Guest Post By Walter Dnes
In continuation of my Temperature Anomaly projections, the following are my August projections, as well as last month’s projections for July, to see how well they fared.
The Data Sources
The latest data can be obtained from the following sources
- HadCRUT4 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4/data/current/time_series/HadCRUT.126.96.36.199.monthly_ns_avg.txt
- GISS http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
- UAH http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0beta/tlt/tltglhmam_6.0beta5.txt
- RSS ftp://ftp.ssmi.com/msu/monthly_time_series/rss_monthly_msu_amsu_channel_tlt_anomalies_land_and_ocean_v03_3.txt
- NCEI https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/global/globe/land_ocean/p12/12/1880-2016.csv
At time of posting, all 5 monthly data sets were available through July 2016. The NCEP/NCAR re-analysis data runs 2 days behind real-time. Therefore, real data through August 29th is used, and the 30th and 31st are assumed to have the same anomaly as the 29th.
August will be the 13th consecutive month that sets a new record for that specific calendar month. I.e. August 2015 was the hottest August in NCEP/NCAR data to that time; September 2015 was the hottest September to that time; October 2015 was the hottest October to that time, etc. NCEP/NCAR data goes back to January 1948.
The global NCEP/NCAR anomaly (HadCRUT/GISS/NCEI) and the UAH-proxy subset anomaly were little-changed from last month. Most of the globe cooled slightly, while Antarctica warmed significantly. Because the RSS analysis only reaches down to 70°S, RSS missed the Antarctic warmth, and its proxy NCEP/NCAR anomaly fell noticably.
The graph above is a plot of recent NCEP/NCAR daily anomalies, versus 1994-2013 base, similar to Nick Stokes’ web page. The trendlines are as follows…
- Black – The longest line with a negative slope goes back to early August, 2015, as noted in the graph legend. This is near the start of the El Nino, and nothing to write home about. Reaching back to 2005 or earlier would be a good start.
- Green – This is the trendline from a local minimum in the slope around late 2004, early 2005. To even BEGIN to work on a “pause back to 2005”, the daily anomaly has to drop below the green line.
- Pink – This is the trendline from a local minimum in the slope from mid-2001. Again, the daily anomaly needs to drop below this line to start working back to a pause to that date.
- Red – The trendline back to late 1997. Again, the daily anomaly needs to drop below this line to start working back to a pause to that date.