A clear demonstration of model uncertainty in predicting ahead 7 days is evident in the difference in output for two highly used forecast models, one says we’ll have a signicant tropical storm (Hermine if it reaches that level) the other says it will dissipate. Which one is right? Who knows at this point.
Tropical Weather Expert Dr. Ryan Maue writes on Twitter:
Two 7-day weather models … European (ECMWF) vs. American (GFS) Major Gulf hurricane vs. nothing.
#uncertainty
And wow, is he right, what a difference. Here they are, side by side:
He adds:
11 years ago same place we were watching Katrina and didn’t know where it was going. Same quandary today
#Invest99L
NHC Atlantic ops notes:
USAF finds system still lacking close circulation & become significantly less organized during past 24 hours.
#99L
We live in interesting times.
Lots of rain; this has to be pulling a lot of heat out of this hurricane alley. This hurricane season may be yet another dud.
Your kids may never see….a hurricane landfall.
I think into Sept. and Oct.this year, your kids may see one…Cat-3…
Anthony asks;
“…one says we’ll have a signicant tropical storm (Hermine if it reaches that level) the other says it will dissipate. Which one is right? Who knows at this point.”
I believe someone might, because I believe there are ways that such a “hit or miss” situation can be effected by humans . . (with lots of planes that can spray things into such a weather system (and perhaps effect it’s path).
Therefore, given the current situation, both in terms of what to me is an obvious desire for societal disruption on the part of at least some with serious power, and the now waning scientific credibility of the whole HAGW ( ; ) I suspect it will become something that further exacerbates the flooding etc, that already plagues the area.
No, that’s all wrong John. It’s affect not effect.
We have better communication these day of extreme weather events taking place ignoring those named storms crossing the UK which are pure propaganda and help no one. The people in Italy who suffered in the recent earthquake had no warning that it was about to happen and no time to get away.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/cape-breton-wind-turbine-collapse-inspection-enercon-1.3735802
Gone with the wind…
It won’t be like the other Oscar nominated film in that year, The Wizard of Oz, it isn’t a cyclone Dorothy .
The occasional storm is Climate Hormesis.
Any thoughts about when it gets into the warm waters of the Gulf – past Florida??