From the Better-Than-We-Thought Dept: Major Diseases Are In Decline

Good News Update by Kip Hansen

 

Science is a wonderful thing.  As time moves on, in a single direction,  Science, as an endeavor, discovers new things and improves our lives.   Sometimes though, things get better, and we don’t know why.

That’s the news from Gina Kolata,  Health & Science reporter at the NY Times, in an article dated JULY 8, 2016, titled A Medical Mystery of the Best Kind: Major Diseases Are in Decline. [ here ].

The Good News:

“…Hip fractures, [incidence]… rates have been dropping by 15 to 20 percent a decade over the past 30 years.”

“The exemplar for declining rates is heart disease. Its death rate has been falling for so long — more than half a century — that it’s no longer news. The news now is that the rate of decline seems to have slowed recently.”,

“Dementia rates, too, have been plunging. … a 20 percent decline in dementia incidence per decade, starting in 1977.”

“Until the late 1930s, stomach cancer was the No. 1 cause of cancer deaths in the United States. Now just 1.8 percent of American cancer deaths are the result of it.”

“Rates of disease after disease are dropping. Even the rate of ‘all-cause mortality,’ which lumps together chronic diseases, is falling. And every one of those diseases at issue is linked to aging.” [which is increasing as the baby Boomers age].

The cause of this news?  In each case, the definitive answer is:

“Dr. Steven R. Cummings of the California Pacific Medical Center Research Institute and the University of California at San Francisco. When asked [regarding hip fractures] what else was at play, he laughed and said, “I don’t know.”

That answer, a basic “we don’t really know”,  is the same for each of the declining diseases – medical advances just don’t fully  explain the declines.

Kolata’s coverage is a breath of fresh air in science reporting, where we are more usually subjected to yet-another alarming report of impending personal disaster .  [Cue music:  “It Ain’t Necessarily So”] caused by vague “chemicals and toxins” [sic] in our environment.

Sometimes [Cue music] we just “got to admit it’s getting better”.

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146 thoughts on “From the Better-Than-We-Thought Dept: Major Diseases Are In Decline

  1. But, but, but, everyone knows that the current generation’s diet and excess consumption of sugar is destroying their bodies.

    • older killer diseases are showing decline; but the new diseases that put humans on medicare life long have been rising with the new food & agriculture system that is benefitting multinational companies. This is the new order.
      Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy

      • The reason is likely due to the general increase in food quality and quantity as a direct result of CO2 fertilization. Eating poor quality food leads to a whole host of diseases and eating insufficient quantities of food leads to immune system stress and opens the body up for further disease invasion.

      • urban congested life under unhygenic conditions [floods leading to epidemics], pollution, food are the major ills of the modern society leading health hazards.
        Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy

      • Yeah yeah, companies make more money selling sugar than selling fat. Evidence? Or is that simply no necessary any more?

      • I believe diseases do not “put people on Medicare.” Maybe you meant Medicaid?
        The ” major ills of the modern society leading [to] health hazards” would be corrupt governments.

      • The reason is likely due to the general increase in food quality and quantity

        In actuality, an increase in food quality and quantity has not changed that much during the past 60 years or so.
        But what has increased drastically during that time has been the public’s access (especially the adolescent children) to quality food of sufficient quantity.
        A malnourished child makes a good candidate for a short-lived sickly adult.

    • Well I thought that hip fractures were commonly caused by osteoporosis. Apparently calcium supplements have helped bring that down.
      The usual effect, an old person falls down and fractures their pelvis due to osteoporosis weakening.
      Except that apparently is not what actually happens.
      What seems to happen is that a weakened hip due to OP suddenly fails and the person falls down. This usually freaks them out because they don’t remember tripping on anything to cause the fall.
      If they do recover, they are paranoid about tripping (which didn’t happen) so they rely on walkers, and canes, or wheel chairs after that, not trusting their stability.
      An elderly in law of mine had exactly that happen, and had no confidence in her walking for the rest of her life.
      But you would have a hard time convincing Californians that diseases are on the way out. We import them from wherever they are available on this planet. Even diseases which were supposedly extincticated, such as tuberculosis.
      G

      • My grandmother broke her hip and the doctor told us that what often happens is the hip breaks CAUSING the person to fall. Go figure. She had the same reaction after the break, though she had the additional complication of previous limited mobility due to a stroke in her early 40s. I do not remember her ever being nervous or apprehensive about anything in the decades prior to her fall. 😛
        My mom stopped taking us kids to the county health clinics for vaccinations/care when she read about how many people came through with diseases that were not common to the U.S. Considering the potential danger to the public, I think we should at least consider screening people for diseases when they enter the country, citizen, resident, or tourist. If we managed to eradicate or almost eradicate something, we should not risk bringing it back. I prefer living in a place where polio, measles, whooping cough, cholera, malaria, tuberculosis, etc. are rare or non-existent.

  2. “Major Diseases Are In Decline”
    Well, I’m glad to see that no one bothered to check the impact of unfettered, uncontrolled mass “migration” into western countries with people whose home countries did little to eradicate major diseases. I’m sure the “migration” will have absolutely no effect on this trend.

    • Good point in earlier days of immigration we had measures in place (Ellis Island) to mitigate spreading of disease into the US. Now we have the elites with an agenda to fundamentally change America just dumping masses of immigrants, some illegal, into poorer neighborhoods with reports of return of diseases previously eradicated. How many immigrants are being sent to places like Hollywood ,Chappaqua or Nantucket! where the elites live?

      • I can’t help but notice how many fall into the media spin of saying immigrant, when what is really meant is illegal immigrant. Legal immigrants still have to obtain all of the required vaccinations and doctor certifications prior to entering the US. Obviously, illegal immigrants have none of that. As a result, there is a return of polio, among other diseases, which had been eradicated in my younger days. I can remember the banner headlines making that proud pronouncement back in the early1960s that polio had been defeated.

      • goldminor July 10, 2016 at 5:59 pm: “I can’t help but notice how many fall into the media spin of saying immigrant, when what is really meant is illegal immigrant. Legal immigrants still have to obtain all of the required vaccinations and doctor certifications prior to entering the US.
        Ummm … No, in a word.
        See, the mass OTM* “child” influx coming across the border seeking ‘asylum’ under provisions in US law WHICH is legal BUT is sans the ‘protections’ you mention such as “required vaccinations and doctor certifications”.
        *Other Than Mexican
        .

    • Amazing isn’t it…..
      Every animal, plant, bird, fish, and food…coming into this country has to have a health inspection in it’s originating country first…and/or go through quarantine here. So other animals, plants, fish, and birds don’t get sick.
      When we travel to those countries we know what shots, inoculations, and precautions we have to take and we know we’re at risk.
      But when you talk about them coming here….it’s anti-immigrant

    • with people whose home countries did little to eradicate major diseases….
      We have to all kinds of precautions… shots, inoculations, pills, etc to visit their countries..
      …and sometimes see a tropical disease doctor when we get back

  3. “We don’t really know.”
    A refreshing admission.
    Some may take that as a sign of “weakness” or lack of expertise.
    I take it as a sign honesty.
    There is nothing dishonorable about being honest.

    • Except in these four specific examples we at least directionally really do know. See comment below. So again MSM (NYT) got it just wrong, no different than with climate change. Not honest reporting, stupid reporting.

      • I don’t think I quite understand (Too often my usual state. 😎 your point.
        I read this as an expert in (fill in the blank) admitting “science” doesn’t know something as refreshing.

      • GD, my point was simple and made explicit below. In these cases, we do know at least directionally why medicine has improvd. To deny that rdlcts ignorance.

    • Thanks Bruce, I’m glad somebody’s on the ball.

      “…Hip fractures, [incidence]… rates have been dropping by 15 to 20 percent a decade over the past 30 years.”

      Global warming ! Less ice means less broken hips 😉

      Its death rate has been falling for so long — more than half a century — that it’s no longer news.

      That’s exactly the time-scale that anthropogenic forcing have been causing “most of” the global warming according to the IPCC. So this must also be an effect of climate change. After all “what else could it be?”
      The news now is that the rate of decline seems to have slowed recently.”,
      Voila! A hiatus, just like AGW. A “robust” confirmation of previous results.

      “Dementia rates, too, have been plunging. … a 20 percent decline in dementia incidence per decade, starting in 1977.”

      Well they obviously were not sampling climate scientists for this result but a more typical population sample. Again with a more precise date on when this started we see that this was exactly the time that temperatures really started taking off “due to AGW”.

      And every one of those diseases at issue is linked to aging.

      This is exactly as predicted by models: older people have had more time breathing “toxic” CO2 polluted air.
      Dr. Steven R. Cummings clearly is not up to date on methods of modern science. Hardly surprising that he has to admit : “we don’t really know”

      • Well we have known since the IGY in 1957/58 or was it 58/59 that old age leads to death, and is fairly easily prevented.
        g

  4. Finally, at last, reporting of good news. A breath of fresh air. Really refreshing in this day and age!
    Sent from my iPhone
    >

    • “Sent from my iPhone ”
      Wow you have an iPhone ? Really ? Super.
      I bet you can’t wait to tell everyone.

    • Greg — Really? Don’t you have any friends with iPhones that attach the “Sent from my iPhone ” auto-magically, totally without your permission or knowledge? — I agree, it is a rotten thing for Apple to do, but it isn’t Virgil’s fault.

      • It’s not just I-phone. This is what appears on a message when I send from my work phone::
        “Sent from my Verizon 4G LTE Droid”
        Similar message appears when sent from my personal Galaxy S6 through AT&T.

      • Kip Hansen July 10, 2016 at 3:28 pm
        Greg — Really? Don’t you have any friends with iPhones that attach the “Sent from my iPhone ” auto-magically, totally without your permission or knowledge? — I agree, it is a rotten thing for Apple to do, but it isn’t Virgil’s fault.

        “It isn’t Virgil’s fault”? Yes it is he should turn it off.
        People with IQ above room temperature can turn it off, and should, and do.

    • Virgil Russell on July 10, 2016 at 1:25 pm
      Sent from my iPhone
      – says he didn’t type it on the employers hardware from the cantina outside working time.

    • Have you also noticed that Olympic record breaking has increased, game over game, since the 1896 IOC Olympics were started. The Olympic record breaking tracks pretty closely to modern increases in industrial CO2. One could draw the conclusion that without increasing CO2, Olympic record breaking would cease. If we want to see future Olympic record breaking, we’d best have increasing CO2.

      • In 1896 every Olympic record wwas set, at least for those events in competition at the time. That’ll never be done again, probably because of increasing CO2.

  5. But, but, but the warming climate was supposed to extend the range of the heretofore scarce elephant mosquito that is large as a buzzard. This was supposed to infect people with all sorts of horrid diseases.
    In other news, it is thought that the onset of the medieval cooling period around 1300 was a factor in pushing the Chinese gerbil to migrate to the west and was the transmission vector that was later replaced by the black rat in Europe. Gerbils are regular flea factories. http://steamcommunity.com/app/412450/discussions/0/361787186439127193/

  6. A different perspective.
    Hip fractures are closely related to osteoporosis. The last few decades a number of quite effective preventative drugs have been developed, together with bone density scans indicating who needs them. The first bisphosphonate was approved in 1969. Much better ones became available in the 1990s (Fosamax) once the mechanism of action was fully understood in the 1980s.
    Heart disease is not down; its death rate is. That is a direct function of the development of implantable pacemakers, minimally invasive coronary artery stenting (especially left anterior decending), bypass surgery where stenting is contraindicated, and of statins to try to prevent atherosclerotic plaque progression by reducing liver produced chloresterol.
    Dementia is down because of earlier neurological interventions, for example better hypertension control (modern angiotensives like beta blockers and more recently the ARBs) to reduce frequent minor strokes which can cumulatively present as dementia (as with my maternal grandmother). The major reduction factor is that senile dementia is now a different diagnosis than Alzheimers, distinguished by short term memory impairment. Alzheimers is way up, offsetting senile dementia way down. Changing disgnosis.
    Stomach cancer is likely down for at least two reasons. More refrigeration, less preserved meats. (Nitrosamines are carcinogenic; salted meats are implicated). And ability treat ulcers, now known to be caused by H. Pylori infection (which discovery won a Nobel prize in medicine).
    Do these things fully explain the cited changes? Almost certainly not. But they go a long way. Stuff happens for a reason. Medicine has hardly stood still.

    • Hip fractures are falling (:) perhaps helped by a number of milder winters with less ice on the pavements,
      one more positive effect of the warmer climate.

    • Ristvan, I never cease to be amazed at the number of subjects of which you seem to have detailed knowledge. Always a name that causes me to stop and read.

      • Greg, since the mid 1990’s I have worked extensively in health care and energy. Climate is a hobby that arrived through the energy back door but has resulted in parts of 3 ebooks researched over 6 years. In the 1980’s my strategic consulting practice includeid big Pharma R&D portfolios. I worked with the British company where Sir Jimmy Black invented the first beta blocker. Met him. And from 1998- about 2010 worked extensively with the Mayo Climics on biochips/individualized medicine, anti-infectives, and cancer. The former head of Mayo Cancer Dr Frank Prendergast is a close personal friend. Stuff rubs off, I have a good memory, and Google makes it easy to brush up. Example: I knew about the osteoporosis bisphosphonates general history, but not the first approval or the first second generation approval. Two simple googles, total about 1 minute: 1969, Fosamax 1995.
        IMO google search has changed the world. Books, patents, images, technical papers all a few clicks away for free. What woild have taken days or have been impossible now takes minutes. And I like to be as factually precise as possible. Old consulting habit. Wrong got you fired and never invited back. Right got the next assignment.

    • Hip fractures are also down because of the number of handicap assistance devices, handicap parking and better awareness by seniors about avoiding fall situations/risk.

    • ristvan:
      Thanks for the details. I was going to ask why we would assume the NYT would do any better job researching a “good news” article than they typically do for the disaster ones. You answered my question — they don’t.

    • Here’s something else to throw in.
      Years ago I read about a study about fluoride. I don’t remember where I read it. Clinical Toxicology of Commercial Products (most likely, about fluoride itself) or something about fluoride in drinking water.
      The gist of if it was that a study was done to see if a treatment using fluoride would increase bone density vs the control group.
      It did.
      But the group with the fluoride treatment also had a greater occurrence of fractures.
      Did the fluoride group have more fractures because fluoride makes bones more brittle or because those who were in the study, upon learning their bone density had increased become “less cautious”?
      Someone will ask me for a reference. Sorry. I don’t have one. I saw it back in the late 80’s at the earliest.

      • GD, flouride helps reduce tooth cavities. Tooth enamal is calcium fluouroapatite. Little to do with osteoporosis, mechanisms elucidated in the 1980s. Bone is also calcium fluoroapatite, but in a completely different ‘hollow’ porous (hence stronger ‘honeycomb’ structure). Has to do with the ratios of osteoblasts and osteophores (as bone is constantly remodeling to heal minor stress fractures). That insight was the 1980’s key to unlocking better bisphosphonates.

      • I don’t have any fluoroappetite. Can’t imagine why they pollute our water with it. Why not add cough syrup to the water just in case the kiddies get the sniffles.
        With fluoridated water, and fluoridated tooth paste, and fluoride supplemental pills, kids are being poisoned by fluoride.
        The latter two are simple to eliminate. Just don’t buy supplement pills, and never buy toothpaste.
        No toothpaste actually guarantees to do anything. They do tell you to go to the dentist regularly and use their toothpaste, but they never tell you what happens if you just go to the dentist and don’t use their toothpaste.
        Well ordinary honey works just as well to get the kid to put the toothbrush in his mouth (hers too).
        Never bought toothpaste in my life; or shaving cream either. Dentist gave me enough toothpaste in a one or two ounce tube to clean the teeth of the entire Chinese Army. It will probably last for 50 years if I just don’t open it. My wife uses up a whole family size half liter tube in about a month. Most of it just goes in the sink.
        We have far too many do gooders just not satisfied with just leaving us alone.
        G

      • PS If I did see that in Clinical Toxicology of Commercial Products under Fluoride, it was the 3rd edition and the copyright was 1972.
        Perhaps that study contributed to the the understanding of some of what ristvan July 10, 2016 at 7:30 pm is referring too.

    • The NNT (number needed to treat) for the bisphosphonate class of drugs is “infinity.” Meaning, they’ve never been PROVEN to have actually prevented a single hip fracture, or you’d have to treat the entire population for that to theoretically happen. The side-effects for individuals are known to be damaging in some cases–spontaneous fractures of the jaw or femur. You’d be well-advised to put your money into sensible shoes, a cane and rug anchors instead of ingesting this stuff!

      • Stomach cancer is now thought to be strongly linked to one of the Helicobacter germs which is endemic to countries where human waste is used to fertilize crops. Since that is no longer done in countries with modern farming (beware, “organic!”) new cases are almost exclusively acquired in the Third World.

    • Reply to ristvan ==> Of course some of the improvement is due to advances in medical science! The two points of this little Good News Update are these: 1. Most reports in the MSM are about increases in these and other diseases, blaming them on whatever-the-latest-boogeyman is, usually by showing the the number of cases is rising with increasing population (as one would expect). 2. The attribution of causes for the declines (which are real by the way — stated as they are as rates) is refreshly acknowledges that despite the known advances in care, those advances do not account for the magnitude of the declines.
      The best example from the article is stomach cancer, for which there has been no advance in avoidance.
      I hope you read Gina’s piece in the NY Times, a feature of their The Upshot series. She specifically goes after the hip fractures story — and sums it up with the quote from a specialist in hip fractures (used in my bit above).
      Of course, your opinion may vary from the medical people Gina interviewed, but her piece at least shows some willingness of the medical world to acknowledge that good things can happen outside of their control. As in many other fields, the more scientific of us always want to imagine that any improvements are the result of our enlightened state — but, at least in these cases, the evidence is not there — at least not for the experts sought out for the article.

      • KH, sure. But to proclaim ignorance of first and second generation biphosphonate osteoporosous drugs is simply disingenuous– a low level inexpert doctor wrongly affirming a know nothing MSM assertion.

    • Actually much of what you say is not true. And of course the doctors involved in say hip fractures are well aware of osteopporosus, and so are not going to say “we don’t know.” To take osteoporosis, that is largely in women – yet hip fractures in men are down too. The incidence of heart disease is also down – in the UK for example the incidence of heart attacks in all age groups and for both sexes has declined markedly since the 1960s (adjusted for smoking). Oh and pacemakers are nothing to do with coronary heart disease, they deal with abnormal rhythms.
      As for statins, since all the research shows that levels of cholesterol are not correlated with CHD, how can statins be lowering heart disease?
      The evidence that nitrosamines are carcinogenic is non-existent. The evidence that preserved meat is carcinogenic is non-existent. Both claims are classic epidemiological junk science, based on tiny correlations and self-reported exposures.
      Medicine hasn’t stood still, it has gone backwards, obsessed with epidemiology since smoking was shown to be a real issue. Yet despite all the terrible warnings about our diet, lack of exercise, BMIs and so on, we have simply got healthier and healthier, and lived longer and longer and stayed healthier for longer.

    • Agree that treating ulcers more effectively is major cause of reduction in stomach cancer.
      A placebo effect seems to be in operation cause Unknown. Rates of breast cancer started dropping well before breast screening came in but once it came in. Same for TB started dropping once CXR came along. A bit quantum theory in that if you were able to see the illness it stopped being an illness.
      Heart disease you are missing the fact that stents were shown to not be that effective recently and the newer stents were worse.
      Same placebo effect at work.
      More awareness, less disease.
      Why, no one knows.

    • vukcevic July 10, 2016 at 2:00 pm: “Hip fractures are falling (:) perhaps helped by a number of milder winters with less ice on the pavements,
      What planet?

  7. Stupidity is still effecting a large number of humans. Hope they are working on a cure for it.

    • I dunno, rbabcock. I believe that according to US schools, everyone is above average now.
      Oh, and on the way home from fishing tonight, I heard a ‘public service’ commercial by the Government Student loan entity that now, “everyone can go to college.” Might as well announce the downward spiral of the value of a college education while they are at it. Pretty soon you’ll need a PhD to flip burgers.

  8. medical advances just don’t fully explain the declines…definitions and diagnosis have changed
    However, Immigrants in this country are bringing back Tuberculosis, Measles, Whooping Cough, Mumps, Scarlet Fever, and Bubonic Plague … so expect those to be on the rise

      • Relax Greg.
        What he left out was malaria, dengue fever, and parasites like ringworm. Malaria, especially, is galling because it used to be endemic in the US. It took a lot of time, money, and effort to eradicate it.
        It used to be that people knew that unbridled immigration posed a grave public health threat. Public health is, in fact, one of the reasons immigration was regulated in the US in the 20th century in the first place.
        The public health threat posed by immigration. Add that to the list of things we used to know, but do not know anymore.

      • TonyL July 10, 2016 at 3:24 pm
        Relax Greg.
        What he left out was malaria, dengue fever, and parasites like ringworm. Malaria, especially, is galling because it used to be endemic in the US. It took a lot of time, money, and effort to eradicate it.

        TonyL ringworm is not a parasite or a worm, it is a fungus curable with a couple of cents worth of ethanol.

      • Mr. Hansen,
        It seems entirely possible to me that lax immigration policies would lead to increases in communicable disease rates in destination countries . . so . . what’s the problem with discussing the matter?

      • Immigrants can bring diseases which have been eliminated in the host country; may not be “PC” but still a risk.

      • KIp—
        Political Correctness is a despicable and dangerous Lefttist tool used to shutdown debate, and explains why so many serious problems facing the US CANNOT be discussed, addressed and resolved, and why the US is currently on the edge of social and economic destruction.
        Using argumentum ad hominem logical fallacies against those with differing opinions is NOT an argument. PC IS assuring our own destruction from within.

      • I suppose we could talk about all the precautions we have to take to visit their countries…
        shots, inoculations, pills, etc

      • These anti-immigrant comments do not belong here at WUWT.
        …we recently banned people because of Ebola

      • Latitude July 11, 2016 at 5:51 am
        I suppose we could talk about all the precautions we have to take to visit their countries…
        shots, inoculations, pills, etc

        And don’t forget that some of those “old” diseases regain a foothold because some US citizens do not have their children vaccinated against them.
        A smaller contributing factor is that many doctors today have never seen a real case of, say, measles. Diagnose may take longer. And if a kid’s parents never had measles or were never vaccinated themselves? Most of those “childhood diseases” are much tougher on an adult who contracts them than they were on me when I was a kid. (Smallpox and polio are the only vaccines I know for sure I had back in the 60’s)
        People may be bringing them in from other countries but they are also bringing them into “fertile ground”.

        • “A smaller contributing factor is that many doctors today have never seen a real case of, say, measles”
          A huge factor is the incompetence of doctors who get more information about the most serious (but exceptional) cases of the infections than about diagnosis these childhood diseases.
          Reintroduction of mostly harmless childhood diseases may be a good thing. The vaccines aren’t even reliable.

      • Gunga Din,
        I suggest you research vaccines skeptically, because I was once a blind faith believer . . till I actually “opened my eyes” a bit . . Now I see it as another “settled science” realm, with gigantic monetary reward flowing to the settlers ; )

      • JohnKnight,
        I reread my comment and it does seem that I’m all for all vaccines.
        Smallpox, polio vaccines? True lifesavers. (BTW For me, it was late 50’s, not the 60’s.)
        Vaccines against the relatively harmless childhood diseases? If they had never been started then most of my comment would not be valid. Young adults of childbearing age would have gotten their immunity the old way. A kid in in the neighborhood has the measles? Guess who you’re going to play with today!
        But now we have a generation or two that didn’t gain natural immunity the old way when they were young.
        They’ve been vaccinated so there aren’t any kids with them in the neighborhood. More of a couple of generations have chosen not to be vaccinated and there was small chance they’d catch them. Not many carriers.
        Now the number of carriers is increasing.
        An example of a couple of policies resulting in one unintended consequence.

    • Well, a large part of the problem is people who refuse to bow to the pressure from our communist/marxist/whateverwe’recallingittoday, and refuse to vaccinate. 😛

    • “acementhead
      TonyL ringworm is not a parasite or a worm, it is a fungus curable with a couple of cents worth of ethanol.”
      Only if you like pain! Otherwise a few treatments with Lotrimin or other appropriate anti fungal would be indicated, and especially so if it’s in the crotch or other tender areas.
      BTW Malaria is by far the most prevalent vector borne disease resulting in the highest mortality world wide.

  9. I’m sure we probably can’t pinpoint precisely why, but I’ll throw out a few possibilities–better nutrition, better preventive medicine, better diagnostic capabilities, and better treatments.

      • Yes, it appears I was writing about the same time that your comments posted. I thought they were very insightful, especially the one about stomach cancer.

  10. If the uber-Greenists have their way and shut-down *everything* we’ll be back to the Dark-Ages quick-time: pestilence & famine; life-span max. =40 +/-; squalour & poverty. The boat we all sail in may need sails re-trimming, but don’t rock it lest we all drown.

  11. Imagine if doctors were like climate “scientists”. Blood-letting via leeches would be all the rage now.

    • Doctors are pretty much climatists. When they have no direct measures, they get away with proxies. The protective effect of the “anti-cancer” HPV vaccine is that women are sero-positive to both HPV variants of the vaccine. Oh, and some woman in the vaccine test wasn’t HPV virginal, she was already positive to some HPV variant, she was still included in the test. You can’t make that up!
      And no, sero-positive and immunized are synonyms, except in the post-modern “evidence based medicine”.

      • I cannot speak to the effectiveness of the HPV vaccine, but WaPo had an article a few weeks ago that featured doctors bemoaning the fact that so few teenage girls were getting it. Maybe they should try vaccinating the boys.

  12. Anti-inflammation drugs are sold over the counter all over the world (with some exceptions of course) & anti-biotics are largely available all over the world (exceptions exist) often without need for prescription. Post quotes reference to heart disease & age related all case mortality: both of which have relationship with what is most easily stated as low level on-going inflammation, which anti-inflammatory drug use can interrupt. Dementia was also highlighted & there was recent suggestion anti-inflammatory drugs affects are potentially preventative. Also, anti-biotics have long been researched for brain health & if anyone interested I suggest the most promising anti-biotic has been doxycycline, which should turn up a few free full on-line reports (cleaned house recently & can’t find my doxycycline papers now for posting leads).

  13. Everything in nature seems to balance out. Major diseases are in decline but that is offset by the increase in psychotic fear of climate change.

  14. There are more people than ever. If death from all causes is declining what are people dying of? Or have people ceased dying?

      • Increases of some cancer rates are the clear result of irresponsible “medical prevention” i.e. the increase of cancer screening by medical imaging:
        – breast
        – prostate
        – thyroid – not just Korea!
        The study which was used to launch and justify systematic breast cancer screening is now considered probably fraudulent.
        I advise people to exercice extreme caution WRT systematic cancer screening.
        Disclaimer: I have no medical qualification.

      • yup..if it was anything BUT pharma and medico errors thered be a massive outcry
        as it is..its known… but only to some, and the msm leaves it well alone..hmm? curious that!
        as for HPV vax if you have the hpv strain vaccinated for the risk increases by near 50% admitted BY Merk
        you can pick up hpv anywhere and even from birth, so screening PRIOR to vax should be mandatory..and is not.

    • Reply to Scott Scarborough ==> On the off-chance that your questions isn’t meant rhetorically — it just means that people are living longer.

  15. How about those motorized wheel chairs and scooters? How long have they been available?

  16. Wait!! So climate change is killing diseases? Nooooooooo!!! We need disease to save the planet from the humans!! Someone had to say it. Lefty needs to find a cloud behind this silver lining. Lol.

    • I like to mess with people who hate people by pointing out that you cannot be in favor of health care if you believe that overpopulation is a problem that must be solved. After all, nature’s way of keeping numbers low is disease, so providing medical treatment is defying Gaia. The only way to bring population numbers down is to increase the death rate and lower the birth rate. It is a lot easier to increase death rates than lower birth rates. I have a dream that one day I will be able to corner Bill Gates and call him out for his hypocrisy in calling for decreasing the population while funding life saving health care.
      I am certainly not calling for any action that would result in premature death or suffering, but it is fun to watch and listen as people try to justify railing against all those people who dare to exist while simultaneously calling for “universal health care”.

  17. Well, the timing seems to me to implicate tobacco use more than anything else I’m aware of . . ; )

  18. It was announced on the news just last night that the AIDS epidemic no longer a public health issue in Australia

    Key points:
    Number of AIDS-related deaths in Australia so low it is not recorded
    At peak in 1990s, about 1,000 Australians died each year
    End of AIDS is not the end of HIV

    “One of the problems we still have in Australia is people not getting tested, not knowing they’re infected with HIV, and turning up for their first test when they already have AIDS, or already have significant immune damage,” she said.
    Advocates are also setting their sights on the rest of the world, particularly in countries in the Asia-Pacific region, where 180,000 cases of AIDS and 1.2 million cases of HIV are reported each year.

    • Hmmm … announced, but, that is the status as presented by the health authorities, and, there may be ulterior, political reasons or even budgetary (money) reasons for doing so.
      They may even have a new classification for it, in which case it is now a shell game.

  19. Just goes to prove that CAGW is even more of a threat that anyone, and I mean anyone had imagined.
    Yes, we live in a Mary Poppins world, practically perfect in every way. And when those effects of CAGW finally kick-in in the latter half of this century (you know, the effects like temperature and sea level rise, the effects of severe weather, I mean the ones that haven’t shown up yet, you know, because like, we’re saving them up in the deep oceans, or whatever) these disease rates which have been declining until now will really skyrocket, beyond what anyone had predicted or even imagined! Hold on to your seats. 😉

  20. How about the root cause of our increased, healthy lifespan is prosperity? Prosperity is an almost completely unmitigated good. The greenies don’t get that at all.

    • Prosperity (global) would get my vote! A slightly warmer, CO2 enhanced climate will ensure that prosperity. A blessing, that history confirms. GK

  21. As bad as we sometimes think things are, on balance the human condition continues to improve. We humans have more and better food than ever. Live in generally more sanitary conditions with the vast majority of us consuming cleaner water. Have better health care and more extensively applied preventative medicine measures. And perhaps, most importantly, live in a time of relative peace which even if it doesn’t seem that way, allows the vast majority of us to avoid the depravations, filth, pestilence, and communicable diseases that war always brings with it.
    http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424053111904106704576583203589408180

  22. My generation was hopefully near the last to see the near eradication of many fatal diseases, better nutrition, improved living conditions and numerous medical advances, Two in my high school class
    (Texas ,1952) died of polio as did the baby down the street. We probably all had sublethal exposures and some alive still have effects. Also improved sanitation removed the spread of many parasites still a problem some places in the 1960s. What is called poverty today would have been mostly classified then as sometimes sparse but adequate diet.
    Parasites still are a serious problem in much of the world and their study as a discipline seems to be declining, although there have been many advances with new technologies. My major mentor was a parasitologist who understood the biological wonder and great potential of these often unseen biologically clever animals that affect all species. He was the director of a project that discovered a major disease of oysters that killed more than any oil spill. Their effects are often ignored in major ecological studies and restoration efforts.
    Glad to have lived this long (see first sentence), but sad to have seen so much lost history.

  23. “As time moves on, in a single direction”
    That’s the way it seems, but has it been proven?

  24. “Dementia rates, too, have been plunge”
    There’s still a lot of AGW “believers” on the list, though.

  25. Here’s one reason: more people can get wine.
    University of Reading Department of Food and Nutritional Sciences Professor Jeremy Spencer said: “These exciting results illustrate for the first time that the moderate consumption of champagne has the potential to influence cognitive functioning, such as memory.”
    Previous studies from the same university found that drinking two glasses of champagne per day could help your heart and circulation, and even decrease the risk of stroke and cardiovascular disease.
    Another recent study showed that the resveratrol in red wine can help prevent age-related memory declines. The study, which comes out of the Texas A&M Health Science Center College of Medicine, points to the positive effects of red wine’s resveratrol on the hippocampus.

    (This is from the Natural News website. For some reason I cannot post a link.)
    And I don’t want to hear any niggling from science denying paid shills of Big Pharma and Big Water.
    This is absolutely undeniable totally proven settled science from experts.
    But aside from this, we’re doomed.

  26. Cofrestrfa Brofiant Cymru
    Rhosllanerchrygog78
    Here’s one reason: more people can get wine.
    University of Reading Department of Food and Nutritional Sciences Professor Jeremy Spencer said: “These exciting results illustrate for the first time that the moderate consumption of champagne has the potential to influence cognitive functioning, such as memory.”
    Previous studies from the same university found that drinking two glasses of champagne per day could help your heart and circulation, and even decrease the risk of stroke and cardiovascular disease.
    Another recent study showed that the resveratrol in red wine can help prevent age-related memory declines. The study, which comes out of the Texas A&M Health Science Center College of Medicine, points to the positive effects of red wine’s resveratrol on the hippocampus.

    (This is from the Natural News website. For some reason I cannot post a link.)
    And I don’t want to hear any niggling from science denying paid shills of Big Pharma and Big Water.
    This is absolutely undeniable totally proven settled science from experts.
    But aside from this, we’re doomed.

    • Sorry about the repetition. For some reason, my comments were not shown, so I got the impression that something had gone wrong with the system.

  27. Parasites are still a serious problem. For example politicians who give $500,000/20 minute speeches paid for by people who want 100x return in grants and trade deals, often paid in U.S. taxpayer dollars.
    How about international banksters who can’t make much from profitably run old U.S. industries, who once needed bank financing to get started, but paid off their loans decades ago,, and can self-finance expansions today? So banksters decided to fund startups in China which offered huge returns, because factories there had super-low costs, primarily in labor wages and minuscule medical-care costs for 20-30-something aged young and vigorous workers, vs.U.S.’s 40-50-60-something aged worn and tired out workers.
    The U.S. international-trade deficit has been based on our reliance on Middle East, Latin American, and African mineral energy imports, combined with increased imports of cheap Asian goods, and declining U.S. factory-product exports for products (laid down in 1940’s UN founding vision) not supplying Americans’ massively-expanded desire for factory-produced goods.
    With fracking and massive coal reserves, we could be independent of foreign-source mineral energy, and working with Canada and Australia, we could obtain all the mineral resources we want to make all we need and want in consumer products. Americans have been hornswaggled by “experts” who say, “The deindustrialization of America, the closure of making things in America is best, by which we mean is best for us top 1%ers, screw the American workers who make things..”

  28. Why is it that when something bad happens, or when they think something bad might happen in the future, it’s all automatically blamed on anthropomorphic global warming. But when something good happens the scientists just shrug their shoulders and say that they just don’t know.

  29. Not everyone is pleased.
    The Humanity haters are beside themselves.
    Consider this 1988 quote from Prince Charles,
    the “genius” who would be king.:

    In the event that I am reincarnated, I would like to return as a deadly virus, in order to contribute something to solve overpopulation.

    .
    What a lovable guy.

  30. I’ve got a less cheery explanation.
    I live in one of the “wealthy countries” mentioned in the comments. And for the past 30 months I’ve been without a personal physician, although I have both government and corporate medical coverage. I’ve been on a waiting list for a personal physician for 18 months, and am told it may take three to five years more to reach the front of the line. I’m not holding my breath though, since I have an official medical file that runs over 700 pdf pages (just up to three years ago), that is full of errors, that legally can only by corrected by the physician I fired 30 months ago (in another jurisdiction), is out of chronological order, and is mostly unsearchable because the first 22 years of it consist of hand-scribbled notes, and because even recently reported lab results are so poorly printed as to be unreadable by OCR.
    But hey! Here’s the good news. Since my chronic gastrointestinal, neurological, and urological diseases (the first two resulting from long-term mismanagement of the third) have not been monitored for 30 months, I’m statistically disease free…Hurray! And since I’m getting on in years, I could well go to my grave perfectly “healthy”.
    So let’s not forget the essential caution about statistics: garbage in garbage out!

  31. I’m 69 years old. My father and grandfather all died at a young age from heart attacks. And I look just like my father. I think cholesterol tests and statin drugs are part of the reason for a longer life. Plus aerobics help too. My first retirement was from the Army. Running was a habit they got me into — still run. Another thing that helps, I think, is many of us guzzle coffee, which is the “Elixir of Life” (but it does do a job on one’s stomach now and then). However, I feel that, when your time’s up, you’re times up, no matter how healthy you are.

  32. While the last of the “greatest” with a small “g” generation dies off overdosed with a plethora of synthetic drugs in their systems, the baby boomers forced to take their health into their own hands or die off in the numbers now effecting many in our society, we like Japan, the healthiest nation in the world because it practices the higher levels of preventive and alternatives medicines, are changing our medical system and the food chain. Taking Chemo and Radiation are like voting for the lessor of two evils. you still get evil, actually you die about 97 percent of the time.

  33. Well, I’ve been “on” about quality of drinking water lately, especially since the Gold King Mine rupture, and I do have some general results which I shall back up by figures:
    Googling:
    “water supply getting better” yields about 8,630,000 results (0.61 seconds)
    “water supply getting worse” yields about 1,360,000 results (0.73 seconds)
    Conclusion: Good news travels slower than bad news even when there is more of it.
    This seems to reinforce your basic premise that bad news abounds; I’m still concerned about our water.

  34. Perhaps applicable here, “Evan Sayet – Kindergarden of Eden”
    Many subjects touched on including the fact that many more ‘unintelligent’ people are able to survive today compared to even 75 years ago due to a great number of factors.

  35. ristvan
    July 10, 2016 at 2:31 pm wrote:
    “…IMO google search has changed the world. Books, patents, images, technical papers all a few clicks away for free. What woild have taken days or have been impossible now takes minutes…”
    Strange. I remember search engines that supported boolean searches, where you could actually target a search minutely and find JUST what you were seeking. Google gives you a list, often entirely irrelevant. Searching for anything using normal phrase construction is next to impossible.
    There are still search engines that support boolean searches, but they’ve been deprived of substance by Google’s superior marketing might.
    As for the “free” part, I’ve stopped counting the number of my searches that ended in demands for an extravagant payment for a small snippet of information. And let’s not forget the web cleaners, or have you never encountered evidence of their work, busily and thoroughly removing all traces of once well-publicized reports from the WEB?
    There once was a thing called the usenet, with some unmoderated forums that were meant to keep a permanent archive of all posts. Some of that material survives, but Facebook has killed that source of documentation too, trivializing all discussion into a running stream that can’t be searched, after “archiving” all of the foregoing group discussions so thoroughly that even those who posted to them can’t retrieve their own posts anymore.

    • Reply to otropogo ==> eGads, you must be as old as me! coding vi for file and text manipulation and transmogrification…..regular expression searches across huge folders of files on remote servers, Bulletin Boards, retrieving email with scripts over telephone lines…..

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