is better to make the point that the atmosphere is effectively opaque to infrared light already, and so already absorbing all the energy available. In other words a second black-out shade on a window won’t make a room any darker. You cannot make an opaque material (even a gas) more opaque by adding any amount of material to it. Please don’t use any analogy involving insulation effects- it is confusing and, more to the point, not what is happening.
Denning is STILL (what a one-note willy) banging the pseudo-free-market (for non-existent tech) drum.
Denning is a registered Democrat, according to published voter lists. But maybe he’s one of those free market Dems, like Hillary.
Not that technology really matters in this case anyway. There is no known or even imagined technology based on currently understood physical laws which will turn the negative EROI of windmills and solar power positive. So even if we can find a way to make them economically viable, they will still be non-viable from an energy return perspective.
To most leftists there is full blown communism, and everything else is a form of free-market.
D: If you take some CO2 and shine IR light through it, it warms up, therefore….. “We know for sure” … (some true statements and then… –>) then, ker-blang — fail:
CO2 UP. WARMING STOPPED. (head slap)
i.e., D. said the temp has gone up but failed to note that it has not gone up for nearly 20 years, now.
That because it has. Warming trend line 1996 to 2016 is +0.23 deg using WTI data. That’s 1.2 deg per century
Since 2006 release of Gore’s movie, WTI is up 0.28 deg
The trend line from 1998 – 2016, except for a short-lived spike (La Nina is on the way) is, to any statistically significant degree — 0. 18 years is “nearly 20” in my book.
Mary,
WTF is WTI ???
The only real global temperatures, the RSS and MSU satellite readings, haven’t warmed a lick in most college students’ lifetimes.
Mary,
That’s just false precision. The error bars for any temperature measurement, except possibly the satellites, are much larger than that. And no, you can’t use the law of large numbers to improve precision by averaging the readings of a bunch of different types of (uncalibrated) instruments. The errors are almost certainly not uniform.
Richard Keen… Everybody cherry picks their favorite temp data set. NASA ignores their own sat data and instead pushes GISS, which is the hottest and most manipulated data.
Skeptics insist on satellite data. I’m sure if it was the warmest, they would disown it.
That’s why I reference WTI… but it needs a new name. GCTI … Global Consensus Temperature Index. If you use that, then it is a 50-50 weighting of satellite and near-surface temps.
The GCTI is more robust and removes some (most?) of the observation argument from the debate. Everybody has to meet in the middle.
No matter which temperature series you use, there has been a continued warming trend….
20 years… total temp change
Hadcrut +.28
GISS +.37
RSS +.12
UAH +.13
10 years…
Hadcrut +.28
GISS +.29
RSS +.23
UAH +.26
Clearly, the warming has slowed from the 1978-2002 period… but it’s is very hard to argue that there has been “no warming”. Also, the agreement among series in the last ten years suggests that it is getting harder to “cook the books” with temperature observations. There are too many eyes on it.
Our statistical model expects a substantial drop in the next year and lower temperatures for the next 5 years. So, in 2021, I suspect we will be back to a legitimate argument that there has been “no significant warming” since 1998
One other note… weather and climate models are initialized every hour. Data is error checked and smoothed to get the best possible starting point for model runs. A global 2m Temp field is generated. This has been done for a long time with no concern about the hourly global climate record that it leaves behind. Interestingly enough, the last 20 years have shown a DROP of .04 deg in global 2m Temps. That is a very interesting finding and I would love to hear people more knowledgeable than me discuss the usefulness and implications of this data series.
Paul, it’s not just a problem with the temperature readings. It’s also a problem with there not being enough readings to begin with. Even if every weather station was accurate to .001C. The problem with spacial distribution would mean error bars of at a minimum, several degrees on the average temperature.
“I’m sure if it was the warmest, they would disown it.”
I love the way alarmists assume everyone else is as corrupt as they are.
Do you know what make RSS and MSU really different from all the warmist’s temperature records? RSS and MSU don’t need to be ‘adjusted’ every single year to make the past look cooler then the present.
I’d say I’ll start trusting Warmist data when they stop fiddling with it, but nope, sorry. I stopped trusting the Climate Faithful for good about the time Peter Gleick forged the Heartland memo, got caught in less then a week, and all the true believers just brushed it off. Fake but accurate has become the rallying cry of the Left every time they get caught in their lies. It’s how they are trained to think. Noble Cause Corruption, assuming you see their grab for absolute power and wealth as ‘Noble’.
D: “house of cards” scare tactic — detracts from his agreement that human ingenuity can solve our problems, but, at least a very tepid lukewarm nod to that particular fact. Baby steps…. (oh, boy, in about 5 years, maybe D will be ten yards farther along the road to truth….. come on, little D, you can do it….. ccccccooooommmmme on…..)
And COCA COLA gets some screen time (lol) — yay! 🙂
Coke is it! heh
For PETE’S SAKE, Denning — your pleading and pleading for “think hard” for free market solutions is like pleading and pleading for scientists and engineers in 1750 to JUST THINK HARD AND WE CAN GET TO THE MOON. There are solutions!!!!! Don’t give up.
(not to mention, that D’s solutions are completely UN-necessary)