The 'Great Arctic Cyclone of 2016' turned out to be not so great for sea ice doomsters

Last week I mentioned how WeatherUnderground was touting the ‘Great Arctic Cyclone of 2016’ as being a repeat of the ice crusher cyclone in the summer of 2012. People that want to see Arctic sea ice reach new lows, so that they can shout things like “See, told you! Climate change!” were banking on it to bring sea ice extent to new record scarcity, accompanied by much wailing and gnashing of teeth, while secretly grinning to themselves “take that, deniers”. It’s a strange bunch of people, in my view, that rally around wanting to see such things happen.

So far, NSIDC hasn’t shown much of an impact from the GAC16, and in the last couple of days, ice has upticked slightly as it regrouped (magnified inset mine):

Source: http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

The storm last week, if it had major impact, would have put the plot closer to the green 2012 line. We are now just about a month away from the seasonal minimum, which usually occurs somewhere between Sept 15th and 25th. There’s still the possibility that another cyclone might roar through and save the day for the doomsters, but it looks like NSIDC and NASA could well be correct.

It seems those that were touting the GAC16 have now gone quiet about it, as there doesn’t seem to be any new mentions of the “Great Arctic Cyclone of 2016” popping up. Be assured though that we’d never [hear] the end of it had it turned out to beat the Arctic cyclone of 2012 in ice breaking capability. Of course, the caveat here is that weather is not climate.

Meanwhile, Professor David Wadhams doubles down on his “ice free” predictions with a new book: A Farewell to Ice.

Wadhams prediction from June this year contained his usual doominess.

“My prediction remains that the Arctic ice may well disappear, that is, have an area of less than one million square kilometres for September of this year,” he said.

“Even if the ice doesn’t completely disappear, it is very likely that this will be a record low year. I’m convinced it will be less than 3.4 million square kilometres [the current record low].

“I think there’s a reasonable chance it could get down to a million this year and if it doesn’t do it this year, it will do it next year.

“Ice free means the central part of the Arctic and the North Pole is ice free.”

But, both NSIDC and NASA have said since then that a record low isn’t likely, much less ice free:

NSIDC:  ‘A new record low September ice extent now appears to be unlikely.”

NASA: ‘…highly unlikely that this year’s summertime sea ice minimum extent will set a new record’

But there’s always that hope for doom next year. So far, Wadhams track record on this point has been pretty dismal. Plus, he keeps moving the goalposts.

And, it seems none of Wadhams professional and private peers who made sea ice predictions for the Sea Ice Prediction Network this year agree with his forecast, not one said below 1 million square kilometers:

Source: https://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2016/august

Sad when nature just won’t kowtow to the doomsters, isn’t it? But, human history is fraught with visionaries who said impeding doom is right around the corner. It’s a lifestyle choice I suppose.