From the ignoring natural variation with confirmation bias department
Brian Lindauer writes
Apparently it IS worse than we thought…
A new paper published in Nature purports to find a connection between mid-nineteenth century warming and the beginning of the industrial revolution. And, since no correlation is too small to be a causation, this is now enough proof that man has been causing warming for as long as we can remember!
Interestingly enough, the reconstructions used show a connection between tropical oceanic warming and northern hemisphere continental warming…but not a “synchronous” warming trend in the southern hemisphere. According to the abstract, this is problematic for the researchers, since, you guessed it, the model simulations don’t match. The conclusion? Instrument records must be inadequate.
In fairness, it’s probably an accurate statement to suggest that nineteenth century instrument records are insufficient to tease out an anthropogenic signal from the noise of natural variability, especially in the southern hemisphere. What’s instructive about the conclusion, though, is the forthright admission of bias towards believing the models over instrument records.
The story is available at Nature for a nominal fee. The above synopsis was gleaned from the abstract only. Since my therapy concluded, I no longer feel an obsessive urge to hurt myself by reading full articles in Nature, so I offer no comment on what the rest of the research might imply.
The abstract: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v536/n7617/full/nature19082.html
(Anthony) FYI, here is the press release, note the link at the end gives open source access:
Humans have caused climate change for 180 years
An international research project has found human activity has been causing global warming for almost two centuries, proving human-induced climate change is not just a 20th century phenomenon.
Lead researcher Associate Professor Nerilie Abram from The Australian National University (ANU) said the study found warming began during the early stages of the Industrial Revolution and is first detectable in the Arctic and tropical oceans around the 1830s, much earlier than scientists had expected.
“It was an extraordinary finding,” said Associate Professor Abram, from the ANU Research School of Earth Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science.
“It was one of those moments where science really surprised us. But the results were clear. The climate warming we are witnessing today started about 180 years ago.”
The new findings have important implications for assessing the extent that humans have caused the climate to move away from its pre-industrial state, and will help scientists understand the future impact of greenhouse gas emissions on the climate.
“In the tropical oceans and the Arctic in particular, 180 years of warming has already caused the average climate to emerge above the range of variability that was normal in the centuries prior to the Industrial Revolution,” Associate Professor Abram said.
The research, published in Nature, involved 25 scientists from across Australia, the United States, Europe and Asia, working together as part of the international Past Global Changes 2000 year (PAGES 2K) Consortium.
Associate Professor Abram said anthropogenic climate change was generally talked about as a 20th century phenomenon because direct measurements of climate are rare before the 1900s.
However, the team studied detailed reconstructions of climate spanning the past 500 years to identify when the current sustained warming trend really began.
Scientists examined natural records of climate variations across the world’s oceans and continents. These included climate histories preserved in corals, cave decorations, tree rings and ice cores.
The research team also analysed thousands of years of climate model simulations, including experiments used for the latest report by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), to determine what caused the early warming.
The data and simulations pinpointed the early onset of warming to around the 1830s, and found the early warming was attributed to rising greenhouse gas levels.
Co-researcher Dr Helen McGregor, from the University of Wollongong’s School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, said humans only caused small increases in the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere during the 1800s.
“But the early onset of warming detected in this study indicates the Earth’s climate did respond in a rapid and measureable way to even the small increase in carbon emissions during the start of the Industrial Age,” Dr McGregor said.
The researchers also studied major volcanic eruptions in the early 1800s and found they were only a minor factor in the early onset of climate warming.
Associate Professor Abram said the earliest signs of greenhouse-induced warming developed during the 1830s in the Arctic and in tropical oceans, followed soon after by Europe, Asia and North America.
However, climate warming appears to have been delayed in the Antarctic, possibly due to the way ocean circulation is pushing warming waters to the North and away from the frozen continent.
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A video, video news release, images, FAQ, and a copy of the research paper is available at https://cloudstor.aarnet.edu.au/plus/index.php/s/4pQheVzMddCXwJN.
“It was an extraordinary finding,” said Associate Professor Abram who never thought of searching for.
The mid 19th century is when carbonated beverages started to become popular. I’ll bet the popularity of carbonated beverages matches the rate of warming. Coincidence? Give me a million dollar grant and I’ll tell make a computer model say anything you want on the subject.
They’re just people , think of the children!!
That’s right. They have to get the money to send their kids through university somehow!
Also interesting: The Anthropogenic Greenhouse Era Began Thousands of Years Ago — quote from the abstract:
Actually, the correlation of global temperature with the industrial revolution is only “good” but not great. The correlation with the use of self powered locomotives on steel rails is far greater. If you look carefully, you can even explain the “pause” correlating with reduced rail traffic. It’s probably the vibration of the wheels on the rails causing a sympathetic vibration in air born water vapor which changes the climate feedback terms.
just testing – are all my posts disappearing, or did I inadvertently trip a wire?
Must be some strange wire. Mods, could you please retrieve my previous post from the dustbin if possible? Thank you.
There is an article on this at The Conversation
http://theconversation.com/the-industrial-revolution-kick-started-global-warming-much-earlier-than-we-realised-64301
I notice that Gergis is involved.
Of course there’s correlation, it’s the causation that matters. Did a more favorable climate lead to the Industrial Revolution, did industrialization lead to a more favorable climate or did a more favorable climate arise as the result of natural variability? Either way, we should be grateful for the favorable climate we currently enjoy as it won’t last forever and no amount of CO2 will change this inevitability.
the belching smokestacks back in the 19th century were burning coal without scrubbers and without sulfur plants so they must have emitted a heck of a lot of SO2
SO2 is known to increase the reflectivity of clouds and cause cooling
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/258/5079/117
is that in the model?
also, in the hadcrut data, 1850-2014
no correlation between emissions and warming or changes in atmos CO2 or oceanic CO2
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2662870
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2725743
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2642639
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2669930
This is a sign of desperation on the part of the alarmists. Their chance to exploit the El Niño peak is gone, chilling has begun, and the “hottest year evah!” nonsense is shamed by any daily weather stats from key years in the 1930s. The cooked-books scandals have confessed inconvenient truths. The retro-newspaper clips and photos easily undermine their breathless claims about each weather event being “unprecedented”. So, they are putting most of that recorded history to the right of the temporal starting line for their Aztec-panic. Call it….operation Control-alt-Delete. They want to entirely disarm folks like Roger Pielke Jr,, Tony Heller, etc.
The right photo and/or newspaper clipping from the late 1800s, early 1900s eviscerates millions of dollars worth of panic-pimping from the likes of George Soros and his alarmist legions. A simple inventory of well-documented weather events logged faithfully by a culture liberated from the daily grind of finding our next meal and connected by telegraph and railroads betrays the alarmist howls about hurricanes, tornadoes, droughts, floods, and wildfires possessed by CO2 demons.
This is their “New Testament”. The 10 Commandments are out, the Golden Shower Rule is in. Humans do unto climate wherever and whenever they are, so don’t bother looking for a modern manifestation of a human signal, for original sin has been found – and it predates scrutiny.
Mic drop.
thank god for tony heller. they can’t get away with it any more. tony is watching.
Not much to add to the posts above, but just gotta say something – been smoldering since I heard this stuff on ABC (Aust) radio a couple of days back. So here goes ..
Yep, only need to read the newspapers of the early 1700’s The Times, London (available on line still I think) to wonder who thought this ” research” was worthwhile, much less necessary. Back then official numbers of deaths due to the appalling cold that followed the Medieval Warm Period (Ladies in low cut tops, men in tights, mead, wine, party time) were published regularly. The Thames being frozen over for weeks on end – long enough for annual Ice Festivals – suggests that water mills weren’t much use. Nor were there any helicopters around to spray hot water to de-ice windmill blades, so things must’a been kinda miserable. Could it be? Could it possibly be that a period of natural warming helped the Industrial revolution build up steam? Think Minoan Warm Period, Roman Warm Period (the poor old Romans, despite surviving Asterix and Oberlix , incest, debauchery, corruption, treachery and all sorts of other good stuff were finally brought to grief largely by a cooling period to which has been attributed crop failures and (by me) the introduction by the dreaded Hun of winter N-S excursions to the Costa Del Sol, that conflicted with Rome’s E-W supply lines.
The worrying things really are the hermetically sealed and incredibly uninformed minds of the Warmistas and the letter box slit through which they view and attempt to comprehend and direct the Universe.
Next up, they will backdate the birth of their phantom menace to some time before the early 1700’s. They have to do this in steps to minimize laughter emissions.
Asterically funny.
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This article is serious? How did it get past peer review?
It’s also a new normal in peer review world, aka free pass for the right minded.
Going to have to trade in my 1850 model SUV, never knew is was to blame….
Even Mann refutes the study, noting that much ir not all of the early warming was just the effect of coming out of the LIA. Interesting he went and opened that can of worms. If the early warming was due to coming out of the LIA, has a component of the 20th Century warming also been ongoing rebound from the LIA?
Who ever carried out the peer review needs a refresher course in basic statistics. Complete farce.
The 1800s is nothing, Ruddiman has long ago already proposed that human activity thousands of years ago, not just smoke but agriculture and associated methane emissions already started changing climate way back then.
What this shows is that AGW is based on a profound mental illness centered on self-loathing, reviving the self flagellation and hatred of bodily desires that was cultivated by dark age and medieval European monasticism. This is made clear by the existence of an organisation near the heart of the AGW movement called VHEM or voluntary human extinction movement. It plays into this narrative and self-loathing that there can be no innocent human activity. If we farm or build or keep warm or travel – each of these piles up as a burden of sin and an offence in the nostrils of Gaia. Then numinous dread of an angered deity leads to acts of violence against others or self harm fuelled by self loathing. Taking away affordable electricity from people is an example of this.
So, if this is to be believed, then the only way to save the planet is to only use the same amount of energy that was used at the dawn of the 19th century. Population of less than a billion people that had no phones, no lights, no motor cars. Just how many people do they plan to kill?